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Local Economic and Business Performance_ and Our Prospects

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					Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                    www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                              Local Performance and Prospects for Growth




    Local Economic and Business 
            Performance, 
    and Our Prospects for Growth 
                                            Adam Peacock
                                     Principal Development Officer
                                    Research and Information Team
                                      Lincolnshire County Council
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                    www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                              Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Unemployment
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


      Business Performance – Sales/Orders
 Increase



 Stay the
  Same




Decrease
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


            Business Performance - Exports

 Increase



 Stay the
  Same




Decrease
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


            Business Performance - Profitability

 Increase



 Stay the
  Same




Decrease
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


        Business Performance - Turnover

 Increase



 Stay the
  Same




Decrease
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


      Business Performance - Workforce
 Increase



 Stay the
  Same




Decrease
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


       Business Performance - Cashflow
 Increase



 Stay the
  Same




Decrease
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                       www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                 Local Performance and Prospects for Growth



   Local Labour Market Indicators
Indicator                                        No.       % England (%)
Working age people                            627,000
Working age people in employment              447,000      71                        70
Employees                                     385,700      87                        87

Self employed                                  59,800      13                        13

Not in employment                             180,000      29                        30

Economically inactive                         143,100      23                        23
Economically inactive who want a job           35,800      25                        24
Economically inactive who do not want a job   107,400      75                        76

                                                   Source: Annual Population Survey
    Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                   www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                        Skills Levels
                           % of the working age population with NVQ level 3+




%




                                                                      Source: Annual Population Survey
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                              www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Population data
- Population has increased from approximately 960,000 to 
1,040,000

- Population has grown by 9% over the last decade 
compared to 8% nationally

                                            




                                               Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                      Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


         Active Enterprises per 10,000 population




                                    Source: Office of National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                             www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                    Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                       Wage Levels

                                                 £2,836


                                    £3,277




                                               Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                              www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                     Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Economic Value




                                              Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                       www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                               Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    GVA per head




                                                 Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                             www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                       Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


   What we said back in March 2012
• A lagging economy when based on GVA per head, but 
  positive signs in the last 4/5 years

• Other measures put the Greater Lincolnshire economy 
  on a more positive footing

• Wage and qualification levels improving

• Emerging industries (e.g. environmental technologies, 
  renewables)

• Ageing population presents opportunities
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                    Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


    What about now and in to the future?
- Back into recession (double dip)

- Economic uncertainty

- Conference season

- Cashflow / lending problems persist

- Longer term forecast is one of growth
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                           www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                    Local Performance and Prospects for Growth



                Real UK GDP 2005=100




                                       Source: Office for National Statistics
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                                       www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                              Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                     Looking Ahead

                                    Actual data




                                                                                    Forecast




                                                  Source: Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                              www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


    Where is this growth going to come from?

  Looking to the future, the Greater Lincolnshire LEP 
  prospectus highlights a number of growth or most 
  important sectors for the Greater Lincolnshire economy:

  -Agri-food
  -Manufacturing / Engineering 
  -Visitor Economy
  -Care
  -Ports & Logistics
  -Renewables
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                               www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                         Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


        Agri-Food Key Facts & Stats
- Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area
- Strategically important both locally, nationally and 
  internationally
- Covers primary production, food processing, wholesale, 
  and retail (plus activities around agricultural engineering 
  and packaging)
- Employs approximately 78,000 people
- 18% of total employment compared to 10% nationally
- Generates approximately 11% of total economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                                        www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                                Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                          Agri-Food



                    Actual data                  Forecast




                       Source: Office for National Statistics, Defra Agricultural Survey, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                          www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                    Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


   Engineering Key Facts & Stats
- Has a number of strong growth sectors
- Employs approximately 14,500 people
- 3% of total employment in line with 
  national average
- Generates approximately 4% of total 
  economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                              www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                      Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Engineering




                    Actual data          Forecast




                                     Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                      www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Visitor Economy
- Distinctive feature of the Greater 
  Lincolnshire area

- Employs approximately 39,400 people

- 9% of total employment compared to 10% 
  nationally

- Generates approximately 4% of total 
  economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                                www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                        Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Visitor Economy
                    Actual data             Forecast




                                       Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                 www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                           Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Care
- Covers hospital, medical and dental 
  practice, and social work activities

- Employs approximately 59,600 people

- 14% of total employment compared to 
  12% nationally

- Generates approximately 9% of total 
  economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                             www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                     Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                         Care
                    Actual data         Forecast




                                    Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                    www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                              Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                Ports & Logistics
- Distinctive feature of the Greater 
  Lincolnshire area

- Employs approximately 17,300 people

- 4% of total employment compared to 2% 
  nationally 

- Generates approximately 4% of total 
  economic value
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                                             www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                                                     Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                Ports & Logistics
                    Actual data         Forecast




                                    Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                   www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                             Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    Renewables
- Emerging industry and difficult to measure

- Data suggests substantial growth

- Approx 150 companies engaged in renewable energy 
  and environmental activities across the area.

- Activities range from installers of solar PV panels, to 
  plastics recycling and manufacturers of electric car 
  batteries.

- The LRO is lobbying for a government definition of the 
  sector
Lincolnshire Research Observatory                                   www.research-lincs.org.uk 

                                             Local Performance and Prospects for Growth


                                    In Summary
• In the short term the national and local economies face 
  continued uncertainty and a number of challenges to 
  growth

• Longer term prospects are better, and locally certain 
  sectors present real potential

• Longer term challenges remain, particularly around skills 
  and our traditional industries

				
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posted:6/18/2013
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