110411_International Market Daily - FSS

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					                                                                                               International Market Daily                                                                                                                         April 11, 2011

 Equities Index                  Close        %1 Day          %MTD
 SET                          1,082.69          -0.60           3.36            Escalating concerns about spiraling oil prices
 SET50                          765.81          -0.67           4.05
 Dow Jones 30                12,380.05          -0.24           0.49      MARKET DIRECTIONS
 S&P 500                      1,328.17          -0.40           0.18      Asian stocks look set to trade sideways today, as investors’ concerns about the
 NASDAQ Comp                  2,780.42          -0.56          -0.02
                                                                          impact of spiraling oil prices on their economies have intensified and are likely
                                                                          to outweigh positive support of energy-related shares. However, market losses
 FTSE 100                     6,055.75           0.81           2.49
                                                                          should be limited as attention turns to the upcoming US earnings season this
 Hang Seng                   24,396.07           0.47           3.69      week with relative optimism. Although an international community has
 Nikkei 225                   9,768.08           1.85          -0.20      increasingly showed unease over Japan’s handling of the nuclear crisis, it has
 Shanghai Comp                3,030.02           0.74           3.48      become a non-issue to stock markets outside Japan as it seems the situation
 Weighted Taiwan              8,894.54          -0.08           1.99      should be under control pretty soon.
 KOSPI                        2,127.97           0.27           1.22
 Straits Times                3,187.31           0.49           2.14      FACTORS TO WATCH
 Kuala Lumpur                 1,557.49          -0.28           0.94      Global issues:
 Jakarta Comp                 3,741.81           0.30           1.72      •   Fighting in Libya intensified NATO has raised its air strikes after Gaddafi’s
 Philippines Comp             4,241.01           0.51           4.58          forces increased its attacks on rebels’ bases.
                                                                          •   Japan expects to stop pumping radioactive water into the ocean today,
 S&P ASX 200                  4,940.60           0.14           2.26
                                                                              days later than planned. China and South Korea have criticized Japan's
 VIX Index                       17.87           4.44           0.73          handling of the nuclear crisis, reflecting growing international unease over
 MSCI Indices                    Close        %1 Day           %1 M           the month-long atomic disaster and the spread of radiation.
 MSCI AC World                  348.72           0.44           3.56      •   Clashes in Egypt Protestors clashed with the soldiers after they rejected
 MSCI Asia Pac Ex Japan         501.91           0.52           8.98          Army’s order to disperse from Cairo’s main square on Sunday in the biggest
 MSCI Asia Ex Japan             589.57           0.26           8.19          rally since Mubarak stepped down. They demanded the Army to move quickly
 MSCI EM Asia                   487.86           0.17           8.84          to civilian rule and purge deeper of corrupt officials. Meanwhile, unrests in
 MSCI Thailand                  445.48          -0.67           8.92          other Middle East nations have continued. In Syria, 22 protesters have been
 Foreign Fund Flows                                                           shot dead by the government forces. Yemen Army killed 4 protestors.
 (US Million)                     Last         WTD              YTD       •   Oil surged to a 32-month high on concerns about weak dollar and prolonged
 India                           86.68     1,515.70          858.29           Libya’s supply cuts. US crude surged US$2.49 (+2.21%) to US$112.79 a barrel.
 Indonesia                    1,692.52     1,753.91        1,520.91           Brent jumped US$3.98 (+3.24%) to US$126.65 a barrel, a 32-month high.
 Philippines                     19.45       281.40          262.30       •   Weaker dollar The expectations of more interest rate hikes by ECB drove the
 Korea                          112.62     1,047.81          132.94           euro to a 15-month peak against the dollar as interest rate differentials
 Taiwan                         572.83     1,710.59          591.29
                                                                              between that of the US and Europe will from now on continuously widen.
 Thailand                        27.71       359.45          624.47
                                                                          •   Focus this week will be the first batch of earnings reports for 1Q11,
 Vietnam                          2.11        19.32           78.55           including Alcoa, JP Morgan Chase and Google. Also, retail sales figures should
 Total                        2,513.92     6,688.18        4,068.75           show if rising oil prices have had an impact on consumer spending.
 Currency Markets            Current       Previous       %change         •   US stocks fell on Friday as a sharp rise in oil prices ignited worries that
 Bt/ US$*                       30.04         29.98           -0.20           inflation would derail the recovery. DJIA was down 29.44 points (-0.24%) at
 US$/ Euro                       1.44          1.45           -0.26           12,380.05. S&P500 dropped by 5.34 points (-0.40%) to 1,328.17. Nasdaq fell
 Yen/ US$                       84.83         84.76           -0.08           15.72 points (-0.56%) to 2,780.42.
 Yuan/ US$                       6.54          6.54            0.10       •   The prospect of a US government shutdown due to the budget disputes is
 Commodity Price             Current           Prev       %change             temporarily solved after the Congress resolved to allow the government to
 Crude Oil                     112.85        112.79            0.05           breach the debt ceiling through short-term borrowings under the
 GOLD                        1,476.50      1,474.10            0.16           Parliamentary approvals.
 BDI                         1,376.00      1,401.00           -1.78       Japan:
                                                                          •   The Nikkei average is likely to move sideways today on a surge in oil prices,
 ZINC                        2,534.00      2,452.00            3.34
                                                                              but buying in reconstruction-related stocks for the rebuilding Japan should
 CRB index                     368.70        364.48            1.16
                                                                              lend support.
Source: Bloomberg     *onshore rate                                       •   Core machinery orders rose 7.6% YoY but fell 2.3% MoM in February and
                                                                              are expected to deteriorate sharply in coming months as the March 11
                                                                              earthquake and tsunami and a subsequent nuclear crisis disrupted supply
                                                                              chains and production.
 This report has been prepared by Finansia Syrus Securities Public        •   The Japanese government is expected to outline details of its first extra
 Company Limited (FSS). The information herein has been obtained              budget for disaster relief today with ruling Democratic Party lawmakers
 from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however FSS               suggesting the size for the first spending package should be around ¥4tn
 makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of               (US$47bn).
 such information. Information and opinions expressed herein are          •   The BOJ last week kept monetary policy unchanged and would launch an
 subject to change without notice. FSS has no intention to solicit            ultra-cheap loan scheme for banks in the area devastated by the quake and
 investors to buy or sell any security in this report. In addition, FSS       tsunami, while cutting its view on the economy, saying it would remain under
 does not guarantee returns nor price of the securities described in
                                                                              "strong downward pressure" for some time.
 the report nor accept any liability for any loss or damage of any
                                                                          •   Sharp Corp (6753.T) has suspended work at two domestic LCD panel
 kind arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this
 report. Investors should study this report carefully in making               factories, citing an inability to secure a stable supply of industrial gas in the
 investment decisions. All rights are reserved. This report may not           aftermath of the March 11 earthquake in Japan.
 be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any             •   NTT DoCoMo (9437.T) will release late this month a mobile phone that can
 manner for any purpose without permission of FSS. Investment in              have its SIM lock removed, allowing the handset to be used with other
 securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully            carriers' networks.
 before making investment decisions                                       •   IHI Corp (7013.T) is seeking to commercialize as early as fiscal 2015 a marine
                                                                              wind power station that costs half as much to install as existing models.

                                                                                                                        Contact person : Warut Siwasariyanon
                                                                                                                                   International Market Dept.
                                                                                                        April 11, 2011

                             Hong Kong/China:
                             •   China posts trade deficit in sign of rebalancing China recorded a rare trade deficit in
                                 1Q11 on the back of domestic economic strength and rising commodity prices. In 1Q11,
                                 China imported US$1.02bn more than it exported. In March, China registered a trade
                                 surplus of US$140mn, following a US$7.3bn deficit in February. China's exports were up
                                 35.8% in March YoY, while imports rose 27.3%.
                             •   The MAS is expected to tighten its monetary policy further during its policy meeting on
                                 Thursday, resulting in further appreciation of the Singapore dollar.
                             •   AusGroup, which provides services to resources companies, is exploring a secondary
                                 listing on the Australian Securities Exchange.
                             •   Mapletree Logistics Trust plans to sell its two properties in Singapore for a total of
                                 S$27.5mn (US$21.9mn).
                             •   Jasper Investments’s subsidiary Jasper Drilling signed a letter of intent with AGR Peak
                                 Well Management whereby Jasper will drill one well for AGR with an option for another
                                 in West Africa. The firm portion of the contract is worth around US$15mn.
                             •   Aztech Group, an electronics and marine logistics company, will record a loss for 1Q11
                                 compared with a profit a year earlier, mainly due to the impairment of vessels owned by
                                 the firm.

                             STOCK/SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS

                             Singapore (OCBC’s reports)
                             CapitaLand Limited (CAPL – BUY, TP S$4.10): Visits to Chinese showrooms by Eli Lee (65)
                             6531 9800
                             Last week, we visited two CapitaLand (CAPL) residential projects in China - the showrooms at
                             the Paragon (Shanghai) and the Beaufort (Beijing). We believe 116 units at the Paragon (T1-2)
                             would be launched in May 11 at RMB100–150k per sqm, in line with prices around the area. At
                             the Beaufort, 220 units (T2) were launched in Dec 10 and there are only 30-40 unsold units
                             left at RMB 40-43k per sqm. Our visits confirm the picture of slowing volume but stable prices
                             in these two cities. Given CAPL’s current share price, we reiterate our view that Chinese
                             residential worries on CAPL are likely overwrought. First, Chinese residential exposure only
                             takes up around 12% of CAPL’s total book assets (FYE10, ex. cash). In addition, we believe
                             major projects, such as the Paragon, are well thought-out and likely resilient in a weak
                             market. We update our assumptions and maintain BUY at a revised fair value of $4.10 (at
                             parity to RNAV).

                             Micro-Mechanics (MMH – BUY, TP S$0.67): Encouraging industry data but risks remain by
                             Wong Teck Ching Andy (65) 6531 9800
                             We believe that Micro-Mechanics’ (MMH) upcoming 3QFY11 results should be supported by the
                             still encouraging global semiconductor industry performance. This is because demand for its
                             products is strongly correlated with chip production. However, the massive 9.0-magnitude
                             earthquake and tsunami and subsequent aftershocks that struck Japan could potentially have
                             an adverse impact on MMH in the future as Japan made up ~4.8% of MMH’s revenue as at
                             1HFY11. For now, MMH updated us that it had not experienced any cancellation or slowdown
                             in orders. Word from its customers is that business is as usual although the actual fallout from
                             this catastrophe can only be ascertained at a later date. We continue to like MMH for its
                             experienced management team as well as its healthy balance sheet (zero gearing). We are
                             keeping our estimates for now but will be obtaining updates from management along the way
                             on any possible impact on MMH’s 4QFY11 results. Maintain BUY and fair value estimate of
                             S$0.67 (based on 12x blended FY11/FY12F EPS). Key risks include liquidity risk and worse-
                             than-expected developments coming out of this Japan calamity.

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