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					CAS AREP

COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERC SCIENCES (CAS) ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH AND ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME (AREP)
Report on Activities of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) and Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP) in Support of the WMO DPM Programme

Dr. Michel Béland, President of CAS Dr. Len Barrie, Director, AREP Dr. Slobodan Nickovic, Scientific Officer, ARREP

WMO DPM Programme Coordination Meeting, 4-6 December, Geneva

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CAS Mandate
Support of research in atmospheric science to:
 Reduce and mitigate natural disasters,
 Protect the environment,  Enhance understanding and response to environmental change

through the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) and World Weather Research Programme (WWRP-THORPEX)

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CAS COMPONENTS: 2006-2010
CAS President
CAS Vice-President

Management Group
Chair OPAG-EPAC Environ. Pollution & Atmos. Chemistry Joint Scientific Steering Committee (GAW Strategic Plan 2001-2007) Greenhouse Gases Aerosols

WGNE CAS-JSC/WCRP

Chair OPAG-WWRP World Weather Research Programme Joint Scientific Committee

Thorpex

Mesoscale Forecasting & Nowcasting

Ozone Depletion

UV

Tropical Meteorology

Forecast Verification

Precip. Chemistry

Reactive Gases

Weather Modification

Social & Economic Impacts of Forecasts

GURME

GAW Data Management

WMO/IUGG Assessment Aerosol-Precipitation

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CAS: WWRP-THORPEX
 Goals – to improve forecasting of

• High-impact weather (tropical storms, monsoons)
• Clouds and precipitation • Chemical Weather • Sand and dust storms

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

Deliverables • Warning on extreme-weather related hazards • Improvement of forecast skill • Designing strategy for interactive forecasting and observation

• Data assimilation for satellite and in situ data
• Testing the effectiveness of a global ensemble forecasting system    Status • Early implementation stage; timeline: 2005-2014 Responsible • OPAG-WWRP Crosscutting cooperation • CBS, CIMO, CCI, All RA’s

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Global Interactive Forecast System based on THORPEX INTERACTIVE GLOBAL GRAND ENSEMBLE (TIGGE)
Ensembles of global forecasts conducted by three Centres (CMA, ECMWF & NCAR) Distributed archives providing regional products

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WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning System
  WWRP/GAW Sand and Dust Storm (SDS) Project was established in September 2004 The Development of a Regional Sand and Dust Storm Early Warning System in East Asia was presented at the Third International Early Warning Conference, Bonn, Germany, 27-29 March 2006 A new proposal on WMO Sand and Dust Storm (SDS) Warning System extending the scope to two other regions has been accepted at the Scientific Steering Committee meeting for SDS Project (November 2006 Shanghai, China)



PROJECT OBJECTIVE: To establish a WMO-coordinated global network of SDS forecasting centers delivering products useful to a wide range of users for reducing the impacts of SDS

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A WMO survey in 2006: more than 40 Member States expressed interest to participate in SDS project

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

Deliverables • Designated three Regional WMO SDS Warning System (SDSWS) Centres: – Spain (for the Europe/Africa/Middle East region) – China (for the Eastern Asia region) – Canada (for the Southern America region) • Research operational SDS forecasts provided by eight organizations within the above three regions • Establishing a WMO SDSWS portal to support the above activities • Established an expert group for SDSWS implementation • Proposed an Secretariat-based group in support of SDSWS activities and cross-cutting issues • WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System” to be organized in Barcelona, Spain in November 2007;

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

Status

• Implementation; Timeline: 2006-2015




Responsible
• OPAG-WWRP, OPAG-EPAC Crosscutting aspects • All affected regions: RA I, II, IV, V, VI,

• NHMSs (Spain, Japan, China, Korea, Canada);
• Academia: U of Arizona, Barcelona • Users, modellers, observation community ACADEMIA
Developments

WHO
Health Data exchange

Agriculture

CAS
Aviation

CAgM

CBS

CAeM
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13 April 2002

WMO DPM Programme Coordination Meeting, 4-6 December, Geneva

Napoli Raman Lidar

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Dust impacts health

Valley Fever endemic regions WMO DPM Programme Coordination Meeting, 4-6 December, Geneva
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CAS: Tropical Meteorology Research - Monsoon variability,

tropical cyclone forecasting, tropical limited area modeling
 Deliverables • Improved accuracy of high impact weather forecasts • Training workshops on monsoon, tropical cyclone and application based on NWP    Status • Implementation; Timeline: 2007-2011 Responsible • OPAG-WWRP Crosscutting cooperation • WCRP, All RA I, II, IV, V, ICSU

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CAS: GAW Programme
 Deliverables

• Improving environmental security by implementing of the Integrated Global Atmospheric Composition Observation (IGACO) strategy

• Scientific assessments in support of environmental policy
• Coordinating global measurements of atmospheric chemical variables • Routine monitoring of air pollution and sand/dust storms   Responsible • OPAG-EPAC Status • Ongoing programme, Timeline: 2007-2016



Crosscutting cooperation
• IGACO, NHMSs

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Ozone and Aerosols - Essential Multi-Hazard Climate and Weather Variables
Loss in Life Expectancy by Man-made PM2.5 Pollution

Tropospheric Ozone Heating the Arctic
Beijing Roof CMA March 20 2002

2000

1880
Months

1990

December - May average temperature anomaly

Source IIASA

DUST

POLLUTION

FIRES
OZONE HOLE & UV

Global Aerosol Optical Depth

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AREP: Development of an Advanced Tropical Cyclone Early

Warning System for the Philippines
 Deliverables • Education and training of local personnel on NWP, interpretation of RS observations, risk management

• Acquisition of advanced equipment and software
• Transfer of technology to other countries in the region (in the second phase after 2009)    Status • Work Plan development stage; Timeline: 2007-2011 Responsible • OPAG-WWRP Crosscutting cooperation • CBS, RA V and II, NHMS of Philippines, Australia, Japan, USA, Japan MRI, US NCAR, US National Hurricane Center

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AREP (THORPEX): Health and Climate Partnership for Africa  Deliverables • Reviewing social impacts of timely warnings of epidemics • Education and training both meteorological and medical community

• Improved understanding of relationship between environmental conditions and health outcomes
• Downscaling of seasonal forecasts to a particular regions interest    Status

• Work Plan development; Timeline: 2007-2011
Responsible • OPAG-WWRP Crosscutting cooperation

• WCP, WCRP, RAF;
• WHO, CERMES, ACMAD, AGRHYMET, ECMWF, NOAA, U of Liverpool, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, US EPA
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AREP: Weather Modification Activities  Deliverables • WM research projects in different member States for precipitation enhancement and hail suppression  Status • Ongoing activities in Member States  Responsible • OPAG-WWRP  Crosscutting cooperation • No

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Backup slides

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