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									Information Society –
  Future Prospects
         Ross Anderson
    Cambridge University and
 Foundation for Information Policy
            Research
      What Sort of Revolution?
   The predictable effects of a new technology are
    swamped by unpredicted side-effects
   Railways were built to allow people to get from
    London to Manchester in a day, not a week
   Medium term they also allowed cities to grow
    much bigger; they spread suburbs; and moved
    armies
   Cars also had huge direct effects
   The printing press, and the telegraph, had more
    subtle effects (and side effects)
            Benefits of Computers
   It’s all about computation – that is, software
   ‘You can have software without the Internet, but
    you can’t have the Internet without software’
    (Karen Spärck-Jones)
   What’s the computation for? It’s not content
    that’s driven the Internet but email, chat, etc –
    whether for leisure or remote working
   That is – the main application is other people:
    how can software enhance people?
   The next wave – the Internet of things: how can
    software enhance things?
        New Uses of Software
   Computer game vendors started using
    authentication in game cartridges to
    subsidise consoles from software sales
   Xerox started using authentication in ink
    cartridges to tie them to the printer
   Followed by HP, Lexmark … Lexmark’s
    case against SCC, EU recycling directive
   Accessory control now spreading to phone
    batteries, car parts, …
    Unforeseen Consequences!
   The music majors campaigned hard for DRM
    from 1995-2005
   But what happens when you link a concentrated
    industry (platforms) with a less concentrated
    industry (music)?
   Varian’s analysis (January 2005) – most of the
    resulting surplus goes to the platform owner
   By July 2005, the music industry was busy
    complaining about Apple!
   By September 2005, power was clearly shifting
    from the music majors to the independents
      The Information Society
   More and more goods contain software
   So more and more industries are starting
    to become like the software industry. We’ll
    have the good, the bad and the ugly!
   The good: flexibility, rapid response
   The bad: frustration, poor service
   The ugly: monopolies
   How will the law evolve to cope?
                 Property
   The enlightenment idea - that the core
    mission of government wasn’t defending
    faith, but defending property rights
   18th-19th century: rapid evolution of
    property and contract law
   Realization that these are not absolute!
   Abolition of slavery, laws on compulsory
    purchase, railway regulation, labour
    contracts, tenancy contracts, …
           Intellectual Property
   Huge expansion as software etc have become more
    important - 7+ Euro directives since 1991
   As with `ordinary’ property and contract in about 1850,
    we’re hitting serious conflicts
   Competition law - legal protection of DRM mechanisms
    leads to enforcement of illegal contracts
   Environmental law - cartridge recycling mandated, after
    printer vendors use software to stop it
   Privacy law – must respond to DRM, data mining
   Trade law – governments will fight companies over price
    discrimination, bundling, single market issues…
         Concluding Remarks
   We’re moving towards pervasive computing –
    software in everything that costs over $10 and
    that you don’t eat or drink
   This will challenge existing social and policy
    assumptions on many levels – including our
    laws on privacy, competition, trade, employment
    and the environment
   Economics and Security Resource Page –
    www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/econsec.html
    Foundation for Information Policy Research –
    www.fipr.org

								
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