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					            TFIAM meeting
          27 May 2005 Berlin

               EEA scenario 2005 project :
          Low greenhouse gas emission pathways


            Presentation by Hans Eerens
     EEA Topic Centre Air and Climate Change
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)




It is not most important to predict the future,
but to be prepared for it
                 Perikles (about 500-429 b. Chr.)
1. Introduction, methodology
2. Energy and GHG projections
3. Regional air quality, emission trend and
   costs 2030
4. Urban background trend (PM10, NO2,
   SOMO-35)
5. Street increment (PM10, NO2)
   ETC/ACC partners and others involved:
• RIVM: IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR/EUROMOVE models, global
  scenarios, climate effects, coordination
• NTUA: PRIMES/GEM-E3/PROMETHEUS models, European
  energy system
• IIASA: RAINS model, European air quality
• DNMI: EMEP model
• AEAT: non-CO2 GHGs and non-energy CO2 emissions
• IPTS: POLES model, technology variants
• AUTH: OFIS, OSPM model, transport & urban Air Quality
• NILU: Air Pollution State & policies
• CCE: Air pollution effects on ecosystems/critical loads
• EEA: project guidance, links with issues other than air and
  climate change
    ETC/ACC SoEOR2005 subreport 6
             Introduction
                   Objectives:
•Explore air pollution and climate change
 trends and projections using 3 scenarios:
  –Long-Range Energy Modelling (LREM)
  –Low greenhouse gas Emission Pathways (LGEP)
  –Plus variants
•Target assessment on possible use for EU’s
 post-2012 debate
          SoEOR2005: flow chart of models used
M                         Economy         GEM-E3, PROMETHEUS


                                          Transport   Agriculture
                          PRIMES



     AEA-T                                                                               COPERT III,
                                                                     RAINS               TREMOVE,
     model
                                                                                         TREND

                          CO2                                        Emissions
    CH4, N2O,
    HFC, PFC,             (Europe)
                                                                                       MERLIN
    SF6 (Europe)
                                     CO2 Permit         EMEP
                                       Price                              OFIS
                                                                                         OPSM
    POLES                TIMER         FAIR

                                      Sinks           Regional concen-   Urban conc.
                                                      tration:SO2, NO,                   Street
                     CO2, CH4,                                           PM, NO2, O3
                                                      NH3, PM, O3                        increments
                     N2O, HFC,
                         PFC, SF6


          Energy Price               IMAGE
                                     WaterGap
                   CC impacts                                             AQ impacts
Focus air pollution assessment:
• Emission/effects/costs change between 2020
  and 2030 assuming:
  –   No climate change policies
  –   Increased climate change policies
  –   Different economic growth path
  –   High renewable/biomass ambition
  –   Increase/decrease use of nuclear energy

  Emission/activity due to various agricultural scenario’s:
  – CAP reform
  – Animlib (reduced border protection for pig & poultry,
    dairy liberalization)
  – Best environmental practice
Data availability and dissemination
• SoEOR2005 report
• SoEOR2005 sub reports
• SoEOR2005 technical papers
• Articles
• SoEOR2005 Scenario information platform
  (web-based application, indicator based
  country specific information) including
  maps
• presentations
                            LREM and LGEP emissions compared to SRES
                                           scenarios

                    1300

                    1100
CO2eq conc (ppmv)




                     900

                     700

                     500

                     300
                       1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
                                                      year
                           baseline   550mitigation      A1B   A2      B1      B2
         Global development in energy use 1980-2100:
 hydropower, non-thermal electricity, traditional biofuels, modern biofuels,
natural gas, oil and coal. Left baseline (1170 EJ by 2100), right LGEP (730

                               EJ by 2100)
        Permit prices assumed
              CAFE-KR              SEP     SEP-LE        SEP       SEP-LE
             Assumed permit price at EU-level1        Assumed global
Year
                                                      permit price
                                Euro (2000)/ton CO2
       Low     medium    High
2010    6        12       18        12         6         5          2
2015    8        16       24        20         6         6          1
2020    10       20       30        30        20         25        15
2025    10       20       30        50        40         45        35
2030    10       20       30        65        55         60        50
2040              -                  -         -        105        80
2050              -                  -         -        115        95
2075              -                  -         -        165        105
2100              -                  -         -        190        105
                                     Projected global energy investment 2000-2050 Investments in
                                respectively energy savings, electricity, modern biofuels and fossil fuel.
                                Left baseline (4400 thousand million €/year by 2100), right LGEP (4600

                                                                   thousand million €/year by 2100


                                    Global energy investments baseline 2000-2050                                     Global energy investments LGEP 1990-2050
Investment billion $(1995)




                             3000                                                                             3000
                                                                                                              2500




                                                                                           Billion (1995) $
                             2500
                             2000                                                                             2000
                                                                                                              1500
                             1500
                                                                                                              1000
                             1000
                                                                                                               500
                             500
                                                                                                                 0
                                0


                                                                                                                90
                                                                                                                94
                                                                                                                98
                                                                                                                02
                                                                                                                06
                                                                                                                10
                                                                                                                14
                                                                                                                18
                                                                                                                22
                                                                                                                26
                                                                                                                30
                                                                                                                34
                                                                                                                38
                                                                                                                42
                                                                                                                46
                                                                                                                50
                                                                                                              19
                                                                                                              19
                                                                                                              19
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                              20
                                 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

                                        fossil   modern biofuels   electricity   savings                                  fossil   modern biofuels   electricity   savings
                                              Past and projected prices of fossil fuels and
                                                                                    electricity 1970-2050

                                        Fossil prices prices baseline and LCEP 1970-2050
                               Left axis oil prices per barrel, right axis gas and coal prices per GJ                                                      OECD End-use costs (including tax) 1971-2050
                               48                                                                            8                                     45
                                                                                                                                                                                       Electricity-residential
                                                                                                             7                                     40
                               40
                                                                                            Baseline                                               35
$(1999)/barrel start of year




                                                                                                             6
                                                                                                                                                   30




                                                                                                                  Prices $(1999)/GJ
                               32




                                                                                                                                      $(1995)/Gj
                                                                                                             5
                                                                                               Baseline                                            25                  Oil-transport
                               24                 Oil                                                        4
                                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                             3
                               16              Gas                                                                                                 15                                                               LCEP
                                                                                             Baseline
                                                                                                             2                                     10
                                8                                                                  LCEP                                                    Coal-industrial
                                              Coal                                                           1                                     5                                                             Baseline

                                0                                                                             0                                    0
                                1970   1980    1990     2000   year   2010   2020    2030   2040          2050                                      1970   1980     1990     2000      2010     2020      2030    2040      2050
                                                                                                                                                                                    Year
                                       GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
                                                                       Kyoto:
               6000                                            FAIR: 6 Euro/ton CO2eq
                                                             PRIMES: 12 Euro/ton CO2eq

                                            Baseline
                                                                        Kyoto
               5000                                                                      LGEP (FAIR)
                                                                                                              Domestic
                                                  LGEP (PRIMES)                                               action

                                                                                                              Uncertainty range
               4000

                                                                                                              non-domestic (trade)
CO2eq (Mton)




               3000



                                                                                                               Commitment in LGEP
               2000
                          all numbers compared to 1990 (%)Result LGEP climate policy scenario
                                EU-25         EU-25     PRIMES FAIR          Range share
                       Year     Baseline     Commitment domestic domestic domestic
               1000   2020        +4%         -20%       -10%        -8%       50-60%
                      2030        +8%         -40%       -16%       -26%       50-70%
                      2040        +9%         -57%                 -48%         85%
                      2050        +7%         -64%                 -61%         95%
                  0
                   1990                    2000                     2010                  2020         2030              2040        2050
                                                               Avoided CO2 emissions
                                              4500


                                              4000                                                      Avoidable "baseline"
                                                                                                        emissions by sector:
Projected energy-related CO2 emissions (Mt)




                                              3500
                                                                                                           Transport

                                              3000                                                         Services

                                                                                                           Households
                                              2500
                                                                                                           Industry

                                                                                                           Energy Branch
                                              2000
                                                                  Emissions LCEP                           Electricity and Steam
                                                                                                           production
                                              1500


                                              1000


                                               500


                                                 0
                                                 2000   2005    2010      2015     2020   2025   2030
   Changes in the fuel mix of EU-25 gross inland energy
     consumption compared to the baseline in 2030

                   Renewable energy forms




                                   Nuclear




                              Natural gas




                                       Oil

                                                                             LCEP nuclear phase out

                                                                             LCEP nuclear accelerated
                                    Solids                                   LCEP renewables

                                                                             LCEP

-100%   -75%    -50%        -25%         0%      25%       50%        75%       100%      125%          150%
               Change in gross inland energy consumption compared to baseline (in 2030)
          Further CO2 reductions are possible through enhanced
        renewable deployment (meeting targets), while phasing out
           nuclear risks increasing emissions if these plants are
                           replaced by fossil fuels

        4500

        4000                                                                                 Transport

        3500
                                                                                             Services
        3000
                                                                                             Households
        2500
MtCO2




        2000                                                                                 Industry

        1500                                                                                 Energy branch
        1000
                                                                                             Electricity & Steam
         500                                                                                 production

           0
               1990   2000    2030 -    2030 - SEP   2030 - SEP    2030 -     2030 - incr.
                             baseline                   incr.      nuclear      nuclear
                                                     Renewables   phase-out
                          300                                                                     300
                                        Developed regions                                                          Developing regions

                          250                                                                     250
Index (year 2000 = 100)




                                                                            Index (year 2000 = 100)
                          200                                                                     200



                          150                                                                     150



                          100                                                                     100



                           50                                                                         50



                            0                                                                          0
                                baseline LGEP baseline LGEP baseline LGEP                                  baseline LGEP   baseline LGEP baseline LGEP
                                     NOx           SO2         NMVOC                                             NOx             SO2        NMVOC



                                      2000            2010 baseline    2020 baseline                             2030 baseline     2050 baseline

                                                      2010 LGEP        2020 LGEP                                 2030 LGEP         2050 LGEP


      Change in air pollutants emissions in developed and
   developing regions under the baseline and LGEP scenarios
                                                         relative to year 2000
                         100




                          80
Index (year 2000 =100)




                          60




                          40




                          20




                           0
                                 NOx          SO2         NMVOC         NH3        PM10


                               2000    2020 CAFE    2030 baseline   2030 LGEP   2030 LGEP-MFR



                         Change in emissions of air pollutants in the EU 25 region
                                                    relative to 2000
Identified anthropogenic contribution to modelled grid-average PM2.5
concentrations (annual mean, µg/m3) , 2000, 2020-CAFÉ, 2030-CC, 2030-CC-MFR
Percentage of total ecosystems area receiving nitrogen deposition above the critical
loads for the emissions of the year 2000 (top left panel), the current legislation for 2020
 (top right), the LGEP in 2030 and the maximum feasible reduction case for 2030
 (LGEP-B-MFR – bottom right panel).
Percentage of forest area receiving acid deposition above the critical
loads for the emissions of the year 2000 (top left panel), CAFE 2020 (top
right), LGEP (bottom left) and LGEP-MFR (bottom right panel).
                    1.Regional air quality and impacts




 Loss in statistical life expectancy that can be attributed to the identified
anthropogenic contributions to PM2.5 (in months) for the emissions of
the year 2000 (top left panel), ‘CAFE 2020’ (top right), the “LGEP”
(bottom left) and the LGEP-MFR (bottom right) panel).
                    1.Regional air quality and impacts




 Grid-average ozone concentrations in ppb.days expressed as SOMO35 for
the emissions of the year 2000 (top left panel), CAFE 2020 (top right), LGEP
(bottom left) and LGEP-MFR (bottom right panel).
Provisional estimates of premature mortality attributable to ozone
(cases of premature deaths per million inhabitants per year)
Percentage of total ecosystems area receiving nitrogen deposition
above the critical loads for eutrophication by country group and scenario
Country            2000              2020, CP                  2030, SEP
                              CLE           MFR        B-CLE   LE-CLE      B-MFR
Finland              0.7      0.7           0.2         0.7      0.7         0.2
Sweden              14.9      10.5          5.2         10.9    10.5         5.1
UK                   8.1      3.7           1.3         3.8      3.5         0.8
Norway              28.6      19.3          9.1         19.9    19.6         6.9
Switzerland         79.8      56.9              18.2   53.2      52.7       9.7
Average             22.6      15.4              7.3    15.8      15.5       5.9




 Percentage of freshwater ecosystems area receiving acid deposition above the
 critical loads for by scenario and country. Calculation results for the
 meteorological conditions of 1997, using grid-average deposition. Critical loads
 data base of 2004.
   Reductions in emissions compared with 2000:
                        Baseline 2030         LGEP      LGEP-MFR
          NOx               -47%              - 52 %      -75%
          NMVOC             -45%              - 45 %      -62%
          SO2               -67%              - 73 %      -87%
          NH3               - 6%               -5%        -43%
          PM10             - 38%              - 45 %      -67%
          PM2.5            - 46%              - 51 %      -73%



 2030:
                                                       LGEP     LGEP-MFR
  • Loss of statistical life expectancy:               - 44%      - 78%
  • Premature mortality due to ozone:                  - 16 %     - 51%
  • Forest area at risk of acidification:              - 56%      - 88%
  • Ecosystems’ area endangered by eutrophication      - 15 %     - 82%
Table 8: Air pollutant emissions; baseline compared to CP and LGEP
EU25 emissions                     kton                                        % change
                         LREM-E           2030, LGEP                          2030, LGEP
air pollutant    2000     2030      B-CLE   LE-CLE SER-CLE   B-MFR     B-CLE    LE-CLE SER-CLE   B-MFR
SO2              8736     2851       2371    2150    2342     1130      -16,8    -24,6   -17,9    -60,4
NOx              11581    6125       5524    4972    5550     2849       -9,8    -18,8    -9,4    -53,5
VOC              10654    5863       5877    5701    5912     4101        0,2     -2,8     0,8    -30,1
NH3              3824     3597       3582    3573    3584     2174       -0,4     -0,7    -0,4    -39,6
PM10             2455     1512       1357    1258    1344      817      -10,3    -16,8   -11,1    -46,0
PM2.5            1748      937        860     790     857      468       -8,2    -15,7    -8,5    -50,1



 Table Error! No text of specified style in document.-1: Total annual emissions (Kton) of
               air pollutants from international shipping for the European sea region.
                                                   2010                2020                 2030
                                                   SHIP-       SHIP-          SHIP-    SHIP- SHIP-
  Pollutant                       1990    2000     BAU         BAU            MFR      BAU MFR
  NOx                             2743    3501     4265        5207            595     6530      769
  NMVOC                            101     131      170         219            219      284      284
  SO2                             1874    2418     2652        3415            752     4406      972
  PM10                             171     222      270         348            298      450      385
  PM2.5                            162     210      255         330            282      426      364
                      Climate
                      change benefit




Emission control costs EU-25 billion Euro/year
                      The trend engine:

             What is included?
• About 50 crop and animal products/activities, covering
  agriculture according to the definition of Economic
  Accounts
• Plus some major derived products (dairy, oils and cakes)
• Areas/herd sizes, yields, market balances, producer and
  consumer prices, feed requirements …
• Time series from 1985 onwards, projected till 2030
• EU25 (minus Cyprus und Malta)
Table 4: Environmental indicators in the “best practice” scenario compared to the baseline run
in EU 23
Region : European Union                                 2001      2011         2015      2020         2025
Item : Environmental indicator per ha
(kg/ha)
Nitrogen                                Reference run     42.64      42.4        42.14     41.66        41.12
                                        Best practice     42.64     37.77        35.04     31.44        28.05
Potassium                               Reference run     31.44     29.54        29.12     28.52        28.01
                                        Best practice     31.44     19.92        16.27     12.26         8.81
Phosphate                               Reference run     15.89     14.44        14.02     13.42         12.8
                                        Best practice     15.89          9.4      7.05      4.04         1.03
Ammonium                                Reference run     19.45     19.68        19.87     20.04        20.21
                                        Best practice     19.45     14.28         12.3          9.8      7.32
Methane                                 Reference run     48.82     47.52        47.78          48      48.31
                                        Best practice     48.82     47.52        47.78          48      48.31
Nitrous oxide                           Reference run      2.98      3.07         3.11      3.16         3.21
                                        Best practice      2.98      2.88         2.83      2.77         2.72




           80% organic farming, full covered storage facilities, improved manure
           handling in the stable. Better application techniques as injections are
           assumed to reduce ammonia losses during application to 5% No changes
           are assumed regarding the grazing practice
Urban background:
• 20 Cities (MERLIN project), 53 million
  inhabitants
• EMEP regional background (1997)
• OFIS model urban background
• City specific fleet composition data
                                 Results for NO2 annual average
80
                                                                                                   observations
                                                                                                   OFIS
70                                                                                                 EMEP


60




50




40




30




20




10




 0
     ANTW ATHE BARC BERL BRUS BUDA COPE GDAN GRAZ HELS KATO   LISB   LOND MARS MILA   PARI PRAG ROME STUT THES
                                                  Comparison EMEP/OFIS results NO2 annual average 2000


                              80                                                                                                                                                       PRAG
                                                                                         2                           100                                                               BERL
                                                                                     R = 0.58
                                                                                                                                                                                       COPE
                              70                                                                                     90
                                                                                                                                                                                       MARS
                                                                                                                     80                                                                GDAN
                              60
                                                                                                                                                                                       LISB
                                                                                                                     70                                                                HELS
OFIS model results (μg/m 3)




                              50                                                                                                                                                       ROME




                                                                                                OFIS model (μg/m3)
                                                                                                                     60
                                                                                                                                                                                       BRUS
                              40                                                                                     50
                                                                                                                                                                                       ANTW
                                                                                                                                                                                       GRAZ
                                                                                                                     40                                                                THES
                              30
                                                                                                                                                                                       BUDA
                                                                                                                     30
                                                                                                                                                                                       LOND
                              20
                                                                                                                                                                                       MILA
                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                                                                       ATHE
                              10                                                                                     10                                                                KATO
                                                                                                                                                                                       PARI
                                                                                                                      0                                                                STUT
                              0
                                                                                                                           0   10   20   30   40     50     60    70   80   90   100
                                   0   10   20   30          40           50   60   70          80
                                                                                                                                              Observed (μg/m 3)
                                                                                                                                                                                       BARC
                                                      Observed (μg/m 3)
                                      NO2 (ug/m3)




                        0
                            10
                                 20
                                          30
                                                    40
                                                         50
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                                                                   Trend NO2 European cities 2000-2030




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                                                                   2000




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                                                                   2030-CC




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                                                                   2030-CC-MFR
Annual average ozone concentration (ug/m3)
                                              somo-35 (ppb.days)
    Lo




                     0
                         1000
                                2000
                                       3000
                                                  4000
                                                         5000
                                                                   6000
                                                                          7000
                                                                                 8000
                                                                                        9000
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                                                                                                  2030-CC-MFR




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                                                                                                                                      Trend somo-35 in European cities 2000-2030




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                                                                                               Coverage:55 Million inhabitants 2030
                                  PM10 annual mean values

50

                                                                                                           observations
                                                                                                           OFIS
                                                                                                           EMEP


40




30




20




10




 0
     ANTW ATHE BARC   BERL BRUS BUDA COPE GDAN GRAZ   HELS KATO   LISB   LOND MARS   MILA   PARI   PRAG ROME STUT   THES
         Summary results 20 cities, 55
           million inhabitants (2030)

                                          Population weighted average
                                   NO2                   PM10         O3 (SOMO35)
      Scenario          MIN AVE MAX EXC* MIN AVE MAX MIN AVE MAX
Reference year (2000)   13    37     51      5    8.2   16    30   1300 4890 8000
       LGEP             7.7   24     32      0    5.3   10    16   2000 4950 7400
     LGEPMFR            4.5   15     23      0    2.5   6     10   1500 4480 6600
two hypothetical street canyon configurations:
 street 1:narrow canyon with a traffic volume of 20,000
   vehicles per day
 street 2:wide canyon with a traffic volume of 60,000 vehicles
   per day
Orientation: East to West , centrally located, specific fleet
   composition, average vehicle speed of 26 km/h
             Average yearly wind speed considered per city


City   Wind speed (m/s)           City        Wind speed (m/s)

ANTW                3.10          KATO                    2.62

ATHE                3.07          LISB                    3.13

BARC                2.29          LOND                    3.74

BERL                2.83          MARS                    2.70

BRUS                3.06          MILA                    1.66

BUDA                2.27          PARI                    2.88

COPE                3.68          PRAG                    2.63

GDAN                3.44          ROME                    2.50

GRAZ                2.67          STUT                    2.48

HELS                3.15          THES                    1.90
Specific wind directions for each city
        Wind direction Frequency for THES          Wind direction Frequency for STUT
                          N                                          N
               NNW   12       NNE                         NNW   15       NNE
                     10
          NW                        NE               NW                        NE
                     8                                          10
                     6
    WNW                                  ENE   WNW                                  ENE
                     4                                          5
                     2
    W                0                    E    W                0                    E


    WSW                                  ESE   WSW                                  ESE


          SW                        SE               SW                        SE

               SSW            SSE                         SSW            SSE
                          S                                          S




        Wind direction Frequency for ROME          Wind direction Frequency for LISB
                          N                                          N
               NNW   10                                   NNW   25
                              NNE                                        NNE
                      8                                         20
          NW                        NE               NW                        NE
                      6                                         15
    WNW               4                  ENE   WNW              10                  ENE
                      2                                          5
    W                 0                   E    W                 0                   E


    WSW                                  ESE   WSW                                  ESE


          SW                        SE               SW                        SE

               SSW            SSE                         SSW            SSE
                          S                                          S
                         55
                                                                                                              measured   modelled
                         50

                         45

                         40
Concentration (μg/m 3)




                         35

                         30

                         25

                         20

                         15

                         10

                         5

                         0
                              ANTW ATHE BARC BERL BRUS BUDA COPE GDAN GRAZ HELS KATO LISB LOND MARS MILA   PARI PRAG ROME STUT THES




                              Mean annual NO2 street increments (μg/m3) in 20 European cities: OSPM
                              model results compared with observations
                         32
                         30                                                                                  measured   modelled
                         28
                         26
                         24
Concentration (μg/m 3)




                         22
                         20
                         18
                         16
                         14
                         12
                         10
                         8
                         6
                         4
                         2
                         0
                              ANTW ATHE BARC BERL BRUS BUDA COPE GDAN GRAZ HELS KATO LISB LOND MARS MILA   PARI PRAG ROME STUT THES




                              Mean annual PM10 street increments (μg/m3) in 20 European cities:
                              OSPM model results compared with observations.
• PM10: range modelled street increment 5-
  16 μg/m3,(average10.3μg/m3).
• PM10: Average measured street
  increment 11.1 μg/m3, (not including
  exceptionally large street increment for
  Lisbon).
• PM10, 16 station background-street pairs
  (< 1km distance) from airbase: 6.9 μg/m3
• HDV% and average vehicle speed per day
  most sensitive assumptions for street
  emission calculations
   basis reduction: discussions on Euro V and Euro VI held at EU level (European
   Commission, 2004)

 Reduction percentage of NOx emissions with respect to Euro IV (for PC and LDV) and to Euro V
(for HDV) for Euro V (for PC and LDV) and Euro VI (for HDV) compliant vehicles, according to the
four scenarios.
                    PC - LDV Gasoline          PC - LDV Diesel          HDV
Package 1           -                          -20%                     -50%
Package 2           -                          -20%                     -85%
Package 3           -                          -40%                     -85%
Package 4           -40%                       -20%                     -85%
Package 5           -40%                       -40%                     -85%

Reduction percentage of PM emissions with respect to Euro IV (for PC and LDV) and to
Euro V (for HDV) for Euro V (for PC and LDV) and Euro VI (for HDV) compliant vehicles,
according to the four scenarios.
                    PC - LDV Gasoline        PC - LDV Diesel          HDV
Package 1                                    -50%                     -0%
Package 2           -                        DPF                      -0%
Package 3           DPF (GDI)                DPF                      DPF
COPERT III,TRENDS and input traffic activity data originating from TREMOVE
(version 2.23 ).
   Development of NOx emission factor (%) for the two scenarios in Germany (reference year:
   2000)
    NOx             2010         2015         2020          2025           2030
    emissonfactor
    (%)             CLE    MFR   CLE    MFR   CLE    MFR    CLE     MFR    CLE     MFR
    PC Gasoline     36     36    22     20    17     13     16      12     17      12
    PC Diesel       108    108   105    78    102    54     98      38     100     30
    LDV             81     81    74     58    74     45     79      42     83      42
    HDV             67     67    46     42    34     25     32      15     36      11
    Buses           70     70    44     42    26     21     22      12     21      10

   Development of PM emission factor (%) for the two scenarios in Germany (reference year:
   2000)
                    2010         2015         2020         2025           2030

    PM emission
    factor (%)      CLE    MFR   CLE    MFR   CLE    MFR   CLE     MFR    CLE     MFR
    PC Diesel       69     69    69     44    70     26    69      15     70      11
    LDV             58     58    47     34    42     20    45      15     47      15
    HDV             54     54    30     29    17     13    12      6      13      5
    Buses           64     64    35     34    16     13    10      6      9       5
         SCENARIOS FOR SOEOR2005:
             CONCLUSIONS (II)
• LGEP does initiate changes, but does not yet (2030) requires a
  SEP
  fundamental “transition” in the European energy system.
• A sustainability transition meeting all EU’s climate and energy
  targets appears to be feasible, but at significant costs (400
  Euro/household/year in 2030); there is not one optimal solution -
    SEP
  > LGEP variants.
• Integrated CC&AP policies can result in cost savings, avoidance
  of trade-offs, and effective abatement of air pollutant and GHG
  emissions.
• A sustainability transition in Europe has to be viewed in a global
  context.
• The costs for medium term GHG emissions reductions are
  significant dependent on the assumed economic growth, as
  shown by a lower economic growth variant.
    While a transition such as LGEP can bring
  enormous benefits, it also presents substantial
                     challenges
• Benefits
 Decoupling of CO2 emissions from economic growth and reduced European
  contribution to global climate change
 Reduced emissions of air pollutants
 Reduced energy import dependency (-20%)
 Employment in industrial and agricultural sectors selling biofuels and clean
  and low energy technologies to Europe and the world

• Challenges
 Large changes required in the energy sector
 Difficult choices over controversial technologies such as nuclear power and
  carbon capture and storage
 Potential for energy efficiency is well-known, but achieving energy reductions
  in practice will require new policy approaches
 Costs may be small in relation to GDP, but are nevertheless large in real
  terms

				
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