CAPTIONS Web figure 1. Root mean squared errors ... - Cirad

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CAPTIONS Web figure 1. Root mean squared errors ... - Cirad Powered By Docstoc
					CAPTIONS


Web figure 1. Root mean squared errors between transpiration observations and
simulations of the year 2004 (a) and the associated Gelman-Rubin variance ratio for
all steps. Observations are the transpiration measured in Lamanon and the
simulations are done with the MCMC algorithm. Only the successful steps of the
MCMC method (with non-informative instrumental laws) are plotted on the RMSE
(root square of mean squared errors) curve, from which the last 80 % have been used
to estimate the final RMSE mode and parameter distributions.

Web figure 2. Fit (observations/simulations r²) evolution (a) of the PACA
dendrochronological series simulated by MAIDEN for the MCMC calibration
method and the associated Gelman-Rubin variance ratio for all steps (b). Only the
successful steps of the fit evolution are plotted, from which the last 80 % have been
used to estimate the final fit and parameter distributions.

Web figure 3. The evolution of the first three parameters as a function of the
iterations (a) and the probability distribution of the eleven parameters (b) and their
modes (dashed lines). Only 80% of the successful runs are used to draw the
histograms (4000 steps).

Web figure 4. Comparison of the three standardized bole increment evolutions
deduced from the calibration methods and the corresponding observations on the
basis of the Istres meteorological 1950-1994 period. The calibration methods are
figured by different colors: PEST: green, PF: red, MCMC: blue and observations in
black.

Web figure 5. Fit (observations/simulations r²) evolution of the MAIDEN
dendrochronological series for the PF calibration. The flat curve for the freezing
years 1984-85 indicates that they were not used during this calibration.

------

Web table 2. List of the MAIDEN parameter elasticities deduced from the three
model calibrations of the MAIDEN model (± 5% PEST calibration; ± 5% MCMC
calibration; ± 5% PF calibration; ± 50% MCMC calibration). For additional
information, the elasticity means associated to all parameters and all calibrations are
shown.
                                                                                       Observation-simulation RMSE
                            Gelmann-Rubin variance ratio




Web figure 1
               Iterations
                                                               Successful iterations
                                                                                                                     a




                                                           b
   Observation-simulation fit                                          a




                                            Iterations

                                               Successful iterations


                                                                       b
             Gelmann-Rubin variance ratio




                                                         iterations
Web figure 2
Parameter values
                   a                                         Gdd         b


                                                             a1



                                                             D0

                       Iterations
                                                             θc
                                    … Probability density…


                                                             c2



                                                             fstore→bole
                                                                   →




                                                             fnpp→bole
                                                                 →




                                                             LAImax



                                                             Vcmax



                                                             Photoper



                                                             Rday
                                                                             Parameter values

   Web figure 3
                       Standardized bole increment (g/mm²)




Web figure 4
               Years
  Fit values (r²)




                    Years




Web figure 5
PARAM           N°   ± 5%, PEST   ± 5%, MCMC   ± 50%, MCMC   ± 5%, PF   MEAN
ETER
ELASTI
CITIES
Gdd             1    -0.0863      -0.1166      -0.1473       -0.1979    -0.1370

A1              2    0.0170       -0.3256      -0.0157       0.1487     -0.0439

D0              3    0.0175       0.0323       -0.0354       -0.0723    -0.0145

θc              4    -0.0082      0.0337       0.0772        -0.2428    -0.0350

C2              5    0.3560       0.4145       0.5872        0.4597     0.4543

fstore → bole   6    0.0007       -0.0263      -0.0017       -0.2613    -0.0721

fnpp → bole     7    0.0002       -0.0038      -0.0035       -0.0222    -0.0073

LAImax          8    0.5684       0.3395       0.5246        0.5048     0.4843

Vcmax           9    0.5008       0.3778       0.4763        0.2650     0.4049

Photoper        10   0            -0.6416      -0.6840       -0.7001    -0.5064

Rday            11   -0.2580      -0.1772      -0.1639       -0.2535    -0.2131

tmax            12   -0.4195      -1.1806      0.7217        -0.7773    -0.4139
tmin            13   0.0218       0.0049       0.0470        0.0044     0.0195

p               14   0.1106       0.4004       0.5705        -0.0976    0.2459

MEAN                 0.0586       -0.0620      0.1395        -0.0887    0.0118




Web table 1

				
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