State Economic _amp; Revenue Outlook Apr 2009

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State Economic _amp; Revenue Outlook Apr 2009 Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                    Government
Percent change, $2005 SA                                             Spending

                                                                     Residential
                                                                    Construction

                                                                    Equipment and
                                                                       Software

                                                                    Investment


                                                                    Consumption


                           -40%   -30%    -20%    -10%     0%   10%



                              Prior post WWII recessions        This recession
USD 3m LIBOR - 3m US T-bill Spread
Basis Points
500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

 50

  0
  Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09
Net Tightening minus Easing
Percent
100

80

60

40

20

 0

-20

-40
      2000          2002           2004    2006           2008
             For large and medium firms   For small businesses
             Credit cards                 Other consumer loans
USD, billions

200

180

160

140

120

100

 80

 60

 40

 20

   0
    Jan-08      Apr-08   Jul-08   Oct-08   Jan-09   Apr-09   Jul-09
                            Case Shiller 20-City Composite House Price Index, SA


                 240                                                               20



                 180                                                               10
Jan 2000 = 100




                                                                                         Percent (Y/Y)
                 120                                                               0



                 60                                                                -10



                  0                                                                -20
                       01      02     03     04    05     06    07     08     09

                                           Index               Y/Y
                             Case Shiller Seattle House Price Index, SA


                 240                                                           20



                 180                                                           10
Jan 2000 = 100




                                                                                     Percent (Y/Y)
                 120                                                           0



                 60                                                            -10



                  0                                                            -20
                       01   02   03     04     05     06     07    08     09

                                      Index                Y/Y
             Percent growth, SAAR

                  6

                  4

                  2
Real GDP, 2005$




                  0

                  -2

                  -4

                  -6

                  -8
                       2006         2007   2008   2009
                       Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing
                                            Index

                  80

                  70
Diffusion Index




                  60

                  50


                  40

                  30

                  20
                   2000        2002      2004       2006       2008

                            New Orders             ISM Manufacturing
                  Institute of Supply Management Non-Manufacturing
                                         Index

                  80

                  70
Diffusion Index




                  60

                  50


                  40

                  30

                  20
                   2000     2002       2004      2006        2008

                          Employment             Business Activity
Thousands, SA, 3MMA

2,500


2,000



1,500


1,000



 500


   0
   2000         2002            2004   2006       2008

                      Single Family       Total
       Construction Put In Place, Private Non-Residential
                        $ millions SAAR
 Y/Y, 3MMA

40%

30%

20%

10%

 0%

-10%

-20%
    1990     1993   1996     1999    2002     2005    2008
                       Washington State
   Contracts for New, Addition and Major Alteration Projects
                                 (Cummulative YTD)

Percent, Y/Y
  0




-20




-40




-60
      Total Non-    Office and    Manufacturing Schools and    Public     Apartment
      Residential      Bank          Plants       Colleges    Buildings    Buildings
                    Buildings
                     Ratio of Non-Performing to Total Assets

          8


          6
Percent




          4


          2


          0
              2007                     2008                    2009
                United States, national charter      WA, state charter
Percent Change, year ago
 80


60


40


20


 0


-20


-40
   1998    1999     2001   2002    2004     2005     2007     2008
            Total          Total excluding Transportation Equipment
                      25                                                        30




                                                                                      WA New Vehicle Registrations,
                      20                                                        24




                                                                                         Thousands, 3 MMA, SA
Million Units, SAAR




                      15                                                        18


                      10                                                        12


                      5                                                         6


                      0                                                         0
                      1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008


                           US Light Trucks   US Cars   WA New Vehicle Registrations
 Thousands, SA, 3MMA

50



40



30



20



10



0
1990          1994              1998     2002     2006

                       Single          Multiple
Percent change, year ago

  8

  6

  4

  2

  0

 -2

 -4

 -6
      80   82   84   86   88    90   92   94   96   98   00   02     04   06   08   10

                               Washington                     U.S.
Percent change, year ago

 15


 12


  9


  6


  3


  0


 -3
      80   83    86        89   92       95   98   01          04   07   10

                            Washington                  U.S.
 3 MMA, Y/Y percent


8%


6%


4%


2%


0%


-2%


-4%
      90   92    94     96    98   00      02    04     06       08

                Real Consumption        Real Disposable Income
Index
Mich: 1966Q1 = 100, SA
Conf Board: 1985 =100, SA
150




125




100




 75




 50




 25
      80   82   84   86   88   90   92   94   96     98   00    02   04   06   08

                     U Mich                        Conf Board
                                                                  Growth in Net Revenue Act Collections* Minus Growth in State
Y-O-Y Growth in RevAct minus Personal Income Growth                                    Personal Income

                                                      10%



                                                       5%



                                                       0%



                                                      -5%



                                                      -10%



                                                      -15%
                                                             87           91          95          99          03         07      11
USD billions

16.0


15.5


15.0


14.5


14.0


13.5


13.0
        FY 2007   FY 2008   FY 2009   FY 2010   FY 2011

				
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