OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT MINISTRY OF STATE FOR SPECIAL PROGRAMMES WESTERN KENYA COMMUNITY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT AND FLOOD MITIGATION PROJECT ( WKCDD & FMP) FLOOD DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECASTING CENTRE (FDFC) NZOIA BASIN DAILY FLOOD WATCH UPDATE Date of Issue: 2nd November 2009 Issue No: Validity: 2nd to 3rd November 2009 FDFC02NOV09 Summary The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates moderate rainfall is likely to fall over the basin while the stream flow forecasting model indicates that the water level at Rwambwa is likely to fall to about 0.76m which is below the alert warning level. No risk of flooding is expected within the forecast period. Water levels at Rwambwa Bridge RGS Date Level (m) Trend Flood Risk Category KEY Today’s Morning water level 0.86 Falling High Flood Risk Forecast 2nd Nov. 09 0.86 Constant Moderate Flood Risk water levels 3rd Nov. 09 0.76 Falling No Flood Risk Flood Risk Indicators and forecast for the Nzoia River Basin Section 1: Rainfall (mm) patterns and forecast The figure to the right shows the rainfall patterns on 1st November 2009. Light rainfall was re- ceived over the entire basin. The areal rainfall is 0.0mm which is a decrease from the previous days’ 0.6mm. The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indi- cates the basin is likely to receive moderate rain- fall. Classification of point rainfall on the grid map Range Category <5 mm light 5-15 mm moderate > 15 mm heavy This Bulletin has been produced by Western Kenya Community Driven Development & Flood Mitigation Project of Ministry of State for Special Programmes in the Office of the President in collaboration with the Kenya Mete- orological Department (KMD) For more information and enquiries contact the National Project Coordinator, Tel: 250645/50 email: email@example.com Section 2: Current and Forecast Water Levels of Nzoia River near Rwambwa Bridge A plot of observed water levels is shown in green in the chart below while the blue inverted bars represent daily areal rainfall over the Nzoia Basin. The areal rainfall on 1st November is 0.0mm which is a decrease from the previous days’ 0.6mm. The rainfall forecast indicates moderate rainfall is expected in the basin. It is anticipated that the river level at Rwambwa will fall to about 0.76m in the next 24 hours. The brown line shows the water level at the same time in 2008. The purple line in the plot shows the model forecast level at Rwambwa river gauge station. No flooding is expected within the forecast period. FLOOD FORECAST CHART 7.0 0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 2.0 2.6 2.7 5 6.0 5.8 10 5.0 15 RAINFALL(MM) 20 4.0 LEVEL (M) 20.2 25 3.0 30 2.0 35 40 0.85 0.76 1.0 45 0.0 50 24-Oct-09 25-Oct-09 26-Oct-09 27-Oct-09 28-Oct-09 29-Oct-09 30-Oct-09 31-Oct-09 1-Nov-09 2-Nov-09 3-Nov-09 DATE RAINFALL FLOOD WARNING FORECAST 2009 FLOOD ALERT 2008 Notes for readers a) Areal Rainfall b) Water levels Descrip- Range Flood risk Remark Range Category tion Colour codes <5 mm light Flood warn- ≥3.5 m Above this point flooding can occur de- ing level pending on strength of the dykes 5-15 mm moderate Alert levels 2.8 -3.5 Watch—closer monitoring of level varia- m tions > 15 mm heavy No flood risk < 2.8 m Safe This Bulletin has been produced by Western Kenya Community Driven Development & Flood Mitigation Project of Ministry of State for Special Programmes in the Office of the President in collaboration with the Kenya Mete- orological Department (KMD). For more information and enquiries contact the National Project Coordinator, Tel: 250645/50 email: firstname.lastname@example.org Disclaimers 1. WKCDD&FMP does not claim authority on any boundaries in the used maps. 2. While extreme care is exercised in accuracy in data collection, analysis and interpretation, users should seek authority for further intended uses of the information.
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