Transformed Mainstream:
a scenario for a sustainable Melbourne Philip Sutton Philip.Sutton@green-innovations.asn.au http://www.green-innovations.asn.au/ 6 November 2009 Version 1.e About this scenario This scenario is one of three that were originally written as background to the „plastic bubbles installation‟ at the Sustainable Living Festival in February 2004. The latest version of this and other scenarios can be found at: http://www.green-innovations.asn.au/Scenarios.htm
Disclaimer Some real names might be used where they are in the public eye and they represent archetypes. The story of course is purely fictitious. Principles/themes The scenario examines what sort of world and what sort of city emerges if there is a mobilisation of society to sustain: ecosystem services used by all people and by other living things the full living diversity of nature a high quality of life for all people and genuine progress is pursued to eliminate poverty, exploitation and marginalisation. The dominant themes of this scenario are: a strong commitment to actually achieve sustainability as fast as possible1 before any horrendous irreversible impacts occur inclusive altruism - an ethical commitment to care for all people and all of living nature a strongly precautionary approach to environmental issues a strong sense of urgency a strong culture of grounded optimism, creativity, inspiration and innovation a highly anticipatory approach a strongly democratic / pluralist approach a whole-system design approach
1
If at all possible before 2030.
2 a no-major trade-offs (and where possible win-win) approach2 a capability and willingness to deal with complexity and the too-hard basket3
This scenario has been designed to achieve major transformation without social and economic breakdown. It is rare that a utopian future arises from the ashes of a society that has broken down - most often it is the warlords, not the meek, who inherit the affected patch of earth!
Tendencies This scenario is the outcome of a series of tendencies that are sometimes in conflict but work cooperatively often enough to make the scenario outcomes possible. The forces or tendencies that dominate in the other scenarios are present in this one although they are less powerful this time. The Ecological Modernisers are the main drivers of this scenario. But there are other tendencies that have significant influence: The Coalition for Unsustainability 4 that gives rise directly to some Breakdown and Fortress Worlds. The Enlightened-Self Interest Elite Aquarians5 - see profile in the appendices at the end of this paper. The „Red‟ Greens - people who have a socialist philosophy and/or a strong tendency to rely heavily on government to actively look after the interests of all people and the forms of life.
Time horizon for the Transformed Mainstream scenario In this scenario an ecologically sustainable state is achieved before 2030.
What needs to be done?
2
Eg. a 100% decoupling of economic development from the environment a 100% decoupling of the effects of non-renewable resource depletion from impacts on the economy, people and other living things. 3 In this scenario everything is, as Einstein recommended, “as simple as possible but no simpler”. 4 The military, nuclear, oil, coal, construction, land development, pharmaceutical, genetic engineering industries etc. plus the neo-conservatives. 5 Name taken from the musical “Hair” - relating to the “dawning of the Age of Aquarius” - the hippy golden age - the inspiration for counter-culturalists and alternative lifestylers that founded Nimbin back in the 1970s (or was it the late „60s?). This gave rise to the trend for hippies to go to favoured settlements on the northern NSW coast and Qld coast. The Malaney region is an evolved and contemporary manifestation of this earlier development.
3 To enable the economy to be 100% decoupled from environmental impact and resource depletion to be 100% decoupled from effects on human welfare and the condition of the environment the following things need to be done: the economy needs to move as close as possible to 100% closed-cycle for materials the economy needs to be radically dematerialised (by Factor 20-50 or more by 2040) the economy needs to be redesigned for zero toxicity greenhouse emissions to the atmosphere need to fall to zero a very large percentage of the current land devoted to agriculture needs to be returned to nature activities using natural habitats need to tread ultra-lightly human population needs to stabilise, possibly after falling for a while.
What the economy would look like - about 2030 It‟s a multi-polar world with the US still a major player - although not overwhelmingly dominant as it was 30 years earlier. The European Union has edged up on the US, as have China and India. There has been a rebirth of compassionate „liberalism‟ around the world - in reaction to the neoconservative ascendancy leading up to the W Bush regime. The world has a large population that is expected to stop growing in 2050 at about 9 billion, after which it is expected to undergo a long slow decline to a level of population that can be easily accommodated on the earth through all the stages of the climate cycle. What the stabilisation figure should be nobody knows at this stage. The exact figure at any particular time would be set by the available technology and renewable energy resources available without large displacements of natural ecosystems. The psychology of population growth being a perpetual and a priori „good thing‟ has been broken, however a much more humane attitude now applies to refugee movements as local communities adjust to their local situation. Australia and other rich countries now put big efforts into helping poor countries generate real economic development. At the turn of the century there were fears that reduced reproduction levels would cause populations to fall away towards … nothing! But after 2015 increased lifespan began to counteract the reduced birthrate effect. GDP continues to grow globally. But few people now see economic growth for society as a goal in it‟s own right - now most people judge economic change in terms of what it does for people and the environment. Firms still pursue growth in product sales in terms of an increasing “share of the need”. To support this approach firms have systems that guide their product development and promotion that are driven by direct customer and social and environmental need. Civil society and in some countries, governments, are very active in helping to identify the community‟s needs
4 so that companies can avoid promoting products beyond the point of community benefit. Need creation (ie. new „needs‟ that emerge through social or product innovation) is an accepted practice but the notion of excess promotion of any product type is widely accepted in society and also in business. Hours of work have eased back from the excessive levels of the turn of the century (eg. 2004!) but hours have not plunged dramatically - for most people family/life friendliness is the driver of work hours reduction not a preference not to be working. Enjoyment of work as much as desire for income has kept working hours from collapsing. Global corporations continue to operate but have, in the main, restructured to focus on meeting the needs of diverse thematic and local communities and sub-cultures. New global / local partnerships are common business model eg. “inverted franchise” where locally controlled firms provide highly customised services matching local needs but supported by a global „supply‟ network. Often internationally-sourced products are actually manufactured locally - with the product specs downloaded from global networks to the site of manufacture. Automated manufacture is very common. Resources are now taxed very heavily - with the tax levels ramping up whenever the economy grows. The revenues of these ecotaxes are partly used to redevelop the economic system to cut resource use further and to achieve/maintain a zero impact result for the economy as a whole. But these days the bulk of the revenues go to wage subsidies so that full employment for those who want to work is achieved. As of 2025 a small universal living-support payment was introduced - anticipating the time when automated systems will be capable of carrying out all production processes6. The economy has evolved in the last 20 years far more rapidly and far more completely than anyone7 had expected. CO2 is no longer discharged to the atmosphere from energy systems. Fossil fuel use has been largely phased out, in favour of renewable energy. Renewables now supply 80% of the economy and are heading to 100% fast. CO2 from the fossil fuels still used is sequestered in deep saline aquifers. The internal combustion engine is gone - lightweight hybrid vehicles running on hydrogen are in. For several decades hybrid cars were the norm. But then the bigger cities adopted systems of computer-controlled people-movers and good-movers which have replaced cars (including taxis) for most uses. The goods-movers have brought energy efficiency to the just-in-time manufacturing system. Goods-moving „pipe‟ systems (underground and overhead) have been introduced to maximise energy efficiency. Personal cars are still used by country dwellers and are hired by urban people for occasional travel in the country. Water efficiency is a major preoccupation around the world. Water systems are integrated, to achieve % efficiency gains, compared to the year 2000, that are in the
6 7
When this time comes people will work because they want to not because they have to. Well, actually the some of ecological modernisers had actually set out to achieve change that was at least as fast as has been achieved. If anything change has been somewhat slower than they had been aiming for.
5 high 90s.. Rainwater, storm water and domestic gray water is utilised. Water-free toilets are replacing flushed toilets as consumer acceptance grows. Except for specialist applications, the bulk of farming is moving to closed-loop contained systems located in and near cities or in areas where there is a high concentration of renewable energy. Large areas of land are being returned to bush and other types of natural habitat. Rural occupations now focus around some specialist high value-added farming (for food and organic chemical feedstocks, carbon capture (from the atmosphere), energy capture, bush management and recreation. Areas that were salt affected due to clearing and past farming practice and that have not yet recovered are used for nature conservation, salt extraction, and the culture of halophilic organisms are grown (fish, shrimps, salt tolerant plants, etc.) The chemical industry has switched to renewable feedstocks - derived from biological sources. Virtually all products have been servicised (ie. the consumer buys the service not the physical product) and reconfigured so the economy is a Factor 20-50 more efficient in materials. Consumerism is much more restrained compared to 30 years ago. The emphasis is now not on accumulating masses of stuff8 - instead it‟s on „cool‟ quality. In some places the big shopping malls have been displaced by public spaces that emphasise social interaction and good outward focused environment and the shops and supermarkets interface but don‟t dominate these spaces9. All farm-grown food is now organic. Food from closed-cycle systems in now either certified organic or certified ultra-low chemical use. Genetic engineering is used but in quite limited circumstances - eg. in closed manufacturing environments with no release of viable organisms to the wild. The technology is seen as important but potentially very dangerous if applied inappropriately and so is being evolved slowly under careful public/community control. Similar care is being applied to nanotechnology where nano-systems are able to self-propagate (artificial life). The spread of natural species from place to place is also treated with the same care because of the huge problem of pest organisms that developed as a result of international trade and environmental changes like global warming. Air travel is less common than it used to be. All fuel is renewable and international travel bears the same ecotax levels as any other industry. Tourism is restructuring around resource frugal modes - with fewer trips and longer stays becoming the pattern. Net-conferencing is now the norm for business contact (driven initially by the fear of terrorist attacks).
88
In fact it‟s quite uncool to accumulate more than can be used at any one time - a sign of poor judgment and a personality out of control. In fact a hang-over from time of poverty when people felt they had to hang o to whatever they could get in case their fortunes reversed. 9 See Jan Gehl & Lars Gemzoe New City Spaces
6 The efficient use and recycling of materials is driven by a new type of business - the resource stewardship company. This company sells multiple types of material, all of which are the greenest materials currently available on the market. The materials are rented to users and recovered later on. Hard rock miners transformed their businesses to be resource stewards - or they went out of business. Another new class of business is the lifestyle steward. This type of company forms a close personal relationship with a person and helps them optimally achieve the lifestyle of their choice while achieving close to zero impact on the environment. These companies are major users of advanced artificial intelligence. These companies are required by law to not serve too large a customer base - this is to avoid monopolization of the advice market and undue influence on the community as a whole.. Lifestyle support companies have the highest ethics standards and ethics practice of all companies. Licensing requirements are very strict. Ocean-based, closed-cycle floating-island cities are now being manufactured in significant numbers so that people can be ecological nomads once more - able to move with the flow of the natural climate changes on the Earth.
What the City (Melbourne) would look like (in 2030) After having to take in considerably more economic, environmental and political refugees, by 2030 Melbourne is a city of 6 million people and still growing. The integrated computer-controlled people mover system has taken over from almost all cars. People don‟t own cars, instead they have “suit cases” and trolleys that fit into the people-movers and that are their persistent personal space that can be junked up or personalised. The people-mover system complements the high volume public transport system (train, tram and bus). Because of the extensive people-mover feeder system and the very high frequency of services on public mass transport, public transport use is very high. „Access‟ is the model driving urban planning - not mobility. localities around Melbourne have been selected to become „Venice precincts‟ ie. car free. This builds on urban village ideas. Public transport systems have lots of high density nodes on them where key destinations are clustered for convenient access by public transport and the people-mover network. Houses are designed for cascade reuse of water. There is a dual water system - high quality and secondary. The secondary water is stored seasonally in deep underground aquifers. Waterless toilets are getting more and more common. Many housing redevelopments are fully set up as waterless toilets. Water and nutrients are „ mined‟ locally from the sewers. Storm water is now harvested and sent to Werribee to maintain the RAMSAR wetlands.
7 All new building s are ultra energy efficient and there is a very active refurbishment program going on to upgrade and retrofit houses to lift their energy, water, indirect biodiversity impacts dramatically. All the structural change targets committed in the Melbourne 2030 policy created in 2002 has been exceeded - many by a substantial margin. Cities are designed to trap solar radiation and ambient heat (using heat pumps) and solar cells etc are designed to be built into as many fixed and mobile surfaces as possible. Internet connected office centres have popped up all over the city so that workers can go to the office - in the neighbourhood regardless of their employer‟s nominal location. There are no more tips. Old tips are beginning to be mined for resources. There are recycling regions focused on the western ring road and between Dandenong and Westernport. There is a massive green waste/organic waste value adding recycling complex at Werribee. Waste warehouses are used to store wastes that are not at a sufficient volume to warrant recycling, or that don‟t have an adequate recycling technology yet or for which the demand in cyclically not ready (eg. annual cycle, and multi-year business cycle). Organic waste is processed in local treatment plants to extract organic (and other) chemicals for manufacturing There is a new waste hierarchy:
8 The new waste hierarchy replaces the old waste hierarchy below:
The material recycling target for Melbourne is 100%. It is now at 95%. All building are designed for disassembly (100%) recycling Port Phillip and Westernport Bays now are home to many „floating islands‟. These have replaced onshore marinas and are an experimental ground for testing the grander floating-island cities idea. Melbourne‟s average density has stayed roughly the same over the last thirty years. However what has happened is that densification of housing stock has been offset by the recovery of land for the re-creation of „bush land‟ and „natural‟ creeks and other forms of public space. It is public policy to make sure there is bushland in little kid walking distance of every home. Giving all kids access to bush/creeks is seen as an important part of their recreational quality of life and also important for environmental education.
9 The change process 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Politics Labor Liberals Liberals Labor Investment Cluster and Roll out industry change on Invest in push connect big scale; technical lifestyle change urban dematerialisation end-use centres, dematerialisation recycling infra structure Market China / India: So we can sell to India/China Australia should build systems here that focus creates the affluence of the US, but the resource frugality and reduced environmental impact that will have to be achieved by China and India if they are to be ecologically sustainable Commercial Singapore to help with the link to China / Fiji (?????) or somewhere to help with the allies link to India Business Pushing Pushing Govt hard to roll out Pushing Govt Govt hard to new infrastructure and urban for end user led invest in and industrial renewal to full dematerialisation major scale infrastructure and urban renewal trials R&D Civil society plus research/ research/ research/ R&D people, plus conceptualise conceptualise conceptualise sections of business the next the next the next to design new stage of stage of stage of system to backcast development development development from (STD-style program) Civil Mobilise the whole prepare prepare prepare society community; alliance 2 for alliance 3 for alliance 4 for spread vision and the next the next the next mental tools; run a stage of stage of stage of hybrid vehicle development development development promotion campaign; run a Gulf Stream project; prepare activist alliance 1 (of people and organisational units from civil society, business and government) to push government/business as a whole for the next stage of development. 2004-2010 Labor Whole-system experimentation
10 Some key ideas to keep an eye on through the chronology The need to address: - the question of what we want to sustain, the preferred end state and the scale and speed of change The Race to Sustainability The conversion of the car fleet to hybrid vehicles (eventually powered by renewable fuels) Transformative financing Economic development, high standards of living don‟t have to always be incompatible with ecological and social sustainability The direct governance of policy by the community Biodiversity inclusiveness Lifestyle support companies/programs People mover/good mover technology (computer controlled vehicles) Stabilising the atmosphere at (or below) 300 ppm CO2 equivalent Native forest logging The simulation computer game
Chronology - a plausible story to explain how society gets to the end state 12 Feb 2004 City of Melbourne and the Sustainable Living Foundation hold a public meeting on the Race to Sustainability as a prelude to the Sustainable Living Festival. Lot‟s of people show interest. http://www.greeninnovations.asn.au/Greenleapbefore-2030.htm
13-15 Lots of people attend the SLF Feb 2004 Sustainable Living Festival - they read the Transformed Mainstream scenario and they got really excited about the possibilities for creating a really great world that cared for people and nature - and that escaped from the thrall of limited political possibilities and pointless consumerism - at last there seemed to be an escape from the cultural constipation of the last 10 years 23 Feb SLF holds an open forum for 2004 people interested in the Design Cities installation - 50 people want to work on transforming Melbourne and Victoria into a sustainability-promoting region. Two related projects came out of this meeting:
http://www.greeninnovations.asn.au/Race-toSustainability.doc
11 1. to help establish a global Race to The Race Promotion Project works Sustainability (The Race on getting the Race to Sustainability Promotion Project) up globally. It also takes on the job of encouraging the formation of Race teams in the other Australian states, New Zealand and anywhere else (!) 2. to get together one or more teams to enter Victorian in the Race to Sustainability and to help for Victoria to be a „winning‟ participant Negotiations by the second project The Victoria/People&Nature team group result in the formation of the decide to take on the following Victoria/People&Nature team. tasks: This team begins developing a plan 1. Outreach to all Victorians of action 2. The establishment of a transformative financing body to help finance the Victoria/People&Nature team http://www.greeninnovations.asn.au/btf.htm 3. Research into what ecological and social outcomes are need if ecological and social sustainability are to be achieved (like the Weterings and Opschoor work - only better!) 4. Search to find out who is doing full-on work on sustainability in Victoria and elsewhere so that collaboration can be set up and ideas exchanged.10 5. Establish a research/activation project and network to figure out how to make the dramatic, fast changes that will be necessary www.greenleafpublishing.com/catalogue/std.htm Natural Edge project
http://www.naturaledgeproject. net
May 2004
10
A link is set up with the city of Panjim, in the Indian state of Goa that is working on creating an ecologically sustainable and socially sustainable city by 2030. See: www.sustainability.dpc.wa.gov.au/conferences/ keynotes/AtKissonKeynoteWA-3_1.pdf
12 Jun 2004 A group of professionals from community groups, consulting firms, other businesses and government departments privately band together to accelerate the introduction of hybrid vehicles They target anyone who is suffering from chemical or noise pollution from cars - in creches, schools, shops, homes, etc. - asking for support to press business and government to change the car fleet over to hybrids - starting within 2 years and to be completed in 10. “The cars are quiet and they cut noxious pollution by about 90%.” “The hybrids exist commercially now so why are we continuing to pollute ourselves and waste oil instead of switching over?” Public contact begins in October 2004 after the international committee is set up to organise the Race internationally. The outreach puts information in peoples hands, find volunteers and begins to raise significant amounts of money to establish the Sustainable Victoria Transformative Fund. www.ecologicaleconomics.org/ http://www.globalcommunity.org/conference/ www.gsg.org/ The international Race gives legitimation to work on sustainability, helps build networks, shows who is doing well in the change process and increases the sense of urgency behind action. It also focuses action on achieving sustainability - rather than aspiring to it but never getting there.
Jun Dec 2004
The Victoria/People&Nature team set up a cooperative program to letterbox and door-knock the whole of Victoria to invite people to support Victoria‟s effort in the Race to Sustainability
The Race Promotion Project taps networks of potential supporters at international series of international conferences and workshops Oct 2004 An ad hoc international committee - May begins organising the Race to 2006 Sustainability - ready for a launch in 2006
Jun Sept 2004
Feb 2005 The Sustainable Living Festival is held - giving high priority billing to the Race to Sustainability Feb 2005 The Sustainable Living Foundation launches a new program: Innovate! Sustainable Living for a Sustainable World
The program is aimed at innovating and supporting lifestyles that make sustainability possible. This program is a key part of the Innovation for Sustainability program (see below) but it needs to have a very high public profile and so is marketed separately.
13 Feb 2005 The Innovation for Sustainability program is launched at the Sustainable Living Festival The program is launched with funding from the Sustainable Victoria Transformative Fund and several other funds. The program‟s aim is to copy and extend the work of the Dutch Sustainable Technology Development program. This program starts to identify what environmental and social outcomes are needed to achieve sustainability. It also begins a whole suite of projects to work out how the needs of people and nature can be met in a way that is sustainable. Groups like the Alternative Technology Association, the Sustainable Living Foundation, Environment Victoria play key roles. There is active involvement of people from industry and government in this program even though it is a community initiative
Apr 2005
Nov 2005
Victoria/People&Nature team join the Committee for Melbourne and a range of other industry, business and professional associations. The first “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference is held in Melbourne, focusing on Goals, Scale, Speed & Innovation
Organised annually by the Sustainable Living Foundation. This conference/workshop is a chance for a large variety of players to reflect on how Victoria can become a sustainable and sustainability-promoting city.
14 Feb 2006 At the Sustainable Living Festival the State Government announces that it will run a unique community-based decision-making process on the future of motor vehicles in Victoria $60m is allocated to funding a random sample of 400,000 people in Melbourne to investigate the issue of motor cars and to recommend to the government what it should do. This engagement process will run till July and then a referendum will be held in November on the options put forward. The government indicated that it wished to raise a number of issues: - should the government encourage the adoption of super-efficient/super clean vehicles? - should the government explore vehicle systems for the longer term future that could dramatically cut the „footprint of motor vehicles o the City? - how should the communities access needs be met over the next 20 years and beyond?
Feb 2006 The State Government funds Industry Policy Econometrics to examine the possible economic effects of a move to an ecologically-sustainable economy Jun 2006 Registrations for official participation in the Race to Sustainability are called Aug Opinion polls showed that there 2006 was very strong public support for a transition to hybrid vehicles Oct 2006 Toyota, GM and Ford announce that they will manufacture hybrid vehicles in Australia „soon‟. Nov The transport/access referendum is 2006 held
The Victoria/People&Nature team enters Victoria in the Race Health and noise reason predominate, but concern about greenhouse and oil depletion are strong secondary issues.
70% vote for a rapid governmentassisted transition to hybrid vehicles; 55% vote in favour of a longer term introduction of peoplemover technology; 52% vote in favour of local areas being able to be zoned as „Venice precincts‟ (areas designed for little car traffic) if a 70% majority in the local area endorse this.
15 Transformative financing (the third wave of the ethical investment industry is featured; as is an in depth discussion of how to generate sufficient investment dollars for transformative infrastructure and products and services. The Victoria/People&Nature team undertake to run a big campaign on this. Nov Also at The “Achieving Two project groups are set up: 2006 Sustainability, Fast” conference the - one on the need for a quantum leap Biodiversity Alliance launches a in spending on nature conservation, program to build concern for including providing funding for biodiversity into everything that rural people to care for nature the community does. - the other project is about the development and application of biodiversity-inclusive life-cycle assessment - so that the indirect impact of the economy and the community can be tracked and managed Feb 2007 The Sustainable Living Festival Presentations of ideas are made by features the notion of „lifestyle the Sustainability Street, Body support‟ companies Shop, Nokia, Coles-Myer, Channel 7, Mitre 10, Savers, Earth Design11, Macdonalds, Sussans, Bendigo Bank, Relate12, PalmSource13 Monash Environment Institute and by the Sustainable Living Foundation itself. Mar A consortium of major property At the launch hopes are expressed 2007 developers, vehicle manufacturers, that a viable people/good mover IT specialists, etc. and the Federal system can be designed and trialed and Victorian Governments by 2011 and be ready for full scale announce the formation of a application shortly after that. Cooperative Research Centre for Computer Controlled Vehicle Systems Nov 2006 The “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference focuses on: Investing in sustainability
11 12
A consortium of Australasian product designers. A state-wide alliance of alternative lifestyle small businesses. 13 The makers of the software for Palm Pilots, etc.
16 Apr 2007 Industry Policy Econometrics reports back that some strategy paths to an ecologically-sustainable economy could produce win-win economic outcomes. Their research robustly laid to rest the idea that economic development and ecological sustainability had to be in conflict under all conditions. The Federal Government and the States agree on a package to introduce a bonus for the purchase of hybrid vehicles, 12 months after the introduction of the bonus a tax on old technology vehicles will be introduced. The bonus will stay in place for 7 years. The tax will be permanent. The bonus is to begin in January 2008 The first Race to Sustainability „Olympics‟ are held - in the Netherlands The Industry Policy Econometrics report withstood very critical assessments undertaken subsequently. Some analysts challenged the conclusions but were later found to have made critical errors in their own assessments.
Jun 2007
The car manufacturers are allowed to import hybrid vehicles for the first, after that quotas will be introduced so that for 10 years 80% of hybrid vehicles must be made in Australia or New Zealand. After that the car plan will be reviewed.
Jun 2007
58 countries participate. All countries have entered events testing “substantial improvement”. 11 countries have entered teams and communities that „racing to actually achieve sustainability. None of these 11 countries were judged to have achieved a sustainable state. Sweden and the Netherlands were judged to be leading the field by a significant margin although they were still quite some distance away from a state of sustainability. The Race to Sustainability „Olympics‟ are to be held every 2 years.
17 Aug 2007 The Premier, Treasurer and Minister for Environment release the Victorian Government Sustainability Strategy The Strategy commits Victoria to be a world leader in achieving ecological sustainability. It commits the government to the following policy goals: to achieve ecologicallysustainable economy before 2030 to benefit people and nature to radically dematerialise the economy (eg. by whatever efficiency Factor is necessary to achieve sustainability expected to be between Factor 20 and Factor 50) - this includes water and land efficiency to create a closed-cycle for materials ie. the recycling target is 100% to end emissions of greenhouse gases and to switch to renewable energy sources as fast as possible to urgently take measures to achieve the objectives of the Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act Plans are presented on how to end greenhouse gas emissions and to boost the supply of renewable energy and the application of energy conservation measures. A plan for comprehensive urban redevelopment focusing on whole systems design and covering urban living, the emerging shape and dynamics of industry and business development, infrastructure, and ecological and social sustainability issues.
Nov 2007
The “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference focuses on: greenhouse and the power sector urban redevelopment
18 Feb 2008 The Federal Government announces that there will be a major consultation on the level of investment in achieving sustainability Following the methodology pioneered by the Victorian State Government, the Federal Government allocates $240m to funding a random sample of 1,600,000 people across Australia to investigate the investment issue. This engagement process will run till July and then a referendum will be held in November on the options put forward. The government indicated that it wished to raise a number of issues: - should funding increase? - if yes, how large should the increase be? - how should the money be raised? - how can other community needs be met at the same time? $60m is allocated to funding a random sample of 400,000 people in Melbourne to investigate the issue of urban development, economic development and sustainability and to recommend to the government what it should do. This engagement process will run till July. For this exercise there will be no referendum. Comprehensive and summary materials examining the issues were made available to participants. This consultation was undertaken because it was recognised that revamping the urban structure to achieve sustainability would have significant effects on people‟s lifestyles and it was felt that the population should be engaged as a partner in this policymaking process. This package covers privacy issues, protection of diversity, prudential arrangements, funds to go into lifestyle research - especially including the lifestyle/sustainability link and the link to effective democracy
Aug 2008
The State Government undertakes a major consultation about urban development, industry development and sustainability
Oct 2008 The State government announces a regulatory and industry support package to manage the „lifestyle support‟ industry
19 Nov 2008 The „financing the achievement of sustainability‟ referendum is held 68% of people across Australia support the introduction of a Sustainability Levy to substantially supplement funds raised through superannuation. The Sustainability Levy is in fact the umbrella term for a raft of ecotaxes to be applied at points across the economy. The money from this fund is to be used for expenditures that bring good community return without the need for a commercial return. 93% of people vote for changes to the superannuation legislation to require at least 30% of all expenditures to make a major contribution to the achievement of sustainability. If Sustainability Levy revenues ever exceed the amounts needed to invest in sustainability initiatives the funds are to be returned to the community via a wage support payment or a non-wage dividend A host of papers from the Innovation for Sustainability program outline how closed-cycle food production could work and how it could replace open systems agriculture for most purposes. This conference is the culmination of four years work in academic, professional, NGO, government circles. Behind the scenes a great deal of work has been done to get a major Cooperative Research Centre on Closed-Cycle Food Production. The intention to form such a CRC is announced at the conference by the Federal Minister for Science.
Nov 2008
The “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference focuses on closed-cycle food production
20 The State Government announces that no further fossil fuel burning plants will be established and that by 2020 no further greenhouse gases are to be released from the energy system or from cars. Hazelwood power station would be closed within a year and the owners compensated. The money would be raised through a levy on non-green power electricity. Feb 2009 47 firms begin trading as licenced „lifestyle support‟ firms Dec 2008 The Government then began consulting with the fossil fuel, energy, motor vehicle industries, professionals, researchers and the community to determine how best to meet these goals.
These first have finely divided up the community into different demographic/ethical groups and are offering advice and services to help people achieve their personal goals in ways that are compatible with wider ecological and social sustainability.
Feb 2009 The Departments of Sustainability And Environment; Infrastructure; Innovation Industry and Regional Development; and Human Services spend the year revamping the Melbourne 2030 strategy to focus squarely on the achievement of an ecologically and socially sustainable city before 2030. Jun 2009 The „financing the achievement of sustainability‟ reform legislation is passed by the national and State Parliaments. Jul 2009 Investment begins in the peoplemover trial Aug 2009 The Victoria/People&Nature team in conjunction with computer games developer Electronic Arts14 and computer modelling group EnviroMind announce the release of a new computer game: Sustain
The sustainability levy begins to be phased in.
Pilot projects are developed in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart. This game is a serious simulation tool for imagining futures and testing their sustainability - but it has also been designed to compete actively with other simulation and strategy games on the market. The new game was strongly supported by parents, educators and others who had been growing increasingly alarmed by the spread of war games among young people.
14
Developers of the Sim series of simulation games.
21 Nov 2009 The “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference focuses on “Accelerating change” This looks at innovation practice, concurrent engineering. “CISCO Systems” business strategies, the use of advanced artificial intelligence, computer gaming, political strategies, consensus building, etc.
March 2010 May 2010
Jun 2010
Nov 2010
The State government announced a suite of new policies A group of Liberals form the Sustainability Forum to promote policies on ecological and social sustainability The International GeosphereBiosphere Program released a detailed report looking and the future of the world‟s farming systems and concluded that agricultural productivity would fall as a robust long-term trend possibly by a third within 40 years (possibly quite a bit sooner) particularly badly affected would be the worlds most populous and poorest countries. The “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference focuses on Victoria‟s economic strategy and closed-cycle agriculture
The Forum members actively recruit members to the Liberal Party.
Papers were presented suggesting that Victoria should combine its industry development interests with its humanitarian concerns and develop specialised skills in the large scale development of sustainable food production systems in the third world and other development needs. The development of empower strategies including in relation to finance and locally directed development were seen to be very important.
22 Apr 2011 The State Government commit to a multi billion dollar long-term package to develop and rollout closed-cycle food production systems Six major Australasian consortia begin large development programs linked to firms and research agencies in the Netherlands, South China, Lahore, and elsewhere including NASA and the European Space Agency. These consortia are aimed at converting the Victorian agricultural sector and also aimed firmly at the export market for closed-cycle food production systems in the Third world. The consortia are expecting that world needs will require this program to roll out on a huge scale and very fast. Victoria‟s experience in mobilisation industry and society for industrial transformation means that they have a great many of the required skills that are unfortunately still relatively rare in most other parts of the world.
Oct 2011 The people mover trial concludes successfully and three public private partnerships are announced to rollout the full people mover system by 2017 Nov The Labor Government loses its 2012 majority and governs in coalition with the Greens 2013-> Industry and also government begin rolling out a huge raft of projects to redevelop the urban system and industry generally to enable the achievement of society‟s sustainability goals Oct 2016 The Labor Government falls and is replaced by a Liberal/Green coalition
The coalition agreement includes a commitment to end native forest logging
Feb 2017 Native forest logging is ended Dec 2018 One year behind schedule the people mover system has been rolled out across all the major cities of Australia
It was the failure of the Labor Party to honour its commitment to end native forest logging that ended the Labor/Green coalition. The Liberals go into coalition with the Greens on the basis of ending native forest logging. A major social and economic adjustment package is put in place
23 Dec 2022 Two years behind schedule Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and from energy using cars and equipment has ceased. The urban, product, lifestyle and industry systems are in place to reduce material and ecocapacity demands to achieve over 90% of the changes necessary to deliver ecological and social sustainability At the 9th Race to Sustainability Olympics, in Goa, India, Victoria is declared to have „crossed‟ the line and can be classed as a locally sustainable region - having accomplished 90% of the transition and having firmly locked in the achievement of the last 10%. The “Achieving Sustainability, Fast” conference focuses on Helping the Rest of the World Achieve Sustainability
Dec 2024
Jun 2025
In 20 when the Victoria/People&Nature team first entered Victoria in the Race to Sustainability it nominated a high quality of life for people and the survival of the State‟s native species as the things it wanted to sustain locally. The team nominated the same objectives globally as well.
Nov 2024
A blow up of some of the key points
If we don‟t know what we want to sustain - we‟re not doing “sustainability”. And if we don‟t have a good feel for what will deliver
sustainability and how big and fast the changes have to be then we are just puddling around making ourselves feel a little better in the short term. We've got to get our heads and hearts into that better future and then ask 'how did we make this possible?' We 'backcast' from the future to work out what we need to do now - to get to that better world.... that already exists in our minds.
We know it‟s a race against time - to get to that better world - to sustain what we love, what we need. Why don‟t we take the metaphor
of the race and make it real, make it work for us to keep the sense of urgency, to motivate us to drive forward and „across the line‟ to a sustainable world. It‟s half sprint, half marathon, but it‟s getting everything that we really want to sustain „across the line‟ that counts. Because whatever is not sustained will be lost, it will be extinct. That's why actually achieving sustainability matters so much.
The car! - so convenient, so much fun. And it‟s eating us up - but it doesn’t have to!. Half the land of the
city. Armies to protect the oil. Destroying the atmosphere. Clogging our lungs
24 and ears. But we can tame the beast, bring it down to size. Hybrid vehicles already have 1/10th the toxic pollution and half the fuel. They could run on renewables, hydrogen. But we‟ve got to get them onto the streets. And, only a few years away there are computer-driven mini-taxis, people movers. Say what your need is - how many people, any luggage? - and the right sized car will come to you. These technologies cut the load on the planet to a tenth, less perhaps.
Wouldn‟t it be great if the money we spent didn‟t destroy the world. Better still, wouldn‟t it be fantastic if the money we spent saved the world? We need to get into transformative financing, the third wave of
ethical investment. First we didn‟t invest in damaging things, then we went for projects that were doing some good. But what we need most of all is investment that seeks out, perhaps creates the projects that drive change strategically, that will make a sustainable world come into being, fast, everywhere.
The economy grows, the planet shudders? It doesn‟t have to be that way. If economic development is driven by the need to heal and protect
the planet, the need to end poverty and the desire to enable everyone to have fulfilling, meaningful lives, then more of that sort of development would be a blessing. And in this sort of world, the national accounts wouldn‟t look as if they‟d had a hole blasted in them. But be warned, economic development that‟s good for people and good for the planet will be very different from a lot of what passes for economic development now.
What really makes a city green, or not, is what it does to the countryside and the sea. Native species can survive extraordinary natural
variations in climate over hundreds of thousands or millions of years if they have plenty of space. So a city can only be profoundly green if it enables people to relate to the countryside and the wider environment in new ways - in terms of what they take and what they throw back and the land they take from nature, not just for urban buildings but more importantly for growing food, fibre and wood. We talk about closed-cycle manufacturing. But it‟s also possible to have closed-cycle food production. It‟s time we looked at farms with new eyes. Farms are open systems. Open to the sky, open to the ground and the waterways. We throw on seed and water, and fertilisers and pesticides and solar energy - and open farming system leaks like a sieve - most of everything we throw on flows off and causes problems - and it‟s such a waste of materials and energy. Did you know that of the solar energy that falls on a paddock only 0.1% ends up in the food that leaves the farm? Only in the last few years have people begun to realise that closed-cycle food production in or near cities could be immensely more efficient than open-systems farming. If we go the closed-system way we can produce flavoursome, nutritious and safe food more cheaply and nature can have back the land that it needs.
Carbon dioxide in the air, it‟s the highest for more than 400,000 years, and if it isn‟t already very soon it will be the highest for 22 million years! Does that seem like a prudent thing to do? The living
25 things alive today didn‟t evolve to cope with conditions we are thrusting on them. We are sailing our planet into uncharted waters that will be full of surprises. Some may not be too pleasant. To get back into secure territory we need to get carbon dioxide in the air down to 300 parts per million from the 370 ppm that we have now. It will mean, according to a CSIRO study, that industrial emissions will have to fall to………about zero!
Initiatives to be woven into the scenario 5-in-1 Customer - sustainability-promoting environmental management systems building whole-system slices of the new economy - to be able to get concurrent engineering - the idea is …to get whole-system gains you need to do everything in the new economy at once rather than having isolate experiments with different issues. Problem is, if you’re building a new economy transforming the whole economy at once is too big a job. The solution is to ramp up the scale of change starting with small scale experimentation, but most of the key elements of the new economy should be experimented with together. This requires more thinking-through from the start to work out what the multiple elements are. And it requires a bigger experimental effort at the start - imagine looking over the end state of this scenario and figuring out what aspects of all the final stages should be prefigured together at the outset…..
26
Appendices
The Aquarian profile The Aquarians15: people typified by concerns such as: slowing the pace of life increasing leisure/decreasing enforced work decreasing consumerism / materialism / promoting „enoughness‟ / promoting spiritual values rather than materialist or power orientated values promoting dematerialisation anti-economic growth achieving human scale settings for people to live in / “small is beautiful” promoting voluntary simplicity / against complexity increasing face-to-face and geographical community promoting a „natural‟ way of living anti-big corporations and the corporate state promoting direct democracy promoting direct personal production - reducing the amount of „intermediation‟ against concentrations of power favouring a return to the village or tribe as a social and physical context favouring decentralisation / against centralisation back to the land self-sufficiency / self-reliance / local control survivalism (preparing for or coping with major social/economic breakdown) promoting communalism over individualism in favour of solutions via lifestyle change rather than using technology to avoid lifestyle change counter-culturalists and alternative lifestylers
References
Tail end of file Check the change agents list Seeds for Change
15
Name taken from the musical “Hair” - relating to the “dawning of the Age of Aquarius” - the hippy golden age - the inspiration for counter-culturalists and alternative lifestylers that founded Nimbin back in the 1970s. This gave the trend for hippies to go to favoured settlements on the northern NSW coast and Qld coast. The Malaney region is an evolved and contemporary manifestation of this earlier development.
27
E:\GRIN\X-People & Organisations\Organisations\Groups with active links\Sustainable Living Foundation\Future Melbourne project\Scenario-Transformed-Mainstream.doc