Scenarios-India-resized.pptx - Livediverse

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					        Current tendencies and main drivers for the Térraba
        River Basin, the Greater Kruger Park, the Warana
        River Basin, Ba Be National Park and Na Hang
        Natural Reserve.

                                       By Alexander López and the team
                                       from WP8

Universidad Nacional
Costa Rica
A scenario is a description of how the future
may unfold based on if-then proposition and
typically consists of a representation of an
initial situation and a description of the key
driving forces and changes that lead to a
particular future state.

              Universidad Nacional, Escuela de
                 Relaciones Internacionales      3
         BUSINESS AS

CRISIS                     NT

   Business as usual are constructed based on
    future expectations of continuing present
   Fast development is constructed base on the
    improvement of current tendencies
   The crisis scenario is constructed on how
    condition might expect to deteriorate from the
    present state
   Policy scenario refers to the future effects of
    one given policy on drivers
   A storyline is a narrative description of a
    scenario, which highlights its main features
    and the relationships between the scenarios
    driving forces and its main features.
                                             Improved livelihoods

                               Fast development                     Policy

                                                                                  High biodiversity
            Low biodiversity

                                    Crisis                    Business as usual

                                             Reduced livelihoods

What are the (cultural-spiritual, socio-economic, and environmental) drivers that
 influence the relationship between biodiversity conservation and sustainable
   Foreign oriented market economy.

   Development of infrastructure.

   Environmental change.

   Low level of human development.
   Protected areas (terrestrial reserves)

   Land change cover (vegetation cover)

   Population growth.
   Infrastructure development.

   Unemployment .

   Agriculture production.

   Tourism and real state development.
   External exposure ( handicraft).

   Dependency on natural resources.

   Syncretism in cultural practices.
   A main concern is the trend of ownership
    passing to foreign investors through the
    purchase of lands by developers or
    international real estate firms looking to build
    large-scale residential complexes or hotels
    which constitute an abrupt and extreme change
    in land-use and demand on natural resources.
   A total of 18 protected areas are located within
    the Grande de Térraba River basin, making up
    37.4% of the catchment´s territory .

   The International Friendship Park located
    within the upper and middle sections of the
    basin, is the largest protected area stretching
    from the limits of Chirripo National Park
    (Costa Rica) to the Panamanian border.
   The Térraba-Sierpe National Wetlands has a great
    biological variety that supports the subsistence of
    surrounding communities. The wetland contains
    the largest and most significant quantity and
    variety of mangroves in Costa Rica.

   The wetlands are also important to the non-
    indigenous communities living in and around the
    park area who depend on raising livestock and the
    extraction of shellfish species like piangua,
    (Anadara tuberculosa).
   Census data from 1973, 1985 and 2000 shows
    that the Basin has experienced population
    growth of approximately 50.6% over the past
    35 years .
   Population density in the year 2000 was around
    31.9 inhabitants per square kilometer, a
    relatively low density when compared to the
    national average of 87 inhabitants per square
    kilometer .
   The area has been historically used for agriculture,
    especially extensive farming with a foreign oriented
    model, which, over the years, has altered the natural
    landscape of the zone.

   Pineapple is the recent example. PINDECO produced
    around 65% of the pineapple. Starting in 1990 the
    company transformed from simple production and began
    purchasing portions of the export crops from local
    independent growers.
   The pineapple industry in the Brunca Region currently
    accounts for about 21% of national production, with a
    total of 10,815 hectares of plantations and has gone from
    its place as the number one zone for pineapple production
    to the fourth largest producer in today’s national market.

   The introduction of African Oil Palms as cultivars (Elaeis
    guineensis) has had a positive impact on the area’s
    economy, absorbing labor that would have otherwise
    been unoccupied after the disappearance of the large
    banana and cacao companies
   The Diquís Hydroelectric Plant, PHED, will be the largest dam in
    Central America, with a reservoir measuring about 6,815
    hectares, of which 800 hectares are currently classified as
    indigenous territories.

   Approximately 1,100 people must be relocated to higher ground
    within the basin in order for the project to go forward

   The Diquís Project has budgeted financial compensation for
    those displaced, but the cultural and social attachment of these
    inhabitants to their lands remains a significant factor of
    opposition to the project, with many claiming that their identity
    would be lost if they were forced to be relocated.
   Consequences for agriculture in the Basin with the
    construction of the Diquís Hydroelectric Project would
    be concentrated mainly in modifications of land-use.

   Agricultural and livestock production would be most
    affected by the flooding of certain areas used for
    permanent and seasonal crops, as well as grazing
    zones for cattle.
   The case study area has been greatly impacted by
    real estate development along the Costeña Ridge.

   From January 2007 to September 2008 the amount of
    construction permits granted has grown 202%, from
    around 100 per year to over 735 construction projects
    in a span of approximately 20 months.

   This real estate “boom” is indicative of a lack of
    control and regulation on the part of Osa’s
    municipal government (Redondo y Villalobos, 2008).
    Socioeconomic indicators for the Brunca
    Region indicate very low levels of
    development, due to socioeconomic problems
    that have impacted the area over the past 25
    years, including the closure of the banana
    The Brunca Region today is the poorest area of
    Costa Rica, with 40.4% of the population living
    below the poverty line.
   Wages within the Grande de Térraba Basin are
    among the lowest in the country, with an
    average monthly income of around USD $150.
    The national average for monthly income is
    USD $554 (MIDEPLAN 2008).
   This disparity reflects the quality of
    employment available within the area of study,
    where benefits and job stability are volatile or
   Cultural and spiritual value systems are very closely
    related to the way of life with a community, that is to
    say forms of subsistence and adaptation to
    uncertainty and vulnerability.

   Value systems are subject to change over time.
   A first element is exposure that in cultural terms
    refers to external elements that have a direct impact
    in the way of life and natural resource base for the
    subsistence of this population.

   The external exposure can be seen in the fact that
    Costa Rican indigenous communities are quite
    integrated in national and international markets for
    livestock production and the service sector,
    especially those related to tourism.
   A second element is syncretism can be seen in the
    belief systems. Thus, Sibü (Translation of God in
    Boroca language) Cúastram who is a solar deity
    who can only be seen by the chiefs.

   But ,when the question was asked about Who or
    what create nature…they say God, he is the only one
    that can make everything.

   Autonomous communities with traditional belief
    systems have found themselves integrating market
    processes, and a new susceptibility to values based
    on the accumulation of wealth and consumption
   A third element is dependency on natural resources
    which can be seen in the production of handicraft.
   Handicraft is one of the principal productive
    activities in the Boruca community, employing the
    majority of the working population.
   The “overproduction” of craft items also has a
    negative impact on the environment, contributing to
    the scarcity of natural resources used in their
    fabrication, such as dyes extracted from mangrove
    trees as well as from mollusks native to the littoral
   The production of Boruca textiles is an economic
    activity maintained by many artisans who use
    pigments extracted from plants and trees as well as
    from shellfish and sea snails in order to create their
    own home-made dyes.
   The traditional cultural practice of extraction of
    natural pigments and dye-making take place in two
    areas: gardens or cultivated areas where plants and
    flowers    were    extracted    within    indigenous
    settlements, and the seashore, outside of settlement
   Poverty and socio economic stagnation mainly in the
    Vhembe District.

   Agriculture development .

   Water shortage and water competition.

   Health problems related to HIV-Aids.
   Water shortage and water competition.

   Land use change

   Eco-tourism potential
   Poverty and unemployment.

   HIV-Aids.

   Poor local governance.
   Role of religion and traditions

   Dependency on natural resources

   Old ways of life versus new one (tradition vrs
   The Luvhuvhu Catchment can be divided into
    the following four main areas based on land
    tenure and type of land use practice 1)
    Agriculture; 2) Forestry; 3) Rural settlements;
    and 4) the natural reserve
   The upper catchment is characterized by its
    large scale commercial farming (e.g., irrigated
    crops, dry land crops, and rangeland cattle
    production), and forestry (mostly state-owned
    plantations in the upper catchment).

   Conservation areas (including the Kruger
    National Park) are found in the lower reaches
    of the river and the middle and lower reaches
    of the catchment is so-called communal areas.
   Intensive irrigation farming is practiced in the upper
    Luvuvhu River catchment. Thirteen percent (13%) of
    the catchment are privately owned commercial farms
    while the majority of plantations, with the exception of
    a few small ones, are state-owned.
   Approximately 2.8% of the catchment area is covered
    with commercial forestry estates and indigenous
   Approximately 35% of the land area in the lower
    portion of the area falls within the Kruger National
   There are two main issues:

   The quantity of water which relates to the imbalance
    between the supply and demand for water which in turn
    also speaks to the effect of floods and droughts

   The water quality which speaks to the inappropriate land
    uses in the river valleys, the impact of fertilizers and
    pesticides as well as the high concentrations of pit latrines in
    certain areas
   The competition dynamics of water resources in the
    catchment is not solely due to transboundary competition
    between the neighboring countries.

   Large-scale commercial farming and small-scale farming,
    uneven rainfall patterns, agriculture and urban demand, as
    well as over-utilization and pollution by various sectors are
    part and parcel of the predicament

   Over utilization of water resources and pollution arising
    from high-density urban settlements, mining and other
    industrial development are seen to have an impact on the
    social, economic, political and natural environments
   The Kruger National park is one of the largest
    tourist attractions in South Africa and forms
    the eastern border of the study area.

   Makuya National park is another conservation
    area where tourists can do game driving and
    until recently hosted hunting.
   The population of Vhembe is 98.74% black. Given
    the history of South Africa (Apartheid), 99% of the
    people living in Vhembe can be classified as
    Previously Disadvantaged People.

   About 813,467 people are classified as poor, which
    amounts to 65.2% of the total population of Vhembe
 The main sectors that employ people from the
 Vhembe District are government and agriculture. In
 addition, mining and tourism are two of the most
 important economic sectors.

 Theunemployment rate for Vhembe District stood at
 49% in 2006. It rose to this level from 47.7% in 1996.
 At the provincial level the rate of unemployment
 rose from 44.4% in 1996 to 45.1% in 2006.
   While the situation in the Mutale River valley is not
    well known, HIV/AIDS is known to severely affect
    subsistence agriculture, adding significantly to the
    problems of agriculture and food security.

   For subsistence agriculture, production depends very
    heavily on labour and in poor rural households,
    AIDS causes severe labour and economic constraints
    that disrupt agricultural activities and aggravate
    food insecurity.
   Limpopo is one of the country’s prime agricultural
    regions recognized for the production of a large
    variety of products and can be said that is very likely
    that continue playing an important role for
    agriculture development in the near future.

   Of the total land area in Limpopo of 11 960 600 ha,
    farmland constitutes about 88.2%, while arable land
    comprises 14% estimated that there were about 5000
    commercial farming units in the Province.
   One area to see the governance problem is the
    management of the Makuya park because the
    government and the community representatives had
    very different views in terms of management of the
    park. The main objective of the tribal authorities was
    (is) to obtain payment of rents.

   The aim of the provincial government on the other
    hand was quite the opposite. To hand responsibility
    of the Park over to the local communities and with
    that end the government’s responsibility for rent,
    wages and other costs associated with running it.
   Land tenure is a example of governance problems. In the tribal
    areas, chiefs and headmen are responsible for the allocation of
    land to individuals as well as the demarcation of land.
    However, in areas under the jurisdiction of the municipality
    (such as Thohoyandou), individuals can purchase land and
    obtain private ownership.

   The demise of the Apartheid state and the abolition of the
    homeland government led to the re-assertion of the autonomy
    of individual chiefdoms in the Venda region. Renewed
    emphasis was placed on the independence of each Venda

   Today, Venda is still made up of 25 traditional authorities, each
    constituting a separate Chiefdom.
   The role of beliefs involving natural resources. Fors
    instance the legend of the python god who lives in
    the Lake who cares for their crops.

   The Phiphidi Waterfalls is also a well known sacred
    site of the Vhavenda as well as the Big Tree which is
    the world’s oldest and biggest Baobab tree.
       Dependency on natural resources. Many local chiefs make
        a point to support older traditions which make provision
        for the control and monitoring of the use of natural
        resources, particularly the use of wood for firewood, the
        use of roots and plants for medicinal purposes.

       For instance:
   Some tree species may not be brought home
   Some trees are planted to protect the homestead
   Important trees that may not be cut (fruit trees, trees
    that attract rain)

   Expansion of market economy.

   Increasing conflicts and contestation

   Non-inclusive policy

   Increasing identity politics.
   Land use changes.

   Population density.

   Changing rainfall patterns.
   Expansion of market economy.

   Infrastructure development .

   Human animal conflicts.

   Increasing identity politics.
   Agriculture traditions (rice)

   Religious practices

   Traditional law…Dependency on natural
   Zone 1 which forms the western part of the
    basin is mostly covered with forest, Zone 2, the
    central portion, has agricultural land along
    with wastelands; and Zone 3, the eastern part
    of the basin, is predominantly agricultural
   The rainfall pattern in the area is highly variable. The
    rainfall is very high in the Western parts of the basin
    adjoining Konkan and comprising the Western Ghat
    portion of the basin and falls rapidly as we traverse
    from West to East.
   According to the 2001 census the population density
    increases as we go from the West to the East within the
    basin. Zone 1, the Westernmost portion of the basin
    had a population density of about 130 persons/sq km
    while Zone 3, the easternmost portion had a
    population density of about 530 persons/sq.

   In terms of population growth, the average growth rate
    is about 14%, with Zone 1 showing lowest and Zone 2
    showing the highest growth rate between 1991 and
   The declaration of Chandoli National Park has
    increased human-animal conflicts, basically because
    crops are trampled or eaten by animals.

   In the past, the number of animals entering fields
    was significantly less according to respondents, and
    the increase of wildlife is making life difficult for
   Farming is the main livelihood avenue for the people in the
    basin as agriculture has been the most important economic
    activity. Nearly 70 per cent of the working population is
    engaged in agriculture.
   The expansion of the market economy can be seen in zone 3
    where commercial farming is dominant. Here sugarcane is
    the dominant cash crop.
   There is a distinct class of rich farmers or capitalist farmers
    who are also in the process of accumulating more and more
    agricultural land. Irrigation percentage is high.
   The Warana dam is the major dam in the area
    with a height of approximately 77 m from the
    river bed. Its catchment area is around 301 sq
   Another important dam on Potphugi river (a
    tributory of Kadavi) is known as the Kadvi
    dam. There are also two smaller irrigation
    projects are in Paleshwar.
   Majority of the people in Warana basin follow Hindu
    religion. Hindu religion believes in re-birth and ones
    actions in this world would determine what form the
    life would take in the re-birth.
   Another important demarcating feature is its belief in
    social hierarchy and the caste system is closely
    associated with the religion (and also access to natural
    resources) and at the top of the hierarchy are the
   Neo-Budhists constitutes another important religious
    grouping in the basin. They are economically very poor
    as most of them are landless and constitute the major
    section of the landless labour population in the basin.
   Over the last two decades or so there has been an
    increase in the outward expressions of religion in the
    sense of public performance of religious rituals and
   But this does not mean that there is an increase in
    religiosity or spirituality, because there is an increasing
    element of commercialization amongst almost all
    religions in the way they celebrate their festivals. One
    driver of this is that religion has become an important
    political constituency and most of the main stream
    political parties.

Even though it is difficult to point out the same current
  tendencies for the two areas, it can be said that

 Agriculture dependency
 Poverty
 Development of infrastructure and
 Tourism potential are the fours common current
  tendencies for the two areas.
   Intensive agriculture and changing crop pattern.

   Forest  development      (cover    and    loss)    and
    encroachment .

   Eco-tourism potential.
   Infrastructure development.

   Governance of the protected areas.

   Poverty.
   Changes in local behavior (tradition vrs

   Nomadic practices and shifting cultivation

   Diversity of ethnic groups
   Production forests are allocated to local
    communities. The threat to biodiversity comes from
    forest fire and cutting forest for making fields.

   According to the government the forest cover will be
    above 70% by 2020 en Ba Be and 60% in Na Hang.

   The idea in both cases is to promote doing business
    in forest. A combination between forest management
    and proper forest exploitation.
 The main driver in both areas is agriculture
  development, people living in Na Hang and Ba Be
  have a strong dependency on agriculture and this is
  expected to continue in the near future.
 Income mostly rely on wet rice plantation. Apart
  from rice, maize is important crop.
 However, in term of scenarios it is important to pay
  attention to changes in crop patterns and there is a
  government plan to restructure rural economy
  towards commodity production.
   In the ecotourism marketplace, Ba Be National Park
    competes directly with other nature tourism
    destinations in northern Vietnam, they are Halong Bay
    (Cat Ba National Park) and the hill tribes of Sa Pa near
    Lao Cai.

   Ba Be’s two best comparative advantages are likely to
    be the spectacular natural beauty of Lake and the
    superior manner in which ecotourism in the Park is
    organised. .
   There are also other opportunities for soft adventure
    options, such as canoeing and kayaking itineraries and a
    spectrum of multi-day hiking trails that will involve local
    people and support conservation objectives.

       The ecotourism potential of Na Hang Nature Reserve lies
        almost exclusively in the opportunities for domestic visits
        to Pac Ban Lake and Waterfall. Location factors and
        resource constraints make it unlikely that Na Hang
        Nature Reserve itself be considered for either
        international or domestic tourism. The Lake has been
        created by a man-made hydro dam and is therefore of
        little significance in terms of conservation values.
   Poverty is also a common factor in these two areas,
    however the poverty rate in the Ba Be District is
    quite high in comparison with Bak Kan Province.

    Poverty rate for Ba Be is 54.89% and for Na Hang is
    33.19%. The government plan is that after 2010,
    every year poverty will be reduced by 1.5 – 2% .
 Some of the main reason explaining poverty in both
 zones are first, the lack of land production of rice
 and maize, so people try to expand their production
 area, even burning forest for cultivation if the
 authorities do not take control strictly.

A second factor is the lack of knowledge and a third
 factor is capital shortage.
   Road network in those areas is a priority.

   The other item in term of infraestructre development is
    dam construction in Na Hang, Tuyen Quang province
    started in very large scale the electricity production with
    the dam on the Gam River.
    The consolidation of Na Han as a National Park
   The possible merging of the two parks and
    increased benefits from tourism are likely to
    result in changes in park management.
   The government goal of having projects on
    production forest development in every
    districts, as well as project on protection forest
    development until 2020 will have an impact on
    the governance structure of these areas.
   Ethnicity (5 main ethnic groups) in Ba Be and four
    major ethnic group in Na Han.
   In the province of Bac Kan, the Viet people live in
    flat and mainlands, featured by wet-rice civilazation.
    The Tay people (60% of total province’s population)
    live along springs, livelihood mainly by wet-rice and
    maize plantation. The Dao people live in mid-
    mountains, the H’Mong people live in high
    mountains, the Hoa people live in towns and
    populous areas, doing business, trade.
   In Tuyen Quang there are many ethnic minority
    groups such as Tày (34.5%), Dao (26.2%), H’Mông
Alexander López R. Ph.D
   Universidad Nacional
        Costa Rica
   + (506)

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