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Goldman Sachs - The Charts That Matter

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					                                                                                            SECURITIES DIVISION




 GS Techs
 The Charts That Matter Next Week


 Thursday 18th April 2013




Prepared by a Goldman Sachs sales and trading desk, which may have a position in
the products mentioned that is inconsistent with the views expressed in this material. In
evaluating this material, you should know that it could have been previously provided to
other clients and/or internal Goldman Sachs personnel, who could have already acted
on it. The views or ideas expressed here are those of the desk and/or author only and
are not an “official view” of Goldman Sachs; others at Goldman Sachs may have
opinions or may express views that are contrary to those herein. This material is not
independent advice and is not a product of Global Investment Research. This material
is a solicitation of derivatives business generally, only for the purposes of, and to the
extent it is subject to, §§ 1.71 and 23.605 of the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act.
                                                                                               Spotting themes in the market place…

                                                                                                                                                                                   This percentage change scatter chart helps us to
                                                                                                                                                                                     identify where trends in the FX market are
                                                                                                                                                                                    extending or turning on a week on week basis

                                                                                                                                                                                       Performance vs Anchor Currency – In this case the
                                                                                                                                                                                        performance of all currencies is displayed vs the USD with
                            JPY recovers slightly
                                                                                                                                                                                        the exception of PLN, CZK, HUF, SEK and NOK which are
                          (USDJPY corrects lower)
                          but underlying trend still                                                                                                                                    tracked vs the EUR
                               looks in place
                                                                                                                                                                                       First Across and then Up or Down – The %age change last
                                                                                                                                                                                        week is displayed on the x-axis and the %age change so
                                                                                                                                                                                        far this week is displayed on the y-axis
                                                                                                                                                                                       Displayed as if the Base Currency – If a currency shows a
                                                                                                                                                                                        positive %age change it means it strengthened vs its
                                                                                                                                                                                        anchor currency (USD/XZY or EUR/XZY fell) if a currency
                                                                                                                                                                                        shows a negative %age change it means it weakened vs its
                                                                                                                                                                                        anchor currency (USD/XZY or EUR/EYZ rallied)
                                                                                                                                                                                       Four Quadrants – Top right is “Strong and Stronger”
                                                                                                                                                                                        where a currency has strengthened for both of the past
                                                                                                                                                                                        two weeks, bottom right is “Strong then Weak” where a
                                                                                                                                                                                        currency strengthened last week but weakened this week,
                                                                                                                                                                                        bottom left is “Weak and Weaker” where a currency
                                                                                                                                                                                        weakened for both of the past two weeks and top left is
                                                                                                                                                                                        “Weak then Strong” where a currency weakened last
                                                                                                                                                                                        week but strengthened this week
                                                                                                                                                                                       Trending or Turning – Simplistically speaking if a currency
                                                                                                                                                                                        appears in the top right quadrant it indicates it’s trending
                                                                                                                                                                                        higher and if a currency appears in the bottom left it
                                                                                                                                                                                        indicates it’s trending lower. If it appears in the bottom
                                                                                                                                                                                        right it is turning lower and if it appears in the top left it is
                                                                                                                                                                                        turning higher
                                                                                                                                                                                       A chart of this type will now be included most weeks.
                                                                                                                                                                                        We’re very open to suggestions of possible future
   Chart as of: Thursday 18th April 2013                                                                                                                                                “topics” for the “TOT to TRACK”.

FX and Rates Strategies   Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                          purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                               results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      1
From the Trading Desk     as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                                                                             A quick overview of the technical outlook…




   Data as of: Thursday 18th April 2013
FX and Rates Strategies   Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                          purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                               results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      2
From the Trading Desk     as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                                                                           A quick overview of the technical outlook…




   Data as of: Thursday 18th April 2013
FX and Rates Strategies   Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                          purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                               results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      3
From the Trading Desk     as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                                                                           A quick overview of the technical outlook…




   Data as of: Thursday 18th April 2013
FX and Rates Strategies   Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                          purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                               results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      4
From the Trading Desk     as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                                                                                 A quick overview of the technical outlook…




   Data as of: Thursday 18th April 2013
FX and Rates Strategies   Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                          purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                               results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      5
From the Trading Desk     as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                                                                     Markets which could be the next big story…

                     Is USDCAD in the process of forming a structural base?                                                              EURCZK now beginning to break higher from its multi-month consolidation




          USDCAD has been out of focus over recent weeks having been relatively range bound                                                   Last week’s close was above the resistance of a bull flag like consolidation which appears
           when compared to the notable trend like moves developing in other currency pairs.                                                    to have been forming off the Nov. ‘11 peak at 25.80. This should give a multi-month
           There now however appears to be increasing talk around the possibility of an upside turn                                             continuation target of ~27.42. Further confirmation would likely be given by a weekly
           developing (or at least a period of generalised CAD under-performance beginning).                                                    close above the prior interim high from Jun. ‘12 at 25.98 and then the primary downtrend
           Technically speaking this does look possible with USDCAD itself appearing to be in the                                               from the May ‘00 high at 26.11.
           process of developing a base against the lows from Apr. 14 and historically correlated
                                                                                                                                               The weekly moving averages are clustered, but attempting to turn higher and weekly
           markets such as Oil looking increasingly heavy (tends to link to CAD under-performance).
           Overall it seems an interesting time to watch for signs of a CAD-weakness trend coming                                               oscillators are breaking up from their recent consolidation. Overall a pretty constructive
           together. First confirmation on USDCAD likely above downtrend resistance at 1.0323.                                                  looking setup from a “derivative analysis” perspective.


FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      6
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          EURUSD’s almost “random” consolidation near 1.31 continues…

                                                                                                                                                                                     On Tuesday the market made a (marginal) close
                                                                                                                                                                                     above the converged 55-/100-dmas and interim
                                                                                                                                                                                       high from Sep. ‘12 but there was no notable
                                                                                                                                                                                     follow through at all. During Wednesday it then
                                                                                                                                                                                          quickly swung back into the old range

                                                                                                                                                                                         With daily oscillators now crossing down from close to the
                                                                                                                                                                                          extreme of their LT range it appears a notable ST peak has
                                                                                                                                                                                          probably been set.
                                                                                                                                                                                         The market now most likely consolidates within an
                                                                                                                                                                                          ~1.32/1.29 range, bound loosely above by Wednesday’s
                                                                                                                                                                                          intraday high and below by the 200-dma.
                                                                                                                                                                                         The underlying structural setup still seems to have a
                                                                                                                                                                                          negative tilt to it, but to further confirm that
                                                                                                                                                                                          interpretation as correct/increase confidence in it
                                                                                                                                                                                          ultimately pushing the market lower, notable negative
                                                                                                                                                                                          weekly patterns and/or a push back below the 200-dma at
                                                                                                                                                                                          1.2925 likely need to develop.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      7
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          The DXY has actually arguably traded more “technically”…

                          The market bounced aggressively from its 55-dma                                                                        The monthly setup still seems to have quite a constructive look to it




          It’s difficult to read the ST “structure”, but with daily oscillators turning up from close to                                        As previously highlighted; (i) the market has broken its downtrend from the Feb. ’02 high,
           the base of their recent range it seems a notable low may have been set.                                                               (ii) price action since the Mar. ‘09 peak appears to be taking the form of a large “bull
                                                                                                                                                  flag”, (iii) in Feb. this year a bullish monthly reversal was posted following a re-test of the
          The market also stabilised just above the interim high from 16th Nov. ‘12 at 81.455.                                                   old downtrend as support and (iv) although not shown here as it’s difficult to see on this
          First confirmation of a sustainable turn higher in place would likely be generated by a                                                time frame of chart the initial Mar. ‘08/Mar. ‘09 rally looks to have broken into an
           clean daily close above the 21-dma at 82.62.                                                                                           (impulsive) five-wave sequence. Overall a setup which need not yield an immediate rally,
                                                                                                                                                  but over time seems to point towards the market moving higher.
                                                                                                                                                 Further confirmation likely with a break of the interim high from Jul. ‘12 at 84.10 (~1.85%
                                                                                                                                                  above current levels). Next pivot the downtrend from Oct. ’05 at 86.28 (~4.5% above).
FX and Rates Strategies        Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                               purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      8
From the Trading Desk          as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          When looking at spreads it’s the “same old story”…

                 The Jul. ‘10 based comparison chart appears to imply ~1.25                                                                                             Looking at the shorter-term daily chart




          This is the usual comparison chart which shows Germany/U.S. spreads (equally weighted                                               Spreads have moved back inside their old range, but the bounce in the EUR’s favour has
           basket of the 10-/5-/2-year) in green and EURUSD spot in blue.                                                                       stalled a little recently.
          Based in late-Jul. ‘10 it continues to imply some downside for EURUSD (towards ~1.25 as                                             As discussed last week the main point for discussion here from a “theoretical
           highlighted above). As discussed previously the importance of this chart is likely increased                                         perspective” is whether the discrepancy discussed opposite, on its own, is enough to
           by the apparent “leadership of rates” which has developed over the past couple of years;                                             “pull” EURUSD lower. It may be a case that spreads also need to be directionally moving
           often rates lead FX by a number of months.                                                                                           in the USD’s favour (even if only gradually).
          Overall this setup seems to imply that downside risks for EURUSD remain material from a
           multi-month perspective.

FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      9
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          The much bigger story this week has been in commodity space…

                                                                                                                                                                                        …with Gold’s incredibly sharp drop being the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        major focus

                                                                                                                                                                                         As has already been discussed in many forums the drop
                                                                                                                                                                                          from Friday to Monday was statistically very significant.
                                                                                                                                                                                          At -13.33% on a close to close basis, the drop over that
                                                                                                                                                                                          two day period was by far the largest since late-Feb. ‘83
                                                                                                                                                                                          when the market fell 14% over a two day period.
                                                                                                                                                                                          Although the timing of the move in ’83 relative to the
                                                                                                                                                                                          broader trend was slightly different, it took place soon
                                                                                                                                                                                          after the cycle peak was set as opposed to following a
                                                                                                                                                                                          period of consolidation in this case, in simple terms it is
                                                                                                                                                                                          something historically only really seen as part of major
                                                                                                                                                                                          downside turn. Prior to ‘83 sharp two day moves such as
                                                                                                                                                                                          this have only been see around the highs in ‘80.
                                                                                                                                                                                         With this outsized 2-day move being coupled with the
                                                                                                                                                                                          extreme one week drop of Sep. ‘11 (-8.59%) which is
                                                                                                                                                                                          something else usually associated with major turning
                                                                                                                                                                                          points, risks now seem to be skewed towards further
                                                                                                                                                                                          downside over time.
                                                                                                                                                                                         The converged possible ABC equality target and channel
                                                                                                                                                                                          base drawn off the Sep. ‘11 highs, while broken on an
                                                                                                                                                                                          intraday basis, should still act as a notable weekly close
                                                                                                                                                                                          basis pivot; 1,397-1,354. The next feasible target beyond
                                                                                                                                                                                          that point appears to be ~1,250 – a possible “range
                                                                                                                                                                                          projection” from the near perfect horizontal consolidation
                                                                                                                                                                                          which formed off the Sep. ‘11 low.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Overall daily analysis is difficult after such extreme
                                                                                                                                                                                          moves, but risks do seem skewed to the downside over
                                                                                                                                                                                          time. The first clear sign of stabilisation would now likely
                                                                                                                                                                                          need to be generated by daily patterns (hammers etc.) as
                                                                                                                                                                                          opposed to resistance levels being broken as these stand
                                                                                                                                                                                          a very long way above the market at this point.


FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      10
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Also now worth keeping a close eye on Gold implied vol…

                                                                                                                                                                                        This chart shows Gold spot in green (log scale)
                                                                                                                                                                                            and 1-month Gold implied vol. in blue

                                                                                                                                                                                         The most straight forward takeaway seems to be that 1-
                                                                                                                                                                                          month vol. tends to peak in an approximate 32.50-36.50
                                                                                                                                                                                          range (with the exception of ’08, when extreme “blow
                                                                                                                                                                                          out” type moves were seen across a number of markets).
                                                                                                                                                                                          With this in mind, so far, 1-month vol. has peaked just at
                                                                                                                                                                                          the base of this region, the high being set at 32.31 (on
                                                                                                                                                                                          Tuesday this week).
                                                                                                                                                                                         Peaks in this region have been associated with notable
                                                                                                                                          ?                                               spot highs (following “blow out” rallies) and major spot
                                                                                                                                                                                          lows (likely after notable corrective falls related to
                                                                                                                                                                                          position reduction) over recent years. It will therefore be
                                                                                                                                                                                          important to watch for any more material signs of a base
                                                                                                                                                                                          developing on the spot market now that vol. has moved
                                                                                                                                                                                          to these kinds of levels.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      11
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          CFTC positioning for Gold…

                                                                                                                                                                                     Shorts at extreme levels not seen since the late-
                                                                                                                                                                                              ’90s, but longs relatively static

                                                                                                                                                                                         This chart shows Gold prices in black, CFTC Non-
                                                                                                                                                                                          Commercial Short Contracts in red and CFTC Non-
                                                                                                                                                                                          Commercial Long contracts in green (combined futures
                                                                                                                                                                                          and options).
                                                                                                                                                                                         What it illustrates, not surprisingly, is that since Feb. the
                                                                                                                                                                                          number of short contracts has spiked significantly on the
                                                                                                                                                                                          run up to the pivotal break of the 1,534-1,522 range lows.
                                                                                                                                                                                          Shorts are now at levels not seen since Apr. ’99 (before
                                                                                                                                                                                          the beginning of the real bull run) so it now seems an
                                                                                                                                                                                          important time to shift attention to the Non-Commercial
                                                                                                                                                                                          Long positions. So far, long contracts have only scaled
                                                                                                                                                                                          back mildly relative to their highs, maybe not enough to
                                                                                                                                                                                          create a real dent to the larger trend. Assuming the
                                                                                                                                                                                          historic positioning ranges hold, for Gold to continue to
                                                                                                                                                                                          decline, a more material drop in the pool of long positions
                                                                                                                                                                                          as opposed to further increase in shorts would likely be
                                                                                                                                                                                          necessary.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      12
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          The commodity decline has now become very wide spread…

                                                                                                                                                                                    The LMEX (London Metals Exchange Index) which
                                                                                                                                                                                      tracks the performance of a basked of metals
                                                                                                                                                                                       with the following composition; Aluminium
                                                                                                                                                                                       (41.8%), Copper (33.4%), Lead (8.4%), Nickel
                                                                                                                                                                                     (2.0%), Tin (1%) and Zinc (13.4%), has now also
                                                                                                                                                                                          begun to push below notable support

                                                                                                                                                                                         Confirmation of a downside break would likely be
                                                                                                                                                                                          generated by a weekly close below the interim low from
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun. ‘12 at 3,129.8.
                                                                                                                                                                                         As discussed a number of months ago, while not identical,
                                                                                                                                                                                          price action from around Jul. ‘09 onwards appears to have
                                                                                                                                                                                          been forming a large H&S topping pattern, similar to that
                                                                                                                                                                                          which developed from Apr. ‘06 to Sep. ‘08. Once that
                                                                                                                                                                                          pattern completed (which would theoretically happen
                                                                                                                                                                                          again here with a weekly close below the Jun. ‘12 low) the
                                                                                                                                                                                          index declined very sharply.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Notably the Feb. ‘11 and Apr. ‘07 peaks were set against
                                                                                                                                                                                          very similar levels too (the index on neither occasion
                                                                                                                                                                                          being able to push beyond ~4,500).




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      13
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          One of the large components itself has a notable setup…

                                                                                                                                                                                     Copper (33.4% of the LMEX Index) is attempting
                                                                                                                                                                                        to complete its own H&S top like pattern

                                                                                                                                                                                         Around seven weeks ago the market began to break
                                                                                                                                                                                          lower from the triangle like consolidation (poss. right
                                                                                                                                                                                          shoulder of a large H&S top) which had been forming off
                                                                                                                                                                                          the Oct. ‘11 low). With hindsight the tight clustering of
                                                                                                                                                                                          weekly moving averages within this consolidation was a
                                                                                                                                                                                          warning that the market was susceptible to a sharp
                                                                                                                                                                                          decline once the break from this pattern was in place.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Over the past week the market has now also dropped
                                                                                                                                                                                          very sharply below the trend across the interim lows from
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun. ‘10 onwards (which is arguably the neckline of a
                                                                                                                                                                                          multi-year H&S top – likely similar to that in place on the
                                                                                                                                                                                          LMEX index itself discussed on the prior slide). Further
                                                                                                                                                                                          confirmation of a downside break would now likely be
                                                                                                                                                                                          given by a break below the Oct. ‘11 low at 6,635 (~3.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                          below current levels).
                                                                                                                                                                                         In terms of initial targets the triangle like consolidation
                                                                                                                                                                                          which formed off the Oct. ‘11 low should point to 5,895. If
                                                                                                                                                                                          this is however a multi-year H&S top completing the
                                                                                                                                                                                          targets could theoretically be much lower.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      14
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          The other components don’t appear favourable…

                    For Aluminium 1,828-1,827 looks the big pivot to watch                                                                       Lead is less clear, but could again be a large H&S top in the making




          Two notable lows have been set in this region over recent years.                                                                    Focus currently on the uptrend from the Dec. ‘08 low at 1,946. Beyond there the neckline
                                                                                                                                                of the poss. H&S top stands at 1,823 (~8.25% below current levels).
          Here too the market could be in the process of forming a large H&S top like structure and
           the interim high from May ‘11 was set close to the 76.4% retrace of the Jul. ’08/Feb. ‘09                                           Notably the initial Oct. ‘07/Dec. ‘08 drop appears to break into an impulsive five-wave
           drop.                                                                                                                                sequence which could theoretically have –ve LT implications.




FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      15
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          A quick look at a couple more…

                     Tin’s structure is less clear, but still an interesting chart                                                                          Zinc again not so clear, but nearing important support




          The market may be in the process of forming a larger triangle like consolidation off the                                             The trend across the interim lows from Jun. ‘10 onwards only stands just below current
           Sep. ‘11 low at 17,000.                                                                                                               levels at 1,811.
          Pivots to watch should now be 18,700 and 17,232 (uptrend from Mar. ‘09 and trend                                                     The concern is that the price action since the Oct. ‘11 low at 1,718 is a bearish
           across the interim lows from Sep. ‘11 onwards respectively).                                                                          continuation pattern in the process of forming.




FX and Rates Strategies       Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                              purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      16
From the Trading Desk         as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          A couple of others which aren’t in the LMEX…

             Platinum attempts to break lower from its triangle consolidation                                                                             Palladium drops sharply after double 76.4 retrace holds




          A weekly close below the uptrend from the Dec. ‘11 low at 1,420 would make the                                                      First pivot to watch the 55-wma at 658.63 and then the 200-wma at 595.72.
           consolidation since Dec. ‘11 appear as a bearish continuation pattern to target ~1,037.
                                                                                                                                               Overall the series of two notable 76.4% retraces warns of an eventual break below the
          The stand out point from a structural perspective here is that the Aug. ‘11 high at 1,912                                            Oct. ‘11 low at 533.25.
           was near exactly on the 76.4% retrace of the Mar./Oct. ‘08 drop at 1,909.




FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      17
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Finally oil has been under pressure, but this started earlier…

               Brent drops sharply after double top to target 91.11 completes                                                                            WTI has also dropped sharply after the “Arb.” hit support




          Weekly close basis pivot support to watch should now be the 200-wma at 97.70.                                                        A weekly close below the Mar. low at 89.33 should complete a double top like pattern to
                                                                                                                                                 target 80.66.
          Overall a very heavy looking setup.
                                                                                                                                                Next weekly close basis support to watch should be the 200-wma at 87.44
          First sign of stabilisation would likely be given by a weekly close materially back above the
           neckline of the double top at 104.76 (Nov. ‘12 low).                                                                                 First sign of stabilisation would now likely be given by a weekly close back above the
                                                                                                                                                 neckline of the topping pattern at 89.33.




FX and Rates Strategies       Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                              purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      18
From the Trading Desk         as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          So what does all this mean? …is it really just about positioning?..

                                                                                                                                                                                     There are some “cracks” starting to show around
                                                                                                                                                                                      the edges which seem to imply that something
                                                                                                                                                                                                more “material” is going on

                                                                                                                                                                                          The S&P has been the big out-performer over recent
                                                                                                                                                                                           years, but even here the market has now stalled against
                                                                                                                                                                                           the trend which connects the prior two major cycle highs
                                                                                                                                                                                           from Mar. ‘00 and Oct. ‘07 at ~1,593 (high so far ~1,597).
                                                                                                                                                                                          If clear signs of a turn lower begin to develop from here it
                                                                                                                                                                                           could be quite important.




FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      19
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Looking at the daily chart 1,540-1,534 should be the pivot…

                                                                                                                                                                                         This region encompasses the 55-dma, interim
                                                                                                                                                                                         lows from 5th Apr./19th Mar. and the uptrend
                                                                                                                                                                                                       from 16th Nov. ‘12

                                                                                                                                                                                          Given the notable multi-year resistance/pivot hold
                                                                                                                                                                                           detailed on the prior slide if the market begins to break
                                                                                                                                                                                           this support region it may theoretically confirm a more
                                                                                                                                                                                           meaningful MT (multi-week) possibly LT (multi-month)
                                                                                                                                                                                           top in place.
                                                                                                                                                                                          The 200-wma as a potential extended target currently
                                                                                                                                                                                           stands down at 1,450.




FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      20
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Some other benchmark indices are also under pressure…

           The EuroStoxx600 has stalled against the highs from Feb. ‘11 at 292                                                               The Shanghai Composite peaked in Feb. and has been pulling back since




          Negative oscillator divergence also formed against the recent marginal new highs warning                                            It is now important to watch for any signs of the market basing against its 200-dma at
           the uptrend has become exhausted.                                                                                                    2,176 (has tested three times over recent sessions and been unable to break
                                                                                                                                                meaningfully/close below). Daily oscillators are also beginning to diverge slightly
          The first notable pivot below current levels looks to be the 55-wma which stands ~4.6%                                               positively against the recent marginal new trend lows.
           below.




FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      21
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          So at some point doesn’t this have to feed into commod. FX?..

                  USDCAD as previously discussed is a favourite at this stage                                                                 On the daily chart now beginning to break up from corrective pullback?




          The market really looks as thought it’s trying to form a significant basing structure against                                        The retrace from the 1st Mar. high at 1.0343 looks quite corrective and overlapping versus
           the all time lows from the mid-’70s.                                                                                                  the relatively “trend like” rally from Jan./Feb. Following an initial break on Monday, over
                                                                                                                                                 recent sessions the market has re-tested the old broken downtrend from the 1st Mar. high
                                                                                                                                                 as support and thus far it’s held well. With the cross asset backdrop which seems to be
                                                                                                                                                 coming together and the two successful re-tests of the trend which are now in place it
                                                                                                                                                 would be concerning (particularly from a ST momentum perspective) to now see the
                                                                                                                                                 market break back below Wednesday/Thursday’s intraday lows; 1.0209-03.
                                                                                                                                                Further confirmation of a turn higher should be given by a close above 76.4 retrace
                                                                                                                                                 resistance at 1.0282 (of the initial pull back from the 1st Mar. high).
FX and Rates Strategies       Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                              purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      22
From the Trading Desk         as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Extreme weakness in copper also making CLP look interesting…

                                                                                                                                                                                        This chart shows the LME copper price in green
                                                                                                                                                                                             and inverse-USDCLP (CLPUSD) in blue

                                                                                                                                                                                         What the chart quite clearly highlights is that there’s been
                                                                                                                                                                                          a decent directional correlation between copper and CLP
                                                                                                                                                                                          (inverse-USDCLP) since mid-’08.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Looking at the current setup, with the comparison chart
                                                                                                                                                                                          based in this way, the recent copper weakness is making
                                                                                                                                                                                          CLP look far too “strong”.
                                                                                                                                                                                         This backdrop likely makes it a very interesting time to
                                                                                                                                                                                          watch for signs of a material upside turn developing on
                                                                                                                                                                                          USDCLP from a pure tech. perspective (see following
                                                                                                                                                                                          slide).




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      23
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          USDCLP is beginning to show what appear clear signs of a base…

                On the weekly chart a hold of the primary uptrend from ‘08?                                                                   Daily chart pivot to watch for further confirmation should be 475-476




          The recent low at 465.40 was only set very slightly below the primary uptrend from the                                              This is where the interim high from 4th Mar. and the 200-dma (which held well at the mid-
           Mar. ‘08 low at 468.09. Following that hold (although it can’t be seen on this chart) the                                            Nov. ‘12 highs) are converged.
           market posted quite a classic indecision/exhaustion pattern on the weekly candle chart.
                                                                                                                                               If a daily close above this region can be achieved it should act as further support to the
          Against the recent marginal new lows positive weekly oscillator divergence has now                                                   positive signals given by the weekly chart already discussed opposite.
           completed (to indicate downtrend exhaustion).
          The market could even be forming a double bottom against the prior interim low from
           Sep. ’12. A weekly close above the high from Nov. ‘12 at 485.70 should now complete the
           pattern to target ~505. Next level to watch on the way the 200-wma at 496.15.

FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      24
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          AUDUSD remains as challenging as ever…

                                                                                                                                                                                    Really seems a classic “bid at the highs/offered at
                                                                                                                                                                                                the lows” type situation

                                                                                                                                                                                         Appears now a classic case of watching the well defined
                                                                                                                                                                                          (almost perfect horizontal) range which has been forming
                                                                                                                                                                                          since the Aug. ‘12 peak. The associated pivots should be
                                                                                                                                                                                          1.0625/1.0116. When a close basis (ideally weekly) break
                                                                                                                                                                                          in either direction from this range eventually develops a
                                                                                                                                                                                          notable move is likely.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Given the extreme weakness in commodities, while a
                                                                                                                                                                                          bullish Elliott interpretation of this chart still seems
                                                                                                                                                                                          possible, it’s likely increasingly hard to rationalise.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      25
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          EURNOK starting to get some traction?..

     As previously discussed a major base is likely forming on the monthly chart                                                                                        Starting to pull away from the 55-wma ?




          The market having developed a number of positive signals against the prior cycle low                                                 On the weekly chart the market finally appears to be stabilising above the 55-wma (now
           from Jan. ‘03 at 7.2170; (i) triple positive monthly oscillator divergence against the recent                                         7.4456) with a decent recovery off that support/pivot level over the past few sessions.
           series of marginal new lows, (ii) a bullish monthly reversal in Jan. this year – the same as
                                                                                                                                                With the downtrend from the Oct. ‘10 high broken and a decent gap to the 200-wma up
           the market posted in Jan. ‘03 and (iii) a break higher in monthly oscillators from a triangle
           like consolidation to coincide with the recent resistance breaks on spot.                                                             at 7.8509 in place, further recovery seems likely over time.




FX and Rates Strategies       Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                              purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      26
From the Trading Desk         as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          EURSEK has however been a big (-ve) surprise…

                                                                                                                                                                                         The market breaking higher from its recent
                                                                                                                                                                                          triangle like consolidation much against
                                                                                                                                                                                                         expectations

                                                                                                                                                                                         This enabled the market to break reasonably easily above
                                                                                                                                                                                          the converged recent interim highs running 8.45-8.46 and
                                                                                                                                                                                          to go on to test the next big pivot region up at 8.50-8.52
                                                                                                                                                                                          (converged interim lows from 8th Nov. ‘12/4th Jan plus the
                                                                                                                                                                                          200-/100-dmas).
                                                                                                                                                                                         It is still possible the market peaks against this area, but
                                                                                                                                                                                          the impulsiveness of Wednesday’s rally coupled with the
                                                                                                                                                                                          “shaky” look to risk appetite linked asset markets (with
                                                                                                                                                                                          which SEK tends to be highly positive correlated ) makes
                                                                                                                                                                                          bullish-SEK a far less comfortable theme to sit with.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Overall would now take a far more neutral stance and
                                                                                                                                                                                          watch how price action develops over the coming
                                                                                                                                                                                          sessions.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      27
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          This makes bearish-usd a less clear theme for now…

           The big pivot breaks are in tentatively in place on the monthly chart                                                            May now need to complete a larger ABC from the lows on the daily chart




          But as yet the market has not been able to generate significant downside momentum to                                               A possible equality target for such a move stands at 1.1363.
           really push beyond the converged uptrend from Sep. ‘92 and low from Aug. ’12; 1.1190-
           1.1154.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      28
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Could INR be a beneficiary of commodity weakness?..

         Downside break from recent triangle like consolidation on the daily chart                                                         A large H&S topping pattern could be forming against the multi-year highs




          First of all as a reminder of the longer-term structure; the market has a series of two                                              Looking at this chart it’s also worth keeping in mind that a multi-year H&S topping
           76.4% retraces in place against the highs from Jun. ’12, something usually seen as                                                    structure could be in the process of forming, the neckline of which also comes in just
           significant turns form (i.e. a topping structure in this case). On Tuesday this week the                                              below current levels at 53.61 (uptrend off the Feb. ’12 low). A weekly close below that
           market then broke lower from its recent triangle consolidation and is now putting                                                     level would likely start to confirm the topping structure in place. The next notable pivot
           pressure on the uptrend from the Oct. ’12 low at 53.75. A break and daily close below                                                 beyond there should then be the interim low from Oct. ’12 at 51.35.
           that latter point is likely what’s required to give at least initial confirmation of a downside
           break/turn in place in line with the LT structure.




FX and Rates Strategies       Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                              purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      29
From the Trading Desk         as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Bringing things together a quick look at Commod./INR crosses…

                           CADINR looks a particularly interesting cross                                                                           NOKINR too looks heavy although its yet to break any real levels




          A near perfect 76.4% retrace has been set against the all time high from Sep. ’12 and the                                            Could arguably be in the process of forming some sort of (possibly H&S) topping
           market has pushed below its 55-wma after quite an extended period above. Further                                                      structure. It now stands against an important pivot region with the 55-wma and uptrend
           confirmation of a downside turn would likely be generated with a move below a series of                                               from Nov. ’10 converged; 9.4144-9.3698. If a break below that region can be achieved on
           interim highs/lows which are converged just below current levels; 52.75-52.25. If a weekly                                            a weekly (5pm NY Friday) basis the interim low from Mar. ’13 at 9.2384 should come into
           close below that region could be achieved the 200-wma as a potential MT-LT (multi-                                                    focus. Again as with CADINR there’s also a decent gap down to the 200-wma at 8.4107.
           week/-month) target stands down at 48.12.




FX and Rates Strategies       Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                              purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      30
From the Trading Desk         as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          GBPUSD’s been out of focus, but maybe it shouldn’t be…

               The break from a multi-year triangle is still very much in place                                                              On the daily chart the bounce from the 12th Mar. low seems corrective




          While the market has retraced a little further than is “ideal” (thus far moving just back                                           The recovery over the past few weeks being quite overlapping and seemingly having little
           above the base of the old horizontal range from mid-’11 through to Feb. this year which                                              momentum when compared to the relatively sharp trend like drop from the early-January
           ran 1.5234-1.5270) the underlying structure still looks quite negative. Put simply it should                                         highs.
           take a lot to invalidate a downside break from a 4-year+ triangle and as yet there are no
                                                                                                                                               A wide/notable ST pivot region to watch should now run from 1.5280 to 1.5153 (interim
           real confirmation signals of such an invalidation.
                                                                                                                                                high from 25th Mar., base of the multi-year consolidation, 21-dma and uptrend from the
          Overall, an eventual move to at least ~1.40 (where the next major support/pivot area                                                 12th Mar. low).
           comes in – not shown on this chart) still seems quite possible.



FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      31
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Quick USDJPY update, now in consolidation mode?..

                        Another downside correction late last/early this week                                                                                           The monthly chart still looks constructive




          On a daily close basis the market however holds the prior interim high from 12th Mar. and                                             It just appears that a period of consolidation below the historically important 100 is
           the 21-dma (now 96.71-25). Below there another notable support/pivot region should run                                                 necessary prior to the underlying uptrend eventually continuing.
           94.82-77 (converged 55-dma and interim high from 25th Feb.).
          Overall it appears the market has entered a consolidation phase in an approximate
           100/96.50 range. There seems little in the way of clear signals from this chart to warn of a
           more material retrace/downside turn.




FX and Rates Strategies        Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                               purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      32
From the Trading Desk          as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          Keeping an eye on Japanese yields with 20-year likely clearest…

                  Key 1.50-1.52% pivot holding on the weekly chart for now                                                                    On the monthly chart a big hammer is possible against the major lows




          This region encompasses the prior two interim lows from Jul. ‘12 and Aug. ‘10.                                                      This month’s low so far has been set at 1.005%, between the prior major extremes from
                                                                                                                                                Oct. ’98 and Jun. ‘03; 1.16-0.753%.
          With weekly oscillators turning up from close to the base of their range, if a clean/clear
           weekly close above this region can be achieved, over time, it would likely lead to at least
           a test of the 200-wma up at ~1.86%.




FX and Rates Strategies      Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                             purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      33
From the Trading Desk        as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                          USDTHB moves to (and a little beyond) its ~28.80 target…

                                                                                                                                                                                        This was the target given by taking a projection
                                                                                                                                                                                          from the bear flag like consolidation which
                                                                                                                                                                                                 formed off the Nov. ‘10 lows

                                                                                                                                                                                         With weekly oscillators “flat lining” in oversold territory
                                                                                                                                                                                          and the risk “backdrop” appearing to deteriorate
                                                                                                                                                                                          meaningfully over recent sessions it seems now is a time
                                                                                                                                                                                          to take a far more cautious stance towards bullish-THB
                                                                                                                                                                                          (bearish-USDTHB) exposure.




FX and Rates Strategies     Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice; such matters should be discussed with your advisors and or counsel. This material is intended for illustrative
                            purposes only and is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and is no indication (implied or express)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Past performance is not an indicator of future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 results. Future returns are not guaranteed,      34
From the Trading Desk       as to the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.                      and a loss of original investment may occur.
                  Disclaimer for clients

Product Specific Risk Disclosure
The ideas detailed in this presentation may involve the purchase of options, in this case the premium paid may be lost if favourable market movement for the structure concerned does not take place.



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investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. We do not provide
tax, accounting, or legal advice to our clients, and all investors are advised to consult with their tax, accounting, or legal advisers regarding any potential investment. The material is based on information
that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete and/or up to date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date
appearing on this material only and only represent the views of the author and not those of Goldman Sachs, unless otherwise expressly noted.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure: We are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage firm. The professionals who prepared this material are paid in part based on
the profitability of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., which includes earnings from the firm's trading, capital markets, investment banking and other business. They, along with other salespeople, traders,
and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein or the opinions
expressed in research reports issued by our Research Departments, and our market making, investing and lending businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views
expressed herein. In addition, the professionals who prepared this material may also produce material for, and from time to time, may advise or otherwise be part of our trading desks that trade as
principal in the securities mentioned in this material. This material is therefore not independent from our interests, which may conflict with your interests. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and
employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have "long" or "short" positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or
derivatives (including options) thereof in, and act as market maker or specialist in, and serve as a director of, companies mentioned in this material. In addition, we may have served as manager or co
manager of a public offering of securities by any such company within the past three years.

Not a Fiduciary: To the extent this material is provided to an employee benefit plan or account subject to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 or Section 4975 of the Internal Revenue
Code, this material is provided solely on the basis that it will not constitute investment advice and will not form a primary basis for any person’s or plan’s investment decisions, and nothing in this material
will result in Goldman Sachs becoming a fiduciary or advisor with respect to any person or plan. To the extent this material is provided to any other recipient, this material is provided solely on the basis
that the recipient has the capability to independently evaluate investment risk and is exercising independent judgment in evaluating investment decisions in that its investment decisions will be based on
its own independent assessment of the opportunities and risks presented by a potential investment, market factors and other investment considerations.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    35
                 Disclaimer for clients (cont.)

Not a Municipal Advisor: Except in circumstances where Goldman Sachs expressly agrees otherwise, Goldman Sachs is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are
not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Legal Entities Disseminating this Material: This material is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Canada by Goldman, Sachs & Co. (or when expressly
noted as such, by Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P.) and by Goldman Sachs Administration Services (Canada) Co.; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman
Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore)
Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited, Mumbai Branch; in Ireland by Goldman Sachs Bank (Europe) Public Limited Company; in Europe
by Goldman Sachs International (unless stated otherwise); in France by Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. et Cie and/or Goldman Sachs International; in Germany by Goldman Sachs International and/or
Goldman Sachs AG; in the Cayman Islands by Goldman Sachs (Cayman) Trust, Limited; in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Banco Múltiplo S.A.; and in the United States of America by Goldman,
Sachs & Co. (or when expressly noted as such, by Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P.) (both of which are members of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC) and by Goldman Sachs Bank USA. You may
obtain information about SIPC, including the SIPC brochure, by contacting SIPC (website: http://www.sipc.org/; phone: 202-371-8300). Goldman Sachs International, which is authorized by the
Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, has approved this material in connection with its distribution in the United
Kingdom and European Union. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a Goldman Sachs entity in your home jurisdiction if you want to use our services in effecting a transaction in
the securities mentioned in this material. This material is not for distribution to retail clients, as that term is defined under The European Union Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2004/39/EC)
and any investments, including derivatives, mentioned in this material will not be made available by us to any such retail client.

Reproduction and Re-Distribution: No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without our prior written consent. Notwithstanding
anything herein to the contrary, and except as required to enable compliance with applicable securities law, you (and each of your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose to any and
all persons the U.S. federal income and state tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) that are provided to you
relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, without Goldman Sachs imposing any limitation of any kind.

Information Not for Further Dissemination: To the extent this communication contains Goldman Sachs’ pricing information, such pricing information is proprietary and/or confidential and is provided
solely for the internal use of the intended recipient(s). You are notified that any unauthorized use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication or its contents, including pricing
information, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. Further, unless prohibited by local law, any use, review or acceptance of this information is subject to and manifests your agreement with Goldman
Sachs to use such information only in accordance with the terms set forth above. Goldman Sachs has caused its proprietary information to be delivered to you in reliance upon such agreement.

Not a Valuation: Values herein are not customer valuations and should not be used in lieu of a customer valuation statement or account statement. These values may not reflect the value of the
positions carried on the books and records of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates and should not be relied upon for the maintenance of your books and records or for any tax, accounting, legal or other
purposes. The information provided herein does not supersede any customer statements, confirmations or other similar notifications.




                                                                                                                                                                                                               36
                 Disclaimer for clients (cont.)

Indicative Terms/Pricing Levels: This material may contain indicative terms only, including but not limited to pricing levels. There is no representation that any transaction can or could have been
effected at such terms or prices. Proposed terms and conditions are for discussion purposes only. Finalized terms and conditions are subject to further discussion and negotiation.

OTC Derivatives Risk Disclosures:

Terms of the Transaction: To understand clearly the terms and conditions of any OTC derivative transaction you may enter into, you should carefully review the Master Agreement, including any related
schedules, credit support documents, addenda and exhibits. You should not enter into OTC derivative transactions unless you understand the terms of the transaction you are entering into as well as
the nature and extent of your risk exposure. You should also be satisfied that the OTC derivative transaction is appropriate for you in light of your circumstances and financial condition. You may be
requested to post margin or collateral to support written OTC derivatives at levels consistent with the internal policies of Goldman Sachs.

Liquidity Risk: There is no public market for OTC derivative transactions and, therefore, it may be difficult or impossible to liquidate an existing position on favorable terms.

Transfer Restrictions: OTC derivative transactions entered into with one or more affiliates of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Goldman Sachs) cannot be assigned or otherwise transferred without its
prior written consent and, therefore, it may be impossible for you to transfer any OTC derivative transaction to a third party.

Conflict of Interests: Goldman Sachs may from time to time be an active participant on both sides of the market for the underlying securities, commodities, futures, options or any other derivative or
instrument identical or related to those mentioned herein (together, "the Product"). Goldman Sachs at any time may have long or short positions in, or buy and sell Products (on a principal basis or
otherwise) identical or related to those mentioned herein. Goldman Sachs hedging and trading activities may affect the value of the Products.

Counterparty Credit Risk: Because Goldman Sachs, may be obligated to make substantial payments to you as a condition of an OTC derivative transaction, you must evaluate the credit risk of doing
business with Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.

Pricing and Valuation: The price of each OTC derivative transaction is individually negotiated between Goldman Sachs and each counterparty and Goldman Sachs does not represent or warrant that the
prices for which it offers OTC derivative transactions are the best prices available, possibly making it difficult for you to establish what is a fair price for a particular OTC derivative transaction; The value
or quoted price of the Product at any time, however, will reflect many factors and cannot be predicted. If Goldman Sachs makes a market in the offered Product, the price quoted by Goldman Sachs
would reflect any changes in market conditions and other relevant factors, and the quoted price (and the value of the Product that Goldman Sachs will use for account statements or otherwise) could be
higher or lower than the original price, and may be higher or lower than the value of the Product as determined by reference to pricing models used by Goldman Sachs. If at any time a third party dealer
quotes a price to purchase the Product or otherwise values the Product, that price may be significantly different (higher or lower) than any price quoted by Goldman Sachs. Furthermore, if you sell the
Product, you will likely be charged a commission for secondary market transactions, or the price will likely reflect a dealer discount. Goldman Sachs may, but is not obliged to, make a market. To the
extent Goldman Sachs makes a market, any price quoted for the OTC derivative transactions, Goldman Sachs may differ significantly from (i) their value determined by reference to Goldman Sachs
pricing models and (ii) any price quoted by a third party. The market price of the OTC derivative transaction may be influenced by many unpredictable factors, including economic conditions, the
creditworthiness of Goldman Sachs, the value of any underlyers, and certain actions taken by Goldman Sachs.

Market Making, Investing and Lending: Goldman Sachs engages in market making, investing and lending businesses for its own account and the accounts of its affiliates in the same or similar
instruments underlying OTC derivative transactions (including such trading as Goldman Sachs deems appropriate in its sole discretion to hedge its market risk in any OTC derivative transaction whether
between Goldman Sachs and you or with third parties) and such trading may affect the value of an OTC derivative transaction.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      37
                 Disclaimer for clients (cont.)

Early Termination Payments: The provisions of an OTC Derivative Transaction may allow for early termination and, in such cases, either you or Goldman Sachs may be required to make a potentially
significant termination payment depending upon whether the OTC Derivative Transaction is in-the-money to Goldman Sachs or you at the time of termination.

Indexes: Goldman Sachs does not warrant, and takes no responsibility for, the structure, method of computation or publication of any currency exchange rates, interest rates, indexes of such rates, or
credit, equity or other indexes, unless Goldman Sachs specifically advises you otherwise.

Goldman Sachs is not regulated in Ukraine. You should ensure that you have all necessary licences to hold cash / securities (as applicable) offshore.

GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS AFFILIATES NEITHER UNDERTAKE BANKING, FINANCIAL, OR INVESTMENT CONSULTATION BUSINESS IN OR INTO THE UAE WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE
CENTRAL BANK BOARD OF DIRECTORS' RESOLUTION NO. 164/8/94 REGARDING THE REGULATION FOR INVESTMENT COMPANIES NOR PROVIDE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OR
CONSULTATION SERVICES IN OR INTO THE UAE WITHIN THE MEANING OF EMIRATES SECURITIES AND COMMODITIES AUTHORITY DECISION NO. 48/R OF 2008 CONCERNING
FINANCIAL CONSULTATION AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS.


Notice to South African Investors

Goldman Sachs does not provide tax, accounting, investment or legal advice to our clients, and all clients are advised to consult with their own advisers regarding any potential investment/transaction.
This material is for discussion purposes only, and does not purport to contain a comprehensive analysis of the risk/rewards of any idea or strategy herein. Any potential investment/transaction described
within is subject to change and Goldman Sachs Internal approvals. Goldman Sachs International is an authorised financial services provider in South Africa under the Financial Advisory and
Intermediary Services (“FAIS”) Act, 2002. However it is exempt from certain provisions of that act with respect to Certain Clients, which may include you, by virtue of the Notice on Amendment of
Exemptions 2012.


Notice to Australian Investors

When this document is disseminated in Australia by Goldman, Sachs & Co. (“GSCo”) , Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”), Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (“GSALLC”) or Goldman Sachs (Singapore)
Pte (“GSSP”) (collectively the “GS entities”), this document, and any access to it, is intended only for a person that has first satisfied the GS entities that:

• the person is a Sophisticated or Professional Investor for the purposes of section 708 of the Corporations Act of Australia; and
• the person is a wholesale client for the purpose of section 761G of the Corporations Act of Australia.

To the extent that the GS entities are providing a financial service in Australia, the GS entities are each exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence for the financial
services they provide in Australia. Each of the GS entities are regulated by a foreign regulator under foreign laws which differ from Australian laws, specifically:

• GSCo is regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission under US laws;
• GSI is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, under UK laws;
• GSALLC is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under Hong Kong laws; and
• GSSP is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws.




                                                                                                                                                                                                             38
                   Disclaimer for clients (cont.)

Notice to New Zealand Investors

When this document is disseminated in New Zealand by Goldman, Sachs & Co., this document, and any access to it, is intended only for a person that has first satisfied Goldman Sachs that the person
is someone:

• whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invests money; or
• to whom an offer of the interests may be made in circumstances that do not constitute an offer to the public for the purposes of section 3 (excluding section 3(2)(a)(iia)) or section 5(2CB) of the
Securities Act 1978 (NZ).

No offer to acquire the interests is being made to you in this document. Any offer will only be made in circumstances where disclosure is not required under the Securities Act 1978 (NZ), the Securities
Regulations 1983 (NZ) or the Securities Regulations 2009 (NZ).


Notice to Brazilian Investors

The offer of any securities mentioned in this message may not be made to the general public in Brazil. Accordingly, any such securities have not been nor will they be registered with the Brazilian
Securities Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários) nor has any offer been submitted to the foregoing agency for approval. Documents relating to the offer, as well as the information contained
therein, may not be supplied to the public in Brazil, as the offer is not a public offering of securities in Brazil.

Ouvidoria Goldman Sachs Brasil: 0800 727 5764 e/ou ouvidoriagoldmansachs@gs.com

Horário de funcionamento: segunda-feira à sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9hs às 18hs.

Ombudsman Goldman Sachs Brazil: 0800 727 5764 and / or ouvidoriagoldmansachs@gs.com

Available Weekdays (except holidays), from 9 am to 6 pm.

More information

The ombudsman is a channel for the customer to make claims of products and services of Goldman Sachs that were not solved through usual channels. The service will be held by a person duly
certified for this activity and to evaluate your claim the following principles will be used: transparency, independence and impartiality.


Notice to Chilean Clients

Any securities discussed in this presentation have not been registered in the securities register kept by the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros ("SVS"), as foreign securities, and, therefore, they are
not subject to the supervision of the SVS. The securities are not directed to the Chilean Market, consequently, this message neither is nor constitutes and cannot be deemed as a public offer, as
regulated in the Chilean Securities Market Law, N° 18.045 (“Ley de Mercado de Valores”), of the securities to any Chilean resident.




                                                                                                                                                                                                               39
                 Disclaimer for clients (cont.)

Notice to Colombian Investors

For products and/or services marketed through the Goldman, Sachs & Co. Representative Office – The products and/or services described herein are being marketed to you by the Representative
Office (the “Representative Office”) of Goldman, Sachs & Co. (“GS&Co.”), which has been authorized by the Colombian Financial Superintendency (the “Superintendency”) to act in accordance with
the provisions contained in Decree 2555 of 2010 (“Decree 2555”) and Chapter V, Title I of External Circular 007 of 1996 (“Circular 007”) issued by the Superintendency. GS&Co. will provide and/or
render such products and/or services to you and, subject to the disclaimers described herein, assumes responsibility for such products and/or services. Subject to the disclaimers otherwise described
herein, the legal, accounting, financial, commercial and administrative characteristics, including the applicable governing law, of the products and/or services are described herein or have otherwise
been or will be provided to you. GS&Co. is registered as a broker-dealer and an investment adviser with, and is subject to the supervision of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the
“SEC”). GS&Co. is also registered as a futures commission merchant and a swap dealer with, and is subject to the supervision of, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the “CFTC”).
GS&Co. is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"), the New York Stock Exchange, and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (“SIPC”). SIPC protects SIPC-eligible
assets custodied in GS&Co. accounts held in the same title and capacity up to an aggregate maximum of $500,000, of which $250,000 may be in cash. Assets not held by GS&Co. (including interests
in private funds) and certain other assets are not subject to SIPC or supplemental insurance coverage. You may obtain information about SIPC, including a brochure describing SIPC and information
about which assets are eligible for SIPC protection, by contacting SIPC via telephone at 202-371-8300 or accessing the SIPC website at www.sipc.org. None of the products and/or services of GS&Co.
are insured by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). Any complaint regarding the promotional activities carried out by the Representative Office can be sent by mail to the following
address in Colombia: Calle 67 No. 7-35, Oficina 1204, Bogotá – Colombia or directly to your sales professional. The Representative Office is not required under Colombian Law to have a customer
ombudsman.

For offers of securities in the Republic of Colombia – This material is for the client’s sole and exclusive use and cannot be understood as being addressed to, or be used by, any third party, including but
not limited to those third parties for which the addressee can legally or contractually represent. The securities have not been and will not be offered in the Republic of Colombia (“Colombia”) through a
public offering pursuant to Colombian laws and regulations and will not be registered in the Colombian National Registry of Securities and Issuers or on the Colombian Stock Exchange. The client
acknowledges that the Colombian laws and regulations (specifically foreign exchange and tax regulations) are applicable to any transaction or investment made in connection with the securities and that
the client is the sole party liable for full compliance with any such laws and regulations. The investment in the securities is a permitted investment for the client under its corporate bylaws and/or
particular applicable investment regime. Please contact your sales representative for further information about the securities and applicable selling restrictions.


© 2013 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                40
                  Disclaimer for clients based in Japan

Product Specific Risk Disclosure
The ideas detailed in this presentation may involve the purchase of options, in this case the premium paid may be lost if favourable market movement for the structure concerned does not take place.



<特定投資家用資料>
本資料は、特定投資家のお客さまのみを対象に作成されたものです。本資料における金融商品は特定投資家のお客さまのみがお取引可能であり、特定投資家以外のお客さまからのご注文等はお受けで
きませんので、ご注意ください。

商号等/ゴールドマン・サックス証券株式会社 金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第69号
加入協会/ 日本証券業協会、一般社団法人金融先物取引業協会、一般社団法人第二種金融商品取引業協会

本書又はその添付資料に信用格付が記載されている場合、日本格付研究所(JCR)及び格付投資情報センター(R&I)による格付は、登録信用格付業者による格付(登録格付)です。その他の格付は登
録格付である旨の記載がない場合は、無登録格付です。無登録格付を投資判断に利用する前に、「無登録格付に関する説明書」( http://www2.content.gs.com/disclaimer/ratings.html )を十分にお読み
ください。




                                                                                                                                                                                                        41

				
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Description: The Charts That Matter