Modeling Innovation Driven Mitigation by yaofenji

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									   Transformation und Singularität
Seminar zu Qualitative Systemwissenschaften LV-Nr. 905.663
Dr. Wolf D. Grossmann
Die Situation
• Wissensexplosion
• Wissenswerkzeuge
• China- Indien / Bevölkerungsentwicklung 2100
Panorama
• 4 Sektoren & Neuerfindung -welcher Sektor?
• Wie Reichtum? 17 Menschen global Agrar?
• Organisationsformen?
• Wandel - wie angehen?
• Soziale Gemeinschaften & Lernen
Wichtigste Systemstrukturen
• Lotka-Volterra
• Kreuzkatalytische Netzwerke
  (Cross-Catalytical Networks - CCNs)
• Wolstenholm‘s four 2-Loop Systems

Wegweiser (Welche sind es)?
• Web 2
• Heuschrecken, Darwin, Evolution, Verzweiflung
Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                          Wissensexplosion

Size of Knowledge Sphere in 2006, in 2013, in 2019


 From invention of fire up to year 2006:



            In year 2013:




            In year 2019:




Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
      Wissenskomponenten der Vier Sektoren




      4.           3.            2.           1.

Effects of the rise of a new sector:
•   general increase of wealth
•   relative and /delayed/ absolute decline of established sectors
•   rise of a new group of key people
•   much delayed: loss of power of old key people – strong fights
•   high subsidies for declining sectors (i.e. robbery from new sector)
•   rise to importance of new types of knowledge
•   increase in number of jobs – job security comes from change!
•   increase in division of labor
•   increase in number of different types of jobs
•   increasing importance of knowledge & of the “raw material” information
•   increasing demand for linking-up (networking)
•   increasing differentiation of urban functions – rise in quality of life
    Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                         Wissenswerkzeuge
                             Bottleneck:Key People
                            (OECD: Highly Qualified)                       Factor 2/y
                                                                           Network Wizards
                                                                           & Gilder`s Law

        Bottleneck:                                             Extension of
    Effective Inventors/                                         computer
        innovators                                               networks


                                                                                 Factor 3/y
                                    Potential of                                 Gilder`s Law
                                    knowledge
                               tools as multiplicative
Number of                         with its factors:
information                                                                      Speed of
   types                                                                         networks
                     Total factor 100/y
                                  Metcalfe`s and
                                 Grossmann`s Law

     Digitally                                                      Number of
    available                                                       microchips
   Information
                                      Throughput of                         Factor 5/y ?
                                       microchips                           (RFIDs,
     Factor 3/y
                                                                            microproces-
                             Factor 1.6/ y                                  sors in cars, cell
                             Moore`s Law                                    phones, iPods,
                                                                            organizers,.......)
Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007     Apr-13
        The Big CCN: Socioeconomic System


                                                  6
               1                      2           1           3
                Key                       Economy                 Knowledge
              people H                       K                        A
                                  5                            4                1
                                                  7
       Economic Growth Projection (GDP in US$)




Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007       Apr-13
                 Entwicklungsprojektionen für
                        Treibhausgase
  Die Wissenschaftler-Community stimmt darin überein, dass die
  Emissionen von Treibhausgasen auf 10% der jetzigen abgesenkt werden
  müssen. Die folgende Projektion berücksichtigt das
  Wirtschaftswachstum der vorigen Folie und unterstellt eine weitere
  Verminderung der spezifischen Emissionskoeffizienten mit dem
  (ziemlich hohen) Tempo der vergangenen 100 Jahre. Diese Projektion
  zeigt dramatische Probleme bei dieser Minderung der Emissionen.




 Dies wird nur mit extremer Innovation möglich sein.
 ..... Alle Auswertungen von „radikaler Innovation“ zeigen:
 • sie ist für wirtschaftliches Wohlergehen unerläßlich
 • sie kann Wirtschaftswachstum massiv erhöhen (Faktor 6 für USA).

 Innovation ist die Möglichkeit der Wahl zur Vermeidung
 einer derzeit vorprogrammierten Katastrophe.
Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
           Universitätsausbildung weltweit
               insb. China + Indien

    •    Von 1991 bis 2004 verdoppelte sich die Studentenzahl
         weltweit von 68 Millionen auf 132 Millionen
    •    Von 1991 bis 2004 wuchs die Studentenzahl in China
         um einen Faktor 6.5; es studieren (Jahr 2005) 21% der
         entsprechenden Jahrgänge; die Zahl der Diplome stieg
         von 10.000 in 1982-83 auf 127.331 u. 4.4 Millionen
         Abschlüsse in 2004 (Faktor 13 bei Diplomen). China hat
         788.000 Diplomstudenten; Indien hat 806.000
    •     Nach internationalen Erhebungen hat China ca. 5 Elite-
         Universitäten, Deutschland keine (oder ein, zwei -
         umstritten)

    •    Student-Participation für ausgewählte OECD-Länder
         Neuseeland      81%
         USA             63%
         Korea (Süd)     50%
         Deutschland 36%

    China kann Studentenzahl noch 2.5fach erhöhen.
    Indien ist vergleichbar mit China


    Wissen wächst schneller als die Zahl der
     Personen, die es verwerten können.


Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
production                  Die vier Sektoren


                                                                                     Fourth
Value of




                                                                                     Sector




                                                                                         Third
                                                                                         Sector




                                                                                         Second
                                                                                         Sector



                                                                                  First Sector




                           1820         1870           1920           1970        2020     Year


        Jeder neue Sektors transformiert alles....
        Jetzt: 3. Sektor global: 60% BWS
        (Wertschöpfung), reiche Länder: 82%
        Jetzt: in USA 4. Sektor schon über 60% der BWS.
  Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
        Grundstrukturen 1: Lotka-Volterra

                        1                     2               +
                                                       Der
                    Naturwälder                     nutzende
                                                     Mensch
                                  -           3

• Naturwälder können sich eigenständig regenerieren
• Naturwälder sind für Menschen nützlich
  (förderlich)
• Menschen tendieren dazu, mehr zu entnehmen, als
  nachwächst: Was A nicht erntet, nimmt B an sich
  („Tragedy of the Commons“, Hardin)
• Wenn Naturwälder die einzige Nahrungsquelle des
Menschen wären, würde dies wilde Schwingungen
der Bevölkerungszahlen mit sich bringen:
Übernutzung           Hunger
        Bevölkerungsrückgang          Walderholung
                Bevölkerungszunahme

• Lotka-Volterra Strukturen gibt es überall: in Ehen,
Firmen, Staaten (Steuerzahler), sozialen Gruppen
Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                            Grundstrukturen 2:
   Cross-Catalytical Networks (CCNs)
                                               6
           1                      2            1           3
    Programmers                    Computers                    Software
         H                            K                             A
                              5                             4               1


CCN: Hyperbolic Growth – infinite in finite time -“Singularity”
CCN: Two or more subsystems, which grow autocatalytically and support each
other.

1: autocatalysis: Programmers train more programmers; computers
compute new computers, software makes new software.
2: Computers benefit from programmers
3: Software benefits from computers (greater market for software)
4: Computers benefit from software
5: Programmers benefit from computers
6: More programmers produce more software
7: More software makes programmers more productive


• CCN- Strukturen gibt es überall: in Ehen, Firmen,
Staaten, sozialen Gruppen, Biosphäre (Bsp. Bäume
und Mykorrhiza - „Symbiose“)
Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
   25 TOP TECHNOLOGY BREAKTHROUGHS
                  2005
(From panel of experts assembled by CNN)
1) Wireless world
2) Defense technology (Smart bombs are guided to their targets by satellites.
Robots are used to disarm roadside bombs in Iraq and to search out caves in
Afghanistan.)
3) Alternative fuel vehicles (hybrid vehicles etc.)
4) Biotechnology (based on genomics etc.)
5) Computers (having a computer in almost every home)
6) Lasers (applications in medicine and CD and DVD recording and playback)
7) Genomics (genetic makeup of many organisms)
8) Global finance (From banking to shopping to investing, technology and the
Internet are transforming the way we conduct our global banking and financing)
9) Processors
10) Digital storage
11) Space (Hubble telescope has allowed us to peer into galaxies more than 12
billion years away. Unmanned spacecraft have landed on Mars.)
12) Fiber optics
13) Satellite TV & radio
14) DNA testing
15) Video games
16) Biometrics (the science of digitizing information such as fingerprints or facial
features for accurate identification)
17) Energy and water savers (e.g. the compact fluorescent light bulb)
18) Scanning tunneling microscopes
19) Batteries
20) E-baggage
21) Remote controls (allows viewers to tailor their own experiences. Today, the
$10 billion a year industry produces realistic games that invite players into fantasy
worlds, sports and even wars.)
22) Animal cloning
23) Manufacturing technology (computer aided design and computer aided
manufacturing, robots)
24) The big picture (TV screens, IMAX etc.)
25) Weather technology
  Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                       Survival of Old Sectors:
                       Only through 4th Sector
Knowledge                                                                          Knowledge
  Tools                    Sector 4: Knowl & Inf (I)
                                               I Transformed

                              I
                            Mature




Sector 1: Primary (P)                                    Sector 3: Services (S)
                   P Transformed                                          S Transformed

  P
                                                          S
Mature
                                                        Mature




                                                G Transformed
     Sector 2:
     Goods (G)                G
                            Mature




 Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
  Growth in the Service Sector / Hamburg, Germany
     years 1980- 1997 (in 2005 at 82% of GDP)

         (Data from DIW/ Hamburg Senate/ Regionconsult)


                           Financial services

                                                                   Gastronomy
                            Housing offers
                                                                    Education
                             ........
                                                                    Research
    2.5
Service
Sector                                                              Health
                       Services other
                                                                    Culture
                                   4

                                                              5    Services remaining

                                                                  • Advertising
                                                                  • Technical consult
     Growth by factor                                             • Tax adviser
                                                                  • Consultation
     within 17 years


 Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
Hyperbolic prospects for economy & jobs?

Goods production does not create new jobs.
  Example: China doubled its goods production
  between 1998 and 2004 – and lost 15 million
  jobs. In the same period, Germany, at constant
  production, lost 30% of its jobs.

Question: What is the minimum number of jobs,
  globally, in goods production?
   May be 20,000? / We don’t know!
Minimum number of farming jobs, globally?
   May be 2,000? / We don’t know!

But: Hyperbolic growth of opportunities for
   earning money with ever more products based
   on knowledge, as the amount of knowledge is
   growing hyperbolically,
    & knowledge tools are growing hyperbolically
   & is new field: cannot be readily rationalized =
   high job security.
Job security comes from permanent change.

Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                      Implications for countries

     Worldview of zero-sum games is wrong (i.e.
       we lose the jobs that developing countries
       are getting & we all get poorer)
     Data show instead: dramatic increase of jobs,
       globally.
     Data show: dramatic increase in good jobs.
     Data show: Hyperbolic premium on co-
       operation (CCNs) - demanding
       specialization
       (in science, economy, between cultures...)

     In comparison to co-operation: isolated
        Darwinian Competitors lose & are
        mathematically totally disadvantaged




Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                               Summary/Outlook

•There are limits to material products in a finite world
• No limit to growth of human knowledge
• Knowledge becomes effective through
  combination of different fields of knowledge
• CCNs are underlying growth of human knowledge
   and knowledge tools & information

• No known limit to growth of knowledge economy
• The global economy is not a zero-sum system;
  It is a CCN based on knowledge & information
  plus some Lotka-Volterra structures

• Number of scientists grows slower than the
  knowledge-sphere,
• Hence: More benefit for all if more countries
  develop their human potential

• Those countries will benefit most that most
  energetically, skillfully foster their knowledge
  economy;
 decline of goods manufacturing may be a blessing

 Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                          Problems & Question


       Hyperbolic increase in the value of old,
       proven, endogenous, knowledge and
       cultures?

       The problem of ever greater power
       available to ever smaller groups

       Hyperbolic growth of economy and of
       human powers: Will it kill the biosphere?

       Is this an answer: embed humanity into the
       biosphere within a CCN-structure of
       mutual benefit for both?

       (Can there be any different answer?)




Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
        Power of Nations (who will drop out?)

     (A search for answers in a totally new situation)

     • Those who do not understand and advance this
       new situation.
     • Those who underestimate its power for evil.
     • Those who will use it for evil.
     • Those who do not co-operate (media
       companies?)
     • Those who cling to the old (farmers, trade
       unions, university presidents, presidents in
       general).
     • Those who subsidize the old.
     • Those who are afraid.
     • Those who are unwilling to learn (this has
       always been true for plants & animals).
     • Those who refuse to change.

     • Those who do not advance morality and
       ethics - How else could we survive so much
       power?


Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                                     What to Do

     • Ask yourself, when looking around you, at
       your world, at your personal development,
       your field of knowledge, your job, your
       family and friends:
     • Is this new development relevant for me?
       What could be its consequences for me?
       How can I take advantage of it? How can I
       help my faculty and my family and friends
       to benefit from it? How could I help a few
       others to solve problems with this?
     • What do I need to be concerned about
       taking these developments into account?
       How could I contribute to helping other
       countries and poor people?

     • Help to prevent this from becoming a
       disaster but instead becoming a
       development for the general good.


Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
       3. NAISC 1997 for a New Economy

                                                    ”Unlike previous
                                                    SIC revisions
                                                    (Standard
                                                    Industry
                                                    Classification),
                                                    the NAICS
                                                    changes are
                                                    fundamental.”




  NAICS United States: Fundamental Economic Change

  • NAISC provides 358 new industries the SIC did not
    identify,
  • 390 that are revised from their SIC counterparts
  • 422 that continue substantially unchanged

          •    Www.Census.Gov/naics




Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13
                                             Indicators for new economy: USA

    1980 - 2000 (Census data):
    4.5 million new jobs/year
    2.5 million jobs lost in mature economy/year
    Net: 2 million new jobs/year.
    Overall in 20 years: 90 million new jobs,
         50 million lost, 40 million more jobs than in 1980.
    “Creative destruction (Schumpter), “Churn” (Kelly)




     OECD data:
                                       200


                                       180
      Index of employment (1960=100)




                                       160
                                                                                                              N. America
                                                                                                              Oceania
                                       140
                                                                                                              Japan
                                                                                                              EFTA
                                       120                                                                    EU


                                       100


                                       80
                                        1955   1960   1965   1970   1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000




     High quality of new jobs
     75% of the 40 million new jobs are of highest quality:
     • 18 million „Managerial-Professional“
     • 11 million „Technical, sales, administrative”
     • less than 15% „Service occupation“
Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007                                              Apr-13
  Drivers of hyperbolic growth of knowledge

  Economic transformation – now 4 Sectors
  4th Sector is indicator for transformation of art &
  culture & ethics & behavior
  Major underlying reasons and structures:
  1) Hyperbolic growth of knowledge
  Doubling times (Kurzweil): Genomics, IT-tools,...
  CCN-interactions between fields of knowledge
  Examples: mathematics and physics, mathematics and economy
  (application of functional analysis to economy: general equilibrium theory),
  biophysics, biochemistry, outlook: the present mathematical restructuring:
  deeper common underlying structures

  2) Exponential/hyperbolic growth of tools for handling of
  knowledge
  Constant doubling times between 7 months and 1.5 years
  Example for impacts: present state and future of the radio
              – “Death of the radio - as we know it“ (Wired)

  4) Hyperbolic interactions between tools and knowledge
  Shortening doubling times e.g. in genome sequencing

  / Knowledge could include the spheres of information, in particular
  biological information in genomes, proteins and ecosystem
  functioning and arts & culture /
  - Knowledge could be defined as everything that becomes
  amenable with these new tools.

Wolf Grossmann/University of Hawaii International Center Climate Society 2007   Apr-13

								
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