改革开放三十年扶贫工作的 回顾与展望

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改革开放三十年扶贫工作的 回顾与展望 Powered By Docstoc
					  Impacts of Global Financial Crisis on
the Chinese Poor and Policy Responds


                Min Tang

          Deputy Secretary General of
    China Development Research Foundation
                 October 2009
                 Outline
   How Severe of the Impacts on Chinese
    Economy?

   How Severe of the Impact on the Chinese
    Poor ?

   What Are the Policy Responds and its
    Impacts?
Macroeconomic Impacts
   The Chinese economy was hit badly in the
    last quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009;

   Thanks for the strong stimulation policy, the
    economy has gradually recovered in the
    second half of 2009;

   external market is still weak given the world
    economic situation;
Impacts on Growth
     GDP   Agriculture   Industry   Service
Export and Import Dropped
Sharply in China




                            importt

                            export
Impacts on Labor Market
   In the second half of 2008 and first half of
    2009, unemployment rate increase sharply;

   While official registered unemployment rate
    was 4.3%, some scholar’s estimation shows
    that the survey unemployment could be as
    high as 6.3%。
 Unemployment Rate
        Registered       Survey                 Registered       Survey
Year                                  Year
       Unemployment   Unemployment             Unemployment   Unemployment
1997       3.1            4.50        2005         4.2            5.16
1998       3.1            6.29        2006         4.1            6.12
1999       3.1            5.87        2007         4.0            5.34

2000       3.1            7.61       2008年1Q       4.0            NA


2001       3.6            5.55       2008年2Q       4.0            NA


2002       4.0            6.14       2008年3Q       4.0            NA


2003       4.3            6.02       2008年4Q       4.2            NA

2004       4.2            5.78
   Rural Migrants and College Graduates were
    two group which are suffered most;

   By 2008,there were 225.4 million rural
    migrants in which 140. 4million worked out of
    their own township 。
       2008 Unemployment Estimation

                                                 Unemployment
                       2008 Export Decline (%)
                                                   1(1000)
Agriculture                     15.13               17930
Mining                          15.13                1110
Manufacture                     15.13               12850
Electricity                     15.13                 500
Construction                    15.13                 140
Transportation                  9.26                 1950
Wholesale and Retail            9.26                 4990
Real Estate                     9.26                  300
Finance                         9.26                  290
Other Services                  9.26                 1370

              Total             14.61              41,430
              2009 Unemployment Estimation
                                                 Unemployment1
                       2008 Export Decline (%)
                                                    (1000)
Agriculture                     8.43                 10080
Mining                          8.43                  620
Manufacture                     8.43                  7210
Electricity                     8.43                  280
Construction                    8.43                   80
Transportation                  5.59                  1120

Wholesale and Retail            5.59                  2880

Real Estate                     5.59                  170
Finance                         5.59                  170
Other Services                  5.59                  790
          Total                 8.17                 23,400
Some Surveys Results
   By Oct. 2008. 4.85 million rural migrants were back home,

   By Nov 2008, it increased to 8. 45 million

   By Dec. 2008, it increased to 10 million,

   By Jan. 2009, it reached 53. 9 million, among them 21.3 million
    lost their job; 。

   By now, there were still about 4 million has not yet find a job.
Impacts of Crisis on Poverty
A great success in poverty reduction
Poverty Increase after the
recession
   Through slow down of income growth of rural
    areas

   Through unemployment of rural migrants

   Through unemployment of college graduate
    from rural families
Price Change of Farm Products
        Wheat    Cotton   Soil Bean
         Pork      Egg    Peanut
Rural Income and Poverty

    25                                                                                                                                  3.5

                                                                                                                                        3
    20
                                                                                                                                        2.5

                                                                                                                                        2
    15
                                                                                                                                        1.5

    10                                                                                                                                  1
%




                                                                                                                                        0.5
     5
                                                                                                                                        0

                                                                                                                                        -0.5
     0
         1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
                                                                                                                                        -1

    -5                                                                                   Per capita income growth                       -1.5
                                                                   年份                     人均纯收入增长率
                                                                                          贫困发生率降幅(百分点)
                                                                                           Poverty Ratio Changes
Trend of College Graduates
 10,000
Unemployment by Education
                                    Urban                     Rural
Education                                           Unemploymen
                         Unemployment        %                         %
                                                         t
Illiterate                   2.9             0.4        0.4            2.9

Elementary School            4.9             6.7        1.5           21.0

Junior High                  7.1            51.4        3.2           67.3

Senior high                  10.7           24.1        5.8            7.3

College ( three years)       8.0            11.4        7.5            1.4

College (four years)         6.0             5.5        9.1            0.2

Graduate School              2.9             0.3       26.0            0.0

             Average         7.9            100.0       3.1           100.0
   Increase Number of Poverty Compared to 3Q of 2008
                                           ( Unit: million)

                                                    Model 2
               Model 1
                                                    Based on the World
               Based on                             Bank’s $1.08 per
               Government’s low                     person per day
               income poverty                       expenditure
4Q of 2008                   3.01                           7.15

1Q of 2009                   0.77                           5.85

2Q of 2009                  - 5.07                         - 5.63

             Source:Estimated by authors of this paper
Policy responds to the Poor
   4 trillion stimulation package to increase
    economic growth and employments

   Large proportion of the 4 trillion package are
    invested in rural areas and social welfare
    system

   Special policies toward SME development
    and private sector investment;
Policy responds on Rural Poverty

   Establish a rural minimum living standard supporting
    system, currently covered more than 30 million rural
    poor;

   Speeding up new rural cooperative medical
    insurance system, currently covered more than
    90% or 800 million rural population

   Pilot testing a rural pension system, it will cover 10%
    rural population soon and cover all by 2020;
Policy responds on Rural Poverty

   Provide free training to unemployed rural migrants;

   Strengthen social security system for rural migrants

   Provide some funding for rural migrants who would
    like to establish a small business at home

   Strengthen information system for rural migrants to
    get a job
Policy responds to unemployed college
graduates

   Unemployed college graduates are covered
    by unemployment insurance

   Encourage enterprises to provide internship
    to college graduates

   Provide allowance to the graduates attending
    to the internship
Policy responds to the urban poor

   Increase the monthly allowancing for the
    retirees and urban poors;

   Extend social pension and other social
    welfare system to the informal sector and
    self-employed;

   Strengthen social safety net for urban poor;
                                 Q&A
                                      Min Tang
                    Deputy Secretary General
China Development Research Foundation, CDRF
                              http://cdrf.org.cn
                   Email: tangmin@cdrf.org.cn
                  Tel and Fax:8610-84080188

				
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