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					Deutsche Bank
Markets Research

North America                   Periodical                                            Date
United States                                                                         19 April 2013
                                US Equity Insights

                                                                                      David Bianco              Priya Hariani

1Q EPS not good or bad enough to                                                      Strategist
                                                                                      (+1 ) 212 250-8169
                                                                                                                Strategist
                                                                                                                (+1) 212 250-2766

break recent S&P price range                                                          david.bianco@db.com       priya.hariani@db.com


EPS Tracker: 1Q EPS likely to be good, not great                                      Ju Wang
103 S&P 500 companies or 1/3 of S&P EPS by weight reported 1Q results.                Strategist
Despite some bellwether misses, EPS beats are in-line with past quarters at           (+1) 212 250-7911
70% with a weighted surprise of 2.7%. The blended actual and estimated btm-           ju.wang@db.com
up EPS climbed $0.18 to $25.96 and is tracking 2.7% y/y growth. We expect
1Q to finalize at $26.50 or 5% y/y growth, not much higher. Analysts will likely
                                                                                      S&P 500 Key Forecasts
trim their 2013 estimate from $111.65, but 1Q results will make ~$110 or 5%
y/y growth credible for 2013.                                                         Price            1555.3
                                                                                      2013-end Target   1625
Bank NIMs, sluggish Tech, commodity & FX headwind weigh on EPS vs. GDP                12-month          1625
1Q US GDP growth to be reported on 4/26 is likely to show healthy growth              Target
despite fiscal drags. The divergence between fairly strong US GDP and yet             Next 5%+ move Uncertain
slow S&P revenue growth is mainly due to 1) net interest margin pressures at                            2012         2013E       2014E
banks; 2) flattish commodity prices; 3) FX drags from a stronger dollar; and 4)       Pro-forma EPS   $103.80       $109.00     $115.00
rising but not yet robust capex. Spending on IT equipment/software has yet to         P/E                15.1          14.3        13.5
turn up after weak 2H12. Comments from IBM and ORCL that transactions are
taking longer to close suggests indecision among corporate IT spenders as to          Related recent research                     Date
what kind of IT spending to pursue, cloud or conventional. But decisions will
                                                                                      All going to plan, but now wait      12 Apr 2013
be made in coming quarters and enterprise IT spending will improve and we             for more information
think big-cap Tech will capture a better share than current PEs imply.                Dollar restoration = Lower           17 Apr 2013
                                                                                      Gold/S&P 500 ratio
Expense management drives EPS beat at Banks despite NIM pressures
                                                                                      How did we get there, What's         05 Apr 2013
Two-thirds of S&P Banks beat on EPS with a weighted EPS surprise of 5.7%.
                                                                                      next
Loan growth remains sluggish and net interest margins continue to trend
lower as assets rollover to lower yields, but expense management and fewer
one-time items drove EPS surprises. Loan loss provisioning at 0.7% and loss
reserves at 2.5% imply limited potential to boost profits from reserve release.
Stay OW Financials for dividend hikes which should drive PE expansion
Bank balance sheets have healed and earnings have largely normalized, yet
dividends remain depressed. We forecast Banks dividends to increase by 35%
in 2013 and 40% in 2014 as the payout ratio increases from 20% in 2012 to
25% in 2013 and to 35% in 2014. Pre-crisis dividend payout ratio was 44%.
This should drive PE expansion from ~10x now to 12.5x assuming real COE of
8%. Trailing 4-qtr ROE of 10% suggests that P/B should increase to ~1.25x
from ~1x now. Banks remain our preferred US play over retailers given less
demanding valuations, stronger DPS growth and fierce competition in retailing.
S&P range bound until rates, FX and commodity volatility settles
We maintain the neutral stance that we adopted last week on the S&P until
macro reports and cross asset class signals confirm: 1) No US or global
midyear soft patch, 2) dollar appreciation is gradual and oil prices stabilize, 3)
spending on technology joins the upward trend in capex, 4) absent a soft
patch, interest rates only rise slowly. Given the influx and interactive conditions
within rates, currencies and commodities, selectivity is important within
Industrials, Energy and Materials. Industries within these 3 sectors are
decoupling from each other given shifts in Asia growth and commodity prices.
Our most to least preferred industries are Capital Goods, Chemicals, Oil
Services, the rest of Energy and lastly Metals & Mining. We consider Financials
and Technology the most undervalued sectors and advise tactical and strategic
OWs given their low PEs and strong DPS growth potential.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 054/04/2013.
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




EPS tracker: Most companies beat on EPS but miss on revenue
So far 103 S&P 500 companies or 1/3 of S&P EPS by weight reported 1Q results.
Despite misses at some bellwethers, EPS beats are in-line with past quarters at 70% of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Please e-mail us for earnings
reports with a weighted surprise of 2.7%. Btm-up EPS climbed by $0.18 this week to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   calendar                                         with                         company
$25.96 and EPS growth (actual plus estimate for yet to report) is tracking 2.7% y/y.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 details.

Sales beats at 38% of reports is worse than past few quarters mainly due to 1) net
interest margin pressures at banks; 2) flattish commodity prices; 3) FX drags from a
stronger dollar; and 4) rising but not yet robust capex. But, sales growth is expected to
improve to 2.8% y/y, after declining 1.4% in the 4Q12. Next week is the biggest
reporting week with 168 companies or 34% by EPS weight expected to report results.

We expect 1Q to finalize at $26.50 or 5% y/y growth, not much higher. Analysts will
likely trim their 2013 estimate from $111.65, but 1Q results will make ~$110 or 5% y/y
growth credible for 2013.

Figure 1: S&P EPS (%) to be reported each week                                                                                                                                                                                                               Figure 2: Sector EPS (%) reported and due next week


   40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       100%
                                                                              34%
   35%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        80%
   30%                                                26%
   25%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60%
                                                                                                18%
   20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40%
   15%
   10%                                5%                                                                                    5%                                                                                                                                20%
              4%                                                                                                                                  3%                            4%
     5%                                                                                                                                                                                                0%                      1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0%
     0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tech
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Financials




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Utilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Materials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Healthcare


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Industrials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Staples


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Energy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Telecom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Disc.
               Pre-season




                                                                               Week 3 (4/22)




                                                                                                                                                                                    Week 7 (5/20)
                                                              Week 2 (4/15)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    After 6/03
                                      Week 1 (4/08)




                                                                                                   Week 4 (4/29)


                                                                                                                            Week 5 (5/06)


                                                                                                                                                     Week 6 (5/13)




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Week 8 (5/27)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Reported                               To be reported (Week 3)

Figure 3: EPS and sales beat ratio (% of companies)                                                                                                                                                                                                          Figure 4: EPS and sales surprise (% weighted)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100%                                    12%
 100%
                            EPS                       Sales                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EPS (% shown)                                                 Sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                      86%
  90%                                                                                          80% 80%                                                                                                                                                        9%                                                                                                                                                                               7.2%
  80% 70% 70%                                                                 73%                                                                75%                                                                                                                                                                                           5.6%
              69% 69%                                                                                                       70%                                                                                                                               6%
  70%                                                                                                                                                                               65%                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2.7%    2.8%                                3.0%2.5%
                                                                                                                      60%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2.0%
  60%                                                                                     53%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3%       1.1%                                                                                 1.9%1.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1.2%                                                                                                                                       0.0%                                 0.0%0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                     46%
  50%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0%
              38% 41% 37% 39%                                                                    40%                                                                                                41%
  40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -0.3%
                                                                                                                                            30%                                                                                                              -3%
  30%                                                                                                                                                  25%                                                                                                                                                                       -3.1%
  20%                                                                                                                                                                                                       14%                                              -6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Utilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Healthcare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Industrials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ex. Fin




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Staples




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      S&P ex. both
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ex. EN & Fin




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Energy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Telecom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Tech
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ex. EN




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Materials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Financials




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Fin ex. BAC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Tech ex. APPL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Disc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     S&P




  10%
                            ex. Fin




                                                                                                                                                                                               Tech
                                                                                                                                    Financials




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Utilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Materials
                                                                                                                                                  Healthcare
                                          ex. EN




                                                                                                                                                                      Industrials
                                                                                                Staples
                                                      ex. EN & Fin




                                                                                                                   Energy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Telecom
                                                                                     Disc.
             S&P




Source: IBES Deutsche Bank for above charts.




Page 2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Figure 5: S&P 500 EPS growth y/y (1Q13 based on current estimates)
                                                    2010                                    2011                                     2012                         2013
                 EPS growth (y/y)     1Q10     2Q10        3Q10     4Q10     1Q11     2Q11       3Q11        4Q11     1Q12     2Q12       3Q12        4Q12     1Q13E
S&P 500                               74.3%    29.9%       37.4%    39.6%    15.6%    12.9%     19.4%        28.1%    8.5%     9.6%       1.9%        6.8%        2.7%
S&P 500 ex. Financials                50.3%    41.1%       24.5%    19.8%    17.4%    22.3%     20.7%        10.4%    7.8%      1.9%      -0.1%       5.3%        0.1%
S&P 500 ex. Energy                    74.7%    25.3%       38.2%    39.2%    12.7%     7.7%     14.1%        30.8%    9.7%     14.0%       4.1%       6.0%        3.5%
S&P 500 ex. Energy & Financials       47.3%    36.3%       23.5%    16.5%    14.0%    17.4%     14.3%         9.9%    9.2%      5.2%       2.2%       4.2%        0.6%

Consumer Discretionary                221.1%   79.8%       24.6%    17.7%    11.8%    15.2%      22.2%       13.8%    12.6%     8.8%      12.8%       10.9%      7.3%
Consumer Staples                      13.2%     8.5%        3.6%     3.1%     9.6%    11.6%      10.5%        4.3%     6.7%     4.4%       4.2%       10.5%      4.9%
Energy                                70.9%    78.0%       31.5%    42.3%    36.7%    49.6%      59.9%       12.8%     1.2%    -13.0%     -10.4%      11.8%     -2.2%
Financials                            672.3%   -6.7%       166.9%     NM      7.9%    -29.6%     13.1%         NM     11.7%    73.5%      11.9%       14.7%     14.4%
     Financials ex. BAC                        -5.6%       105.9%   322.4%   12.2%     4.1%          4.1%             16.5%    13.5%          33.1%   19.5%      10.0%
Health Care                           12.4%    14.9%        8.2%     9.2%    10.1%     8.0%       9.6%        7.7%     4.5%     5.2%          2.5%     3.3%       1.1%
Industrials                           13.4%    28.3%       50.0%    23.7%    37.3%    20.6%      21.6%       17.8%    18.0%    14.4%          5.9%    -3.7%      -1.5%
Information Technology                75.4%    70.9%       41.1%    22.8%    26.0%    22.8%      12.2%       17.7%    17.5%     8.6%          2.3%     2.8%      -3.1%
     Tech ex. AAPL                    74.4%    70.6%       38.5%    17.5%    19.1%    12.7%          7.1%     2.2%     4.3%     6.3%          -1.5%    3.9%       2.0%
Materials                             546.9%   131.4%      81.6%    67.7%    -18.5%   51.2%      30.9%       -19.9%    -8.9%   -15.3%     -26.5%      11.1%      -0.4%
Telecommunication Services             -4.7%    -0.6%      -13.8%   10.5%     5.2%     9.1%      22.9%       -22.6%     4.5%    -5.6%      -0.5%      -11.9%     -0.2%
Utilities                               1.3%     3.5%      11.7%    -5.0%     1.8%    11.4%       1.1%        -0.7%   -13.6%   -11.5%      -7.1%       7.3%       1.2%
S&P 500 ex. AAPL and BAC              78.9%    30.4%       32.6%    32.9%    15.2%    17.4%          17.3%   24.3%     6.8%     3.1%          4.0%     7.9%       3.0%
Source: Deutsche Bank




Figure 6: S&P 500 sales growth y/y (1Q13 based on current estimates)
                                                    2010                                   2011                                        2012                       2013
                 Sales growth (y/y)   1Q10     2Q10        3Q10     4Q10     1Q11     2Q11      3Q11         4Q11     1Q12     2Q12           3Q12    4Q12     1Q13E
S&P 500                               12.0%    10.4%       9.4%     11.4%    12.1%    13.1%    12.6%         9.0%     4.8%     2.9%           1.6%    -1.4%       2.8%
S&P 500 ex. Financials                12.6%    12.6%       10.1%    11.3%    14.4%    15.2%    14.2%         10.3%    5.2%     2.7%           1.7%    -2.2%       3.2%
S&P 500 ex. Energy                     6.0%     6.5%        6.7%    10.5%    11.2%    13.2%    12.6%         12.5%    8.7%     6.3%           4.6%     2.8%       2.6%
S&P 500 ex. Energy & Financials        9.1%    10.4%        8.7%     7.7%     9.3%    11.2%    10.7%          8.3%    6.5%     3.8%           2.2%    -0.4%       3.1%

Consumer Discretionary                12.3%    11.3%        5.4%     5.7%     7.7%    10.0%      11.1%       10.2%     6.6%     2.3%           2.9%    -1.7%      3.3%
Consumer Staples                       5.4%     6.2%        4.5%     7.0%    10.9%    12.6%      13.2%        8.7%     6.5%     3.1%           2.6%     0.5%      1.7%
Energy                                38.4%    26.7%       18.7%    33.5%    43.5%    38.5%      34.3%       20.2%    -0.8%    -2.1%          -0.7%   -10.4%      3.8%
Financials                             8.9%    -0.8%        5.5%    12.0%    -0.9%     0.1%       3.0%        0.1%     2.5%     3.8%           1.0%     4.1%     -0.1%
     Financials ex. BAC               11.6%     0.4%        5.8%    14.2%     0.8%     5.7%          2.6%    -0.8%     4.3%     1.1%          3.9%     6.0%      -0.5%
Health Care                           12.4%    10.9%        8.7%     3.2%     5.3%     6.9%       7.7%        5.2%    5.0%     7.7%           5.1%     3.6%      6.4%
Industrials                            0.0%     6.4%        8.7%    11.1%    10.3%     9.9%      10.7%        6.8%    8.5%     5.4%           1.1%    -1.8%      2.2%
Information Technology                17.2%    20.6%       18.4%    13.8%    15.8%    15.0%      10.7%       11.8%    9.6%     5.8%           3.0%    -6.1%      1.8%
     Tech ex. AAPL                    15.6%    18.4%       15.3%    9.6%     11.4%    10.0%          8.0%     4.7%     4.2%     3.7%          0.1%    -3.0%       0.7%
Materials                             25.3%    23.4%       18.4%    15.9%    17.5%    20.1%      16.8%       6.9%      5.6%    -2.3%          -5.8%    1.5%      -1.1%
Telecommunication Services             3.0%     2.7%        1.8%     2.4%     3.0%     7.6%       6.9%       8.6%      7.9%     3.2%           2.5%    0.9%       5.6%
Utilities                              2.0%     3.6%        9.8%     1.3%    -1.9%     9.1%       3.8%       3.6%     -4.0%    -3.8%          -0.9%   10.3%       7.6%
S&P 500 ex. AAPL and BAC              12.3%    10.6%        9.2%    11.2%    12.0%    13.5%          12.4%    8.2%     4.5%     2.3%          1.6%    -0.9%       2.7%
Source: Deutsche Bank




Figure 7: S&P 500 net margins (1Q13 based on current estimates)
                                                   2010                                       2011                                   2012                         2013
                  Net Margins (%)     1Q10     2Q10        3Q10     4Q10     1Q11     2Q11           3Q11    4Q11     1Q12     2Q12       3Q12        4Q12     1Q13E
S&P 500                               9.3%     9.5%        9.6%     9.2%     9.5%     9.5%           9.8%    9.1%     9.6%     9.8%       9.7%        9.8%        9.6%
S&P 500 ex. Financials                9.0%     9.2%        9.2%     9.0%     9.1%     9.6%           9.5%    8.8%     9.1%      9.3%      9.2%         9.4%       8.7%
S&P 500 ex. Energy                    9.4%     9.6%        9.8%     9.5%     9.8%     9.4%           9.9%    9.5%     9.9%     10.1%     10.0%        10.1%      10.0%
S&P 500 ex. Energy & Financials       9.2%     9.3%        9.3%     9.3%     9.3%     9.6%           9.5%    9.2%     9.3%      9.5%      9.4%         9.6%       9.0%

Consumer Discretionary                 6.3%     7.1%        6.5%     7.0%     6.4%    7.1%        6.9%        6.8%     6.3%     7.2%       7.2%        7.4%      6.4%
Consumer Staples                       6.0%     6.5%        6.5%     6.4%     5.8%    6.3%        6.2%        6.0%     5.7%     6.2%       6.2%        6.5%      5.8%
Energy                                 8.4%     8.6%        8.1%     7.7%     8.2%    9.5%        9.5%        7.1%     8.0%     8.1%       8.3%        8.6%      7.5%
Financials                            10.6%    11.2%       12.0%    10.6%    12.3%    8.5%       12.2%       11.6%    13.4%    13.2%      13.7%       12.8%     15.5%
     Financials ex. BAC               10.8%    11.5%       12.2%    11.3%    12.8%    12.0%          11.4%   12.1%    14.3%    13.5%          14.6%   13.5%      14.9%
Health Care                           10.7%    10.7%       10.6%     9.8%    10.9%    10.6%      10.6%        9.7%    10.5%    10.0%      10.2%       10.1%      9.8%
Industrials                            6.4%     7.9%        7.9%     8.0%     7.9%     8.6%       8.5%        8.6%     8.4%     9.1%       8.7%        8.4%      8.0%
Information Technology                16.7%    17.3%       17.9%    19.1%    17.9%    18.1%      17.7%       19.4%    18.7%    18.2%      17.3%       21.1%     17.6%
     Tech ex. AAPL                    16.3%    17.0%       17.6%    18.7%    17.2%    17.2%          17.0%   17.7%    16.9%    17.1%          16.4%   18.8%      15.0%
Materials                             17.1%    7.8%         7.3%    7.6%     9.9%     10.0%       8.2%       5.7%     8.5%     8.7%        6.5%       6.3%       8.6%
Telecommunication Services             6.7%    7.2%         6.2%    6.4%     7.0%      7.6%       7.6%       4.8%     7.1%     7.1%        7.3%       4.1%       6.6%
Utilities                              8.8%    9.2%        11.6%    7.4%     9.3%      9.6%      11.7%       7.4%     8.8%     9.3%       11.8%       7.8%       8.9%
S&P 500 ex. BAC and APPL               9.3%     9.5%        9.6%    9.2%      9.5%     9.7%          9.7%     8.9%     9.5%     9.7%          9.7%     9.6%       8.7%
Source: Deutsche Bank




Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.                                                                                                                                  Page 3
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Figure 8: S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Outlook (based on current constituents in the index)
                                 S&P 500 Quarterly EPS ($/sh)                      FC                 S&P 500 Quarterly Pro-forma Earnings ($ bn)
                                     GAAP                           Pro-forma   Bottom-up   S&P 500                  Financials             Non-financials
                                       EPS          Write-offs        EPS         ($/sh)                   y/y %                   y/y %                     y/y %
           2007 Q1                    20.15             1.63          21.78                  182.0          8%          48.8       12%          133.2        6%
                   Q2                 20.26             3.31          23.57                  197.5          8%          50.8       11%          146.7        7%
                   Q3                 19.98             2.48          22.46                  188.4          2%          42.2       -7%          146.2        5%
                   Q4                 11.27             8.13          19.40                  164.1         -10%         9.6        -80%         154.4        14%
                   Year              71.65             15.56          87.21                  732.0                     151.5                    580.5
           2008 Q1                    16.71             3.18          19.89                  168.3         -8%          20.2       -59%         148.1        11%
                   Q2                 17.24             4.64          21.87                  186.0         -6%          24.2       -52%         161.7        10%
                   Q3                 14.15             5.22          19.37                  165.9         -12%         2.5        -94%         163.4        12%
                   Q4                -18.50            25.56          7.06                   60.2          -63%        -62.7        NM          122.9        -20%
                   Year              29.60             38.59          68.19                  580.4                     -15.7                    596.2
           2009 Q1                    7.32              5.74          13.06                  111.7         -34%         9.9        -51%         101.7        -31%
                   Q2                 14.02             1.74          15.76                  135.7         -27%         22.8       -6%          112.9        -30%
                   Q3                 14.26             2.56          16.82                  147.1         -11%         17.7       618%         129.4        -21%
                   Q4                 14.34             2.50          16.84                  149.6        148%          3.4         NM          146.1        19%
                   Year              49.94             12.54          62.48                  543.9                     53.8                     490.1
           2010 Q1                    17.35             3.02          20.37                  183.1         64%          31.4       216%         151.7        49%
                   Q2                 20.02             1.37          21.39                  192.9         42%          32.6       43%          160.3        42%
                   Q3                 19.48             2.50          21.98                  198.2         35%          35.5       101%         162.7        26%
                   Q4                 20.74             1.88          22.62                  204.4         37%          30.4       788%         173.9        19%
                   Year              77.59              8.77          86.36                  778.6                     129.9                    648.7
           2011 Q1                    21.04             2.51          23.55                  214.1         17%          36.9       18%          177.2        17%
                   Q2                 22.26             1.81          24.07                  218.4         13%          24.6       -24%         193.8        21%
                   Q3                 22.39             3.14          25.54                  229.6         16%          36.7        3%          192.9        19%
                   Q4                 22.85             1.91          24.76                  221.7          8%          34.2       12%          187.5        8%
                   Year              88.54              9.38          97.92                  883.8                     132.4                    751.4
           2012 Q1                    23.36             2.02          25.38       25.60      227.4          6%          41.2       12%          186.2        5%
                   Q2                 22.41             3.64          26.05       25.84      232.6          6%          40.2       63%          192.4        -1%
                   Q3                 21.39             4.49          25.88       26.00      231.5          1%          42.2       15%          189.3        -2%
                   Q4                 20.63             5.59          26.22       26.32      233.9          5%          38.6       13%          195.3        4%
                   Year              87.79             15.74         103.53      103.76      925.3                     162.2                    763.2
          2013 Q1E                    24.00             2.50          26.50       25.96      236.0          4%          43.0        4%          193.0        4%
                   Q2E                25.00             2.00          27.00       27.50      243.0          4%          44.0       10%          199.0        3%
                   Q3E                24.50             2.50          27.00       28.50      243.0          5%          43.0        2%          200.0        6%
                   Q4E                25.50             3.00          28.50       29.88      253.0          8%          45.0       17%          208.0        6%
                   Year E            99.00             10.00         109.00      111.84      975.6                     175.0                    800.0
          2014 Year E                105.00            10.00         115.00      124.37     1030.0                     186.0                    844.0
Source: Reuters Global Financials , IBES/FirstCall, Deutsche Bank




Page 4                                                                                                                               Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




OW Financials, dividend hikes should drive PE expansion
Bank balance sheets have healed and earnings have largely normalized, yet dividends
and valuations remain depressed. We forecast Banks’ dividends to increase by 35% in
2013 and 40% in 2014 as the payout ratio increases from 20% in 2012 to 25% in 2013
and to 35% in 2014. Pre-crisis dividend payout ratio was 44%. This should drive PE
expansion from ~10x now to 12.5x assuming real COE of 8%. Trailing 4-qtr ROE of 10%
suggests that P/B should increase to ~1.25x from ~1x now. Banks remain our preferred
US play over retailers given less demanding valuations, stronger DPS growth and fierce
competition in retailing.

Figure 9: Net interest margins at S&P 500 banks – NIM                                                                                               Figure 10: Loan loss provisioning has normalized and loss
pressures will remain as assets rollover to lower yields                                                                                            reserves at 2.5% imply limited potential to boost earnings
3.4%
                                                                                                                                                    5%
3.2%

3.0%                                                                                                                                                4%

2.8%                                                                                                                                                3%
2.6%
                                                                                                                                                    2%
2.4%

2.2%                                                                                                                                                1%

2.0%
                                                                                                                                                    0%
          1Q04


                         1Q05


                                       1Q06


                                                     1Q07


                                                                    1Q08


                                                                                  1Q09


                                                                                                 1Q10


                                                                                                                1Q11


                                                                                                                              1Q12


                                                                                                                                             1Q13
                 3Q04


                                3Q05


                                              3Q06


                                                            3Q07


                                                                           3Q08


                                                                                          3Q09


                                                                                                        3Q10


                                                                                                                       3Q11


                                                                                                                                      3Q12




                                                                                                                                                          1Q04
                                                                                                                                                                 3Q04


                                                                                                                                                                               3Q05
                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q06


                                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q07
                                                                                                                                                                                                              3Q07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3Q08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1Q09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1Q10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3Q10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1Q11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3Q11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1Q12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3Q12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Q13
                                                                                                                                                                        1Q05



                                                                                                                                                                                              3Q06



                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1Q08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3Q09
                                                                   Net Interest Margin                                                                                                  Loss Reserves                                                     Provisioning
Source: Company reports, Deutsche Bank                                                                                                              Source: Company reports, Deutsche Bank




Figure 11: ROE on trailing 4-qtr EPS (incl. and ex BAC)                                                                                             Figure 12: Dividend payout ratio

 20.0%                                                                                                                                               80.0%

 15.0%                                                                                                                                               70.0%
                                                                                                                                                     60.0%                                                                                                                     2013E: 25%
 10.0%
                                                                                                                                                     50.0%                                                                                                                     2014E: 35%
   5.0%
                                                                                                                                                     40.0%
   0.0%
                                                                                                                                                     30.0%
  -5.0%
                                                                                                                                                     20.0%
-10.0%                                                                                                                                               10.0%
-15.0%                                                                                                                                                0.0%
             4Q05




                                       2Q07

                                                4Q07

                                                        2Q08



                                                                           2Q09

                                                                                   4Q09

                                                                                            2Q10

                                                                                                    4Q10



                                                                                                                       4Q11

                                                                                                                               2Q12

                                                                                                                                        4Q12




                                                                                                                                                                 4Q05
                                                                                                                                                                        2Q06
                                                                                                                                                                               4Q06
                                                                                                                                                                                       2Q07
                                                                                                                                                                                               4Q07
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2Q08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2Q09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4Q09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4Q10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2Q11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4Q11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2Q12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4Q12
                        2Q06

                                4Q06




                                                                   4Q08




                                                                                                               2Q11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                4Q08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2Q10




                                                            ROE                             ex. BAC                                                                                                          Dividend payout ratio
Source: Company reports, Deutsche Bank                                                                                                              Source: Company reports, Deutsche Bank




Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Page 5
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Figure 13: Implied P/E and P/B upside assuming a real cost of equity of 8%
                         Ticker        Name                               P/E*           P/B           ROE*
                         BAC           Bank of America Corp                       29.0          0.58       2.0%
                         JPM           JPMorgan Chase & Co                         8.5          0.96      11.4%
                         C             Citigroup Inc                              11.0          0.74       6.8%
                         WFC           Wells Fargo & Co                           10.4          1.36      13.0%
                         STI           SunTrust Banks Inc                          7.7          0.77      10.0%
                         USB           US Bancorp                                 11.5          1.76      15.3%
                         PNC           PNC Financial Services Group Inc           10.5          1.00       9.5%
                         KEY           KeyCorp                                    10.9          0.91       8.3%
                         BBT           BB&T Corp                                  11.3          1.25      11.1%
                         CMA           Comerica Inc                               13.2          0.96       7.3%
                         FHN           First Horizon National Corp        NM                    1.10      -0.6%
                         FITB          Fifth Third Bancorp                         9.8          1.10      11.2%
                         HBAN          Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH               10.2          1.13      11.0%
                         MTB           M&T Bank Corp                              12.9          1.41      10.9%
                         RF            Regions Financial Corp                      9.4          0.66       7.1%
                         ZION          Zions Bancorporation                       17.0          0.72       4.2%

                         Average (weighted)                                       11.2          0.92       8.2%
                         Average ex. BAC                                          10.1          1.03      10.3%
                         Median                                                   10.9          0.98       9.8%
                         Fair PE (1/ Real COE of 8%)                              12.5
                         Fair P/B (ROE/Real COE of 8%)                                          1.28
                         Implied upside (Average ex. BAC)                        24.2%         24.2%

Note: P/E and ROE is based on trailing 4-quarter EPS
Source: Deutsche Bank




Page 6                                                                                                            Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                               US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                    19 April 2013
                                2013 Strategy Flashcard
                                               2013 Strategy Flashcard
                                               Strategic View
                                               5 years since S&P 500 peak and stocks remain out-of-favor and undervalued                     Buy stocks on old bear growls…
                                               S&P 500 2013 end target:           1625          Div yld.   ~2.5%     Total ret.     ~16%     1) Unsustainable margins
                                                                                                                                             2) Shiller's PE
                                                                          2012        2013     2014                 2013 quarterly EPS       3) Deleveraging
                                               EPS                        $103        $109     $115                 1Q13           $26.50    4) Euro implosion
                                               PE on S&P target            15.3        14.9     14.1                2Q13           $27.00    5) China bubble
                                               DPS                         $31         $35      $39                 3Q13           $27.00    Dare to ask: Why not 1800?
                                               EPS/DPS growth                       6%/12% 5.5%/11%                 4Q13           $28.50    1800 = ~16.5x EPS of $108 - 110
                                               Tactical View                                                                                 S&P 500 avg. trailing 4qtr PE:
                                               Crisis fatigue: 2013 another year of low volatility and only shallow dips?                    1960-2012         15.9
                                               Consider lesson of 2012: Risks with calendar dates should be bought                           1985-2012         17.7
                                               Next 5%+ move is likely:         Uncertain Risk of near-term correction:           Moderate   2005-2012         15.8
                                               Thematic and sector strategy:                                                                 Sectors/Industries
                                               Tilt toward:
                                               1) Global Growth - stocks with high foreign and export sales                                  Tech, Industrials
                                               2) Capex Plays - stocks with high exposure to investment spending                             Tech, Industrials
                                               3) Dividend Growth - stocks with ability to raise dividend payout ratios                      Financials, Tech
                                               4) Debt Capacity - stocks that can issue cheap debt for acquisitions/buybacks                 Tech, Ind, HC, Staples
                                               5) Economic Profit Growth - above avg PE stocks justified by value added growth
                                               Tilt away from:
                                               1) Holes-in-ground - commodity and construction plays, prefer suppliers                       Energy, Mining
                                               2) Middlemen - retailers without control of unique/branded products                           Retailers
                                               3) Bond Substitutes - stocks with high PE and high dividend payout                            Utilities, Telecom
                                               4) Consumer Stuff - underpaid/overtaxed consumers want experiences not stuff                  Staples, Retailers
                                               5) Guns or Butter - government spending exposed stocks via entitlements and defense           Healthcare, Defense
                                               Risks
                                               - US tax on foreign profits, whether repatriated or not, threatens large multinationals
                                               - A collapse in commodity prices, especially oil, threatens investment spending
                                               - Any economic shock would threaten our advised >1 beta positioning for 2013
                                Source: Deutsche Bank
Page 7
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       19 April 2013
                                Seven Signs
                                The strategic safety signals remain safe across asset classes except for Credit (“Cautious”). The current risk aversion levels are “Normal” indicated by all asset
                                classes except Interest Rates and Inflation. The incremental risk aversion indicated by the 4 week moving average of different asset classes is mixed.

                                Figure 14: The Seven Signs: cross asset class market signals
                                                                                                         Current   1 week               Change in     Level                            PCTL Rel Risk Aversion  Incremental       Strategic                 Safe
                                "The Seven Signs"              Cross Market Class Signals                  Level   Change 4 Week Avg. 4 Week Avg.   1yr Ago    5yr Avg.   20yr Avg.   to History        Level Risk Aversion         Safety             Criteria
                                Interest Rates and Inflation   US Treasury bond yields                                                                                                                   High            Up           Safe
                                Policy buyers may distort       10yr Treasury yield                       1.70%    -0.02%       1.78%      -0.16%     1.97%      2.83%       4.71%        100%           High            Up            Yes          below 5%
                                interest rates                  10yr TIPS yield                          -0.62%     0.10%      -0.67%      -0.06%    -0.25%      0.78%       1.40%          94%          High            Up            Yes          below 3%
                                                                10yr Treasury - TIPS spread               2.32%    -0.12%       2.46%      -0.10%     2.22%      2.05%       2.21%          59%        Normal            Up            Yes         bet. 1 - 3%
                                                                30yr Treasury yield                       2.88%    -0.04%       2.99%      -0.16%     3.12%      3.80%       5.26%          96%          High            Up            Yes          below 7%
                                Duration                                                                                                                                                              Normal             Up           Safe
                                                               US Treasury yield curve slope (10-2yr)     1.47%    -0.02%       1.55%      -0.15%    1.70%       2.07%       1.14%          30%        Normal            Up            Yes      above 120bps
                                Credit                                                                                                                                                                Normal           Flat      Cautious
                                                               Corporate IG credit spreads
                                                                 Financial                                156.6       2.3       158.3         1.1     265.5      229.1       128.1         76%          High           Up              Yes          below 200
                                                                 Industrial                               133.1       2.9       133.8         1.6     159.6      159.5       139.2         56%        Normal           Up              Yes          below 200
                                                                 Financial spreads over Industrial         23.5      -0.6        24.4        -0.5     105.9       69.6       -11.1         78%          High         Down              Yes           below 50
                                                               TED spreads (bps)                           23.1       1.4        21.8         2.8      40.0       51.0        45.0         18%           Low           Up              Yes           below 50
                                                               Muni spreads                                55.8       8.1        49.0        13.1      40.4       11.6         0.0         86%          High           Up              No            below 25
                                                               Sovereign spreads
                                                                 Germany                                  -45.4       0.7       -51.1        -1.4     -27.6      -12.6       -28.6         30%           Low           Up              Yes     bet. -100 - 100
                                                                 France                                     8.7       0.4        10.7        -4.8       0.0       40.8        -7.7         51%        Normal         Down              Yes      below 100bps
                                                                 Italy                                    251.3      -8.6       268.4        -3.9       0.0      196.1       115.2         66%        Normal         Down              No      below 200 bps
                                                                 Spain                                    290.7      -5.1       303.5         1.5       0.0      200.0        94.9         69%        Normal           Up              No      below 200 bps
                                Currency                                                                                                                                                              Normal           Up             Safe
                                                               US Dollar index                            75.97     -0.1%       76.14        0.5%     72.88      74.58       87.20                                     Up
                                                                USD/EUR                                  1.3050     -0.5%      1.2965       -0.4%    1.3138     1.3624      1.2129         36%        Normal           Up              Yes       $1.25 - $1.40
                                                                JPY/USD                                   99.54      1.2%       96.57        2.2%     81.60      88.19      107.06         88%          High         Down
                                                                CHF/USD                                  0.9339      0.7%      0.9388       -0.4%       0.92       1.00        1.29        97%          High           Up
                                                                USD/gold                                 1399.7     -6.7%      1528.3       -3.8%    1640.6     1304.6       625.9         96%          High         Down
                                Commodities                                                                                                                                                           Normal          Flat            Safe
                                                               CRB                                       476.12     -0.7%       478.9       -0.1%    487.54     454.76      324.02                                     Up
                                                                Oil Brent                                 99.86     -3.2%      105.81       -4.9%    117.24      92.87       47.44         91%        Normal           Up              Yes         $95 - $115
                                                                Oil WTI                                   88.01     -3.6%       92.98        0.9%    102.27      85.40       46.73         96%        Normal         Down              Yes         $85 - $100
                                                                Natural gas                                4.37      6.3%        4.08       15.7%      1.85       4.43        4.32         58%        Normal         Down              Yes
                                                                Copper                                    7061      -6.8%     7433.26       -4.0%   8094.00    7260.94     4016.57                    Normal           Up
                                Uncertainty                    VIX                                                                                                                                    Normal          Flat            Safe
                                                                1M Implied Vol                              15.0      4.5        11.8         0.0      16.5       22.1        19.4         31%           Low           Up              Yes           below 24
                                                                1M Realized Vol                             14.3      5.0         9.9        -1.6      13.9       21.3        16.5         54%        Normal         Down              Yes           below 24
                                                                1M Vol Premium (Implied - Realized)          0.6     -0.6         1.9         1.6       2.6        0.8         1.8         30%           Low           Up              Yes            below 5
                                                                1M Skew (90% - 110%)                        10.5      3.5         9.1        -0.4      11.7       11.3        10.6         55%        Normal         Down              Yes           below 12
                                                                LTM PE / 3m Avg. VIX                        1.09    -0.05        1.11        0.10      0.79       0.68        1.00         56%        Normal           Up              Yes            0.8 - 1.2
                                                               Correlation (S&P 500)                                                                                                                                          Vol shot up and correlation
                                                                1M Implied Correlation                      36.0     13.2        30.3        -5.1      42.4       46.6        37.4         50%                                back to historic avg level
                                                                1M Realized Correlation                     46.1     18.5        30.7        -4.7      45.9       42.9        29.9         87%
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.




                                                                1M Correl Premium (Implied - Realized)     -10.1     -5.3        -0.4        -0.4      -3.5        3.6         2.8          8%
                                Offered Equity Risk Premium                                                                                                                                           Normal         Down             Safe
                                                               LTM PE                                      14.9     -3.2%        15.1        1.9%      13.9       15.2        18.7         62%        Normal         Down              Yes          below 18
                                                               PE on 2013E EPS                             14.4                                                                                       Normal         Down              Yes          below 16
                                                               PE on normalized 2013E EPS                  14.4                                                                                       Normal         Down              Yes          below 16
                                                               Implied real return offered by S&P 500      6.9%                                                                                       Normal         Down              Yes          above 6%
                                                               Implied ERP offered by S&P 500              7.6%                                                                                       Normal         Down              Yes          above 4%
                                Source: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      19 April 2013
                                Figure 15: Advised S&P 500 Sector and Industry Allocation (2013 PE based on DB US Equity Strategy top down sector and industry EPS estimates)
                                               Market     Target                         2013   2014                                     2013     2014                                      2013    2014                                           2013   2014
                                                                            Sector                                  Overweight                                        Equalweight                                          Underweight
                                               Weight (%) Weight (%)                      PE     PE                                       PE       PE                                        PE      PE                                             PE     PE
                                                                                                     Computers & Peripherals              8.2      8.0
                                                                                                     Communications Equipment             12.1    11.5
                                                                                                     Electronic Equipment                 12.7    12.1
                                                                         Information                 Internet Software & Services         18.3    16.3
                                                   17.3%        20.3%                    12.0   11.3
                                                                         Technology                  IT Services                          14.6    13.7
                                                                                                     Office Electronics                   7.4      6.9
                                                                                                     Software                             11.8    11.1
                                                                                                     Semiconductors                       14.8    13.5
                                  Overweight                                                         Aerospace & Defense                  13.8    13.2   Air Freight & Logistics            16.4    15.2   Airlines                                14.9   12.1
                                                                                                     Electrical Equipment                 15.5    14.7   Construction & Engineering         14.1    13.2   Building Products                       34.4   27.5
                                                   9.9%         11.9%     Industrials    14.2   13.4
                                                                                                     Industrial Conglomerates             13.9    13.1   Professional Services              17.3    15.6   Commercial Services & Supplies          19.4   17.6
                                                                                                     Machinery                            11.9    11.2   Road & Rail                        14.7    13.8   Trading Companies & Distributors        25.0   22.9
                                                                                                     Capital Markets                      14.0    13.0                                                     Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)   21.9   20.8
                                                                                                     Commercial Banks                     10.5    10.2                                                     Real Estate Management & Development    17.1   14.5
                                                   16.0%        18.5%     Financials     12.6   11.9 Consumer Finance                     10.7    10.2                                                     Thrifts & Mortgage Finance              16.4   16.4
                                                                                                     Diversified Financial Services       11.5    10.6
                                                                                                       Insurance                          12.1    11.6
                                                                                                       Hotels Restaurants & Leisure       19.7    18.6                                                     Auto Components                         11.2   10.6
                                                                                                       Leisure Equipment & Products       15.6    14.5                                                     Automobiles                             10.2    9.6
                                                                                                       Media                              16.9    14.5                                                     Distributors                            17.0   16.3
                                                                          Consumer                     Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods    17.8    16.2                                                     Diversified Consumer Services           12.7   12.4
                                                   11.8%        11.8%                    17.5   16.2
                                                                         Discretionary                                                                                                                     Household Durables                      13.3   12.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Internet & Catalog Retail               56.3   39.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Multiline Retail                        15.1   14.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Specialty Retail                        17.4   16.3
                                 Equalweight
                                                                                                       Chemicals                          15.3    14.3                                                     Construction Materials
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Containers & Packaging                  13.8   12.5
                                                   3.3%          3.3%     Materials      14.0   12.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Metals & Mining                         9.3     8.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Paper & Forest Products                 15.4   13.8
                                                                                                       Pharmaceuticals                    14.8    14.3   Biotechnology                      22.5    21.7   Health Care Providers & Services        12.3   12.9
                                                                                                                                                         Health Care Equipment & Supplies   15.5    15.0
                                                   13.1%        13.1%    Health Care     15.4   15.0
                                                                                                                                                         Life Sciences Tools & Services     15.8    15.4
                                                                                                                                                         Health Care Technology             33.6    29.9
                                                   10.4%         7.4%       Energy       11.8   11.3 Energy Equipment & Services          12.7    11.0                                                     Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels              11.7   11.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Beverages                               19.5   18.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Food Products                           18.9   18.0
                                                                          Consumer                                                                                                                         Food & Staples Retailing                16.4   15.5
                                                   11.4%         9.6%                    18.1   17.2
                                                                           Staples                                                                                                                         Household Products                      19.9   19.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Personal Products                       26.2   23.8
                                 Underweight
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Tobacco                                 15.5   14.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Electric Utilities                      15.8   15.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Gas Utilities                           22.4   20.9
                                                   3.7%          2.5%      Utilities     16.7   16.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Independent Power Producers             18.6   17.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Multi-Utilities                         17.7   16.9
                                                   3.2%          1.7%      Telecom       22.5   21.4                                                                                                       Telecommunication Services              22.5   21.4
                                                                                                                                                         2013 & 2014 DB Strategy EPS        109.0   115.0 2013 & 2014 DB Strategy PE               14.3   13.5
                                                          S&P 500
                                                                                                       S&P 500 Price                     1555.3          FC Bottom-up Cons. EPS             111.7   124.4 FC Bottom-up Cons. PE                    13.9   12.5

                                Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research
Page 9
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       19 April 2013
                                Figure 16: S&P 500 Annul EPS Outlook – S&P FC bottom-up EPS for 2013 is $111.65 and 1Q EPS is $25.96 now
                                                                                                                                                                                         FC Bottom-up                       DB US Equity Strategy           Normalized 2013
                                                                                        2005A         2006A    2007A    2008A    2009A    2010A    2011A      2012P     y/y     2013     y/y      2014    y/y     2013           y/y       2014       y/y     ($)     % of 2013

                                S&P 500 Pro-forma EPS                                  $76.28         $88.18   $85.12   $65.47   $60.80   $85.28   $97.82    $103.80    6.1%
                                (Historical Index)
                                S&P 500 Pro-forma EPS
                                (Current constituents)                                 $74.75         $86.27   $86.23   $69.66   $62.45   $85.59   $98.00    $103.09    5.2%   $111.65   8%     $124.36   11%   $109.00         5.7%     $115.00     5.5%   $109.00    100%
                                Sector ($ bn)
                                Consumer Discretionary                                   58.0          56.2     54.6     41.8     59.0     71.5     79.5      87.1      9%      95.3     9%      110.6    16%     93.0          6.8%       100.5     8.1%    93.0      100%
                                Consumer Staples                                         57.3          60.0     70.8     70.0     71.6     76.6     82.0      83.0      1%      89.9     8%       98.9    10%     87.5          5.4%       92.0      5.1%    87.5      100%
                                Energy                                                   95.1         115.8    118.0    137.7     60.9     95.5     133.9     118.8     -11%    124.1    4%      134.3    8%     122.0          2.7%       128.0     4.9%    122.0     100%
                                Financials                                              134.3         174.4    145.8     9.3      48.5    131.7     130.5     161.3     24%     185.9    15%     204.3    10%    176.0          9.1%       186.0     5.7%    176.0     100%
                                Health Care                                              68.1          73.6     82.4     88.0     93.1    103.4     109.2     113.8     4%      119.8    5%      130.4    9%     118.0          3.7%       120.5     2.1%    115.8      98%
                                Industrials                                              65.9          74.7     81.3     77.8     56.0     71.1     84.8      90.4      7%      97.7     8%      109.4    12%     96.0          6.1%       102.0     6.3%    96.0      100%
                                Information Technology                                   77.8          86.1     98.2    100.3    108.2    151.5     174.5     187.4     7%      196.2    5%      218.6    11%    200.0          6.7%       212.0     6.0%    200.0     100%
                                Materials                                                18.8          23.1     26.6     23.8     12.2     25.4     32.8      29.3      -11%    33.5     14%      39.5    18%     33.0         12.5%       36.0      9.1%    33.0      100%
                                Telecommunication Services                               18.0          21.0     21.7     17.8     17.7     17.8     18.8      17.8      -6%     21.8     23%      25.9    19%     19.5          9.8%       20.5      5.1%    19.5      100%
                                Utilities                                                21.7          23.7     25.7     27.4     27.3     28.8     30.0      30.8      3%      30.6     -1%      31.9    4%      30.6         -0.7%       31.5      2.8%    30.6      100%
                                S&P 500 ($ bn)                                          614.9         708.5    725.1    594.0    554.6    773.2     876.0     919.7     5%      994.8    8%      1103.8   8%     975.6          6.1%      1029.0     5.5%    973.4     100%
                                S&P 500 ex. Financials ($ bn)                           480.6         534.1    579.3    584.6    506.1    641.4     745.5     758.5     2%      808.9    7%      899.5    7%     799.6          5.4%       843.0     5.4%    797.4     100%
                                S&P 500 ex. Energy and Financials ($ bn)                385.5         418.3    461.3    447.0    445.2    545.9     611.6     639.7     5%      684.8    7%      969.6    7%     677.6          5.9%       715.0     5.5%    675.4     100%
                                Key Macro Forecast                                                                                                                                                                              DB Forecasts
                                Global GDP growth (real)                                4.5%          5.3%     5.4%     2.8%     -0.6%    5.1%      3.5%      2.9%                                                3.1%                     3.9%
                                US GDP growth (real)                                    3.1%          2.7%     1.9%     -0.3%    -3.5%    3.0%      1.7%      2.2%                                                2.3%                     2.9%
                                US Civilian Unemployment Rate (year-end)                4.9%          4.4%     5.0%     7.3%     9.9%     9.3%      8.5%      7.8%                                                7.0%                     6.4%
                                US 10yr Treasury Yield (year-end)                       4.4%          4.7%     3.9%     2.5%     3.8%     3.3%      1.9%      1.8%                                               2.75%                    3.75%
                                Loan Loss Provisioning (% of loans)                     0.8%          0.7%     1.3%     3.0%     4.2%     2.6%      1.2%      1.0%                                                0.9%                     0.8%              0.8%
                                US$/Euro (average/year-end)                           1.25/1.18 1.26/1.32 1.37/1.46 1.47/1.40 1.39/1.32 1.33/1.29 1.39/1.30 1.28/1.32                                           1.28/1.20                1.20/1.15           1.20
                                Avg Oil Price (WTI/Brent, $/bbl)                        56/54         66/65    72/72    100/97   61/61    79/79    95/111    94/111                                             90-95/110                ~90/110            ~85/110
                                Avg Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub $/mmbtu)                8.67          6.74     6.96     8.88     3.95     4.40     3.99      2.75                                               ~3.75                     ~4.00            ~ 4.00
                                Source: Company reports, First Call, Deutsche Bank Markets Research
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19 April 2013
                                Figure 17: EPS revisions – The % below shows the change in consensus estimate since the end of Feb. Energy Financials, and Utilities are the only three
                                sectors with positive EPS revisions.
                                 Cons. Disc. ($bn) – down 1.0%        Cons. Staples ($bn) – flat           Energy ($bn) – up 0.4%                  Financials ($bn) – up 0.9%
                                   130                                                                                                                                             110                                                                                                                            190                                                                                                                                               250
                                                                                                                                                              2014                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2014                       170                           2009                                                                                                                           2009                                                                            2012
                                   110                                                                                                               2013                          100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    200                                                                2011                                      2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2013                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                                    2012                                                                                                                                                                          150                                                                                                                       2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2012                                                                                                                                                                                             150
                                    90                                                                       2011                                                                   90                                                       2011                                                                 130                                                            2011
                                                          2009                                                                                                                                      2009                                                                                                                        2008                                                                                                                                100                                                                      2010
                                    70                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            110
                                                                                                                     2010                                                           80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010                                                           90                                                                                                                                                50
                                    50           2008                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010
                                                                                                                                                                                    70       2008                                                                                                                  70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                    30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             50




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           01-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           07-08

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           07-10

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   07-11

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           07-12

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                                                                                                                                                                                    60
                                            01-08

                                                           07-08

                                                                          01-09

                                                                                          07-09

                                                                                                     01-10

                                                                                                                 07-10

                                                                                                                            01-11

                                                                                                                                       07-11

                                                                                                                                                  01-12

                                                                                                                                                             07-12

                                                                                                                                                                        01-13




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                01-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    07-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            07-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    07-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                01-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            07-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    07-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    01-13
                                                                                                                                                                                         01-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                               01-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                07-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 01-12



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                          07-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     01-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           01-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      07-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            07-12
                                  Healthcare ($bn) – down 0.1%                                                                                                                     Industrials ($bn) – down 0.5%                                                                                                  Technology ($bn) – down 1.0%                                                                                                                      Materials ($bn) – down 2.4%
                                     140                                                                                                                                            120                                                                                                                           250                                                                                                                                                 50
                                                                                                                                                             2014                                                                                                                              2014                                                                                                                                     2014                                                 2009                                                                              2013                2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2013                                                                                                                                   2013
                                     130                                                                                                                                            110          2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 40                                                                                2012
                                                                                                                                                    2013                                                                                                     2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    100                                                                                                                           200                                                                               2012                                                                                                                        2011
                                     120                                                                                            2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30
                                                                                                                                                                                     90                                                                                                                                                                                          2011                                                                                                  2008
                                     110                                                                         2011                                                                                                                           2011
                                                    2009                                                                                                                             80          2008                                                                                                             150                 2009                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010
                                     100                                                                                                                                             70                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010
                                                                                                                  2010
                                                                                                                                                                                     60                                                             2010                                                          100                                                                                                                                                 10
                                        90                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2008
                                                    2008                                                                                                                             50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                        80




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       07-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           01-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   01-08

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           01-09



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       07-11

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                                                                                                                                                                                     40                                                                                                                            50
                                                 01-08



                                                                                 01-09




                                                                                                                    07-10




                                                                                                                                                     01-12



                                                                                                                                                                           01-13
                                                                 07-08



                                                                                             07-09

                                                                                                         01-10



                                                                                                                               01-11

                                                                                                                                          07-11



                                                                                                                                                                07-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               07-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        07-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    07-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                01-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             07-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         01-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      07-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  01-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           01-12



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-13
                                                                                                                                                                                            01-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                       07-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  01-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             07-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   07-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              01-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         07-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    01-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               07-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          01-13
                                  Telecom ($bn) – down 0.7%                                                                                                                        Utilities ($bn) – up 0.6%                                                                                                      S&P ex. Fin ($bn) – down 0.5%                                                                                                                     S&P 500 EPS ($/sh) – down 0.6%
                                   35                                                                                                                                                33                                                                                                                           1000                                                                                                                                              $140
                                                             2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2013 2014                                                                                                                                               2014                                                                                                                                          2014
                                                                                                                                                                                     32                                                                        2012                                                                                                                                                         2013                                                             2009                                                                                      2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   900                                                                                                                                              $120                                                                                       2012
                                   30                                                                                                                                                31              2009                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012
                                                                                                                                                                     2014            30                                                         2011                                                               800                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2009                                                                                                                           $100
                                                     2008                                                        2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2011
                                   25                                                                                                  2012                                          29
                                                                                                                                                             2013                                                                                                                                                  700                                                                                                                                                                     2008
                                                                                                                                                                                     28                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010
                                                                                                                                                                                     27             2008                                                                                                           600              2008                                                      2010
                                   20                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010                                                                                                                                                                                                         $60
                                                                                                                                                                                     26
                                                                                                                         2010                                                                                                                                                                                      500
                                                                                                                                                                                     25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $40
                                   15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   400




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          01-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   01-12
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      07-09

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   07-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   01-13
                                                                                                                                                                                     24
                                         01-08




                                                                                                                 07-10




                                                                                                                                                    01-12
                                                         07-08

                                                                         01-09

                                                                                         07-09

                                                                                                     01-10



                                                                                                                            01-11

                                                                                                                                        07-11



                                                                                                                                                               07-12

                                                                                                                                                                           01-13




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                07-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    01-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            01-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        07-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    01-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            01-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        07-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                07-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            01-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            07-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            01-13
                                                                                                                                                                                            01-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                       07-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  01-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             07-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        01-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   07-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              01-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         07-11

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          01-13
Page 11




                                Source: First Call, I/B/E/S and Deutsche Bank Markets Research
Page 12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       19 April 2013
                                Figure 18: What to buy now (large caps)? DB Buy-rated S&P 500 stocks in our OW Industrials with market cap > $10bn, PE on 2013 EPS < 20, 2013 EPS
                                growth > 5%, net debt/market cap < 30% for the non-financials
                                                                                                                                                       DB       DB Price            Mkt Cap Net Debt / P/E on 2012 EPS 2013 EPS             Div Payout 2013 DPS
                                Ticker      Company Name                    Sector                     Industry                                        Rating     Target    Price      ($m) Mkt Cap 2013 EPS    Growth   Growth Div Yield        Ratio   Growth
                                MCD         McDonald's Corp.                  Consumer Discretionary   Hotels Restaurants & Leisure                    Buy          110     99.88   100,159     11%       17.4      2%       7%     3.1%         54%       10%
                                WYNN        Wynn Resorts Ltd.                 Consumer Discretionary   Hotels Restaurants & Leisure                    Buy          146    127.58    12,874     25%       19.7     -4%      21%     3.1%        173%      -32%
                                CBS         CBS Corp (Cl B)                   Consumer Discretionary   Media                                           Buy           50     46.05    26,313     19%       15.6     31%      16%     1.0%         17%       18%
                                NWSA        News Corp. Cl A                   Consumer Discretionary   Media                                           Buy           37     31.21    47,471      9%       18.9     19%      17%     0.5%         17%      -43%
                                TWX         Time Warner Inc.                  Consumer Discretionary   Media                                           Buy           62     59.79    55,854     30%       16.2     13%      12%     1.9%         32%       11%
                                VIAB        Viacom Inc. Cl B                  Consumer Discretionary   Media                                           Buy           70     66.23    29,393     26%       13.9     11%      13%     1.7%         25%
                                DIS         Walt Disney Co.                   Consumer Discretionary   Media                                           Buy           63     61.44   110,917     10%       17.8     21%      13%     1.2%         20%       15%
                                LYB                                           Materials
                                            LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A                        Chemicals                                       Buy           75     57.82    33,270      2%        9.9     12%      11%     2.8%         28%       81%
                                BHI         Baker Hughes Inc.                 Energy                   Energy Equipment & Services                     Buy           59     43.58    19,255     20%       13.1    -25%       6%     1.4%         19%        0%
                                CAM         Cameron International Corp.       Energy                   Energy Equipment & Services                     Buy           76     59.15    14,665      3%       14.1     17%      34%     0.0%          0%
                                SLB         Schlumberger Ltd.                 Energy                   Energy Equipment & Services                     Buy           91     69.83    92,938      6%       14.8     14%      13%     1.8%         26%       16%
                                FITB        Fifth Third Bancorp               Financials               Commercial Banks                                Buy           17     16.38    14,320     66%        9.3     39%       6%     2.7%         22%       28%
                                PNC         PNC Financial Services Group Inc. Financials               Commercial Banks                                Buy           74     65.20    34,491     88%        9.5     -4%      18%     2.7%         27%       11%
                                USB         U.S. Bancorp                      Financials               Commercial Banks                                Buy           38     32.50    60,580     72%       10.6     19%       7%     2.4%         27%       13%
                                C           Citigroup Inc.                    Financials               Diversified Financial Services                  Buy           53     45.02   136,991    -18%        9.8      5%      19%     0.1%          1%        0%
                                JPM         JPMorgan Chase & Co.              Financials               Diversified Financial Services                  Buy           53     47.29   179,204     55%        8.4     16%       8%     2.5%         22%       32%
                                ALL         Allstate Corp.                    Financials               Insurance                                       Buy           53     48.97    22,919     -5%       10.1    230%      11%     2.0%         20%       14%
                                CB          Chubb Corp.                       Financials               Insurance                                       Buy           90     87.90    22,909     -5%       13.7      2%      22%     2.0%         31%        5%
                                MMC         Marsh & McLennan Cos.             Financials               Insurance                                       Buy           40     37.27    20,515      4%       15.8     21%      10%     2.5%         42%        7%
                                JNJ         Johnson & Johnson                 Health Care              Pharmaceuticals                                 Buy           87     84.32   235,846     -1%       15.6      2%       6%     2.9%         47%        7%
                                HON         Honeywell International Inc.      Industrials              Aerospace & Defense                             Buy           88     74.10    57,985      5%       15.1     11%       9%     2.2%         34%        7%
                                PCP         Precision Castparts Corp.         Industrials              Aerospace & Defense                             Buy          210    186.03    27,245     13%       19.1     21%      15%     0.1%          1%        2%
                                UTX         United Technologies Corp.         Industrials              Aerospace & Defense                             Buy          105     93.21    85,591     21%       15.5      1%      13%     2.3%         36%       19%
                                ROK         Rockwell Automation Inc.          Industrials              Electrical Equipment                            Buy          103     83.19    11,630     -1%       14.9      9%       7%     2.5%         33%       11%
                                GE          General Electric Co.              Industrials              Industrial Conglomerates                        Buy           28     21.76   225,620    199%       12.8     11%      12%     3.5%         45%       11%
                                ITW         Illinois Tool Works Inc.          Industrials              Machinery                                       Buy           73     60.55    27,336      8%       14.1      9%       6%     2.5%         36%        3%
                                QCOM        QUALCOMM Inc.                     Information Technology   Communications Equipment                        Buy           78     63.99   109,943    -12%       16.4     16%       5%     2.2%         23%      -11%
                                EMC         EMC Corp.                         Information Technology   Computers & Peripherals                         Buy           28     21.50    45,162    -10%       14.9    -13%      10%     0.0%          0%
                                NTAP        NetApp Inc.                       Information Technology   Computers & Peripherals                         Buy           40     33.01    11,897    -37%       19.5    -20%      24%     0.0%          0%
                                APH         Amphenol Corp. Cl A               Information Technology   Electronic Equipment Instruments & Components   Buy           76     72.70    11,610      7%       18.9     14%      11%     0.6%         12%        0%
                                GOOG        Google Inc. Cl A                  Information Technology   Internet Software & Services                    Buy          930    800.05   214,013    -20%       17.9     10%      12%     0.0%          0%
                                ACN         Accenture PLC                     Information Technology   IT Services                                     Buy           87     74.82    48,209    -12%       17.5     13%      12%     2.2%         35%       15%
                                CTSH                                          Information Technology
                                            Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.                       IT Services                                     Buy           92     67.94    20,551    -13%       17.2     21%      15%     0.0%          0%
                                IBM                                           Information Technology
                                            International Business Machines Corp.                      IT Services                                     Buy          225    190.10   211,868     10%       11.4     13%       9%     1.8%         22%        9%
                                DD          E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. Materials                     Chemicals                                       Buy           55     49.01    45,044     16%       12.6    -15%      17%     3.5%         51%        2%
                                PX          Praxair Inc.                      Materials                Chemicals                                       Buy          125    109.55    32,398     22%       18.3      3%       8%     2.2%         39%        9%
                                Source: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.




                                Note: The list has the following changes from our previous US Equity Insights report based on the screening rules: addition (TWX, FITB, JPM)
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    US Equity Insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         19 April 2013
                                Figure 19: What to buy now (mid and small caps)? DB Buy-rated non-S&P 500 stocks in our OW Industrials with market cap > $800m, PE on 2013 EPS <
                                25, 2013 EPS growth > 8%, net debt/market cap < 30% for the non-financials, price upside > 5%
                                                                                                                                              DB
                                                                                                                                       DB     Price Price                                        Mkt Cap Net Debt / P/E on 2012 EPS 2013 EPS
                                Ticker      Company Name                     Sector                   Industry                         Rating Target Upside   DB Analyst                 Price      ($m) Mkt Cap 2013 EPS Growth Growth Div Yield
                                DAN         Dana Holding Corp.               Consumer Discretionary   Auto Components                  Buy    22     38%      Patrick Nolan, CFA         15.97    2,362      -9%     8.5      5%      10%    1.3%
                                DLPH        Delphi Automotive PLC            Consumer Discretionary   Auto Components                  Buy    50     20%      Rod Lache                  41.84   13,198      10%    10.0     41%       9%    1.6%
                                SODA        SodaStream International Ltd.    Consumer Discretionary   Household Durables               Buy    56     10%      William Schmitz            50.72    1,051      -6%    17.1     31%      25%    0.0%
                                PVH         PVH Corp.                        Consumer Discretionary   Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo   Buy    125    18%      David Weiner              106.08    8,582      19%    16.5     22%      19%    0.1%
                                LVS         Las Vegas Sands Corp.            Consumer Discretionary   Hotels Restaurants & Leisure     Buy    58     9%       Carlo Santarelli           53.06   43,743      15%    21.3      6%      16%    2.6%
                                SHFL        SHFL Entertainment Inc.          Consumer Discretionary   Hotels Restaurants & Leisure     Buy    20     35%      Kelly Knybel               14.77      831      -4%    18.8     26%       9%    0.0%
                                DG          Dollar General Corp.             Consumer Discretionary   Multiline Retail                 Buy    55     6%       Paul Trussell              51.82   16,956      17%    16.0     23%      11%    0.0%
                                FL          Foot Locker Inc                  Consumer Discretionary   Specialty Retail                 Buy    39     22%      Paul Trussell              31.92    4,792     -17%    11.4     41%       9%    2.5%
                                PIR         Pier 1 Imports Inc.              Consumer Discretionary   Specialty Retail                 Buy    25     13%      Adam Sindler               22.19    2,377      -5%    16.9     28%      11%    0.9%
                                DKS         Dick's Sporting Goods Inc.       Consumer Discretionary   Specialty Retail                 Buy    54     15%      Michael Baker, CFA         47.00    4,611      -7%    16.5     25%      13%    1.1%
                                GNC         GNC Holdings Inc. Cl A           Consumer Discretionary   Specialty Retail                 Buy    50     20%      Shane Higgins              41.75    4,110      23%    14.9     53%      20%    1.4%
                                NUS         Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. Cl A    Consumer Staples         Personal Products                Buy    60     21%      William Schmitz            49.68    2,897      -5%    12.2     31%      16%    2.4%
                                OII         Oceaneering International Inc.   Energy                   Energy Equipment & Services      Buy    68     13%      Michael Urban              60.03    6,495       0%    18.0     23%      25%    1.2%
                                SHPG        Shire PLC ADR                    Health Care              Pharmaceuticals                  Buy    108    19%      David Steinberg            90.53   16,976      -2%    13.5     14%      10%    0.6%
                                HXL         Hexcel Corp.                     Industrials              Aerospace & Defense              Buy    35     25%      Amit Mehrotra              28.09    2,815       8%    15.5     26%      16%    0.0%
                                TGI         Triumph Group Inc.               Industrials              Aerospace & Defense              Buy    87     14%      Myles Walton               75.99    3,809      30%    11.0     22%      12%    0.2%
                                ITT         ITT Corp                         Industrials              Machinery                        Buy    34     29%      John G. Inch               26.43    2,450     -22%    13.9      5%      13%    1.5%
                                ALK         Alaska Air Group Inc.            Industrials              Airlines                         Buy    70     16%      Michael Linenberg          60.35    4,262      -5%    11.5     21%      11%    0.0%
                                SAVE        Spirit Airlines Inc.             Industrials              Airlines                         Buy    32     20%      Michael Linenberg          26.57    1,927     -22%    13.3      8%      40%    0.0%
                                ISIL        Intersil Corp. Cl A              Information Technology   Semiconductors & Semiconductor   Buy    10     36%      Ross C. Seymore             7.37      931     -18%    17.8   -151%     172%    6.5%
                                IACI        IAC/InterActiveCorp.             Information Technology   Internet Software & Services     Buy    62     41%      Ross Sandler               43.87    3,443      -5%    12.6     23%      26%    2.2%
                                YNDX        Yandex N.V. Cl A                 Information Technology   Internet Software & Services     Buy    31     54%      Ross Sandler               20.10    4,675      -9%     0.5   5294%      18%    0.0%
                                VRNT        Verint Systems Inc.              Information Technology   Software                         Buy    40     22%      Thomas Ernst               32.77    1,720      23%    12.4      7%     142%    0.0%
                                CE          Celanese Corp. Series A          Materials                Chemicals                        Buy    60     27%      David I. Begleiter, CFA    47.10    7,521      28%    10.1    -15%      14%    0.6%
                                CYT         Cytec Industries Inc.            Materials                Chemicals                        Buy    80     10%      David I. Begleiter, CFA    72.85    3,292      16%    15.3    -17%     136%    0.7%
                                FUL         H.B. Fuller Co.                  Materials                Chemicals                        Buy    46     20%      David I. Begleiter, CFA    38.41    1,933      17%    14.8     16%      16%    1.0%
                                Source: Deutsche Bank



                                Note: The list has the following changes from our previous US Equity Insights report based on the screening rules: addition (SODA, ALK), deletion (ALGT, FCS)

                                For screening purpose, our over-weight industries for small caps have the following difference from those for S&P 500: (1) UW small cap Financials; (2) OW all
                                industries in Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Health Care for small caps; (3) OW small cap Airlines. Within Financials, we prefer large caps
                                over small caps, especially large cap banks with capital market exposure. We overweight small cap consumer industries as a play on the recent strong retail
                                sales and consumer confidence reports. And a growing M&A wave should provide upside for small cap pharmaceuticals and airlines companies.
Page 13
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Figure 20: S&P 500 sector performance (total returns)
                                                                                                              Since 11/15/2012  Current Price
                                                       12 Month        YTD    1 Month 1 Week                   Market Trough     vs. 5yr High
S&P 500                                                    13.8%         8.8%    -0.3%   -3.2%                            15.0%          96.8%
Consumer Discretionary                                     19.2%        11.3%     1.5%   -2.8%                            18.5%          96.7%
Consumer Staples                                           22.1%        16.4%     4.5%   -0.4%                            19.9%          99.0%
Energy                                                      8.5%         4.3%    -3.9%   -5.3%                             8.6%          82.6%
Financials                                                 18.7%         9.2%    -1.9%   -3.9%                            18.7%          64.8%
Health Care                                                29.8%        18.2%     5.6%   -1.9%                            22.8%          97.9%
Industrials                                                12.3%         6.7%    -3.5%   -4.2%                            14.8%          95.7%
Information Technology                                     -4.0%        -0.1%    -4.2%   -4.5%                             5.6%          90.9%
Materials                                                   3.9%        -0.4%    -5.4%   -5.2%                             8.5%          82.2%
Telecommunication Services                                 33.8%        14.9%     6.1%   -0.2%                            18.0%          99.5%
Utilities                                                  20.4%        16.0%     5.6%   -0.1%                            20.5%          97.0%

Note:                     Two biggest outperforming (underperforming) sectors are highlighted in green (red)
                          All sectors within 5% of their 5 year high are highlighed in yellow
Source: Deutsche Bank



Figure 21: S&P 500 sector 12m vs. 1m performance
                         8%

                         6%                                                                                                     Telecom
                                                                                                  Utilities             Health Care
                                                                                                      Cons. Staples
                         4%
 1 M onth Total Return




                         2%
                                                                                              Cons. Disc.

                         0%
                                                                               S& P 500
                         -2%                                                                 Financials

                                                                             Industrials
                         -4%                                        Energy
                                     Tech
                                                       M aterials
                         -6%
                               -5%       0%          5%         10%          15%           20%         25%         30%            35%     40%
                                                                    12 M onth Total Return
Source: Deutsche Bank



Figure 22: S&P 500 sector ytd vs. mtd performance
                         6%
                                                                                                                 Telecom
                         4%
                                                                                                                      Utilities
                         2%
 M TD Total Return




                                                                                                                              Health Care
                                                                                                                       Cons. Staples

                         0%
                                                                                               Cons. Disc.
                                                                                  S& P 500
                         -2%                                                         Financials

                                                                         Industrials
                         -4%
                                         Tech
                                        M aterials
                                                              Energy
                         -6%
                               -2%    0%       2%       4%       6%       8%       10%       12%       14%       16%     18%       20%    22%
                                                                    YTD Total Return
Source: Deutsche Bank




Page 14                                                                                                                                          Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Figure 23: Russell 2000 sector ytd vs. mtd performance (price returns)
                                                                                                             Since 11/15/2012  Current Price
                                                         12 Month         YTD    1 Month 1 Week               Market Trough     vs. 5yr High
Russell 2000                                                 12.2%          6.1%    -4.4%   -4.8%                        17.2%          94.6%
Consumer Discretionary                                       13.8%          7.7%    -3.6%   -5.3%                        18.1%          94.7%
Consumer Staples                                             16.3%         10.1%    -0.1%   -2.0%                        17.2%          97.7%
Energy                                                       -0.4%          3.6%    -6.4%   -7.6%                        15.8%          54.7%
Financial Services                                           16.4%          7.7%    -2.7%   -4.0%                        17.7%          93.0%
Health Care                                                  19.6%         12.0%    -1.2%   -2.7%                        20.6%          97.3%
Materials & Processing                                       13.1%         -1.7%    -9.9%   -7.2%                        12.1%          88.9%
Producer Durables                                            11.5%          5.6%    -6.9%   -5.6%                        18.6%          92.1%
Information Technology                                        0.8%          1.0%    -7.2%   -5.9%                        13.8%          87.4%
Utilities                                                    16.4%          8.8%     1.9%   -1.7%                        17.2%          97.9%

Note:                       Two biggest outperforming (underperforming) sectors are highlighted in green (red)
                            All sectors within 5% of their 5 year high are highlighed in yellow
Source: Deutsche Bank



Figure 24: Russell 2000 sector ytd vs. mtd performance
                            4%

                            2%                                                                                   Utilities
   1 M onth Price Return




                            0%                                                                                   Cons. Staples
                                                                                                                           Health Care
                            -2%
                                                                                                                 Financial Svcs
                                                                                                         Cons. Disc.
                            -4%
                                                                                                  Russell 2000
                            -6%                       Energy
                                                         Tech                                    Producer Dur
                            -8%

                           -10%                                                                       M aterials & Proc

                           -12%
                                  -5%             0%                5%               10%               15%                20%             25%
                                                                          12 M onth Price Return
Source: Deutsche Bank



Figure 25: Russell 2000 sector ytd vs. mtd performance
                            2%

                            0%                                                                                   Utilities
   M TD Price Return




                                                                                                                          Cons. Staples
                           -2%
                                                                                                                                   Health Care

                                                                                                           Financial Svcs
                           -4%                                                                             Cons. Disc.
                                                                                                  Russell 2000
                           -6%
                                                                                  Energy
                           -8%                                                                 Producer Dur
                                                                   Tech
                                                   M aterials & Proc
                           -10%
                                  -4%      -2%          0%          2%          4%          6%          8%        10%           12%       14%
                                                                          YTD Price Return
Source: Deutsche Bank




Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.                                                                                                                    Page 15
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this
research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our
website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,
the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation
or view in this report. David Bianco/Priya Hariani/Ju Wang




Equity rating key                                           Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total                500
share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in                450                        51 %
                                                                     47 %
                                                               400
share price from current price to projected target price       350
plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that           300
                                                               250        48 %                43 %
investors buy the stock.                                       200
                                                               150
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-         100
                                                                                                             2 %31 %
holder return, we recommend that investors sell the             50
                                                                 0
stock
                                                                       Buy                 Hold                Sell
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months
out and, based on this time horizon, do not
                                                                      Companies Covered     Cos. w/ Banking Relationship
recommend either a Buy or Sell.
Notes:                                                                         North American Universe

1. Newly issued research recommendations and
target prices always supersede previously published
research.
2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:
       Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)
       of 10% or more over a 12-month period
       Hold:    Expected     total   return   (including
       dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-
       month period
       Sell: Expected total return (including dividends)
       of -10% or worse over a 12-month period




Page 16                                                                                                          Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
19 April 2013
US Equity Insights




Regulatory Disclosures
1. Important Additional Conflict Disclosures
Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the
"Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

2. Short-Term Trade Ideas
Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are
consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the
SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com.

3. Country-Specific Disclosures
Australia and New Zealand: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the
meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act respectively.
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its(their) securities, including in relation to Deutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) is
indirectly affected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank. In cases where
at least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starting with +55 country code) has taken part in the
preparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary responsibility for
its content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483.
EU      countries:     Disclosures    relating     to   our     obligations   under   MiFiD     can    be   found      at
http://www.globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures.
Japan: Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law: Company name - Deutsche Securities Inc.
Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau
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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.                                                                                     Page 17
                                                                                        David Folkerts-Landau
                                                                                          Global Head of Research

         Marcel Cassard                          Ralf Hoffmann & Bernhard Speyer                                              Guy Ashton                                             Richard Smith
          Global Head                                       Co-Heads                                                    Chief Operating Officer                                    Associate Director
         CB&S Research                                     DB Research                                                         Research                                             Equity Research

                         Asia-Pacific                                                              Germany                                                                   North America
                        Fergus Lynch                                                           Andreas Neubauer                                                               Steve Pollard
                        Regional Head                                                           Regional Head                                                                Regional Head


International locations
Deutsche Bank AG                                       Deutsche Bank AG                                       Deutsche Bank AG                                        Deutsche Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank Place                                    Große Gallusstraße 10-14                               Filiale Hongkong                                        2-11-1 Nagatacho
Level 16                                               60272 Frankfurt am Main                                International Commerce Centre,                          Sanno Park Tower
Corner of Hunter & Phillip Streets                     Germany                                                1 Austin Road West,Kowloon,                             Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171
Sydney, NSW 2000                                       Tel: (49) 69 910 00                                    Hong Kong                                               Japan
Australia                                                                                                     Tel: (852) 2203 8888                                    Tel: (81) 3 5156 6770
Tel: (61) 2 8258 1234
Deutsche Bank AG London                                Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
1 Great Winchester Street                              60 Wall Street
London EC2N 2EQ                                        New York, NY 10005
United Kingdom                                         United States of America
Tel: (44) 20 7545 8000                                 Tel: (1) 212 250 2500




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Description: 1Q EPS not good or bad enough to break recent S&P price range