A Safe Climate Future

A Safe Climate Future climate code red •You’ve all heard about climate change – how urgent do you think it is? •Do you know what is required for a safe climate future? 1 climate code red • The presentation is based on the publication Climate Code Red, originally begun as a submission to the Garnaut Review. • During the writing of Climate Code Red the extraordinarily rapid Arctic ice melt reinforced the authors’ view that dangerous climate change is not only a future threat, but is happening now. • The authors’ motivation became one of informing people of the global emergency signalled by the melting ice, that we need to put aside business and politics as usual, and devote ourselves to an emergency response to ensure a safe climate. 2 Framework • • • • • • • • The big melt Current emissions Current impacts Why 2 degrees is too high Cool the earth Construct a post carbon society Who will lead? What to do climate code red 3 Summer 2001- Arctic ice climate code red • This is the average extent of summer Arctic ice in 2001 • Arctic sea ice melts each northern summer and refreezes each winter - but the new winter ice is thin and vulnerable. • Since the 1990s there’s been an accelerating loss of sea ice, both in extent and thickness.. •The sea ice minimum extent in late summer 2001 was close to the long-term average. • In 2005 it shrunk to 21% below the average, • By 2007 it shrunk again., to 39% below. [Source: US National Sea Ice Data Center, nsidc.org] 4 4 years - 21% loss climate code red • From 2001 - 2005: Arctic ice average extent is 21% less 5 2 years - 20% loss climate code red • From 2005 - 2007: Arctic ice average extent is ANOTHER 20% less in just 2 years 6 climate code red • Arctic Sea Ice area average was similar area of Australia. • Around the warming of +0.5 during the 1970s, from 1979 to 2000 (~20yrs) – area the size of NSW was lost – the first domino had fallen [Area 1979 – 2000 7.04 mill sq KM approx area of Australia minus NSW] See www.carbonequity.info/seaice.pdf referencing National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Univ. of Colorado 7 climate code red • From 2000 – 2005 (5 yrs) area size of NT (1.47 million sq km) also lost • Area remaining in 2005 = 5.57 mill sq km 8 climate code red • 2005 – 2007 (2 yrs) SA + VIC + Tas (1.29 million sq km) lost • 20% in 5 years followed by further 22% in 2 years – is astounding! • Rapid sea ice disintegration has stunned scientists • The state of the Arctic is the most significant indicator of today’s global warming. • Area remaining summer 2007 = 4.28 mill sq km 9 climate code red • The Arctic meltdown was initially triggered by temperature change due to human GHGs • This process, once started has a momentum of its own • This is an example of ‘positive feed back’ where the initial warming accelerates further warming • As ice melts this creates more dark, open water which absorbs the sun’s heat, whereas ice reflects 80 % of the sun’s heat. (This is called the “albedo effect”) • Higher ocean temperature contributes to more heat in the atmosphere • Higher temperatures lead to more melting of ice etc. • Cycle continues until all ice is gone. 10 Melting of Arctic sea-ice (IPCC) climate code red • The dotted lines show the range of sea ice loss predicted by IPCC’s models in 2001. (They haven’t updated these since). The red line is the average. So the models predict total loss of summer ice some time around 2100. • The thick black line shows the actual loss. • The dashed black line projects the current trend and matches modelling by a US Navy researcher, whose model incorporated ice thickness data and predicts total loss of summer ice by 2013. • “Most likely development” is according to IPCC models • Dashed black line projects current trend and matches modelling by US Navy researcher Wieslaw Maslowski (http://secure.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/May032006_Dr.WieslawMaslowski.pdf) 11 Greenland ice sheet break up is accelerating climate code red • This photo is a dramatic illustration of the melting of the Greenland ice sheet in a massive waterfall effect into a large opening 10 metres in diameter called a “moulin”. • Meltwater descends through the moulins, down to the bedrock, contributing to the movement of the ice sheet by lubricating it underneath. • From the New Scientist, 1st May 08 Researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts reported last month that they had watched a lake in Greenland 3 kilometres across empty down a kilometredeep crack in the ice within 90 minutes - a discharge that, they said, "exceeded the flow of Niagara Falls". • This is far different from the expectation that the ice would melt gently like an ice cube melting in a glass of water. 12 climate code red • The red are shows the first recorded melt and the pink the area melted in 2005 http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/ http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/melt2005and1992.5i nch.jpg 13 We are close to being committed to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet Professor Tim Lenton, University of East Anglia, Norwich U.K. Today’s level of CO2 is enough to cause massive ice sheets such as on Greenland to eventually melt away We cannot tie a rope around a collapsing ice sheet James Hansen, Director NASA USA leading climate scientist climate code red • If all of the Greenland ice sheet melts, global sea levels will rise 5 – 7 metres. 14 The Antarctic AWAKENING GIANT climate code red • The Antarctic is now known as the ‘Awakening Giant’ • On February 28 this year the Wilkins Ice Sheet on the Antarctic Peninsula disintegrated. • The impact is slower there because there is much more heatabsorbing ocean in the southern hemisphere. • A major loss of ice in the Antarctic would be disastrous for billions of the world’s population – causing refugee problems that would dwarf anything we have ever seen. Photo from NASA 15 1metre rise in sea level = coastline retreat 100 metres climate code red • Every 1 metre rise in sea level the coastline will retreat 100 metres (Barrie Pittock 7.30 Report March 13 2007) • If we get warming of 2 to 3 degrees C, we can expect the West Antarctic ice sheet and parts of Greenland to melt risking sea level rises of 1 meter every 20 years, and 5 metres in a century. (Hansen, 7.30 report 13 March 2007) • Most populations live by the coast 16 Infrastructure based on current sea levels climate code red •This is the Port Melbourne waterfront www.portphillip.vic.gov.au 17 Permafrost is melting climate code red • The permafrost is land that has existed in a permanently frozen state. In the arctic this covers half of Canada, most of Alaska and much of northern Russia. • As the Arctic water warms, the permafrost is thawing with the potential to release tonnes of trapped methane into the atmosphere. • Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent in it’s warming effect than carbon dioxide. • This is another example of a positive feedback accelerating warming. Images from globalwarmingactionalliance.org 18 “The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming… and now … the canary has died.” Dr Jay Zwally Glaciologist, NASA December 2007 climate code red •The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming… and now as a sign of climate change, the canary has died.” Dr Jay Zwally, glaciologist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Source: Seth Borenstein, ‘Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?’, Associated Press, 12 December 2007. •Why? Because more than 80% of the volume of the mass of sea ice in the Arctic has already been lost. •Scientists with expertise on the Arctic environment predict that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in summer between 2010 and 2013, and that once lost, the Arctic summer sea-ice will not return, unless we can cool the planet. •The authors of CCR are not aware of any well-informed climate scientist who thinks that it is possible to have a safe climate or avoid dangerous climate change with the permanent loss of the Arctic summer sea-ice. 19 STOP STOP STOP! climate code red • We’ve got to STOP heating up the Earth! 20 climate code red • Yet to the contrary, we are accelerating the rate at which we pour the warming GHGs into the atmosphere 21 climate code red • Scientists conclude that, having been stable, within a range, for 800,000 years, Carbon Dioxide, one of the major greenhouse gases, is now accumulating in the atmosphere at a shocking rate, much more rapidly than at any other time in recorded history • In the 1950’s the gas was building up at an average annual rate of around 1 part per million (ppm), by the late 20th century by 1.8ppm • In the last 17 years we have added 30ppm 22 climate code red • The billions of engines we run with fossil fuels (coal, petrol, oilbased fuels and gas) play a leading role in producing CO2 • In Australia it is the burning of coal to create electricity is one of the major reasons why Australian’s have one of the largest carbon footprints per capita in the world. 23 GHG Rate of Increase 30ppm* in the last 17 years In last million years – 30ppm has never taken less than 1000 years * parts per million = measure of concentration of GHG in atmosphere climate code red • • GHG levels have increased by 30ppm in the last 17 years Over the last million years, an increase of 30ppm has never taken less than 1000 years 24 GHG emissions per person (tonnes) 25.6 24.5 14.1 10.4 3.9 3.3 1.9 Australia USA Developed Country Average Japan China Developing Country Average India climate code red Data from World Resources Institute 2005 25 Global emissions from fossil fuel and cement IPCC Garnaut 47 40 30 33 Gigatonnes carbon dioxide 22 22 25 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 climate code red • RED: shows the growth in emissions in the worst case scenario painted by the IPCC in 2007. • GREY: Garnaut said in Feb 2008 that predictions are already far worse than IPCC worst case scenario. • With business as usual, note that by 2020 they are predicted to more than double the 1990 level. Source Garnaut Interim Report Feb 2008.Fossil fuel actual and projected emissions. P 18. 26 How long have we got? climate code red 27 impacts time for action 10 to 20 years ago point of no return time climate code red 28 impacts time for action now point of no return time climate code red • The time for action before the point of no return is rapidly diminishing 29 We are creating a looming warming catastrophe The Danger is NOW climate code red • We are creating a looming warming catastrophe. • Stern has said on April 17, 2008: ‘I underestimated the threat of global warming in my report in Nov 2007. Emissions are growing faster than we thought. The planet’s capacity to absorb is less than we thought. The risks of greenhouse gases are worse and are potentially bigger than more cautious estimates. And the speed of climate change is faster’. • The Danger is NOW 30 Water crisis China climate code red • Already we are seeing serious impacts 31 Food crisis World food prices have doubled in the last three years climate code red • World Bank President (Robert Zoellick) estimates that world food prices have doubled in the last three years, pushing 100 million people in low-income countries deeper into poverty • The poorest of the world spend 80% of their income on food, so this escalation of prices means many are facing starvation. Age April 15th 08 •The price of rice, a staple in the diets of nearly half the world’s population, has almost doubled on international markets in the last three months…. The New York Times, March 29th 08 • Children to go hungry as food crisis bites Age April 24th 08 32 Waves of destruction climate code red • Rising seas are changing Britain's coast dramatically. Norfolk is the first low-lying area to face a stark and cruel new choice plough millions into doomed defences, or abandon whole villages to the invading waters. Patrick Barkham reports Guardian 17 April 2008 • Most of the owners of these houses on Beach Road, Happisburgh have left. One house was recently valued at one pound . See photo by Graeme Robertson • Sea levels are rising at the rate of 3.5mm per decade – double the rate 50 years ago. (Hansen ABC interview- Kerry O’Brien 13.3.07) • A rise of 3cm can cause a rise in waves at high tide of 1.65m (The Age April 2007) 33 Existing atmospheric GHG commits Earth to a warming of +2°C 2030 or earlier +2° +0.3° +0.6° +0.3° + GHG this decade + thermal inertia + albedo flip 1970s Arctic melt begins +0.5° +0.8° 2008380ppm Arctic + Greenland + Antarctic melt all temperatures relative to pre-industrial average global temperature climate code red • These figures are based on human total emissions continuing at the current rate (and NOT taking into account predicted increases of 60% by 2030). • Don’t factor in positive feedbacks such as permafrost melt, or carbon sinks loss of absorption capacity • A warming of +2 degrees is a global average, and implies that there will be regional differences in increase with some areas such as at the poles experiencing temperature rises of up to 5 degrees. • +2 degrees in not a destination it is just a sign post…..the climate system will not stop at this temperature rise • We can choose to continue to race toward it as we are now - with a brick on the accelerator or try to pull up now, by putting our foot on the brake… • To settle for +2 degrees is like saying that someone in intensive care who because they are not dead is deemed to be well!! • In summary – with the current level of GHG in the atmosphere, plus Earth’s growing GHG contribution due to feedbacks, plus the continued growing rate humans are emitting GHGs – we are currently on a path to utter ecological devastation! 34 Temperature rise tips the balance climate code red • Temperature rise tips the balance of the earth’s system 35 Upset by emissions since industrialisation climate code red • Balance upset by emissions since industrialisation producing +0.8 degree C global average rise 36 Further upset by emissions coming this decade climate code red • Further pressure from emissions coming this decade adding 0.3 degrees C 37 More – from delay in heat from current emissions climate code red • More – from delay in heating from current emissions – called thermal inertia. • This brings the total increase expected in the next 10 to 20 years to +1.7 degrees C which further tips the balance of the climate system to what will be an irreversible tipping point of no return 38 The Arctic Ice melting is the last straw climate code red • The last straw threatening tipping us over the edge is the further melting of the Arctic Ice - expected to be completely gone within 5 years and expected to add a further 0.3 degrees to the warming. • The existing level of greenhouse emissions commits us to around 2 degrees warming, without taking into account •the increase in emissions expected with business as usual, and •the impact of positive feedbacks not factored in ( such as warming oceans not absorbing carbon dioxide, carbon sinks releasing carbon dioxide). • And remember 2 degrees is only a sign post – it is not a destination – if we approach it too quickly we are likely to sail right past… 39 Catastrophic warming looms!! climate code red 40 There is no such thing as a climate steady state at 2°C It is feared the global average temperature will run away to +3°, +6°……. climate code red 41 climate code red • IMPACTS approaching +2degrees • Extinction of 15- 40% of plant and animal species, they cannot adapt quickly enough • Dangerous ocean acidification, leading to coral bleaching, ocean food chain destruction and dead oceans • Widespread drought and desertification across the globe – particularly Australia – this is Lake Wendouree, Ballarat • More frequent killer heat waves – such as the one in Europe in 2003 which killed 22,000 to 35,000 people. 42 climate code red IMPACTS Approaching 3 degrees • 40% of Kakadu fresh water lost • drought intensity may triple in Australia • increased sea level exponentially heightens storm surges – severe coastal erosion • millions of climate refugees – sea level rise, crop failure, no water 43 climate code red • The Amazon produces 10% of the world’s photosynthesis and has evolved no resistance to fire. • At 2 or 3 degree temperature rise it is feared that drought and mega fires could turn trees back into CO2 as they burn rot and decompose. • In human terms this would be the equivalent to the cutting off the earth’s oxygen supply during an asthma attack. 44 climate code red "As rising temperatures cause the Himalayan ice sheet to melt, long- term water-flows into Asia’s great rivers and breadbasket valleys — including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yangtse, and Yellow rivers — will fall dramatically. If global temperatures rise by 3 degrees, which is becoming the unofficial target for some governments of richer nations, water flow in the Indus is predicted to drop by 90 per cent by 2100. Recent estimates are that the Himalayas may be completely ice-free before 2050, or even sooner. The lives of two billion people are at stake.“ CCR 45 Climate catastrophe for all Life on Earth climate code red 46 So in fact we have to COOL the earth back to a climate stable temperature 1970s 320ppm +0.5° climate code red • The bottom line is that we cannot leave the Arctic ice-free in summer and avoid climate catastrophe. • To ignore or downplay the challenge of the Arctic, is playing dice with our own future and the future of our children. • We must cool the planet back to a stable temperature that will allow the Arctic to return to stable ice cover. • We know that the maximum temperature we can afford then is nothing higher than +0.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. 47 The tipping points for large ice sheet and species loss were crossed when we exceeded 300-350 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a point passed decades ago ( now at 383 ppm ) We need to stop emissions and reduce the greenhouse gases in the air to cool the planet NASA’s James Hansen December 2007 climate code red • Eminent NASA climate scientist James Hansen says we must quickly cool the planet. The tipping points for large ice sheet and species loss were crossed when we exceeded 300-350 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a point passed decades ago (now at 380ppm ) We need to stop emissions and reduce the greenhouse gases in the air to cool the planet • A 0.5 degree C temperature cap is associated with atmospheric levels of ghg of about 320ppm. 0.5 degrees C was the temperature rise to 1980. 48 You have no right to bargain away any species or human lives by setting temperature targets higher than +0.5°C climate code red • Targets higher than the GHG concentrations or temperature at the time the Arctic began to melt, by definition means we are willing to sacrifice lives to keep using fossil fuels and doing “business as usual”. • This generation has no right to make that choice for others • Our species has no right to make that choice for other species 49 Our goal is a safe climate future For all people, for all species , for all generations climate code red • Setting “targets” of temperature or ppm of GHG that are unprecedented in Earth’s history means we are agreeing to sacrifice some people e.g. Pacific Islands, many species and future generations. • We must make our goal a safe climate future for ALL. 50 Lucy and Jack don’t have a safe climate future Write a time capsule letter to your kids or grandkids, and tell them what you’re doing about Climate Change for their futures. climate code red • What will you tell your young children you did about Climate Change when they’re adults? • Or if they’re already grown up – your grandchildren? 51 What sort of world will Jessie face if we continue as we are…..?? climate code red • We know that for all life, including human, basic survival will be a daily struggle. Our kids may hate us for trashing the planet. 52 A safe climate future ! climate code red • A safe climate requires us to return the global average temperature to a maximum of +0.5 degree increase above pre-industrial levels 53 SO WHAT MUST WE DO? climate code red 54 Post Carbon Society Our failure is not one of technological or economic capacity. It is a failure of political and social will. climate code red • We need to construct a post-carbon society that is also energy efficient. This is not beyond our collective capacity or imagination, given the innovation that has already created a diverse suite of sustaining technologies over the last 30 years. • The failure so far to engineer energy use along sustainable paths is not principally a failure of technological or economic capacity, but of political and social will. 55 climate code red • We have the TECHNOLOGY we have the WEALTH • There are new light weight materials for vehicle construction and household appliances. Carbon neutral buildings do work. • Electricity from renewables is already available and in large scale use, such as concentrated solar thermal plants - operating in Mojaves Desert U.S. since 1991. • It is estimated that an area 35km by 35km in a high radiance area of Australia could supply all our energy needs. And an area the size of Victoria could supply the world’s electricity needs. • Wind power – able to provide 40% of Spain’s energy needs, and is planned to provide 75% of Denmark’s needs by 2025. Photo of World’s largest Horse Hollow Wind Farm provides 736 MW • Hundreds of millions of people are moved by electric mass transport daily. With high speed electric rail run by renewables we could manage without mass air travel. 56 climate code red • We have made a rapid transition to computerised economy and society • Infrastructure rollout, fibre optic networks, wireless networks, satellite… • Renewable energy technology which have NO vices, are mature, commercialised and in use around the world. Australia is missing out and has lost much R&D and commercial enterprise to overseas markets e.g. David Mills (ANU) solar thermal technology to US where it was funded for further development • We are becoming an old economy, captured by vested interests in the old energy system. 57 climate code red Al Gore says: We have a culture of distraction Global emergency Generational mission We can do this We have the capacity Look at the expense of the Iraq war 58 Cost of the Iraq War Includes indirect and future costs US $ 3,300,000,000,000 ie 3.3 trillion UK cost $40 billion Australia $2.2 billion plus climate code red 59 climate code red • A rapid transition to post-carbon economy requires an imaginative large-scale plan comparable to the Apollo programme. • JFK in September 1962: “First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him back safely to the earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the longrange exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.” http://spaceflight1.nasa.gov/gallery/images/apollo/index.html 60 WW 2 1943 Military Expenditure as % of total national economy USA UK Germany Japan Aust 42% 55% 70% 43% 40% climate code red • Does catastrophic global warming deserve the same expenditure, urgency and commitment as WW2? • In Australia it is estimated that 3 to 4% of our economic production over 10 years could secure the country’s transition to a zero emissions economy, without taking into account the benefits of the energy efficiency savings. This is a very cheap investment to be made from which we would benefit forever. 61 A transformation in 1 year climate code red • After Pearl Harbour, the US economy was transformed from the world’s largest producer of consumer goods to world’s largest producer of military goods within a year. • Fast economic transition is possible if it is planned and we really want to do it. 62 Draw down carbon from atmosphere climate code red • We have to stop emitting AND ALSO draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. • Reducing CO2 in the atmosphere allows the carbon sinks of land and the ocean to do their natural job of absorbing carbon. •We need our forests. Photo from www.vicrainforest.org 63 Biochar to store carbon from biomass Locks away carbon Improves soil water retention Enriches soil with minerals and micro organisms Increases fertility and plant yields climate code red • “I think this is one of the most exciting and important new technologies out there, in terms of stabilising our climate” Prof.Tim Flannery May 2007 • This is very different from bio fuel which uses food. Biochar uses wastes from forests, farming and other biological matter. • The pyrolysis (burning with low oxygen) process releases byproducts including methane and hydrogen that can be used for combustion or to feed fuel cells (Helweg-Larsen and Bull, 2007). • This technology has an established ability to take greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and reduce the current greenhouse gas concentration. • This technology is not an excuse to keep emitting GHGs 64 Human Grid Lock waiting isolated in denial in despair no urgency misinformed too busy vested interests climate code red • Waiting – people are waiting for governments or other people to fix it • In denial – I just won’t think about it, it can’t be that bad or somebody would have done something to stop it • No urgency – we’ve got 10, 20, 30 years, sea levels won’t rise significantly in my lifetime • Too busy – how can I fit this into my life as well, I’m too busy to get my head around this, I’m trying to run a household, raise a family and do my job and I’m exhausted doing that! We are distracted – as Al Gore says. • Isolated – people will think I’m extreme if I tell it like it is, nobody will listen, I am sick of being on the margins, I’m already losing friends over this! • In despair – it’s all too late anyway, or I’m too depressed about it to act • Is everyone waiting for everyone else, frightened of setting targets that assure us of a safe climate, for fear of being labelled crazy, fear of being isolated, being pragmatic within the boundaries of acceptance, unwilling to think the unthinkable….? 65 Who will lead? Scientists Public sector Business climate code red Those we rely on to take the lead are blocked. 66 Who will lead? “We do the science. Society makes the judgments. Society defines what is “dangerous” or tolerable. Scientists don’t set policy.” Scientists climate code red Scientists: We do the science. Society makes the judgments. Society defines what is “dangerous” or tolerable. Scientists don’t set policy. 67 Who will lead? “Are targets based on science or politics? Policy should not be seen to be determined by lobbyists. Scientists should speak up!” Public sector climate code red Public Sector: Are targets based on science or politics? Policy should not be seen to be determined by lobbyists. Scientists should speak up.! • Hansen quotes an example of a scientist colleague advocating to a government ‘minder’ that reducing greenhouse emissions could stem sea ice loss. The scientist was rebuked by the government official for advocating policy – when in fact he was stating a scientific conclusion. • Nearer home a group of concerned citizens who raised money to place an advertisement on TV advocating viewers contact their MP about climate change, were warned they were engaging in political advertising. 68 Who will lead? Business “We want to take action but without regulatory certainty how can we make big changes?” climate code red Business: We want to take action but without regulatory certainty how can we make big changes? 69 Who will lead? Climate Action group No pulp mill Save the whales Multi issue Environment group Climate friendly MP climate code red Who will lead? 70 Who will lead? Climate Action group “We can’t speculate on what a few leading scientists are now saying if it isn’t in the IPCC reports.” climate code red Climate Action Groups: We can’t speculate on what a few leading scientists are now saying if it isn’t in the IPCC reports. 71 Who will lead? No pulp mill Save the whales “If we lobby for what is really needed we won’t be taken seriously. We’ll push for more later.” Multi issue Environment group climate code red Who will lead? Multi-issue environment group: If we lobby for what is really needed we won’t be taken seriously. Push for more later. 72 Who will lead? “I can’t go further than the environment movement. I’d look too extreme.” Climate friendly MP climate code red Climate Friendly Politicians: I can’t go further than the environment movement; I’d look too extreme. So who is going to break the human gridlock and lead us to a safe climate future? 73 “This is an emergency and for emergency situations we need emergency action” UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, 10 November 2007 (ABC, 2007a) climate code red • To have any reasonable chance of maintaining an habitable planet we must put our efforts on an emergency footing. • The world wars are the obvious case. When life is threatened, even quality of life, people en masse know how to go beyond “business as usual” and do what needs to be done. • What is salient in cases of mobilisation in both war and peace — is the key role of governments in planning, coordinating and overseeing the transition, the very opposite of leaving the deregulated market to its devices and doing “business as usual”. Voluntary measures, “business as usual” and aspirational goals will not eliminate carbon emissions from production; they will have to be squeezed out by strong regulatory and investment actions by government. The particular nature of that government will depend on the capacity of people to build its democratic character, to provide national leadership when “politics as usual” fails to do so. 74 Zero Emissions Now IPCC Garnaut 47 40 30 33 Gigatonnes carbon dioxide 22 22 25 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 climate code red Global emissions from fossil fuel and cement • This is the graph we looked at earlier showing where our emission are heading. • We need to get to zero emissions as soon as possible, before we reach the point of no return. • What can you do to get us to Zero Emissions asap? • RED: shows the growth in emissions in the worst case scenario painted by the IPCC in 2007. • GREY: Garnaut said in Feb 2008 that predictions are already far worse than IPCC worst case scenario. • With business as usual, note that by 2020 they are predicted to more than double the 1990 level. Source Garnaut Interim Report Feb 2008.Fossil fuel actual and projected emissions. P 18. 75 Global emissions from fossil fuel and cement ed ict ed pr IPCC Garnaut Gigatonnes carbon dioxide Zero 1990 2000 2010 2020 climate code red • This is where Life on Earth needs emissions to go. 76 Australian solar technology lost to California $I billion every few weeks. Government guarantees loans climate code red Photo NY Times • Australia is losing out on valuable solar expertise. Solar thermal entrepreneur Professor David Mills has recently left Sydney University seeking US investment for his technology. • He’s finding a willingness to invest a billion dollars every week and the support of Government backing for which secures the loans for new technology. • Driving the boom is California’s renewable energy target of 33% by 2020 compared with Australia’s 20% target. • Mills says this technology could supply 90% of all Australia’s energy needs. 77 Solar thermal energy- could supply 90% of Australia’s energy climate code red • Solar thermal energy uses a field of solar reflectors to create a hot fluid to run steam turbines. The system can use low cost energy storage in artificial thermal reservoirs. 78 Beyond Zero Emissions 50% reduction in 3 years in Victoria •Fuel switch to gas from coal •Energy efficiency •Wind power for 33% •Solar thermal for 10% climate code red • Beyond Zero Emissions – a climate change campaign group have proposed Victoria could reduce stationary energy emissions by 50% in 3 years in Victoria by: • Making a fuel switch from coal to gas • Embark on a massive energy efficiency program to retro fit housing with insulation, draft proofing , double glazing • Use existing technology to install wind power for 33% of supply. This would entail building 7 wind farms equivalent to those use in Texas since 2006 • Install solar thermal technology for 10% 79 New HRL power station for Loy Yang Low Greenhouse Power from brown coal !!! – 30% less emissions climate code red ….Yet we keep building more coal fired power stations • In Victoria a new coal fired plant due to come on line at Loy Yang (VIC) by 2009 • It will use technology that reduces use of brown coal by 30% hence will reduce emissions by 30%. This makes the brown coal equivalent to dirty black coal! • Some are pinning their hopes on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology 80 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) “A few years ago…...clean coal was a great option. We are now worried about how long it will take and how much it’s going to cost on the scale we’re talking about. We are on a wing and a prayer… for a banker to put any money into clean coal technology.” John Boshier National Generators Forum April 2008 climate code red • Truth is - Great store has been placed in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) so that we can continue to rely on coal. • But even the electricity suppliers have doubts about its viability. • Reported on 7.30 Report ABC April 7 2008 by John Boshier of the National Generators Forum (NGF) which directly represents the 22 major power generators in the National Electricity Market. • John Boshier added: “We have to find carbon capture and storage for….200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide rising to ..300 million tonnes by 2030. That’s a lot of carbon storage sites to find”. • Among other problems, if it leaks (and it has before), it’s deadly. • The coal industry has been heavying the government on three key elements for the government to: • take the lead in technology demonstration so they don’t have to pay to develop it • finding sites for carbon dumps, • and covering the coal sector's behind by taking on long-term liability for leakage • The coal industry itself doesn’t have faith in this approach and • We don’t have the time…! 81 climate code red • Whilst this short flick is American-centred, it shows a glimpse of where we’re going. • Note that the pace of change cited in this flick is now known to be TOO SLOW to avert dangerous climate change, based on actual data. 82 We know how to respond in an emergency climate code red • We know how to respond in an emergency. Human societies are able to develop well-honed emergency methods for handling familiar crises, especially when they are frequently repeated, such as floods, fires, storms, droughts and, in some societies, wars. • We must mobilise the considerable human, social, technology, political resources to solve this unprecedented crisis. …while continuing to block false arguments, partial solutions and vested interests in maintaining the status quo. 83 …it is impossible to design realistic solutions unless we first understand and accept the size of the problem. …..placing our efforts on an emergency footing is long overdue. We only play this game once; a trial run is not an option Ian Dunlop Former CEO Australian Institute of Company Directors climate code red 84 “Failure is not an option!” climate code red • Today the message from spaceship Earth can only be: “People of the world, we have a problem”. Our planet’s health and capacity to function for the journey through time is now deeply imperiled. We stand on the edge of climate catastrophe. Like Apollo 13, we have only one option and that is, for the duration, to abandon our life-as-normal project and hit the emergency button, to plan with all our ingenuity how to survive and with unshakeable determination build a path for a return to a safe climate • Earth and to act with great speed and efficacy. Our life support systems — food, water, stable temperatures — are at risk, and our consumption of fossil fuels is completely unsustainable. Energy use must be cut. The voyage will be perilous and require intense and innovative team-work to find and mobilise technological and social answers to problems. Putting aside the “cost-toomuch” mantras, our collective actions need to be driven instead by the imperative that “Failure is not an option!” • If we do not succeed, we lose not just a small spacecraft but most of life on this planet. 85 Failure is not an option climate code red 86 A safe climate future all people all species all generations climate code red Photo www.curiousanimals .com 87 Support • Formal declaration of state of emergency • Public education campaign • Plan for Zero-Emissions-Australia • Invest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel based energy sources • Implement energy efficiency • Incentives – Feed In Tariffs work • Public transport infrastructure climate code red • Public Education campaign: must highlight the urgency, be can-do & solutions focused, impart ownership-to-act • Zero-Carbon-Australia: This plan must be executable quickly and justly. It must include existing solutions, equitably rolled out so that everyone is included and can afford to participate. It must be implemented authoritatively as we don’t have more time for debate. • Invest in renewable energy: other jurisdictions around the world are spending billions of prudent investment dollars on the rollout of renewable energy technologies such as solar thermal. • Energy Efficiency: through minimum energy star ratings, building codes, less wastage, change of habit • Incentives: 40 jurisdictions (countries and states) have very effective Feed In Tariffs driving very fast uptake of distributed energy production by households and businesses. Germany has 400 times the amount of solar panels installed as Australia and MUCH LESS SUN! Reward business and residents for reducing their demand and for sourcing their supply of energy from renewables. • Public transport: build and run public transport effectively instead of more roads 88 Don’t Support • Subsidies to fossil fuel industry • Subsidies for cars, road freight transport, volumebased discounts on usage • Logging of old-growth forests • Subsidies industry for petrol based cars • Expansion of exploration for oil. • Coal mining and expansion of coal exports • Nuclear power • Research into Carbon Capture and Storage climate code red • $10 billion subsidies to fossil fuel: Renewable energy technologies are NOT on a level playing field when it comes to competition with the heavily subsidised fossil fuel industry. AND, Our taxes are propping up carbon emissions! • Expansion of exploration for oil: the federal government is providing financial incentives to find what is getting harder to find – OIL! • Nuclear Power: high emissions process to mine and enrich uranium, uranium stocks are limited, toxic wastage management problem and risk, too risky to afford insurance so governments would have to back them, too slow to come on line to avoid climate catastrophe. 89 What to Do? Politicians & Policy Makers • Stay informed • Acknowledge the climate emergency • Policy, legislation and incentives for a zero greenhouse emissions society • BE the political leadership that is missing climate code red • Stay informed: be directed by the science and working solutions – don’t make yourself vulnerable to powerful vested interests and misinformation • Climate Emergency: unleashes the resources and cooperation we need to solve this crisis 90 What to Do? Business Leaders • Stay informed • Lobby for business certainty • Business opportunities • Manage risks • New Business Paradigm – go there climate code red • Stay informed: this is a quickly changing variable to doing business – climate is changing faster than expected, laws are being passed, consumers are growing in awareness, competitors are taking action, the global economy is shifting, involve your staff • Lobby: legislation which enables zero emissions and provides for business certainty • Business Opportunities: with change comes opportunity – where are yours? • Manage risk: Plan and implement your own carbon reduction to prepare for carbon trading and avoid penalties. • New Business Paradigm: carbon neutral, closed manufacturing systems, market yourself in the emerging green economy 91 What Should I Do? • Spread the message • Demand action • Minimise your own carbon footprint • Plan your travel • Take action at work • Form a climate action group climate code red • Spread the message: talk to your friends, family and work colleagues about climate change – do you know what they think about it? • Demand action: tell your elected reps. the issue is urgent and demand they take action • Minimise your carbon footprint: change to green electricity or generate your own! • Plan your travel: investigate how you can build non-emitting (walking, cycling) options into your life, investigate public transport options and use them • Take action at work: start a project at your workplace to go carbon neutral • Take local action: form a local climate action group in your neighborhood, work place, school, union, professional association 92 climate code red Al Gore makes the following points: • Everything is affected by Climate Change • Global mobilization • We have work to do • Political will must be mobilised 93 climate code red • This is planet Earth as seen from far away in space. This planet is our home, our only home. Our planet is surrounded by an atmosphere of gases, we breathe its oxygen. The earth’s atmosphere is very thin and fragile - if Earth were a bowling ball, its atmosphere would be the layer of polish on the surface. • Our home’s fragile atmosphere is being filled up with GHG pollution because its human inhabitants have reached a size and scale of population, and reliance on the digging up and burning of ancient fossil fuels, that can no longer be sustained by the natural systems of the planet. • We have a Climate Emergency. 94 JOIN Climate Emergency Network ClimateEmergencyNetwork.org climate code red • The Climate Emergency Network is a rapidly growing network of climate action groups, campaigning for the declaration of a climate emergency, to mobilise with the urgency needed and avoid the looming climate crisis. • The Climate Emergency Network is networking, engaging, educating and building the momentum we need to help our political leaders find their will. • Ask questions, take action, BE part of the solution, BE the best you can be, because the Earth needs you, now. • We’re all in this together, so what are YOU going to do about Climate Change? 95