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					          Kiwi Aussies Updated –
A Comparison of the 2001-2006 and 2006-2011
 New Zealand born residential movements to
                  Australia

               Initial summary results




                   James Newell, MERA
    (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

    Australian Population Association 2012 Biennial Conference
                        7th December 2012
     Recent residential movements of New
           Zealanders to Australia?
• Contextualise it as part of a personal family
  history ..
• The empirical data on recent residential
  migration movements ..
  – NZ permanent long term residential move to and
    from Australia
  – Census - how do the 2006-2011 and 2001-2006
    settlement waves compare?
     • age and and sex composition?
     • geographic distribution (states)
                   My Family - Australia
•   Grandmother – Mary Irene Hare
     – Born 24 April 1883, Moonee Ponds, Melbourne
     – Married grandfather Herbert William Newell (born 9 Apr 1890, Malna, Samoa) at 5 Jul, 1921,
       Independent Church, Colling St, Melbourne
•   Children (Kenneth (my father) born South India, Margaret (Canberra, 3 Australian
    children), William (4 Australian children)
•   My siblings – 2 brothers all Nzers
•   Our direct descendents
     – 4 children
     – 2 Melbourne resident (one married to an Australian/Sri Lankan/Dutch Melbourne girl, with
       one Melbourne born child to date)
     – 2 NZ resident
•   Me? Born in London while father was studying public health – but a Nzer…)
•   Identifying Nzers by birthplace – I would not be picked up…
•   Most NZ families have some Australia resident – what proportion have NZ
    citizenship?
•   Typical story, (up to 1 in 5 for some demographic groups – ref : Newell and Pool,
    2009) youth move to Australia – maybe in some cases via time in the UK?
  Permanent Long Term Migration to Australia – long
     term history (12 mth to date running totals)
60,000

40,000

20,000

     0

-20,000

-40,000

-60,000


                  Arrivals   Departures   Net Migr
   International migration departures -
          Greater Christchurch
1400

1200

1000
                                                                               2008
800                                                                            2009
                                                                               2010
600
                                                                               2011
400                                                                            2012
200

   0
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
    Summary of Chch EQ Net Effects by
      Country Region to Sept 2012
                                       Decrease in        Increase in
Country Region
                                        Arrivals          Departures
Not Defined or miscoded                         -294                -10
Australia                                       -653              1,685
Pacific / Melanesia                              -52                    22
North Asia                                    -1,757               -386
South and East Asia                             -514                    93
Central Asia and Indian subcontinent             -97                    5
Southern Africa                                      52                 11
Other Africa and Middle East                     -74                -52
United Kingdom & Ireland                             66                 16
Other Europe and USSR                            -84                223
Americas                                        -171                    34
Total                                         -3,254              1,220
Greater Christchurch - Earthquake effect on
long term migration flows with Australia ..
500
400
300
200
100
  0
-100
-200
       2010-09



                     2010-12




                                                                       2012-03



                                                                                 2012-06



                                                                                           2012-09
                               2011-03



                                         2011-06



                                                   2011-09



                                                             2011-12
                 Decrease in Arrivals                Increase in Departures
  Long Term Trans-Tasman Movements
200,000

150,000

100,000

 50,000

      0

 -50,000

-100,000

-150,000
           1978-1981 1981-1986 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011
                    Arrivals     Departures       Net Migration
Comparing Census results and NZ Long
 Term Migration Movement Statistics
                                       2001-2006   2006-2011


                     Arrivals            68,334      57,832
Permanent Long
Term Migration –
                     Departures
Australia                               144,311     165,168
(all NZ residents)
                     Net                -75,977    -107,336
                     Net arrived in
Australian Census    previous 5 yrs       67,732    101,584
(TBDR)
NZ Born Residents    All NZ Born
only                 residents as at    389,472     483,398
                     census
   Comparing 2006 and 2011 Census NZ
        Born Residents by State
               2006       2011                  2011       2006
                                                                         2011 Census
              Census     Census                Census     Census
             Arr 2002   Arr 2002              Arr 2007   Arr 2002-   Arr 2002-   Arr 2006-
                                   Net Mvmt
State          2006       2006                  2011       2006        2006        2011
New South
Wales
              16,541     13,691     -2,850     15,748      24.4%       21.1%       15.5%
Victoria      12,775     12,193       -582     18,460      18.9%       18.8%       18.2%
Queensland    28,389     28,628        239     43,064      41.9%       44.1%       42.4%
South
Australia
               1,197      1,069       -128      1,861       1.8%        1.6%        1.8%
Western
Australia
               7,284      8,533      1,249     20,717      10.8%       13.1%       20.4%
Tasmania         304        290        -14        409       0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
Northern
Territory
                 353        329        -24        776       0.5%        0.5%        0.8%
ACT              314        255        -59     549          0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
Other            575          0       -575       0          0.8%        0.0%        0.0%
Total         67,732     64,988     -2,744 101,584         100.0%      100.0%      100.0%
              % Distribution by State
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
 5.0%
 0.0%
        New South   Victoria   Queensland    South       Western     Tasmania   Northern    ACT
          Wales                             Australia    Australia              Territory

                               Arr 2002-2006            Arr 2006-2011
      Age Composition of NZ Born New
               Residents
Age Group     2002-2006     2007-2011     2002-2006     2007-2011
0-4 yrs             4,761         7,025          7.0%          6.9%
5-14 yrs           12,970        18,832         19.1%         18.5%
15-19 yrs           4,972         7,284          7.3%          7.2%
20-24 yrs           8,045        12,850         11.9%         12.6%
25-29 yrs           9,180        15,288         13.6%         15.0%
30-39 yrs          13,171        18,159         19.4%         17.9%
40-59 yrs          12,188        19,109         18.0%         18.8%
60-69 yrs           1,556         2,382          2.3%          2.3%
70 yrs plus           889           655          1.3%          0.6%
Total              67,732       101,584       100.0%        100.0%
 On Labour Market Catchments ..?
• Cluster analysis on 2006 industry composition
  – into 26 clusters of like LMCs
• But leave for now – as a bit tricky to estimate
  NZ born into LMCs using 2011 SA2’s – another
  time
           Some summary points
• Connections between NZ and many Australian families
  are deep, long standing and growing – my family
  illustrates this
• Trans-Tasman linked societies – we grow, educate them
   – large share of the best, brightest and most enterprising
   – not same rights as residents in terms of health, education
     etc… as other Australian residents
   – good deal for Australia!
• The 2006-2011 period – peak of roughly 10 year
  migration cycle?
• Numbers of Nzers growing – Wellington City plus size
         Some summary points
• Census and long term external migration flows
  consistent..
• Queensland 40-45% of NZ Born residents
• Western Australia growing – new arrivals and
  Internal migration from NSW of earlier waves
• Age composition – only slight increase in 25-29 yr
  old share
• About 25% children – where will they go to uni if
  no citizenship, health etc.?
• A NZ underclass?

				
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