Shanghai Forum

Shanghai Forum NEWSLETTER Vol.1 No.5 2007 1 Host: Fudan University Sponsor：The Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies (KFAS) Editorial Committee Directors： Shenghong Wang President, Fudan University Shaode Qin Chancellor, Fudan University Jae-Youl Kim Secretary General, The Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies Editor In Chief： Zheng Xu Vice President, Fudan University Vice Editors In Chief (in alphabetical order): Yongming Fan Chairman, Center for Japanese Studies, Fudan University Tae-Seok Kang Manager, International Academy Division, KFAS Taeg Kim Senior Manager, International Academic Division，KFAS Xizhe Peng Dean, School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University Dingli Shen Chairman, Center for American Studies, Fudan University Yuanhua Shi Chairman, Center for Korean Studies, Fudan University Jingping Wu Chairman, Center for Asian Studies, Fudan University Zhigang Yuan Dean, School of Economics, Fudan University Executive Editors Zhiqing Li General Director, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University Ye Zhou Director, News Center, Fudan University Qiang Xin Deputy Director, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University Youde Guo Deputy Director, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University 2 Editors: Mary Lee Chief Editor, Asia Research Network, KFAS Yan Zhang Program Officer, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University Sandy Zhu Program Officer, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University Wei Shi Program Officer, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University 3 Shanghai Forum Newsletter Shanghai Forum Newsletter is a publication of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee. It aims to promote the Forum‟s publicity and influence in academic, political and business circles. It includes news releases, feature reports, major projects, and consolidates the Forum‟s progression in different phrases so as to boost the Forum‟s development. 4 Contents ⅠNews .................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.5 “Speeches,People, Papers and Discussions"----Shanghai Forum 2007 Retrospective Conference Held at Fudan University.................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.5 Building A Leading Economic Forum of the Global Community Together----Shanghai Forum 2008 Signing Ceremony Held…………………………………….5 Topics·Scholars·Discussions·Cooperation-----Shanghai Forum 2008 Press Conference Held ....................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.9 Latest News ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.11 ⅡFeature·Sub-forums of Shanghai Forum 2008.... Error! Bookmark not defined.12 Regional Economic Growth and Equity Policies .................. Error! Bookmark not defined.12 Financial Transition in Asia .................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.14 Asia’s Economic Transformation and International Order.. Error! Bookmark not defined.14 Sustainable Development of Society and Economy ............ Error! Bookmark not defined.15 Strategic Choices of Asian Cities under Globalization ......... Error! Bookmark not defined.15 Economic Transformation for Asia: the International Environment and Institutional Restructuring ....................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.16 Ⅲ Voices·Keynote Speeches of Shanghai Forum 2007 .......... Error! Bookmark not defined.18 "Towards Sustainable Urban Futures: Urbanization in an Era of Globalization and Environmental Change" By Prof. Dr. Hans van Ginkel, Under Secretary General of United Nations, President of United Nations University ................ Error! Bookmark not defined.18 Min Zhu................................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.21 Vishakha N. Desai ................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.24 ⅣActivities ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.26 Special Activities of Shanghai Forum 2008 1st Launch-----Special Report on China's Macro-economy…………………………………………………………………………………27 ⅤLearning from Others .......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.30 About Davos: Report on the Functioning System of World Economic Forum…………………31 5 ⅠNews · Shanghai Forum 2007 Retrospective Conference & Shanghai Forum 2008 Signing Ceremony The Shanghai Forum 2007 Retrospective Conference & Shanghai Forum 2008 Signing Ceremony was held at Yifu Science & Technology Building, Fudan University, on the morning of Sep. 18th, 2007. The three Chairpersons of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee – Prof. Shenghong Wang, President of Fudan University, Prof. Shaode Qin, Chancellor of Fudan University and Dr. Jae-Youl Kim, President of the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies – attended the Conference and Signing Ceremony. They were joined by members of Shanghai Forum‟s Committee of Experts, who offered their specialist guidance at both events. The Retrospective Conference was hosted by Mr. Yinzhang Chen, Executive Vice Chairperson of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee and Assistant to the President of Fudan University. Dr. Zheng Xu, Vice President of Fudan University, gave a retrospective summary of Shanghai Forum 2007, before delivering a briefing on preliminary preparations for next year‟s Forum. She discussed various aspects of the 2007 Forum, including its guests and delegates, media coverage, domestic and international collaborative partnerships, as well as publication of the „Shanghai Forum Consensus‟. She also emphasized that the success of the 2007 Forum would not have been possible without the collaboration of Fudan University‟s wide-ranging network of international University „strategic partners‟ and academic supporters, that of the Korean Institute for Advanced Studies, and also the close collaboration of all the departments and schools of Fudan University. The major theme of Shanghai Forum 2008 is that of globalization, and preparation for the next year‟s forum has four principal objectives: to make sure that academic preparations are made in advance; to choose „hot topics‟ as themes of discussion; to provide equilibrium in the range of delegates; and to provide more diversity in the projects and activities of Shanghai Forum 2008. Prof. Zhigang Yuan, Director of Shanghai Forum Academic Steering Committee and Dean of Fudan University‟s School of Economics, further expounded on the academic achievements of Shanghai Forum 2007. He introduced the academic organizing framework for Shanghai Forum 2008, including the management of the forum‟s academic affairs, as well as organization of its domestic and international collaborative relationships. He also summarized the academic achievements of the 2007 Forum, outlining the various special guests and other participants involved, the content of the Sub-forums, publication of papers, media reports, and development of the „Shanghai Forum Consensus‟. He also discussed the theme of the 2008 Forum: “Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Change, Growth and Welfare”. Afterwards, Dr. Jae-Youl Kim expressed his expectations of Shanghai Forum developing into an international economic forum benefiting the whole world and aspiring to a harmonious society. He also thanked Fudan University for all the efforts and commitment made by the school‟s leaders, faculties and students for the Forum. Finally, Prof. Shaode Qin, Chancellor of Fudan University, gave a speech, in which he summarized and proposed suggestions for the Forum to maintain its 6 momentum and vitality in the long run. Finally, President Shenghong Wang and Dr. Jae-Youl Kim signed the „Shanghai Forum 2008‟ cooperation agreement, and exchanged gifts, signifying the official commencement of preparations for „Shanghai Forum 2008‟.  Speech by Prof. Shaode Qin, Chancellor of Fudan University “Honorable President Jae-Youl Kim, distinguished scholars, guests, and teachers: The last speaker seemed to have brought me back to May, which impressed me deeply as a busy, enriched, unforgettable month full of enthusiasm. Today we are meeting here to hold a retrospective conference for Shanghai Forum 2007 so that we can share our knowledge and experience got form the Forum and make plans for the future. It‟s also expected that through this conference, all of us can be united together for the better preparation of the coming Forum. First of all, I‟d like to give our sincere gratitude to the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies (KFAS) on behalf of our university. President Kim and the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies have been highly supportive of Fudan University, and this support has laid a solid basis for the success of the last two years‟ Forums. In the past decade, we have been making great cooperation on such programs as the Asia Research Center, the South Korea Research Center, and of course the Shanghai Forum. Besides this, a stable system of cooperation has been emerging between us, which is decisive to our future success. It is my belief that if this cooperation can be constantly strengthened and improved, we will have even more successful results on a wider scale. Secondly, I‟d like to thank all the commission members and experts in the Academic Steering Committee of Shanghai Forum. Their academic collaboration is a cornerstone of the forum, and crucial in determining its success. Great themes, great people, great discussions and great publications are the four pillars upon which the forum rests, with members of the Academic Committee providing the cornerstone of each pillar. Without their active participation, profound thinking and firm support, success would be impossible for us, no matter how well the other work 7 is done. During the last year, the theme of the conference has been selected and the academic context of the sub-forums has been worked out by the Committee members. They have also collected many insightful papers and have been participating into all kinds of activities hosted by the forum. It‟s my hope that in the coming year, all of you will support and join in the forum‟s work as enthusiastically as you always have been, providing the momentum to make this a forum that more than ever reflects the burgeoning spirit of Fudan University and Shanghai, and the future of China and Asia. Finally, many thanks should be given to the whole forum staff that has made great efforts to ensure the success of the forum. It‟s due to the cooperation of all parties that the Forum could be held so smoothly and efficiently. We have called upon all the staff members within our school, and have selected able members to do the publicizing, logistics and reception work to make sure that we can overcome the difficulties of hosting the conference. Moreover, the expense of holding the forum has been greatly reduced by our sticking to the principle of getting everything done with our own heads and hands. Shanghai Forum is the first large forum to be prepared and hosted by a university. But we have made it highly successful by making use of all the facilities and systems set up for the centenary of our university, which means that more such forums can be held in Fudan. The large number of our devoted staff, those working on the front-line along with the many student volunteers working backstage, have been standing closely together while confronting difficulties. Their careful attention to detail helped make our guests feel at home, and gave our visitors a clear demonstration of the Fudan spirit. The success of the last two years‟ forums can be seen as the first step we have made in the realization of our long-term plan. They have also shown the significance and the broad prospects of Shanghai Forum, which is becoming a worldwide forum for free discussion, and also a brand of Shanghai. We have made our theme the heated topic of Asia in the international setting, with Shanghai being the theme city, inviting experts from worldwide to share their experience, knowledge, and ideas, and have extracted the Shanghai Forum Consensus from their shared thoughts and ideas. Shanghai Forum has found its focus, and takes its mission as “Concentrating on Asia, Focusing on Hot Issues, Congregating Elites, Promoting Interactions, Enhancing Cooperation and Seeking Consensus.” Shanghai Forum is gradually becoming the platform for international cooperation among universities within the Asian, even the Asia-Pacific region. Along with the KFAS and Fudan, Yale University of the U.S., Waseda University of Japan and National University of Singapore have all now been added to the list of our strategic partners. Still more international partners are waiting to be involved. Shanghai Forum has also provided great opportunities for Fudan University, for it has enhanced the growth of related subjects and of academic research here, and has raised the position of our opinion on significant topics. Through academic exchange with experts worldwide, our scholars can find research subjects that are of first-rate importance in their realm. By giving presentations 8 at the forum, our young experts can also play a role on the world academic stage. Also, the forum has given Fudan a more influential international position and more opportunities for communicating with other countries. We have learned form the last two forums that setting up a profoundly influential brand requires our constant effort. It‟s time to wave goodbye to the 2007 Forum and embrace a new round of preparation for 2008. At this point, I‟d like to raise two questions for all of us to think about. The first question is how to maintain the high vitality of the forum. One of the most important principles in this aspect is that we stick to our philosophy, paying attention to the central problems in Asia, and propelling communication and cooperation among Asian countries. As I said in the 2007 Shanghai Forum Consensus, I share with all of you: “the rich diversity of Asian cultures and an ancient and splendid civilization. Asian countries should take new steps to advance cultural exchange and economic cooperation across national and regional boundaries. The long flow of Asian history reveals yet another lesson: Harmonious development and economic prosperity can be achieved only through peaceful coexistence, and only through cooperation based on equality and mutual assistance. The harmonious development of Asia will bring substantial benefits to the whole world.” Thus, an important topic was put forward at the 2007 Shanghai Forum: the harmonious development of Asia. It requires a lot of hard work for a forum to raise such a topic and make it the focus of the scholars‟ consensus. Thus we may give some consideration to the suggestion that we should make the forum more open in order to invite more international scholars, politicians and business elites into the forum. There are many ways we can achieve this. To put it simply, however, we believe that the more countries and regions, the more universities, governments and enterprises there are in the forum, the more successful the forum will be. The second question is how to achieve the long-term vitality of the Forum. We need a sustainable forum-hosting system and faculty, and a stable financial supporter. Besides, we should provide clear paths for coordination and communication, specialized staff and conference-preparation faculty, while improving our ability to hold large international conferences. We should make good arrangements for the coming year regarding the establishment of the Academic Steering Committee, media publicizing, gaining of academic achievements, invitation of guests, and general preparation of the forum. Only through well-planned systems and operations can we achieve the long-term vitality of Shanghai Forum. In a word, there‟s still a lot for us to do. Honorable scholars and guests, A thousand mile journey is started by taking the first step. After this retrospective conference there will be the signing ceremony for Shanghai Forum 2008 and the special academic report on the theme of Shanghai Forum 2008: “Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Transition, Growth and Welfare”. I believe these are the first steps towards the success of the 2008 Forum, and I wish our Shanghai Forum a better tomorrow and a successful 9 conclusion of today‟s activities. Thank you!”  Speech by Dr. Jae-Youl Kim, Secretary General of The Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies “Thank you President Xu, thank you Dean Yuan for your all-round review of Shanghai Forum 2007 as well as the promising preview of Shanghai Forum 2008. Thank you very much for the generous support to Shanghai Forum from the scholars, professors and students of Fudan University. Thank you very much for President Wang and Chancellor Qin‟s diligent efforts and support, by which I‟m greatly moved. In the year 2003 I proposed Shanghai Forum to President Wang for the first time, and President Wang suggested that we start in 2005, in order to coincide with the centenary celebration of Fudan University. We also discussed the long-term blueprint of Shanghai Forum. Shanghai Forum should be an economic Forum, as the 21st Century should be an era of global economic globalization, with China‟s economy playing a key role. Shanghai being the economic center of China, we have designed the Shanghai Forum accordingly. Back at that time we also talked about the 2010 World Expo, and we thought by that time our Shanghai Forum should have become an influential international Forum of the World. But hearing the speeches given just now by the professors and President Xu, I think perhaps we need not wait until 2010, as Shanghai Forum in 2008 is going to become a highly influential world economic forum devoted to the hot issues of the global economy. I myself did not major in economy, but in philosophy, and I‟m always wondering, what is the final end of our Forum? And what is our aspiration from a philosophical perspective? We all know that world history is a story of competition and rivalry. During the last hundred years of history we have experienced colonization and invasion. Now we are moving from a period of ideologically-oriented political development into one of economically-oriented development. The regional economy is now 10 becoming more and more based on economically-oriented development, and thus we wish to explore the concept of globalization in the context of our Forum. We have settled on our theme of “Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia” so as to dedicate ourselves to the two equally important concepts of the regional economy and the global economy. Shanghai Forum has also been conceived against the background of a period whose defining features are economic globalization, and the hegemony of the world‟s superpowers. But my perception of the goal of Shanghai Forum and, indeed, of the 21st Century economy, is not that of fostering competition between rival global ideologies or power-blocs. I believe one of the key goals of the 21st Century should be harmony. That‟s why at Shanghai Forum we also want to discuss harmonious human development, in a spirit of welfare, well-being and freedom. Our goal and aspiration is to organize Shanghai Forum so as to benefit the whole world and make global society more harmonious. That requires the constant efforts of President Wang, President Xu and all the experts and professors present today. From a short-term strategic point of view, our benefits come from competition and rivalry, but from a longer-term perspective, Shanghai Forum wishes to use these benefits to help build a better and more harmonious global society. Just now we heard from our professors the topics for next year‟s Forum, and I think many of them are imbued with this ideal of harmony. I hope that Shanghai Forum 2008 can continue to invite outstanding experts and professors from political, commercial and academic circles to discuss the hottest issues of today‟s world and become an outstanding world economic forum itself in guiding the world community. The first Shanghai Forum was held in 2005, but, in my opinion, Shanghai Forum 2008 will be an important starting point. Thank you again for the efforts and support from the faculties and students, scholars and professors of Fudan University. I myself will also spare no efforts in working together with President Xu, Chancellor Qin and you all. Thank you!” 11 Shanghai Forum 2008 Press Conference & Special Report on China’s Macro-economy On the afternoon of Sep. 18, 2007, the Shanghai Forum 2008 Press Conference & Special Report on China‟s Macro-economic Situation was held at the Guanghua Building, Fudan University. The first part of the press conference was presided over by Dr. Zheng Xu, Vice President of Fudan University. Prof. Wang Shenghong, President of Fudan University, Dr. Liu Pak Wai, President of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Dr. Jae-Youl Kim, President of the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, all addressed the conference, outlining the preparations for „Shanghai Forum 2008‟. Prof. Lei Shi, Secretary of Fudan University‟s Economics Department, presided over the second part of the press conference. Prof. Yuan Zhigang, Dean of Fudan University‟s School of Economics, Prof. Min Hua, Director of Fudan University‟s Global Economics Research Institute, Prof. Jun Zhang, Director of the Chinese Market Socialism Economics Research Centre at Fudan University, and Prof. Hongzhong Liu, Director of the Finance Department at Fudan University‟s School of Economics, all outlined and discussed the themes and topics of „Shanghai Forum 2008‟ and its various Sub-forums. Following the Press Conference was a „Special Report on China‟s Macro-economic Situation‟. Prof. Ruyin Hu, Prof. Ruyin Hu, Director of the Research Center of Shanghai Security Exchange, Prof. Youwen Zhang, Director and Senior Research Fellow of the Institute of World Economy at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS), Prof. Zhigang Yuan, Dean of Fudan University‟s School of Economics, Prof. Jun Zhang, Director of the Chinese Market Socialism Economics Research Centre at Fudan University, Prof. Hongzhong Liu, Director of the Finance Department at Fudan University‟s School of Economics, and Prof. Xingmin Yin, Assistant Director of the Market Socialism Research Department at Fudan University‟s School of Economics all delivered special reports. The event was presided over by Prof. Lei Shi, Secretary of Fudan University‟s Economics Department. Members of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Shanghai Forum Academic Steering Committee, and faculties and leaders of Fudan University presented at the Press Conference and Special Report. 12  Speech by Prof. Shenghong Wang, President of Fudan University “Distinguished guests from the media, Honorable President Jae-Youl Kim of the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, Ladies and Gentlemen, good afternoon! I‟d like to give all of you a warm welcome and to declare, as the Chancellor of Fudan University and the chairman of the Organizing Committee of Shanghai Forum, that Shanghai Forum 2008, another high-level academic forum, will be held in Fudan University from May, 25th to May 27th in the year of 2008. Shanghai Forum is one of the most important international academic forums held by Fudan University and will be held the third time in 9008.The Forum focuses on the main problems faced by Asian countries in the global economy, works at the construction of a academic forum for the communication and clashing of ideas, and has gained broad attention and high significance both domestically and internationally. In 2007, more than 300 representatives from more than 30 countries and regions, including many noted politicians and international entrepreneurs participated in the Forum and work hard with all the other participants to achieve the Shanghai Forum Consensus, offered great suggestions for the overall development of Asia‟s economy, politics, society and culture, and gained loud applause both in and abroad. The coming-soon 2008 Shanghai Forum takes as its theme “The Choice of Asia: Transition, Growth, and Welfare”, and centers on the six topics of “Regional Economic Growth and Equality Policies”, “Financial Transition of East Asia”, “Sustainable Development of Society and Economy,” “Asia‟s Economic Transformation and Regional Security”“The Strategic Choice for , Asian Cities under the Background of Globalization” ，and “Economic Transformation for Asia: the international Environment and Institutional Restructuring”. About 300 guests will be invited and the mission of the Forum will continue to be “Concentrating on Asia, Focusing on Hot Issues, Congregating Elites, Promoting Interactions, Enhancing Cooperation and Seeking Consensus.” We will build a platform for communication among the academic field, the business field and the politics field and hold discussions on important problems confronting us. 13 In order to hold another successful Forum in 2008, we have made the best of our experiences gained from the last two Forums and other high-level forums. In the 2008 Forum, we will further enhance the international cooperation and communication. Up to now, we have invited Yale University, Waseda University of Japan, and Chinese University of Hong Kong to be our cooperation partners in the preparation of relative sub-forums. It is our firm belief that a international forum should not only be a platform for the clash of ideas, but also a database for the collection of insightful ideas. Besides the composition of the Experts‟ Committee will have the characteristic of multi-element with Prof. Zhigang Yuan being the Chairman. The committee includes experts from Fudan University, elites from Shanghai and all around China, and many overseas experts. I believe that with the hard work, the Forum will have a broader influence in the academic field. Fudan University has paid great attention to the Forum, has composed for it an excellent leading-group, the Secretary General being Prof. Zheng Xu, our Deputy Chancellor in charge of the public affairs, and has called upon all members of the University for into the preparation of the Forum. This shows our strong determination to ensure the successful launching of all preparation work from all aspects. HSDK has been highly supportive to the holding of Shanghai Forum. For many years, HSDK has been working hard at providing support to the ideas both within Asia and around the world. Recently, Fudan University has been cooperating with HSDK on the establishment of South Korea Research Center (to be finally confirmed). We believe that through the holding of Shanghai Forum 2008, the cooperation between China and South Korea will enter into a new age. The preparation for the Forum cannot go without the participation, support, and help from all levels of the society, especially our media friend. And standing here today, I feel a urgent need to give our thanks to all the friend that offered us help in the preparation and holding of the last two Forums, and I hope that the preparation work, the Forum theme and the six topics of the 2008 Forum will be presented by our media friends to the enterprises both in and abroad, to all the friends that pays attention to the Forum. We will also continue our communication and cooperation with all our friends through press conferences, publicizing, and the website of the Forum. In the end, I‟d like to impart my strong belief that with the support from all levels of the society, Shanghai Forum 2008 will have a wonderful ending. Thank you!” 14 Latest News Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee Secretariat Meets at Mogan Mountain On August 20-21, 2007, the Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee Secretariat met at Mogan Mountain for its summer work conference. This meeting first summarized Shanghai Forum 2007, before discussing issues related to Shanghai Forum 2008, like development of the Forum‟s website, and organization of the next phase of preparatory work. Shanghai Forum Website Now Online Shanghai Forum‟s new website is now online at www.shanghaiforum.org. The site includes information about the Forum, a news centre, research development materials, application information, and details of participants. It is also possible to register for the Forum online. There are both Chinese and English versions of the site, as well as a special section for the 2008 Forum. Third Meeting of Shanghai Forum 2008 Academic Steering Committee On 7th September 2007, the third meeting of Shanghai Forum 2008 Academic Steering Committee was held at the School of Economics, Fudan University. The exact dates of the 2008 Forum were confirmed, as well as its six Sub-forums. The meeting also involved planning the agenda of the forthcoming press conference, as well as the publication of Shanghai Forum2007 Post-conference Anthology. Fourth Meeting of Shanghai Forum 2008 Academic Steering Committee 15 On 16th October 2007, the fourth meeting of Shanghai Forum 2008 Academic Steering Committee took place at the School of Economics of Fudan University. The meeting addressed invitation of delegates and VIPs to the coming year‟s Forum. The procedure for invitation of special guests to the 2008 Forum was confirmed, as were practical matters such as expenses. 16 ⅡFeature Exposition on the Theme of Shanghai Forum 2008 Director of Academic Steering Committee Prof. Zhigang Yuan: Professor Zhigang Yuan is Dean of the School of Economics, Fudan University and tutor of doctoral candidates. He is also Director of the Employment and Social Securities Research Center, Principal for the Post-doctoral Station of theoretical economics at Fudan University, member of the University Affairs Committee of Fudan University, Vice Chairman of Shanghai Macro-economics Institute, as well as adviser to the Minister of Labor and Social Security of the People‟s Republic of China. Exposition on the General Theme: For us Chinese, the year 2008 is a year of historical importance: it is the year for Beijing to host the Olympics, the 30th year since China launched her successful economic transition. It is also the tenth anniversary of Hong Kong‟s return and it is the 10th anniversary of Southeast Asia Financial Crisis, a brand new beginning for transition. Transition here is a very important subject of the choices of Asia, which stands for the transition of economy, the transition of growths patterns, the transition of finance, the transition of industrial structure and the transition of cities. With transition being the beginning, growth being the process, we will be able to maintain a sustainable development and growth through successful transition. But what for? For the harmonious Asian community and the welfare of Asian people. Therefore transition, growth and welfare are linked together, which also conforms to the Chinese-advocated scientific development and harmonious society. (空行) Under contexts as such and the main theme of “Economic Globalization and the Choices of Asia”, we have deemed the 2008 Forum‟s subheadings as “Transition, Growth and Welfare”, and under the three subheadings, we have decided that the themes of the Sub-forums as follows: Shanghai Forum 2008 Regional Economic Growth and Equality Policies Asia‟s Economic Transformation and Regional Security The Strategic Choices for Asian Cities under the Background of Globalization Financial Transition of East Asia Sustainable Development of Society and 17 Economy 社会与经济可持续发展 Economic Transformation for Asia: the International Environment and Institutional Restructuring Economic Through insightful discussions we would like to arrive at a summarization of China‟s 30 years of successful transition, Asia‟s growth pattern transition, Asia‟s industrial structure upgrading and transition after the Southeast Asia Financial Crisis, Asia‟s expansion of city circles, Asia‟s restructuring of civilization, culture and society and Asia‟s growth pattern and its contributions to that of the human race. Exposition on the Sub-forums of Shanghai Forum 2008 Regional Economic Growth and Equality Policy Sub-forum Principal: Dr. Zhang Jun is Professor of Economics at Fudan University and serves as the Director for China Center for Economic Studies (CCES) at Fudan University. He was educated in China, Britain and United States, respectively during 1981-1994. Since 1997, he has held visiting or lecturing fellowships at London School of Economics, Harvard University, Tokyo Metropolitan University and Kyungpook National University in Korea. He also teaches for EMBA programs at CEIBS and School of Business at Shanghai Jiaotong University. He is one of the leading economists in China, specializing in many areas of current economic development and growth in China. He has many publications both in Chinese and English, including papers published in Journal of Asian Economics, Journal of Chinese Economics and Business Studies, East Asian Review, etc. He is also a columnist, frequently writing for Project Syndicate, Financial Times, Economic Observer, etc. His views on China have been widely cited in mass media, including Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, South China Morning Post, BBC, PBS and etc. Sub-forum Exposition 1. China’s Growth Transformation and Distribution Policies The Chinese central government has highlighted a scientific development concept of comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development and has outlined the vision of a harmonious socialist society, which has set the tone for defining development model transformation objectives. Therefore, it is very important to explore the policies which will help to realize the objectives. A discussion on the policies, which are not only economic ones but also governmental and administrative ones, will help decision-makers to understand and find right 18 policy approaches to transform China‟s development model. 2. Balanced Development Model in East Asia The East Asian countries are in face of a new adjustment of the global economy. Most of them, however, are still relying heavily on fixed-asset investment as an engine driving economic growth. If they fail to find a right way to stimulate consumption, the over-capacity problem in supply side will go from bad to worse. A possible economic recession outside the region could make many export-driven East Asian economies suffer heavily. In addition, the preferential policies in East Asia are not equally shared by the under-privileged groups, poverty-striken people and areas, and many countries in the region are hoping “trickle-down effects” to realize balanced development, namely, making certain social groups and regions get rich first and then pass down the fruits achieved to poverty-stricken people and less-developed areas via consumption and employment. This economic growth approach has created industrial-agricultural development gaps as well as regional development imbalances within eastern Asian countries. It is now a pressing issue for the countries to address the imbalanced development. 3. Income Distribution and Economic Growth in a Globalization Context China‟s opening-up and reform has been tremendously successful in driving rapid and continuous economic development, and it has not only accumulated national wealth in an unprecedented manner but also caused profound changes in social structure. Different social groups are emerging with different interests, while an imbalanced wealth distribution system is contributing to the rise of social conflicts. Building up a harmonious society, as the ultimate goal of China‟s development, requires not only rapid wealth accumulation but also a fairer distribution system; a balanced interest distribution structure is badly in need and China has to build up a proper social mechanism through democracy and rule-by-law to tolerate, address and coordinate interests among different social groups. Therefore, it is quite meaningful to discuss the relationship between economic growth and social justice. 4. Growth of Happiness and Policies The core question in “Happiness Economics” is the “happiness paradox” or “Easterlin paradox”, namely, why people‟s feeling of happiness decrease while income is on rise? The happiest countries in the world are not the richest. It is true that Denmark and Dutch people are happy, so do Puerto Rico people and Mexicans. In Asia, Japan is far richer, stronger and freer than the Philippines, but almost all the available research results show that the Japanese are less happy than the Filipinos. It is now a well-recognized conclusion that happiness has no correlation with income – neither positive correlation nor negative correlation. Prof. Yew-Kwang Ng from Australia has done many researches about this and has published several books on the subject. In China, it is also worth talking about growth of happiness and policies. 19 Financial Transition of Asia Sub-forum Principal: Prof. Hongzhong Liu Dr. Hongzhong Liu, Professor of Finance, Vice Director of Research Institute of Finance, Chairman of Department of International Finance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Prof. Liu received his PhD in economics at Fudan University in 1998. He is also Director of Chinese Monetary Society, Chinese International Finance Society and Shanghai Finance Society. Sub-forum Exposition The theme of Financial Sub-forum exemplifies the three key words of Shanghai Forum 2008: Transition, Growth and Welfare. Transformation of financial system comes first. Asian countries are developing financial markets for better financial resource allocation, namely promoting direct-financing instead of indirect financing and building up market-oriented financial system instead of institution-directed system. Secondly, both domestic and overseas policy makers have agreed on the role of financial system in promoting economic development, or development of financial system in one country will definitely help the local economic growth. Last but not the least is the welfare issue – financial cooperation among East Asian countries is set to accelerate regional economic integration and to boost local welfare levels. Financial cooperation is aimed to address the flow-back of huge savings as well as large volume of liquidity in the region, and the discussion will be carried out around the following subjects: 1. The Cooperation of Financial Markets in East Asia Works about building up a regional bond market under the 10+3 framework have started, but the Asian bond market and the Asian bond funds still account for a small portion in the global market. It is an important issue now on how to promote Asian bond market development and to define government‟s role in the process. 2. Construction of Necessary Market Infrastructure and Settlement System in Developing a Regional Financial Market How do we conduct the clearing and settlement? It is a problem about both hardware and software, and there is the issue of who will do it – 10+3? Bilateral or multilateral? By ASEAN, China, Japan or South Korea, what roles will the U.S. and Asia play? 20 3. The Promotion of Regional Integration How to promote regional integration against the globalization background? How to build up a regional financial market in East Asia? How to balance regional integration and globalization? What‟s the impact of regional integration on welfare? What‟s the role Shanghai will play in the process? What role should Shanghai play? These issues are worth discussing. This session will be attended by 40 delegates from academic, governmental and business circles, and the researchers are from the United States, Japan, ASEAN and China. Representatives from Asian Development Bank, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, Ministry of Finance, People‟s Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Banking Regulatory Commission will also present. Asia’s Economic Transformation and International Order Sub-forum Principal: Prof. Dingli Shen Dr. Dingli Shen is a professor of international relations at Fudan University. He is Fudan‟s Executive Dean of Institute of International Studies, and Director of Center for American Studies. He is also the co-founder and director of China's first non-government-based Program on Arms Control and Regional Security, at Fudan. His research areas cover China-U.S. security relationship, nuclear arms control and disarmament, nuclear weapons policy of the United States and China, regional nonproliferation issues concerning South Asia, Northeast Asia and Middle East, test ban, missile defense, export control, as well as China‟s foreign and defense policies. Sub-forum Exposition There are three topics under the Sub-forum of Asia‟s Economic Transformation and International Order; they are: 1. The Impact of the Rise of China and India on Asia China and India，two ancient civilizations with more than one-third of the world's population, are the two largest developing countries. The simultaneous rising of China and India promotes the trend of the world multi-polarization and globalization greatly, thereby making significant sense in the history of human civilization. As regards to Asia, the rising of China and India not only 21 brings out prosperity and development in Asia, accelerates evolution of new Asian power pattern, promotes further development of regional cooperation, but also increases Asia‟s voice in the international community greatly, adds Asia‟s strategic weight in the current global configuration, thus leading to the shifting of global economic and political center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific gradually. Meanwhile, the rise of China and India has certainly drawn great amount of attention by great powers beyond Asia, through managing to win over or associate with Asian major players so as to nurture favorable strategic positioning, hence increasing the complexities of the security environment in Asia. 2. The Ramifications of Asian Economic Integration on Regional Security Regional economic cooperation in Asia started during the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1098. Ten years later, it has gained momentum and appears to be an irreversible process. Economic cooperation, which is beneficial to all, has also turned out to be a centripetal force for countries in the region. Generally speaking, economic integration will have a “spillover effect” on regional security. At the moment the issue has not yet drawn adequate attention. Questions that need to be discussed and studied here include: to what extent regional economic cooperation has bred an identification of regional common interest and what its implications are for regional stability and the reduction of tensions; will FTA and regional economic integration help dissipate security skepticism and the rigid structure of security alliances, and will the two interact with each other in a positive way, etc. 3. Regional Cooperation and the Resolution of Nuclear Issues of Northeast Asia The security situation in Northeast Asia is presenting certain new features. The DPRK new disablement is making some headway and Pyongyang and Washington are speeding up the improvement of their relations. The high-level contacts between DPRK and ROK continue to help détente of the Korean Peninsula. The Six-Party Talks have not only promoted the dialogue and implementation of a nuclear weapon free Peninsula, but offered the possibility of presenting a platform of Northeast Asian security discussion. Nevertheless, given the complexity of security contradictions in the region, there seems to have a paralleling of regional cooperation and competition. Centering on the Korean nuclear issue, this thematic subject will reassess the security situation in Northeast Asia. It will address those issues such as the structural change of relations among the major powers, the process and the prospects of the Six-Party Talks, the building up of peace mechanism of the Korean Peninsula, as well as multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia etc. 22 Sustainable Development of Society and Economy Sub-forum Principal: Prof. Xizhe Peng Dr. Xizhe Peng is a professor of population and development at Fudan University, and serves as the Dean of the School of Social Development and Public Policy. He graduated from the Department of Economics, Fudan University, in 1982, and received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in Population Studies from London School of Economics and Political Sciences in 1984 and 1988 respectively. Dr. Peng has been working at Fudan University since 1988. His research covers a wide range of population-related issues, including population dynamics and policy, social protection and social policy, sustainable development and gender studies etc.. Sub-forum Exposition The special social and cultural environment in Asia, along with its marvelous economic achievements, has been a focus of global attention. Owing to Japan‟s economic growth since the 1960s and the economic rise both of China and India from the 1990s, Asia has got involved more and more deeply in the widening globalization. Could the economy in Asia keep developing in a rather fast manner? It is now a hot issue which attracts attentions. The fast growth of the economy in Asia is accompanied with many problems and challenges: Could the value system and the culture of East Asia support the sustainable development of the social economy? The population structure change and the gradual close of the demographic window resulted from the sustained low birth rate are exerting influences on the pattern of the economic development and the sustainable social and economic development in Asia; and as the traditional urbanization model is under reexamination in a globalization context, exploring the possible ways to realize the sustainable future development is a pressing issue challenging all the countries in Asia. Centering on the problems and challenges mentioned above, this Sub-forum discusses the following three topics. 1. East Asian Value and Asia Economic Development The shift of the modernization center from North America to East Asia followed the economic miracle in East Asia led to the changes of the global political and economic pattern. The successful modernization fosters the East Asian people‟s new cultural 23 consciousness and confidence, arouses their pursuit of cultural identify and value, and encourages them to explore the approaches of obtaining sustainable development in a balanced and harmonious society. Aiming at a referential solution to the globalization issue, this topic focuses on the relationship between the Asian economic growth mode and its social and cultural values, and attempts to investigate the specific economic growth mode in Asia from the prospective of East Asian value and culture. 2. Super-low Fertility Rate and Its Economic Effects All the East Asian countries and regions have finished successively the population transformation, and the super-low fertility rate is becoming the dominant fertility mode in this region. This kind of fertility trend has resulted and must result in the rapid population aging, thus it has a serious effect on the labor structure, economic growth mode as well as social development. Equally, it can also lead to the social resources distribution disparity between generations, except changes of marriage and family and other social structures. This topic centers on the population structure change due to the low fertility rate and its influences on the economic growth, exploring the possible political options for the Asian countries and regions. 3. Asia Witnessing Rapid Urbanization In an economic globalization and changing global environment context, the Asian cities are confronted with the question of how to achieve the harmonious development of urbanization and the economic society, and how to make the urban development an important way of the sustainable social and economic development. Investigating the relationship between life style, economic growth mode and urbanization, this topic elucidates the types and motives of urbanization by giving a new definition to it, and seeks a healthy, rescourse-saving, human-friendly and accommodative city development mode to lead the city development in the future. Strategic Choices of Asian Cities under Globalization Sub-forum Principal: Prof. Guixin Wang Dr. Guixin Wang is Professor of Economics and Tutor of Doctoral Candidates. He is now the Director of Population Research Center, Director of City and Regional Development Center, Vice Director of Academic Steering Committee of the School of Social Development and Public Policy and Director of its Graduate Students Tutoring Committee, Fudan University. He has been visiting professor at Hiroshima University in Japan in 2002 and guest-professor at Renmin University, East China Normal University and Shanghai Social Science Institute (researcher). His major research fields include population immigration and urbanization, the sustainable 24 development and decision-making system of cities and regions, population·resources·environmental economics analysis as well as management and evaluation. He has been responsible to near 20 projects of national or provincial level, including the key projects of National Social Science Foundation and National Natural Science Foundation of China. His research results have been merited with such prizes as 2 first prizes, 4 second prizes and 10+ third prizes of Shanghai Philosophic and Social Science Outstanding Research Result Award. Sub-forum Exposition The involving economic globalization has given cities a central role in social and economic development, and as the UN Tokyo conference in 1993 had predicted, “the 21st century will be a century of cities”. Cities will decide the future economy and society. Many Asian countries are still in developing stage, but globalization has profound impacts on city development in Asia. Globalization, on the one hand, has provided Asian cities with important chances to be integrated in the global economy, join international competition and share global resources to promote national or even regional economic growth; but on the other hand, globalization has also brought new challenges to Asian cities, including massive energy consumption and pollution due to rapid economic growth, widening of social wealth disparity, insufficient urban facilities and lack of housing and traffic jams on influx of rural migrant workers into cities, blind expansion of urban areas as well as city management headaches. It is a consensus now among Asian countries and regions that they should share experiences to grasp opportunities and tackle challenges for a balanced development. The session on Asian Cities‟ Choice in a Globalization Context will be carried out on the following subjects: 1. Urban Energy and Environment The session will look into effects of urban economic growth and energy consumption on environment as well as approaches in maintaining urban economic growth with efficient energy use in a move to find a coordinated and sustainable development path that can keep balance in economic growth, energy consumption and environmental protection. The session will also talk about control of greenhouse gas emissions as well as development of clean energies and recycling economy. 2. Urban infrastructure and traffic Improvement of urban infrastructure and traffic conditions is one of the primary ways for cities to accommodate new dwellers, attract businesses and improve competitiveness. The session will discuss how to increase capital investment in infrastructures and enhance the performance of the infrastructure, how to relief traffic jam and develop efficient and convenient inner-city transport system and how to improve the role and the overall competitiveness of a city, all of which are also pressing issues for most Asian cities. 3. City Planning and Management 25 The social and economic changes have caused transformation in urban space structure and social structures. The session will discuss common rules and principles as well as differences in urban planning and management, to develop coordinated and effective urban space and harmonious social structure with innovation and scientific management with the ultimate goal of making cities comfortable, prosperous, safe, human-friendly and accommodative living spaces for human beings. 4. Population urbanization and Development of Cities Population urbanization is a must trend in social and economic development. Asian developing countries are now witnessing a massive inflow of rural residents into cities and an accelerated process of urbanization. Countries and regions should follow urbanization principles to select right paths according to their own conditions. Economic Transformation for Asia: the International Environment and Institutional Restructuring Sub-forum Principal: Prof. Min Hua Dr. Min Hua is a professor of Economics. He serves as the President of the World Economy Institute of Fudan Economics Academy, chairman of world economy department. He is also the Vice President of China World Economy Academy, one of the advisors of Policy-making Consulting Committee of the Shanghai municipal government, consultant of the Shanghai 10th Five-Year Plan and advisor of Shanghai Entrepreneurship Assessment Agency. He has long engaged in the researches in the fields of Global and Chinese economy. Sub-forum Exposition In the decades after the World War II, many economies in Asia witness rapid growth, which strengthens the economic power of Asia as a whole. However, The Asian Financial crisis in 1997 reveals the potential risk behind the prosperity that Asia can‟t play initiative role in world economic growth. The international division of “center-periphery” doesn‟t change with the transition from inter-industry trade to intra-industry trade. Conversely, it reinforces itself with the expansion and penetration of multinational corporations. US, with initiative in technology innovation, play the key momentum of world economic growth; other developed economies such as Europe and Japan, with comprehensive technology power, make major contribution to the world economic growth. Asian developing economies, with China as the representative, haven‟t 26 fostered institutions facilitating technology innovation, though they have made progressive rapid growth through processing manufacturing. The export-orientation policy expects to achieve economic development through doing by learning and spillover effect and it once proves to be effective. Nevertheless, it failed to help the economies to win again in the new round of technology competition. Meanwhile, Japan, as the leading economies in Asia, suffers from “air-core” phenomenon as the large sum outflow manufacturing. Its leading and influencing power to Asian Economy is diminishing due to its long-term recession after Asian financial crisis. As a result, the emerging economies in East Asian once benefiting from Japan now turn to US and European market for new trade channels and industry upgrade paths. Currently, the endowment and restraint for Asia are as follows: The lager population with low education is a barrier to industry reconstruction and upgrade. 1. Two-dimensional economic structure of cities and countryside with large farmer population and low urbanization leads to insufficient domestic demand. 2. Economic growth depends too much on spillover, lack of backup of technology innovation and institutional innovation. 3. The interference from government twists the market and prevents the entrepreneur from full play their power. 4. Asia economies are lack of resources, especially energy. The economic structure and endowment confine Asia to manufacturing and the shortage of resources is an obstacle of further development. Especially now, when energy products are treated as financial derivatives, the shortage of energy aggravates the financial risk. Only by full learning of the external economic situation and internal endowment and restraint can we achieve sustainable development for Asia. As the external economic situation can hardly be changed, Asia should adopt adaptive strategy by economy reform and technology innovation to realize sustainable development. For near future, it means job creation, income improving; for far future, it means education improving, human capital input and institutional innovation. 27 ⅢVoices Keynote Speeches of Shanghai Forum 2007 “Towards Sustainable Urban Futures: Urbanization in an Era of Globalization and Environmental Change” by Prof. Dr. Hans van Ginkel, Under Secretary General, United Nations, President, United Nations University “In fact, what I want to do this morning is to raise your attention for the fact that the future of human kind will be an urban future. Many people still have memories of how green pastures can be. But when you look at reality and the choice of people, people prefer to live in cities. And so we are at the moment in the situation that we can see in the next 20, 30 years, after two-thirds of world population will be living in cities. In the country like Japan, already 90% of the population is living in cities, Latin America 80%, already now. So you can see we are going to live in cities. When you look at the projects of United Nations, then you can see that another 2 billion world citizens will be added to the world population. That 2 billion, directly or indirectly, will end up in the cities of the developing countries, because the population of those cities will be doubling from 2 to 4 billion. And basically, they will come to the cities that have to release the capacities to assure so many people. So what are we going to do? And basically, what kind of cities will it be? Will it be the cities we have known them or can be guided in the process in a way that the cities will be more hospitable and more livable? I am pretty sure that in policy and in science they have not leave the sort school of disnatured trend in developments. In the U.S., less than 2% of the labor forces are working in agriculture; in the Netherlands, it‟s less than 3%. Nevertheless, the U.S. and the Netherlands is the number one and number two exporters of agricultural product in value around the world. So you can see to your own population, you can export a lot if you have to be in agriculture. Then you double basically the farmers for those who are working in services relating to farming, then maybe 5% has to live in rural the way we know it. And that‟s perhaps the perspective we have for the future. You can see in this graph that in the world population in fact just after 2000, the percentage of population in cities has become bigger than the percentage living in rural areas. When you look at China, you will see this point a little bit later. It‟s expected to be somewhere around 2020. But nevertheless, it‟s coming. And when you look at population distribution of developing and developed countries by size of urban area and year, then you can see that in the developing countries, most of the growth will take place in the cities smaller than 0.5 million inhabitants. So we always think that the major growth is in bigger cities, but rather we have to focus on the smaller ones, because there is what the growth is happening and maybe there also the issue is more manageable. When you look at the developed counties you see that in all sized degrees of cities, the numbers are much smaller and certainly also the growth is much smaller. But the same trend can be seen. I don‟t pay too much 28 attention to the fact that much growth is also expected in the group of 1 to 5 million big cities, because often then when a city shifts from 0.9 million to 1 million, then all the population of the cities all at once are counted in fatigue. So it‟s kind of missing the presentation. Now the major problem of all these is in fact the density of population is not the fact that people are living in cities, but when we have very high population densities over very far spaces we call the basic resources even clean air and drinking water are not sufficient for the population that is a mass developing in a small space. We have to think of the fact that at this moment already drinking water for Mexico cities is piping over the distance of 200 km. And these pipelines are not sufficient. So drinking water is tripped into Mexico cities and it‟s quite clear that this in the longer term is not a sustainable situation. And it is high densities where people are so crowded that we have developed concept of “Borrowed Spaces”, meaning people are living in the house which is so small that in fact they have no kitchen so they eat in the foot stalls along the street side, that the public space is being used as dinning room of the family. And in the same way you can see that the living room is kind of the public parks to city, housed karaoke or pachinko where people spend the rest of the day when they are not working. So “Borrowed Spaces” in Hong Kong are of course the solutions by increasing the multiple-used space. You have many places in Hong Kong or recently in Tokyo in fact were one of the best examples of multiple uses of space where you go in Haiti somewhere you have 52 floors, even on the ground floor allow yourself to have some clean space. So the key questions for the future will be what kind of urban cities will exist in 2030? How can we assure that these urban places are organized and managed in such a way so that the eco-resource systems of which they are part are sustained and continue to provide the inputs such as water etc. that are needed to sustain urban places? What needs to be done to develop the types of urban places that provide the basic needs of their population so that they exist in healthy environment which is in itself sustainable? And you will hear from what I will be saying that much can be done by guiding the process in such a way that you have nodes of cities which are kind of distance format but links so much by public transport that they work as from big cities. And in this way, you can segment the problem and basically you overcome the opposition between the rural and the urban. Generally, the rural is the much poorer part, and the urban is then the numinous being made that you are rather integrating to rural and urban. And I think in that sense we are going to change the policies. While I‟ll leave aside this graph which indicates where the big cities were and by the red you can see that in history big cities were often in Asia. And then in the last century, this changed a little bit, but in the last decade, Asia has kind of regained this position worldwide. When you look at the regional comparison of growth in large urban areas, then you can easily see from different tables that Asia is in fact the only continent having more than 60 percent of the world population rate. But much of the population is in cites. Then you look beyond Asia to Africa and also to Latin America you can see from this graph that less developed regions will see the growth of the urban population from 2 million in 2000 to 4 billion in 2030. So that‟s the doubling I was talking about. Well, what kind of pattern will you see? Someone has made a major study on megalopolis. This 29 first megalopolis was between Boston and Baltimore, the northeast coast of U.S. And you can just see that over the last 50 years when you look at the red spaces as where originally the urbanization was to the grey and blue spaces that basically the whole area is being urbanized nowadays and you see here the intermingling of the rural and urban, because of the process of super penetration and process of concentration of population in the rural areas. And this is not just in the U.S. When you look at the Netherlands as a country, basically the Netherlands is not really a country and more, the Netherlands is just one city for any foreigners going there will recognize this. And in fact the poor city for the continent viewer and basically it‟s the poor city for Germany and the whole European Union. And it‟s the same way Singapore is the poorest for Southeast Asia. As a consequence, you can see the grey zones that basically the urbanization spreads two-thirds of the whole county. Then you look at how you can house people? In the Netherlands, it has become the major problem discussed over the last 50 years. You have always do choice between either grouping everyone together in big centers or to let it disperse as much as possible. The policy option that was in fact accepted in the Netherlands is something in-between which is called “Clustered De-concentration”. So how can you guide the process to get this clusters which are big enough for servicing the population but not so big to get major negative consequences of overcrowding. This is the processes being guided over the last 50 years. You can see in the Netherlands that in the past we were talking about Randstad. Maybe others will say Holland city, and Holland city includes Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Haiti. But nowadays we are not just talking about Holland cities any more or Randstad. In fact, the urban area is kind of expanding to rural area. As a consequence, for planning purposes you have to plan at different levels of geographical scale. Already, planning is going on between Belgium to Germany and Netherlands for this overall urban area. There is planning for the Netherlands as a country, there is planning at a level of province and there is planning as a municipality of a city. And these plannings of different level and scale must be coordinated, and that‟s what I think is the major challenge for China in the near future as well. So how do we recognize where the urban development take place? Many in a way are still working between these municipalities and then look at sense of figures. I think this leads to comparing ample peers. They count Los Angles to be a mega city, where we never see the rural area joint the front hood as a mega city. Why not? Because the rural area and the front hood are registered as being different public administrative territorial unites and they never see this sense of figure together. Nevertheless the total area of Los Angles as a mega city is larger than the front hood and rural area together. So it‟s kind of the way in which different government in different countries do establish the territorial unites of administration. That directly influence the way in which people see where the big cities are. And in fact, insurance company is no better. So when you look at the insurance company in Munich, they already list the west of the Netherlands and also the rural area of Frankfort as mega cities. But you will never find them in scientific literature mentioned like that. In the past we could only, like you can see on this painting of Jan Verneer, map by measuring and drawing. And now we have more sophisticated ways to see what is there on the surface of the earth. They just use thermosensing and GIS and they can get excellent pictures of where the urban 30 is and then we can try to match senses of areas with the outline of the urban areas that we have found by the pictures from space. And I think in this way you can see easily when you look at the earth by night. And you look at where the light is. Well, the light is kind of great balance of numbers of people and levels of economic activity. And that‟s where the cities are. So when you look at this map, you can easily see where in South Africa is Johannesburg or Cape Town. Now you can see the Perse in Australia and Niles and that kind of things. So you can see urbanization throughout North America and the urban points in Latin America. This is the way to see where we can focus our research. And of course, when you look at aero-pictures, you can in fact make very detailed pictures of what is where. So, when you have to re-conceptualize what is urban and what is rural and how intermingle the two are and how you have to develop the urban living hood, it‟s very difficult to have a regional development plan for rural areas when you don‟t bring account the urban, because much of the younger people in the farmers families will rather be in urban types of economic activities. So when the rural comes to the urban, we have to bring the urban to the rural; otherwise we will never meet the pleasure of migration from the rural to the urban areas. So the demographic driving force helps shaping urban areas, as well as economy, transportation and local policies. I just have a map of the Netherlands and I think this type of approaches can be used in many places. What is a major characteristic for the urban is the number of job opportunities. So the darkest color here is the places where there are more than one million job opportunities for citizens within half an hour drive and within half an hour travel. Of course different countries may have different limits or different idea about time that could be involved in traveling to go to work. But at the same time, with this concentration of job opportunities, you can clearly see where the urban is, and you can see how the urban spread over geographical space over the countries and you can see basically that two-thirds of the Netherlands in dark colors is part of these large citizens. Now job opportunities can be at different time, and to make this remembered by you, I got these pictures in Abidjan that people have the job opportunities of doing laundry for commercial reasons---to earn money by doing laundry. Of course, there are jobs of jobs and they have to be recognized. When you would like to look what urban means for the economy of a country, then this map of the Netherlands indicates top positions of so-called money machines. And then you look at the companies that are located in a country, you can have the miller dress. The miller dress nowadays is so kind of precise that you can indicate the income that generated in certain square kilometer in a country. And basically, this map is the different levels of income generated in square kilometers in the country, which are very precise. You start with thermosensing and end up this miller dress which gives a very precise picture of what is going on and where. And this is not just in the developed country like the Netherlands, I‟m pretty sure that in China you can do the same. So the core challenge we have to solve is in particular environmental issue we have already mentioned like drinking water and there is also pollution by light. This map is the first map I have shown to you of how the earth looks by night. It indicates in the colors how many stars you can see during the night, because it can be solved in the light pollution in the place that you don‟t recognize the stars any more. And it‟s predicated that in 2050, in Italy it will be impossible to see the stars during the night as a consequence of light pollution. It‟s a topic not many people think about. But here in Mexico City, the author cites what I mentioned about water. You see the growth 31 of Mexico City, and here for different stages of the shrinking of the lake which was the basis for the development of the Mexico City. And you see for a large lake, till recently, no water at all, no lake at all left. I don‟t have to say too much of traffic congestion, but of course we know that in developed countries the traffic congestion as a consequence of cars. The densities of developing countries can be so much that it can be congestions of trishaws of bicycles. Other element is that when the pleasurable land becomes so big like Caracas, you build too close to the places like landslides. So when recently in Venezuela, well by recently I mean 8 years ago, there were major damages as a consequence of landslides to a large extent was because the lack of construction regulations by which too many of the houses were placed and built in places that were not sustainable and in fact dangerous, like the case for many of the Favelas. The Favelas‟ houses go up to mountain slop some times so steep that with major natural defense happening there is no way to maintain these houses in those places. One has to look at all these kinds of consequence in a systematic way. When you would like to govern cities, you know that many developments in cities nowadays are not heavy plans by the government, are not heavy as deliberate decisions but rather people doing things. And that‟s what we have to think about things, we have to bring in this concept of how you can socially organize and manage a place at different scales and levels. All people would like to have a major influence in what is happening in that direct living environment. They don‟t always accept easily what the government is decreeing, maybe somewhere in the capital city even not in the town hall of a very big city. So, how do you create a socially responsible urban society where people take interest in what is happening directly from that environment? What deeply contribute to a more systematic approach in order to guarantee good quality of life? And that means we have to accept that all policies have to be multi-sectoral, multi-layered. Layers and sectors are not always in a very consistent manner organized. So we have to bring in what is the formal government and what is informal government, like civil society and others trying to solve problems. So this kind of governing problem is the major issue to solve in order to make the future of many urban milieus sustainable and useful. And then nowadays, many people have a very general idea about urbanization more or less saying that everything becomes the same. When you look more closely, it‟s not so true. Of course, in earlier urban studies we have already developed different neighborhood concept, socially different and economically different and so on. When the urbanization is spreading in a guided process, we try to have urbanization not as a concentration process all at one point, but in a more segmented way along lines of optimized public transport like pearls on a string. Each of the nodes can have their own kind of characteristics, and they started from being different from landscape‟s point of view, from architectural point of view. The society was already there in many new town developments. We have recognized that in new town generally it‟s only sustainable and livable and interesting for people when you take an older note in the settlement pattern as a kind of starting point. So there is something being done, around which the rest of the city can be organized. So there is something coming from the past, and something added for the future. That blends into different what I would like to call urban formations, just as their geological formations are quite different. They attract in different ways different groups from cities, different economic and social groups, which I could ascertain in my studies about super-penetration of the western 32 part of the Netherlands. In the super-penetration too people always say everything becomes the same. It‟s not true. Of 128 municipalities in the western part of the country, maybe you could group them in certain different types, but they were all individually different in the way they were worked out. Now this has segmented the problem, and you can see this has in some ways already developed in practice. At the left bottom of the figure, you see Tokyo. Tokyo basically started from one center, but now when you look at Tokyo mega city with a certain million inhabitants, there are many such centers developed overtime. But it is a fairly concentrated city. When you look at the left upper site, you see what I would like to call “Holland City”, the western urbanized part of the Netherlands, which houses seven million people. But when you go there, you see green everywhere. That‟s because the whole problem has been addressed by having different notes. Although strong concentrated compact cities approaches around those notes, in-between a very strong policy protecting the green not as pines of artificial planting trees but just maintaining the agricultural land. So you get the combination of the rural and the urban in a positive manner. In the rural area in the right upper side, it‟s basically the same. As we are now here in Shanghai, I thought it was nice to have examples of the Pearl River Delta city. The pearl of the delta city is in fact Hong Kong, Macao, Guangzhou and altogether that we never experience them and perceive them as one city because they are not the same administrative regions. But I don‟t understand why Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands can discuss the joint development of the urban in northwest Europe. You can have specific administrative regions, but nevertheless, we could have a total plan for the 40 million people that live in the Pearl River Delta and developed as one city. And you see this will not be difficult when you just build bridges instead of barriers between Hong Kong and Macao. All at once, it will start to function as one city. This is not special because in the west of the Netherlands, we made Amsterdam after the flooding of the early 50s, and nowadays it becomes clear that Amsterdam and Rotterdam are basically one port. They are the port of northwest Europe. Now what I said about these formations is just to help you remind that this could be true. You have from one side the old cities and many of European cities now in this middle-aged form but still recognizable. But also you have new things which are apartments looking down on you. And different people will be attracted by different activities. In Tokyo you see that you have the combination of the both. Generally, we take Tokyo as a low-rise city because of the earthquakes. But recently, we have seen more and more skyscrapers coming also for residential purposes. And in China we see we are somewhere on the crossroads. Are we going to restore or renovate the old-built constructions or are we just making the new ones very big and tall or a combination? It‟s a choice. When many people rather like cities where children can play outside while parents and neighbors can have an eye on what they are doing and make sure they are not making too many risks, others might not. When you look at cities like Tokyo, you will see different things. This is a planned “Glass City” in the Netherlands. At the front site, you will see the green houses, then you see the old water, then you see big developments and also skyscrapers for residential purposes. It‟s a combination. And I think rather there to think in the opposition one against the other, the rural against the urban, we have to think about integrated planning of the agricultural of the rural, the urban and the urban economic activities. This is kind of a dream. But people are always thinking 33 and this is rather more a picture than would belong in Sky Trick that type of movies. But it‟s for one million people in just one kilometer. That‟s possibility. In the Netherlands, where we have come to the conclusion, that we are not able any more by dams to prevent flooding at all times. We are already developing architecture that kind of designing what they call “Floating Cities”. So normally, the city is on the ground, but when there is a flood, the whole thing floats. So you come back to the Southeast Asian concept known of the “pool houses” and that type of thing. And of course you can have them in a more conventional way like in this case or you can have them in a very futuristic way. Now I would like to give these pictures so that everyone could enjoy also something facial. Thank you very much!” China’s Over-liquidities in the Global Context by Zhu Min: Vice President, Bank of China “Thank you Mr. Chairman, thank you Madam, Doctor Cai of Fudan University for inviting me to come back. I graduated from Fudan University 25 years ago, then taught here for few year, so it is indeed a great honor to come back to Fudan to this very distinguished Forum and speak to this very distinguished audience. I was a little confused as to what kind of language I should use because as a Chinese in China, I was advised to speak English. To compromise both sides, I did a Chinese PPT, but I will speak English. I seriously apologize to non-English speakers for listening, and for non-Chinese readers for reading. I hope in this way to compromise a little bit this kind of language conflict. I will talk today about China‟s over-liquidities in the global context, the over liquidities that have become such a hot issue in recent China and attracted a lot attention everywhere. I will show that it is not only a global issue, and also show the possible consequences that could appear. So first I‟ll talk about over-liquidities and China‟s over-liquidity issues, and then I‟ll talk about the relationship 34 between the global liquidity and China‟s over-liquidity, and then I‟ll come to some very, very simple summaries. First of all let‟s talk about the global liquidities. If you look at the liquidities, the first thing of all you‟re looking for is the interest rate. From this chart you can see it is very clear that the lowest rate appears in the past 25 years. In all the major countries – U.S., U.K, Germany and Europe – the interest rate is always very low. If you‟re looking for the real interest rates the rates are still very, very low. Obviously because with low interest rates, the central bank has a lot of demand for money and active investments, putting a lot of money into the system. The commercial rates are also very low. It‟s very interesting if we compare the commercial rates, ten years overview and three years overview, you will see the rates have almost gone to zero in the past eighteen, twenty-four months, with long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates almost the same. Actually we have a very flat yield curve, and almost an increased yield curve in the past few months. This is a very, very unique situation, because long-term interest is also very, very low. In the commercial area you will see, compared with standard treasury views, the BBD – the spreads – of BAA and AAA all commercial paper spreads. Also on downsize you will see that. So that means the risks and interest rates act as a convergence to a very low level. So this is a very interesting phenomenon in roughly the past twenty-four months. One important consequence, and I can tell you I was very surprised: in this slide you can see that the GDP growth in the past six years is roughly 5.25 to 5.6 percent, but the money is rising up to 20 and 25 percent. There is so much money everywhere in the system. This is an amazing chart. If you‟re looking for more specific situations, in the United States, roughly from 1981 to 1990, twenty years ago, the M1 – the ratio to GDP – is roughly 27.6 percent. Today it‟s 53 percent, almost a 75 percent increase. In Europe, roughly in 1991 to 1997, the ratio was only 21.4 percent. In Japan things are even worse. I‟m sorry to my chairman, but the numbers tell us in 1981 to 1990 the average M1 to GDP ratio is 26.5 percent. Today it‟s 75 percent – almost three times higher. This is not an absolute number, this is the ratio of money to GDP. This means the money growth is much faster than GDP growth. At the end of the day, there is a lot of money in the system today. Today in Japan, for example, money in the system is three times as much as the money in the system twenty years ago. Obviously, this is because money can do three things: promote production; inflation; and assets and financial sectors. We can see exactly what happens. If we‟re looking at the banking sectors, from 1990 to 1995, the banking growth is only 4.5 percent, the next five years is 5.3 percent, and 2000 to today it‟s 14.3 percent. So banking assets are greatly inflated, by three times are much as in the previous ten years. The same change is happening on a global scale: 25 percent to 55 percent. If you‟re looking at the United States, banking assets increased from 50 percent in 1990 to now roughly 80 percent. The same thing has happened on the bonds market. The global bonds market cap increased since 1990, roughly you can see a 71 percent to 100 percent increase. So the bonds market is growing very fast. If you‟re looking at the stock market, the global market cap increased from 40 percent in 1990, to today‟s 100 percent. So you will see that low interest rates have fuelled the money pumping through the system, and boosted all the financial assets in three major areas: banking 35 assets, the bonds market, and the stock market. And the numbers are astounding and amazing. In the United States this started in the Alan Greenspan period. He is called the great regulator of the central bank. During this period US GDP increased by 2.6 percent. Loans increased by 359 percent. And the money supplied increased by 335 percent. At the end of the day obviously the wealth has increased 365 percent, and stocks have increased 554 percent. The money has to go somewhere. So this is a typical situation. We see over-liquidity and you see the price of assets inflating. I did an interesting calculation that also surprised myself. I realized the global GDP 10 percent will account for only 1 percent of global liquidity. Security bonds account for 142 global GDP and account for 13 percent global liquidity, because security bonds can turn into cash immediately, over seconds. The most important part is derivative products, account for 800 percent of global GDP today, account 75 percent of global liquidity. This is an amazing, astounding chart. I think this chart tells us a few things. Number one, the definition of liquidity changed dramatically. Ten, fifteen years ago we talk about liquidity, money in the system as M0, M1, M2, the Euro, M3. Ten, fifteen years ago we were talking about liquidity policy, the policies of the central banks, and calling it relative equality through interest rates. But if you look in the charts you will see that the total M0 only accounts for 11 percent of the liquidity of the world. And so liquidity comes from where? The liquidity of the financial market. I think this is a very important and fundamental change. Liquidity is no longer number one in the hands of the central bank. Central banks can still control part of the liquidity through interest rates, M0, M2, but only a small portion. The world has changed, shifted dramatically. The major part of the change came from the commercial financial markets. Because today, everything can change form and turn, any time, over seconds. A ten-year long-term loan over minutes can be bonds, over minutes can be cash. So the derivative market becomes so powerful, it is the financial market dominating liquidity. I think this is absolutely an important feature of today‟s liquidity issues. Now let‟s talk about China. China‟s interest rates are very low, compared with the US and Europe. But China has also been in the lowest interest rate categories for the past twenty years. Looking at the US, top is lending rates, below is deposit rates. But lending rates have been low in the past twenty years, and deposit rates also among the lowest in the past twenty years. So we still have very low interest rates, and obviously because of low interest there‟s a strong demand for investment activities. And with the GDP growth rates, you can see the M2 and M1 grow very strongly, always over the GDP growth rates. In the past five years, you can see even more clearly, US GDP growth is roughly 9 to 11 percent, but the rate the money rises is always over 16 to 19 percent, so there‟s a lot of money. However, in China things are slightly different. Because China has a trade surplus, we have a lot of reserves, and we‟ve used a lot of base monies. In the year 2000, the foreign exchange account for RMB was roughly 14 percent of GDP. Today it is 50 percent. This is a major caution of 36 over-liquidity in the system. A very Chinese feature. Because of low interest rates, and strong money supplies, it‟s almost the same thing: the banking assets have increased dramatically. Banking assets have doubled in the past five years. We expect to see another double in the next five years, if the system remains the same. Meanwhile, another Chinese feature that is very strong is deposit. A lot of money becomes household deposit and is put back in the bank. Deposit rates today are roughly 17 trillion RMB, with growth rates of 16-18 percent in the past few years. Because of over-liquidity issues, in the banking systems we also have roughly 11 trillion RMB idle in the system, roughly 50 percent of the GDP. So this is a lot of money in the system. The Central Bank is trying very hard to try and control this over-liquidity, to hedge the foreign exchange, to try and stabilize the monies. The Central Bank has increased interest rates, and reserve rates especially, several times in the past six to nine months. And up to today the Central Bank has raised the reserve rate 200 base points, stabilizing growth at roughly 690 billion RMB, and also issued commercial papers. Central Bank issued this year 2.3 trillion RMB promotional papers, and because of the 1.3 trillion matured papers to date, so will really get back roughly 1 trillion RMB of liquidities. So in this first six months, by issuing papers and raising the reserve and interest rates, the Central Bank has tried to get back roughly 1.8 trillion RMB from the banking system. This is an amazing operation. It‟s not an easy thing to do. Historically and globally I‟ve never seen such a dramatic undertaking before. So interest rates have increased a little bit, and the markets have changed. I realized that the base money, compared with the end of last year, is actually smaller. Today it‟s roughly 7 trillion, when compared with 7.78 trillion in the system at the end of last year. Given the kind of growth, that the base money is downsized is a great thing to show the Central Bank has worked very hard. Also in the commercial banking system the surplus of funds dropped from 8.07 trillion to 7.71 trillion RMB, so is also downsizing. You see this is an effort for the Central Bank, and as a consequence we do see some positive results from the Central Bank‟s stabilizing operations. But we still see a lot of money. Particularly a lot of money going to the stock market. The money goes to the market roughly in twelve-month periods. Roughly 1.2 trillion is going into the stock market. Roughly 500 billion though funds, and 700 billion through household. Today the liquidity in the stock market, the money from household deposit in the stock market is huge – roughly 1 trillion – but a lot of it is in the hands of the household. This is a very interesting, and particularly Chinese, characteristic. On the one hand, we see the Central Bank has worked very hard trying to stabilize these money issues, and has had some impact. But meanwhile, we still see a lot of money floating around, especially in the stock market, because the household has converted a lot of their long-term deposits into short-term ones. This chart shows how compared with roughly a year ago you will see the deposit actually drops, and the financial institute deposits actually increase. And the demand upon the deposits actually increased from 33.8 percent to 37 percent. This is very interesting. If you look at the whole thing, 37 in China number one is obviously over-liquidity, because low interest rates and money supplied too strong. There‟s a lot of money in the system, and the Central Bank has worked very hard to try and stabilize the system. Yes, it‟s worked, but meanwhile there‟s still a lot of money left in the system, particularly moving into the stock market. Why? Because the household has changed its behavior. There were 18 trillion household savings in existence. And today the owners have realized they can actually make more money if they put them into the stock market. That‟s the main reason for the over-liquidity in China today: household behavior has changed. This is a completely new phenomenon in China today. There are some clear trends. In the first quarter, M2 growth rates: 17.3. M1 growth rates: 19.8. It‟s a clear trend of the household shifting away from long-term deposits to short-term. That means the status they can invest in the financial market every second. What‟s the linkage between the two things? It seems very clear there are global imbalances. Because people are very familiar with this issue, I‟m not going to bother you with those charts. But I think what‟s very interesting is that the concentration of those imbalances is becoming bigger and bigger today. In 1980, the five major global economies had deficits accounting for 0.5 percent of GDP and accounting for 26 percent of global deficits. Today, 25 years later, the five major economies have deficits accounting for 82 percent of the global deficits, and only 2.3 percent of global GDP. The size increased dramatically; the concentration increased dramatically. Also, on the surplus side, 25 years ago the five major economies in terms of surplus accounted for 0.7 percent of the global GDP, and 70 percent of global surplus. And those have also jumped on. This is very interesting, because it puts the world into two poles. The US, in particular, on one side with Europe; and China and Asia. Very interestingly, and very clearly, it seems to me that over-liquidity started in the US and the west in the late-1990s. Because of relaxed monetary policy, a lot of money in the system has generated huge demands. These have in turn generated a huge demand for imports. And through globalization China has become a major exporter. That China has become a major exporter is not only good for China itself, but also for the whole region. This is the reason why China has a lot of trade surplus. Obviously the huge over-liquidity in China is also a consequence of the Chinese growth model, over-emphasizing exports and investments. When we go through the whole thing, it seems to me we can derive a few conclusions. Number one, over-liquidity is a global phenomenon, resulting from relaxed monetary policy in the past ten years. Number two, China also has serious over-liquidity issues. Number three, the Chinese over-liquidity issue is the consequence of a global over-liquidity, particularly the consequence of relaxed monetary policy in the west – namely the US, Japan and Europe – and through the train of free trade. Number four, we talk about over-liquidity but the definitions of this nature of over-liquidity are changing dramatically. It‟s no longer the same thing as when we talk about M0 and M1. Number five, over-liquidity is driven by the financial market. In China this is driven by the household, and the behavior change of savers. This is a very, very important issue. Over-liquidity today does have different meanings and implications compared with ten or fifteen 38 years ago. Number six, obviously where we have over-liquidity we will see asset prices inflating. But whether or not this is a bubble we have to be very careful, because it depends on economic growth. So today, many people are talking about bubbles, but the definitions for me are still vague, because it depends on the nature of growth. The last point, but also important: given the nature of change of over-liquidities, the policies that are driving against over-liquidity should be very different when compared with previous ones. Let me give you a few charts to support this. I think I have demonstrated the first five points. Now let me give you some points to illustrate number six. If you see the stock market, it is amazing that last year it reached a peak. The year 2000 was a peak, but then there was the IT bubble and it crashed and was dramatically downsized. But last year it reached a peak again. Meanwhile you see the commodity market prices have jumped dramatically. It was very low and stable from the 1950s to 70s. Then the Nixon shock in 1972 and the „79, „82 oil shock increased the price. But then recently there‟s been a sudden dramatic rise. Obviously demand has played an important role, but the most important thing is that everybody does believe in the financial market and there‟s too much money in the system. Is this a bubble? Yes, or no, or maybe: the key issue is growth. This is particularly important for China, so I don‟t want to draw any early conclusions. We did a chart comparing growth and employment. As long as we have strong growth and strong employment you will be able to support the income wealth creations, you will be able to absorb and balance a certain amount of over-liquidity. Things should be manageable. I won‟t say things will be fine, but they should be manageable. But if there are low growth rates, or low employment rates, then it can be very, very difficult to handle. I think that‟s all I can say, and would like to share with you. Thank you very much.” 39 The Rise of China and the Implications of the Particular Phenomenon in Building an Asian Community. By Vishakha N. Desai, President of Asia Society, U.S.A. “Thank you very much for that very generous introduction. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it‟s a great pleasure and honor for me to be here with you this morning to talk about the rise of China and the implications of this particular phenomenon in building an Asian community. I come to this topic from a variety of perspectives, but one thing I‟m not, as you already gathered, is an economist. So what I want to talk about is really from the perspective of a leader of an institution that is committed to building partnerships between and among Asians and Americans to create a shared future, as well as as an Asian-American, an American of Asian origin, who is particularly keen to look at how this region develops and its implications to the world. Last but not least, I also come to this topic as a long-time student of Chinese history and art, with an understanding of how China and India have interacted over some time. So you‟ll see where I‟m going to go with this topic. Professor Spence has already talked about the phenomenon of the Rise of China, and now, India. We know this as a fundamental characteristic of global significance, because for the first time we have an unprecedented situation of the two most populous nations in the world, two ancient civilizations in the world, two modern nations in the world, and at the same time, two nations that also have roles that are going to change the characteristics of global power. While many of the facts are well known, we can imagine that indeed by the year 2050, more than 50% of the world‟s GDP will most likely come from this part of the world, more than 50% of the population will come from this part of the world. The lesser known and perhaps quantifiable fact is that also there is a sense of confidence in the region, especially in China and India, that is also unprecedented after some 200 to 250 years of decline and colonization. This particular kind of confidence is very well known in terms of polling data that we see: as was in fact collected by the Asia Society, my own organization, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. We suggest that in China, people already feel that they are number two, and that probably in the next 30 years or so they can become number one. In India, they feel they are already number two, although I have to say that the majority of the world doesn‟t think so, but Indians do. But Indians do not think they‟ll become number one, because they think that the United States will remain as number one in the world. The important point is that both of these countries are beginning to play an active role in the Asia-Pacific community. Of course China is much further ahead than India in this particular aspect. It is very well known that China has a very well-coordinated approach to southeast Asia and other parts of the Asian community, or at least the Asian region, both in terms of trade, geo-political, as well as in terms of its soft power, by establishment of Chinese language institutes as well as education opportunities for southeast Asian students in China. India, on the other hand, when it comes to the region still has an aspirational quality of playing the role – with the look-east policy 40 of the former government notwithstanding – but perhaps still has some way to go. The point is that both these countries are rising. China, of course, ahead of India, and both of them has a sense of playing a broader role in the region. So when we talk about the implications of building an Asian community, I think it is fair to just briefly pause and think about what we mean by the word “community”. Broadly defined, we say that this has to do with harmonious living, shared values, interdependent economic situation, and perhaps also a way of living that is without the presence of a single, hegemonic power. What are the prospects for creating this kind of community, as we go forward? As a historian I always look to the past and I realize that I am not in the bad company, because in fact as Chairman Mao used to say “history answers the present”. And I just want to give you a quick tour of two times in previous occasions, previous centuries where there was an opportunity, or some indication, of this notion of an interdependent, value-based community. The first is 1907 – exactly a hundred years ago. A kind of movement led by intellectuals, philosophers and scholars from India and China who came together to imagine an Asian community, to say Asia can be one. At that point, their particular idea was based on the historical fact that indeed there was a shared interconnection in the earlier days – of course with Buddhism, as well as with trade – and that it was possible to create this kind of world. They were also looking at this idea from the perspective of anti-imperialism, as well as anti-colonialism. Why did it not take hold? I believe that it did not take hold because in fact this intellectual idea had a philosophical underpinning, but it did not have the economic or geo-political underpinning at that time to take hold. The fact that they were looking into the past, that particular past was another period in the history of Asian countries, and that was the period from 6th to 8th century, the golden age of the Silk Road, Tang Dynasty in China, end of Gupta Dynasty in India, a period that really saw the flowering of all levels of interconnections in Asia. What I mean by this is that of course Buddhism is well known. We know that the Tang Emperors were looking to Indian Buddhist priests. We know about Xuan Zhuang who went to India, but a lesser-known fact is the presence of Indian mathematicians and Chinese scholars. A lesser-known fact is also that of India‟s presence in Southeast Asia, with the beginning of the Hindu-Buddhism kingdoms of Indonesia, as well as Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma, or Myanmar. Similarly, the Tang Dynasty also, of course, is the period when you had tremendous interactions between Nara Japan, Sina, Korea, as well as direct interconnections between China and India. At this point, you also have this situation where power is not based on the forced hegemonic tendencies of any one country. This is also the time where three elements of building the community are all present. That has to do with trade or commerce; religious values; people-to-people connections, royal interactions that also get to political interactions. I think that this particular point in time at least suggests that it is possible to imagine this kind of an Asian community again today. The question is, can we do it? Many, many scholars today have said that in fact you can‟t even talk about the idea of an Asian community because Asia‟s never been one. One of the points about that particular statement is the fact that the only time that Asia has not had interdependence is after the presence of western powers in Asia. Nayan Chanda – a great writer and journalist now at the Global Institute at Yale – has just published a book called „Bound Together‟. He talks about the interdependence of trade in the Asia-Pacific region prior to the arrival of the Western powers, and 41 he points out that this in fact was a model where no one country sought to have a competitive edge or to be number one in the region, and it allowed for a much greater sense of interaction between the communities as late as circa 1500. So where do we go from here? I think that we have an opportunity to re-vision that kind of an Asian community. I am indeed an idealist but I realize that we have to be practical. We have to recognize what the barriers are to creating such a community, because if we don‟t recognize that we can‟t actually address them. It‟s clear in these three characteristics that I have just mentioned – economic, political, cultural and people-to-people connections – that there is a growing trade interdependence in the region. Of course we know that today China and India‟s trade is growing at an exponential rate. China‟s trade with Japan already is in fact larger than Japan‟s trade with the United States, and similarly we know that there is in fact much greater interconnection of China‟s trade with the regions of Southeast Asia. So trade can at least help, but is it automatically followed by a political interconnection? Here we have to recognize that there are many barriers, not the least of which are the recent histories. And in this part of the world, history matters, and these histories are not forgotten as quickly, perhaps, as we might think in the United States. We also recognize that this recent history is one kind of history we can remember, but we can also go back to five hundred years ago, a thousand years ago, it could also be another kind of history. Indeed, in order for the region to work, some of the political issues will have to be addressed, and how we would do that is going to be a crucial part of where we go from here. Even without addressing political issues, we can also come back to mutual trust and shared values. So how do we get there? I think this is the time for a new kind of leadership, leadership in the region and also leadership in the United States that can foster this idea of transcending history, learning from history but going beyond it. I just want to remind you that this was exactly what Chairman Mao and Nixon did: they went beyond the reality of their time to create a new kind of history. It is that kind of a profound new vision that we need to think about to create a new Asian community in which there isn‟t a competition in terms of seeking number one status, but really a presence of multiple players, especially China and India that actually can create what the Shanghai Forum is trying to talk about, and that has to do with a more harmonious society within the Asia Pacific region in which the regions of Southeast Asia as well as East Asia can begin to learn about each other. I was just recently talking to Professor Dingli Shen, who is here at Fudan, and we were just noticing that how in the last fifty years almost all our contact with one another has been based in the United States, and it‟s reflected even in the way the flights are. There are more than 20 flights from Shanghai to the United States, but trying to go from Shanghai to Mumbai is not so easy. I think that as we go into the future, we also have to acknowledge that America‟s role may not be the kind of central role it has played in the past fifty years. It might be replaced by not a singular power, but multiple powers, including Japan, coming together to really create a new sense of value and a new sense of community. I hope that this brief presentation gives you some sense of what we can achieve if we have the will, and it‟s that will that we need to have today. Economic interdependence alone will not get us there. 42 Thank you very much.” 43 Ⅳ Activities Special Report on China’s Macro-economy A “Report on China‟s Macro-economy” was held by Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee in Guanghua Building, Fudan University. Illuminating speeches were delivered by Prof. Ruyin Hu, Director of Shanghai Stock Exchange Research Center, Prof. Youwen Zhang from the Economy Research Institute of China‟s Academy of Social Sciences, Comments were given by Prof. Zhigang Yuan, Din of the School of Economics, Fudan University, Xing-min Yin, Vice Director of the Socialist Market- oriented Economy Research Center, Fudan University. The Report was hosted by Prof. Lei Shi from the Economic School of Fudan University.  Prof. Ru-yin Hu, Director of the Research Center of Shanghai Security Exchange Famous young economist of China, with impressive achievements in Industry Organization, Modern Company Theory, Modern Finance Market and New-policy Economics; Director of Shanghai Stock Exchange Research Center since 1997; The Expert for Decision and Advice of Shanghai City Government, Standing Director of the Shanghai International Finance Research Center, Committee Member of the Managing and Academic Committee, Shanghai Institute of Law and Economy, Academic Committee Member of the Center for New Political Economy, Fudan University. The Micro-foundation and Transmission Mechanism of Assets Inflation  China's economy has been booming in recent years, but there still remain too many financial regulations, which limit the space for investments. The two main problems brought about by excessive liquidity – excess of money and a lack of investment opportunities – have in turn given rise to a series of new social issues. For example, a sharp rise in real estate prices, caused mainly by the bullish stock market, a soaring of product prices and an inflation in capital prices all lead directly to the increase of the income differential. The arising of these problems has created a pressing need for reform of the social security system. We can see that China has made great achievements in developing its market from the high savings rate, the 44 rising foreign exchange reserve, the growing liquidity and the trade surplus. However, in many aspects we have not yet done as well as we ought to. We therefore draw the conclusion that we should develop the international capital market, and deepen our reform, which includes developing a Shanghai Stock Exchange and establishing a multi-leveled market. Thus, greater liberalization of domestic finance will be able to provide a larger and more sustainable space for domestic financial investments.  Prof. You-wen Zhang: Institute of World Economy, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Head of the World Economy and Politics Institute, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Head of the World Economy Institute, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Managing Director of Chinese Society World Economy; Chairman of Shanghai Society of World Economy; Vice Chairman of Chinese Society of American Economy; Editor in Chief of “ World Economy Study”; Decision-making and consultation research expert in Shanghai Municipal Government; Member of the Consultation Group of the Finance and Economy Committee in Shanghai People‟s Congress; Counselor of Shanghai Foreign Capital Center, Shanghai Overseas Investment Center, and Shanghai Municipal Foreign Affairs Office. His main research domain is the World Economic Theory and China‟s Opening-up Strategy. China‟s Macro-economic Situation in an Open Economy In advancing the development level of China‟s increasingly open economy, and increasing the influence of China‟s economic growth, we have different tasks in the short and long run. As China‟s foreign investment is rising in importance, we should consider the long-term influence cast by China on the world. When the opening to the outside world is in a balanced condition, we can see that excessive liquidity is affected by many international factors, such as the trade surplus, and the entry of capital and international hot money into the stock market and the real estate market. The continuing development of the opening-up economy also needs to become sustainable. Besides, the rising of China‟s international position presents new problems to us, including the 45 so-called „China-threatening‟ and „China-responsibility‟ arguments, which arose in the political field during the development of the open-up economy. The reason why our country has set the target of building a harmonious world is that China‟s economic development has started to influence the international system. China needs to have its say in the political and strategic fields, which are the essence of the political layout of the harmonious world we are striving to build.  Prof. Zhigang Yuan: Dean of the Economics School, Fudan University Prof. Yuan‟s research ranges across many fields within economics and includes work on macro-economics, financial markets, theory of non-Walrasian equilibrium, unemployment and social security. His publication “Non- Walrasian General Equilibrium Theory and Its Application on China‟s Economy” received the 1997 Sun Yefang Award – China‟s top award for work of scholarship in Economics. Yuan‟s many other papers and publications have also been merited on numerous occasions. He has received first, second and third prizes at the Shanghai Social Philosophy Awards, and second prize from the Social Cultural Education Scholarship Awards. His research has also been honored with first prize from the Chinese Labor Society. The Surge in Capital Price and the Dual Excessive Liquidity in China‟s Macro-economy. China is strong in trading, but less strong in finance. The great boost of China‟s assets price has two causes, one being the impact on the basic level, the other being the fast growth of China‟s labor productivity. The great increase in real estate prices has been caused on the one hand by the limited providing ability and on the other by the expectancy effect. The fact that savings deposits in China are too high, coupled with the rise of enterprise savings, proves that our social distribution favors the increase of capital amount and the decrease of work income. Nowadays, the main features of China‟s macro-economy include the change in population age, the growth of foreign exchange reserves, and the rising of the competitive market commodity prices. So we have drawn the conclusion that in order to increase the income of our people, we need further 46 systematic reform and we should eliminate liquidity, and give the market more control over the economy. In this way, China‟s Economy will be even better. Discussion and Debate Speakers： Prof. Jun Zhang, Director for China Center for Economic Studies (CCES), Fudan University Prof. Hongzhong Liu, Chairman of Department of International Finance, Fudan University Prof. Xingmin Ying, Deputy Director for China Center for Economic Studies (CCES), Fudan University CPI Index Fluctuation and Monetary Inflation Expectancy Prof. Jun Zhang: Under the current situation, inflation needs a certain stimulus to become real. This fuse could be an external variant, or also a fluctuation - which we can call “corn fluctuation” - that will lead to price change in our domestic food market. But more important, I believe the institutionalization of monetary inflation and the prosperity of the assets industry, as well as the excessive liquidity caused by such prosperity are quite inter-related. Prof. Xingmin Yin: As we know, all monetary inflation is a currency phenomenon; indeed, there is still ample evidence of this. In 2007, the newly increased currency supply for the whole year of 2007 was released during January to April: that is monetary inflation. Also we found the interest rate is also increasing, and there have been 5 increases already. In modern global macro-economics, there is no precedent of this: increasing the currency supply on the one hand, while increasing the interest rate on the other. This is a new phenomenon of the Chinese economy. The Prosperity of Capital Market and the Danger of Excessive Liquidity Prof. Jun Zhang: Recent changes in international payments balance have led to an increased expectation of the RMB‟s appreciation. Such anticipation has drawn large amounts of capital into China. This foreign capital went into assets, so our real estate market began to heat up in 2003, and has become even more intense since 2005. Since then our stock market has entered into a transitory phase of development . Prof. Hongzhong Liu: First of all, we need to cut our foreign exchange reserve by efforts. Second, the Central Bank‟s currency policy needs to curb investors‟ expectations of inflation, which is very important, because once the expectation is forged, there will be a tightening of money supply real tightening - and that will be serious trouble. That will actually depend on how the interest rate changes. Third, we need to lessen people‟s enthusiasm for the assets market. Once there are bubbles in the real estate market, large amounts of non-performing assets would go into the market, and if the banking system became frail, economic crisis and financial crisis would be 47 awaiting. Prof. Xingmin Yin: China‟s economic growth will sustain in the near future. The investment drive will not change for a relatively long time. No matter whether we want it or not, no matter how we talk about it, this is a real issue. We must acknowledge that this is the nature of economic growth. We can not compare China with America, or with Germany, because it‟s unfair to compare countries with GDP per capita of USD 30,000 with our USD 2000. Furthermore, our economy has thus far been driven by investment, and this is how it should be. The Open Economy and the Responsibilities of Big Power Prof. Jun Zhang: “China is a big power, but China‟s economic performance on the macro-level is quite like that of an opened-up small country.” Prof. Hongzhong Liu: “Trade and non-trade is at the core of the issue of trade surplus. We talk of trade all the time, but most of such talk is unfeasible. Many of our goods can not be traded. For example, although eggs are cheap in China, would people take a flight to China in order to eat an egg? That is impossible. The issue of trade and non-trade needs our attention. When the internal effects of a country become relatively mature, and the real estate and automobile industries also become mature, what effect that will have on the exchange rate still remains to be observed.” Prof. Xingmin Yin: “It is due time for us to lead the world. We are not talking of shoe-burning in one country and claiming food quality problems in another. During the process of opening up to the outside world, we need to adjust our mindset gradually so that we can emerge into the world community in a more positive way.” ⅤLearning from Others About Davos: Report on the Functioning System of World Economic Forum R&D Sector, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee As the highest level of non-official international economic table-talk, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has wide influence across the globe. As a result, program officers of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee conducted research on the WEF at its “Summer Davos” meeting in Dalian, with the aim of learning from the experience and gathering reference points for a better organization and preparation of Shanghai Forum. 1、 Characteristics and features of WEF  Independent, Non Profit-making International Organization WEF is an independent international organization devoted to gathering leaders of all fields to conduct cooperation and set global, regional and professional topics for discussion in order to improve the world‟s condition. WEF was originated in 1971 from the “European Management Seminar” initiated by Prof. Klaus Schwab of Geneva Business Institute, and the present Chairman of the WEF. In 1970, the young Prof. Klaus Schwab of Swiss Business School, recently graduated 48 from Harvard University, suggested that European entrepreneurs conduct a non-official meeting to face the challenges of the international market and competition, make development strategies and discuss management methods. His suggestion was welcomed by the then-European Community Committee and European Entrepreneur Union/Association. In January 1971, more than 400 entrepreneurs and scholars participated in the first WEF. With the expansion of its influence on the globe, a system of membership was adopted five years later by the WEF. In 1987, its “European Management Seminar” was renamed as the “World Economic Forum”. The annual Forum was held in the small Swiss town of Davos every late January to early February, from which it takes its name. Its headquarters are in Geneva of Switzerland, and its mission is to“Make a Better World” and become the “Propeller of Global Common Interest”. The Forum is a non profit-making neutral organization and does not interfere in any political, party or national conflict. Abundant Sponsoring/Sponsorship After 34 years of development, the WEF is still increasing its momentum. Besides the quality and influence of the Forum per se, the commercial operation of each conference constitutes a prelude to its operation. As a major global forum, prospective participants first need to submit a membership fee to join. The membership fee for ordinary companies is USD 12,500 per year, and USD 15,000 for banks. Therefore, the membership fees alone of its more than 1000 members add up to millions of dollars, in addition to the many other items like cars, computers and even venues renting sponsored by the WEF‟s cooperation partners. Year Total income Membership Fee Conference Fee Sponsoring of Cooperation Partners 2002/ 2003 2003/ 2004 2004/ 2005 2005/ 2006 2006/ 2007 66,454,727 74,058,911 83,336,839 104,766,543 114,574,874 25,530,325 25,137,257 26,546,382 21,465,398 20,543,108 20,824,213 26,410,294 27,063,138 27,763,874 30,160,303 17,390,452 24,552,385 31,035,927 44,668,943 50,881,934 Currency: Swiss Franc *Resource: WEF Annual Report 2006-2007  High Ranking Delegates The participants of WEF are mainly governmental and commercial high-ranking leaders, outstanding entrepreneurs and renowned experts from all around the world. Its aim is to explore and discuss the problems of the world economy and improve international cooperation and communication. 49 2007 World Economic Forum Participants Component 10% 41% 49% Public Figures Business Leaders NGOs * Resource: WEF Annual Report 2006-2007 With the changing international situation, the topics of WEF gradually extended outside of economic fields and many bilateral and regional issues came onto the table as well. During the recent decades, the major issues concerning politics, military affairs, security and society of the world have been discussed and fully rendered at the Forum.  Extensive International Cooperation With the rise of its influence, and of the caliber of its participants, WEF has been recognized as the “highest-level non-official table-talk of the world economy”, and is one of the most important forces in gathering the world‟s government leaders, entrepreneurs and grassroots and social groups leaders to conduct world economy related discussions. People even compare it to the “United Nations of Economics”, bringing great fame to the small town of Davos. Every year, the WEF co-hosts a variety of international economic seminars with the governments or companies of many countries. At the core of the Forum are its members and cooperation partners. The Forum now has more than 1000 members, all of whom are renowned companies and enterprises. The cooperation partners are those organizations and enterprises that have greater ties with, contributions to, and benefits from the Forum, and who are selected by the Forum from its members. Besides this, the Forum also handles a variety of membership organizations in specific fields like politics, economy, culture, religion, media and academia.  Autonomous Academic Research Power and Influence Since 1979, the World Economic Forum has been issuing an annual “Global Competitiveness Report”. The Report gives a thorough examination of each country‟s competitiveness, including their innovation capacity, governmental management, direct foreign investment, trade performance, etc. the Report also gives rankings of each country‟s international competitiveness and related statistics, as well as survey results of senior industrial and commercial managers. Other than this, the Report contains regional and feature reports, like the Africa competitiveness report, Lisbon Remark, and Global Information Technology Report. The Report also suggests economic strategies and investment tools, receiving wider attention ever than others. 50 In 2006, the WEF set up agencies in Beijing and New York. 2、Influential Activities Hosted by WEF  Annual Conference: Davos Forum The most influential activity of WEF is the annual conference held every January at Davos, Switzerland. Each annual conference invites around 2,500 guests from around the world, including CEOs and Chairpersons of its membership companies, government leaders, famed experts in educational and academic fields, media icons and religious figures. The number of state leaders present at the annual meeting every year exceeds 20, including President of USA, UN General-Secretary, German Chancellor, UK Prime Minister, French President etc. “Davos Forum” chiefly discusses global hot issues to draft global, industry and regional agendas for its members.  Regional Summit In addition to the annual meeting, the Forum also hosts regional summits in different regions of the world. Regional Summits mainly discuss regional topics that have global impact, usually the scale of participants is around 500 to 800. There are mainly 7 regional summits, namely, China Business Summit, World Economic Forum on East Asia, European Economic Summit, India Economic Summit, World Economic Forum on Latin America, World Economic Forum on Africa and World Economic Forum USA.  Industrial Activities In addition to the annual meeting and regional summits, the forum also hosts many industrial activities throughout the world, which include President Meeting of Automotive Industry, President Meeting of IT industry and 2000 China Business Summit. These activities deal with important problems in specific industries to enhance cross-industrial cooperation. 2000 China Business Summit attracted 300 global large enterprises and many famous Chinese CEOs, some state leaders, authority of international economics, over 100 domestic typical enterprises and media.  The Forum of Global Young Leaders The Forum of Global Young Leaders was established by the executive chairman of the World Economic Forum Professor Klaus Schwab in 2004. The Forum of Global Young Leaders has been hosted twice. Until now, the World Economic Forum has selected 660 “Global Young Leaders” worldwide, including 40 young leaders from China. The selected candidates of “Global Young Leaders” should be under the age of 40 with 5-15 years of leadership experiences, and he/she should have made extraordinary achievements in his/her professional fields or have had clear commitment to serving society. Davos Forum will grant this honorable title to 250 exceptional young elites from every region of the world every year. They are drawn from over 4000 candidates by the jury which is composed of 34 world-renowned media. They are awarded by their achievements in different walks of life, their contributions to 51 public welfare and their potentials to influence the future. “Global Young Leaders” has become an important award of Davos Forum. 3、Constituent Members of the World Economic Forum There are mainly three types of member of the World Economic Forum: strategic partners, industry partners, and the community of global growth companies. Strategic Cooperation Partners Strategic partners are select member companies of the World Economic Forum who assist the forum in establishing its overall plan and agenda. Strategic Cooperation Partners are actively involved in directing and advising the organization of the forum, offering theoretical guidance, and appointing specialists to assist the Foundation‟s endeavors. Strategic Cooperation Partners may send 5 people to every annual conference. Industry Partners The Industry Partnership leverages the unparalleled convening power of the Forum in a unique way, bringing together select Members of the Forum through a series of integrated modules throughout the year. The Industry Partnership will facilitate strategic decision-making for its participants by providing privileged access to industry-specific and cross-industry insights. Industry Partners can send two persons to participate the annual meeting. Event Partners Partners in this area represent the top thousand global companies. Whilst occupying a leading commercial position within their own region or country, they also operate at a global scale. Within their field they will occupy a leading developmental role in the future. Event partners may send one person to the annual meeting. The Community of Global Growth Companies Candidate companies should have demonstrated the clear potential to be world economic leaders during the coming five years. They already possess a strong reputation in their fields, as well as a strong desire and ability to contend for a leading position in the global economy. Companies will be selected according to the following attributes: annual growth exceeding 15%, turnover ranging between USD 100 million and USD 2 billion, an outstanding business model, and a proven team of corporate executives. Members of the community include CEOs of the members of the forum and of Global Growth Companies, science & technology pioneers, leaders of the Web 2.0 world, and people with excellent leadership under the age of 40. Other than the above, the WEF also has other participants. These participants come from various other smaller organizations, which spread their expertise around the forum, with the result that each can offer a global-level contribution in their own particular specialist field. Industry Leader Group: Collaborators in this area include high ranking members of prominent global companies. Future Leader Group: Around 600 members under the age of 45, they are the decision-makers of a new, globalized generation. 52 Media Leader Group: Consisting of the most influential figures in the field of international media. Their participation guarantees that the event is actively fair and equitable, and increases the prestige of the event. Guest Group: Comprised of well-known and important figures from various backgrounds: political, economic, social, scientific, etc. Political Group: Including leading members of national governments, as well as representatives of important international organizations. Arts Elite Group: including around 100 well-known public figures from literary and artistic circles. 4、 Benefits and Obligations of Participants The Benefits and Obligations of Participants from the Global Business Field Include: Benefits: Participants from the global business community are able to participate in the World Economic Forum‟s meeting “From Davos to Dalian: Annual Meeting of the New Champions”. The first 50 members enjoy the status of “Founding Members”. This offers the opportunity to interview specialists and VIPs at the sub-forums of the annual WEF, at which world leaders from various backgrounds, as well as specialist pioneers, together probe deeply the questions lying at the heart of development. Other than this, they also have the right to participate in regional events of the WEF, and may send a director to participate three times in discussions at the „regional summits‟ that are related to Global Growth Companies. Additionally, they may also send a director and a high-ranking manager to participate in the „economic discussion groups‟ on three occasions. In the Community of Global Growth Companies section of the website, members have access to special areas and information regarding the annual meeting of Global Growth Companies, regional summits and economic discussion groups. CEOs and top ranking persons automatically receive their own usernames, and senior managers may also apply for one. The WEF also grants each participating company an expert „community manager‟, to aid long-term mutual collaboration between the member company and the WEF. Obligations: Participants are required to pay an annual membership fee of 25,000 Swiss Francs, which covers the period from 1st July 2007 to 30th June 2008.  Appendix: Major Activities Held by WEF During 2006-2007 2007 24-28 January World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 9-10 April Arab World Competitiveness Roundtable Doha, Qatar 53 25-26 April 18-20 May 9-10 June 13-15 June 24-25 June 4-6 September 6-8 September Dalian 8 November 29 November 2-4 December 2006 25-29 January 5-6 April 20-22 May 31 May-2 June 15-16 June 10-11 September 23-24 November 26-28 November World Economic Forum on Latin America Santiago de Chile World Economic Forum on the Middle East Dead Sea World Economic Forum Russia CEO Roundtable Saint Petersburg World Economic Forum on Africa Cape Town World Economic Forum on East Asia Singapore Young Global Leaders Annual Summit Dalian World Economic Forum Inaugural Annual Meeting of the New Champions Global Gender Gap Report Announcement of Technology Pioneers India Economic Summit New York Geneva New Delhi World Economic Forum Annual Meeting World Economic Forum on Latin America World Economic Forum on the Middle East World Economic Forum on Africa World Economic Forum on East Asia China Business Summit World Economic Forum in Turkey India Economic Summit 54