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					Second International Conference
   on Early Warning (EWC-II)
     Bonn, 16-18 October 2003


   Integrating Early Warning in Disaster
  Preparedness and Response in Morocco
              Mohamed JALIL
           hydraumet@casanet.net.ma
  VULNERABILITY OF
    MOROCCO TO
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
      HAZARDS
Vulnerability key-factors

Climate
Geomophology
Population and economy
 Vulnerability key-factors
 Climate
 Geomophology
 Population and economy

Characterised by variability
  Long-term variability
  Short-time variability
  Space variability
Dominated by the aridity
  Vulnerability key-factors
  Climate
  Geomophology
  Population and economy

Contrasted relief
  Mountains (Atlas Range, Rif heights)
  Coastal and west inland plains
  Saharan plateaux
Diversified local geography
Vulnerability key-factors
Climate
Geomophology
Population and economy

Population
  30 millions with a growth rate 1.7%
  56% live in urban area (the bulk in littoral)
  19% live below national poverty threshold
Economy
  Diversified but still dominated by agriculture
Hydrometeorological hazards

  The most remarkable and severe hazards
     hitting Morocco are DROUGHT and
      FLOODS, but sometimes OTHER
    hydrometeorological events can also
      become extreme and hazardous
Hydrometeorological hazards
Drought
Floods
Others

Structural stress
  The droughts are becoming more prolonged
  Severe impact on agriculture and water res.
Its impact is exacerbated in rural areas
  Rainfed agriculture (traditional farming and
   livestock rearing)
Hydrometeorological hazards
Drought
Floods
Others

Flooding is being a recurrent hazard
  Flash floods caused by convective storms
  Steady floods caused by heavy rain
Their impact is emphasised by:
  Local topography
  Land use change
  high population density (urban and suburban
   areas)
Hydrometeorological hazards
Drought
Floods
Others


  Meteorological conditions also play key
   role in the outbreak of other natural
              extreme events
      EW, DISATSERS
   PREPAREDNESS AND
        RESPONSE:
flooding and drought cases
Flooding

Flood Warning
Flood preparedness
Flood response
Observing networks: hydrometeorological stations,
       remote sensing data, aerologic data



                  FORCASTING
                    MODELS




            Warning bulletins
 Flooding hazards
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Monitoring system
  Meteorological ground-based stations
  Hydrological measuring stations
  Radio-sounding
  Radar network
  Satellite data and imagery
 Flooding hazards
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Forecasts
  Medium range forecast
  Synoptical range forecast by using ALADIN
   model outputs
  Short and Very Short range forecast
   improved by using radar echo
 Flooding hazards
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Warning bulletins
  Pre-alert bulletins
  Alert bulletins (BMS, BMA)
 Flooding hazards
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Long term activities
  Decentralisation of water planning
   governmental activity
  Hazard Reduction Programs using engineering
   measures (protective infrastructure)
  Mitigation measures (hydraulic domain
   regulations, afforestation, sewage master-
   plans, etc.)
 Flooding hazards
 Warning
 Preparedness and response


Short term activities
  Real-time following up of the hydromet
   situation using the guidelines of the Ministry
   of Equipment
  ORSEC (Organisation des Secours Relief
   Organisation) plans by a committee co-
   ordinated by the Prefecture
   Practical Guidelines for
 rainfall and flood disasters
         management
Booklet issued and regularly updated by the
 Ministry of Equipment. The key elements are:
      The organisation of material and human resources involved
       (duty personal, technicians, telecommunications)
      The organisation of the monitoring bureau (Command Post)
      Forecasting organisation (weather bulletins, alerts thresholds,
       warning management)
      Organisation and management of the intervention plan and
      Intervention Assessment.
 Flooding hazards
 Warning
 Preparedness and response


After-disaster management
  Relief and public assistance organisation
  Socio-economic assessment of the hazard
   impact
Drought


Drought Warning
Drought preparedness and response
 Drought
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Rainfall seasonal prediction programme
  Long term prediction of the precipitation
  Climate modelling using the statistical
   correlation between the precipitation and the
   global climate patterns
 Drought
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Al Masifa project
  Implemented in partnership with
   Météo_France, ONM (Algeria) and INM
   (Tunisia) with financial support from the EC
  Prediction of the “rainfall state”( dry, normal,
   wet)using the relationship between SST
   anomalies and regional precipitation
 Drought
 Warning
 Preparedness and response

Al Moubarak project
  An ongoing programme developed with
   Oklahoma university
  Climate modelling using the statistical
   correlation between the precipitation and the
   global climate patterns (NAO)
 Drought
 Warning
 Preparedness and response


Institutional arrangements
  Conseil Supérieur de l’Eau et du Climat (High
   Council of Water and Climate),
  Decentralisation of water planning (water
   agencies)
  Laws and regulations (law on water,
   environmental impact)
 Drought
 Warning
 Preparedness and response


Mitigation and adaptation programmes
  Investment incentive for the modernisation
   of irrigation methods and equipment
  Agronomic research
  Rural populations water supply programme
  Drought insurance
CONSTRAINTS AND
  DIFFICULTIES
Prohibitive cost of the EWS and the
 response measures
Geographical constraints making it difficult
 to deal with the whole territory
Weak co-ordination at the institutional level
Lack in public awareness and education
Lack in human capabilities although
 Morocco has good skilled engineers (Met.,
 Hydraulics, agriculture, etc.), the EW
 management capacities are still weak.
Thank you for your kindest
        attention

				
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posted:4/6/2013
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