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Charts in PowerPoint - Norges Bank

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									        Charts
Financial Stability 1/08
Summary
Chart 1 Spread between money market rates with different
maturities and expected key policy rate 1). Average for the US,
the euro area and the UK. Percentage points. Daily figures.
1 Jan 07 – 29 May 08
1.2                                                               1.2


     1                                          12-month          1.0
                            3-month


0.8                                                               0.8


0.6                                                               0.6


0.4                                                               0.4
                                                     1-month


0.2                                                               0.2


  0                                                               0.0
  Jan-07      May-07        Sep-07       Jan-08       May-08
1)The expected key rate is represented by the Overnight
Indexed Swap (OIS)

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Chart 2 Banks’ capital ratio and pre-tax profit as a percentage
of average total assets.1) Annual figures. 1998 – 2007
1.5                                                                  14
                             Capital ratio (right-hand
                             scale)
                                                                     12
1.2

                                                                     10

0.9
                                                                     8
          Prof it bef ore loan
          losses and write-                    Prof it af ter loan
          downs (lef t-hand                    losses and write-     6
0.6       scale)                               downs (lef t-hand
                                               scale)
                                                                     4

0.3
                                                                     2


  0                                               0
  1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

 1)   Excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway

 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3 Banks’ interest margin. Percentage points. Quarterly
figures. 87 Q1 – 08 Q1
6                                                              6


5                                                              5


4                                                              4


3                                                              3


2                                                              2


1                                                              1


0                                                              0
1987       1990    1993    1996   1999    2002    2005    2008

    Source: Statistics Norway
 Chart 4 Market value for offices in Oslo 1). Price per square
 metre at constant 2007 NOK. Output gap2). Per cent.
 Annual figures. 1983 – 2010
                                                                   6
35,000                                        Market value at
                                              December 2007

                                                                   4
30,000
                       Output gap (right-hand scale)

                                                                   2
25,000



20,000                                                             0



15,000                                                             -2
                                      Market value
                                      (lef t-hand scale)

10,000                                                             -4
         1983   1987   1991    1995       1999      2003    2007

    1) Average  value for high-standard offices in central Oslo.
    Value as at June.
    2) Projections for 2007 – 2010


   Sources: OPAK and Norges Bank
Chart 5 12-month growth in credit to mainland Norway.
Per cent. Jan 1997 – Mar 2008
28                                                          28
                           Non-f inancial
                           enterprises 1)
24                                                          24

20                                                          20

16                                                          16
                                   Households 2)
12                                                          12

 8                                                          8

 4                                                          4
                  Total credit

 0                                                          0

-4                                                          -4
  1997     1999     2001         2003       2005   2007
 1) All
      foreign credit to mainland Norway is assumed granted to
  enterprises
 2) Household domestic credit


 Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 6 Banks’ gross stock of non-performing loans and
reported loan losses1). Percentage of gross lending. Quarterly
figures. 92 Q1 – 08 Q1
11                                                                     11


 9                                                                     9


 7                                                                     7


 5                                                                     5

                          Non-perf orming loans
 3                                                                     3


 1          Loan losses, annualised
                                                                       1


-1                                                                     -1
 1992      1994    1996      1998     2000        2002   2004   2006
 1)   Excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway

 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 7 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income.
Annual figures. 1990 – 2007
300                                                                      300

                                                            Denmark
250                                                                      250
                                                       Iceland


200                                                                      200

                                                                  UK
150                                           Norway
                                                                         150
                                                                   US
100                                                                      100
                           Sweden
                                                    Finland
 50                                                                      50

  0                                                                      0
      1990   1992   1994   1996     1998   2000   2002     2004   2006

 1)
  The figures are not necessarily comparable because countries
 may have different definitions and institutional arrangements

 Sources: OECD, Sveriges Riksbank, Danmarks Nationalbank,
 Sedlabanki Island, Finlands Bank and Norges Bank
1 International banks and
     financial markets
Chart 1.1 Credit spreads between government bonds in the
US and Europe. Percentage points. Daily figures.
10 Apr 02 – 29 May 08
12                                                                 12




 9                                                                 9
                               High-yield companies in the US




 6                     Emerging economies, EMBI+                   6




 3                                                                 3
                  US, BBB




     Euro area, BBB
 0                                                                 0
 2002      2003       2004    2005     2006        2007     2008

Source: Reuters EcoWin
Chart 1.2 Default rates on US mortgages. Per cent of lending.
Quarterly figures. 98 Q1 – 07 Q4

18                                                            18

16                                                            16

14                                                            14

                       Subprime
12                                                            12

10                                                            10

 8                                                            8

 6                      Total                                 6

 4                                                            4
                        Prime

 2                                                            2

 0                                                            0
       98   99    00    01      02   03   04   05   06   07

Source: Bloomberg
     Chart 1.3 Spread between money market rate and expected key
     policy rate. 3-month maturity. Percentage points. Daily figures.
     Historical (from 1 June 07) and forecasts (at 29 May 08)
 1.2                                                                  1.2

                                            UK
 1.0                                                                  1.0


 0.8                                                                  0.8


 0.6                                                                  0.6
                                                        US

 0.4                                                                  0.4
                                          Euro area

                   Norway   2)
 0.2                                                                  0.2


 0.0                                                                  0.0
   Jun-07         Oct-07         Feb-08        Jun-08        Oct-08
1) Expected key rates are measured by Overnight Indexed Swaps
(OIS)
2) Norges Bank’s projection


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
Chart 1.4 Writedowns and credit losses together with capital
raised for selected international banks. In billions of USD. Jan
07 – 29 May 08
5                                                                                                  5
              Writedowns and credit losses
              Capital raised
4                                                                                                  4


3                                                                                                  3


2                                                                                                  2


1                                                                                                  1


0                                                                                                  0
                                 JPMorgan
                          HSBC




                                                                             Royal Bank of
    America


              Citigroup




                                            Merrill Lynch




                                                                                             UBS
                                                            Morgan Stanley
    Bank of




                                  Chase




                                                                               Scotland



 Source: Bloomberg
Chart 1.5 Share prices for selected international banks.
1 Jan 07 = 100. Daily figures. 1 Jan 07 – 29 May 08

120                                                                120




100                                                                100




 80                                                                80




 60                                                                60

                  Citigroup
                  HSBC
                  Merrill Lynch
 40                                                                40
                  UBS



 20                                                                20
  Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08


Source: Bloomberg
Chart 1.6 CDS prices for selected US and European banks.
Basis points. Daily figures. 1 Jan 07 – 29 May 08
3.5                                                        3.5

              Citigroup
              Merrill Lynch
 3                                                         3
              UBS
              HSBC
2.5                                                        2.5



 2                                                         2



1.5                                                        1.5



 1                                                         1



0.5                                                        0.5



 0                                                         0
 Jan-07   Apr-07       Jul-07   Oct-07   Jan-08   Apr-08



Source: Bloomberg
 Chart 1.7 Share prices for the biggest bond insurers. USD.
 1 Jan 07 – 29 May 08


100                                                           100
                         Ambac


 80                                                           80



 60                                                           60
            MBIA


 40                                                           40



 20                                                           20



 0                                                            0
 Jan-07       May-07       Sep-07       Jan-08       May-08


 Source: Bloomberg
Chart 1.8 Surveys on bank lending practices. US. Net share of
banks that have tightened their credit standards.1) Per cent.
Quarterly figures. 90 Q1 – 08 Q1

100                                                                  100
                                                   For commercial
                                                   buildings
 80                                                                  80
                           For large and medium-
                           sized enterprises
 60                                                                  60


 40                                                                  40


 20                                                                  20


  0                                                                  0


-20                  For household mortgages 2)                      -20


-40                                                                  -40
  1990     1993     1996       1999      2002       2005      2008

 1) Difference between the share of banks that have tightened
 and the share of banks that have eased their credit standards.
 2) Up to and including 06 Q1, the figures apply to all household

 mortgages. Thereafter, the figures apply to prime mortgages.

 Source: US Federal Reserve
Chart 1.9 Surveys on bank lending practices. Euro area. Net
share of banks that will tighten their credit standards. 1)
Per cent. Quarterly figures. 03 Q1 – 08 Q1
60                                                                 60




40                                        For enterprises          40




20                                                                 20
                    For household mortgages



 0                                                                 0




-20                                                                -20
  2003      2004       2005        2006         2007        2008
 1)Difference between the share of banks that will tighten and
 the share of banks that will ease their credit standards.

 Source: European Central Bank
Chart 1.10 GDP growth. Forecasts for 2008 at different points
in time. Increase on previous year in per cent.

12                                                               12
         US             UK           Euro area           China



 9                                                               9
         Apr 2007

         Oct 2007

         May 2008
 6                                                               6




 3                                                               3




 0                                                               0
       2008   2009   2008    2009   2008   2009   2008    2009


     Source: Consensus Economics
 Chart 1.11 House prices in US and Europe. 12-month rise.
 Per cent. Monthly figures. Apr 03 – May 08
 30                                                         30

 25                                                         25
                                                Denmark

 20                                                         20

 15                                                         15
                              Spain
 10                                                         10

  5                                                         5
                         UK
  0                                                         0
                                      Ireland
 -5                                             US          -5

-10                                                         -10

-15                                                         -15
  2003       2004        2005            2006    2007

Source: Reuters EcoWin
2 Norwegian financial
     institutions
Chart 2.1 Banks’ 1) assets and liabilities. Per cent.
31 March 2008

100                  Assets exposed to
                     market risk


 80                  Other assets
                                                  Customer
                                                  deposits


 60

                     Lending to                   Loans f rom
                     households                   f inancial
                                                  institutions
 40

                                                  Securities
                                                  debt
 20
                     Lending to                   Other
                     enterprises                  liabilities
                                                  Equity
  0
               Assets                    Liabilities
    banks in Norway. Norwegian banks’ foreign subsidiaries
1) All

and branches abroad are not included in the statistical basis

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.2 Selected funding sources for Norwegian banks 1).
Percentage of gross lending. Quarterly figures. 98 Q1 – 08 Q1
120                                                                    120
                    Deposits f rom customers in f oreign currency



 90                                                                    90


                    Deposits f rom customers in NOK

 60                                                                    60




 30                 Market f unding in f oreign currency               30


                    Market f unding in NOK

  0                                                                    0
  1998            2000          2002            2004         2006   2008


 1) All   banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway

 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.3 3-month money market (NIBOR) and treasury bill
rates. Weekly figures. Average deposit rate of all banks in
Norway. Quarterly figures. 3 Jan 07 – 28 May 08
 7                                                                7
                                         Money market

 6                                                                6
                                        Treasury bills

 5                                                                5

 4                                                                4
                                Deposit rate

 3                                                                3

 2                                                                2

 1                                                                1

0                                                                 0
des.06    mar.07    jun.07    sep.07     des.07          mar.08

Sources: Norges Bank and Statistics Norway
Chart 2.4 5-year yields on Norw egian government and bank
bonds. Weekly figures. 3 Jan 07 – 28 M ay 08
 7                                                           7

                   Bank bonds
 6                                                           6


 5                                                           5

                                Government bonds
 4                                                           4


 3                                                           3


 2                                                           2


 1                                                           1


 0                                                           0
 jan.07   apr.07    jul.07       okt.07    jan.08   apr.08

Sources: Norges Bank, Reuters Ecow in and DnB NOR M arkets
Chart 2.5 Indicative spreads betw een the interest rate on 5-year
bank bonds and 5-year interest rate sw ap agreements. Selected
banks. Weekly figures. Percentage points. 6 Oct 04 – 28 M ay 08
0.8                                                                 0.8




0.6                                                                 0.6




0.4                                                                 0.4

                                             DnB NOR
           Nordea Bank Norge   Sparebank 1
                               banker and
0.2                            Sparebanken Vest                     0.2




  0                                                                 0
  Oct-04            Oct-05         Oct-06           Oct-07

 Source: DnB NOR M arkets
Chart 2.6 Selected funding sources for Norwegian banks 1).
In billions of NOK. Year-end 2003 – 2007 and March 2008
1500                                                                 1500
                                   Bonds


1200                               Short-term paper                  1200
                NOK

                                   Deposits / loans from financial
                                   institutions
 900                               Deposits from customers           900


                                           Foreign currency
 600                                                                 600



 300                                                                 300



    0                                                                0
         '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08   '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
                             Mar                       Mar
1) All
     banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks
in Norway

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.7 Norwegian banks’¹) and mortgage companies’ funding
sources. Percentage of gross lending. Quarterly figures.
00 Q1 – 08 Q1
50                                                                     50
                                                       Bonds


40                                                                     40



30                                     Deposits f rom retail sector    30



20                    Deposits / loans f rom f inancial institutions   20

                                 Deposits f rom corporate sector
10                                                                     10


                                    Notes and short-term paper
 0                                            0
  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1) All
    banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in
Norway

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.8 Norwegian banks’ 1) market funding by maturity.
Per cent. 06 Q4 – 08 Q1
100                                                                       100
90                                                                        90
80                                                                        80
70                                                                        70
60                                                                        60
50                                                                        50
40                                                                        40
30                                                                        30
20                                                                        20
10                                                                        10
  0                                                                       0
      des.06   mar.07        jun.07         sep.07      des.07   mar.08
                        Less than 1 month       1 - 3 months
                        3 - 12 months           1 - 5 years
                        More than 5 years       1

 1) All
      banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks
 in Norway
 Source: Norges Bank
                 Chart 2.9 Norwegian banks’ 1) assets and market funding with
                 maturity of less than 12 months. Per cent of total assets.
                 Mar 2008

                           Norway's five largest banks
                 60                                                          60




                 40                                                          40
Market funding




                 20                                                          20




                  0                                                          0
                      0               20                 40             60
                                              Assets
                 1) All
                      banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks
                 in Norway

                 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.10 Norwegian banks’¹) share of deposits. Deposits from
customers in per cent of lending to customers.
Quarterly figures. 00 Q1 – 08 Q1
85                                                                85


80                                                                80


75                                                                75
                                              Small banks 3)

70                                                                70


65                                     DnB NOR2)                  65


60                                                                60

                          Medium-sized banks 3)
55                                                                55


50                                                                 50
   2000         2002           2004               2006         2008


1) All
     banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in
Norway
2) DnB NOR Bank (excluding branches abroad) and

Nordlandsbanken
3) The dividing line between small and medium-sized banks is NOK

10bn (measured by assets) at end-2006

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.11 Norwegian banks’¹) short-term foreign debt²). Per
cent of gross lending. Quarterly figures. 00 Q1 – 08 Q1
30                                                                   30


25                                                                   25
                                             DnB NOR3)


20                                                                   20


15                                                                   15


10                                                                   10


 5                                           Medium-sized banks 4)   5

                            Small banks 4)
 0                                            0
  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1) All
     banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in
Norway
2) Short-term paper, deposits and loans from other financial institutions
3) DnB NOR Bank (excluding branches abroad) and Nordlandsbanken
4) The dividing line between small and medium-sized banks is NOK

10bn (measured by assets) at end-2006

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.12 Norwegian banks’¹) liquidity indicator (ratio of stable
funding sources to illiquid assets). Per cent.
Quarterly figures. 00 Q1 – 08 Q1
120                                                                  120

                                                      DnB NOR2)

               DnB NOR including f oreign branches,
110            borrowers and depositors                              110




100                                                                  100
           Small
           banks 3)


 90                                    Medium-sized banks )          90




 80                                            80
   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

  1) All
       banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in
  Norway
  2) DnB NOR Bank (excluding branches abroad) and Nordlandsbanken
  3) The dividing line between small and medium-sized banks is NOK 10bn

  (measured by assets) at end-2006

  Source: Norges Bank
 Chart 2.13 Banks’ 1) total interest margin divided into deposit
 and lending margin 2). Percentage points. End of quarter.
 97 Q4 – 08 Q1
  4                                                                4

3,5                                                                3,5
                                          Total interest margin
  3                                                                3

2,5                                                                2,5

  2                                                                2
                                          Lending margin
1,5                                                                1,5

  1                                                                1

0,5                                                                0,5
               Deposit margin3)
  0                                                                0

-0,5                                                               -0,5
   1997         1999        2001   2003        2005         2007

 1) All   banks in Norway
 2) Deposit and lending margins are measured against 3-month

 money market rates

 Source: Statistics Norway
   Chart 2.14 Banks’ 1) lending margins. Percentage points.
   07 Q2 – 08 Q1
    1                                                                           1
                                                         2007 Q2   2007 Q3

 0,8                                                     2007 Q4   2008 Q1      0,8

 0,6                                                                            0,6

 0,4                                                                            0,4

 0,2                                                                            0,2

    0                                                                           0

 -0,2                                                                           -0,2

 -0,4                                                                           -0,4

 -0,6                                                                           -0,6
            Non-financial      Households   Home equity       Repayment loans
         private enterprises                lines of credit     secured on
                                                                 dwellings

1) All   banks in Norway

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
  Chart 2.15 Banks’ 1) profit/loss in per cent of average total
  assets. Annual figures 2002 – 2007. 07 Q1 and 08 Q1
 4                                                                       4

 3                                                                       3

 2                                                                       2

 1                                                                       1

 0                                                                       0

-1                                                                       -1
                                                             Q1
-2                                                                       -2

-3                                                                       -3
         2003   2004       2005        2006   2007    2007        2008
                 Net interest income            Other operating income
                 Operating expenses             Loan losses
                 Write-downs etc.               Pre-tax profit/loss

1) All   banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.16 Banks’ 1) gross stock of non-performing loans.
Percentage of gross lending to sector. Quarterly figures.
97 Q1 – 08 Q1
5                                                           5


                                     Enterprises
4                                                           4



3                                                           3

                                   All sectors
2                                                           2



1                              Households                   1



0                                                           0
 1997                 2000        2003             2006

    1) All   banks in Norway

    Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.17 Banks’¹) Tier 1 capital ratio²). Per cent. Quarterly
figures. 02 Q1 – 08 Q1

18                                                                    18
                           Small banks 4)

15                                                                    15


12                                                                    12
                        Medium-sized   banks 4)

 9                                                                    9

                           DnB NOR3)
 6                                                                    6
                                       Measured according to the
                                       Basel I f ramework
 3                                                                    3


 0                                                                     0
  2002      2003      2004       2005       2006       2007        2008

1) Allbanks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway
2) In 2007 Q1 eight banks reported according to Basel II. As from 2008
Q1 all banks are required to report according to Basel II. The 2008 Q1
figures are based on official first-quarter reports
3) DnB NOR Bank (excluding branches abroad) and Nordlandsbanken
4) The dividing line between small and medium-sized banks is NOK

10bn (measured by assets) at end-2006

Source: Norges Bank and Kredittilsynet
Chart 2.18 Growth in banks’ and mortgage companies’¹) lending.
12-month growth. Per cent.
Monthly figures. Jan 00 – Apr 08
24                                                                24
                                              Corporate sector

20                                                                20


16                                                                16

                                                  Retail sector
12                              All sectors                       12


 8                                                                8


 4                                                                4


 0                                                                0


-4                                             -4
  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1) All   banks and mortgage companies in Norway

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.19 Probabilities of bank failures). 75 and 90
per cent percentiles.2) Quarterly figures. 00 Q1 – 08 Q1

0.6                                                                    0.6
           75%    90%

0.5                                                                    0.5


0.4                                                                    0.4


0.3                                                                    0.3


0.2                                                                    0.2


0.1                                                                    0.1


     0                                          0.0
     2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1) All  banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway
2)   75 (90) per cent of the banks are within the 75 (90) percentile

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.20 Life insurance companies’ buffer capital1) and asset mix.
Per cent of total assets. Quarterly figures. 01 Q1 – 08 Q1

40                                                                             40
                                           Bonds "hold to maturity“2)




30                                                                             30
                                  Bonds and short-
                                  term paper


20                                                                             20
                              Equities and shares


                                                            Real estate
10                                                                             10

        Buf f er capital


     0                                                                         0
      2001    2002         2003     2004    2005     2006     2007      2008
1) Buffer capital is defined as the sum of the securities adjustment
reserve, supplementary provisions with an upward limit of one
year, and surplus of Tier 1 capital
2) From 2007 other bonds for permanent investment are also

included

Source: Kredittilsynet
3 The Norwegian macro-
  financial environment
Chart 3.1 Household real disposable income 1) and
consumption2). Annual growth. Per cent. 1997 – 2007
8                                                             8
              Income

              Consumption

6                                                             6




4                                                             4




2                                                             2




0                                                             0
    1997        1999        2001   2003      2005      2007
1) Adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends for
2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for
2006 – 2007
2) Includes consumption in non-profit organisations


Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.2 Projected key policy rate in the baseline
scenario with fan chart. Per cent. Quarterly figures.
06 Q1 – 11 Q4
9                                                          9

8                                                          8

7                                                          7

6                                                          6

5                                                          5

4                                                          4

3                                                          3

2                                                          2
       30%   50%    70%    90%
1                                                          1

0                                                          0
2006      2007    2008           2009     2010      2011
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.3 Equity indices, Oslo Stock Exchange.
Daily figures. 1 Jan 07 – 29 May 08. 1 Jan 07=100.
150                                                                        150
           Industrials and Materials       OSEBX
140                                                                        140
           Consumer goods                  Energy

130        Financials                                                      130


120                                                                        120


110                                                                        110


100                                                                        100


 90                                                                        90


 80                                                                        80


 70                                                                        70


 60                                                                        60
 jan. 07 mar. 07 mai. 07 jul. 07 sep. 07 nov. 07 jan. 08 mar. 08 mai. 08

Source: Reuters Ecowin
Chart 3.4 Risk premium 1 Norw egian bonds. 5- year maturity.
Indicative price. Per cent. Weekly figures. 2 Jan 02 – 28 M ay 08
1.2                                                                1.2


     1                                                             1


0.8                                                                0.8


0.6                                                                0.6

                             Non-financial Enterprises
0.4                                                                0.4


0.2                                                                0.2
                                                 Banks

     0                                                             0
     2002    2003     2004       2005      2006      2007   2008
1)
     Distance to mid-sw ap

Source: DnB NOR M arkets
Chart 3.5 Aggregated bond issues registered at Oslo Stock
Exchange. Monthly figures. Billion NOK
80                                                                                80

70                                                                                70

                                             Banks and financial
60                                                                                60
                                             institutions 2007

50                                                                                50
           Banks and financial
           institutions 2008
40                                                                                40

30                                                                                30

                                           Non-financial enterprises 2007
20                                                                                20

10                                                                                10
                             Non-financial enterprises 2008
 0                                                                                0
     Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr     May   Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep    Oct   Nov    Dec


Source: Oslo Stock Exchange
Chart 3.6 Household liabilities and assets In billions of NOK.
2007 Q4
7000                                                         7000
                                        Other claims
                                          Securities
6000                                                              6000
                                  Insurance reserves

5000                                                              5000
                                    Notes, coins and
                                    bank deposits
4000                                                              4000


3000                                                   Housing    3000
                                                       wealth1)

2000                                                              2000
                   Other loans

1000                                                              1000
                   Mortgages


      0                                                           0
                    Liabilities                         Assets
1)   Projections

Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents,
ECON Pöyry, Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency
Firms, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.7 Credit to households. 12-month growth in
percent. Monthly figures. Jan 98 – Mar 081)
16                                                                  16

14                                                                  14
                   Mortgages

12                                                                  12

10                                                                  10

 8                                                                  8

 6                                                                  6

 4                        Domestic credit to households             4

 2               Other loans
                                                                    2

 0                                                                  0

-2                                                                  -2
 1998           2000           2002      2004         2006   2008
 1)   Break in the series in December 2005

 Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.8 Household debt growth and investment in financial
assets1) by investment instrument. Sum last four quarters. In
billions of NOK. Quarterly figures. 97 Q1 – 07 Q4
250                                                               250



                                               Debt growth
200                                                               200



                Securities and other claims
150                                                               150



100                                                               100


                                 Notes, coins and bank deposits
 50                                                               50

                                   Insurance reserves

  0                                                               0
  1998       2000         2002          2004            2006
1)Investment in financial assets is adjusted for reinvested share
dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity
capital 2006 – 2007

Source: Statistics Norway
     Chart 3.9 Household saving as a share of disposable income.
     Per cent. Annual figures. 2000 – 2007
 8                                                                   8

                      Saving ratio1)
 6                                                                   6


 4                                                                   4


 2                                                                   2


 0                                                                   0

                               Saving ratio excl. share
-2                             dividends                             -2


-4                                                                   -4
  2000        2001   2002     2003     2004      2005     2006   2007
         for estimated reinvested share dividends for 2000 – 2005
1) Adjusted

and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2007

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.10 House prices by type of dwelling. 4-quarter rise. Per
cent. 00 Q1 – 08 Q1. Housing starts for multi-dwelling buildings.
Number. Yearly figures. 2000 – 2007
40                                                                            18000
                            Housing starts for multi-dwelling
35                          buildings (right-hand scale)
                                                                              15000
30
                                                     Semi-detached and
        Apartments                                   terraced houses
25      (left-hand scale)
                                                                              12000
                                                     (left-hand scale)

20
                                                                              9000
15

10                                                                            6000

 5                                               Detached houses
                                                 (left-hand scale)            3000
 0

-5                                                                            0
 2000    2001     2002      2003    2004     2005     2006      2007   2008

Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents,
Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, ECON Pöyry,
Finn.no and Statistics Norway
Chart 3.11 Building completions and increase in the number of
households. Yearly figures. 2000 – 2007
40000                                                                40000

                Building completions
35000                                                                35000
                Increase in the number of households

30000                                                                30000

25000                                                                25000

20000                                                                20000

15000                                                                15000

10000                                                                10000

 5000                                                                5000

    0                                                                0
        2000   2001   2002    2003     2004   2005     2006   2007

Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.12 Post-tax income excluding share dividends
distributed by expense item and margin. Households excluding
self-employed. In billions of 2006-NOK. 1986 – 2006
800                                                           800


700                                                           700


600                                                           600


500                                                           500


400                                                           400

        Cost of living
300                                                           300


200                                                           200


100     Interest rates                                        100

        Margin
  0                                                    0
  1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Sources: Statistics Norway, National Institute for Consumer
Research and Norges Bank
Chart 3.13 Debt burden1) in selected household groups at end-
2006. Households excluding self-employed. Per cent

500                                                                           100
                                              Debt burden (left-hand scale)
450                                                                           90
                                              Share of total debt
400                                           (right-hand scale)              80
350                                                                           70
300                                                                           60
250                                                                           50
200                                                                           40
150                                                                           30
100                                                                           20
 50                                                                           10
     0                                                                        0
         Young first-time First-time Increasing debt With debt       All
          homebuyers homebuyers
1)Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for
estimated redemption/reduction of equity capital

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.14 Distribution of gross financial wealth and related
debt at end-2006. Households excluding self-employed.
Per cent
40                                                                        40
35                                                                        35

30                                           Gross financial              30
                                             wealth
25                                                                        25

20                                                                        20
15                                                                        15

10                                                                        10

 5                                                                        5
                   Debt
 0                                                                        0
     0   10   20    30    40     50     60      70     80      90   100
                     Percentile financial wealth
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.15 Actual and calculated1) house price.
1000 NOK/sq. m. 03 Q1 – 08 Q1
27                                                                    27


25                                                                    25
                                 Actual house price

23                                                                    23


21                                                                    21
                                             Calculated house price
19                                                                    19


17                                                                    17


15                                                                    15


13                                                                   13
 2003        2004         2005        2006            2007        2008
1)Calculated house price is calculated by estimating the house
price model with data up to 2004 Q1 and simulating forward by
using actual values for the explanatory variables and calculated
values for house prices in the forecast period

Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents,
Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no, Econ Pöyry
and Norges Bank
Chart 3.16 Real house prices. Indices. 1985 = 100.
Annual figures. 1985 – 2007


240                                                                         240
                                                   Deflated by CPI



         Deflated
180      by house rent                                                      180



                         Deflated by
120                      building costs                                     120



                                          Deflated by hourly wages
 60                                                                         60




  0                                                                         0
      1985   1988        1991    1994      1997    2000    2003      2006


Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents,
Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no, Econ Pöyry,
Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.17 Four-quarter rise in house prices. Interest burden1).
Per cent. Quarterly figures. 91 Q1 – 11 Q42)
25                                                                    12
                                          House prices
20                                        (left-hand scale)


15                                                                    9

10

 5                                                                    6

 0
                     Interest burden
                     (right-hand scale)
 -5                                                                   3

-10

-15                                                                   0
  1991        1994     1997       2000        2003      2006   2009

1) Interestexpenses after tax as a percentage of liquid disposable
income adjusted for estimated share dividends for 2000 – 2005 and
redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2011 plus interest
expenses
2) Projections for 2008 Q2 – 2011 Q4


Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents, ECON Pöyry,
Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Statistics Norway
and Norges Bank
Chart 3.18 Debt burden1) and debt burden adjusted for
household general living expenses 2). Annual figures.
1987 – 20113)
700                                                             250


600
                            Debt burden                         200
                            (right-hand scale)
500

                                                                150
400


300
                                                                100

200                                  Adjusted debt burden
                                     (left-hand scale)
                                                                50
100


  0                                                             0
  1987     1991      1995     1999         2003       2007   2011
Loan debt as a percentage of liquid disposable income
adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends for 2000 -
2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2011
2) Disposable income less general living expenses as calculated

by the National Institute for Consumer Research (SIFO)
3) Projections for 2008 – 2011


Sources: Statistics Norway, SIFO and Norges Bank
Chart 3.19 Debt-servicing capacity1) for different industries.
Per cent. Yearly figures. 2005 – 20072)

       Construction


      Manufacturing
                                                                   2005
        Retail trade                                               2006
                                                                   2007

  Business services


          Fisheries

        Hotels and
        restaurants

Commercial property


           Telecom


                       0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80    90    100
 1) Ordinary results before tax, write-downs and depreciation as a
 percentage of bank debt and bonds. Non-financial firms,
 mainland Norway. Group-financed firms are not included.
 2) Projections for 2007 are based on a sample of financial

 statements that were submitted early
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.20 Debt-servicing capacity1). Levels (right-hand scale)
and contribution to relative changes (left-hand scale) from
growth in debt, income and costs 2). Per cent. 1999 – 20073)
80                                                                                50



                                                                                  40
40


                                                                                  30

 0

                                                                                  20


-40
                            Net sales income            Debt growth               10
                            Wage costs                  Financial income
                            Financial costs             Debt-servicing capacity

-80                                                                               0
      1999   2000   2001   2002     2003       2004   2005     2006        2007
1) See footnote 1, Chart 3.18
2) Net sales income is defined as sales income less the cost of
goods sold, operating costs and change in inventories
3) Projections for 2007 are based on a sample of financial

statements that were submitted early
Source: Norges Bank
  Chart 3.21 Key ratios for non-financial firms listed on Oslo Stock
  Exchange1) Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2002 Q1 – 2008 Q1
  30                                                              30

                 Return on equity 2)
  20                                                                       20


  10                                                                       10
                                                 Operating margin3)


    0                                                                      0


  -10                                                                      -10


  -20                                                                      -20


  -30                                                                      -30
    mar. 02   mar. 03    mar. 04       mar. 05   mar. 06    mar. 07   mar. 08

1) Sample  consisting of 171 listed firms. Projections for 2008 Q1
are based on a smaller sample (OBX index).
2) Ordinary results before tax as a percentage of book equity
3) Operating results as a percentage of sales


Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
 Chart 3.22 Credit to major debt-holding industries from
 Norwegian financial institutions. 12-month growth.
 Per cent. Jan 04 – Mar 08


30                                                                            30
             Commercial property and business services    1)




20                                                                            20




10                                                                            10


                                                     Retail trade
  0                                                                           0

                                    Manufacturing

-10                                                                           -10
  jan. 02    jan. 03   jan. 04   jan. 05   jan. 06       jan. 07    jan. 08


1)    Includes financial services

Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.23 Equity share of total assets1) (right-hand scale) and
contribution to relative changes (left-hand scale) from debt
growth, retained earnings, writedowns and equity injected.
Per cent. 1999 – 2007
20                                                                                    50

15
                                                                                      40
10

 5
                                                                                      30

 0

                                                                                      20
 -5

-10
                             Equity injected                   Retained earnings      10
-15                          Writedowns                        Debt growth
                                            1)                                2)
                             Equity share                      Equity share
-20                                                                                   0
      1999    2000   2001   2002     2003        2004   2005      2006         2007
1) Non-financial   firms. Mainland Norway
2) Only   firms with bank debt included
Source: Norges Bank
     Chart 3.24 Rental price and market value (right-hand scale) of
     offices.1) Real indices (1985=100). Yield (left-hand scale).2) Per
     cent. Half-year series. 1985 – 2007.
5                                                                          120


4             Rental price

                                                                           100
3


2
                                                                           80

1


0                                                                          60


-1
                                                Market value               40
-2


-3        Yield3)
                                                                           20

-4


-5                                                                         0
Dec-85      Dec-88   Dec-91   Dec-94   Dec-97   Dec-00   Dec-03   Dec-06

 1) High standard offices centrally located in Oslo
 2) Rental price net of owner costs as a percentage of market value
 3) Measured as a percentage deviation from 10-year government bonds


Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK and Norges Bank
     Chart 3.25 Rental prices for offices in Oslo and Bergen. Average
     annual growth in selected periods and equilibrium expectations 1) for
     future growth rates assuming different discount rates. Per cent
     5                                                              5
                                                  Oslo   Bergen
     4                                                              4


     3                                                              3


     2                                                              2


     1                                                              1

     0                                                              0

               Historical growth rates    Expected growth rates
 -1                                                                 -1
          1997-2007       1987-2007 Low discount High discount
                                        rate         rate
1) Rental growth needed to equal the present value of rental
income equal to market value. Nominal discount rate after
tax (28 per cent) is set at 5.1 (6.65) per cent. The discount
rate may reflect 75 per cent leverage,1.5 (3) per cent credit
margin, 5 per cent market premium, equity beta 0.57, and
risk free rate 5 (6) per cent

Sources: Norges Bank and OPAK
Chart 3.26 Expected earnings for firms listed on Oslo Stock
Exchange. Earnings in 2008 and 2009.1) NOK per share. Monthly
figures. Feb 06 – Apr 08
50                                                          50


                                             Expectations for 2009
45                                                                             45


           Expectations for 2008
40                                                                             40



35                                                                             35



30                                                                             30



25                                                                             25
 feb. 06            aug. 06        feb. 07           aug. 07         feb. 08

 1) Estimates      given by market analysts at different points in time

Source: Reuters EcoWin
Chart 3.27 Banks’ deposits with and borrowing facilities
at Norges Bank. In billions of NOK. Average daily
observation. 2000 – 20081)

175                                                        175

            Deposits
150                                                        150
            Borrowing facilities
125                                                        125

100                                                        100

 75                                                        75

 50                                                        50

 25                                                        25

  0                                                        0
       00    01    02    03    04    05   06    07    08
  1)2008: Average for the last day of the months
  January-April

  Source: Norges Bank
4 Outlook and challenges
Chart 4.1 Credit risk premium on corporate bonds rated BBB.
5-year maturity. Percentage points. 1 Jan 2007 – 29 May 2008

4.0                                                       4.0

3.5                               US                      3.5

3.0                                                       3.0

2.5                                                       2.5
                                       Europe
2.0                                                       2.0

1.5                                                       1.5

1.0                                                       1.0

0.5                                                       0.5

0.0                                                       0.0
 Jan-07   Apr-07    Jul-07   Oct-07    Jan-08   Apr-08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Chart 4.2 Deposit-to-loan ratio in credit institutions1) in Nordic
countries. Deposits from customers as a percentage of lending
to customers. 2001 – 20072)

100                                                              100

 90                            Finland                           90

 80                                                              80

 70                                                              70

 60                                                              60
                  Norway                           Sweden
 50                                                              50

 40                                                              40
              Denmark
 30                                                              30
                                         Iceland
 20                                                              20

 10                                                              10

  0                                                             0
  2001        2002      2003      2004    2005     2006      2007

1) Includes  banks, mortgage companies and other credit
institutions
2) Break in time series between 2005 and 2006


Sources: Nordic Banking Structures report (2006), EU Banking
Sector Stability report (November 2007) and Norges Bank
Chart 4.3 12-month rise in house prices1) and housing starts2)
in the US. Jan 2004 – Apr 2008

2.4                                                                   20

                                               Housing
2.0                                            starts (left-
                                                                      15
                                               hand scale)


1.6                                                                   10


1.2                                                                   5


0.8                                                                   0
                          House prices
                          (right-hand scale)
0.4                                                                   -5


0.0                                                                   -10
   2004            2005         2006             2007          2008
1) Rise    in median prices for existing homes in per cent
2) In   million homes

Source: Reuters EcoWin
                         Chart 4.4 Banks’ 1) capital adequacy ratio and lending to
                         commercial property as a share of gross lending.
                         As at 2007 Q4. Per cent
                         30                                                               30


                         25                                                               25
Capital adequacy ratio




                         20                                                               20


                         15                                                               15


                         10                                                               10


                          5                                                               5
                                    Lower bound for
                                    capital adequacy
                                    ratio
                          0                                                               0
                              0       5         10      15       20        25        30
                                               Share of lending to
                                              commercial property
                         1) All
                              banks excluding foreign branches in Norway and banks
                         with a capital adequacy ratio above 30 per cent

                         Source: Norges Bank
Boxes
Stress testing of banks losses
         and results
Chart 1 House prices. Year-on-year rise. Per cent1)

20                                                            20

15                                                            15

10                                                            10
                                               Baseline
 5                                                            5

 0                                                            0

 -5                                                           -5

-10                          Stress scenario
                                                              -10

-15                                                           -15

-20                                                           -20
  2003             2005             2007       2009        2011
 1)   Projections for 2008 – 2011
 Sources: Association of Real Estate Agents, ECON Pöyry,
 FINN.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms and
 Norges Bank
Chart 2 Banks’ lending rate1)
10                                                                  10
                                           Stress scenario


 8                                                                  8

                                                      Baseline

 6                                                                  6



 4                                                                  4



 2                                                                  2



 0                                                                  0
 2003             2005              2007              2009       2011
 1)   Projections for 2008 – 2011
 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3 Credit to households (C2). Year-on-year growth.1)
Per cent2)
14                                                             14

12                                                             12
                                                Baseline
10                                                             10

 8                                                             8

 6                                                             6

 4                                                             4
                          Stress scenario
 2                                                             2

 0                                                             0

-2                                                             -2
 2003             2005          2007            2009        2011
 1)   Change in stock measured at end of year
 2)   Projections for 2008 – 2011
 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
 Chart 4 GDP mainland Norway. Year-on-year growth.
 Per cent1)
8                                                               8



6                                                               6



4                                                               4

                                                  Baseline

2                                                               2

                               Stress scenario

0                                                               0



-2                                                              -2
 2003             2005              2007         2009        2011
 1)   Projections for 2008 – 2011
 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
 Chart 5 Banks’ losses. Percentage of gross lending.
 Annual figures1)
  3                                                               3


2.5                                                               2.5


  2                                                               2
                                           Stress scenario

1.5                                                               1.5


  1                                                               1


0.5                                                               0.5
                                                    Baseline

  0                                                               0


-0.5                                                              -0.5
   2003            2005             2007         2009          2011
 1)   Projections for 2008 – 2011
 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 6 Post-tax profit in Norway’s five largest banks 1).
Percentage of average total assets. Annual figures 2)
1.5                                                              1.5


  1                                                              1
                                                   Baseline

0.5                                                              0.5


  0                                                              0


                                Stress scenario
-0.5                                                             -0.5


 -1                                                              -1


-1.5                                                             -1.5
   2007         2008           2009               2010        2011
 1) DnB NOR Bank (excl. branches abroad), SpareBank 1
 SR Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge and
 SpareBank 1 SMN
 2) Projections for 2008 – 2011

 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 7 Capital adequacy in Norway’s five largest banks 1).
Per cent. Annual figures2)
16                                                            16
      Baseline   Stress scenario

           Capital requirement


12                                                            12




 8                                                            8




 4                                                            4




 0                                                            0
       2007         2008           2009   2010      2011

1) DnB NOR Bank (excl. branches abroad), SpareBank 1
SR Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge and
SpareBank 1 SMN
2) Projections for 2008 – 2011

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 8 Expected loss in stress scenario. By industry.
Percentage of total loss.

                                                          100
Other industries
                                                          90

Real Estate                                               80

                                                          70
Retail trade
                                                          60
Transport and
communication                                             50

Business services                                         40

                                                          30
Construction
                                                          20
Manufacturing
                                                          10

                                                          0
                    2007   2008    2009    2010    2011
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 9 Debt-servicing capacity.1) Historically and in the
stress scenario. Real estate firms and all industries except
real estate2). 1988 – 20113)
45                                                             45

40                                                             40
                                Other industries
35                                                             35

30                                                             30

25                                                             25

20                                                             20
                              Real estate
15                                                             15

10                                                             10

 5                                                             5

 0                                                             0
      1988   1992     1996     2000         2004   2008
 1) Pre-tax results, depreciation and writedowns as a
 percentage of interest-bearing debt
 2) Non-financial enterprises. Mainland Norway
 3) Projections for 2007 – 2011

 Source: Norges Bank
 Chart 10 Percentage of households with negative margin1)
 and debt in households with negative margin as a
 percentage of total debt.
15                                                                       15


                               Households
                              Debt


10                                                                       10




 5                                                                       5




 0                                                                       0
          2004      2007     2010 Base   2010 Stress    2010 Stress
                                                       with increased
                                                        cost of living

     1)Margin = after tax income – standard cost of living
     – interest payments – calculated repayments (20 year)
     Sources: Statistics Norway, National Institute for Consumer
     research and Norges Bank
Chart 11 Debt in households with negative margin in
selected group. Percentage of group debt.
Stress scenario. 2010
15                                                               15




10                                                               10




 5                                                               5




 0                                                               0
     Home owners with First home buyers   Net depositors   All
      debt burden1 > 5

1)   Debt-to-disposable-income ratio
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank’s survey of Bank
         Lending
Chart 1 Change in credit standards for approving loans to non-
financial corporations. Net percentage balances 1), 2).
Quarterly figures. 07 Q4 – 08 Q1
60                                                          60


40                                                          40
                   Total           Commercial real estate

20                                                          20


     0                                                      0


-20                                                         -20


-40                                                         -40


-60                                                         -60
         Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008
1) Net percentage balances are calculated by weighting together
the responses in the survey. The blue bars show developments
over the past quarter. The orange diamonds show expectations
over the next quarter. The orange diamonds have been moved
forward one quarter
2) Negative net percentage balances indicate tighter credit

standards
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Factors affecting credit standards for approving loans to
non-financial corporations. Net percentage balances 1), 2).
Quarterly figures. 07 Q4 – 08 Q1
60                                                                60


40      Economic    Sector-specific             Banks’ appetite   40
                                      Funding
         outlook       outlook                     for risk


20                                                                20


  0                                                               0


-20                                                               -20


-40                                                               -40


-60                                                               -60
       Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2
      2007   08 07    08 07    08 07    08
 1)See footnote 1 in Chart 1
 2) Negative net percentage balances indicate that the factor
 contributes to tighter credit standards

 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3 Change in loan conditions for non-financial
corporations. Net percentage balances 1), 2).
Quarterly figures. 07 Q4 – 08 Q1
 60                                                         60


 40                                                         40


 20                                                         20


  0                                                         0


-20      Lending       Equity        Collateral             -20
         margins    requirements   requirements   Fees


-40                                                         -40


-60                                                         -60
       Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2
      2007   08 07    08 07    08 07    08
 1)See footnote 1 in Chart 1
 2)Positive net percentage balances for lending margins indicate
 higher lending margins. Positive net percentage balances for
 lending margins, equity requirements, collateral requirements
 and fees indicate tighter credit standards

 Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4 Change in credit standards for approving loans to
households. Factors affecting credit standards. Net percentage
balances1). Quarterly figures. 07 Q4 – 08 Q1
 60                                                                60
                              Factors affecting credit
                                   standards 3)
             Credit
 40       standards 2)
                                                                   40

                         Economic   Banks’ appetite
                                                         Funding
 20                       outlook      for risk                    20


     0                                                             0


-20                                                                -20


-40                                                                -40


-60                                                                -60
          Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2
         2007   08 07    08 07    08 07    08
1) See footnote 1 in Chart 1
2) Negative net percentage balances indicate tighter credit
standards
3) Negative net percentage balances indicate that the factor

contributes to tighter credit standards

Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5 Change in loan conditions for households. Net
percentage balances1), 2). Quarterly figures. 07 Q4 – 08 Q1
 60                                                                 60
                     Maximum        Maximum         Interest-only
                     loan-to-       loan-to-value   periods
 40                  income ratio   ratio                           40


 20                                                                 20


  0                                                                 0


-20                                                                 -20
         Lending
         margins
-40                                                                 -40


-60                                                                 -60
       Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2
      2007   08 07    08 07    08 07    08
 1) See footnote 1 in Chart 1
 2) Positive net percentage balances for lending margins indicate
 higher lending margins and therefore tighter credit standards.
 Negative net percentage balances for maximum LTI ratio,
 maximum LTV ratio and use of interest-only periods indicate
 tighter credit standards

 Source: Norges Bank

								
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