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					Chemical and Biological Threats



       MARINA A. ABRAMS
       RESEARCH FELLOW


 SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAM
       GLOBAL GREEN USA
   GREEN CROSS INTERNATIONAL


      2012 FAS SYMPOSIUM
  PREVENTING CATASTROPHIC THREATS
       NOVEMBER 9, 2012
         CW Stockpile Security, Diversion, and
         Proliferation: States-Parties to CWC


 US ~ 2,844 MTs at Pueblo, CO and Blue Grass, KY

 Russia ~ 14,000 MTs
Shchuch’ye, Kizner, Mirny,
Leonidovka, Pochep

 Libya ~ 10-20 MTs

 Iraq ~ unknown quantity
     CW Stockpile Security: Non-States Parties to CWC


 Israel and Myanmar (Signatories)
 Angola, Egypt, North Korea,
  Somalia, South Sudan, and Syria
            Commercial Chemical Security and Safety


 4,913 declared dual-use industrial facilities across
  the globe
 ~ 200 OPCW inspections per year
 1,103 industrial sites in 81 countries inspected
 Transportation of deadly chemicals




Photos by Greenpeace
Enduring Biosecurity Threats
 in the Former Soviet Union
             Two Decades of Progress

About $1 billion to international programs between 1993
and 2011 to counter the biological proliferation risks posed
by the legacies of the Soviet Union:

   Biowarfare infrastructure destruction and conversion
   Relocation and consolidation of the pathogen collections
   Physical security upgrades
   Introduction of international biosafety regulations
   Cooperative research projects – scientists redirection
   Central Reference Laboratories for disease surveillance
   Ukraine (2010), Georgia in 2011,
   Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan to be built
                Dangerous Diseases
            Endemic and Hyper-Endemic

   Plague           Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever




Anthrax
                                                     Tularemia
                                                                     Brucellosis
                    Photos by Alexey Romanov “Kurban Ait celebration in Kazakhstan” at www.voxpopuli.com
          Closer Contact with Once-Wild Areas
               Increasing Risks of Infection

Urbanization

Mineral and oil exploration

 Labor migration

 Industrialization

  International travel
      Local Militant Islamist Groups

 Established international contacts

 Have the support of transnational terrorist networks
 Active participation in local conflicts:
- Civil war in Tajikistan (1992-1997)
- First Chechen War (1994-1996)
- Second Chechen War (1999-2000)
 Insurgencies in Kyrgyzstan in 1999, 2000



                         Photos from the website islamdin.com, affiliated with a terrorist group Caucasus Emirate
             Regional Terrorist Groups are Seeking
                 Greater Influence in Eurasia


 Recurring terrorist acts in Russia
 Current insurgencies on the Tajik-Afghan border
 More violent, lethal, and indiscriminate




   Photos from the website islamdin.com, affiliated with a terrorist group Caucasus Emirate
          Would They Use Biological Agents?

LOCAL AND REGIONAL GROUPS
 Focus their strategy on social and political grievances
 Unlikely use of biological agents against local populations
 Did not openly express any desire to acquire biological weapons
 Not innovative

TRANSNATIONAL GROUPS
 Intent to acquire and use biological pathogens
 Effectively use local military conflicts to promote their own agenda
 Provide local groups with weapons, funds, and training camps


 Regional conflicts become part of the world jihad campaign
 International networks could also use their contacts in the former
  Soviet Union to obtain biological pathogens
                        Train More Specialists

      Increasing vulnerability to biological incidents


 The region is losing world-class, Soviet-trained epidemiologists

 Long-term human resource problems

- Still high-risk job but no previous prestige

- No good salaries and benefits

- Higher-education institutions
  are no longer producing sufficient numbers
  of qualified professionals

       Photo: Courtesy of the Scientific and Practical Center of Sanitary and Epidemiological Expertise and Monitoring (SPCSEEM), Kazakhstan
               Train More Specialists

 Cooperate with regional governments to resuscitate education and
  training in the public-health sector.

 Ensure that new generations of specialists are trained in the whole
  spectrum of infectious diseases.

 Pressure the region’s governments to increase budget allocations for
  scientific-research institutions responsible for disease monitoring and
  outbreak containment.




                             Photos: Courtesy of the Research Institute for Biosafety Problems (RIBSP), Kazakhstan
      Strengthen Personnel Policies

 Current personnel policies are weak
 Potential for “insider” threats
 Frequent and multidisciplinary discussions
  since 2001 in US and Europe.




 Include the former Soviet nations in these discussions.
 Assist the region’s government regulators and facility
  managers with developing better personnel regulations.
              THANK YOU !

                QUESTIONS?
E-mail:
mvoronova@globalgreen.org
marina.abrams2011@gmail.com




                   Photo by Alexey Romanov “Kurban Ait celebration in Kazakhstan” at www.voxpopuli.com

				
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