# Making Predictions Based On Theoretical Probability

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```					Making Predictions Based On
Theoretical Probability

We are learning to…find theoretical
probability and then make a prediction based
on the probability.

Sunday, April 28, 2013
¼        ¼
What is the theoretical                           Yellow    Blue
probability of spinning a yellow?                     ½       ½
Red
Green    Blue ¼
¼
The probability of spinning a yellow is
¼…because ¼ of the spinner is yellow.

If you would spin the spinner 100 times how many times would
you expect to get yellow?

Probability of spinning 1
Number of times spinning yellow       1 25
yellow is…                                                   So…
4       Total number of times spinning        4 25
25    If you spin the spinner 100 times you
       would expect to have the result of yellow
25 times.
100
¼        ¼
What is the theoretical                         Yellow    Blue
probability of spinning a red                     ½         ½
Red
1/
8
Green    Blue ¼
The probability of spinning a red is                        ¼        1/
1/ …because 1/ of the spinner is red.                                  8
8              8

If you would spin the spinner 1000 times how many times would
you expect to get red?

Probability of spinning 1
Number of times spinning red         1 125
red is…                                               So…
8   Total number of times spinning       8 125
125    If you spin the spinner 1000 times you
        would expect to have the result of red 125
times.
1000
1/
¼        ¼8
What is the theoretical                          Yellow     Blue
1/
probability of spinning a blue                                     8

Red
1/
Green                  8
1 1 2 1 3                                                    Blue
                                             ¼           1/
4 8 8 8 8                                                       8

The probability of spinning a blue is
3/ …because 3/ of the spinner is blue.
8              8

If you would spin the spinner 800 times how many times would
you expect to get blue?

Probability of spinning 3
Number of times spinning blue         3 100
blue is…                                                So…
8   Total number of times spinning        8 100
300     If you spin the spinner 800 times you
       would expect to have the result of blue 300
times.
800
Group Practice
   In an experiment Yolanda is rolling a number cube and
spinning a spinner with the number 2, 5, 8, and 11. She
then finds the sum of the two results.
2   5

8   11

Step 1: With your group create a Tree Diagram or Area Model that could be
used to find all the possible outcomes of this experiment.
Step 2: Then with your group find the Theoretical Probability of several
different events and predict the number of outcomes for that event.