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Wild Blue Yonder - Turrentine Brokerage.com by jianglifang

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									Wild Blue Yonder
Short-term
 Trends
Short-Term Trends
 Economy bad
 Restaurant / wine club
   troubles
 Consumers trading down
 Excise tax threat
 Liquidity challenges
Long-Term Trends
 Recovery
 Millennials
 Global & local supply
  constraints
Long-term
Supply
Constraints
Global Survey
                              Surface area of vineyards worldwide
                            Areas planted in vines of the 12 leading countries

                                         Forecast 2007
                     1169
              1200
                       867                                         Prev.2007 / 2005
              1000
                                                                       decreasing
                             800
              800
    1000 ha




                                                                       stable
                                                                       increasing
              600                525 500
                                           409
              400                                338
                                                       248 231
                                                               205 197 174
              200
                0
                    SA




                                                     ia

                                             us e
                                                    ia
               Fr in


               Tu ly




                                              rt n
                     na




                                              en l
                                             om a
                    ce


                    ey




                                            rg a




                                            A hil
                                            Po Ira


                                            R ti n
                  Ita




                                                an



                                                  al
                                           A ug
                    a
                 an




                  hi
                 rk



                  U
                Sp




                                               tr
                                               C
                C




6                                                                     Source: OIV
South   America
South   America
South America - Production

 Chile 2009 20+% increase
   projected
  Argentina 2009 slight
   decrease projected
South America - Sales

 Strong international sales
 Value brands
 Mostly off-premise
South America – Bulk Wine

  Competitive Cabernet
    Sauvignon, Merlot,
    Syrah, Malbec,
    Chardonnay & Torrontes
   But quantities limited
Europe
Europe
Europe - Production

 Languedoc, average crop
 Italy, average crop
 Spain short in North; big
  in South
 Little new planting; some
  upgrading
 Europe - Sales

Domestic consumption
 continues long-term
 decline
Export sales growth slow
  Europe - Bulk

Reasonable demand for
 high quality wines
 Market frozen for
 standard quality wines
Australia
Australia - Austwine
 Australia Excess

Chardonnay
Shiraz
Cabernet Sauvignon
Merlot
Australia Excess

Yield surprises
Currency fluctuations
Companies in transition
   Australian Acres
                       Non-bearing
Year   Bearing Acres                 % Non-bearing
                           Acres
1999      235,393        68,207         22.50%
2000      273,239        72,218         21.00%
2001      322,560        43,635         12.00%
2002      354,131        37,598         9.50%
2003      352,699        36,309         9.25%
2004      371,886        33,636         8.25%
2005      378,414        33,251         8.00%
2006      390,672        26,241         6.25%
2007      404,959        24,268         5.50%
2008      410,507        16,003         3.75%
Australian Bearing Acres
                         Non-bearing
  Year   Bearing Acres                 % Non-bearing
                             Acres
  1999      235,393        68,207         22.50%
  2000      273,239        72,218         21.00%
  2001      322,560        43,635         12.00%
  2002      354,131        37,598         9.50%
  2003      352,699        36,309         9.25%
  2004      371,886        33,636         8.25%
  2005      378,414        33,251         8.00%
  2006      390,672        26,241         6.25%
  2007      404,959        24,268         5.50%
  2008      410,507        16,003         3.75%
         California Bulk by Vintage
         5-Year Gallons Available
                    2008                   2 5 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
                    2007             -
                                    1 yr A g o
                    2006
                    2005
                    2004
                    2003
                                           2 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
                    2002
                    2001
                    2000



                                            5
                                           1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0




                                            0
                                           1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0




                                            5 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0




                                                       -
 / 6/
1 1 04      / 6/
           1 1 05           / 6/
                           1 1 06        1 1 07
                                          / 6/                  / 6/
                                                               1 1 08    / 6/
                                                                        1 1 09
          California Bulk by Region
          5-Year Gallons Available
                                           2 5 , 0 0 0 ,0 0 0
                               -
                              1 yr A go
          Calif o rnia

          Cent ral Co ast
          No rt h Co ast

          So no ma                         2 0 , 0 0 0 ,0 0 0
          Nap a




                                            5
                                           1 , 0 0 0 ,0 0 0




                                            0
                                           1 , 0 0 0 ,0 0 0




                                             5 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0




                                                       -
 /1
1 6/ 04       / 6/05
              11             /1
                            1 6/ 06       1 1 07
                                           / 6/                  / 6/
                                                                1 1 08    / 6/
                                                                         1 1 09
    California Chardonnay
 5-Year Bulk Gallons Available
                                          6,000,000

           Calif o rnia                1- yr A go
           Cent ral Co ast
           No rt h Co ast
           So no ma
                                          5,000,000
           Nap a



                                          4,000,000




                                          3,000,000




                                          2,000,000




                                          1,000,000




                                                    -
 / 6/
1 1 04    / 6/
         1 1 05               /1
                             1 6/ 06   1 1 07
                                        / 6/             / 6/
                                                        1 1 08    /1
                                                                 1 6/ 09
         Chardonnay - Global Supply
                                               Estimated USD/Gallon
Country/Area    Region       Supply/Demand     in California duty paid
                               Moderate /
  California     Warm          Moderate             $4.20 - $6.10
                               Moderate /
                  Cool         Moderate            $6.80 - $12.10
   France         d'Oc       Weak / Moderate        $7.60 - $8.10
               Top Quality   Weak / Moderate      $18.00 - $27.90
                               Moderate /
    Italy        Veneto        Moderate             $5.40 - $6.20
   Spain                     Weak / Moderate        $6.70 - $8.70
  Australia      Warm         Strong / Weak         $3.00 - $4.50
                  Cool        Strong / Weak         $5.00 - $8.80
                               Moderate /
 Argentina       Warm          Moderate             $4.30 - $4.90
    Chile        Warm        Weak / Moderate        $4.70 - $5.40
                California Chardonnay
                      Tons Crushed
       800000

       700000

       600000

       500000
Tons




       400000

       300000

       200000

       100000

            0
             95

             96

             97

             98

             99

             00

             01

             02

             03

             04

             05

             06

             07

             08

             09

             10

             11

             12

             13
           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20
                               Years
California Cabernet Sauvignon
5-Year Bulk Gallons Available
                                       7,000,000
                                    1- y r A g o
         Calif o rnia
         Cent ral Co ast
         No rt h Co ast                6,000,000
         So no ma
         Nap a

                                       5,000,000



                                       4,000,000



                                       3,000,000



                                       2,000,000



                                        1,000,000



                                                   -
 /1
1 6/04    /1
         1 6/05             /1
                           1 6/06   1 6/07
                                     /1                 /1
                                                       1 6/08    /1
                                                                1 6/09
       Cabernet Sauv. - Global Supply
                                            Estimated USD/Gallon
Country/Area   Region   Supply/Demand       in California duty paid
  California   Warm      Weak / Strong           $5.00 - $6.50
                Cool    Moderate / Strong       $6.00 - $11.50
                           Moderate /
   France       d'Oc       Moderate              $5.40 - $6.46
                           Moderate /
    Italy      Veneto      Moderate              $4.80- $6.19
   Spain       Warm       Weak / Weak            $5.00 - $5.70
  Australia    Warm     Moderate / Weak          $4.00 - $5.01
                Cool     Strong / Weak           $6.00- $9.26
 Argentina     Warm       Weak / Weak            $3.70 - $4.29
    Chile      Warm     Strong / Moderate        $3.70 - $4.86
       California Cabernet Sauvignon
                Tons Crushed
       600000


       500000


       400000
Tons




       300000


       200000


       100000


            0
             95

             96

             97

             98

             99

             00

             01

             02

             03

             04

             05

             06

             07

             08

             09

             10

             11

             12

             13
           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20
                         Years
       California Merlot
 5-Year Bulk Gallons Available
                                                   7,000,000
               Calif o rnia         1- yr   A go

               Cent ral Co ast
               No rt h Co ast
               So no ma
                                                   6,000,000
               Nap a


                                                   5,000,000



                                                   4,000,000



                                                   3,000,000



                                                   2,000,000



                                                   1,000,000



                                                         -
 /1
1 6/ 04   / 6/05
          11               /1
                          1 6/ 06           11
                                            / 6/07              / 6/
                                                               1 1 08    / 6/
                                                                        1 1 09
               Merlot - Global Supply
                                                 Estimated USD/Gallon
Country/Area   Region    Supply/Demand           in California duty paid
                        Moderate /
California     Warm     Moderate          $3.80 - $5.50
                        Moderate /
               Cool     Moderate          $6.10 - $9.00
France         d'Oc     Moderate / Weak   $5.40 - $6.00
Italy          Veneto   Moderate / Weak   $4.30 - $5.60
Spain          Standard Weak / Weak       $6.20 - $6.20
Australia      Warm     Moderate / Weak   $4.00 - $5.00
               Cool     Strong / Weak     $5.80 - $8.30
                        Moderate /
Argentina      Warm     Moderate          $3.90 - $4.50
Chile          Warm     Weak / Moderate   $3.70 - $4.90
                California Merlot
                   Tons Crushed
       450000

       400000

       350000

       300000

       250000
Tons




       200000

       150000

       100000

       50000

            0
             95

             96

             97

             98

             99

             00

             01

             02

             03

             04

             05

             06

             07

             08

             09

             10

             11

             12

             13
           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20
                           Years
    California Pinot Noir
5-Year Bulk Gallons Available
                                        600,000
              Calif o rnia             -
                                      1 yr A go
              Cent ral Co ast
              No rt h Co ast
              So no ma                  500,000
              Nap a




                                        400,000




                                        300,000




                                        200,000




                                         100,000




                                             -
 /1
1 6/04    /1
         1 6/ 05           /1
                          1 6/ 06   1 1 07
                                     / 6/           / 6/
                                                   1 1 08    / 6/
                                                            1 1 09
            Pinot Noir - Global Supply

                                         Estimated USD/Gallon
Country/Area Region Supply/Demand        in California duty paid
 California    Warm     Weak / Strong        $7.00 - $10.25
               Cool    Weak / Moderate       $13.25 - $25.00
  France       d'Oc    Weak / Moderate       $9.00 - $10.25
    Italy      Pavia   Weak / Moderate       $9.00 - $10.25
  Australia    Warm    Weak / Moderate        $5.75 - $6.75
               Cool    Weak / Moderate       $7.50 - $10.75
   Chile       Warm     Weak / Strong        $10.75 - $13.50
                                    Tons




               0
                   50000
                           100000
                                           150000
                                                    200000
                                                             250000
        19
          95
        19
          96
        19
          97
        19
          98
        19
          99
        20
          00
        20
          01
        20
          02
        20
          03
        20
          04
        20
          05


Years
                                                                      Tons Crushed




        20
          06
        20
          07
        20
          08
        20
                                                                                     California Pinot Noir




          09
        20
          10
        20
          11
        20
          12
        20
          13
   California Pinot Grigio
5-Year Bulk Gallons Available
                                           250,000
                                    1- yr A g o



         Calif o rnia                      200,000
         Cent ral Co ast
         No rt h Co ast
         So no ma
         Nap a

                                            150,000




                                            100,000




                                              50,000




                                                  -
 /1
1 6/04      /1
           1 6/05           /1
                           1 6/06    1 6/07
                                      /1                /1
                                                       1 6/08    /1
                                                                1 6/09
        Pinot Grigio - Global Supply

                                         Estimated USD/Gallon
Country/Area Region    Supply/Demand      California duty paid
 California   Warm      Weak / Strong        $7.00 - $9.00
               Cool     Weak / Strong        $9.00 - $12.10
    Italy     Veneto   Weak / Moderate       $8.70 - $10.60
              Pavia    Weak / Moderate       $8.10- $10.60
                         Moderate /
  Australia   Warm       Moderate            $5.30 - $6.80
                         Moderate /
               Cool      Moderate            $7.50 - $10.80
                California Pinot Grigio
                      Tons Crushed
       200000

       180000

       160000

       140000

       120000
Tons




       100000

        80000

        60000

        40000

        20000

            0
             95

             96

             97

             98

             99

             00

             01

             02

             03

             04

             05

             06

             07

             08

             09

             10

             11

             12

             13
           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20

           20
                               Years
This presentation plus more
       global data at:
Turrentinebrokerage.com

								
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