Estimate by babbian


									ENGR101 – Engineering

            Engineers Make Decisions
Robot morphologies               
         How to make decisions
The Wikipedia way?
Some of the decision making techniques people use in
  everyday life include:
• Satisficing: Accepting the first option that seems like it
  might achieve the desired result
• Acquiesce to a person in authority or an "expert", just
  following orders
• Flipism: Flipping a coin, cutting a deck of playing
  cards, and other random or coincidence methods
• Prayer, tarot cards, astrology, augurs, revelation, or
  other forms of divination
• ...
        How to make decisions
The Engineering way?
Engineers analyse problems in order to make decisions:
• Synthesis: combine the important elements into an
  integrated whole.
• Analysis: using Mathematics, Science, Engineering
  techniques and others (e.g. Economics) to quantify the
  performance of various options.
• Communication: described the decision and how/why
  it was made.
• Implementation: engineers execute the consequences
  of decisions.
Mathematics, especially statistics, are a useful tool in
 understanding the likelihood of success.

Given a set of numbers:
• Mean: the average
• Median: middle of the sorted set
• Mode: most frequent

Standard deviation: square root of variance
• Expected value E  X    (ave.)
• Standard deviation
Mathematics, like any tool, must be used properly.

Student’s T-Test to defeat the null hypothesis.
[There is no difference in the decisions to be made]
           Confidence in Decisions ...
        Guess versus Estimate
Guess: pulled out of thin air

“Yes, I am certain that this will work”

Estimate: prediction of the future based on past results,
  research, analysis, engineering ...

“I am 90% confident based on these calculations, and
   prior testing, that this may work”
                 Pros vs Cons
Straightforward decision-making approach

List all the features of the problem/solutions

Determine the strengths and weaknesses.

Criteria are used to quantify solutions
     • pass/fail                or
     • rank based               or
     • numerical                or ...

    • Soft constraint (flexible to not meet criterion)
    • Hard constraint (must meet criterion)

Single vs Multiple
     • Single criterion: easy to judge, but rare in real life
     • Multiple criteria: trade-offs and compromises
      Weighted decision-making
1.   Weight each criteria
2.   Score each option
3.   Sum up totals
4.   (adjust weights, so favoured solution wins)
               Weight   Option 1    Option 2     ...
               W        S     SxW   S      SxW
       Cost    5        3     15    4      20
       Speed   3        2     6     3      9
       Lift    3        4     12    3      9
       ...     ...      ...   ...   ...    ...
       Total                  50           45
                 Pareto Front
1. Trade-offs between different solutions
e.g. Wish to minimise the number of robot collisions (f1)
    and cost (f2)

               SWOT Analysis
•   Strength
•   Weaknesses
•   Opportunities
•   Threats

                 SWOT Analysis
•   Strength
•   Weaknesses
•   Opportunities
•   Threats

Widely used,
Easy to do,
Gives insight.

No guarantees.         
                 Rhino in the Road
Left is good

                                                Right is good


                            Go in the middle!
As little as possible...


                   Head vs Heart
Or more precisely:
Anterior cingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, ventromedial
prefrontal cortex
Amygdala, Hippocampus, Hypothalamus.

          New ‘rational’ brain Vs Old ‘emotional’ brain

‘people who spend too much time analysing their options are
less satisfied with their decisions’
                                   Lehrer, “The Decisive Moment”.

"They who dream by day are cognizant of many things which
escape those who dream only by night." (Edgar Allen Poe)
Decision-making gurus...

Find decision-making methods that work for you.

    If you don't like the answer that the decision-making
    sheet(s) reflect back to you...
    it means you haven't included all the cons
     - especially the emotional ones –
    or you haven't scored the factors consistently,
    so re-visit the sheet(s) concerned.


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