RE_futues_HKI_March_2006 by langkunxg


									EU-Russia Relations:
Alternative Futures

Sergei Medvedev,
Higher School of Economics,
             Fifteen years of zastoi
   No evident crisis, but a perpetual stalemate
   3 gaps
     between   EU-Russia interdependence and the actual state of
     between political rhetoric the level of implementation
     between ‘strategic partnership’ and the lack of strategic
   Zastoi = stagnation, muddling through (a word from
    the Brezhnev era)
         supported by massive energy flows
         concealed by increased semiotic activity (strategies,
          partnerships, summits)
         The structural impediment
   No mega-incentive of Russian membership of the EU
     EU  political machinery not suited for dealing with non-
      acceding “partners”
     ENP a watered-down derivative of enlargement, “common
      spaces” a watered-down version of the ENP
   Russia not sure about the way to deal with the EU
     EU  a new political animal, a bureaucratic/technical, rather
      than strategic way of policy-making
     Russia defaults into tried and tested bilateralism
     The negativist strategy: “no intention to join the EU” as the
      main stated strategy… but is it enough?
            Building the scenarios

   Why? This is a way to fill the third gap (lack of
    strategic thinking)
     no intent to forecast, but rather to conceptualize and
      problematize EU-Russia relations
     explore possible options and risks
     find the points of compatibility/convergence of both
   How? A need to develop a forecasting instrument that
    would suit both Russia and the EU
     Common    denominators: globalization and adaptation
     Common    variable: re-defining the role of the nation-state
Building the scenarios
 GLOBAL TRENDS: Globalization and resistance

    KEY VARIABLE: Role of the nation-state

      E1                       R1
      E2                       R2
      E3                       R3

   European        ER3
   scenarios                scenarios
        Globalization and resistance
   De-Nationalization               Re-Nationalization
   Integration                      Fragmentation
       EU federalism                    Regionalization, localization
   Homogeneity                      Resistance/Identity
       Markets, liberalism              State as an anchor of identity
       Americanization                  Anti-Americanism
   New Economy                      Old Economy,
       networks                         oil, resources, hierarchy
   Crisis of the welfare state      State intervention
   Liberal imperialism
                                     Global terrorism
   New World Order
                                     Regional instability

    Key variable = Role of the Nation-state
        Role of the Nation-State
 In   the economy (Economic axis X):
    Liberal/ globalized / private / de-regulated/, or…
    Statist / Public / Regulated / protectionist

 In   politics (Political axis Y):
    Decentralized / networked / confederal, or…
    Centralized / integrated / unitary
            Generic chart

Statist                                 Economic axis    Liberal
Regulated                                                Global
                       Political axis

                Russia’s options

            R3: Bureaucratic            R1: Authoritarian
               Capitalism                Modernization

Statist                                                     Liberal
Regulated                                                   Global

                                           R2: Liberal

               Russian scenarios
   R1: Authoritarian modernization
     Model: South   Korea in the 1960s-1980s
   R2: Liberal modernization
     Model: East   Central Europe in the 1990s
   R3: Bureaucratic capitalism
     Model: Mexico,   Indonesia
    R1: Authoritarian modernization
   Political centralization
       “Administrative vertical”, “managed democracy”
       Limits on federalism and local autonomy
       East Asian models: South Korea1960s-70s?
       Corporatism / re-distribution of resource rent
   Liberal economic and social agenda
       Capital-intensive modernization projects
       Dismantling the paternalist social system
       WTO membership, OECD application
   Generally pro-Western foreign policy
       Extended cooperation with the US (terrorism, Greater Middle East?)
       Friction with EU, CoE, OSCE
           R2: Liberal modernization

   Political pluralism
       Resurgence of liberal parties/projects (support by the Kremlin?)
       Modernization from below, civil society development
   Extended federalism and regionalism
       Cross-border cooperation
   Full economic liberalization, de-monopolization
       Fighting the “Dutch disease” and resource dependence
       Development of the small and medium business
       Central European model (Poland, Czech Republic)
   Enhanced dialogue with the EU
       Not just economic interests, but normative affinity and legal
          R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism
   Informal state capitalism
       Corporations are private but de facto controlled by the state
       High ownership concentration / monopolies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.)
       Postponement of structural reform / stagnation / corruption
       Dependence on natural resources/ oil exports: Russia as a petro-state
   Authoritarian drift
       Privileged role for the bureaucratic corporation/security elite
       One-party rule (like in Japan, Mexico)
       A unitary territorial structure (appointing governors)
   “Cold peace” with the West
       Opposing the “Color Revolutions” in the CIS
                     EU options

            E3: Fortress                 E1: Global
              Europe                       Actor

Statist                                                 Liberal
Regulated                                               Global

                                         E2: Common
                                          Market Plus

                     EU scenarios
   E1: Global actor
     Political Union   (French concept)
   E2: Common Market Plus
     Economic   Union Plus (British concept)
   E3: Fortress Europe
     Isolationist view
                  E1: Global actor
   Success of constitutional referenda and institutional
     Moving   towards the political union
   Deepening and widening of the EU (accession of
    Turkey, Ukraine, etc.)
   Liberal economic policy: opening up EU markets to
   Consolidated foreign and security policy
     Enhanced Neighborhood      Policy
     Global role – out of the area
         E2: Common Market Plus
   Failure of the Constitution and of institutional reform
   Weakening of central institutions, re-nationalization
    and regionalization
     Emergence   of a “core Europe” of rich nations
     Proliferation of bilateralism

   No political union, “Common Market Plus”
   Globalization and liberalization of national and
    subregional markets
   Low-profile global role of the EU
              E3: Fortress Europe
   Powerful external variables /“globalization gone bad”:
     Global terrorism, WMD,   Islamic mobilization
     Role of the US and/or Russia
     climate change, catastrophic migration

   Enlargement stops at 25 + BG, ROM, CRO
   Limited institutional reform, with impact on JHA
     Securitization of   polity, stricter immigration/border control
   Economy: protectionism and state intervention
   Foreign policy: Isolationism, no global commitment
     Failure of   subregionalism and of neighborhood projects
         EU-Russia scenario matrix

                 Liberal       Authoritarian   Bureaucratic
               Modernization   Modernization    Capitalism

Global Actor    Partnership       Zastoi         Zastoi

                Partnership       Zastoi         Zastoi
 Market +
                Cold Peace      Cold Peace     Cold Peace
         EU-Russia scenarios:
    The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

   ER1: Partnership
     Probability: Low    (2)
   ER2: Cold Peace
     Probability: Medium       (3)
   ER3: Zastoi
     Probability: High   (4)
                 ER1: Partnership
   Development of EU-Russia institutions beyond the
    traditional neighborhood policy
    a  Special Partner status for Russia?
     acceptance by Russia of part of the acquis, institutional
   Full cooperation in the four common spaces
     Economy:   from the Free Trade Area to Common Economic
     CFSP: Cooperative security with Russia
     JHA: full cooperation (counterterrorism), visa-free status
      for Russia?
                    ER2: Cold Peace
   A combination of worst-case scenarios:
     deteriorating global  conditions: terrorism, WMD, migration
     global security alert, geopolitics, competition for resources
     “Fortress Europe” in the EU and/or bureaucratic capitalism
      in Russia
   EU and Russia increasingly alienated
     US-Russia  cooperation possible, over the head of the EU
     Russia’s unsuccessful attempts to divide the EU

   Raising visa and border barriers
     failure of   cross-border regionalism
   Trade disputes, delayed Russian entry into the WTO
                       ER3: Zastoi
   Continuation of present trends, stagnation of EU-
    Russia relations
   Loose institutions, hollow summits, bureaucratic
    squabbling between EU and Russia
   Lack of cohesion, rival visions of Russia in the EU
     Failure of the PCA follow-up Strategy (after 2007)
     Bilateralism with Russia (France, Germany, UK)
   Of four common spaces, only some cooperation in
    the First (economy) and Fourth (humanitarian)
     frictions in internal security (visas, borders, re-admission)
     competition in foreign policy (rivalry in the CIS: Ukraine,
      Moldova, Belarus, South Caucasus)
            Negative trends prevail
   Perpetuation of the current system in Russia
     Reproduced   in the 2007-08 election cycle
   This system is tolerated by the West, due to
     Russia’s territory / position/ geopolitics of size
     Oil/resources / geopolitics of energy
     Security/ geopolitics of terrorism
   Uncertainty in Europe
     Failure ofthe constitutional referenda / “Orange
      revolution” in the EU
     Europessimism, future of enlargement uncertain
     Russia not on top of the priority list
     No instruments, no leverage no cohesion in EU’s Russia-
Facilitating EU-Russia Partnership

   A liberal modernization scenario in Russia
   A global vision for the EU
   A special role for the bilateral relations
     Finnish presidency
     Traditional partnerships (Germany, France)

   Externalities to the EU-Russia relations
    A   drop in the oil prices

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