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					Solar Thermal in Europe and
in Finland
Market evolution and perspectives

Solar Forum in Finland,
Helsinki, 8th December 2011
Xavier Noyon,
Secretary General
European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF)



             Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
    European Solar Thermal Industry Federation

     Voice of the solar thermal industry,
     representing the sector at European level
     Actively promoting the use of solar thermal
     technology for renewable heating and cooling
     Coordinating efforts to promote solar thermal
     Providing support to the solar thermal sector




2           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
                        Solar Heating
                        and Cooling
                        State of the Art

    Wagner & Co/ESTIF




3
    Solar Heating and Cooling
    • Also known as solar thermal or solar water
      heating

    • Part of Renewable Heating and Cooling
      sector:
      – Solar Thermal
      – Geothermal
      – Biomass




4
                      Renewable Energy
                          Sources

    Renewable Heating                   Renewable
        & Cooling                    Electricity / Power

                                                      Solar
                                 Solar
                                                   Thermal
      Solar Thermal           Photovoltaics
                                                   Electricity
                                  (PV)
                                                     (CSP)


5
    Solar Thermal Collectors




     Flat Plate Collectors
                             Evacuated Tube
                               Collectors


6
    Solar Thermal Collectors




     Air Collectors   Unglazed Collectors



7
    Solar Thermal Systems
                           Forced Circulation
                         DHW, Combi or
                      Combi + (DHW + heating + cooling)




       Thermosiphon
      Domestic Hot
      Water (DHW)

8
    Solar Thermal Applications
    •    Much more than …
                       …Domestic Hot Water
    Or even
         Space Heating (Combi Systems)

                                It’s also…                         Velux/ESTIF




                                » Industrial Process Heat
                                » Solar Cooling
                                » Solar District Heating
                                » Water Treatment (desalination)
    S.O.L.I.D./ESTIF




9
       Solar Thermal Applications
                                          pool
                                        heating,                  space cooling
                                      crop drying

                                                    water&space
                                                      heating


                                                                                    industrial process heat




     Concentrating collectors



        Advanced flat-plate,
           CPC-collectors
                                                                            Glazed collectors
     Flat-plate, evacuated tube
              collectors



          Unglazed collectors



                                  0             50                100             150           200           250   300
                                                                   Working Temperature (ºC)




10
Solar Active House /Nearly Zero-Energy Building
     Energy Performance of Buildings
     A European Definition for Nearly Zero
     Energy Buildings
     – different definitions for low energy/plus energy or zero
       carbon buildings
     – “The nearly zero or very low amount of energy required
       should to a very significant extent be covered by
       energy from renewable source, including renewable
       energy produced on-site or nearby"
     – instrumental in decreasing EU import dependency as
       about 40% of the EU’s energy is consumed in buildings




12             Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
       Existing Buildings Stock (OECD countries)
                                                        1
~85% of housing                                                                                                                                     ~70% of housing
 stock over 20                                         0.9
                                                                                                                                                     stock over 40
   years old
                 Share of residential building stock


                                                       0.8                                                                                             years old
                                                       0.7

                                                       0.6
                                                                                                                                                       1990-2002*
                                                       0.5
                                                                                                                                                       1970-1990
                                                       0.4
                                                                                                                                                       1945-1970
                                                       0.3
                                                                                                                                                       <1945
                                                       0.2

                                                       0.1

                                                        0                                                                                                Renovation
                                                                                                                                                         rate in EU:
                                                                                                                                                           1-1,5%
       Age Distribution of Housing Stock in Selected Countries
       Source: Norris and Shiels, 2004



 13                                                          Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
Large-Scale Refurbishment/ Retrofitting
Large-Scale Industrial Applications
     Which developments are expected?
      Cost reduced solar thermal systems with
      improved reliability and efficiency combined
      with plug and play installations
      Solar renovation, including multifunctional
      components
      Standardized system technology of large solar
      thermal systems for commercial purposes
      Solar thermally driven cooling and refrigeration
      And, of course, Compact/ High density storage



16           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
Smart District Heating




      Large Solar Systems
                 in Denmark
                                          What has been
                                          the market
                                          development?




18   Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     Consolidated industry
       2,7 GW th of newly installed
       capacity in 2010
       25 GWth of capacity in
       operation
       Turnover close to 3.000
       mEUR/year
                                      GASOKOL/ESTIF


     • Over 35.000 full time jobs (most in small and medium
       size installation businesses)




19
     EU Solar Thermal market 2000-2010
     kWth
                         Solar Thermal Market in EU 27 and Switzerland (Glazed Collectors)                                                 m2

     3 500 000                                                                                                                        5 000 000

                                                                                                                                      4 500 000
     3 000 000
                                                                                                                                      4 000 000

     2 500 000                                                                                                                        3 500 000

                                                                                                                                      3 000 000
     2 000 000
                                                                                                                                      2 500 000
     1 500 000                                                                  12,5% average growth
                                                                                                                                      2 000 000

     1 000 000                                                                                                                        1 500 000

                                                                                                                                      1 000 000
      500 000
                                                  11,5% average growth
                                                                                                                                      500 000

            0                                                                                                                         0
             2000        2001         2002       2003       2004        2005         2006         2007         2008        2009   2010

         Other 21 EU countries and Switzerland          Top 6 countries except Germany (Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Spain)      Germany




20
     Irregular growth
                 Overall growth tendency in Europe

                 Erratic growth per country

                 Diverse market behaviour over Europe

                 Dependency of state budget run
                 support schemes




21
     Market forecast 2011




22         Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     Forecast 2011           (Markets > 200 000 m²)




23           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     Forecast 2011                   (Markets > 50 000 m²)




24         Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
                                                              What are the
                                                              perspectives?

     Wagner & Co/ESTIF




25                       Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
        Forecast of solar thermal growth                                                        (yearly rate)




 ~16%




                                                                                                                Source: ECN, 2010




26              Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
Solar Thermal in 2020
Roadmap for solar energy technology and
markets in Finland from 2002

  Strategic Goal
  -   Solar Energy is fully on the Finnish Market
  -   Leading position in certain market segments
  -   120.000 m2 solar heating sales/production
  -   Domestic market 20.000 m2


  Actual situation
  - 33.000m2
     Potential of Solar Thermal in Europe




29
     Potential of Solar Thermal in Europe

                                                          2020
                                        2006    BAU    AMD NREAPs      RDP

      Spec. Colector area    m²/inhab   0,04    0,2     0,3    0,29     0,8

      Total Collector area   Million m² 20,25   97     145,5   146     388

      Total Installed capacity GWth     14,17   67,9   101,9   102,2   271,6




30
Advanced Market Deployment Scenario
Assumptions

 Moderate reduction of the heating demand
 compared to 2006
  - Average: -5% by 2020, -10% by 2030 and -20% by
    2050 (depending on the country)


 Medium growth rate of installed capacity (10-
 15% per annum until 2020)
Advanced Market Deployment Scenario
Assumptions

 Political support mechanisms
  - Solar obligations for all new residential buildings
  - subsidies for existing residential, service and
    commercial buildings
  - subsidies for industrial applications
 Subsidies or rise fossil fuel energy cost:
  - subsidies covering 10 to 30% of the system cost
  - Or
  - constantly moderate rising energy prices of fossil
    energy
Advanced Market Deployment Scenario
Assumptions

 Moderate reduction of the heating demand
 compared to 2006
  - Average: -5% by 2020, -10% by 2030 and -20% by
    2050 (depending on the country)


 Medium growth rate of installed capacity (10-
 15% per annum until 2020)
Advanced Market Deployment Scenario
Assumptions

 Political support mechanisms
  - Solar obligations for all new residential buildings
  - subsidies for existing residential, service and
    commercial buildings
  - subsidies for industrial applications
 Subsidies or rise fossil fuel energy cost:
  - subsidies covering 10 to 30% of the system cost
  - Or
  - constantly moderate rising energy prices of fossil
    energy
Advanced Market Deployment Scenario
Assumptions
 Medium R&D rate:
  - solutions for high energy density heat stores and new
    collector materials
  - sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar
    thermal cooling by the year 2020
 Main focus on solar combi-systems
  - for hot water preparation and space heating in the
    residential sector;
  - solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%)
    until 2020 and medium solar fraction (20-50%) from
    2020
  - moderate market diffusion in all other sectors
      European renewable mix in 2020


 Solar thermal: 5,64% of Renewable Heat


     RES-
     RES-H




36           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
                                                          Regulatory and
                                                          policy framework

     Wagner & Co/ESTIF




37                       Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
39   Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     The 20-20-20 EU policy by 2020

                                                                                                            100%
       -20%                           -20%



                                                                           +20%

      Greenhouse                      Energy                           Renewables in
       gas levels                  consumption                          energy mix



40                  Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     Which policy mechanisms?

      Increase RES (renewable energy sources) in
      the energy mix

      National Renewable Heat policy
       – Stable financial incentives are needed as much
         as for electricity!

        The Renewables Energy Sources
             Directive (2009/28/EC)

41           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     Financial incentives for renewable heat




42           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     Which policy mechanisms?
      Important focus on residential sector
       – Reduce consumption
          • Energy efficiency measures
       – Increase the use of clean energy
          • Promote more RES in energy mix
       – Promote decentralised energy production
          • In the buildings or nearby

         Energy Performance of Buildings
                Directive (recast)


43            Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
              Energy efficiency of heating appliances
                          Energy labelling

                              System (supplier/manufacturer)

Ecodesign                              Combi
                      Lot 1
                                                                Lot 2
            Sapce heating                                   Water heaters



Energy labelling
                                      “Installer label”
                                     (distributor/dealer)
     Which policy mechanisms?
      addressing more actors, institutions and market
      channels

      encourages energy efficiency through the development
      of a market for energy services

      delivery of energy efficiency programmes and measures
      to end users of energy and energy services

       The Energy End-use Efficiency and
        Energy Services Directive(recast)


45            Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
     You can help us with
      Soft law!Best practice recommendations,
      background debate on renewable heat policy
       -> reflection upon FIT at EU level -> FIT at
         national level
      Improved role of heat (heating technologies) in
      Energy Efficiency, Low Carbon Economy, 2050
      strategy
       -> 2030 binding targets
      Place of renewable heat in EU Budget
       ->Research
       ->Cohesion funds


46           Rue d'Arlon 63-67 • B-1040 Bruxelles • Belgium •   Email: info@estif.org • Web: www.estif.org
Smart District Heating
               Smart District Heating
Solar thermal:
  2030: 15 % of decreased heating demand
  2050: 40 % of decreased heating demand - 80 % of
this via district heating
        Smart District Heating




www.solvarmedata.dk
        Smart District Heating




www.solvarmedata.dk
              Smart District Heating

                         Heat prices €/MWh
                O&M: 1%; Net interest rate: 3%; lifetime: 20 years
         70


         60


         50


         40
€ /MWh




         30


         20


         10


         0




                           Heat price est   Heat price meas
        Smart District Heating

                 Heating price

        €/MWh - Solar heat - N-gas
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
 1995     2000     2005      2010    2015
           Smart District Heating


Why so good heat price?
 Low interest rate
 Very cheap and high performing collector fields
 Low cost of land (country side)
 Simple systems – low solar fractions
            Smart District Heating


But it seems cost effective too to go for higher
solar fractions / long term storage:
  Improved storage technology (simple/cheap)
  LARGE SYSTEMS small storage losses &
lower specific costs
  Interaction with liberal electricity market
  Benefits from combining technologies
  Smart District Heating


www.solarmarstal.dk




       Make it big
                                                            Smart District Heating
                          Benefits from combining technologies


                          Relative price of heat
                        140%
Relative heat price %




                        120%
                        100%
                         80%
                         60%
                         40%
                         20%
                          0%
                               0%   20%   40%      60%    80%    100%
                                          RE-fraction %




                                                                                                          Gas
                                                                         HP
                                                                                                         motor
                                35 – 40 000 m²
                                                                                                                         Bio-oil   Load/usage

                                                                50 – 100 000 m3 Very cost effective heat storage (demonstration)
                             Smart District Heating
Interaction with liberal electricity market

          Long term heat storage              Many possibilities   Flexibility

          Winter:
            High electricity price run CHP, earn money make cheap heat
            Low/medium electricity price run heat pump make relatively
          cheap heat

          Summer:
            Low electricity price run solar only make free heat
            Very low electricity price run heat pump make free/cheap heat
                         Smart District Heating
Benefits from combining technologies


                                       CHP:
                                         Produce valuable
                                         electricity earn money
     Solar:                              Fast capacity regulation
       Produce free heat                 (prod.) earn money

     Heat pump:                        Storage:
       Produce cheap heat                 Gives flexibility
       Fast capacity regulation           Makes combinations
     (load) earn money                    possible
       Reduce storage volume
                                                       Smart District Heating


   NEW Danish Solar Thermal Action Plan
                                 Installed annually – m²/year                                        Installed accumulated – m²
                       800 000                                                           9 000 000

                       700 000                                                           8 000 000
                                    Policy assisted (mainly R&D)                                          Policy assisted (mainly R&D)
                                                                                         7 000 000
                       600 000




                                                                       Collector area in m²
Collector area in m²




                                                                                         6 000 000
                       500 000
                                                                                         5 000 000
                       400 000
                                                                                         4 000 000
                       300 000
                                                                                         3 000 000
                       200 000                                                           2 000 000
                       100 000                     Business as usual                     1 000 000                       Business as usual
                            0                                                                   0
         Smart District Heating




http://www.solar-district-heating.eu/   Source: SOLITES
Smart District Heating




                         Source: SOLITES
Smart District Heating




http://www.solar-district-heating.eu/

				
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