28 October 2009 - BRE Bank by zhouwenjuan

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									                                                                                                                                                                Morning Comments
            BRE Bank Securities
                                                                                                                                                      BRE Bank Securities
28 October 2009


                          Equity Market
                          Poland
                                                               Morning Comments
                                                               Institutional Sales and Research:
                                                               M. Marczak (22 6974738)    M. Je ewska (22 6974737)                                K. Kliszcz (22 6974706)
                                                               P. Grzybowski (22 6974717) M. Stokłosa (22 6974741)


Index                Close            Change                    Index                 Close            Change                   Index                       Close            Change
DJIA                 9 882.2          +0.14%                    FTSE 100              5 201.0          +0.18%                   Copper (LME)                6 580.0          -0.45%
S&P 500              1 063.4          -0.33%                    WIG20                 2 330.7          -2.12%                   Crude Oil (Brent) 77.0                       +1.30%
NASDAQ               2 116.1          -1.20%                    BUX                   21 017.6         -2.52%                   USD/PLN                     2.85             +0.69%
DAX                  5 635.0          -0.13%                    PX 50                 1 152.3          -1.43%                   EUR/PLN                     4.21             +0.21%
CAC 40               3 744.0          -0.01%                    PLBonds10             6.17             +0.29%                   EUR/USD                     1.48             -0.48%



Company & Sector Information
Banks                                  Fortis Bank may lay off 361 people through Q2’10
                                       The layoffs, which are a consequence of the merger with Dominet Bank, are scheduled to take
                                       place between Q4’09 and Q2’10. The downsizing is also a part of the turnaround program, aimed at
                                       putting the Bank back in the black in 2010. Its main element, however, are efforts to improve risk
                                       control in all areas of activity. In H1’09, Fortis Bank recorded a loss of PLN 231.9bn. This is one of
                                       the biggest losses in the sector to date. (M. Je ewska)

BPH                                    BPH and GE Money Bank approve merger plan
                                       The shareholders of BPH and GE Money Bank voted unanimously to approve the merger plan. The
                                       Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) is yet to grant its approval; Mr. Wancer, the CEO of BPH,
                                       expects this to happen no later than in early December. Before the end of the year, the legal
                                       aspects of the merger are expected to be solved, and the operational part of the process will end in
                                       H1’10. The merger will make BPH Poland’s 9th biggest bank, with assets of PLN 38bn as of the
                                       end of H1’09. Mr. Wancer presented the shareholders with an estimate of merger synergies: PLN
                                       240m through 2012, of which PLN 108m will come from increased cross-selling, PLN 60m from the
                                       diversification of financing and PLN 72m from cost-cutting. The merger-related expenses will
                                       amount to PLN 170m, with PLN 85m in investment outlays and the reminder in integration
                                       expenses. In line with expectations. Elements of the plan have been known before. No impact
                                       on stock performance. (M. Je ewska)

Getin Holding                          Getin Bank to finance GM Poland and Chevrolet Polska dealer network
Hold - 05/10/09                        Getin Bank signed an agreement under which it will provide financing to the dealer network of
Target price: PLN 9.32                 General Motors Poland and Chevrolet Polska (which comprises 100 dealers in total). The Bank
                                       expects the value of its car loans and leasing to increase by over PLN 250m per year. In Q3’09,
                                       extended PLN 394m worth of car loans (vs. PLN 496m a year earlier). The total for the first nine
                                       months of the year amounts to PLN 1.21bn (vs. PLN 1.39bn a year earlier). Network expansion.
                                       We believe Getin Bank will reduce lending primarily in cash loans, where the cost of risk is
                                       the highest. (M. Je ewska)

Bank Handlowy                          Credit card debt stable in quantity with improving quality
Reduce - 24/08/09                      Bank Handlowy estimates that the changes introduced to its credit card policy, the quality of the
Target price: PLN 59.5                 portfolio has improved, while the overall debt has remained stable. The Bank expects that partner-
                                       issued cards will continue to increase their share of the portfolio. With the revised strategy, fewer
                                       new credit cards may be issued in H2’09 than in H1 (120,000). Perhaps this means that the
                                       costs of credit risk will be declining gradually. (M. Je ewska)

ING BSK                                Ratings confirmed
Accumulate - 24/08/09                  Fitch confirmed the ING BSK’s long-term rating at “A” with a stable outlook. The other ratings have
Target price: PLN 663.6                not been changed either: short-term rating at F1, individual rating at C and support rating at 1. This
                                       follows on the revision to ING Group ratings, which took place after it had announced the plan to
                                       separate its banking and insurance businesses. A technicality. (M. Je ewska)

Noble Bank                             Termination of investment agreement
                                       Noble Bank terminated an investment agreement with three managers and Factor Management
                                       Team, signed on 28 July 2008. In addition, the Bank concluded a separate agreement with FMT for
                                       the sale of 100% registered shares in Introfactor S.A., conditional on Introfactor's repayment of a

28 Bank Securities does not rule out offering brokerage services to an issuer of securities being the subject of a recommendation. Information concerning a conflict of interest arising in
BREOctober 2009
connection with issuing a recommendation (should such a conflict exist) is located on the final page of this report.
                                                                                                                 Morning Comments
        BRE Bank Securities

                          revolving loan to Noble Bank by 30 January 2010. This is a consequence of the merger with
                          Getin Bank, which has had a factoring division for a while. Starting a parallel factoring arm
                          makes no sense with the merger approaching. (M. Je ewska)

CEZ                       Bid for ENSO
Reduce - 18/08/09         CEZ wants to buy a 21.3% stake in the German Company ENSO from Vattenfal. ENSO provides
Target price: PLN 140.6   ca. 10 TWh of energy and 9 TWh of natural gas per year to 400,000 customers. Its majority
                          shareholder is GESO (50.1%), which CEZ is also eying with interest. It is too early now to
                          comment, as we do not know any details of the bid. As we said earlier, GESO could cost ca.
                          EUR 768m. The stake in ENSO is one of GESO’s core assets (in addition to gas transfer
                          infrastructure with capacity of 0.5bn cubic meters and a 35% stake in DREWAG, which
                          supplies 3.5 TWh of energy and 3 TWh of natural gas to end-users). (K. Kliszcz)

PGE                       Offer price set at PLN 23 per share
                          The offer price in PGE’s IPO was set at PLN 23 a share. In addition, a decision was made to
                          increase the retail tranche to 15% of the stock on offer (38.9m shares worth PLN 895m). It is
                          estimated that retail subscriptions will be reduced by 96.5% at allocation. The overall demand at the
                          price of PLN 23 is PLN 45bn, of which PLN 26.5bn is attributed to individual investors. The IPO is
                          capped at PLN 6bn. Shares will be allocated at 2 November, and the WSE debut is planned for 5
                          November. The demand at PLN 23 per share shows that the interest in the offering is huge.
                          This surely bodes well for the first days of trading. We will publish our research report on
                          the Company next week. (K. Kliszcz)

LW Bogdanka               Earnings guidance increased
Hold - 03/09/09           LWB increased its FY2009 earnings guidance. Revenues will total PLN 1.14bn, EBIT PLN 222.5m,
Target price: PLN 68.0    and net income, PLN 178m. The Management says the Company will sell all the coal extracted this
                          year. It is currently being sold at a price higher than previously planned, and this is the reason for
                          the increase in the targets. In its IPO prospectus, the Company forecasted FY2009 revenue at PLN
                          1.09bn, EBIT at PLN 178.3m and net income at PLN 140.6m. In line with the investors
                          expectations and our estimates (PLN 1.16bn, PLN 236m and PLN 184m, respectively). In
                          Q3’09, the Company should generate a net income of PLN 56m (PLN 139m YTD, i.e. virtually
                          equal to the old FY guidance). No impact on stock performance. (M. Marczak)

Agora                     Conflict between publishers and distributors
Accumulate - 04/09/09     Kolporter and Ruch want their agreements with newspaper publishers to be revised towards higher
Target price: PLN 24.1    margins for distribution, or, alternatively, they would like the publishers to participate in the costs of
                          equipping their newsstands. The dispute has been quite heated for six months now and
                          nobody is budging. We do not believe therefore that the conflict will be solved soon. A 1pp
                          change in the margin translates into a PLN 2.2m change in Agora’s operating earnings. We
                          do not, however, expect the potential revision to be so far reaching, given Agora's weight in
                          the distributors’ revenue. (P. Grzybowski)

Asseco Poland             Asseco Poland to net over PLN 350m in FY2009
Buy - 02/09/09            According to the CEO, despite the economic slowdown, AP should increase its net income beyond
Target price: PLN 72.6    PLN 351m, thanks to acquisitions and system-maintenance orders. (P. Grzybowski)

Construction              Good news on railroad construction
                          The CEO of PKP PLK said that his company had already secured PLN 3.7bn for investment in the
                          expansion and modernization of the railroad network in 2010 in domestic funds alone. The
                          company has also secured a PLN 500m subsidy from the European Center for Transportation.
                          Thus, the total is PLN 4.2bn, and, when the additional subsidy applications yet to be filed are
                          thrown in, PLN 5bn. In the subsequent years, the outlays should be even greater, peaking in 2011-
                          2014. In 2009, PKP PLK will invest PLN 3.05bn. In early 2010, the company should invite tenders
                          for several big modernization projects on the Warsaw - Gdańsk and Warsaw - Łódź routes. By the
                          end of Q1 2010, it wants to award all the projects on the Warsaw – Gdańsk – Gdynia route. An
                          important project, for which tenders have already been invited, is stage two of the modernization of
                          the Warsaw – Łódź route at the Warsaw - Skierniewice stretch (PLN 1.5bn). Two other projects are
                          being prepared, and tenders should be invited in H1 2010 (modernization of the Łódź Widzew
                          station and the construction of an underground rail station in Łódź, including the above-ground link
                          with the city). Modernization work will start on several other lines as well (Toruń – Bydgoszcz,
                          Opole – Gliwice, Skar ysko – Sandomierz), where the goal will be to restore the infrastructure to its
                          original standards. Here, the projects will not be as far-reaching as in the case of EU-subsidized
                          projects. In addition, tenders will be invited for the design and construction of the new Warsaw –
                          Radom line. Excellent news for Trakcja Polska. First, project financing has been secured.
                          Second, the fact that further projects are in the works might have a positive impact on the
                          pricing policy as regards the tenders for Działdowo local steering center (both prices and
                          margins expected by bidders might go up). To be sure, PKP PLK has been promising to
                          invite tenders for new projects approximately once every quarter since the start of 2009, but
                          never before has the CEO spoken so decisively. (M. Stokłosa)

28 October 2009                                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                                 Morning Comments
         BRE Bank Securities

Budimex                     Budimex explains Q3 PROVISIONS
Hold - 05/10/09             The CEO of Budimex explained that the considerable increase in provisions recorded in Q3 2009 is
Target price: PLN 78.8      a reflection of the company’s cautious and conservative approach to estimations of expected
                            contract margins, applied to the recently acquired long-term, high-value motorway contracts. The
                            provisions will be reversed in future periods in amounts adequate to realized revenues. Contract
                            value adjustments are made every quarter. In case of the design-and-build motorway
                            contracts mentioned by the CEO, the adjustments could be bigger. We would reiterate our
                            belief that the change of accounting policy with respect to long-term contracts is a way of
                            deferring profits to future years. (M. Stokłosa)

                            Budimex consortium is claiming PLN 1.1 billion from PPL
                            A consortium consisting of Ferrovial Agroman, Estudio Lamela, and Budimex, is calling upon an
                            attempt at settlement of the dispute over the Warsaw airport terminal. The consortium has
                            increased the amount of its claim against airport operator PPL to a whopping 1.1 billion zlotys (of
                            which 40% would go to Budimex). The increase stems from the addition of the market value of the
                            terminal as of 9 November 2007, and a deduction of the contractual fee already paid to the
                            consortium. Before the increase, the claim was PLN 200m. For its part, PPL increased its claim
                            against the consortium from PLN 135.7m to PLN 280m. We do not fully understand the grounds
                            for the huge increase in the consortium’s claim. (M. Stokłosa)

Polimex Mostostal           Polimex makes best bid
Akumuluj - z dn. 04.09.09   Polimex Mostostal and consortium partners Doprastav and Metrostav made the lowest bid on a
Target price: PLN 4.4       contract to build a 23 kilometer stretch of the A4 motorway. The consortium is offering PLN 780m
                            (the total bid is equivalent to 15.9% of Polimex’s expected 2009 revenue). The next lowest offer
                            was submitted by Dragados (PLN 815m). The highest of the seven bids was PLN 995m. National
                            road authority the GDDKiA is expected to open proposals on two further A4 stretches today and
                            tomorrow. Good news from Polimex, and good news for the companies competing for the
                            two other A4 contracts, which include Polimex, Budimex, and Mostostal Warszawa.
                            (M. Stokłosa)

Rafako                      Rafako targeted for acquisition?
Buy - 25/09/09              Today’s Parkiet has a story claiming that Rafako has been targeted by France’s CNIM and Czech’s
Target price: PLN 11.6      J&T Group. CNIM is Europe’s largest manufacturer of waste incineration boilers. J&T Group is a
                            holding of different companies, mainly hailing from the finance industry, but it also holds interests in
                            Slovakian boiler manufacturer SES Tlmace and three other firms catering to the energy industry.
                            Rafako’s shareholders Elektrim and Laris Investments would not confirm or deny that they had
                            plans to sell Rafako. The company’s CEO admits that he has heard rumors about a possible
                            divestment, but he refuses a comment. Asked by Parkiet, the Head of CNIM Babcock Poland
                            denied that his company is considering an investment in Rafako at the moment, saying that he is
                            much more interested in developing the existing partnership with the Polish manufacturer (the two
                            companies are working together in Azerbaijan). Further, a major obstacle to the sale of Rafako
                            shares is the uncertain legal status of the stake held by Laris Investments. Laris seized the shares
                            from Elektrim as payment towards a defaulted PLN 51m loan. Elektrim has sued, and, if the court
                            so orders, Laris will have to give the shares back. Even then, Elektrim’s bankruptcy receiver will not
                            be able to sell them without permission from a judge. Summing up, we do not expect any change
                            in Rafako’s ownership structure before the Laris controversy is resolved . That said, neither
                            CNIM nor J&T is a dream investor in our view. We would rather see a global engineering
                            corporation take a majority stake in Rafako. (M. Stokłosa)

Polnord                     Predicting sales jump in 2011
Buy - 28/09/09              Polnord expects a rebound in sales in 2011m followed by sustained growth in subsequent years.
Target price: PLN 45        The company also believes that it can reap ample gross profits on new developments thanks to low
                            construction costs and the expected turnaround in home prices. The size of home sales is
                            directly linked to the size and attractiveness of the housing offer, which in turn depend on
                            the proceeds of Polnord’s upcoming bond offer. (M. Stokłosa)

                            Polnord assembles housing site
                            With the latest purchase, Polnord assembled 1.7-hectares of the 2.5 hectares of land needed to
                            make a residential development site in Lublin. The company expects to have secured the remaining
                            land by the end of the year. The 12,000 square-meter residential complex will be built in two stages.
                            The cost of the 2.5 hectares is estimated at PLN 5.5m – small change for Polnord. We like
                            that the developer is trying to expand beyond Warsaw, although we are concerned over its
                            lack of presence in the Lublin market. That is why we have a neutral view on the Lublin
                            venture. (M. Stokłosa)




28 October 2009                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                  Morning Comments
          BRE Bank Securities



Third-Quarter Earnings
TPSA                           TPSA disappoints again
Buy - 31/07/09                 TPSA’s 2009 third-quarter earnings missed our estimates and analyst expectations. Weaker-than-
Target price: PLN 19.4         expected sales revenues were depressed by a big drop in mobile sales (-12.6% y/y vs. our
                               expected 9%) and broadband revenues. What is more, both lines reported very disappointing
                               subscriber numbers. The mobile subscriber base lost 32,000 active SIM cards (the operator
                               explains that this is a result of a continued pre-paid user-base cleanup which led to a q/q reduction
                               by 90,000 – it is hard to tell to what extent this explanation is accurate, and to what extent the
                               subscriber shrinkage was caused by competition). For the first time in history, TPSA reported a
                               decrease in the number of users of its flagship broadband service Neostrada (-14,000 Q/Q). An
                               apparent increase in the number of broadband users is owed to 19,000 CDMA additions compared
                               to Q209. On a slightly more positive note, the number of lines given up to alternative operators
                               under WLR laws was lower than in preceding quarters (“only” 78,000 vs. 85,000+ in past quarters).
                               TPSA’s expenses are far from showing any signs of adaptation to new market reality. The company
                               reported a 25% y/y decrease in inter-operator charges, but the main reason for this decrease were
                               reduced mobile termination rates and a quarter-on-quarter appreciation in the zloty. An 11% y/y
                               increase in payroll expenses looks bad against a backdrop of slumping revenues. We assume that
                               TPSA’s dismal third-quarter performance was a consequence of the pressure put on the operator
                               by the telecom regulator in the period. Now that the dominant operator and the regulatory authority
                               have finally reached a deal, we expect TPSA to promptly announce a new strategy plan and cost-
                               streamlining measures. If the Management can convince investors that it has a rescue plan in
                               place, the third-quarter announcement should not much affect TPSA’s stock performance today.
                               Failing such a plan, we will be forced to revise next year’s financial forecasts for TPSA.
                               (M. Marczak)

Actual vs. forecasted consolidated Q309 results
                               Our         Consensus
(PLN m)                      Forecast       Estimates       Actuals     Q3 2008    change      1-3Q2009     1-3Q2008      change
Revenue                       4 110.0        4 122.0        4 058.0     4 539.0    -10.6%       12 555.0    13 586.0       -7.6%
EBITDA                        1 630.0        1 574.0        1 577.0     1 976.0    -20.2%       4 800.0      6 070.0      -20.9%
margin                        39.7%           38.2%             38.9%   43.5%                    38.2%       44.7%
EBIT                          580.0           527.0             529.0    915.0     -42.2%       1 639.0      2 848.0      -42.5%
Pre-tax income                490.0                             421.0    773.0     -45.5%       1 266.0      2 496.0      -49.3%
Net income                    396.9           355.0             327.0    630.0     -48.1%       1 029.0      2 010.0      -48.8%
Source: TPSA, BRE Bank Securities, Consensus estimates by PAP




More News
CAM Media                     After Q3, CAM Media still expects its FY2009 earnings to match last year’s.

Centrozap                     An undisclosed domestic investor will acquire 4.27m P-stock shares issued at nominal price of PLN
                              1 per share. In addition, GEM will acquire 3.15m shares a PLN 1 per share. The company wants to
                              use the proceeds to increase its involvement in Pronox and to continue the construction of a wood
                              processing factory in Komi (Russia).

Comp                          Comp is pleased with its Q3 earnings, it may show a strong y/y improvement in profits. FY earnings
                              should be in line with market expectations. At present, the standalone backlog for H2’09 is PLN
                              86m, and for 2010, PLN 67m. The Company is considering a buyback through a tender offer or
                              several.
                              Comp wants to consolidate its subsidiaries into “competence centers”.
                              By the end of 2009, Comp will announce at least two acquisitions. One of them will be a 51% stake
                              in Cryptotech, currently owned by Asseco Poland. The other company specializes in authorization
                              technologies, and Comp has already signaled this acquisition in its H1 report.

EMC                           EMC is planning to invest over PLN 70m in the expansion of three hospitals in Piaseczno, Katowice
                              and Kowary, using both its own funds and debt. The Company is also discussing further hospital and
                              clinic acquisitions. The Company is planning to provide health services to 2m people by 2015, which
                              is 5% of the total population.

ES-System                     ES-System expects to be in the black in Q3, and the CEO vows this will also be the case in FY.


28 October 2009                                                                                                                    4
                                                                                                          Morning Comments
         BRE Bank Securities

JW Construction          In early 2010, JWC should take over a road construction company. JWC’s construction subsidiaries,
                         including the one to be acquired, might generate revenues of PLN 1bn within two years.

Lentex                   Lentex made Epicentr the sole distributor of its carpeting in the Ukraine. The contract extends
                         through October 2010. Sales will be 3.5m square meters at a minimum. Consideration will be EUR
                         7.5m - EUR 13m.

PGNIG                    PGNiG is not considering a change to gas prices next year.
                         Agreement with Russia on additional gas supplies may be signed this week, but it may be delayed
                         as well. The bone of contention are transit tariffs.

Ropczyce                 The Company and the Polish Agency for Industrial Development signed a PLN 5.5m agreement for
                         a 50% subsidy to an investment project.

Ruch                     Ruch will launch a website that will sell online access to selected newspapers. Tests will begin in
                         December 2009, and the commercial launch will take place in Q2 2010.

Trakcja Polska           PKP PLK has already secured PLN 3.7bn for investment in 2010, wants to spend PLN 5bn total. In
                         early 2010, the company should invite tenders for several big modernization projects on the Warsaw
                         - Gdańsk and Warsaw - Łódź routes (PLN 1.5bn). Outlays will increase further past 2010.

ZPUE                     BGK has cancelled 50% of the company’s “technology loan” (PLN 3.3m).
Insider Trading and Fund Activity
Action                   Supervisory board member sold 8,300 shares at the average price of 12.06 per share.

PEKAO                    An insider bought 1,589 shares for an average PLN 123.06 apiece under the incentive scheme.

PEP                      PZU AM reduced equity interests to 3.44% from 5.15%.

Pol-Aqua                 ING OFE funds reduced equity interests to 2.03% from 7.42%.
                         PPIM reduced equity interest to 3.06% from 11.15%.

Corporate Action Calendar
Wednesday /28.10.09/
KETY                     3Q 2009 report.
PGE                      First day of "B" stock subscriptions by institutions.
TPSA                     3Q 2009 report.
Thursday /29.10.09/
TELL                     97,500 shares of common bearer “A” stock to be floated on WSE
Friday /30.10.09/
PGE                      Last day of subscriptions for “B” stock by institutions.
Monday /02.11.09/
BRE                      WSE listing of 6000 registered shares of ‘E’ stock.

Economic Calendar
Wednesday/28.10.09/
Time       Region        Report                             Period          Forecast             Previous
 0:00      Poland        Reference rate                     October         3.5%                 3.5%
12:00      USA           Mortgage loan applications                                              -13.7%
13:30      USA           Durable goods orders - preliminary September       1.3% m/m             -2.6% m/m
                         Durable goods orders except        September       0.4% m/m             -0.3% m/m
13:30      USA
                         transportation means - preliminary
15:00      USA           New home sales                     September       440,000              429,000
15:30      USA           Changes in crude oil inventories                                        1.3m bbl
16:00      Poland        Minutes of RPP meeting             October
                         Q3 2009 announcements from ConocoPhillips, GlaxoSmithKline, and SAP before US market open,
                         and from Symantec after the close.




28 October 2009                                                                                                           5
                                                                                                     Morning Comments
        BRE Bank Securities

Thursday /29.10.09/
Time      Region        Report                                 Period         Forecast             Previous
11:00     EU            EuroZone Business Climate Indicator    October        -1.95                -2.07
                        Eurozone Economic Confidence           October        84                   82.8
11:00     EU
                        Indicator
11:00     EU            EuroZone Consumer Confidence           October        -18                  -19
13:30     USA           Initial jobless claims                                525,000              531,000
13:30     USA           GDP (annualized) – prel.               Q3             3.2%                 -0.7%
13:30     USA           GDP deflator – prel.                   Q3             0.9% q/q             0% q/q
13:30     USA           Core PCE – prel.                       Q3             1.8% q/q             2% m/m
                        Q3 2009 announcements from Aetna, AstraZeneca, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Eastman Kodak, El
                        Paso, France Telecom, Motorola, Office Depot, and Procter & Gamble before US market open.
Friday/ 30.10.09/
Time      Region        Report                               Period          Forecast            Previous
11:00     EU            Unemployment rate                    September       9.7%                9.6%
11:00     EU            HICP – prel.                         October         -0.1% y/y           -0.3% y/y
13:30     USA           ECI (employment cost index)          Q3              0.4% q/q            0.4% q/q
13:30     USA           Personal Income                      September       0.1% m/m            0.2% m/m
13:30     USA           Personal Spending                    September       -0.5% m/m           1.3% m/m
13:30     USA           Core PCE                             September       0.2% m/m            0.1% m/m
14:45     USA           Chicago PMI                          October         49                  46.1
14:55     USA           University of Michigan Index - final October         70                  73.5
                        Q3 2009 earnings announcements from Alcatel-Lucent, Chevron, and Sanofi-Aventis before US
                        market open.
Monday /02.11.09/
Time      Region        Report                                   Period     Forecast             Previous
9:00      Poland        PMI Industry                             October                         48.2
9:58      EU            PMI Industry – fin                       October    50.7                 49.3
10:00     Poland        Ministry of Finance inflation projection October                         3.5% y/y
16:00     USA           ISM Manufacturing Index                  October                         52.6
16:00     USA           Construction Spending                    September                       0.8% m/m
16:00     USA           Pending Home Sales                       September                       6.4% m/m
                        Third-quarter announcement from Loews before US market open.
Tuesday /03.11.09/
Time      Region        Report                              Period        Forecast               Previous
16:00     USA           Durable Goods Orders - fin          September                            -2.6% m/m
16:00     USA           Factory Orders                      September                            -0.8% m/m
16:00     USA           Factory Orders Ex-Trans - fin       September                            -0.3% m/m
                        Third-quarter announcements from BMW and UBS before US market open.




28 October 2009                                                                                                     6
                                                                                              Morning Comments
        BRE Bank Securities




                              Current recommendations of BRE Bank Securities S.A.
                                                      Target    Current                     Price on      P/E
Company                         Recommendation                             Date issued
                                                       price      price                  report date     2009
AB                              Buy                    15.13       11.85    2009-08-06         11.55       9.4
ACTION                          Buy                    14.59       11.65    2009-09-18         12.60       6.4
AGORA                           Accumulate             24.10       20.01    2009-09-04         21.88      30.9
ASBIS                           Hold                    4.33        4.58    2009-10-16          4.70
ASSECO POLAND                   Buy                    72.60       59.00    2009-09-02         61.50      13.1
BUDIMEX                         Hold                   78.80       82.00    2009-10-05         81.25      13.3
BZWBK                           Hold                  152.10      164.00    2009-10-05        151.10      18.5
CEZ                             Reduce                140.60      146.00    2009-08-18        155.00       9.7
CIECH                           Hold                   41.70       38.60    2009-10-06         39,90      29.2
CYFROWY POLSAT                  Hold                   14.55       14.37    2009-05-29         14.25      13.0
DOM DEVELOPMENT                 Accumulate             49.80       45.00    2009-09-28         44,59      12.3
ELEKTROBUDOWA                   Hold                  170.80      174.00    2009-08-14        171,00      15.7
EMPERIA HOLDING                 Hold                   70.30       65.00    2009-09-04         72.30      10.7
ERBUD                           Hold                   49.30       43.85    2009-09-04         49.00      13.6
EUROCASH                        Hold                    9.90       14.00    2009-05-06          9,81      17.4
GETIN                           Hold                    9.32        8.42    2009-10-05          9,00      26.7
HANDLOWY                        Reduce                 59.50       63.15    2009-08-24         64.30      23.1
ING BSK                         Accumulate            663.60      668.00    2009-08-24        600.00      16.4
J.W. CONSTRUCTION               Buy                    13.60       11.57    2009-09-28         11,66       3.9
KĘTY                            Buy                   109.40      106.10    2008-08-04         79,80      15.2
KGHM                            Reduce                 73.00       97.10    2009-08-14         84.90       8.5
KOMPUTRONIK                     Hold                   10.48       12.75    2009-05-29         10,30      25.6
KREDYT BANK                     Hold                   11.76       12.70    2009-10-05         11.65     117.3
LOTOS                           Accumulate             25.80       27.40    2009-09-22         24.05       5.9
LW BOGDANKA                     Hold                   68.00       73.90    2009-09-03         67.50      13.7
MILLENNIUM                      Buy                     5.30        5.01    2009-10-05          4.40     102.0
MONDI                           Hold                   56.00       72.00    2009-09-03         51,00      56.1
MOSTOSTAL WARSZAWA              Accumulate             84.70       69.00    2009-09-09         77,05      11.2
NETIA                           Hold                    4.10        4.30    2009-08-06          4,13
PBG                             Accumulate            224.40      229.00    2009-10-05        210.00      15.2
PEKAO                           Hold                  154.40      163.00    2009-10-05        148.20      18.6
PGNiG                           Hold                    3.67        3.61    2009-09-03          3,75      20.4
PKN ORLEN                       Buy                    38.20       31.65    2009-09-16         27,15      13.5
PKO BP                          Hold                   32.00       34.50    2009-08-24         34.99      21.5
POLICE                          Hold                    5.90        6.52    2009-09-04          6.09
POLIMEX MOSTOSTAL               Accumulate              4.40        3.75    2009-09-04          4.11      11.3
POLNORD                         Buy                    45.00       35.50    2009-09-28         37.43      36.2
RAFAKO                          Buy                    11.60        8.75    2009-09-25          9.74      17.8
SYGNITY                         Hold                   15.50       11.90    2009-10-02         14.90
TELEKOMUNIKACJA POLSKA          Buy                    19.40       18.80    2009-07-31         15,10      15.9
TRAKCJA POLSKA                  Buy                     4.80        3.86    2009-08-14          3,90       9.6
TVN                             Accumulate             16.00       15.00    2009-09-04         13.40      16.2
ULMA CONSTRUCCION POLSKA        Reduce                 58.80       61.80    2009-10-05         67.05      68.4
UNIBEP                          Reduce                  6.10        6.70    2009-10-05          7.35      12.5
WSiP                            Hold                   17.20       16.00    2009-09-03         16,61      13.0
ZA PUŁAWY                       Hold                   82.70       74.60    2009-05-28         80.40      11.2




28 October 2009                                                                                              7
                                                                                                                                            Morning Comments
            BRE Bank Securities


CEE bank valuations /27.10.2009/
                                                 P/E                              ROE                               P/BV                       D/Y
                         Price       2008            2009     2010     2008        2009        2010         2008     2009    2010       2008       2009    2010
                                                                       POLISH BANKS
BZ WBK                    164.0       14.0           18.5      16.4    18%         12%             12%       2.4      2.1      1.9      1.8%       0.0%    0.0%
Getin                       8.4       11.8           26.7      13.4    15%          6%             11%       1.7      1.6      1.4      0.0%       0.0%    0.0%
Handlow y                  63.2       13.7           23.1      20.0    11%          6%             7%        1.5      1.4      1.3      7.5%       0.0%    3.0%
ING BSK                   668.0       19.5           16.4      16.4    11%         12%             11%       2.1      1.8      1.6      1.8%       0.0%    0.0%
Kredyt Bank                12.7       10.6       117.3         29.7    13%          1%             4%        1.3      1.3      1.2      4.1%       0.0%    0.0%
Millenium                   5.0       10.3       102.0         17.7    16%          1%             8%        1.5      1.5      1.4      3.8%       0.0%    0.0%
Pekao                     163.0       12.1           18.6      16.1    23%         13%             14%       2.7      2.3      2.2      5.9%       0.0%    2.7%
PKO BP                     34.5       11.1           21.5      18.1    24%         12%             12%       2.5      2.3      2.2      3.2%       4.3%    3.3%
Median                                11.9           22.3      17.0    15%          9%             11%       1.9      1.7      1.5      3.5%       0.0%    0.0%
                                                                INVESTORS IN POLISH BANKS
AIB                         2.1          2.4            -         -     7%              -            -       0.2      0.2      0.3     15.6%       0.0%    0.0%
BCP                         1.0       10.3           11.1       9.8     7%          7%             8%        0.9      0.9      0.8      2.8%       3.9%    4.3%
Commerzbank                 7.5       56.1              -         -     3%              -            -       0.4      0.5      0.5      0.0%       0.0%    1.8%
ING                         9.0            -         11.5       5.8     3%          7%             12%       0.6      0.7      0.6      7.9%       2.3%    4.8%
KBC                        30.1            -         10.4       7.9          -      6%             9%        0.8      0.8      0.7      5.9%       4.0%    4.5%
UCI                         2.4          8.2         15.5      13.2     7%          5%             5%        0.6      0.6      0.6      1.8%       1.8%    2.8%
Median                                   9.2         11.3       8.9     7%          7%             9%        0.6      0.7      0.6      4.3%       2.1%    3.6%
                                                                       FOREIGN BANKS
BEP                         6.4          7.1         10.5      11.0    18%         12%             11%       1.2      1.1      1.0      7.4%       4.8%    4.7%
Deutsche Bank              50.2            -         14.0      10.4          -      8%             9%        0.9      0.9      0.9      1.5%       2.0%    3.1%
Erste Bank                 28.5          8.5         14.7      12.6    13%          6%             33%       0.9      0.9      0.9      2.2%       1.3%    1.4%
Komercni B.             3646.0        10.8           14.1      13.8    24%         17%             17%       2.5      2.2      2.1      5.2%       3.8%    4.1%
OTP                     5337.0           6.0         11.8       9.8    25%         11%             11%       1.3      1.2      1.0      2.6%       1.7%    2.0%
Santander                  11.4          8.9         12.1      11.7    16%         13%             11%       1.4      1.5      1.4      5.7%       4.7%    4.6%
Turkiye Garanti B.          6.2       14.2           15.1      12.7    23%         17%             17%       2.8      2.3      2.0      0.6%       0.5%    1.3%
Turkiye Halk B.             9.5       10.2           11.4       9.9    26%         21%             21%       2.6      2.3      2.0      5.1%       4.3%    4.3%
Sbierbank                   2.3       14.2           45.3      22.0    16%          8%             9%        2.1      2.2      2.0      0.6%       0.4%    0.4%
VTB Bank                    4.3     868.0               -     100.9    0.3%             -      0.8%          1.0      1.3      1.3      0.8%       0.2%    0.3%
Median                                10.2           14.0      12.1    18%         12%             11%       1.3      1.4      1.4      2.4%       1.9%    2.6%


Oil&Gas producer valuations /27.10.2009/
                                     EV/EBITDA                        EV/S                          P/E              EBITDA m argin                 D/Y
                        Price     2008     2009       2010    2008    2009       2010   2008        2009    2010    2008    2009     2010   2008    2009   2010
                                                                       OIL COMPANIES
Lotos                    27.4     39.7     14.0        13.0     0.4    0.7        0.6          -      5.9    14.7     1%     5%       5%    0.0%    0.0%   0.0%
PKN Orlen                31.7     32.5         7.7      7.0     0.4    0.5        0.4          -     13.5    10.8     1%     6%       6%    5.1%    0.0%   0.0%
MOL med.              16280.0      5.7         6.0      5.2     0.7    0.9        0.8        7.6     14.9     9.7    12%    16%      16%    3.6%    2.2%   3.1%
OMV med.                 29.0      3.1         4.5      3.7     0.5    0.7        0.6        4.6      9.7     7.2    16%    15%      17%    4.3%    3.3%   3.7%
Hellenic Petroleum*        8.2     6.9         8.6      8.1     0.4    0.5        0.5       10.0     13.2    12.3     5%     6%       6%    5.1%    4.8%   5.6%
Tupras*                  27.0      3.9         5.9      5.2     0.2    0.3        0.3        7.9     10.4     7.9     5%     5%       5% 13.9%      7.9%   8.5%
Unipetrol*              137.7      4.5         4.3      3.9     0.3    0.3        0.3       26.0     15.2    11.9     6%     8%       8%    9.7%    3.7%   3.5%
Median                            19.1         6.8      6.1     0.5    0.7        0.6        6.1     11.6    10.2     6%    11%      11%    3.9%    1.1%   1.6%
                                                                      GAS COMAPNIES
PGNiG                      3.6     9.2         8.1      5.8     1.1    1.2        1.2       23.5     20.4    13.7    12%    15%      20%    5.3%    2.5%   2.4%
Gazprom                 187.1      3.0         4.6      4.5     1.3    1.8        1.6        4.1      6.4     5.8    45%    38%      36%    1.8%    1.3%   1.6%
GDF Suez                 29.2      4.8         4.6      4.3     0.8    0.8        0.8       11.2     12.5    11.4    17%    17%      18%    6.7%    5.5%   5.6%
Gas Natural SDG          13.8      3.9         2.6      2.4     0.8    0.6        0.6        6.9      8.7     8.3    21%    23%      23%    7.9%    6.2%   6.6%
Median                             4.4         4.6      4.4     1.0    1.0        1.0        9.1     10.6     9.8    19%    20%      22%    6.0%    4.0%   4.0%
* companies not included in minimum, maximum and median
Source: BRE Bank Securities for Polish companies, IBES/Bloomberg for foreign companies

28 October 2009                                                                                                                                              8
                                                                                                                                                         Morning Comments
             BRE Bank Securities


European national operator valuations /27.10.2009/
                                    EV/EBITDA                            EV/S                              P/E                  EBITDA m argin                  D/Y
                     Price     2008 2009             2010      2008          2009       2010       2008    2009 2010           2008       2009   2010    2008   2009      2010
                                                                             POLISH COMPANIES
Netia                  4.3         8.7       5.5         5.1       1.3        1.0        1.0        7.3          -     -       15%        18%     19%    0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
TPSA                  18.8         4.1       4.6         4.3       1.7        1.8        1.7       11.8     15.9 13.7          42%        39%     40%    9.1%   8.0%      7.6%
Median                             6.4       5.0         4.7       1.5        1.4        1.3        9.5     15.9 13.7          29%        29%     30%    4.5%   4.0%      3.8%
                                                                                     MID CAPS
Belgacom              27.1         5.3       5.4         5.6       1.8        1.8        1.8       10.4     11.1 11.3          33%        32%     32%    7.5%   7.4%      7.4%
Cesky Telecom        433.0         5.0       5.2         5.2       2.2        2.2        2.2       12.3     11.9 11.3          44%        43%     43% 11.5% 11.0% 10.0%
Hellenic Telekom      12.4         5.0       4.9         4.9       1.8        1.8        1.8        9.6      9.1     8.6       35%        37%     37%    6.3%   6.5%      7.0%
Matav                815.0         4.5       4.6         4.8       1.8        1.8        1.9       10.0     10.2 10.3          39%        39%     39%    9.4%   9.2%      9.3%
Portugal Telecom       7.8         5.4       5.5         5.4       1.9        2.0        1.9       12.8     13.1 11.9          36%        36%     36%    7.4%   6.6%      6.7%
Telecom Austria       11.9         6.8       5.1         5.1       1.8        1.9        1.9       12.4     12.2 10.9          27%        37%     37%    6.3%   6.3%      6.5%
Median                             5.2       5.2         5.2       1.8        1.9        1.9       11.3     11.5 11.1          36%        37%     37%     7%      7%       7%
                                                                                     BIG CAPS
BT                     1.3         2.9       3.5         3.2       0.8        0.8        0.8        5.7      9.6 10.0          28%        23%     25% 11.8%     6.0%      5.4%
DT                     9.5         4.3       4.1         4.2       1.4        1.3        1.3       13.1     12.8 12.6          31%        31%     31%    8.4%   8.2%      8.3%
FT                    17.7         4.6       4.8         4.9       1.6        1.7        1.7        8.8      9.1     9.0       36%        35%     35%    7.9%   8.1%      8.4%
KPN                   12.4         6.5       6.4         6.1       2.3        2.3        2.3       15.2     13.8 11.8          35%        36%     37%    4.9%   5.6%      6.4%
Sw isscom            374.0         6.5       6.7         6.7       2.6        2.6        2.6       11.2     10.6 10.6          39%        39%     39%    5.6%   6.0%      6.4%
TELEFONICA            18.9         6.2       6.2         6.2       2.4        2.4        2.4       11.9     11.2 10.5          39%        39%     39%    5.2%   6.1%      6.6%
TeliaSonera           47.7         8.2       7.5         7.2       2.6        2.3        2.3       11.7     11.2 10.6          31%        31%     32%    4.3%   4.1%      4.6%
TI                     1.1         5.2       5.2         5.2       2.0        2.0        2.0       10.2     11.1 10.6          38%        39%     39%    5.4%   4.6%      4.8%
Median                             5.7       5.7         5.7       2.1        2.2        2.2       11.5     11.1 10.6          35%        36%     36%    5.5%   6.0%      6.4%

Media company valuations /27.10.2009/
                                         EV/EBITDA                            EV/S                         P/E                  EBITDA m argin                  D/Y
                       Price        2008      2009        2010     2008       2009       2010      2008    2009      2010       2008      2009   2010    2008    2009     2010
                                                                              POLISH COMPANIES
AGORA                     20.0       7.7           7.6     5.5       0.8        0.8       0.8       47.0    30.9     16.9       10%       11%    14%    0.0%     1.6% 3.0%
CYFROWY POLSAT            14.4      10.6           9.1     7.1       3.2        2.6       2.4       14.3    13.0     10.1       31%       29%    34%    1.0%     4.6% 5.1%
TVN                       15.0       8.8       11.8       11.8       3.3        3.4       3.0       14.4    16.2     19.4       37%       29%    26%    2.3%     3.8% 3.1%
                                                                                         DAILY
Daily Mail                   4.2     6.8           8.0     7.9       1.1        1.2       1.2        8.9    11.9     11.7       17%       15%    15%    3.7%     3.3% 3.3%
Gruppo Editorial             1.9     6.7       10.7        9.6       1.0        1.2       1.2       15.9    46.4     35.3       16%       11%    12%    0.0%     0.4% 1.7%
Mcclatchy                    3.2     6.9       11.4       13.3       1.4        1.8       1.9        5.3         -         -    21%       15%    15%    18.1%    2.8%        -
New York Times               9.7     7.1       10.9       10.0       0.8        0.9       1.0       14.0         -         -    11%        8%    10%    7.7%     0.0% 0.0%
SPIR Comm                 20.5       3.0           4.1     4.0       0.3        0.3       0.3        8.4    13.3     10.2       10%        8%     8%    9.5%     7.4% 8.0%
Trinity Mirror               1.7     4.5           6.0     6.1       0.9        1.0       1.0        5.4    10.2     10.0       20%       17%    17%    3.2%     0.2% 0.2%
Washington Post          452.9           -           -         -         -          -          -    16.6    27.5     17.1             -      -      -       -         -      -
Median                               6.7           9.3     8.8       1.0        1.1       1.1        8.9    13.3     11.7       16%       13%    13%     5.7%    1.6% 1.7%
                                                                                          TV
Antena 3 Televis             5.7     7.2       16.6       13.0       1.5        1.8       1.8       12.4    29.6     21.6       21%       11%    14%    7.7%     3.2% 3.6%
BSkyB PLC                    5.4    11.2       10.1        8.9       2.2        2.1       1.9       21.1    20.6     16.6       20%       20%    22%    3.0%     3.2% 3.5%
Canal Plus                   5.7     6.3           6.1     6.0       0.3        0.3       0.3       15.4    15.3     14.6        5%        5%     4%    4.4%     4.6% 4.8%
ITV PLC                      0.5     9.9       14.6       12.5       1.2        1.4       1.4       17.6    65.5     38.2       13%       10%    11%    2.6%     0.7% 0.4%
M6-Metropole Tel          16.9       8.5           8.6     8.6       1.6        1.6       1.6       17.4    18.0     17.7       18%       19%    18%    5.1%     4.7% 4.6%
Mediaset SPA                 4.6     3.8           4.8     4.7       1.4        1.5       1.4       12.0    17.4     16.8       36%       30%    30%    8.1%     5.9% 6.0%
TF1-TV Francaise          11.3       9.2       25.5       27.0       1.1        1.3       1.3       17.0         -         -    12%        5%     5%    6.6%     2.5% 1.9%
Median                               8.5       10.1        8.9       1.4        1.5       1.4       17.0    19.3     17.2       18%       11%    14%     5.1%    3.2% 3.6%
Source: BRE Bank Securities for Polish companies, IBES/Bloomberg for foreign companies




28 October 2009                                                                                                                                                             9
                                                                                                                                         Morning Comments
            BRE Bank Securities


IT company valuations /27.10.2009/
                                        EV/EBITDA                   EV/S                         P/E               EBITDA margin                D/Y
                        Price    2008 2009          2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010                                   2008    2009   2010
                                                                 POLISH COMPANIES
AB                        11.9     4.4     9.0       6.8     0.1        0.1     0.1     6.8        9.4      7.9    3%     1%     2%     0.0%    0.0%   0.0%
ACTION                    11.7     5.3     4.9       7.3     0.1        0.1     0.1     5.9        6.4      9.4    3%     2%     2%     2.2% 11.8%     3.1%
ASBIS                      4.6     5.9     9.5       5.3     0.1        0.1     0.1    22.2            -   11.9    1%     1%     1% 10.1%       0.0%   0.0%
ASSECO POLAND             59.0     7.9     7.6       6.9     1.7        1.6     1.5    14.2       13.1     12.5    21%    21%    21%    1.7%    2.3%   2.4%
KOMPUTRONIK               12.8     8.0    15.5       7.6     0.2        0.2     0.2    18.5       25.6     11.0    2%     1%     2%     0.0%    0.0%   0.0%
SYGNITY                   11.9     2.8       -       6.8     0.2        0.2     0.3          -         -      -    6%       -    4%     0.0%    0.0%   0.0%
Median                             5.6     9.0       6.9     0.2        0.2     0.2    14.2       11.3     11.0    3%     1%     2%     0.9%    0.0%   0.0%
                                                                 FOREIGN COMPANIES
Accenture                 37.4     6.0     6.0       6.0     0.9        0.9     0.9    14.1       14.3     13.8    15%    16%    16%    1.1%    1.3%   1.3%
Atos Origin               33.4     5.5     6.4       5.8     0.5        0.5     0.5    14.2       17.2     13.8    9%     8%     9%     1.3%    0.3%   0.6%
CapGemini                 33.4     4.3     5.3       5.0     0.4        0.4     0.4     9.9       13.5     12.7    10%    8%     9%     3.4%    2.4%   2.6%
IBM                      120.7     8.1     8.4       8.0     1.7        1.9     1.8    13.9       13.2     12.1    21%    22%    23%    1.5%    1.6%   1.7%
Indra Sistemas            16.3     9.1     8.8       8.4     1.2        1.1     1.1    14.7       13.8     13.1    13%    13%    13%    3.5%    3.9%   4.1%
LogicaCMG                  1.2     8.1     8.2       7.9     0.7        0.7     0.7    11.1       12.5     12.0    9%     8%     8%     2.4%    2.4%   2.6%
Microsoft                 28.6     8.7     9.7       9.4     3.8        3.8     3.8    15.2       16.7     15.6    44%    39%    40%    1.5%    1.7%   1.7%
Oracle                    21.9    10.7     9.6       9.6     4.9        4.7     4.6    17.2       15.4     14.7    45%    49%    48%    0.0%    0.1%   0.3%
SAP                       34.4    11.7    11.4      10.1     3.3        3.4     3.2    19.3       19.5     17.0    28%    30%    32%    1.5%    1.5%   1.7%
TietoEnator               14.2     6.0     8.0       6.4     0.6        0.7     0.7    10.9       16.3     12.9    10%    9%     11%    3.7%    2.7%   3.8%
Median                             8.1     8.3       7.9     1.0        1.0     1.0    14.2       14.8     13.5    14%    14%    14%    1.5%    1.7%   1.7%

Construction company valuations /27.10.2009/
                                    EV/EBITDA                    EV/S                            P/E                EBITDA margin               D/Y
                       Price     2008    2009    2010   2008     2009      2010       2008       2009      2010    2008   2009   2010    2008   2009   2010
                                                                   POLISH COMPANIES
Budimex                  82.0    13.1      9.7   10.8      0.5      0.6       0.4     20.0       13.3       15.2    4%     6%      4%    0.0% 7.1% 0.0%
Elektrobudow a          174.0     9.4     10.6   12.0      0.9      0.9       0.9     13.7       15.7       17.4    10%    9%      8%    1.4% 2.1% 1.9%
Erbud                    43.9     7.6      8.0    7.8      0.5      0.5       0.4     53.0       13.6       12.9    7%     6%      5%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mostostal Warszaw a      69.0     9.0      6.0    7.4      0.6      0.4       0.4     19.0       11.2       12.9    6%     7%      6%    0.0% 2.6% 4.5%
PBG                     229.0    14.5     10.5    8.4      1.9      1.3       0.9     19.5       15.2       13.4    13%    12%    11%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Polimex Mostostal         3.8     7.9      7.2    6.7      0.5      0.5       0.5     14.9       11.3       11.8    7%     7%      7%    0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Rafako                    8.8     4.8      5.7    4.2      0.3      0.4       0.3        -       17.8       10.9    7%     7%      6%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Trakcja Polska            3.9     4.9      4.4    5.5      0.4      0.4       0.4     11.3        9.6       12.3    8%     9%      7%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ulma Construccion        61.8     4.9      6.5    5.2      2.1      2.5       2.1     12.6       68.4       20.5    43%    38%    41%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Unibep                    6.7     5.1      8.9    8.6      0.3      0.5       0.4      8.2       12.5       14.7    7%     5%      4%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Median                            7.7      7.6    7.6      0.5      0.5       0.4     14.9       13.4       13.2     7%     7%     7%    0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
                                                                 FOREIGN COMPANIES
Acciona                  86.9     7.0     16.8   13.4      1.6      2.8       2.6     11.2        8.1       20.1    23%    17%    19%    3.8% 3.6% 3.2%
AMEC                      8.3    11.6      9.3    8.8      0.9      0.8       0.8     20.0       17.6       16.2    7%     8%      9%    1.8% 2.0% 2.2%
Bilfinger                45.6     3.7      3.8    3.9      0.2      0.2       0.2      9.4       11.2       11.5    4%     4%      4%    4.6% 4.0% 3.8%
Ferrovial                30.3    13.2     13.6   13.0      2.6      2.7       2.7        -       84.3       33.7    20%    20%    21%    3.9% 4.6% 4.6%
Hochtief                 53.8     5.7      5.4    5.2      0.2      0.2       0.2     23.6       22.1       21.0    4%     4%      4%    2.6% 2.7% 2.7%
NCC                     107.0     4.0      6.7    7.4      0.2      0.2       0.3      6.6       15.8       17.6    5%     4%      4%    4.7% 3.0% 2.9%
Skanska                 103.5     5.4      6.7    7.1      0.2      0.2       0.3     12.3       17.9       19.1    4%     4%      4%    5.1% 4.8% 4.8%
Vinci                    37.2     7.2      7.4    7.5      1.1      1.1       1.1     11.6       12.4       13.0    15%    14%    14%    4.4% 4.2% 4.1%
Median                            6.3      7.0    7.4      0.5      0.5       0.5     11.6       16.7       18.3     6%     6%     6%    4.1% 3.8% 3.5%
Source: BRE Bank Securities for Polish companies, IBES/Bloomberg for foreign companies




28 October 2009                                                                                                                                         10
                                                                                                                                                                  Morning Comments
            BRE Bank Securities


Developers company valuations /27.10.2009/
                                           EV/EBITDA                                 EV/S                          P/E                      EBITDA m argin               D/Y
                        Price 2008               2009         2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010                                           2008   2009    2010    2008   2009      2010
                                                                                     POLISH COMPANIES
Dom Development           45.0           8.2          9.9         42.1         2.0         1.8     2.5      8.1    12.3         44.2       24%     18%       6%   4.5%   1.8%      0.6%
J.W. Construction         11.6           8.0          4.1          1.7         1.7         1.0     0.5      6.2     3.9          2.5       22%     25%    31%     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
Polnord                   35.5      11.3          24.3            31.8         3.1         4.1     3.0      8.3    36.2            -       28%     17%       9%   0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
Median                                   8.2          9.9         31.8         2.0         1.8     2.5      8.1    12.3         23.4        24%    18%       9%   0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
                                                                                 FOREIGN COMPANIES
Barratt Developments         1.4         2.8      37.1            46.5         0.4         0.7     0.8      1.8             -      -       16%      2%       2%   8.8%   0.0%      0.0%
JM AB                    105.8           5.0      19.2            20.0         0.6         1.0     1.0      9.6    36.7         39.5       13%      5%       5%   2.8%   1.4%      1.4%
Kaufman & Broad           17.8           6.6          9.4         11.8         0.5         0.7     0.9    21.6     37.5         44.3        8%      7%       7%   8.5%   0.0%      0.0%
Nexity                    25.1           7.5          9.2         10.5         0.7         0.8     0.9      8.7    13.0         15.0        9%      8%       8%   3.3%   3.3%      2.7%
Persimmon                    4.2         8.9      30.6            28.0         1.1         1.4     1.4    13.7              -      -       12%      5%       5%   1.2%   0.0%      0.1%
Median                                   6.6      19.2            20.0         0.6         0.8     0.9      9.6    36.7         39.5        12%     5%       5%   3.3%   0.0%      0.1%

Paper manufacturer valuations /27.10.2009/
                                     EV/EBITDA                                  EV/S                              P/E                       EBITDA m argin               D/Y
                    Price      2008        2009         2010        2008         2009            2010    2008     2009          2010       2008   2009   2010     2008   2009      2010
                                                                                     POLISH COMPANIES
MONDI                 72.0     12.7            19.8     10.6             2.8         3.4          2.5     25.5     56.1          24.8       22%    17%    24%     0.0%   0.0%      0.4%
                                                                                 FOREIGN COMPANIES
Billerund             37.9         4.5          7.7         4.7          0.6         0.6          0.6      8.7              -     8.8       12%     8%    12%     7.7%   0.0%      1.6%
Holmen              200.0          8.6          8.0         8.1          1.2         1.2          1.2     21.8     18.9          19.8       14%    15%    15%        -   4.5%         -
INTL Paper            22.6         5.4          6.3         6.3          0.6         0.7          0.7     11.4              -    53.6       11%    11%    10%     4.4%   2.0%      1.2%
M-Real                 0.9         9.5         33.5     15.7             0.7         0.9          0.9        -              -          -     8%     3%      6%    5.2%         -      -
Norske Skog            9.5         7.7          7.4         6.8          0.7         0.8          0.8        -              -          -    10%    11%    12%     0.0%   0.0%      0.0%
Portucel EMP.          2.0         6.7          8.1         7.7          1.7         1.7          1.6     10.9     19.8          20.9       25%    21%    21%     4.2%   3.6%      3.0%
Stora Enso             6.8         8.8         12.8     11.1             0.8         1.0          1.0     26.6              -    53.8        9%     8%      9%       -   2.2%      2.2%
Svenska               99.8         7.3          7.4         6.7          1.0         1.0          0.9     13.4     16.8          14.1       13%    13%    14%     4.3%   3.5%      3.6%
UPM-Kymmene            7.8         6.3          9.2         7.8          0.9         1.0          1.0     14.5              -    42.9       14%    11%    13%     5.8%   4.7%      4.6%
Median                             7.3          8.0         7.7          0.8         1.0          0.9     13.4     18.9          20.9       12%    11%    12%     4.4%   2.8%      2.2%

Mining company valuations /27.10.2009/
                                    EV/EBITDA                                   EV/S                              P/E                      EBITDA m argin                D/Y
                    Price     2008         2009        2010         2008         2009        2010        2008     2009          2010       2008   2009   2010     2008   2009      2010
                                                                                     POLISH COMPANIES
KGHM                  97.1         4.3          5.7         7.1          1.6         1.8         1.8      6.7      8.5          10.6       36%    32%    25%      9.3% 12.0%       4.7%
                                                                                 FOREIGN COMPANIES
Anglo Amer.           22.7         3.2          7.2         6.1          1.3         1.7         1.6      4.6     17.3          13.1       39%    24%    27%      5.7%   1.8%      1.4%
BHP Billiton          17.8         3.7          5.0         6.2          1.9         2.1         2.5      6.4     10.1          12.2       51%    43%    40%      3.4%   4.6%      4.7%
Freeport-MCMOR        77.5         5.4         10.3         8.3          2.1         3.4         3.0     14.8     68.2          25.3       38%    33%    36%      2.3%   0.0%      0.0%
Phelps Dodge        129.5          7.6            -           -          2.9           -           -      9.1           -          -       37%       -       -    0.8%         -      -
Rio Tinto             28.7         3.5          5.8         5.5          1.3         1.8         1.8      3.7      8.4           7.5       38%    31%    33%      4.7%   4.7%      4.8%
Southern Peru         33.3         9.9         25.1     16.0             5.4     10.1            7.7     17.4     52.1          28.1       55%    40%    48%      5.8%   1.3%      1.7%
Median                             4.6          7.2         6.2          2.0         2.1         2.5      7.8     17.3          13.1       39%    33%    36%      4.1%   1.8%      1.7%
Source: BRE Bank Securities for Polish companies, IBES/Bloomberg for foreign companies




28 October 2009                                                                                                                                                                      11
                                                                                                                                                Morning Comments
            BRE Bank Securities

WIG Banks index vs. WIG 20 index (EUR)                                            OTP and Komercni’s relative performance vs. WIG Banks index (EUR)
700                                                                                1800


640                                                                                1580


580                                                                                1360


520                                                                                1140


460                                                                                 920
                                                                                                       WIG Banks                      OTP relativ e
              WIG 20          WIG Banks relativ e                                                      Komercni relativ e
400                                                                                 700
 2009-08-05            2009-08-31             2009-09-24           2009-10-20        2009-08-05             2009-08-31            2009-09-24              2009-10-20




Oil&Gas

        0
  2004-08-01     2005-02-01      2005-08-01     2006-02-01   2006-08-01      2007-02-01   2007-08-01      2008-02-01     2008-08-01      2009-02-01   2009-08-01
       -2


       -4


       -6


       -8


                                                                               BRENT
  150

  120

   90

   60

   30
  2004-08-01     2005-02-01     2005-08-01     2006-02-01    2006-08-01      2007-02-01   2007-08-01     2008-02-01      2008-08-01      2009-02-01   2009-08-01


                                                                 MARGIN BRENT/NWE 3:2:1
      30
      25
      20
      15
      10
       5
       0
      -5
  2004-08-01     2005-02-01      2005-08-01     2006-02-01   2006-08-01      2007-02-01   2007-08-01      2008-02-01     2008-08-01      2009-02-01   2009-08-01




TPSA vs. BETELES - Bloomberg Europe 500 Telecom Services National operator quotations: TPSA, Hungarian Magyar Telecom
Index (EUR)                                              and Czech SPT (EUR)

5.5                                                                                 5.5


4.9                                                                                 4.9


4.3                                                                                 4.3


3.7                                                                                 3.7


3.1                                                                                 3.1

                 TPSA               Matav relativ e          SPT relativ e                             TPSA            Matav relativ e            SPT relativ e
2.5                                                                                 2.5
2009-08-05             2009-08-31              2009-09-24            2009-10-20      2009-08-05             2009-08-31            2009-09-24              2009-10-20


Source: Bloomberg



28 October 2009                                                                                                                                                    12
                                                                                                                                 Morning Comments
         BRE Bank Securities

WIG Media index vs. WIG 20 index (EUR)                                  WIG IT index vs. MSCI

650                                                                     350


590                                                                     330


530                                                                     310


470                                                                     290


410                                                                     270


               WIG 20            WIG Media relativ e                                  WIG IT          MSCI relativ e
350                                                                     250
 2009-08-05            2009-08-31           2009-09-24     2009-10-20    2009-08-05            2009-08-31           2009-09-24         2009-10-20




WIG Construction index vs. WIG 20 index (EUR)                           WIG Developers index vs. WIG 20 index (EUR)

600                                                                     750


560                                                                     660


520                                                                     570


480                                                                     480


440                                                                     390

              WIG 20         WIG Construction relativ e                               WIG 20         WIG Dev elopers relativ e
400                                                                     300
 2009-08-05             2009-08-31          2009-09-24     2009-10-20    2009-08-05            2009-08-31           2009-09-24         2009-10-20




Copper price on LME                                                     KGHM vs. mining&metal sector index (USD)

7000                                                                    450
USD/t

6300                                                                    410


5600                                                                    370


4900                                                                    330


4200                                                                    290

                3M                                                                    mining&metal          KGHM relativ e
3500                                                                    250
 2009-04-28             2009-06-25         2009-08-20     2009-10-16     2009-08-05            2009-08-31           2009-09-24         2009-10-20

Source: Bloomberg




28 October 2009                                                                                                                                 13
                                                                                                                       Morning Comments
        BRE Bank Securities




                                             Michał Marczak tel. (+48 22) 697 47 38
                                             Managing Director
                                             Head of Research
                                             michal.marczak@dibre.com.pl
                                             Strategy, Telco, Mining, Metals, Media



  Research Department:                                                Sales and Trading:

  Marta Je ewska tel. (+48 22) 697 47 37                              Piotr Dudziński tel. (+48 22) 697 48 22
  Deputy Director                                                     Director
  marta.jezewska@dibre.com.pl                                         piotr.dudzinski@dibre.com.pl
  Banks
                                                                      Marzena Łempicka-Wilim tel. (+48 22) 697 48 95
                                                                      Deputy Director
  Analysts:                                                           marzena.lempicka@dibre.com.pl
  Kamil Kliszcz tel. (+48 22) 697 47 06
                                                                      Traders:
  kamil.kliszcz@dibre.com.pl
  Fuels, Chemicals, Retail
                                                                      Emil Onyszczuk tel. (+48 22) 697 49 63
                                                                      emil.onyszczuk@dibre.com.pl
  Piotr Grzybowski tel. (+48 22) 697 47 17
  piotr.grzybowski@dibre.com.pl
                                                                      Grzegorz Stępien tel. (+48 22) 697 48 62
  IT, Media
                                                                      grzegorz.stepien@dibre.com.pl
  Maciej Stokłosa tel. (+48 22) 697 47 41
                                                                      Tomasz Dudź tel. (+48 22) 697 49 68
  maciej.stoklosa@dibre.com.pl
                                                                      tomasz.dudz@dibre.com.pl
  Construction, Developers
                                                                      Michał Jakubowski tel. (+48 22) 697 47 44
                                                                      michal.jakubowski@dibre.com.pl

                                                                      Tomasz Jakubiec tel. (+48 22) 697 47 31
                                                                      tomasz.jakubiec@dibre.com.pl

                                                                      Grzegorz Strublewski tel. (+48 22) 697 48 76
                                                                      grzegorz.strublewski@dibre.com.pl

                                                                      "Private Broker"

                                                                      Jacek Szczepański tel. (+48 22) 697 48 26
                                                                      Director
                                                                      jacek.szczepanski@dibre.com.pl

                                                                      Paweł Szczepanik tel. (+48 22) 697 49 47
                                                                      Sales
                                                                      pawel.szczepanik@dibre.com.pl



                                                                      Dom Inwestycyjny
                                                                      BRE Banku S.A.
                                                                      ul. Wspólna 47/49
                                                                      00-950 Warszawa
                                                                      www.dibre.com.pl




28 October 2009                                                                                                                      14
                                                                                                                          Morning Comments
        BRE Bank Securities

       List of abbreviations and ratios contained in the report.
       EV – net debt + market value (EV – economic value)
       EBIT – Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
       EBITDA – EBIT + Depreciation and Amortisation
       PBA – Profit on Banking Activity
       P/CE – price to earnings with amortisation
       MC/S – market capitalisation to sales
       EBIT/EV – operating profit to economic value
       P/E – (Price/Earnings) – price divided by annual net profit per share
       ROE – (Return on Equity) – annual net profit divided by average equity
       P/BV – (Price/Book Value) – price divided by book value per share
       Net debt – credits + debt papers + interest bearing loans – cash and cash equivalents
       EBITDA margin – EBITDA/Sales

       Recommendations of BRE Bank Securities S.A.
       A recommendation is valid for a period of 6-9 months, unless a subsequent recommendation is issued within this period. Expected
       returns from individual recommendations are as follows:
       BUY – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will be at least 15%
       ACCUMULATE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from 5% to 15%
       HOLD – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from –5% to +5%
       REDUCE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from -5% to -15%
       SELL – we expect that an investment will bear a loss greater than 15%
       Recommendations are updated at least once every nine months.

       The present report expresses the knowledge as well as opinions of the authors on day the report was prepared. The opinions and
       estimates contained herein constitute our best judgement at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. The
       present report was prepared with due care and attention, observing principles of methodological correctness and objectivity, on the
       basis of sources available to the public, which BRE Bank Securities S.A. considers reliable, including information published by
       issuers, shares of which are subject to recommendations. However, BRE Bank Securities S.A., in no case, guarantees the accuracy
       and completeness of the report, in particular should sources on the basis of which the report was prepared prove to be inaccurate,
       incomplete or not fully consistent with the facts.

       This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments and neither this
       document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. It is being furnished to you
       solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document nor any copy hereof is
       not to be distributed directly or indirectly in the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan.

       Recommendations are based on essential data from the entire history of a company being the subject of a recommendation, with
       particular emphasis on the period since the previous recommendation.

       Investing in shares is connected with a number of risks including, but not limited to, the macroeconomic situation of the country,
       changes in legal regulations as well as changes on commodity markets. Full elimination of these risks is virtually impossible.
       BRE Bank Securities S.A. bears no responsibility for investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report or for any
       damages incurred as a result of investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report.

       It is possible that BRE Bank Securities S.A. renders, will render or in the past has rendered services for companies and other
       entities mentioned in the present report.

       BRE Bank Securities S.A., its shareholders and employees may hold long or short positions in the issuers’ shares or other financial
       instruments related to the issuers’ shares. BRE Bank Securities S.A., its affiliates and/or clients may conduct or may have
       conducted transactions for their own account or for account of another with respect to the financial instruments mentioned in this
       report or related investments before the recipient has received this report.

       Copying or publishing the present report, in full or in part, or disseminating in any way information contained in the present report
       requires the prior written agreement of BRE Bank Securities S.A. Recommendations are addressed to all Clients of BRE Bank
       Securities S.A.
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       BRE Bank Securities S.A. serves as animator in relation to the shares of the following companies: Certyfikaty Skarbiec
       Nieruchomości, Erbud, Es-System, LW Bogdanka, Macrologic, Magellan, Mieszko, Mondi, Nepentes, Optopol, Pemug, Polimex-
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       BRE Bank Securities S.A. receives remuneration from issuers for services rendered to the following companies: 05 NFI, Agora,
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       GTC, Intergroclin Auto, Izo-Erg, Koelner, Komputronik, LW Bogdanka, Macrologic, Magellan, Mennica, Mercor, Mieszko, Mostostal
       Warszawa, Nepentes, Odlewnia eliwa, Odratrans, Pemug, PGF, PGNiG, Polimex-Mostostal, Polmos Lublin, Polnord, Prokom
       Software, Przedsiębiorstwo Robót Kolejowych 7, RYFAMA, Seco Warwick, Skarbiec Nieruchomości, Sygnity, Torfarm, Unibep,
       WAN, WSiP, ZA Puławy, ZUGIL.
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       Individuals who did not participate in the preparation of recommendations, but had or could have had access to recommendations
       prior to their publication, are employees of BRE Bank Securities S.A. authorised to access the premises in which recommendations
       are prepared, other than the analysts mentioned as the authors of the present recommendations.

       Strong and weak points of valuation methods used in recommendations:
       DCF – acknowledged as the most methodologically correct method of valuation; it consists in discounting financial flows generated
       by a company; its weak point is the significant susceptibility to a change of forecast assumptions in the model.
       Comparative – based on a comparison of valuation multipliers of companies from a given sector; simple in construction, reflects the
       current state of the market better than DCF; weak points include substantial variability (fluctuations together with market indices) as
       well as difficulty in the selection of the group of comparable companies.

28 October 2009                                                                                                                             15

								
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