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Baseline Survey 2004

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					Baseline Survey 2004
Presentation of Results and Highlights
    Lusaka, November 10th, 2005
Introduction
   Summary and highlights
      Who participated

      How do people participate in the political process
       (existing modes and potential means)
      Perceptual realities and obstacles

      The Good News

      Concluding thoughts
The Basic Facts – Who Participated
      Citizens
                                      80
      Stakeholders              60

      MPs
                                                  Citizens
                                                  Stakeholders
Stakeholders                                      MPs

   Staff of National Assembly
   Media                                  1200
   NGOs working with NA
The “How” of Democracy at work.
   Zambians feel strongly about Accountability.
   Elections make a difference…
       Nine in ten citizens believe that “if the members of the
        National Assembly ignored what the people of Zambia have
        to say” they would “probably” (12 percent) or “definitely”
        (79 percent) lose the next election.
       81% of MPs are “fairly certain” that they would lose an
        election if they ignored public opinion.
       And in the middle: 55% of Stakeholders believed the MPs
        would lose the election.
More on the “How”…
    Public participation can influence MPs…
    When asked if it was possible to make an MP listen
     by contacting them…
     92% of MPs thought it possible;
     48% of citizens thought is possible;
     And, 58% of Stakeholders thought is possible.



    Question: what kind of contact? Is one form
     better then another?
Inducing responsiveness of MPs through collective
  community groups.
   Joining Community organisations:
                    Citizens Stakeholders        MPs
                      63%            74%         72%
   Joining large churches or trade unions:
                       Citizens   Stakeholders   MPs
                        63%           80%        76%
Interesting numbers on Church Organization
     Collective organization through Church
      organizations in Zambia is very strong
     90 percent belong in some form to a religious group
     55 percent saying they are “active” members



   Zambians’ level of affiliation in church
    organizations is the highest recorded in any of
    the 16 Afrobarometer countries.
Structures that can enhance democratic
  participation of Zambians exist.
     Democratic history of voting and elections
     Strong collective organisation via churches and other
      bodies
     Strong and active civil society

   So what is the problem?
Perceptual Gaps
     One quarter of citizens think that MPs are interested
      or very interested in hearing what people like think.
          This is a decline from the 36 percent in 1999.
   Nine in ten MPs feel that they and their colleagues
    are interested or very interested.
   And, 48% of Stakeholders believe that MPs are
    interested or very interested in hearing what other
    Stakeholders think.
Some agreement on performance of MPs
     When it comes to the actual performance of MPs,
      such as representing the people of Zambia,
        49% of MPs thought they were doing well or very well.
        39% of Citizens thought MPs were performing well or
         very well in representing Zambians.
        And, 25% of Stakeholders thought MPs were performing
         well or very well in representing Zambians
One possible explanation for
 underperformance…
   MPs too sick to work. Stress and travel, amongst
    other factors, makes the job of MPs a challenging
    task.
       16 percent said they were “often” so worried or anxious
        that they felt tired or worn out (a classic definition of
        depression)
In the past month, how much of the time:
                                             Never   Rarely   Sometimes   Often   NA
Has your physical health reduced the
    amount of work you normally do            17      37         32        15     (14)
    inside or outside your home?
Have you been so worried or anxious
    that you have felt tired, worn out, or    10      36         31        16     (14)
    exhausted?
A second reason:
Travel a major obstacle for MPs
   Although MPs expressed a strong desire to spend
    more time listening to and meeting the people, it is
    personally costly to MPs.
   Nine in ten say that travel costs constitute a “major
    burden” to them (88 %), and one half say the time
    costs are a major burden (49 %).
A third reason…?
   MPs dissatisfied with their salaries

                                       Not Satisfied     Not                     Very
                                                                   Satisfied
                                          At All       Satisfied               Satisfied
Your current salary as member of the
                                            75            19          3           2
   National Assembly
Current allowances for constituency
                                            81            16          2           0
    work
Resources for constituency offices          83            16          0           0

   Possible linkage - this is a common factor in assessments relating
    to corruption, which was a component of the survey
Perceptual Gaps (return)
       One quarter of citizens think that MPs are interested
        or very interested in hearing what people like think.
            This is a decline from the 36 percent in 1999.
     Nine in ten MPs feel that they and their colleagues
      are interested or very interested.
     And, 48% of Stakeholders believe that MPs are
      interested or very interested in hearing what other
      Stakeholders think.
   What should MPs be doing?
Setting priorities for MPs
          Asked to indicate three key areas a vast majority mentioned
           various elements of development work.
Development
Deliver development                                           51
Improve infrastructure                                        46
Implement health policies                                     19
Improve agriculture / Help farmers                            20
Implement Education policies                                  14
Help the poor                                                 7
Social welfare issues                                         5
Representation
Listening to people                                           29
Represent people                                              28
Knowledge and information gap
   Interestingly, even though people think MPs aren’t
    performing adequately, 34% don’t actually know
    what an MP spends most of their time doing.
   Negative perceptions, however, dominate.
       Half said they thought MPs spend most of their time
        looking after personal affairs.
       6% felt that MPs actually spent time developing the
        community (which was a priority for 40%)
More perceptual differences…
   With regard to Committee work, a majority of MPs feel
    it is easy for CSOs to access hearings, make
    submissions, or offer testimony.
   Stakeholders, on the other hand, were less positive
    regarding the ease with which it is possible to interact
    with Committees.
   However, both agreed overwhelmingly that there is too
    little interaction between CSOs and Committees.
The Good News
1.   Citizens perceive government to be more transparent
        Mostly due to a substantial increase in media output and
         access to media.
2.   Citizens perceive government to be less corrupt
        Perceptions of corruption in the National Assembly and
         amongst government officials have declined markedly since
         1999, but have increased for police, border officials and
         teachers and school administrators.
And finally…

   The political process is an enigma wrapped in mystery.

   Since 1999, surveys have consistently shown that seven
    and eight of every ten people agree or strongly agree
    with the statement: “Politics and government seem so
    complicated that you can’t really understand what’s
    going on.” The 79 % agreement in 2003 was the highest
    level recorded for the 16 Afrobarometer countries in
    2002-3003.
Thank you for you attention and attendance.

				
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