Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013 by GFMT


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									                             Digital Re-print -
                             May | June 2013
     Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013

Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.
All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
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                                  GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
                                       Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
                                     world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
                                   commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
                                                  will influence your decision-making.

                          New crop forecasts keep on growing
         So why have

                                       UGE, record crops of wheat, maize         lack of rain and it remains quite feasible that their
        prices – which                 and soyabean are on their way             combined output could be over rated by USDA
                                       according to the keenly awaited first     by as much as 6m to 8m tonnes.
   are still relatively                view of the new 2013/14 season from          Some analysts also have their reservations
                          the US Department of Agriculture.                      toward USDA’s EU crop forecast of 138.8m
      high compared           USDA’s big supply numbers have surprised many      tonnes (+6.7m on year) amid too much rain in
                          in the trade, implying more than enough of all         northwestern member states and some heat and
 with their past ten      the major grain and feed raw materials to meet         dryness issues already being reported in some
                          considerable growth in world demand during the         eastern/southern countries. Australia (seen
      or twenty year      year ahead.                                            +2.5m) has also had some problems with lack
                              Moreover, if USDA is right, the low coarse grain   of rain in key states and could yet end up with a
  averages – stayed       and oilseed stocks that have characterized the         similar or smaller crop that last year’s.The USA
                          world market for the past season can be rebuilt        also continues to suffer problems with drought in
more or less ‘range-      to more comfortable levels while already adequate      its key hard red winter wheat belt, normally the
                          wheat stocks will also get a useful top-up.            largest source of wheat for this the world’s largest
 bound’ rather than           So why have prices – which are still relatively    exporter - although the USDA’s 56m tonne total
                          high compared with their past ten or twenty year       US wheat crop forecast has probably already been
       collapsed since    averages – stayed more or less ‘range-bound’ rather    fully factored in by the market in recent months.
                          than collapsed since these ample supply outlooks          On the other hand, Canada and Argentina should
these ample supply        were touted in mid-May? The answer may be, ‘give       have bigger crops on larger sown areas while India
                          it time – and favourable weather.’                     seems to be heading for at least its second largest
       outlooks were          Certainly at this early stage there are various    crop ever.
                          reasons to be cautious toward these bearish supply        Even if world wheat output only rises by, say,
touted in mid-May?        numbers. Wheat output, for example, has been           30m tonnes, the concentration of extra supplies in
                          forecast to rebound from last year’s disappointing     exporting countries suggests a more competitive
                          655.6m to 701m tonnes – 21m more than the              market ahead in the search for import custom.
                          International Grains Council’s preliminary forecast       Wheat trade may decline slightly in 2013/14 due to
                          issued in late April and 6m more than the UN           bigger domestic crops in some importing countries
                          Food & Agriculture Organization predicted two          like Turkey and Morocco and ‘swing’ importers of
                          days before the USDA forecasts.                        feedwheat turning back to more abundant maize.
                              Of the lat ter ’s
                          45.5m tonne global
                          year-on year increase,
                          a full 30m tonnes is
                          down to expected
                          wheat crop recoveries
                          in the former Soviet
                          Union, where yields
                          were devastated in
                          some regions last year
                          by prolonged drought
                          and heatwaves. Yet
                          Russian and Ukrainian
                          crops have had
                          numerous problems
                          during the winter and
                          spring from frosts to

 52 | may - June 2013                                                                           Grain  &feed millinG technoloGy

    World consumption of wheat is seen 20m          r ather than
 tonnes higher next season but increases will be    those of maize
 concentrated within big producing countries        rising).
 – especially Europe, India and Russia. Overall,       Despite the
 world stocks are still expected to increase by     better supply
 about 6m tonnes to 186m, equal to about            outlook, as we go to press CBOT wheat                futures market. London feedwheat futures
 26.8% of consumption or 14 weeks’ supply – a       futures are showing price premiums on the            – which have actually been running close to
 far looser ratio than that expected for maize,     forward months ranging up to 7% more for             parity with better quality French milling wheat
 for which both USDA and the futures markets        March 2014. The price situation is reversed          on some positions – look rather over-priced,
 forecast prices far lower than those of wheat      in Europe, however, where new crop bread             especially given the discounts being quoted
 in the season ahead (an anomaly that will          wheat prices are shown about 14% cheaper             on new crop wheat and maize from the Black
 probably be resolved by wheat prices falling       than spot delivery on the Paris milling wheat        Sea region.

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 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                                      may - June 2013 | 53
                                                                                  nex t year. I t     16.5% of consumption or just over 8½-week’s
                                                                                  may we ll b e       supply.
                                                                                  too pessimistic,        Among the other coarse grains, consumers
                                                                                  bearing in mind     are promised a better balanced barley market
                                                                                  that USDA           if crops increase as expected by 8m to a total
                                                                                  forecast Brazil’s   138m tonnes, mainly in Russia (up almost
                                                                                  2012 /13 cr op      4m and the EU (plus 1m). Although barley
                                                                                  at 67m and has      starting stocks for the new season will be
                                                                                  now raised that     lower, a limited increase in demand (mainly
                                                                                  to 76m (whereas     within Russia) is expected to allow these to
   One concern, especially for the UK, remains    Brazil’s government and at least one private        recover somewhat during 2013/14. Along with
the adequacy of quality wheat supplies. If this   estimate suggests 78m tonnes.                       the bigger competing supplies of wheat and
year’s UK crop drops again as feared after a         Consumption of maize is expected to              maize this should held keep prices down for
tough winter (USDA says 13% down at 11.55m        increase in 2013/14 by almost 73m tonnes            feed barley users.
but some in the trade have been talking 20%       of which 31.4m will be within the US itself             Sorghum supplies are also seen substantially
losses) then clearly more imports will be         as the feed and ethanol industries (+23.5m          higher in 2013/14 – plus about 5m, largely
needed.                                           and 6.4m tonnes usage respectively) respond         due to much bigger sowings in the USA.
   How costly that may be depends on              to much looser supplies and much cheaper            Although a lot of this will go to its domestic
European and other crop weather in coming         prices. USDA forecasts a seasonal ex-farm           feed consumption, there will be more available
weeks and months. If Germany and France get       price range of $4.30/5.10 per bushel compared       for export too.
enough sunshine to generate good proteins,        with this season’s $6.70/7.15, the median point         A big jump in world soyabean output in the
Hagbergs etc in their wheat and if Canadian       down by almost 32% (new crop Chicago maize          coming season is expected to result in much
and Australian crops perform as planned, this     futures suggest
need not necessarily add up to soaring bread      p r i ce s a b o u t
prices ahead.                                     2 5 % cheaper
   For maize, USDA has taken a fairly             than current old
optimistic view of US 2013 crop prospects         crop deliveries).
which it puts at 359m tonnes, near the top           Following the
end of the range within which most trade          pattern of recent
forecasts fall (340/360m with a few 370 out-      years, the next
riders). Some caution is required for this        biggest increase
figure as rains and cold weather have put         in global maize
sowing weeks behind normal across the US          consumption is
Corn Belt. That may result in some designated     expected within
maize land being sown to soybeans instead         C hina w he r e
and it may also – if these delays continue into   demand goes up
June – start to have a significant impact in      by 17m tonnes,
lower yield potential. No-one wants to take       mainly in its feed industry to a new record         cheaper prices for oilmeal proteins across
a 360m tonne or higher crop for granted after     224m.                                               the board. This year has already seen record
what happened last year when drought cut             Other country increases in maize use are         crops in South America, where production
over 100m tonnes off USDA’s early 376m            mainly one million tonnes or less.                  has increased by 32m tonnes or almost 29%.
tonnes prediction.                                   European maize consumption is not                The new season is expected to see more
   The US forecast accounts for no less           expected to rise because of the bigger wheat        beans sown in the USA which could also
than 78.5% of USDA’s foreseen increase in         crop taking more feed demand. This situation        produce its biggest ever crop. USDA’s first
global production (+109m to a new record          should also allow Europe to reduce maize            forecast is 92.3m tonnes – up 10m on the
966m tonnes). The remaining increases are         imports from this season’s record 10.5m to          year, if normal weather allows trend yields.
                                                                            7m tonnes. A bigger       USDA also expects Brazil and Argentina to
                                                                            Mexican crop will also    keep increasing output, resulting in world
                                                                            reduce that country’s     production increasing by another 16.4m
                                                                            import needs by 1m        tonnes. This would put world supply in surplus
                                                                            tonnes but USDA           for two successive seasons and, on current
                                                                            still expects overall     estimates, add about 20m tonnes to the stock
                                                                            world maize trade         carried over from one season to the next –
                                                                            to increase by about      also a record level.
                                                                            4m tonnes as China           Currently, USDA is forecasting new season’s
                                                                            increases impor ts        US producer prices of soyabeans will average in
                                                                            by that amount and        a range of $9.50/10.50 per bushel – the mean
                                                                            some other maize          being about 26.5% below the average for the
mainly down to the EU crop recovering by          importers, largely in Asia, avail themselves of     past season. Soya meal ex-US crushing mill is
7.1m tonnes, CIS crops up by a combined           cheaper export supplies.                            seen averaging in a range of $280/320 per
7m tonnes, China’s rising 4m and Serbia’s by         The bottom line for maize – if USDA’s crop       short tonne (2,000 lb), the mean representing
3.5m tonnes. Interestingly, USDA has Brazil’s     estimates hold good – is for substantial surplus,   a drop of 29% on the current season. The
crop retreating from this year’s record 76m       pushing US seasonal ending stocks back to           Chicago soya meal futures market also sees
to 72m tonnes – the only major decline. This      a nine-year high of 50.9m tonnes and world          prices dropping by about 26% from current
supposes more Brazilian emphasis on soybeans      carryover to a 13-year peak of 154.6m – about       levels by the end of the year.

54 | may - June 2013                                                                                          Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

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     World oilseed production is also expected US crop. Much of that
  to get a top up from larger sunflower and extra demand for US
  rapeseed crops, adding about 5.5m tonnes soya came from the
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     Soya markets have actually been stronger demanding prices of of flour millers and their colleagues.
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  handling record crops, not only of soybeas must of course be hedged with the obvious including sluggish economic growth in the US,
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                                                          submitted – online or by email, fax or postby the week, implying a
  US shores and the resultant strong exports taking USDA’s vaunted season of plenty at           looking more likely
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    Grain   &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                      may - June 2013 | 39
    Grain   &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                      may - June 2013 | 55
           EXPERIENCE                                    • Plenty of sunny days are now needed to
                                                           bring late European, US, Canadian and
                                                                                                                  crop the US ends up with, there will be less
                                                                                                                  need for US maize exports than usual.

          EDUCATIONAL                QUICK CONNECT ®
                                                           CIS crops on and good har vest weather
                                                           to maintain breadmaking quality. There
                                                           are some qualms about late sowing of

                                                                                                                  India may continue to contribute more to
                                                                                                                  world export supplies of maize
                                                                                                                  If Europe’s own maize crop rebounds as

            SESSION                                        spring wheat in the USA – one of the
                                                           major sources of these high quali t y              •
                                                                                                                  expected, import requirements will decline
                                                                                                                  US corn consumption for ethanol is forecast

                                                           breadwheats. However, Canada, a much                   higher in 2013/14 but that can be comfortably
                                                           larger supplier, does now seem to be                   accommodated if the forecast US crop comes
                                                           getting its sowing done under adequate                 through. US maize ethanol use may also be
            FROM IAOM’S                                    moisture conditions on a much larger area              restrained by larger imports of cheap ethanol
                            installation friendly          and will probably have one of its largest              from a record Brazilian sugarcane crop
            2013 ANNUAL     perfect fitting                 crops ever. Australia – with its impor tant        •   China continues manage its constantly
                            shock explosion proof
            CONFERENCE      tight                          ‘prime hard’ wheat production – is also                growing feed demand with larger crops of
                            solid                          getting some much needed rains to plant                its own but it is expected to impor t more
           THROUGH clean    easy to THE
                            easy expandable
                                                           after some nail-biting dr y days in recent             in 2013/14. It has been buying recently and
                IAOM LIVE                                  weeks.
                                                         • India faces storage problems as another near
                                                                                                                  larger than expected amounts going in this
                                                                                                                  direction could make US markets frisky as
        QUICK CONNECT pull-ring more time-
                during assembly.                           record crop nears with warehouses already              purchases are anounced
                                                           overflowing. The solution – to drop export
                                                           price ambitions rather than watch quality spoil
                                                                                                              •   Speculators’ enthusiasm to buy into any crop
                                                                                                                  weather problems. This is becoming less of
        to dismantle.
                                                           under open storage – could mean downward               a factor as the big crop numbers mentioned
        PERFECT FITTING in long durability                 pressure on world wheat export prices –                above start to look attainable while the
        with top Recordings are
                  quality – that is our pipework           just as the traditional cheap sellers – the CIS        ‘managed money' community becomes
        and distribution system.                           countries - gear up to sell their large crops          increasingly disillusioned with diminishing
                                                           abroad                                                 returns from commodity investments in
                   for all PROOF
        SHOCK EXPLOSION 2013 safely
        JACOB pipework Conference                        • World wheat trade might be depressed by                general – from gold to oil. As we go to press
             Annual system.
                                                           larger than usual crops in Morocco, Turkey,            the regular report of US fund investments in
             attendees as well as
        TIGHT connection for our pipework                  Egypt and other Nor th African/Middle                  the top 11 commodity futures markets there
               IAOM members.
        systems.                                           eastern countries. Also, Iran now seems                shows a 15% drop to its lowest level in six
        SOLID and precise in case of retrofitting.
                                                           to have completed a massive stockbuilding              weeks.
                                                           programme and may import 5m tonnes less
        EASY TO CLEAN and easy replaceable.                next season. This is all likely to weigh further   OILMEALS/PROTEINS
                                                           on prices.                                         • Will the US get its soyabean crop planted
        EASY EXPANDABLE by variability of our
                                                         • The extent to which wheat use in feeds is            on time and may it pick up some extra
        modular system.
                                                           reduced if maize crops recover as planned.           acreage from delayed maize planting? If
        Visit us at POWTECH 2013                           That also depends on price. Wheat cannot             it does, soya prices will be under fur ther
        April 23 rd-25 th, Germany, hall 5,                possibly sustain the big price premiums              downward pressure into the last quar ter
        booth 5-348,                            over maize signaled on the forward CBOT              of 2013
                                                           futures markets and still compete with             • Planting and growing weather in the USA. A
       EUROPE’S NO. 1 IN PIPEWORK SYSTEMS                  maize in feeds – either in the US or in              later sown crop has plenty of moisture at this
         The QUICK CONNECT ® pull-ring makes               global markets.                                      stage. It looks likely to be a big one
         the acclaimed Jacob modular pipe system
                                                                                                              • South America’s delayed marketing of record
         even more economical for installation.
                                                         MAIZE                                                  crops means more competition well into the
         In new plants for animal feed, pharma-
         ceuticals, chemicals, food, glass, semi-        • Will the US manage to plant all its planned          USA’s peak, post-harvest marketing period.
         conductors or environmental technology            area on time to avoid ceding land to later-          That suggests more downward pressure on
         as well as for upgrading existing layouts
                                                           sown soybeans or some yield penalty?                 soya costs.
         user-friendly system installation becomes
         precise and easy due to the great versatility
                                                           Current pointers suggest it could fall 1m to       • Chinese demand for soya meal is expected
         of mass-produced pipe components.                 1.5m acres short. Yet all the moisture holding       to grow below its long term trend in
                                                           up sowing of the last 25% is a wonderful             2013/14 but its demand for beans could
         ORIGINAL QUALITY TO A MODULAR                     start for the young crop, an early pointer to        rocket as its domestic crop continues to
          Straight welded, lipped-end pipes and
                                                           bumper yields.                                       shrink. It remains far and away the largest
           components.                                   • Will US farmers get a ‘normal’ summer? The           destination for US and global soyabean
          ø 60 mm to ø 800 mm in a standard               first, possibly most important hurdle is mild/       expor ts
           range.                                          warm rather than hot weather during the            • Final EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflower seed
          Up to ø 400 mm normally dispatched
                                                           key pollination period. With later sowings,          and Canadian canola plantings - and their
           immediately from stock.
          Larger than ø 350 mm also available
                                                           the ‘reproductive’ phase may be a few weeks          crop weather. Af ter a delayed star t,
           with flange connection.                          later in many areas, deeper into the period of       Canada’s rapeseed crop could go either
          Powder coated steel or hot-dipped gal-          summer heat risk.                                    way while Australia’s may decline after
           vanised steel as well as stainless steel.     • Delayed marketing of Latin American maize            rapid growth in recent years. The EU’s
          1-3 mm wall thicknesses.
          Larger diameters / special requirements
                                                           crops means these will be competing with             crop may be slightly bigger. At the end of
           upon request.                                   the US into the latter’s new season, starting        the day, though, rapeseed, sunseed and
          Shock-explosion certified pipes and              September 1 – later than usual.                      other oilmeal costs will have to follow
           components available.                         • CIS countries have a much larger maize crop          market leader soya’s probable downward
       Fr. Jacob Söhne GmbH & Co. KG, Germany              on the way and will be cheap sellers. Whatever       path.
       Tel. + 49 (0)571 95580 |

      56 | may - June 2013
513459_GrainFeed_47x270_gb_4c_RZ.indd 126.03.13 11:19
                                                                                                                         Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

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     Grain   &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         may - June 2013 | 19
 This	digital	Re-print	is	part	of	the	May	|	June	2013	edition	of	Grain	&	Feed	
 Milling	Technology	magazine.		
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 Please	click	here	to	view	our	other	publications	on
                                                                                                                 May - June 2013

                    first published in 1891
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                                                                                      In this issue:
                                      •       Adding value to
                                              feed milling
                                              with profit-oriented feed
                                                                                  •     Additives
                                                                                        for flour
                                              formulation                               standardisation
                                                                                        Part II:
                                                                                        Additives other than

                                                                                                                                   •	   Contact	the	GFMT	Team
                                      •       ‘Kill step’                         •     High efficiency
                                              validation of                             elevator
                                              low-moisture                              buckets:
                                              extrusion                                 modern vs

                                                                                  •     Feed focus
                                      •       Pest control                              Poultry

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                                              across the supply
                                              chain                               •     Assessing
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