SHANGHAI CONFERENCE JULY 2005
Qiyu Tu Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences The future economic profile of Shanghai
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SHANGHAI’s Economic Future in an Urban Age
Qiyu TU 屠启宇 Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
SHANGHAI PAST
• If one is interested in commerce and industry, he will regard it as a wonderful example of what the energy and enterprise of people of the West have been able to accomplish in developing a modern city on the fringe of a country renowned in the past for its conservative civilisation. If one takes thought of future world movements, he will view Shanghai as an entering wedge into the immovable East, or, to change the figure, as one of the goads that has pricked China and led to the genesis of a national consciousness. Hawks Pott President of Saint John's University
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Shanghai is a must-go place if you want to make money, make big money. Shanghai is a place full of opportunities as well as a place where opportunities may swallow you. Shanghai is a lovely place, but you can easily get hurt by her love.
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Moving to Shanghai
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The Shanghainese are quick to adopt foreign and new ideas. The city has an accommodating character.
How to settle down in Shanghai
SHANGHAI China's World City
Socialist International Metropolis with Chinese Characteristics International Manufacturing Centre International Financial Centre International Trade Centre International Transportation Centre China No. 7 Now
No. 5 by 2010 No. 3 by 2020 No. 2 by 2050
Report: SHANGHAI No. 31
50 Most Connected Cities
by B. Derudder* and P.J. Taylor, 2004
Top 10 London (GNC1) New York, Hong Kong (GNC0.707), Paris, Tokyo, Singapore (GNC0.645), Chicago, Milan, Los Angeles, Toronto Even other neighbours are ahead… Taipei, Mumbai, Jakarta, Karla Lumpur, Bangkok
SHANGHAI The Speed & The Size
Economic Forecasts • Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2010 10% (8% China) 2010-2020 7% (6% China) 2020-2050 3% (4% China) • GDP 5 times bigger by 2020 (equal to New York’s in 1997) 12 times bigger by 2050 (equal to China’s in 2000)
Made in China vs. Made in Shanghai Made in China
Bottom Price Imitation
Made in Shanghai
A symbol of quality and fashion. The most productive and advanced manufacturing sector in the PRC. A renewed ambition to enter the high value-added league.
Made in Shanghai The Bases for Advanced Manufacturing: Microelectronics; Ship Building; Automobiles; Steel; Petro-chemicals; Equipment Processing
The Wider Economic Base: The Yangtze River Delta
3 hours driving distance from Shanghai; 15 big cities with a population of over 1 mil. each; 55 cities, 1,446 towns; GDP 400 bil. USD (2/3 India); 22% of China’s manufacturing capacity; 25% of FDI in China; 30% of China’s exports.
International Manufacturing Centre
Timetable • World Factory (Now) • → Equipment Processing Base（2007） • → Advanced Manufacturing Centre（2010） • → High-Tech Industrial Centre（2015） • → Innovation Centre（2020） Opportunities • Outsourcing • Regional Plan Equipment • EXPO 2010 Processing Base • Creative City
2005 2007 2010 2015
Innovation Centre
2020
Flow of Goods, Flow of Fortune
Shanghai as an International Transport and Trade Centre
The Yangshan Project Port – Bridge - City
Port: 12 mil TEU containers by 2020 Bridge Completed 300,000 City Residents by 2020
International Transportation Centre
Timetable • → Regional Logistics Centre（2007） • → International Transportation Centre（2010） • → Biggest International Transportation Centre（2020） Opportunities • Yangshan Project • Pudong Airport • East Asia FTA • Transportation Services
2005
Yangshan Project fully functioning Regional Logistics Centre
2007
2010
2015
2020
International Trade Centre
Timetable • → Regional Trade & Exhibition Centre（2010） • → An International Trade Centre （2015） • → The Brain of World Trade （2020） Opportunities • Modern Service Sector • WTO Doha Round • EXPO 2010 • East Asia FTA • Regional Integration 2005
EXPO 2010
2007
2010
2015
2020
Time to let Shanghai be what she used to be
The International Financial Center
Opportunities Financial Reform RMB Revaluation RMB Internationalisation
Capital Account Liberalization
RMB Revaluation
2005
2007
2010
2015
2020
SHANGHAI’s
Economic Future in an Urban Age
Financial Centre Trade Centre Transportation Centre
Manufacturing Centre
Weaknesses
• • • • • • • • • Strong Government vs. Marginalised Stakeholders Economic Transition vs. Path Dependency Big SOEs, Strong Foreign Firms, and a Glass Ceiling for Local MSEs Social Security Network and Social Capital Underdeveloped Cultural Capital R&D and the Creative Class Energy Labour Space
Shanghai a Portrait
Shanghai is a girl, the deputy head of the Class of China. The leader of the East China team and TA in the Foreign Languages Courses. In many aspects she over-performs all her classmates. She leads not only in the scores but also in terms of fashion. She has style and sometimes looks down upon her classmates. But because of that she will never be the head of her class.
姓名：上海 性别：女 职务：副班长、华东小组组长、 外语课代表 能力和条件都比班长强，考试成绩总 是全班第一，打扮也很时髦，当副职 只因为她是女的，出身也没班长好 （她家解放前是富商），还有点小 资，看不起其他同学。