Games by wangnianwu

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									What’s a Game?
Three Forces Shaping The Future of Videogames

               Peter Tamte, Destineer
                    October 2006
Videogame Distribution Now




developer   publisher   retailer   consumer
Videogame Distribution Now




developer               retailer   consumer

            publisher
Videogame Distribution Now




developer   publisher              consumer
                        retailer
A Repetitious Cycle

Games designed for
15-35 year-old male




                      15-35 year-old
                      Males buy games
Videogame Industry Rules


! Games are bought by 15-35 year-old males
! Games are sold in boxes
! Blockbusters are the only way to be profitable
! Games must be “fun”
Sony vs. Microsoft
France


!20-60MB = $35/mo.
Japan

!50MB =$35/mo.
!100MB = $50/mo.
!1GB = $90/mo.
United States


!Peter’s Internet Connection Choices:
  "   DSL 1.5MB = $40/mo.
  "   Cable 3MB = $50/mo.
Verizon FIOS


!10MB-50MB = $40/mo. - $160/mo.
!Available to 6 million customers by
 early-2007
Communications Infrastructure




               15MB-50MB Pipe:
               Internet, TV, Phone
                                     MEDIA HUB

 Server Farm
Choice
Force 1: Accessibility
Videogames vs. Hollywood

!Halo 2 opening sales bigger than
 biggest movie box-office opening ever
!Goldeneye the movie:
  "   $80 million+ to make
  "   $350 million in sales
!Goldeneye the videogame:
  "   $3 million to make
  "   $350 million in sales
Videogames vs. Hollywood


!   Halo 2: 5 million units sold in lifetime
!   American Idol: 20 million viewers every week
!   Grey’s Anatomy: 21 million viewers every week
!   Desperate Housewives: 20 million viewers every week
Videogame Access in Five Years
Videogames Get Accessible


! Different kinds of people play videogames
! Games get easier to play
! New kinds of games get made
! Lots more people play videogames
Casual Games Market

!Pogo
!Yahoo Games
!MSN Games
!RealArcade
!PopCap

!Casual Game Player:
  "   65% Female
  "   30-64 years old
Core Gamer?


!Photo of a young male core gamer
Core Gamer?


!Photo   of   young male core gamer
!Photo   of   young female gamer
!Photo   of   military enthusiast
!Photo   of   non-stereotypical gamer
!Photo   of   non-stereotypical gamer
Force 2: More Niches.
        Bigger Niches.
Videogame Distribution Now




developer   publisher   retailer   consumer
Scarcity vs.
Abundance
“Hits have become the lens through
which we see our own culture.
Celebrities and mass-market products
are the connective tissue of our
common experience.”
                  ! Chris Anderson, The Long Tail
Broadcast vs. Broadband
Scarcity vs. Abundance


!Scarcity:
  "   80% of sales come from 20% of products.
!Abundance:
  "   iTunes: 98% of the first 1 million tracks
      were downloaded.
  "   NetFlix: 95% of its DVD titles are rented at
      least once per quarter.
      The Decline of Mass Market


       !Hollywood Box Office declining
       !Network TV ratings declining
              "   1954: 74% of households with TVs watch
                  “I Love Lucy”
              "   2005: All 4 networks combined have less
                  than 50% of TV audience




Source: “The Long Tail” by Chris Anderson
Network TV Audiences


!Loss for network TV
!Gain for
  "   Internet
  "   Videogames
  "   Cable TV
Cable TV


!ESPN
!Disney
!History Channel
!Nickelodeon
!Cartoon Network
!Fox News
!Lifetime
     Top PC Games, December 1995

      1. Myst
      2. Star Wars Rebel Assault
      3. Warcraft II
      4. 11th Hour
      5. The Dig
      6. Microsoft Flight Simulator
      7. Hexen
      8. Mechwarrior II
      9. Frontpage Sports: Football
      10.Sim City 2000



Source: NPD
     Top Videogames, 2005

      1. Madden NFL
      2. Star Wars Battlefront II
      3. WWE Smackdown vs Raw
      4. Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
      5. Need for Speed: Most Wanted
      6. SOCOM 3
      7. Mario Kart
      8. NBA Live
      9. Tony Hawk: American Wasteland
      10.Call of Duty 2



Source: NPD
      “Core Gamers”

                      Core (12%)             Casual (48%)
                      73% male
                                             49% male
                      29 years old
                                             36 years old
                      12 hrs / wk gaming
                                             2 hrs./ wk gaming
                      Buy 24 games / yr.
                                             Buy 0 - 2 games / yr.
                      Buy 57% of all games
                                             Buy 14% of all games
                      Early adopters
                      Technically savvy




          Occasional (40%)
          65% male
          32 years old
          8 hrs / wk gaming
          Buy 3-6 games / yr.
          Buy 29% of all games




Source: Ziff-Davis, 1998
“The new core gamer is the
one who makes a hobby out of
your game.”

                  !Bing Gordon
Future of TV


               15MB-50MB Pipe:
               Internet, TV, Phone



 Server Farm
Future of TV
Force 3: Games Get
         Serious
Videogame Industry Rules


! Games are bought by 15-35 year-old males
! Games are sold in boxes
! Blockbusters are the only way to be profitable
! Games must be “fun”
#3 Best-selling Videogame
Second Quarter, 2006




!Grand Theft Auto?
!God of War?
!Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter?
!Elder Scrolls?
#3 Best-selling Videogame
Second Quarter, 2006
Majesco Cooking Mama
Guitar Hero
“Serious” Games

! Starwood Hotels (Westin, Sheraton, W, etc.):
  "   Using Second Life to test new hotel concept
! Cold Stone Creamery:
  "   Staff training
! United Nations:
  "   Food drop management
! Cornell University
  "   Teach Nanotechnology
! Columbia & Oxford:
  "   Teach emergency preparedness for relief workers
“Games for Health”


!Lower patient’s stress prior to surgery
!Educate patients about diabetes
!Simulate the outbreak of pandemics
!Assist with exercise and physical
 therapy
!Train surgeons
Serious Games


!Pulse (Breakaway Games)
!Re-mission (HopeLabs)
!Darfur is Dying
Very Serious Games
“Hell House”
Marine Picture


!Marine in fatigues, exhausted from
 combat
First to Fight Screen Shot -- all
screen
A New Videogame Model

             TECHNOLOGIES




COMMERCIAL                    TRAINING
VIDEOGAMES    Destineer     SIMULATIONS




             AUTHENTICITY
First to Fight
                 ! Destineer’s Minneapolis Studio
                 ! Both training tool and game
                 ! Shipped simultaneously in April 2005:
                    "   5 Languages, 3 Platforms:
                         Xbox, PC, Mac
                 ! Top 10 Best-selling Xbox Game,
                       April 2005 (NPD)
                 ! 350,000+ units sold
                 ! “Best modern military tactical
                    shooter available today”
                         # Computer Games Magazine
                 ! “10 Best Xbox Co-operative
                    Multiplayer Games”
                         # IGN
First to Fight Video
Destineer Training Simulations


!Military organizations
!Intelligence community
!Law Enforcement
!US and International
US Military Casualties in Iraq


!2,747 Killed
!20,468 Wounded
US Military Simulation Spending


                      Enlisted/Non-com              $3.3 Billion
                         Simulations
                             5%




                                      Traditional
                                      Simulations
                                         95%




Data: Frost & Sullivan and Destineer Estimate
Top Grunt


!Picture of Marine Grunt
Generational Technology Upgrade



  2000-2005             2006-2010
  Single CISC Processor Triple-core RISC Processor
  733-Mhz               2.3-Ghz
  32-128MB RAM          512MB-1GB RAM
Next-generation Graphics
Next-generation Capabilities


             ! Animation
                "   Fully articulated body and facial
                    animation
             ! Artificial Intelligence
                "   Psychology and emotion behavioral
                    modeling
             ! Realistic physics
Videogame-based Training Systems


! Put users in real-world situations and real-world
  environments
! Allow users to:
   "   Experience hundreds of scenarios
   "   Make thousands of decisions
   "   Experiment
   "   Learn from mistakes
   "   Train as a unit
Very Serious Games


!Marine Picture from other slide
The Battle
Videogame Industry Rules


! Games are bought by 15-35 year-old males
! Games are sold in boxes
! Blockbusters are the only way to be profitable
! Games must be “fun”
Military Channel 2016
Users Cluster
Save Lives
What’s a Game?
Thank You




            Thank You

								
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