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					     The impact of science in developing
    countries and Asia (esp. China) on the
       further globalisation of related
              information flows
Presented by:   Paul Evans
                Snr Vice President
                International Publishing Development
                Elsevier
Overview

 • 1. the general situation – volume
   of content; growth trends
 • 2. activity in fast growing countries:
   India/Russia/China
 • 3. activity in developing countries:
   Hinari/Agora/engineering??
 • 4. Learning and looking forward – the
   economics of quality growth
A growth forecast                       THOUGHT STARTER




         Source: Financial Times 2005
Map of the world: by population   THOUGHT STARTER




  Populations over 10 million
World economy moving to a ‘flat world’


“Flat world” assumes convergence                                           THOUGHT STARTER

in per capita contribution to GDP
                                         50%


                                         40%
                                                             China

                                         30%                                Western Europe

                                         20%
                                                                       United States
                                         10%


                                         0%
                                           1500       1600      1700      1800       1900      2000


  Source: Cof ace                        Source: The World Economy: A Millennial perspective, 2001, OECD
Article Growth 1981 – 2004



                Growing at ~ 3% pa
Global Trends in Research Output
                                    40



                                    35



                                    30
                                                                            CHINA
                                                                            GERMANY
      Country's Article Share (%)




                                    25                                      JAPAN
                                                                            UK
                                                                            USA
                                    20
                                                                            CANADA
                                                                            FRANCE
                                    15                                      ITALY
                                                                            SOUTH KOREA
                                                                            SPAIN
                                    10



                                    5



                                    0
                                         2001   2002   2003   2004   2005
                                                       Year
Overall quality is increasing – this is key
Overview

 • 1. the general situation – volume of
   content; growth trends
 • 2. activity in fast growing
   countries: India/Russia/China
 • 3. activity in developing countries:
   Hinari/Agora/engineering??
 • 4. Learning and looking forward – the
   economics of quality growth
India – paper share versus world average of
24.4% or so for Elsevier. Citation share higher.
                              Predicted Growth in Russia articles
                               (Exponential and Linear Growth)
                          Growth Based on Articles in Russia 2000-2005
           27000




           26000                 Linear Growth
                                 Exponential Growth


           25000
                                                                Growth Rate -7.5%
Articles




           24000




           23000




           22000




           21000
                   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006p 2007p 2008p 2009p 2010p

  Source TS Data                                      Year
China: two approaches

 • Work to get highest quality papers for
   existing journals from China (which
   may be number 2 scientific nation by
   2010)
 • Work with local publishers to help
   China’s best journals gain visibility on
   the world stage
       Situation: China quality lags, but likely to improve
Chinese research output is rising fast               … but average quality lags         … making it time-consuming, costly
  - 11% CAGR * …                                       - IF 0.63 in 2005                to pick out top quality contributors.
                                                           (world average = 1.0)
                                                                                         Chemical Physics Letters’ 2002 profile with 2 year
                                                                                         window
                                                                                         - Overall impact factor = 2.438
                                                                                         - Ave. # of citations to Chinese papers = 4.09
                                                                                           (higher than for Germany, France, Spain,
                                                                                            UK and also Japan)

                                                                                         Similar analysis for the main competitors for this journal,
                                                                                         all big US and UK society journals, showed the same
                                                                                         result: papers from China high quality.


PhD and Masters’ students                       Widespread academic corruption            Some bright spots for quality are
required to publish for diplomas;               (fake research, plagiarism)               emerging, e.g. Chemistry
Rapid growth in student population              acknowledged at top levels of S&T         (Mathematics, Materials Sciences
                                                establishment ; policies to combat it
(99-03 YOY = 26.28% ) boosts                                                              are also considered as strong
                                                ineffective so far – China’s world-
paper-producing demographic. #                  class authors seek publication in         disciplines in China)
                                                world-class journals

                  China has made “innovative research” a strategic national priority;
                           quality can be expected to improve over time.
 * China submissions to Elsevier journals mirrors overall trend.
 # Source: Chinese Academic Journals: Quality, Issues and Solutions, Jan 2006
Quality from China is rising (faster with some
than others).
What is the China Collection?

  • A partnership between Elsevier and
    Chinese publishers
  • Helping Chinese journals to find an
    international audience
  • Hosted on ScienceDirect (10 million users)
  • Only very good journals included
  • A range of different topics
  • Journals benefit from Elsevier’s
    experience by training and cooperation
Why do it?

 • China’s scientific output growing extremely
   fast
 • Different perspective interesting to an
   international audience
 • Both parties learn
 • Importance of local and international
   publishing
 • Elsevier wants to be preferred publishing
   partner for Chinese scientists
Free for all in 2006!
A true partnership

    Independence of the journals
    Journals have equal functionality to
    Elsevier titles
    Training on editing principles, brand
    building, publishing best practices, ...
    Chinese distribution stays with the journals
    Regular exchange of information with a
    dedicated international Elsevier publisher
Overview

 • 1. the general situation – volume of
   content; growth trends
 • 2. activity in fast growing countries:
   India/Russia/China
 • 3. activity in developing
   countries:
   Hinari/Agora/engineering??
 • 4. Learning and looking forward – the
   economics of quality growth
Health Internetwork Access to Research
Information=HINARI

  • World Health Organization (UN)
     – Improve overall health in third world through
       various initiatives including providing research
       to developing countries.
     – Sponsors HINARI and determines
       qualifications for participating countries
     – All system authorizations go through WHO -
       Geneva and HINARI computers
     – Uses PubMed as main navigation tool
     – Users are directed to publishers’ platforms
       from either HINARI interface or PubMed
Who is eligible for HINARI?

  • Currently only those countries that
    are in the lowest 2 levels of Gross
    National Product according to the
    World Bank.
  • HINARI web site maintains a list of
    eligible countries. All participating
    HINARI publishers follow these
    guidelines.
  • www.healthinternetwork.org
HINARI’s eligibility

  • Phase 1 countries are the poorest of
    all developing countries and pay
    nothing for access to the HINARI
    journals.
  • Phase 2 countries are in the second
    lowest tier and pay $1,000 per year
    per institution. This money goes to a
    common fund to support training
    across all level. Publishers receive
    nothing from it.
What is HINARI? ( as of June 2006)

  •   Key Facts and Figures:
  •   Registered Institutions        2,170
  •   Countries                        106
  •   Journals                       2,826
  •   Participating Publishers          95
  •   Average number of
  •   Downloads per month (2005)   275,000

  •   ELSEVIER CONTENT
  •   Number of Journals               950
  •   Average number of
  •   Downloads per month (2005)     91,000
Elsevier’s Role

  • Currently provide 800+ journal titles;
    we are the largest supplier
  • Maintain a seat on the HINARI board
    of participating publishers (Elsevier
    was one of the founding partners.)
  • Advise and work with WHO-HINARI
    on various task forces: Technology,
    Usage, and Evaluation.
  • Provide updated journal information
    to the HINARI Geneva site.
AGORA: Access to Global Online Research in Agriculture


   • Sponsored by UN’s Food and Agriculture
     Organization (FAO), the Rockerfeller Foundation
     and Cornell’s Mann Library
   • Mission: to provide developing countries
     with free access to vital research that will
     ultimately help increase crop yields and
     feed the population
   • Program is now very similar to HINARI
   • Eligibility determined by World Bank Categories
     (like HINARI)
   • Uses WHO-Geneva authentication software
   • Began in October, 2003
Update (June, 2006)

  •   Key Facts and Figures
  •   Participating Institutions      750
  •   Countries                        64
  •   Participating Publishers         35
  •   Journals Available                      892
  •   Elsevier Titles                 279
  •   Average Number of
  •   Downloads per month (2005)     15,000
  •   Average Number of
  •   Elsevier Downloads/mo (2005)          7,900
Future of these Programs

  • HINARI has been extended to 2015 based
    on a review of how successful it is proving.
  • Elsevier has provided help with
    interpreting usage statistics as Key
    Performance Indicators.
  • AGORA will soon include TEEAL clients as
    part of the program.
  • Both programs continue to train librarians
  • Usage is growing!
  • Improved telecommunications can only
    create more success for HINARI and
    AGORA
Engineering..?

  • Could a new collection be provided
    for the poorest countries, say, in
    engineering? We would need a
    neutral partner to help run and
    coordinate this for such countries
    fairly but this could add to our moral
    contribution to world development in
    a way that could help further develop
    those economies…
Overview

 • 1. the general situation – volume of
   content; growth trends
 • 2. activity in developing countries:
   India/Russia/China
 • 3. activity in developing countries:
   Hinari/Agora/engineering??
 • 4. Learning and looking forward –
   the economics of quality growth
Why emerging countries matter to us?
  •   Future source of quality science… No-one will welcome a flood
      of poor quality papers but many will be willing to help countries
      develop their visibility while they build their infrastructure and
      science capability. In time quality levels will meet world average
      criteria. In some cases it already has.
  •   Early positioning by international publishers in countries likely to
      advance science to world quality leading levels is vital. Countries
      seek a track record of partnership in assisting developments.
  •   Giving assistance. In some countries we can help local
      publishers and local authors to gain prominence as these countries
      develop by using our electronic platform for their journals to be
      more easily available worldwide. The choice to subscribe or not
      remains with customers.
  •   Revenue possibilities over the long term to help support our
      cost base and investments. At the moment however there is a
      moral and pragmatic obligation for resources from developed
      economies (including commercial publishers) to assist this
      progression and help the world economy develop overall.
Challenges

  • Helping quality improve. Editorial involvement of
    top scientists from these countries within our
    global networks and journal communities.
  • Maintain shift of core content to new countries so
    that existing customers can benefit overall from
    existing contracts while new options for local
    journals are tested and made available
  • Language polishing
  • Government push policies flooding the system
    e.g. with papers from PhD students in China
  • Editorial support from our staff locally
  • Prejudice against newcomers

				
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