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The Need for Climate-Related Extreme Event Information for Aviation

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					    The Need for Climate-related
   Extreme Event Information for
             Aviation



                         Mary M. Cairns
                   Senior Staff Meteorologist
                   OFCM Aviation Program Lead



October 30, 2007            OFCM/CCAMS
                     Background Issues
• Approximately 70% of air traffic delays are caused
  by weather, at a cost of about $6 billion per year
  – Each minute of delay costs ~$50 per minute per flight
• The National Airspace System is a reactive system
  today
  –   Convection
  –   Snowstorms (e.g., east coast)
  –   Hurricane Katrina
  –   Southern California fires
  –   Volcanic ash
  –   Extended heat events

  October 30, 2007         OFCM/CCAMS
                     Aviation Needs
                     “Issues to think about”

• Extreme events – how are they defined?
  – Meteorologically or Impact?
• Intensity vs. Frequency
  – One major snowstorm, or many snowstorms at a
    particular critical level at an airport? Fog?
  – Landfalling hurricanes?
  – El Nino => increase in severe weather means increased
    thunderstorms and more delays?
• Monitoring/prediction of extremes for increased
  CO2 (e.g., contrails)
  October 30, 2007          OFCM/CCAMS
                            Summary
• Weather impacts aviation safety and
  efficiency
• Climate-related extreme impacts (and
  related services) need further examination
• Currently, “climate” is not included in JPDO
  aviation weather plans for the future
  (missed opportunity?)*
   – Emissions
*exception   could be DoD
   October 30, 2007          OFCM/CCAMS

				
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posted:4/17/2013
language:English
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