Documents
Resources
Learning Center
Upload
Plans & pricing Sign in
Sign Out

Pakistan's Nuclear Program - APAN

VIEWS: 0 PAGES: 21

									                             UNCLASSIFIED

Pakistan’s Nuclear Program




         AFPAK – 20
         09 Sep 09

          UNCLASSIFIED
                                           UNCLASSIFIED


                       Agenda
•   Resources
•   Timeline
•   World Nuclear Arsenal Review
•   Pakistani Nuclear Weapons
•   Nuclear Weapons C2
•   Nuclear Scenario Casualty Assessment
•   Pakistani Nuclear Infrastructure
•   US National Interests in Pakistan
•   Conclusions
•   Questions
                                              UNCLASSIFIED


                    Resources

• Federation of American Scientists
• Center for Defense Information
• The Heritage Foundation
• Congressional Research Service
• Nuclear Weapons Archive
• United States National Security Strategy (2006)
• Overview of United States of America’s National
  Security Strategy 2009: Counterterrorism Policy
  Recommendations and Implications
• Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad
                                                                      UNCLASSIFIED


           Timeline to a Nuclear Pakistan
•   1947 – Pakistan gains independence from Great Britain
•   1948 – War with India
•   1958 – Military coup
•   1965 – War with India
•   1968 – Pakistan refuses to sign Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
•   1971 – War with India; loss of East Pakistan (Bangladesh)
•   1972 – Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto initiates Pakistan’s nuclear program
•   1974 – India successfully tests nuclear weapon; Pakistani efforts are
    redoubled
•   1975 – Abdul Qadeer Khan arrives in Pakistan with stolen nuclear
    technology
•   1976 – Construction begins at Kahuta facility under Abdul Qadeer Khan
•   1976 – Pakistan’s initiates global clandestine program to obtain nuclear
    weapons technology
•   1977 – Military coup
                                                                   UNCLASSIFIED


          Timeline to a Nuclear Pakistan
• 1987 – Pakistani government claims ability to test nuclear weapons
• 1989 – Multiple sources confirm Pakistan modifying F-16 fighters for
  nuclear weapon delivery
• 1990s – China provides assistance to Pakistan via numerous nuclear facility
  construction projects and possible weapons design assistance
• 11-13 May 1998 – India conducts five nuclear tests
• 28 May 1998 – Pakistan announces it has conducted five successful
  nuclear tests; independent testing accounts for two or three weapons
  with lower yields
• Feb 1999 – Lahore Agreements signed by India and Pakistan
• 1999 – Military coup
• 1999 – War with India (Kargil War)
• 2001 - US offers assistance to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal;
  Pakistan refuses Permissive Action Link installation
• 2008-2009 – Multiple Taliban attacks against Pakistani nuclear sites
                                                                  UNCLASSIFIED


Current World Nuclear Arsenal

                                         India – greater
                                         quantity of non-
                                         strategic nuclear
                                         weapons

                                         Pakistan – greater
                                         range; ability to
                                         strike throughout
                                         India ; may possess
                                         second strike option



              http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/nukestab.html
                                                                   UNCLASSIFIED


Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal




            http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/PakArsenal.html
                                                             UNCLASSIFIED


Hatf-1
  Year Deployed: 1995
  Dimensions: 6.0 meters length,
  0.55 meters diameter
  Weight: 1,500 kilograms
  Range: 80 kilometers
  Warhead: Single
  Yield: Conventional, chemical,
  or nuclear possible
  Locations: Unknown
  Number Deployed: 18 missiles




    http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/panukes.html#hatf1
                                                         UNCLASSIFIED


Hatf-2
    Year Deployed: Testing
    Dimensions: 9.75 meters
    length, 0.82 meters diameter
    Weight: 5,500 kilograms
    Range: 300 kilometers
    Warhead: Single
    Yield: Conventional, chemical,
    or nuclear possible
    Locations: Unknown
    Number Deployed: 1 missile



   http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/panukes.html#hatf2
                                                           UNCLASSIFIED


Hatf-4
Year Deployed: 2000
Dimensions: 9 meters length, 1
meter diameter
Weight: 6200 kilograms
Range: 750 kilometers
Warhead: Single
Yield: Conventional, chemical, or
nuclear
Locations: Unknown
Number Deployed: 20 missiles




     http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/panukes.html#hatf4
                                                         UNCLASSIFIED


Hatf-5
   Year Deployed: 1998
   Dimensions: 16 meters
   length, 1.35 meters
   diameter
   Weight: 16,000 kilograms
   Range: 1300-1500
   kilometers
   Warhead: Single
   Yield: Conventional,
   chemical, or nuclear
   Locations: Unknown
   Number Deployed: 5-10

   http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/panukes.html#hatf5
                                                            UNCLASSIFIED


M-11/CSS-7
       Year Deployed: 1992
       Dimensions: Unknown
       Weight: Unknown
       Propulsion: two stage solid
       Range: 300 kilometers
       Circular Error Probable:
       Unknown
       Warhead: Single
       Yield: Conventional, chemical,
       or nuclear possible
       Locations: Sargodha Air Force
       Base (reportedly stored in
       crates)
       Number Deployed: 40 missiles
     http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/panukes.html#m11
                                                                   UNCLASSIFIED


Pakistani Nuclear Weapon C2




             http://www.issi.org.pk/journal/2004_files/no_3/article/1a.htm
                                                                       UNCLASSIFIED


Pakistani Nuclear Weapon Ranges
                             Pakistani nuclear
                             weapons able to range
                             all major Indian
                             population centers and
                             nuclear weapons
                             repositories

                             May also range western
                             China, portions of Iran,
                             and US/NATO troop
                             positions in Afghanistan


               http://moinansari.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/pak-missile-range.gif
                                                              UNCLASSIFIED


Nuclear Scenario Casualty Assessment




                  http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp
                                                                    UNCLASSIFIED


Pakistani Nuclear Infrastructure
                  Pakistani nuclear facilities
                  location strategy based
                  upon threat posed by
                  Indian forces.

                  Several nuclear sites
                  located in or near Taliban
                  controlled/contested
                  regions.




                http://www.carnegieendowment.org/images/npp/Pakistan.jpg
                                                                               UNCLASSIFIED


             United States NSS (2006)
“Relations between India and Pakistan have improved, with an exchange of high-level
visits and a new spirit of cooperation in the dispute over Kashmir – a cooperation
made more tangible by humanitarian actions undertaken following a destructive
earthquake.”
           - page 14

“Progress with India has been achieved even as the United States has improved its
strategic relationship with Pakistan. For decades, outsiders acted as if good relations
with India and Pakistan were mutually exclusive. This Administration has shown that
improved relations with each are possible and can help India and Pakistan make
strides toward a lasting peace between themselves. America’s relationship with
Pakistan will not be a mirror image of our relationship with India.”
           - page 39
                                                                                                   UNCLASSIFIED


             United States NSS (2009?)
Pakistan: Threat of a Failed State with Nuclear Arms

“The prospect of Pakistan becoming a failed state with nuclear weapons
remains a major security challenge for the United States”… “the uncertainty
surrounding Pakistan’s nuclear weapons security raises serious questions about
nuclear confrontation on the Asian continent.”

“Pakistanis’ distrust of American involvement in domestic politics stems from
the widely held perception that US military and geopolitical actions in its
neighborhood are part of a larger aim to control its nuclear weapons.” “

Pakistan views its nuclear arsenal as its sole guarantor of political longevity and
main deterrent against neighboring India, whose conventional military
superiority has been demonstrated on the battlefield.”

“The possibility of a breach in Pakistani nuclear security remains a real threat to
US national security.”
                                            https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/4635
                                            UNCLASSIFIED


CJCS on Pakistani Nuclear Security
• I’m comfortable that it is secure. But there are
  limits on what we know in terms of a lot of the
  specifics, but I’m comfortable that from what I
  know of what we actually know and also what
  they told us, that right now they’re secure.”
  – Admiral Michael Mullen, 17 May 2009
                                           UNCLASSIFIED


                 Conclusions
• Pakistan has a long history of sharing nuclear
  weapons technology and information with
  anti-US nations/groups.
• The United States does not have complete
  information on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons
  program.
• Pakistan can no longer guarantee the security
  of their nuclear weapons.
            UNCLASSIFIED


Questions

								
To top