FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER

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FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER Powered By Docstoc
					FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO
 DISASTERS AND DISASTER
       RESILIENCE

A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40
         Years or More

  Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
  Disaster Reduction, University of
        North Carolina, USA
   BASIC PHYSICS and EARTH
 SCIENCE of NATURAL HAZARDS

 TOWARDS A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS THAT CAUSE NATURAL
       HAZARDS AROUND THE GLOBE



              PART I
HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES
HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES


                      EXPOSURE AND
                      EXPOSURE AND
        HAZARDS
        HAZARDS       VULNERABILITY
                      VULNERABILITY




                   CITY


                           DISASTER
                           DISASTER
        DISASTER
        DISASTER          RESILIENCE
                          RESILIENCE
 NATURAL HAZARDS ARE
NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES
        (PART I)
 DISASTERS, THE “DEFAULT OPTION”
              (PART II)
                AND
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION: (PART III)
    PLANET EARTH IS
AFFECTED BY A CONTINUUM
  OF NATURAL HAZARDS
       EARTHQUAKES
         TSUNAMIS
    SEVERE WINDSTORMS
        VOLCANOES
          FLOODS
         WILDFIRES
   A DISASTER OCCURS
   WHEN THE CITY IS …

        UN—PREPARED
       UN—PROTECTED
UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
      UN (NON)--RESILIENT
    BASIC EARTH SCIENCE

• PLATE         • EARTHQUAKES
  TECTONICS     • TSUNAMIS
• FAULTS        • VOLCANOES
• WATER CYCLE   • FLOODS
• SOLAR HEAT    • SEVERE
                  WINDSTORMS
                • WILDFIRES
          BASIC PHYSICS

• STRESS          • WAVES (P-, S-,
  (Compression,     Love-, Rayleigh
  Tension, Shear) Waves;
• DEFORMATION Tsunamis)
  (Faults, Folds) • FLOWS,
• HEAT AND          BLASTS, AND
  PRESSURE          PLUMES
 FLOW
    PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OCCUR
          ON MANY SCALES
•   Microscopic
•   Site-specific to local
•   Subsurface to atmospheric
•   Regional
•   Continental
•   OCEANIC
•   Global
    EARTHQUAKES:

 PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
    ENCOMPASS THE
  LITHOSPHERE, CORE,
MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE,
  (HYDROSPHERE) AND
      BIOSPHERE
HEAT FLOWS FROM THE
    OUTER CORE
TECTONIC PLATES 200 MILLION
YEARS AFTER PANGEA
NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC (JUAN
DE FUCA) PLATES CONVERGING
 NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC
 NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC
PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER
PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER
San Andreas: A Plate Boundary
San Andreas: A Plate Boundary
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
   NATURAL HAZARDS
   NATURAL HAZARDS
           ••   FLOODS
                FLOODS
           ••   EARTHQUAKES
                EARTHQUAKES
           ••   TSUNAMIS
                TSUNAMIS
           ••   VOLCANIC
                VOLCANIC
                ERUPTIONS
                ERUPTIONS
           ••   WILDFIRES
                WILDFIRES
           ••   LANDSLIDES
                LANDSLIDES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
   NATURAL HAZARDS
    NATURAL HAZARDS
           ••   FLOODS
                 FLOODS
           ••   HURRICANES
                 HURRICANES
           ••   EARTHQUAKES
                 EARTHQUAKES
           ••   TORNADOES
                 TORNADOES
           ••   ICE STORMS
                 ICE STORMS
           ••   LANDSLIDES
                 LANDSLIDES
THE CARIBBEAN PLATE AND
    HAITI EARTHQUAKE
PACIFIC RIM: SUBDUCTION OF
CONVERGING PLATES
 MOST EARTHQUAKES OCCUR IN
PACIFIC RIM CONVERGENCE ZONE
INDIA-EURASIA: COLLISION OF
CONVERGING PLATES
PLATE CONVERGENCE: BANDA
ACHE, INDONESIA AREA
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
     AGENTS OF AN
     EARTHQUAKE
               FAULT         TSUNAMI       DAMAGE/ LOSS
              RUPTURE

                           SUBSIDENCE      DAMAGE/ LOSS
             DAMAGE/LOSS

                           FOUNDATION
                                           DAMAGE/ LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
                             FAILURE

                               SOIL
                                           DAMAGE/ LOSS
                           AMPLIFICATION


               GROUND      LIQUEFACTION    DAMAGE/ LOSS
               SHAKING


             DAMAGE/LOSS   LANDSLIDES      DAMAGE/ LOSS




                           AFTERSHOCKS     DAMAGE/ LOSS




                              SEICHE       DAMAGE/ LOSS
                    CAUSES OF
                    CAUSES OF
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER

                           INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
                          HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING


                              SOIL AMPLIFICATION

                           PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
                           (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
                                    FAULTING )

                            IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
EARTHQUAKES                STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
 EARTHQUAKES

                          FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE
CASE HISTORIES
CASE HISTORIES                 RUNUP AND SEICHE


                               POOR DETAILING OF
                              STRUCTURALSYSTEM

                          FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL
                                   ELEMENTS
      TSUNAMIS:

 PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
    ENCOMPASS THE
  LITHOSPHERE, CORE,
MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE,
   HYDROSPHERE, AND
      BIOSPHERE
PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI
PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
 AGENTS OF AN TSUNAMI
     TSUNAMI HAZARDS
 (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD
  WATER WAVES
• WAVE RUNUP
• FLOODING
• WAVE RETREAT
• SHORELINE EROSION
TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP
                    CAUSES OF
                    CAUSES OF
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER

                        HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
                            INCOMING WAVES

                        INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
                                 RUNUP

                        VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
                                 RUNUP

                       INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
 TSUNAMIS
 TSUNAMIS                     BUILDINGS

                               FLOODING
CASE HISTORIES
CASE HISTORIES

                             NO WARNING, OR
                          INADEQUATE WARNING

                        PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
                               TSUNAMI
   SEVERE WINDSTORMS
  HURRICANES/TYPHOONS:

 PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OF
  THE SUN, HYDROSPHERE,
ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE,
      AND BIOSPHERE
HURRICANE PHYSICS
PHYSICS OF A TYPHOON
 HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM
 (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE
  OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55
  mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)
                    CAUSES OF
                    CAUSES OF
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER
                            WIND AND WATER
                          PENETRATE BUILDING
                               ENVELOPE

                         UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM


                        FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES
                                WINDOWS

  SEVERE                 STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
   SEVERE
                             PRECIPITATION
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
                           IRREGULARITIES IN
CASE HISTORIES
CASE HISTORIES            ELEVATION AND PLAN


                           POOR WORKMANSHIP

                            FAILURE OF NON-
                         STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
         RISK ASSESSMENT
        •SEVERE                                     ACCEPTABLE RISK
        WINDSTORMS                   RISK
        •INVENTORY
                                                   UNACCEPTABLE RISK
        •VULNERABILITY
        •LOCATION



                                                  SEVERE WINDSTORM
                                                  RISK REDUCTION
        DATA BASES
        DATA BASES
        AND INFORMATION
        AND INFORMATION


                               Storm Hazards:
                               -Wind pressure         POLICY OPTIONS
Gradient Wind
                               -Surge
                               -Rain            •PREPAREDNESS
                Wind profile   -Flood
                                                •PROTECTION
                               -Waves
                               -Salt water
                                                •EMERGENCY RESPONSE
                     Ocean
                     Ocean                      •RECOVERY
                               -Missiles
 COMMUNITY
 COMMUNITY                     -Tornadoes       • EDUCATIONAL SURGES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS:

        PHYSICAL
     INTERACTIONS
   ENCOMPASS THE
 LITHOSPHERE, CORE,
MANTLE, ATMOSPHERE,
    AND BIOSPHERE
PHYSICS OF AN EXPLOSIVE
       VOLCANO
ACTIVE VOLCANOES
HAZARDS OF A VOLCANIC
      ERUPTION
       VOLCANO HAZARDS
    (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

•   VERTICAL PLUME
•   ASH AND TEPHRA
•   LATERAL BLAST
•   PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
•   LAhARS
                    CAUSES OF
                    CAUSES OF
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER
                 DAMAGE/DISASTER

                          PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
                                 BLAST

                         IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
                                  FLOWS

                         IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
                                 (TEPHRA)

 VOLCANIC                IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
  VOLCANIC
                                (AVIATION)
 ERUPTIONS
 ERUPTIONS
                           IN PATH OF LAVA AND
CASE HISTORIES
CASE HISTORIES             PYROCLASTIC FLOWS


                            IN PATH OF LAHARS

                          IGNORING WARNING TO
                               EVACUATE
   RISK ASSESSMENT
                                        ACCEPTABLE RISK
 •HAZARD MAPS
 •INVENTORY               RISK
 •VULNERABILITY                       UNACCEPTABLE RISK
 •LOCATION



                                        DISASTER RISK
                                        REDUCTION
 DATA BASES
 DATA BASES            COMMUNITY
                       COMMUNITY
 AND INFORMATION
 AND INFORMATION



                                         POLICY OPTIONS


HAZARDS:
                                   •PREVENTION-MITIGATION
GROUND SHAKING                     •PREPAREDNESS
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING                   •EMERGENCY RESPONSE
TECTONIC DEFORMATION               •RECOVERY
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS                        •ADAPTATION
        FLOODS:

    PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE,
 LITHOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,
       AND BIOSPHERE
    FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA
 POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED
  WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO
  BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN
  THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE
• EROSION
• SCOUR
• MUDFLOWS
                 CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND
                 CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND
                       DISASTER
                       DISASTER

                              LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
                           STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN


                                 INUNDATION


                               INTERACTION WITH
                             HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

                             STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
  FLOODS                      DAMAGE FROM WATER
  FLOODS
                            WATER BORNE DISEASES
CASE HISTORIES
CASE HISTORIES               (HEALTH PROBLEMS)


                            EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

                           CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
                                   WATER
       WILDFIRES:

   PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE,
LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE
SCIENCE OF WILDFIRES
         WILDFIRES
         WILDFIRES
  are conflagrations caused by
   are conflagrations caused by
lightning discharges (or acts of
 lightning discharges (or acts of
man) in wilderness areas close
 man) in wilderness areas close
  enough to an urban interface
   enough to an urban interface
    that they threaten people,
     that they threaten people,
   property, infrastructure, and
   property, infrastructure, and
       business enterprise.
        business enterprise.
       WILDFIRE HAZARDS
    (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

•   FIRE
•   HOT GASES AND SMOKE
•   HOT SPOTS
•   BURNED OUT SLOPES (with
    increased susceptibility to insect
    infestation, erosion, and
    landslides)
    WILDFIRE HAZARDS
 (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• SUNDOWNER WINDS
• SANTA ANNA WINDS
• LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR
  QUALITY
• LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER
                CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND
                CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND
                      DISASTER
                      DISASTER

                             LIGHTNING STRIKES


                              MANMADE FIRES


                          PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA
                            TO THE WILDLAND FIRE

                          WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
 WILDFIRES
 WILDFIRES                       (DAY/NIGHT)

   DISASTER
   DISASTER                      DRYNESS
LABORATORIES
 LABORATORIES


                            HIGH TEMPERATURES


                             LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S
    “DEFAULT OPTION”
       (SEE PART II)

TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
 NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION:
             (PART III)

				
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