Sulfur Emission Trends and Forecast Data compiled, analyzed, and presented by: Chris Bamat Sandy Fergus Ryan Mackin Chris Rolland Presented on May 1, 2006 Sustainable Air Quality Washington University Professor R. Husar Introduction This presentation was designed to give a brief overview of the trends of SOx Emissions with respect to different sectors as well as different fuel types. Each of the following charts give specific representation of energy data gathered from 1940 to 2002 along with a forecast up to the year 2050. Relevance to Energy Consumption Sulfur emissions are a harmful pollutant produced during the combustion of fossil fuels. The fuels are separated into five different categories for analysis in order to track the amount of emissions produced by each: Coal Natural Gas Oil Electricity Other sources Energy production is the main reason these fuels are burned and thus sulfur emissions are the direct by-product of this process. As a result, energy consumption and sulfur emission are very closely connected and the analysis of energy consumption will help to shed light on emission trends. A perfect example of this connection is seen when measuring energy efficiency since energy efficiency determines the percentage of energy lost to pollution. Commercial/Residential This category is comprised of emissions from commercial businesses and residential homes. The major sources of emissions in this category are • electric utilities • coal • a minimal amount from oil and • virtually nothing from natural gas. The emissions from commercial/residential result entirely from the energy production for homes and businesses. Industrial The industrial sector includes: • Chemical & Allied product mfg.(both organic and inorganic) • petroleum refineries & related industries (oil & gas manufacturing, natural gas, and fluid catalytic cracking units) • Metal processing (non-ferrous, copper, lead, aluminum) • Wood, pulp & paper • Mineral products • Cement manufacturing • Waste disposal and recycling Industrial continued The emissions resulting from industrial activity: • Mostly from coal combustion since older factories use coal to produce a majority of their energy. • Slightly less than coal from oil • The remainder from gas and also from industry's allocated amount of electric utility. Transportation This sector includes: • On-road vehicles (motorcycles, light duty gas vehicles, light duty gas trucks, heavy duty gas trucks, and diesels) • Non-road vehicles (non-road gas, non-road diesel, aircraft, marine vessels, and railroads) • Non-road others (agriculture & forestry, other combustion, and fugitive dust). Transportation continued From greatest to least the contributors in this sector are: • Diesel engines • Marine vessels • Light duty gas vehicles & motorcycles • Light duty gas trucks • Railroads • Heavy duty gas trucks • Aircraft. Transportation continued Vehicles are used to convert energy into motion in order to transport people and things. This energy produces sulfur emissions mainly through the combustion of gasoline and diesel fuels. FUEL COMB. ELEC. UTILTIES 20000 18000 16000 14000 SO2, 1000 Tons/yr 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 El. Util CoalTot OilTot GasTot OtherTot Coal Project. Oil Project. Gas Project. El. Util Project. Other Project. Shows the SOx emission from the use of coal, gas, and oil for Electrical Utilities. Coal is clearly the largest contributor in this section, producing nearly all of the total electric utility emissions. The emissions peak in 1977 and again in 1984. This plot is particularly important because the electric utilities sector contributes to a majority of the total SOx emissions since the 1950's Shows the SOx emissions for the combined industrial industry. This includes coal, gas, and oil, with coal being the greatest contributor. There has been a seemingly steady decline in the emissions with a peak in 1970; however the emissions from gas have been increasing since 1975. The emissions from oil have been decreasing since 1981. Shows the SOx emissions from the manufacturing of Chemicals, Sulfur compounds, agricultural chemical, and other chemical manufacturing. There are very little emissions coming from the agricultural chemical manufacturing. The biggest contributor is from Chemical, then from Sulfur compounds. There is a peak in the emissions in 1970, and from 1984 to 1989. Emissions have been increasing again since 1998 with a hint of leveling off since the past few years. Shows the SOx emissions from processing copper, lead, and ferrous metals. Copper is the largest contributor, with very little being contributed from lead and ferrous metals. There is a large increase in emissions from copper in 1970 with the emissions decreasing ever since. Shows the SOx emissions from petroleum, petroleum refineries, and other petroleum. There is a large peak from the refineries section in the 1970, and in 1981 from other petroleum industries. Shows the SOx emissions from cement manufacturing, the wood, pulp, & paper industry, and from other industrial processes. The component entitled “OtherInd” represents the total emissions for this section. There is a peak in 1978 in both the cement manufacturing and the wood, pulp & paper industry. It can be seen that there was an enormous decline just after this peak in the cement manufacturing industry. Shows the SOx emissions from on-road vehicles. This includes light-duty gas vehicles & motorcycles, light-duty gas trucks, heavy-duty gas vehicles, and diesel. There is a peak in 1990 for diesels. Light-duty gas trucks have been steadily climbing since 1973 and currently contribute to a significant amount of the total whereas before 1973 they contributed virtually nothing to the total. Shows the SOx emissions from non-road vehicles. This sector includes marine vessels, railroads, and non-road diesel. There was a major drop in railroads in 1960 which caused a major decrease in the overall emissions. Since then there has been a slow but steady increase in all sectors since 1971. Shows the total SOx emissions for each sector. This includes the electric utilities, industrial, residential and commercial, transport, and metals. Electric utilities peaked in 1977 and have been decreasing ever since. There is a small increase in 1971 for the industrial and metals sector. Summary The trends show that all sectors are decreasing in SOx emissions. This is a result of better technology and the consumption of cleaner fuels regardless of increased consumer demand.
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