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HUGE, record crops of wheat, maize and soyabean are on their way according to the keenly awaited first view of the new 2013/14 season from the US Department of Agriculture.
Digital Re-print - May | June 2013 Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013 Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom. All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. ©Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872 www.gfmt.co.uk GLOBAL GRAIN & FEED MARKETS Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of commodities used in food and feed production. His observations will influence your decision-making. New crop forecasts keep on growing So why have H UGE, record crops of wheat, maize lack of rain and it remains quite feasible that their prices – which and soyabean are on their way combined output could be over rated by USDA according to the keenly awaited first by as much as 6m to 8m tonnes. are still relatively view of the new 2013/14 season from Some analysts also have their reservations the US Department of Agriculture. toward USDA’s EU crop forecast of 138.8m high compared USDA’s big supply numbers have surprised many tonnes (+6.7m on year) amid too much rain in in the trade, implying more than enough of all northwestern member states and some heat and with their past ten the major grain and feed raw materials to meet dryness issues already being reported in some considerable growth in world demand during the eastern/southern countries. Australia (seen or twenty year year ahead. +2.5m) has also had some problems with lack Moreover, if USDA is right, the low coarse grain of rain in key states and could yet end up with a averages – stayed and oilseed stocks that have characterized the similar or smaller crop that last year’s.The USA world market for the past season can be rebuilt also continues to suffer problems with drought in more or less ‘range- to more comfortable levels while already adequate its key hard red winter wheat belt, normally the wheat stocks will also get a useful top-up. largest source of wheat for this the world’s largest bound’ rather than So why have prices – which are still relatively exporter - although the USDA’s 56m tonne total high compared with their past ten or twenty year US wheat crop forecast has probably already been collapsed since averages – stayed more or less ‘range-bound’ rather fully factored in by the market in recent months. than collapsed since these ample supply outlooks On the other hand, Canada and Argentina should these ample supply were touted in mid-May? The answer may be, ‘give have bigger crops on larger sown areas while India it time – and favourable weather.’ seems to be heading for at least its second largest outlooks were Certainly at this early stage there are various crop ever. reasons to be cautious toward these bearish supply Even if world wheat output only rises by, say, touted in mid-May? numbers. Wheat output, for example, has been 30m tonnes, the concentration of extra supplies in forecast to rebound from last year’s disappointing exporting countries suggests a more competitive 655.6m to 701m tonnes – 21m more than the market ahead in the search for import custom. International Grains Council’s preliminary forecast Wheat trade may decline slightly in 2013/14 due to issued in late April and 6m more than the UN bigger domestic crops in some importing countries Food & Agriculture Organization predicted two like Turkey and Morocco and ‘swing’ importers of days before the USDA forecasts. feedwheat turning back to more abundant maize. Of the lat ter ’s 45.5m tonne global year-on year increase, a full 30m tonnes is down to expected wheat crop recoveries in the former Soviet Union, where yields were devastated in some regions last year by prolonged drought and heatwaves. Yet Russian and Ukrainian crops have had numerous problems during the winter and spring from frosts to 52 | may - June 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy COMMODITIES World consumption of wheat is seen 20m r ather than tonnes higher next season but increases will be those of maize concentrated within big producing countries rising). – especially Europe, India and Russia. Overall, Despite the world stocks are still expected to increase by better supply about 6m tonnes to 186m, equal to about outlook, as we go to press CBOT wheat futures market. London feedwheat futures 26.8% of consumption or 14 weeks’ supply – a futures are showing price premiums on the – which have actually been running close to far looser ratio than that expected for maize, forward months ranging up to 7% more for parity with better quality French milling wheat for which both USDA and the futures markets March 2014. The price situation is reversed on some positions – look rather over-priced, forecast prices far lower than those of wheat in Europe, however, where new crop bread especially given the discounts being quoted in the season ahead (an anomaly that will wheat prices are shown about 14% cheaper on new crop wheat and maize from the Black probably be resolved by wheat prices falling than spot delivery on the Paris milling wheat Sea region. 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I t 16.5% of consumption or just over 8½-week’s may we ll b e supply. too pessimistic, Among the other coarse grains, consumers bearing in mind are promised a better balanced barley market that USDA if crops increase as expected by 8m to a total forecast Brazil’s 138m tonnes, mainly in Russia (up almost 2012 /13 cr op 4m and the EU (plus 1m). Although barley at 67m and has starting stocks for the new season will be now raised that lower, a limited increase in demand (mainly to 76m (whereas within Russia) is expected to allow these to One concern, especially for the UK, remains Brazil’s government and at least one private recover somewhat during 2013/14. Along with the adequacy of quality wheat supplies. If this estimate suggests 78m tonnes. the bigger competing supplies of wheat and year’s UK crop drops again as feared after a Consumption of maize is expected to maize this should held keep prices down for tough winter (USDA says 13% down at 11.55m increase in 2013/14 by almost 73m tonnes feed barley users. but some in the trade have been talking 20% of which 31.4m will be within the US itself Sorghum supplies are also seen substantially losses) then clearly more imports will be as the feed and ethanol industries (+23.5m higher in 2013/14 – plus about 5m, largely needed. and 6.4m tonnes usage respectively) respond due to much bigger sowings in the USA. How costly that may be depends on to much looser supplies and much cheaper Although a lot of this will go to its domestic European and other crop weather in coming prices. USDA forecasts a seasonal ex-farm feed consumption, there will be more available weeks and months. If Germany and France get price range of $4.30/5.10 per bushel compared for export too. enough sunshine to generate good proteins, with this season’s $6.70/7.15, the median point A big jump in world soyabean output in the Hagbergs etc in their wheat and if Canadian down by almost 32% (new crop Chicago maize coming season is expected to result in much and Australian crops perform as planned, this futures suggest need not necessarily add up to soaring bread p r i ce s a b o u t prices ahead. 2 5 % cheaper For maize, USDA has taken a fairly than current old optimistic view of US 2013 crop prospects crop deliveries). which it puts at 359m tonnes, near the top Following the end of the range within which most trade pattern of recent forecasts fall (340/360m with a few 370 out- years, the next riders). Some caution is required for this biggest increase figure as rains and cold weather have put in global maize sowing weeks behind normal across the US consumption is Corn Belt. That may result in some designated expected within maize land being sown to soybeans instead C hina w he r e and it may also – if these delays continue into demand goes up June – start to have a significant impact in by 17m tonnes, lower yield potential. No-one wants to take mainly in its feed industry to a new record cheaper prices for oilmeal proteins across a 360m tonne or higher crop for granted after 224m. the board. This year has already seen record what happened last year when drought cut Other country increases in maize use are crops in South America, where production over 100m tonnes off USDA’s early 376m mainly one million tonnes or less. has increased by 32m tonnes or almost 29%. tonnes prediction. European maize consumption is not The new season is expected to see more The US forecast accounts for no less expected to rise because of the bigger wheat beans sown in the USA which could also than 78.5% of USDA’s foreseen increase in crop taking more feed demand. This situation produce its biggest ever crop. USDA’s first global production (+109m to a new record should also allow Europe to reduce maize forecast is 92.3m tonnes – up 10m on the 966m tonnes). The remaining increases are imports from this season’s record 10.5m to year, if normal weather allows trend yields. 7m tonnes. A bigger USDA also expects Brazil and Argentina to Mexican crop will also keep increasing output, resulting in world reduce that country’s production increasing by another 16.4m import needs by 1m tonnes. This would put world supply in surplus tonnes but USDA for two successive seasons and, on current still expects overall estimates, add about 20m tonnes to the stock world maize trade carried over from one season to the next – to increase by about also a record level. 4m tonnes as China Currently, USDA is forecasting new season’s increases impor ts US producer prices of soyabeans will average in by that amount and a range of $9.50/10.50 per bushel – the mean some other maize being about 26.5% below the average for the mainly down to the EU crop recovering by importers, largely in Asia, avail themselves of past season. Soya meal ex-US crushing mill is 7.1m tonnes, CIS crops up by a combined cheaper export supplies. seen averaging in a range of $280/320 per 7m tonnes, China’s rising 4m and Serbia’s by The bottom line for maize – if USDA’s crop short tonne (2,000 lb), the mean representing 3.5m tonnes. Interestingly, USDA has Brazil’s estimates hold good – is for substantial surplus, a drop of 29% on the current season. The crop retreating from this year’s record 76m pushing US seasonal ending stocks back to Chicago soya meal futures market also sees to 72m tonnes – the only major decline. This a nine-year high of 50.9m tonnes and world prices dropping by about 26% from current supposes more Brazilian emphasis on soybeans carryover to a 13-year peak of 154.6m – about levels by the end of the year. 54 | may - June 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy FEATURE COMMODITIES Flour Milling Training World oilseed production is also expected US crop. Much of that to get a top up from larger sunflower and extra demand for US rapeseed crops, adding about 5.5m tonnes soya came from the more to steps to success Seven total supplies and expanding total top imporInternationally recognised distance learning programme ● ter China world oilseed carryover stocks to a record although this pressure is ● Developed for millers by industry professionals 82.6m tonnes. The EU should see a modest slackening as, like other Safety, Health and Hygiene uptick in its rapeseed crop but may be able buyers, it starts to focus ● Studied to avail itself of more imports from larger instead on cheaper newevery year by hundreds of millers worldwide crops in Ukraine, Russia and Australia. The crop offers. Wheat and the Screenroom CIS countries also expect a big hike in their Soya will get cheaper sunflower seed crops. An indispensable tool for developing the knowledge and as the year rolls on, competence Soya markets have actually been stronger demanding prices of of flour millers and their colleagues. and Performance Mill Processes several reasons. other less-valuable oilmeals like rape and food supply (rice as well as grains and oilseeds) over the past two months for and stubbornly process, A clear presentation of the industry andweak crude oil and metal Brazil’s harvest has been delayed by weather sunflower meal follow suit. and transport/port infrastructure problems This glowing picture for forward supply prices ensuing from macro-economic issues Product Handling, in 7 modules. handling record crops, not only of soybeas must of course be hedged with the obvious including sluggish economic growth in the US, Storage and Distribution but of maize and sugarcane too. Argentine caveat. It is only May as this review goes to China and the Euro zone. That all suggests Dedicated tutor support given to every student, providing suppliers have also been slower to move press and the weather could yet spoil things lower raw material costs on the way, especially professional guidance throughout the course year. their cropFlourthe markets expected due by the time northern hemisphere wheat and for the feed industry. than to high inflation encouraging hoarding and a barley is harvested in Jun, July and August and poor exchange rate reducing the real income maize and soybeans from late August onward. from exports sold in dollars. Although South 2013 Course Guide Power and Automation However, at this stage, the ‘outside’ KEY FACTORS AHEAD – American exports of both beans and meal interests is available for download on the www.nabimtraining.com that have helped exaggerate price WHEAT in recent years don’t appear in 2013-14 course session should be have now begun to pick up, the earlier delays strength website. Enrolmentsto be drive a lot Flour Milling Management interested in weather risk and seem to be • Those big Black Sea crop estimates are of unexpected import demand to – by August. submitted – online or by email, fax or postby the week, implying a US shores and the resultant strong exports taking USDA’s vaunted season of plenty at looking more likely of both beans and meal resulted in crushers face value. Hedge funds, pension funds, banks surge in export competition during the next To investors are also reported and shippers competing for a supply that and otherenrol or find out more, contact: to be few months. It is hard not to see this helping nabim 21 Arlington Streetshor t of expectations +44 (0)20 fairly 2521 Fax: +44of commodities email: email@example.com www.nabimtraining.com had already fallen London SW1A 1RN UK Tel: taking a 7493 negative view (0)20 7493 6785 to bring down wheat prices on world and 2 after last year’s somewhat disappointing in general amid the better outlook for world EU markets. CIMBRIA.COM STORAGE SOLUTIONS UTMOST CONTROL AND CARE ENSURES OPTIMAL STORAGE At Cimbria, we think of treatment and technology for every part and detail. We possess valuable knowhow and experience gained through more than 60 years of global activities. And together with our thorough knowledge of crop handling and processes, this contributes to a suc- cessful storage solution. A/S CIMBRIA Faartoftvej 22 | 7700 Thisted DENMARK | Phone: +45 96 17 90 00 firstname.lastname@example.org CONVEYING | DRYING | SEED PROCESSING | ELECTRONIC SORTING | STORAGE | TURNKEY Grain &feed millinG technoloGy may - June 2013 | 39 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy may - June 2013 | 55 EXPERIENCE • Plenty of sunny days are now needed to bring late European, US, Canadian and crop the US ends up with, there will be less need for US maize exports than usual. EDUCATIONAL QUICK CONNECT ® CIS crops on and good har vest weather to maintain breadmaking quality. There are some qualms about late sowing of • • India may continue to contribute more to world export supplies of maize If Europe’s own maize crop rebounds as SESSION spring wheat in the USA – one of the major sources of these high quali t y • expected, import requirements will decline US corn consumption for ethanol is forecast RECORDINGS breadwheats. However, Canada, a much higher in 2013/14 but that can be comfortably larger supplier, does now seem to be accommodated if the forecast US crop comes getting its sowing done under adequate through. US maize ethanol use may also be FROM IAOM’S moisture conditions on a much larger area restrained by larger imports of cheap ethanol installation friendly and will probably have one of its largest from a record Brazilian sugarcane crop 2013 ANNUAL perfect ﬁtting crops ever. Australia – with its impor tant • China continues manage its constantly shock explosion proof CONFERENCE tight ‘prime hard’ wheat production – is also growing feed demand with larger crops of solid getting some much needed rains to plant its own but it is expected to impor t more THROUGH clean easy to THE easy expandable after some nail-biting dr y days in recent in 2013/14. It has been buying recently and IAOM LIVE weeks. • India faces storage problems as another near larger than expected amounts going in this direction could make US markets frisky as ® QUICK CONNECT pull-ring more time- efﬁcientLEARNING during assembly. record crop nears with warehouses already purchases are anounced CENTER INSTALLATION FRIENDLY and easy overflowing. The solution – to drop export price ambitions rather than watch quality spoil • Speculators’ enthusiasm to buy into any crop weather problems. This is becoming less of to dismantle. under open storage – could mean downward a factor as the big crop numbers mentioned PERFECT FITTING in long durability pressure on world wheat export prices – above start to look attainable while the with top Recordings are quality – that is our pipework just as the traditional cheap sellers – the CIS ‘managed money' community becomes and distribution system. countries - gear up to sell their large crops increasingly disillusioned with diminishing complimentary abroad returns from commodity investments in for all PROOF SHOCK EXPLOSION 2013 safely JACOB pipework Conference • World wheat trade might be depressed by general – from gold to oil. As we go to press Annual system. larger than usual crops in Morocco, Turkey, the regular report of US fund investments in attendees as well as TIGHT connection for our pipework Egypt and other Nor th African/Middle the top 11 commodity futures markets there IAOM members. systems. eastern countries. Also, Iran now seems shows a 15% drop to its lowest level in six SOLID and precise in case of retroﬁtting. to have completed a massive stockbuilding weeks. programme and may import 5m tonnes less EASY TO CLEAN and easy replaceable. next season. This is all likely to weigh further OILMEALS/PROTEINS on prices. • Will the US get its soyabean crop planted EASY EXPANDABLE by variability of our • The extent to which wheat use in feeds is on time and may it pick up some extra modular system. reduced if maize crops recover as planned. acreage from delayed maize planting? If Visit us at POWTECH 2013 That also depends on price. Wheat cannot it does, soya prices will be under fur ther April 23 rd-25 th, Germany, hall 5, possibly sustain the big price premiums downward pressure into the last quar ter booth 5-348, powtech.de over maize signaled on the forward CBOT of 2013 futures markets and still compete with • Planting and growing weather in the USA. A EUROPE’S NO. 1 IN PIPEWORK SYSTEMS maize in feeds – either in the US or in later sown crop has plenty of moisture at this The QUICK CONNECT ® pull-ring makes global markets. stage. It looks likely to be a big one the acclaimed Jacob modular pipe system • South America’s delayed marketing of record even more economical for installation. MAIZE crops means more competition well into the softconference.com/IAOM In new plants for animal feed, pharma- ceuticals, chemicals, food, glass, semi- • Will the US manage to plant all its planned USA’s peak, post-harvest marketing period. conductors or environmental technology area on time to avoid ceding land to later- That suggests more downward pressure on as well as for upgrading existing layouts sown soybeans or some yield penalty? soya costs. user-friendly system installation becomes precise and easy due to the great versatility Current pointers suggest it could fall 1m to • Chinese demand for soya meal is expected of mass-produced pipe components. 1.5m acres short. Yet all the moisture holding to grow below its long term trend in up sowing of the last 25% is a wonderful 2013/14 but its demand for beans could ORIGINAL QUALITY TO A MODULAR start for the young crop, an early pointer to rocket as its domestic crop continues to DESIGN Straight welded, lipped-end pipes and bumper yields. shrink. It remains far and away the largest components. • Will US farmers get a ‘normal’ summer? The destination for US and global soyabean ø 60 mm to ø 800 mm in a standard first, possibly most important hurdle is mild/ expor ts range. warm rather than hot weather during the • Final EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflower seed Up to ø 400 mm normally dispatched key pollination period. With later sowings, and Canadian canola plantings - and their immediately from stock. Larger than ø 350 mm also available the ‘reproductive’ phase may be a few weeks crop weather. Af ter a delayed star t, with ﬂange connection. later in many areas, deeper into the period of Canada’s rapeseed crop could go either Powder coated steel or hot-dipped gal- summer heat risk. way while Australia’s may decline after vanised steel as well as stainless steel. • Delayed marketing of Latin American maize rapid growth in recent years. The EU’s 1-3 mm wall thicknesses. Larger diameters / special requirements crops means these will be competing with crop may be slightly bigger. At the end of upon request. the US into the latter’s new season, starting the day, though, rapeseed, sunseed and Shock-explosion certiﬁed pipes and September 1 – later than usual. other oilmeal costs will have to follow components available. • CIS countries have a much larger maize crop market leader soya’s probable downward Fr. Jacob Söhne GmbH & Co. KG, Germany on the way and will be cheap sellers. Whatever path. Tel. + 49 (0)571 95580 | jacob-pipesystems.eu 56 | may - June 2013 513459_GrainFeed_47x270_gb_4c_RZ.indd 126.03.13 11:19 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy FEATURE A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 CALLING ALL PRODUCERS! innOVaTiOn DisTinguishes BeTween a leaDer anD a FOllOwer. Get the industry’s longest standing title delivered Apply now for the G.A.P. Awards 2013 —Steve Jobs direct to your door, six Deadline: 31 July 2013 times a year with a GFMT you going to navigate the ever-changing dietary landscape? How are Visit our website for more details: www.globalgap.org IN PRINT subscription Today’s dietary demands are literally all over the board. While some consumers are demanding nutritious foods that are quick and easy to March - April 2012 prepare, others desire protein-rich food that fits a low-carb or vegetar- 2012 ry - Februa January • Assessing cereal quality parameters ue : & ian lifestyle. 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