Waypoint 2009
Canberra 17 June 2009
Major Accidents
Worldwide Commercial Jets 1998 – 2008
Major Accidents
40
Major Accidents
50
1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 17 13 19 13 13 16 11 15 18 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Major Accident Rate*
Western Major Accident Rate*
30 22 20 10 0 24
Source: Ascend
* Reliable worldwide departure/rate data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
Major Accident Rate
Western-Built Commercial Jets* 1997 – 2008
Accident rate per million departures
1.20
5 year running average
0.80
Major Accident Rate (per million departures)
0.40
0.00
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Ascend
* Reliable total departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft
Regional Rate: Western-built Jet Hull Losses
IATA Safety Report 2008
4
CEO & COO Brief
What it Looks Like to the Public
5
20 August — Spanair Madrid
22 September — XL Airways Perpignan, France
20 December — Continental Denver
15 January — US Airways New York
12 February — Colgan Air Buffalo
25 February — Turkish Airways Amsterdam
23 March – FEDEX Tokyo
1 June - Air France 447
13
NEW TRENDS
14
Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents
1 January though 22 December 2008
Date
24 August 30 August
Commercial Jets
Operator
Itak-Air Conviasa
Aircraft
B-737 B-737
Location
Toacaso, Ecuador
Phase
Enroute
Fatal
65 3
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Approach
Source: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend
Loss of Control Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January through 22 December 2008
Operator
Iran Air Belivia USA Jet Airlines Spanair Aeroflot Nord
Date
2 January 14 February 6 July 20 August 14 September
Aircraft
F-100 CRJ-100 DC-9 MD-82 B-737
Location
Shiraz, Iran
Yeverevan, Armenia
Phase Fatal
Takeoff Takeoff Approach Takeoff Approach 0 0 1 154 81
Saltillo, Mexico Madrid, Spain
Perm, Russia
Source: Ascend, Boeing
Loss of Control Major Accidents Commercial Transport
1 January through 1 June 2009
Operator
Iran Air Belivia USA Jet Airlines Spanair Aeroflot Nord XL Airways Colgan Airways Fedex Air France
Date
2 January 14 February 6 July 20 August 14 September 22 September 12 February 25 February 23 March 1 June
Aircraft
F-100 CRJ-100 DC-9 MD-82 B-737 A320 Q400 MD-11 A330
Location
Shiraz, Iran
Yeverevan, Armenia
Phase Fatal
Takeoff Takeoff Approach Takeoff Approach Approach Approach Approach Approach Cruise 0 0 1 154 81 4 50 9 2 228
Saltillo, Mexico Madrid, Spain
Perm, Russia Perpiganan France Buffalo, NY Amsterdam Tokyo South Atlantic
Turkish Airways B-737
Source: Ascend, Boeing
Runway Safety Fatality Data
1995 – 2007 (464 fatal accidents (35%))
Number of Fatal Accidents (Onboard Fatalities)
Incursions: Excursions: Confusion:
5 31 2
(129) (680) (132)
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
19
The Future is Inescapable
• We are in the middle of an explosion of the world's middle class • About 70m people a year globally are entering this wealth group • Accelerating to 90m a year by 2030 • In 20 years 2bn people will have joined the ranks of the middle class
Source: Chief economist, Goldman Sachs, July 2008
20
ICAO IATA Revised Forecast
21
Where Traffic Growth will Occur
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast
22
What about the Regulator?
• 190 state regulatory agencies
“With respect to aircraft operations,
approximately half of the audited states have an insufficient number of flight operations inspectors to adequately perform safety oversight of civil aviation activities.” ICAO
23
NEW RESPONSES
24
Work Together
• Industry looks beyond competitive issues to address safety concerns
25
Airplane Upset Recovery Training Aid
26
Work Together
• Industry looks beyond competitive issues to address safety concerns • Look past traditional industry stovepipes
27
Breakdown: Accident Categories
IATA Safety Report 2008
28
CEO & COO Brief
Runway Safety Initiative
Runway Safety Initiative Participants
• • • • • • • • • • EASA CANSO IFALPA FAA LVNL Boeing DGAC France Flight Safety Foundation IFATCA NLR • • • • • • • • • Airbus Embraer ACI IATA ERA Eurocontrol AAPA US NTSB AEA
High-Altitude Upset Training
31
Work Together
• Industry looks beyond competitive issues to address safety concerns • Look past traditional industry stovepipes • Share the safety information
32
Safety is Information Driven
• Accident Data • Incident Data • Flight Data Monitoring (FOQA) • Voluntary Non-Punitive Reporting • Line Observed Safety Audit • Cooperative Data Sharing
Unstabilized Approach Example
Work Together
• Industry looks beyond competitive issues to address safety concerns • Look past traditional industry stovepipes • Share the safety information • Protect the safety information
35
Do Not Be Naive
• Public demanding more accountability • Prosecutions becoming frequent • Direct interference with safety investigations becoming an issue
A Balanced to be Maintained
37
Joint Resolution Regarding Criminalization of Aviation Accidents
Legislate Where Required
Flight Safety Foundation Calls for Stronger Protection of Volunteered Aviation Safety Information
FSF today endorsed the creation of a “qualified exception” from discovery of voluntary selfdisclosure reporting programs, similar to the protection already provided in U.S. law against the use of Cockpit Voice Recorder …
39
Legislate Where Required
Flight Safety Foundation Calls for Stronger Protection of Volunteered Aviation Safety Information
…except to allow limited discovery when a court decides a requesting party has demonstrated a particular need for the information and that party would not receive a fair trial if the information is not provided.
40
Legislate Where Required
Flight Safety Foundation Calls for Stronger Protection of Volunteered Aviation Safety Information
…only made public under protective order, and not generally made available to the public.
41
Work Together
• Industry looks beyond competitive issues to address safety concerns • Look past traditional industry stovepipes • Share the safety information • Protect the safety information • Keep the politics out of safety
42
U.S. Examples
"It is misfeasance, malfeasance, bordering on corruption," Rep. James Oberstar, D-Minn., chairman of the House
Transportation and Infrastructure Committee
A Broken System: Failing FAA Oversight at Southwest Part of Bigger Maintenance Crisis – Teamster’s Union FAA's Oversight of Airline Safety Under Investigation
Washington Post
Travel disrupted for more than 300,000 passengers
Transportation Secretary Mary Peters
43
Canadian Example
Auditor blasts Transport Canada
Says potential risks not evaluated before system was changed to let aviation industry police itself
FSF Supports Transport Canada’s Safety Management Plan
Alexandria, VA, March 2, 2007 — The Flight Safety Foundation announced today its strong support of regulatory changes proposed by Transport Canada that would require Canadian airlines to implement safety management systems (SMSs).
44
Australian Example
Damning audit slams CASA’s safety record
Ben Sandilands
The myth of Australian leadership in air safety has been exposed in a damning audit by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). In the final report of the audit carried out in February 2008 the body finds CASA lacks the competencies, resources, training, and regulatory powers to carry out a broad range of critical functions and meet Australia’s obligations under the ICAO treaty
45
More Australian Examples
Qantas staff demand end of outsourcing maintenance
November 13, 2008
Air maintenance depots go unchecked
Richard Baker
July 30, 2008
46
FSF Statement on Aviation Maintenance at Foreign Repair Stations
“We have seen no evidence whatsoever that aircraft maintenance performed by non-U.S. repair stations is any less safe than that performed in the U.S., provided the repair stations and personnel properly certified and regulated. We would be very concerned about any interference in the carefully crafted international system of reciprocal recognition of airworthiness determinations”
47
Flight Safety Foundation Criticizes Prosecutorial Interference With Accident Investigation
The Flight Safety Foundation sharply criticized the interference of prosecutors in ongoing aviation accident investigations in Italy and France, warning that such interference hampers efforts to improve aviation safety and prevent similar accidents in the future
48
Summary
• Safety challenges exist today • Today the challenge today is a downturn, tomorrow it will be growth • Asia Pacific cannot follow someone’s else’s lead for the next decade • Safety problems are best solved when industry and government find a way to work together
49