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					            Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) S.A. includes the WACC, discounted cash flow, EV Multiple, for Warren Buffett Calculator.
Investment research analysis for Wavecom for Panera Bread was created by Wikiwealth.com, your sourceand investment research and analysis.                                                                           Warren Buffett calculation for Panera Bread was created analysis. Wikiwealth.com, your for investment research and analysis.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              WACC (discount rate) for Panera Bread was created by
                                                                                                                                            Enterprise Value (EV) multiple analysis for Panera Bread was created by Wikiwealth.com, your source for investment research and by Wikiwealth.com, your sourcesource for investment research and analysis.




                                                                                                           -HOLD
 -HOLD




   -20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Home Page                                            Panera B
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Full Research Report


                                                                                      Try The Experimental Mode for PNRA                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Enter Experimental Mode   Millions USD


                                                                             Target Price                                                                                                                                                                             Potential Change

                                                   $125.9                                                                                                                                                                                               (19.7%)                                                                                                   -HOLD                     Total Revenue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            % growth rate

                                                                                      Last Price                                                                                                                                                                                                         Riskiness                                                  Cash Flow Potential     - COGS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            % of revenue
                                                   $156.8                                                                                                                                                                                              Medium                                                                                                      (28%)                    Gross Profit
                                                                                                    Analysis (rating, weight, potential)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    % of revenue
             Cash Flow                                                                                                                           -HOLD                                                                                                                                                     70%                                           (28%)        Potential Price
             Comparative                                                                                                                               HOLD                                                                                                                                                20%                                             6%                               - Operating Exp
             Buffett Calc
             Conclusion
                                                                                                                                                 -HOLD
                                                                                                                                                 -HOLD                                                                                                                                          100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10%                                           (12%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (20%)      $113                    % of revenue


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - SG&A (Op Ex)
                                                          Important Statistics & PNRA SWOT Analysis                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Last Stock Price      % of revenue
             WACC                                                                                                                                                                7% Div Yield                                                                                                                                                              n/a
             Cost of Debt
             Cost of Equity
                                                                                                                                                                                 5% ROIC
                                                                                                                                                                                 7% PEG Ratio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2.1      $157                    EBITDA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            % of revenue
             Implied Debt Cost                                                                                                                                                    n/a Market Cap                                                                                                                                                         4,703
             Risk Free Rate                                                                                                                                      3.2% Reinvest                                                                                                                                                                            34%                               - D & A (Op Ex)
             Interest Coverage                                                                                                                      #####                                                                       Beta                                                                                                                      0.87                              % of revenue


                                                                                          Top Competitor → Click To See All                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EBIT (oper profits)
             Panera Bread (PNRA)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -HOLD                              % of revenue
             Einstein Noah Restaurant (BAGL)
             Diedrich Coffee (DDRX)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         - Taxes
             Carrols Restaurant (TAST)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      % of EBIT
             Starbucks (SBUX)
             Nathan's Famous (NATH)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         NOPAT
             Kahala (KAHL)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  % of revenue
             0 (0)
             Cosi (COSI)
             Burger King (BKC)
             Jack in the Box (JACK)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         +D&A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            % of revenue
             Financial Stats                                                                                                                                                                                                  Competitors                                                                                                                PNRA
             Revenue Growth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3%                                  15%                               - CapEx
             EBITDA Margin                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13%                                            15%                               % of revenue
             EBIT Margin                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9%                                  10%
             Cash Flow Margin                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         9%                                   7%                               Working Capital
             Taxes                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         25%                                            37%                               % of revenue
             Debt / Equity                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 26%                                             0%
             Return On Equity                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3%                                   3%                               - WC Investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            % of revenue
             Multiple Stats                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              PNRA
2.45906

             Revenue (x)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3.1 x                                             2.5 x                             Free Cash Flow
14.9347

             EBITDA (x)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12.9 x                                                      14.9 x                             % of revenue
20.3655

             EBIT (x)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        19.4 x                                                      20.4 x
42.3198

             Cash Flow (x)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   57.1 x                                                      42.3 x                             Present Value Factor
0.95259

             Book Value (x)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.2 x                                             1.0 x
   34.84

             PE Ratio (x)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    36.2 x                                                      34.8 x                             Present Value of Free Cash Flows
                                Conclusion: Per Share Value


                                Invested Capital (Equity and Debt) Value
                                + Excess Cash
                                - Interest Bearing Debt, Preferred and Minority I


                                Equity Value (Net Present Value)


                                Divide: Shares Outstanding

                                Fair Value per Share


Notes on Analysis:
1. All numbers are in millions of US dollars. For valuation purposes, the currenc
                               Panera Bread (PNRA) - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF)

                                    Historical Year Ended                                                               Projected Year Ending
                       2007      2008         2009      2010       2011         2012      2013      2014        2015       2016      2017       2018


                       1,067       1,299       1,353    1,542      1,822        2,004     2,084     2,168       2,254       2,345    2,438      2,536
                         n/a       21.8%       4.2%     14.0%      18.1%        10.0%      4.0%      4.0%        4.0%       4.0%      4.0%       4.0%


                         435        532          534      587        702          793       824       857         892        927       965      1,003
                       40.8%       41.0%      39.5%     38.1%      38.5%        39.6%     39.6%     39.6%       39.6%      39.6%     39.6%      39.6%


                         632        767          819      955      1,120        1,211     1,260     1,310       1,363       1,417    1,474      1,533
                       59.2%       59.0%      60.5%     61.9%      61.5%        60.4%     60.4%     60.4%       60.4%      60.4%     60.4%      60.4%


                         542        654          679      770        900        1,005     1,045     1,087       1,130       1,175    1,222      1,271
                       50.8%       50.4%      50.2%     49.9%      49.4%        50.1%     50.1%     50.1%       50.1%      50.1%     50.1%      50.1%


                         484        587          612      701        820          912       944       977       1,011       1,047    1,083      1,121
                       45.4%       45.2%      45.2%     45.5%      45.0%        45.5%     45.3%     45.1%       44.9%      44.6%     44.4%      44.2%


                         148        180          208      254        300          299       316       333         351        370       391        412
                       13.8%       13.9%      15.3%     16.5%      16.5%        14.9%     15.1%     15.4%       15.6%      15.8%     16.0%      16.2%


                          58         67          67        69         80           92       101       109         119        129       139        150
                        5.4%       5.2%        5.0%      4.5%       4.4%         4.6%      4.8%      5.0%        5.3%       5.5%      5.7%       5.9%


                          90        113          140      185        220          207       215       224         233        242       252        262
                        8.4%       8.7%       10.4%     12.0%      12.1%        10.3%     10.3%     10.3%       10.3%      10.3%     10.3%      10.3%


                          31         41           53        69        84           76        79        83          86         89        93         97
                       35.0%       36.6%      37.8%     37.0%      38.2%        36.9%     36.9%     36.9%       36.9%      36.9%     36.9%      36.9%


                          58         72           87      117        136          130       136       141         147        153       159        165
                        5.5%       5.5%        6.5%      7.6%       7.5%         6.5%      6.5%      6.5%        6.5%       6.5%      6.5%       6.5%

                                                                          Free Cash Flow to the Firm Analysis


                          58         67           67        69        80           92       101       109         119        129       139        150
                        5.4%       5.2%        5.0%      4.5%       4.4%         4.6%      4.8%      5.0%        5.3%       5.5%      5.7%       5.9%


                         124         63           55        82       108          127       133       138         143        149       155        161
                       11.6%       4.9%        4.0%      5.3%       5.9%         6.4%      6.4%      6.4%        6.4%       6.4%      6.4%       6.4%


                         (67)        (53)        (67)    (110)      (108)        (119)     (124)     (128)       (134)       (139)    (145)      (150)
                       -6.3%       -4.1%       -4.9%    -7.1%      -5.9%        -5.9%     -5.9%     -5.9%       -5.9%       -5.9%    -5.9%      -5.9%


                          n/a        14          (14)       (44)          2        (11)       (5)       (5)        (5)         (5)       (6)       (6)
                         n/a       1.1%        -1.0%    -2.8%       0.1%        -0.5%     -0.2%     -0.2%       -0.2%       -0.2%    -0.2%      -0.2%


                          n/a        61          114      147        106          106       108       118         127        137       148        160
                         n/a       4.7%        8.4%      9.5%       5.8%         5.3%      5.2%      5.4%        5.6%       5.9%      6.1%       6.3%


Present Value Factor            Industry WACC               7%                  0.931     0.867     0.808       0.753       0.701    0.653      0.608


Present Value of Free Cash Flows            Lt Grth         3%                     99        94        95          96         96        97         97
Conclusion: Per Share Value                                                                       Working Capital Inputs               2007      2008


nvested Capital (Equity and Debt) Value                                        3,167              Current Assets                       152        138
                                                                                 223              - Excess Cash                         91         77
- Interest Bearing Debt, Preferred and Minority Interest                            0             - Current Liabilities                128        114
                                                                                                  + Short Term Debt                       0         0
Equity Value (Net Present Value)                                               3,390              Working Capital                       (67)      (53)
                                                                                                  % of revenue                       -6.3%      -4.1%
Divide: Shares Outstanding                                                         30
                                                                                                  Interest Exp (net)                      0         2
Fair Value per Share                                                            $113              Total Debt                            77         25



US dollars. For valuation purposes, the currency and stock price do not matter, because potential is a relative figure. The higher the potential the better.
 lysis (DCF)                                     Home Page                                                         Panera Bread (PNRA
                                                 Full Research Report


Year Ending                                     Enter Experimental Mode                                        Ent Value       Revenue Growth
               2019     2020     Stable >                                                                       Current         -1yr


               2,637
                4.0%
                        2,743
                         4.0%
                                   2,825
                                    3.0%
                                                 HOLD                       Panera Bread
                                                                            Einstein Noah Restaurant
                                                                                                                   4,480       18%


                                                                            Diedrich Coffee
               1,043    1,085      1,118           Multiples Potential      Carrols Restaurant                         599      3%
               39.6%    39.6%     39.6%                                     Starbucks                             43,929        9%


               1,594    1,658      1,708
                                                      6%                    Nathan's Famous
                                                                            Kahala
                                                                                                                       53      12%


               60.4%    60.4%     60.4%                                     0
                                                     Potential Price        Cosi
               1,322    1,375      1,416                                    Burger King                            3,263
               50.1%    50.1%     50.1%
                                                   $165                     Jack in the Box                        1,470        -5%


               1,160    1,201      1,237                                    Low Value                                  53       -5%
               44.0%    43.8%     43.8%             Last Stock Price        High Value                            43,929       12%
                                                                            Average Value                          9,863        5%
                 434
               16.5%
                          457
                        16.7%
                                     471
                                  16.7%
                                                   $157                     Median Value                           1,470        6%

                                                                                               Panera Bread vs. their Competitors (+ means target comp
                 162      174        180                                                                       Ent Value       Revenue Growth
                6.1%     6.4%       6.4%                                    Low Value                              +           +
                                                                            High Value                                         +
                 272      283        291                                    Average Value                                      +
               10.3%    10.3%     10.3%                                     Median Value                           +           +
                                                                            Advantages v. Competitors            50%          88%
                 100      104        108
               36.9%    36.9%     36.9%     Notes on Analysis:
                                            1. WikiWealth uses quantitative measures to determine the multiple range.
                 172      179        184    2. Free cash flow to the firm (FCF) multiple is free cash flow to equity holders plus interest owed to debt hold
                6.5%     6.5%       6.5%    3. Multiples incorporate benefits due to economies of scale; WikiWealth compares absolute EV to competito
                                            4. We exclude outliers in the individual company multiples.

                                            Additional Calculations
                 162      174        180
                6.1%     6.4%       6.4%                                                                                Financial Analysis
                                            Stock Research                                                   Revenue         EBITDA
                 168      174        180
                6.4%     6.4%       6.4%    Panera Bread                                                            1,822       300
                                            Einstein Noah Restaurant
                (156)    (163)              Diedrich Coffee
               -5.9%    -5.9%               Carrols Restaurant                                                         822      69
                                            Starbucks                                                             11,700      2,278
                  (6)      (6)        (6)   Nathan's Famous                                                            57          4
               -0.2%    -0.2%      -0.2%    Kahala
                                            0
                 172      185        190    Cosi
                6.5%     6.7%       6.7%    Burger King
                                            Jack in the Box                                                        2,193       177
               0.566    0.527      0.527
                                            Average Value                                                           3,319       566
                  97       97      2,298
                               2009    2010    2011


                               322     331     353
                               246     229     223
                               142     212     238
                                 0       0       0
                               (67)   (110)   (108)
                           -4.9%      -7.1%   -5.9%


                                 1       1       1
                                26      39       0



er the potential the better.
    Panera Bread (PNRA) - Comparative (EV) Multiples

               Revenue Growth             EBITDA Margin                EBIT Margin        Cash Flow Margin           Enterprise Value Multiples
                        -5yr     +5yr    -1yr     -5yr   +5yr      -1yr    -5yr   +5yr    -1yr   -5yr   +5yr    Rev         EBITDA        EBIT       FCF


                       15%        5%     15%     15%     15%       10%     10%    10%      5%    10%     5%      2.5 x        14.9 x      20.4 x     42.3 x Include
                                                                                                                                                               Include
                                                                                                                                                               Include
                        1%        3%      9%     10%         9%    6%       6%       6%    5%    6%      5%          n/m       8.7 x      15.8 x        n/m Include
                        6%        5%     19%     15%     19%       14%     10%    14%     10%    10%    10%      3.8 x        19.3 x      25.4 x     42.1 x Include
                        7%        3%     15%     15%     15%       13%     13%    13%      9%    13%     9%          n/m      13.2 x      17.5 x        n/m Include
                                                                                                                                                               Include
                                                                                                                                                               Include
                                                                                                                                                               Include
                                                                                                                                                               Include
                        -3%       2%     11%     10%     11%       6%       6%       6%    2%    6%      2%          n/m       8.3 x      18.1 x     86.9 x Include


                        -3%       2%      9%     10%         9%    6%       6%       6%    2%    6%      2%     2.5 x         8.3 x       15.8 x     42.1 x
                        7%        5%     19%     15%     19%       14%     13%    14%     10%    13%    10%     3.8 x        19.3 x       25.4 x     86.9 x
                        3%        3%     13%     13%     14%       10%      9%    10%      7%    9%      6%     3.1 x        12.9 x       19.4 x     57.1 x
                        3%        3%     13%     13%     13%       10%      8%    10%      7%    8%      7%     3.1 x        13.2 x       18.1 x     42.3 x

vs. their Competitors (+ means target company ratios better than competitor ratios)                                         Concluded Range
               Revenue Growth             EBITDA Margin                EBIT Margin        Cash Flow Margin      High          Ave     Ave      Ave
                        +        +       +        +          +     +       +         +    +      +      +                   Concluded Multiple
                        +        +                                                                              3.1 x        13.0 x       18.8 x     49.7 x
                        +        +       +        +          +     +       +         +           +                      Potential per Multiple
                        +        +       +        +          +     +       +         +           +              25%           -12%         -7%       17%
                        =       High     69%      =      Ave      69%      =      Ave     44%    =      Ave    Conclusion                               6%



iple range.
quity holders plus interest owed to debt holders.
Wealth compares absolute EV to competitors.




        Financial Analysis                      Enterprise Value Calculation                                   Rev          EBITDA        EBIT       FCF
                     EBIT       FCFF
                                                Current Financial Results                                        1,822          300          220        106
                        220      106            Multiple x                                                       3.1 x        13.0 x      18.8 x     49.7 x
                                                Multiple Calculation                                             5,661        3,903        4,136      5,264


                        38        66            Enterprise Value
                     1,728 1,043                Less: Total Debt                                                        0             0          0         0
                            3        5          Plus: Excess Cash                                                    223        223          223        223
                                                = Stock Holder's Equity Capital                                  5,884        4,126        4,359      5,487


                                                Divide: Shares Outstanding                                            30         30           30         30
                                                = Fair Value per Share                                               196        138          145        183
                        81        17
                                                Current Stock Price                                                157           157        157         157
                        414      247            Potential Stock Increase                                          25%          -12%         -7%        17%
   Home Page                                                     Panera Bread (PNRA) - Warren Buffett V
   Full Research Report


 Enter Experimental Mode                            Historical Financials (% of revenue)
                              Financial Results         2007     2008     2009     2010    2011   Ave


  -HOLD                       Revenue Growth
                              Gross Profit
                                                           n/a
                                                          59%
                                                                   22%
                                                                   59%
                                                                             4%
                                                                            61%
                                                                                     14%
                                                                                     62%
                                                                                            18%
                                                                                            61%
                                                                                                  15%
                                                                                                  60%
                              EBITDA Margin               14%      14%      15%      16%    16%   15%
      Buffett Potential       EBIT Margin                  8%       9%      10%      12%    12%   10%
                              Tax Rates                   35%      37%      38%      37%    38%   37%

    (12%)                     NOPAT
                              D&A
                                                           5%
                                                           5%
                                                                    6%
                                                                    5%
                                                                             6%
                                                                             5%
                                                                                      8%
                                                                                      4%
                                                                                             7%
                                                                                             4%
                                                                                                   6%
                                                                                                   5%

       Potential Price        Capital Expenditure         12%       5%       4%       5%     6%    6%


    $138
                              Working Capital Inv         -6%      -4%      -5%      -7%    -6%   -6%
      Last Stock Price


    $157                      Free Cash Flow               n/a      5%       8%      10%     6%    7%

     Investment Score


      80%
Notes on Analysis:
1. The Warren Buffett Valuation model is an experimental model developed to mimic the investment approach used by Warren Buffett, the
d (PNRA) - Warren Buffett Value Calculator                                                                                      Home Page
                                                                                                                                 Full Research Report
                                                                                                                    \




                       Buffett          Criteria / Questions / Score            Buffett Intrinsic Value Calc
                       Results
                                                                                                                        WACC
                         9%       Consistency                                   Buffett Formula (FCF/RFR)               WACC Inputs
                        75%       Consistency           Pass       5%                                                   Risk Free Rate
                        15%       Consistency           Pass       5%       Free Cash Flow (fcf)            120         Cost of Debt
                        13%       Consistency           Pass       5%       Risk-Free Rate (rfr)            3.2%        Equity Risk Prem
                        30%       Consistency           Pass       5%       Buffett Fair Value (EV)        3,761        Alpha
                         9%       Consistency           Pass       5%                                                   Country Risk Premium
                         3%       Consistency           Pass       5%           Enterprise Value (EV) Calc
                                                                                                                        Industry WACC Calculation
                         5%       Consistency           Pass       5%       + Cash                          223         Beta (unlevered)
                                  < Buffett Portfolio                       - Debt & Minority Int              0        Industry D/E
                                  Low                   Pass       5%       Equity Capital                 3,984        Tax Rate (5 yrs)
                                                                                                                        Beta (relevered)
                         0%       Consistency                               Shares                             30
                                  < Buffett Portfolio   Pass       10%                                                  Cost of Debt (after-tax)
                                  < Rev Growth          Pass       5%       Potential Stock Price      $    133         Debt / Capital
                                                                            Current Stock Price        $    157         WAC (debt)
                         6%       Consistency           Pass       5%       Potential Return               -15%
                                  > Buffett Portfolio   Pass       20%      Investment Score                80%         Cost of Equity (capm)
                                                                                                                        Equity / Capital
                                  Investment Score                 80%      Adjusted Potential             -12%         WAC (equity)


                                                                                                                        WACC Conclusion




                                                                                                                        Notes on Analysis:
e investment approach used by Warren Buffett, the most successful investor of all time.
                                                                                                                        1. The WACC (discount rate) calculation uses c
                                                                                                                        over the long term. If there are any short-term d
                                                                                                                        likely to revert to the industry WACC (discount r


                                                                                                                        2. The WACC calculation uses the higher of the
                                                                                                                        occur if the beta is negative and the company us
    Home Page                                                          Panera Bread (PNRA) - WACC Discount Rate
    Full Research Report


                                                                    Calculation to Find the Industry Average Estimates for the WACC Calculation (Millions USD)
                        7%
                                                                                                    Beta
                                     Name (click for report)                             Price     levered     Debt       Shares   Equity    Capital
                             3.2%
                             5.0%    Panera Bread                                       $   157     0.87              0       30    4,703      4,703
                             5.0%    Einstein Noah Restaurant
                             0.0%    Diedrich Coffee
                             0.0%    Carrols Restaurant                                 $    15     2.02         279          23      345        624
                                     Starbucks                                          $    60     1.20         552         753   45,428    45,980
stry WACC Calculation                Nathan's Famous                                    $    21     0.23              0        4       86         86
                              0.84 Kahala
                             0.6%    0
                            33.1%    Cosi
                              0.84 Burger King                                          $    24     0.80              0      136    3,263      3,263
                                     Jack in the Box                                    $    23     0.74         469          44    1,012      1,481
                             3.3%
                             0.6%    Median (middle #)                                              0.84         140          37    2,137      2,372
                             0.0%


                             7.4%
                            99.4%
                             7.3%


                             7.4%




he WACC (discount rate) calculation uses comparable companies to produce a single WACC (discount rate). An industry average WACC (discount rate) is the most accurate
 the long term. If there are any short-term differences between the industry WACC and an individual company's WACC (discount rate), then the companies WACC (discount
  to revert to the industry WACC (discount rate) over the long term.


he WACC calculation uses the higher of the WACC or the risk free rate, because no investment can have a cost of capital that is better than risk free. This situation may
 r if the beta is negative and the company uses a significant proportion of equity capital.
C Discount Rate

 ACC Calculation (Millions USD)


                         Debt       Debt               Beta
                        Equity     Capital   Tax %    unlever


                           0.0%       0.0%    36.9%      0.87 Include



                         80.8%      44.7%     15.8%      1.20 Include
                           1.2%       1.2%    32.4%      1.19 Include
                           0.0%       0.0%    33.7%      0.23 Include




                           0.0%       0.0%     0.0%      0.80 Include
                         46.3%      31.7%     45.1%      0.59 Include


                           0.6%       0.6%    33.1%      0.84




 e WACC (discount rate) is the most accurate for a company
 t rate), then the companies WACC (discount rate) is more



 better than risk free. This situation may

				
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