People and International Politics

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					“States of Concern”


Predicting Foreign Policy Behavior
Which states pose greater threats than
others?
 Commonly used criteria:
     “Rogue states:” States that ignore international
      norms and international law
     “Revisionist states:” States that seek to upset
      the status quo
     “Failed states:” States that lack government
      authority due to collapse, extreme poverty or
      civil war
I. “Rogue States”
A. Characteristics:
  1.   Ignore international law
  2.   Build “weapons of mass destruction”
  3.   Sponsor terrorism
  4.   Violate the human rights of their own people
B. Which states meet these criteria?
Rogue States: The American View (1998)
Compare 1998, 2002, 2005 speeches
 1998: “Rogue States” -- Iran, Iraq, Libya (85%
  of mentions)
      Other mentions: Sudan, North Korea, Serbia,
       Cuba
 2002: “Axis of Evil” -- Iran, Iraq, North Korea
      “Beyond the Axis of Evil” Speech (2002):
       Libya, Syria, Cuba
 2005: “Outposts of Tyranny“ – Cuba, Iran,
  North Korea, Belarus, Zimbabwe, Myanmar
1. Who ignores international law?
 What is the only country which managed to
  violate the Chemical Weapons Convention,
  the Nonproliferation Treaty, and the Biological
  Weapons Convention all at the same time?

     North Korea, but…
     Iran is probably trying
1. Who ignores international law?
 What is the only state opposing an “anytime
  anywhere” inspection system under the
  Biological Weapons Convention, similar to
  the one that already exists under the
  Chemical Weapons Convention?

     United States
1. Who ignores international law?
 Which two states have not ratified “the most
  widely and rapidly ratified human rights treaty
  in history,” the UN Convention on the Rights
  of the Child?

     Somalia and
     United States
1. Who ignores international law?
 What is the only country which has failed to
  ratify at least one of the following treaties:
  Chemical Weapons Convention, the
  Nonproliferation Treaty, and the Biological
  Weapons Convention?

     Israel
2. Who has WMD?
Suspected Arsenals: 9 Nuke, 5 Biological, 10 Chemical



                                ?

                                ?
3. Who sponsors terrorism?
 Which state sponsored the following act?
     After a prominent dissident escapes the
      country and proceeds to criticize his
      government back home, that government
      sends a secret agent with an umbrella. The
      umbrella has a tiny poison capsule in its tip.
      The dissident is “accidentally” poked with the
      tip of the umbrella and dies the next day.
          Bulgaria (while still Communist)
3. Who sponsors terrorism?
 Which state sponsored the following group?
     An Islamic fundamentalist group fighting a civil
      war has the nasty habit of tying down prisoners,
      pouring gunpowder on their eyeballs and setting it
      alight. However, when it isn’t killing other groups
      in the civil war, it targets the military forces of a
      hated enemy. Its state sponsor gives it tons of
      weapons, including portable missiles for shooting
      down aircraft. It continues this aid even after the
      group targets a civilian airliner.
          United States (Gulbuddin Hekmatyar)
 3. Who sponsors terrorism?
 Which state sponsored the following group?
   This militia fought a vicious many-sided civil war,
    with tactics including car bombs that killed
    hundreds of civilians. Its sponsor provided it with
    weapons and intelligence. In fact, its sponsor
    established refugee camps for its opponents and
    allowed this group to enter the camps – the militia
    then indiscriminately slaughtered everyone it could
    find. The government continued its sponsorship for
    years following these massacres, even after the
    end of the civil war.
         Israel (the Phalange militia in Lebanon)
3. Who sponsors terrorism?
 Pakistan (Kashmiri insurgents)
 India (Tamil insurgents, Hindu fundamentalists)
 Iran (Hezbollah)
 Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea
 DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, Namibia,
  Congo Republic, etc.
    Let’s just say Africa…
 Wait a minute: Central America too
    …and Asia, North America, South America, Australia
      (!), and Europe…
 Problem: Just about everyone has provided some aid to
  “terrorists” / “freedom fighters”
4. Which states violate human rights?
 Autocracies: Repress dissent, rig elections, imprison or
  murder opponents, far more likely to commit “democide”
 Notable democracies:
      Israel: Assassinations, detention without trial, denial of
       voting rights, torture
      United States: Execution of juveniles (until 2005), secret
       and indefinite detention without trial, abuse of prisoners
      India: Selective enforcement of law, support for
       fundamentalist mobs, torture
      Europe: Migrants, Refugees, Ethnic minorities
      Japan: Racial discrimination, Secret executions
5. Conclusions
a. Many states ignore international law, including
   prominent democracies such as the US
b. Even more states sponsor terror in some form
c. Similarly, most states violate human rights – although
   mass killing is rare among democracies
d. Only WMD narrows the field substantially – and this
   field also includes prominent democracies
e. Summary: “Rogue state” is not a useful concept for
   predicting differences between states – perhaps we
   need something else to predict state-level foreign policy
   behavior
II. Are some states more aggressive?
A. Power
1. Great powers fight more – but also
   cooperate more (foreign aid, support for
   IGOs, etc)
2. Power cycle theory
  a.   Relative power follows a cycle
  b.   Certain points on the cycle create war risk
       (because they involve changes in
       expectations about the future)
                                   3

 Relative
Capability

                2                                     4




  1



                                Time

1 = Low Turning Point (Reversal from Decline to Growth)

2 = First Inflection Point (Reversal in Rate of Growth)

3 = High Turning Point (Reversal from Growth to Decline)


4 = Second Inflection Point (Reversal in Rate of Decline)
c. Evidence for Power Cycle Theory
c. Evidence for Power Cycle Theory
i.   Some inflection points correspond to major
     wars
c. Evidence for Power Cycle Theory
i.  Some inflection points correspond to major
    wars
ii. Prediction: US, Japan, Russia near danger
    zones
     B. Regime: Democracy makes a
     difference
1.  War initiation. Democracies:
   •  May be slightly less likely to wage war in general
   •  Are less likely to initiate war
   •  Rarely fight other democracies
   •  Turn to covert means when overt means are
      unpopular
2. Warfighting. Democracies at war:
   •  Win battles and wars more frequently
   •  Suffer fewer casualties
   •  Undermine enemy morale by taking prisoners
   •  Are not notably better at extracting resources to fight
      wars
3. War Termination. Democracies:
•   Are more likely to accept a draw once war is
    underway
•   Are more likely to win short wars than long ones
•   Reduce war involvement as casualties mount
•   Punish leaders for wars – even successful
    ones!
C. Other state-level theories of war
1. Status Inconsistency: States demand
   respect (difficult to measure)
2. Nationalism: May lead to irredentist
   demands (anecdotal, counterexamples)
3. Militarism: Prepare for war  war (requires
   dyadic analysis of arms races)
D. Conclusions: Which states are
aggressive?
1. Watch out for powerful countries at critical
   points
2. Democracies start fewer wars but fight just
   as often as autocracies
3. Evidence for status inconsistency, militarism
   and diversionary war is weak
4. Intangibles like “nationalism” are difficult to
   measure and evaluate
III. Using the Theories to Prioritize
Relationships
 Which relationships are most important?
     System level: Beware rising challengers and
      declining hegemons
     Dyad level: Beware mixed-regime dyads and
      contiguous rivals
     State level: Beware great powers and
      autocracies
A. Mapping Power
 Go ahead and indicate countries you think
  should be vital based on their power
1. Population: 2005
1. Population: 2050
2. Economics: GDP Per Capita
2. Economics: Hunger
3. Military: Spending
3. Military: WMD


               ?

               ?
3. Military: Spending as % GDP
4. Resources: Oil
B. Relations with the US
 Which countries should receive high priority
  due to relationships with America?
1. Military Aid
2. Bases and Troops
3. Trade
C. Flashpoints: Current and Recent Wars
Questions
1. What criteria should determine America’s
   areas of interest?
2. Which ten countries best meet those
   criteria?
3. Should the US change its current foreign
   policy towards any or all of these ten?

				
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posted:5/26/2013
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