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Evaluating the Impacts of Real Time Passenger

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					Evaluating the Impacts of Real Time
  Passenger Information and Bus
    Signal Priority in Trondheim
  Morten Welde, Norwegian Public Roads Administration
       Trond Foss, SINTEF Technology and Society
   Ørjan Tveit, Norwegian Public Roads Administration

  ITS World Congress, Orlando, October 16-20, 2011
Objectives

 To demonstrate that ITS projects can and should
 be evaluated to demonstrate their effects
 To prove, using the implementation of real time
 passenger information and bus signal priority in
 Trondheim, that ITS based solutions for public
 transport provide posititive effects and are
 profitable from an economic point of view
 To encourage the proponents of ITS solutions in
 the transport sector that economic evaluation is
 an asset for securing ITS investments
Presentation outline

1.   Background
2.   Public transport in Trondheim
3.   Hypothesised effects
4.   Results
5.   Conclusions
2. Public Transport in Trondheim

 Population: 175.000
 Modal share: Car: 60%, Walking: 20%, PT: 10%,
 Bike: 10%
 Total number of bus trips per year: 18 mill.
 ⅔ of costs covered by ticket revenues
 Buses, one tram line and trains to and from
 neighbouring towns and regions
 Gross subsidy tendering, services planned and
 managed by PT authority AtB – a subsidiary of
 the regional authorities
1. Background: Why ITS?

 ITS based projects are an asset to the transport
 sector for various reasons:
 – Enhances mobility
 – Improves accessibility
 – Improves traffic safety
 However, the merits of other types of projects
 are gauged using economic frameworks such as
 cost benefit analysis (CBA), but not ITS

 ITS based projects stand to loose in competition
 for funds unless its merits can be demonstrated!
Real time passenger information (RTPI) and
bus signal priority in Trondheim

 Introduced in February 2011
 All buses and 35 bus stops now have screens
 which inform passengers of next bus stop (on
 buses) and expected arrival time of next bus
 RTPI available on mobile phones and audio
 systems for the visually impaired also available
 Bus signal priority in 50 junctions
 A range of measures are introduced through the
 ‘Environmental package Trondheim’ to increase
 the attractivity of public transport
The “Environmental package Trondheim”

 “Miljøpakke Trondheim” (Environmental package Trondheim) an
 ambitious programme to improve the environment and
 Trondheim’s transport system:
  – Reduce CO2 emissions by 20 %
  – Increase walking/cycling/PT by 50 %
  – Reduce the private car share of all trips to 50 %
  – Increase the speed of PT by 40 %
  – Reduce people exposed to harmful road noise by 15 %
  – Reduce traffic accidents by 20 %
 Revenues to finance investments in PT, facilities for
 walkers/cyclists, road projects and subsidies to PT
  – 50 % for roads, 50 % other ‘soft’ measures
 A toll cordon with tolls $ 1.50 − $ 3.50, depending on time of day
3. Hypothesised effects

 Hypothesis 1: RTPI will reduce bus dwell time.
 Hypothesis 2: RTPI will reduce passengers’ wait
 time.
 Hypothesis 3: RTPI will increase passenger
 satisfaction.
 Hypothesis 4: RTPI will increase the total number of
 passengers.
 Hypothesis 5: Bus signal priority will reduce total
 bus travel time.
 Hypothesis 6: Bus signal priority will reduce bus
 delays at signals.
4. Results

 RTPI

 Bus signal priority

 Cost-benefit analysis
Have RTPI reduced passengers’ wait time?


                     Before RTPI After RTPI        Reduction      p-value
Passenger’s Stop 1   6 min 15 sec   5 min 19 sec      − 51 sec.         0.172
                                                                                Significant? NO/YES
 wait time Stop 2    5 min 15 sec   3 min 40 sec      − 95 sec.         0.006
Does RTPI increase passenger satisfaction?
(n = 1066)

 Some results from the survey:
  – 75% of the respondents were satisfied with today’s bus
    services, 17% was dissatisfied while the remaining 8%
    had no opinion
  – 42% of respondents felt that bus services had improved
    while the rest felt that the quality was unchanged.
  – Over 50% of respondents agree that wait time at bus
    stops is short, while some 33% feel that average wait
    time is too long
  – Over 50% have not experienced any improvements in
    wait time since 2010, 24% have experienced an
    improvement, 18% have not formed an opinion, while
    7% feels wait time has become worse.
Have RTPI increased passenger numbers?

 2 500 000
                                        Reisende pr mnd
 2 000 000



 1 500 000

                                                                                            2009
                                                                                            2010
 1 000 000
                                                                                            2011


  500 000



        0

                                                                   Sept
                                April




                                                                                      Des
                   Feb




                                                                          Okt
                                                             Aug
                                         Mai

                                               Juni
                         Mars




                                                      Juli




                                                                                Nov
             Jan
Conclusions RTPI
Hypothesis                        Conclusion
RTPI will reduce bus dwell time   Registrations show reduced bus dwell time. Reults are,
                                  however, non-significant and we are thus unable to
                                  conclude if the reduction is due to RTPI alone.

RTPI will reduce passengers’      Average passenger wait time has been reduced
wait time                         significantly. Passengers also report that experienced
                                  wait time is lower after the introduction of RTPI.

RTPI will increase passenger      Customer satisfaction has increased. It is likely that RTPI
satisfaction                      has contributed to this.


RTPI will increase the total      The number of bus passengers has increased annually
number of passengers              since 2009. Although RTPI has lead to positive effects for
                                  passengers, we can not conclude that this increase is due
                                  to RTPI alone.
Has bus signal priority reduced total
travel time and bus delays at signals?
 Although a considerable amount of data was collected and many
 different types of analyses were carried out it was not possible to
 achieve a clear and significant answer to Hypothesis 5 and 6.
 The results point in several directions and the main conclusion
 from this part of the evaluation is that a long period of study both
 before and after the implementation is needed and extensive data
 collection is necessary in order to achieve reliable results.
 A major challenge in the evaluation was to separate the impacts
 of the bus priority measure from all other variables, e.g. traffic
 variations and variations in the number of passengers boarding or
 leaving the bus stops on the road section studied.
 The effects of bus signal priority will continue to be monitored in
 order to enable us to draw final conclusions regarding the effects
 of this measure.
Conclusions bus signal priority
Hypothesis                        Conclusion
Bus signal priority will reduce
total bus travel time


Bus signal priority will reduce
bus delays at signals
A cost benefit analysis of RTPI

 Overall assumptions used in the estimation:
  –   Time frame for analysis: 25 years
  –   Expected life time of investments: 12 years
  –   Discount rate: 4.5%
  –   Average VAT rate: 6%
  –   Marginal cost of public funds: 20%
  –   Benefit per trip when RTPI is available: $ 0.70
CBA results

                                  NPV         NPV benefits               NPV
                                  costs      Min       Max         Min         Max
Investment costs                     (4.8)
Reinvestment costs                   (4.4)
Maintenance and operating costs     (11.1)
Marginal cost of public funds        (1.9)
Benefits bus passengers                          82          185
NPV                                 (22.2)       82          185     59.8        162.8
BCR                                                                      2.7         7.3



Low costs, high benefits
5. Conclusions

 RTPI and bus signal priority are measures well
 suited to increase the quality of public transport
 Along with other measures this could increase
 passenger numbers and encourage modal shift
 Evaluation by means of CBA demonstrates that
 RTPI provides significant value for money


Thank you!
Evaluating the Impacts of Real Time
  Passenger Information and Bus
    Signal Priority in Trondheim
  Morten Welde, Norwegian Public Roads Administration
       Trond Foss, SINTEF Technology and Society
   Ørjan Tveit, Norwegian Public Roads Administration

  ITS World Congress, Orlando, October 16-20, 2011

				
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