The Future of Power is Carbon-Free by realtuff29

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									The Future of Power is Carbon-Free

        Sharing Knowledge Foundation

                         Philippe Paelinck
                     Chania - April 7, 2008
The Alstom group:
Two main activities, three sectors


    Equipment & services             Equipment & services
    for power generation               for rail transport




  • Alstom Power Systems              • Alstom Transport
  • Alstom Power Service
Power systems news


                              Ecotècnia, Spain
                              - a successful medium size company
                              recently acquired by Alstom




• Proven products
• 3 MW prototype under construction
• Over 1,500 turbines sold since 1981
  (1.5 GW total capacity installed)



Coal, Gas, Hydro, Nuclear, Wind = full power systems portfolio !
            CO2 from fossil fuel combustion

                                           30                                                                30
                                                                                                                        1%      Others
                                                 Total: 26,6 Gt in 2005
World CO2 fossil emissions




                                                                                           GtCO2 by fuel
                                                                                                                      37%       Coal
                                                                                                             20

                                                                                                                      20%       Gas
                                           20
                             Gton of CO2




                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                Petroleum
                                                                                                                      42 %

                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                  Adapted from CDIAC12004



                                           10                                                                30




                                                                                           GtCO2 by sector
                                                                                                                      16 %      Others

                                                                                                             20        22 %     Transport
                                                                                                                                            Power by fuel
                                                                                                                      22 %      Industry
                                                               Units:1 Gt =   10^12   kg
                                                                                                             10                               3%    Oil
                                           0                                                                                                  8%    Gas
                                                                                                                      41 %      Power
                                                                                                                                             70 %   Coal
                     Year                   1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
                                                                                                             0
                     Adapted from CDIAC 2004                                                                                   1
                                                                                                                  Source: IEA/OECD (2006)


                 Coal generates 70% of the CO2 emissions from power generation
    What is One Gigaton of CO2 ?

     HOW BIG ?

• A balloon of 10 km diameter
• The yearly emissions of 400 million cars (160 gr/km and 15,000 km/yr)
• The yearly emissions of the power sector in Europe

     MITIGATION ACTIONS FOR 1 GT CO2/Yr

•    Plant a forest bigger than France+Germany (900,000 km2)
•    Convert an area equal to 2x UK to Biofuel crop (480,000 km2)
•    Build 325 « zero emission » 800 MW coal fired plants
•    Build 190 new nuclear plants of 1GW each


                    CO2 is a Green House Gas, not a pollutant…
Sources: Power Systems analysis / Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, DOE Sept 2006
     Total worldwide CO2 reduction requirements
                         Energy-Related CO2                      42
                             Emissions                           Gt
            45
                              Reference
            40
                              Scenario
            35                              Power related
                                                                      -50% by
                                                                      2030
Gt of CO2




            30
                                                  Other
            25
                    27
            20      Gt                                           23
                                                                 Gt   -80% by
            15              450 ppm Stabilisation Case
                                                                      2050
            10
             2005    2010         2015    2020   2025     2030


 Fossil Fuel Emissions should peak in 2012 to limit T° increase <2°C
  Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007
Evolution of power market
                                                  Share of Power capacity
         Installed base by fuel *
                                                    increase by region *

                                                                           2005 - 2030

                                8.0 TW
                                                                     EU
                                         Coal
                                                 RoW                9%          NAM
          4.2 TW      8.0 TW                                             11%
                                         Gas             31%
                               Coal
                                         Oil                   9%

         4.2 TW                Gas
                                         Hydro
                                         Ren.            10%
                               Oil                                  39%
                               Hydro
                                         Nuc.
            2005
                               Ren.
                                  2030           INDIA                         CHINA
                               Nuc.




          Sustained growth driven by Asia and Fossil Fuels
* ALSTOM Long Term Market Analysis
Evolution of power CO2 emissions

         Annual Power sector CO2                        Annual Power sector CO2
           emissions by fuel *                           emissions by region *



                                19 Gt/yr                            19 Gt/yr

                                                                               RoW

           11 Gt/yr                    Coal
                                         Coal          11 Gt/yr
                                                                               China

                                                                               India

                                       GasGas                                  NAM
                                       OilOil                                  Europe
             2005                 2030                   2005         2030



    China will add 4GT of emissions mainly due to power from coal
* IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 – Reference scenario
 Investment priorities

  •     Demand Reduction
           Consumer behavior
           Efficient appliances and buildings
           Energy management

  •     Technology Mix
            Nuclear
            Renewables

  •      Production Efficiency
            Fuel Preparation/Retrofit
            New Plants

  •      Carbon Capture and Storage

Source: Power Systems analysis
 Demand reduction

  •     Consumer behavior
           Policies
           Awareness

  •     Efficient Appliances & Buildings
            Energy saving appliances
            Smart control
            Stringent energy standards


  •     Energy Management
           Smart Grids
           T&D optimization
           NegaWatts – Peak load control



                Power demand and growth are however coupled…
Source: Power Systems analysis
 Electricity savings from more efficient
 appliances in China


                                      200

                       TWh per year   160

                                      120
                                            Three Gorges (85 TWh)
                                      80

                                      40

                                       0
                                               2015             2020             2030
                                                Air-conditioner savings Refrigerator savings



                     Efficiency standards can have a strong impact
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007
 Technology Mix: Nuclear

  Opportunities
                                          581

  •       + 200 GW by 2030
                                   388

                                   2005   2030

  •      …not including capacity
        replacement


  Challenges
  •      Political acceptance & permitting
  •      Lead times and finance
  •      Human resources




Source: Power Systems analysis
 Technology Mix: Renewables

  Opportunities
                                                   1532
                                            858
  •    Hydro: + 700 GW by 2030              2005   2030




  •    All other Renewables:                       713

       + 600 GW, from 2 to 9% share !       97
                                            2005   2030




  Challenges
  •      Grid compatibility and stability
  •      Energy storage
  •    Environmental constraints and
       acceptability

Source: Power Systems analysis
Biomass and Fuel Preparation

Opportunities
•   Up to 20 % CO2 avoided
•   Retrofitable to existing coal plants
•   Flexibility – low incremental cost
                                            Biomass Co-firing: - 20% CO2
•   Most efficient use of biomass


Challenges
•   Biomass logistics and availability

                                           Lignite drying Retrofit: - 10% CO2
      Impact of Efficiency increase on emissions

                       1600

                       1400                  Worldwide
                                              Average
CO2 Emission [g/kWh]




                       1200

                       1000                                    -35 % - 42% CO2
                                                                           CO2        Lignite
                       800
                                                                                      Black
                       600
                                                                                      Coal
                       400
                                          Status of
                       200               Technology                                    Gas
                                                             Future Steam
                                                           Power Plant (700°C)
                         0
                              25   30   35      40       45       50      55     60

                                              Efficiency [%]
 Production Efficiency: Retrofit

  Opportunities
  •     10 % CO2 avoided
  •     Short lead times
                                                                                                      Plant Optimisation: -5% CO2
  •     60% of Carbon emitted by 2030 is from
        plants existing today

                                 350
                                                     From New Plant
                                 300
                                                     From existing Plant
              Gt CO2             250
           Cumulated W-W         200                                                                    Turbine retrofit: -5% CO2
           power emissions
                                 150
                                 100
                                  50
                                   0
                                       2006

                                              2009

                                                     2012

                                                            2015

                                                                   2018

                                                                          2021

                                                                                 2024

                                                                                        2027

                                                                                               2030




Source: Power Systems analysis                                                                          Boiler retrofit: -3% CO2
 Production Efficiency: New Plants
Opportunities
•      Higher cycle temperatures
•      Coal: from 32% to 50% saves 40%
       CO2 emissions
•      60% of the 2030 installed base still to
                                                                                                        Coal Plant: >50% efficiency by 2020
       be build
                                 10000
                                                 New Build
                                  8000
                  GW              6000
                                                 Existing Plant
             Cumulative W-W
            Installed Capacity
                                  4000

                                  2000

                                     0
Challenges
                                         2006

                                                2009

                                                       2012

                                                              2015

                                                                     2018

                                                                            2021

                                                                                   2024

                                                                                          2027

                                                                                                 2030
                                                                                                        NGCC Plant: >60% efficiency by 2020
•      Power before efficiency leading to
       Carbon stranded assets
Source: Power Systems analysis
 CO2 Capture and Storage

  Opportunities
  •     Firm technology roadmaps
  •     Portfolio of technologies
  •     Retrofitable to existing and future
        fossil fuel plants                     We Energies 5 MW Chilled
                                                Ammonia construction


  Challenges
  •     Funding of first 20 large plants by
        2015
  •     Transport and storage infrastructure
  •     Acceptance and framework               Vattenfall 30 MW Oxy-PC
                                                     construction
Source: Power Systems analysis
CO2 Capture Solutions

                                 Power Plant with CO2 capture


                SOLUTIONS DEVELOPPED BY ALSTOM

   Post- combustion                         Oxy- combustion                       Pre-combustion
      (New+retrofit)                          (New + retrofit)                       (New only)




                       Source: Vattenfall
                       Source: Vattenfall                    Source: Vattenfall                   Source: Vattenfall




CCS solutions must adapt on installed base
Post-Combustion
Chilled-Ammonia: Process description




Principle
• Ammonia (NH3) reacts with CO2 and water. It forms ammonia carbonate or
   bicarbonate
• Moderately raising the temperatures reverses the above reactions – releasing
   CO2
 Post-Combustion
 Field Pilot at WE Energies


                                             Industrial pilot program

                                             • Project participation through EPRI by over 30
                                             US and international utilities

                                             • Designed to capture up around 15,000
                                             tons/year of CO2 at full capacity
     Pleasant Prairie Power Plant (US)
                                             • Absorber and cooling systems
                                             commissioned

                                             • Erection of regenerator system in completion
                                             • Parametric testing to commence March 2008
                                             • Will provide data necessary to establish
                                             “proof of concept”

Test Bench 5 MW, start up in February 2008
Post-Combustion
Field Pilot at E.ON Karlshamn


                                   Industrial pilot program

                                   • Designed to capture up around 15,000
                                   tons/year of CO2 at full capacity

                                   • Project schedule:
                                       -Commissionning July 08
  Karlshamn Power Plant (Sweden)
                                       -Testing Fall 2008
                                   • Testing to continue into late 2009




     Test bench 3D schematic
Post-Combustion
Demonstrations: AEP & STATOIL



                                    • Designed to capture up around 100,000
                                    tons/year of CO2 at full capacity

                                    • Saline aquifers storage
                                    • Commenced engineering Oct 07
 Industrial demonstrator 30 MWt,
        Mountaineer (US)            • Project commissioning 09


                                    • European Test Centre Mongstad for flue
                                    gases from natural gas CHP plant and a
                                    refinery

                                    • Designed to capture 100,000 tons/year

  Industrial demonstrator 40 MWt,
        Mongstad (Norway)
Post Combustion CO2 Capture
Amine based processes


                                          Amine CO2 capture is proven

                                          • Retrofitable
                                          • Installed on a few plants burning coal
                                          • High energy demand for regeneration


                                          Exclusive partnership with DOW
                                                 – Advanced Amines
        "       '
             & #$" ' %"(   )
                   *+                            – Improved Process
                                                 – Plant Integration



                        $!
                    , !!# )-%   !.' %/
                                            $%
                                         ! "#

               $%
            ! "#
Oxy-Combustion
Oxy-PC: Demonstration 30 MWth: Vattenfall




• Goal: validation and improvement
   of oxyfuel process starting 2008

Main features
• 5,2 t/h solid fuel
  10t/h oxygen
• 40 t/h steam
  9 t/h CO2
• ALSTOM supplies the oxy-boiler
  and ESP


                                      30 MWt Demonstration – Schwarze Pumpe, Germany

  Source: Vattenfall
Oxy-Combustion
Oxy-PC: Demonstration 30 MWth: TOTAL Lacq




• Goal: validation and improvement
  of oxyfuel process starting 2008


Main features
• 40 t/h steam,
  240 t/day Oxygen
• 150,000 tons CO2 will be
  stored in a depleted gas field
                                     30 MWt demonstration – Lacq, France

                                                Source: TOTAL
CO2 Storage:
Several large scale demonstrations on-going

Sleipner, Norway
• 1 Mt/year since 1996
In Salah, Algeria
• 1.1 Mt/y since 2004
Weyburn, Canada
• 2 Mt/y since 2000
Permian Basin, US
• 70+ projects, total of
500 Mt/stored
K12B, Netherlands
• some 100Kt/yr since 2004


  Saline acquifers offer ample storage capacity world-wide
   CO2 Capture and Storage
   Deployment time-line


                                                  Roadmap

Capture        2007           2010                2015                2020              2025          2030

 Post-                                  Pre-
                 Pilot / Demo                                        Commercialisation
 comb.                               commercial
  Oxy-
                    Pilot / Demo       Pre-commercial                        Commercialisation
 comb.
  Pre-
                          Pilot / Demo              Pre-commercial                Commercialisation
 comb.
Transport
 EU,US             Local, limited EOR                       Progressive pipeline deployment,
Australia           projects + Demo                        depending on validated storage sites

Storage
 EU,US                EOR + validation of
                                                         Ramp-up to full scale saline acquifer storage
Australia               storage sites


  Source: Power Systems analysis
 Realistic Reductions in the Power Sector
CO2 emission
             20                               Demand
(Gt/Year)
                                             Reduction

             18
                                                 2,5        Technology
                                                [1 to 4]
                                                               Mix
             16                                                          Production
                                                               1,5       Efficiency

             14                                                             1,5        CCS

                                   19,0                                                2,0
             12                                                                        [1 to 3]



             10


                     11,0                                                                             11,0
              8
                                                                                                     [9 to 13]


              6
                      2005
                     2005         IEA
                                 IEA 2030
                                      2030       Dem and    Technology   Production     CCS        2030 Alstom
                                                                                                  Realistic 2030
                                                reduction      m ix       efficiency                  Target
                  Source: Power Systems analysis                                                     Target


                      450 ppm target needs 6 Gt by 2030…
Conclusions
• All sectors have to increase their effort

• A portfolio approach is needed: Renewables, Nuclear, Demand
  reduction, Efficiency, CCS

• Power emissions cannot be reduced or even stabilized without
  CCS

• Retrofitable CCS technologies are a must to have

• The world targets cannot be achieved without the participation
  of China & Rest of the World as early as 2020.

• US and Europe must show leadership, and fund early large-scale
  CCS demonstration plants

• CCS deployment will be a major industrial challenge and …

                         This is URGENT !
Today we provide the cleanest air solutions
    for new plants
     for the installed base

								
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