News Selection

NEWS SELECTION Weekly selected news articles with a focus on agribusiness and the Mercosur FrontPage OCTOBER 16, 2008 WORLD FINANCIAL TIMES US unveils $250bn rescue plan Hurting the real economy Bernanke: amenaza Economía enfrenta gran THE ECONOMIST AMERICA ECONOMIA LA NACION La verdad incómoda A otro perro con ese hueso AMERICA ECONOMIA LATIN AMERICA BLOOMBERG Brazil Real Losses May Reach $28 Billion, Hurt Profit AGRICULTURE USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates E-MAIL US: dbasa@dba.com.uy VISIT OUR WEB PAGE: www.dbacorporatefinance.com October 14 2008 US unveils $250bn rescue plan The US on Tuesday made its most aggressive move so far to tackle the financial crisis, unveiling a plan to inject about $250bn of public money into the US banking system as part of its $700bn rescue package agreed earlier this month. After securing the participation of nine large banks, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, at a Treasury department summit on Monday, the administration rolled out the terms at which it is prepared to plough money into a much vaster array of US lenders. ―Government owning a stake in any private US company is objectionable to most Americans – me included,‖ said Hank Paulson, treasury secretary. ―Yet the alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable.‖ Financial institutions will have until mid November to decide whether they want to participate in the government recapitalisation scheme. The minimum capital injection will be 2 per cent of risk-weighted assets and the maximum will be 3 per cent of riskweighted assets, with an overall cap at $25bn. Government interventions The interactive feature examines the government rescue measures in detail The Treasury will be taking non-voting preferred shares in the banks, redeemable after three years. The securities will pay an annual dividend rate of 5 per cent for the first five years which will rise to 9 per cent after that and the government will receive warrants to convert them into common stock. There will also be some restrictions on executive compensation at the companies participating in the programme. The decision to take equity positions in US banks represents a dramatic shift in the original purpose of the $700bn financial rescue plan passed by Congress early this month. Both the Treasury department and most legislators had expected the government to use the money primarily to buy troubled assets from financial institutions. But as the crisis escalated in recent days, a more radical approach was sought. As well as recapitalising US banks, authorities announced additional steps to bolster the frozen credit markets on Tuesday. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation moved to temporarily guarantee the senior debt of all FDIC-insured institutions, as well as deposits in non-interest bearing deposit transaction accounts. In addition, the Federal Reserve announced more details of its plan to buy commercial paper directly from issuers such as banks and corporations, which will begin on October 27. ‖Americans can be confident that every resource is being brought to bear: historical understanding, technical expertise, economic analysis, and political leadership,‖ said Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman. The confirmation of the bail-out helped US futures surge. On Monday the S&P 500, which last week fell 18.2 per cent, rose 11.6 per cent – the biggest daily gain since the volatile trading of the Great Depression. In Europe, equity markets built on Monday’s big gains as they continued to rebound from last week’s record lows. The FTSE 100, which recorded its second biggest gain in its 24-year history on Monday, jumped more than 6 per cent on Tuesday, taking it above the 5,000 level. The Xetra Dax, which surged 11.4 per cent on Monday, gained another 5.7 per cent on Tuesday and the CAC 40 rallied 6 per cent. In Asia, the Nikkei 225, which was closed for a public holiday on Monday, surged more than 14 per cent to close at 9,447.57, its biggest daily gain on record, and the Hang Seng rose 3.2 per cent, bringing its two-day advance to 14 per cent. FrontPage Oct 15th 2008 Hurting the real economy The impact of the financial crisis on some of the most basic industries IT IS about as far as you can get from the woes of Wall Street:the mucky business of digging ore out of the ground, shipping it across the oceans and turning it into steel, the feedstock of industry. So the recent slump in raw-material prices and the decline in shipping costs indicate just how far-reaching the consequences of the global financial crisis will be for the real economy. Since the early summer the price of steel has fallen by 20-70% and the key rate for bulk shipping of commodities is down by more than four-fifths. There are even stories of grain cargoes piling up in ports in the Americas. Their buyers’ letters of credit have not been honoured, because of a lack of confidence in the banks that underwrite them. At least one Australian producer has had the same problem with iron ore shipments to China. And shipowners are having trouble raising finance for new vessels. The most spectacular reflection of falling activity has been the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which traces prices for shipping bulk cargoes such as iron ore from producers such as Brazil and Australia to markets in America, Europe and China. The index has plunged by 85% after hitting a record high of 11,793 points in late May. It is a leading indicator of international trade and, by extension, of economic activity. In the past couple of years the index has been driven up by the boom in China, as that economy sucks in raw materials in bulk-carrying ships and pumps out finished products, which are exported in vessels. The weakness is because of the slowing of world demand and the arrival of new capacity following the recent boom in shipbuilding. There are also signs of slowing demand for the container ships that take China’s manufactured goods to Western markets. The latest forecasts show growth in container demand falling from 15% a year to barely 5%. Steel prices have also been falling fast from record highs. In America the price of coil steel, used to make cars and white goods, has fallen by 20% since May. The price of steel billets, which are traded on the London Metal Exchange, has tumbled by 70% since May. Steelmakers, including ArcelorMittal, the industry leader, and Russian and Chinese firms, are moving to cut production. Although China’s iron ore imports in the first nine months of the year were up by 22% on 2007, there are fears among Australian mining firms that the cuts in Chinese steel production could presage a pause in China’s boom. Mount Gibson, an Australian producer, has given warning that stockpiles of ore are piling up in China. Iron-ore prices on the spot market have fallen by roughly half this year, to $100 a tonne or less. The prices of copper, nickel and zinc have also fallen by half or more this year, and aluminium is down by a third. Those drops, in turn, have battered the share prices of mining companies. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, two giants that are big exporters of iron ore from Australia to China, say that they will not be too badly hit by falling demand. They do expect rivals with higher costs to rein in their output. To some extent, that is already happening. Ferrexpo, a Ukrainian iron-ore producer, has said it will postpone a decision about whether to expand. Rio Tinto itself has reduced output at one Chinese aluminium mill. Alcoa, a big American aluminium firm which reported a sharp fall in profits this month, has shut a smelter in America and says it will halve its planned investments next year. Other firms have scrapped planned nickel and zinc mines. Nonetheless, the bigger mining firms are far from despair. Alberto Calderon of BHP points out that the Baltic Dry Index is extremely volatile; in his view, it is not a good indicator of the long-term prospects of the mining industry. He expects the Chinese economy to keep growing by 6-9% a year for the next five years. Rio Tinto is even more sanguine: it does not foresee China’s growth falling below 8%. Tom Albanese, its boss, says the Chinese economy is merely ―pausing for breath‖. Both firms point out that some metals, such as copper, are still in short supply, and that the credit crunch will only make it harder to finance new mines. By delaying expansions and squeezing marginal producers, it might actually sow the seeds for a recovery in metals prices sooner than most analysts expect. At any rate, BHP is still keen to buy Rio Tinto—an indication, presumably, that it still thinks raw materials is a good business to be in. FrontPage 15 de octubre de 2008 Bernanke: Economía enfrenta gran amenaza El presidente de la Reserva Federal, en una reunión en el Club de Economía de Nueva York, dijo que tomará tiempo restaurar los flujos normales de crédito. por Reuters Washington. Las turbulencias en los mercados de crédito representan una "amenaza significativa" para la ya desacelerada economía estadounidense, dijo el miércoles el presidente de la Reserva Federal, Ben Bernanke, sugiriendo una mayor disposición a bajar nuevamente las tasas de interés. En declaraciones ante el Club de Economía de Nueva York, Bernanke dijo que llevará algo de tiempo restaurar los flujos normales de crédito, al tiempo que prometió que la Fed seguirá actuando de manera activa para sofocar la crisis. "Al restringir los flujos de crédito a las familias, las empresas y los Gobiernos estatales y locales, las turbulencias en los mercados y las presiones de financiamiento sobre las empresas representan una amenaza significativa al crecimiento económico", declaró Bernanke. "Seguiremos usando todas las herramientas a nuestra disposición para mejorar el funcionamiento del mercado y la liquidez, y para reducir las presiones en los mercados clave de crédito y financiamiento", afirmó, agregando que la rápida respuesta de las autoridades diferenció esta crisis de la Gran Depresión de la década de 1930. La Fed, en una acción coordinada con otros bancos centrales, redujo su tasa de interés en medio punto porcentual la semana pasada. Pero aún con los esfuerzos del Gobierno para restaurar el crédito, Bernanke advirtió que la economía tardará en recuperarse. "La estabilización de los mercados financieros es un primer paso clave, pero incluso si se estabilizan como esperamos, la recuperación económica no ocurrirá de inmediato", sostuvo. Las acciones, que ya caían por datos económicos débiles, profundizaron sus pérdidas tras las declaraciones de Bernanke. "Los comentarios de Bernanke refuerzan la sensación de que la Fed bajará las tasas de interés cuando se reúna el 29 de octubre", dijo Tony Crescenzi, estratega de Miller, Tabak & Co. en Nueva York. "Las posibilidades de una rebaja de tasas fueron impulsadas por el énfasis de Bernanke sobre los riesgos para el crecimiento económico y una moderación en las presiones inflacionarias", agregó. Bernanke dijo que el sector inmobiliario sigue siendo el eslabón más débil dentro de la economía, pero también mencionó una "marcada desaceleración" en el gasto del consumidor, la inversión empresarial y el mercado laboral. Además, anticipó que los mercados de crédito tardarían tiempo en reactivarse y dijo que las exportaciones se desacelerarían. Si bien la inflación se ha mantenido elevada en el último tiempo, Bernanke dijo que las expectativas estaban estables o en baja y que los precios de las importaciones se estaban moderando. Estos factores, junto con la mayor debilidad de la economía y la caída en los precios de las materias primas, "deberían conducir a tasas de inflación más consistentes con la estabilidad de precios", indicó. "Pienso que la evidencia es que ahora los problemas con la inflación se están moderando y (la inflación) parece estar regresando a la estabilidad de precios a un ritmo razonable", dijo Bernanke en respuesta a una pregunta. El jefe de la Fed defendió además la decisión del Gobierno de permitir la caída de Leham Brothers. "Una solución del sector público para Lehman demostró ser no factible, ya que la firma no podía presentar el colateral suficiente para dar una seguridad razonable de que se repagaría un préstamo de la Reserva Federal", señaló. Posteriormente, el informe Libro Beige de la Fed indicó que la actividad económica se debilitó en todo Estados Unidos en septiembre, debido a que los inversores reconsideraron inversiones, los consumidores redujeron sus gastos y el panorama general se deterioró. "La actividad económica se debilitó en septiembre a lo largo de los 12 distritos de la Reserva Federal", señaló el banco central estadounidense en su Libro Beige, un compendio del panorama económico del país. FrontPage 14 de octubre de 2008 La verdad incómoda Caída en valor y volumen de las exportaciones. Restricción crediticia. Devaluación regional. ¿Qué escenario enfrenta el comercio y qué puede hacer el Gobierno para mitigar el impacto? Se prevé una desaceleración del comercio Se instaló una verdad incómoda: no hay "desacople" posible a la recesión. La reacción en cadena del colapso financiero llegó a la economía real. El consumo se retrae en Estados Unidos y Europa. China exporta menos, ajusta su producción, limita sus importaciones agrícolas, de mineral de hierro, de petróleo. Brasil recibe el impacto. La Argentina no lo puede evitar. Una seca sobreviene a la liquidez. Se escapan los capitales. Y el financiamiento escasea o será híper selectivo. ¿Qué pueden hacer las empresas internacionalizadas con este horizonte? ¿Puede el Gobierno echar mano a alguna política de amortiguación? LA NACION relevó las opiniones de especialistas en comercio, en economía y en transporte internacional para intentar dimensionar este fenómeno global. Hay oportunidades en la crisis. Pero ésta es sombría y de largo aliento. Raúl Ochoa, docente del Instituto de Comercio Internacional de la Fundación Standard Bank, deslizó que en 2009 habrá una baja en el total de las exportaciones agrícolas. "En volumen será de entre 4 o 5 por ciento. Y en valor la merma no bajará del 10% respecto de 2008", señaló. Un cálculo conservador de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), citado por Ochoa, habla de una caída del comercio global de entre el 5 y el 10 por ciento. "Claramente, tiene que ver con Estados Unidos y Europa. Y esto impactará fuerte en nuestra matriz agroindustrial", ponderó. El economista Alieto Guadagni estimó que los volúmenes exportados tenderán a disminuir y que la próxima cosecha será inferior a la última debido a la sequía, los menores precios internacionales, las retenciones y los mayores costos de los agroquímicos y fertilizantes. "También disminuirán los volúmenes exportados de petróleo y subproductos y los productos industriales, como los automóviles. Todo se vincula al enfriamiento de las tres grandes economías mundiales: Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y Japón", indicó Guadagni. Eduardo Fracchia, director del Area Economía del IAE Business School, dijo que el mundo está parado sobre "una crisis de confianza". Y apuntó que existe una revisión de proyectos de expansión vinculados a las commodities , cuya cotización se desplomó por la huida de las posiciones especulativas. "En esta incertidumbre, se tomó al dólar como moneda de tendencia. Se compraron bonos del Tesoro [norteamericano] y dólares, lo que no deja de sorprender porque Estados Unidos fue el epicentro de la crisis pero muchos lo siguen pensando como bastión del capitalismo; parece que el dólar, a pesar de todo, es un refugio", reflexionó Fracchia. Que no haya depresión "Ya estamos en una recesión. La mejor esperanza es que 2009 sea recesivo y no depresivo, con precios a la baja y pérdida de empleos. El último ejemplo fue el Japón de la década del 90, con tasa de interés negativa, enorme déficit fiscal y deflación. Japón sólo volvió a crecer por China", explicó Ochoa. El tema es que hoy la crisis financiera norteamericana y europea tiene su correlato en la economía real de China, cuyas exportaciones a esos mercados caerán. "China se ajustará, comprará menos materias primas agrícolas, de la construcción y petróleo, del cual es el segundo importador mundial", indicó Ochoa. La Argentina, "ausente" del circuito internacional de crédito, no podrá impedir que su comercio exterior se vea afectado. "El impacto se va a notar en la pérdida de líneas de crédito para la importación y la exportación", dijo Ochoa. Esto se traduce en complicaciones para la importación de bienes de capital e insumos y en las exportaciones con cartas de crédito. El costo del crédito comercial será alto y los bancos serán mucho más selectivos. Las políticas trasnacionales bancarias harán que las filiales giren dinero a las casas matrices. Hasta que se restaure el sistema de confianza, escaseará el crédito para importaciones, lo que provocará menos actividad económica por la menor tasa de inversiones. ¿Qué hace una empresa internacionalizada en este contexto, amén de asegurarse las líneas de crédito para seguir financiándose? "No sólo está el tema de lograr abrir cartas de crédito, sino ver qué costo tendrán, qué garantías les pedirán, y a qué plazo financiarán los proveedores", señaló Ochoa. La exposición de una empresa exportadora será mayor a más pendiente esté de los reembolsos por IVA por parte del Estado que, no sólo no paga en tiempo y forma, sino que no devenga intereses. La falta de crédito limita la importación de insumos y bienes de capital. Y la producción pierde así su fluidez. "Un bien de capital complejo se produce a largo plazo y se vende a un plazo mayor aún. Las cadenas de pago se van a cortar al mínimo", indicó Diego Pérez Santisteban, director de la Cámara de Importadores y de Deloitte. Convergencia "Es un momento para coordinar políticas con los países vecinos. Brasil, que está más internacionalizado, va a sufrir más, pero el gobierno de Lula reaccionó rápidamente con una devaluación fuerte, que no responde a la revalorización del dólar, y lo hizo para alinearse con la región", reconoció Pérez Santisteban. En la misma línea opinó Enrique Mantilla, de la Cámara de Exportadores: "Lula no se queda quieto. Presentó un plan para desregular las exportaciones, para facilitarlas. Es como un plan anti-ROE [en alusión a los registros oficiales para exportar carnes, granos y lácteos], como si hubiera cerrado la Oncca", señaló. Brasil representa exportaciones. el 35% de nuestras importaciones y el 25% de nuestras "Si consensuamos las políticas financieras y bancarias, y mantenemos el comercio, creo que allí está la base para capear el temporal, junto con el control del gasto y una política que le devuelva la rentabilidad a las commodities , afectada por la caída de los precios internacionales", sostuvo Pérez Santisteban. La decisión política, entonces, no es un as en la manga, pero es una buena carta: una baja en las retenciones y apoyo a la importación de tecnología e insumos cuyos precios tenderán a la baja, son algunas de las sugerencias de los especialistas consultados. Para Mantilla hay alternativas para sortear la situación. "Hay un cambio de contexto, pero el Gobierno no cambió su texto todavía. Está a tiempo de hacerlo, aunque las commodities ya recibieron el impacto, y eso tiene su correlato fiscal", explicó. Según el directivo, la evolución del ingreso de divisas dependerá de los sectores y su nivel de elasticidad, tanto al precio como al nivel de ingresos de quien los consuma. Y citó algunos ejemplos: el turismo brasileño en la Argentina se resentirá tras la devaluación de más del 40% del real frente a una del peso de alrededor del 6%. "Estamos más caros. Con la desaceleración de la economía baja el consumo porque hay menos capacidad de compra de dólares y el crédito se achica. Brasil, entonces, limitará por ejemplo la compra de autos argentinos, y la industria automotriz local deberá revisar sus planes", indicó. Hay productos inelásticos al precio pero elásticos al ingreso, como los suntuarios o sofisticados: los vinos finos destinados a países desarrollados, que reducirán su consumo, se verán igualmente afectados. En cambio, los alimentos (inelasticidad total) se seguirán exportando, pero a menor precio. La caída en los precios debería implicar un mayor volumen de exportación; pero no es así. Como los bancos prestan menos, fuerzan a las empresas a bajar su nivel de actividad porque es como si les quitaran el capital de trabajo. "La Argentina venía en bicicleta en una pista, con un mundo favorable. De golpe, te sacaron de la pista y estás en una montaña. Tenés que cambiar la bicicleta", graficó Mantilla. Metáfora al margen, habría que: mirar aquellos sectores de exportación con altas retenciones y regulaciones que encarecen sus performance comercial y mejorarles la competitividad "aflojando" en algunas restricciones o mejorando su tipo de cambio. "Brasil reconoció una suba del costo de financiar a las empresas. Al asumirlo, pienso que va a inyectar crédito con las reservas para motivar las exportaciones. Lula las privilegia en este momento difícil", dijo. Favorecer la exportación Cuando no entran capitales para darle liquidez al mercado y financiar la actividad, el país pasa a depender del superávit comercial. "El presupuesto de 2009 habla de unos US$ 11.000 millones, pero la realidad es que se acerca más a unos 5000 millones", advirtió Mantilla. Pérez Santisteban cree que en el país hay liquidez hasta ahora orientada al consumo pero que, si se vuelca inteligentemente a la producción "se puede sacar una ventaja competitiva para importar y para producir para exportar". Una opción para hacerlo es la que propuso hace un tiempo la Cámara de Exportadores: los "sistemas de aceptación exportadora", un instrumento de corto plazo para aprovechar la liquidez en dólares (del colchón o en el exterior) mediante el cual las empresas exportadoras emiten un papel, los tenedores de dólares lo adquieran y así financian la producción exportable, al tiempo que le devuelven liquidez a los bancos. "Las matrices que daban líneas de crédito para prefinanciar exportaciones ya no lo hacen. Este es un instrumento de transformación de capital, que capta ahorro en dólares, moviliza el capital atesorado, genera una masa de crédito para financiar exportaciones y, al mismo tiempo, ayuda a bajar la tasa de interés", resumió Mantilla. Siguiendo con las políticas activas, el giro a la convergencia macro con Brasil es deseable para que se repita lo que pasó cuando devaluó y la Argentina persistió con la convertibilidad. "En este caso, ¿es realista el dólar a 3,19 del presupuesto 2009?", preguntó Mantilla; al cierre de esta edición, tocaba los 3,29. Consultado sobre su impresión respecto de la respuesta que dará la región, Fracchia se sinceró: "Es deseable una coordinación, pero creo que cada país se va a jugar solo. Hay una tendencia a la devaluación de las monedas", manifestó. El peso se había atrasado un poco respecto al dólar. Con lo que cierta depreciación "no viene mal", dijo Fracchia. Con un ojo en la evolución de la moneda, el otro tiene que estar en la inflación. 2009 es, además, un año electoral donde la presión por el gasto público también estará latente. Así, la mirada debe converger en la realidad. Es cruda e incómoda. Pero es la única verdad que hay. FrontPage 25 de setiembre de 2008 A otro perro con ese hueso Los compañeros de fórmula de McCain y Obama, o no saben nada de América Latina, como Palin, o han tenido una trayectoria errática y oportunista, como Biden. Mala noticia para la región. "Perros de batalla" es la frase que se ocupa en Washington para definir el rol de los candidatos a vicepresidente en las campañas electorales. Son las personas que deben recibir y responder los ataques, mostrando todos los dientes y mordiendo al enemigo donde más le duela. Un trabajo que tanto Joe Biden (compañero del demócrata Barack Obama) como Sarah Palin (del republicano John McCain) han comenzado a ejecutar, desde sus respectivas designaciones, y una labor que tiene como máximo exponente al actual vicepresidente republicano, Dick Cheney. Además del perfil canino de los VP, los segundos al mando tienen la responsabilidad (o el anhelo) de quedar a cargo del país en caso de que el presidente no sea apto para cumplir sus funciones o simplemente se muera, como ha ocurrido nueve veces en la historia de Estados Unidos, incluidos los casos de la muerte de JFK o la renuncia de Richard Nixon por el caso Watergate. Sin embargo, dejando de lado los infortunios, el verdadero rol del vicepresidente se define más bien, según varios analistas en Washington, a partir del espacio que le dé su compañero de fórmula. Si se convertirán en fuertes asesores de seguridad nacional o política exterior o energía, dependerá mucho de la experiencia que tenga el futuro presidente y las áreas en las que éste los deje destacarse. A la hora de hablar de los temas en que tanto Biden como Palin podrían sobresalir, América Latina parece estar al final de la lista. En sus 36 años como senador el candidato a VP demócrata se ha distinguido mucho más por su experiencia e interés en Medio Oriente y Europa, mientras la compañera de fórmula de McCain ha sido ampliamente criticada por su poca trayectoria en política exterior desde las lejanas y frías tierras de Alaska. "Ninguno de los dos candidatos a vicepresidente posee mucho conocimiento sobre América Latina. Biden está más preparado en política exterior, pero no necesariamente en temas que tocan al resto del continente. No tengo expectativas en ninguno de los dos", sentencia Peter Hakim, presidente del think tank Diálogo Interamericano. A pesar del pesimismo de Hakim y de varios analistas vinculados con Latinoamérica, cuando se mira en detalle lo que relaciona a cada uno de los candidatos a vicepresidente con la región, Biden parece gozar de una cierta ventaja en su récord. El senador por el estado de Delaware ha viajado cuatro veces a América Latina: dos a Colombia y dos a México. Además, su alto perfil en el Comité de Relaciones Exteriores del Senado lo ha mantenido vinculado a temas y votaciones como inmigración, donde se ha mostrado partidario de dar una vía a la legalización de 12 millones de indocumentados, pero, al mismo tiempo, ha votado a favor de la construcción de la muralla de 1.126 kilómetros en la frontera con México. "Biden está a favor de la reforma inmigratoria, él votó por la muralla, pero ahí hay un compromiso político detrás (.) Si votas por la muralla, de alguna forma estás más cubierto políticamente para sacar adelante reformas internas más sensibles en inmigración", dice Christopher Sabatini, director de política del think tank Consejo de las Américas. "En el Senado él no ha tenido un rol tan prominente en puntos relacionados con la región, porque ha dejado que Christopher Dodd (senador de Connecticut) juegue ese rol", agrega. El tema Cuba tampoco ha estado ajeno a Biden. En 1996 votó a favor de la ley HelmsBurton que permite demandar a empresas extranjeras que se beneficien con propiedades estadounidenses confiscadas en la isla. También votó a favor de la flexibilización de las restricciones de viajes y remesas desde Estados Unidos a La Habana. Ahora, si de seguridad en la región se trata, el compañero de fórmula de Obama es partidario de políticas conservadoras calcadas a las de la actual administración. "Biden es un ávido proponente de la guerra internacional contra las drogas, lo que implica la militarización de América Latina y que Estados Unidos se involucre aún más en la región. De hecho, él apoyó fuertemente el plan Colombia", explica Juan Carlos Hidalgo, coordinador de proyectos para América Latina de Cato Institute. "En el único tema que se le ha visto realmente involucrado con la región, es en el control de las drogas y un poco en inmigración. En ambos casos no ha estado bien informado", resume Hakim. En el extremo del hemisferio Sarah Palin, en tanto, es o un misterio o una página en blanco: no ha viajado nunca a América Latina. Como gobernadora de Alaska no ha tenido que mostrar su posición en relación a temas como inmigración, relaciones con México, Cuba o con ningún país de la región en general. Sin embargo, hay dos puntos que los republicanos han destacado con solidez sobre Palin y que pueden acercarla a América Latina: energía y comercio. Pero lo anterior no asegura nada: "Ella nunca ha salido de Estados Unidos. Creo que ese nivel de inexperiencia indica que se va a centrar en temas internos, como también en energía, donde podría haber un nexo", explica Sabatini. Sin embargo, la gobernadora de Alaska ha declarado abiertamente que apoya "el comercio exterior porque ayuda a la economía doméstica e internacional". Esta posición la acerca a América Latina y a los países que en este momento buscan acuerdos comerciales con Estados Unidos, como Colombia y Panamá. Aunque su residencia en Alaska parezca tenerla aislada del resto del continente, es indiscutible que al menos Chile y México deberían estar en su horizonte lejano, considerando que ambos países forman parte del ranking de socios comerciales top de ese estado, con un intercambio comercial de 23 y 129 millones de dólares durante 2006. Este tema, justamente, es quizás el talón de Aquiles de Biden en la región, quien ha votado en contra de los tratados de libre comercio con Perú, Chile y CAFTA; se ha opuesto al TLC con Colombia y declaró estar a favor de revisar el NAFTA. Entre debilidades y fortalezas, tanto Palin como Biden se medirán en los tradicionales debates políticos que ya se acercan en estos últimos dos meses de carrera, pero si América Latina es una debilidad común a ambos, ¿qué es lo lógico? Muy simple: cuando se trate de morderse, ignorarla. FrontPage October 16, 2008 Brazil Real Losses May Reach $28 Billion, Hurt Profit Brazilian companies may report as much as $28 billion of write-offs because of currency bets gone awry as they prepare to release third-quarter results. Potential losses of 60 billion reais ($28 billion) threaten the solvency of several businesses after the real's unexpected 30 percent drop against the dollar since Aug. 1, said Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a hedge fund manager and former Brazilian central bank deputy governor. Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA Executive Director Sergio Werlang estimated $24 billion in derivative losses. Standard & Poor's analyst Lisa Schineller said the problem may be bigger than what companies have so far disclosed. After a four-year rally that doubled the value of the real and sent the Bovespa stock index up 150 percent, Latin America's biggest economy has been battered by tumbling commodities and an exodus of international capital. Companies from Sadia SA to Aracruz Celulose SA and Grupo Votorantim made over-optimistic bets on the nation's currency that turned sour, adding to concerns that sent the Bovespa tumbling 11 percent yesterday. ``Management should be blamed for taking excessive risks for these currency and derivative gambles,'' Mark Mobius, who oversees about $30 billion in emerging-market equities at Templeton Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore, said in an e-mail. ``It's important for us to watch this activity very closely.'' The Bovespa index fell 1.4 percent to 36,320.55 at 10:18 a.m. New York time while the real was little changed at 2.2275 per dollar, compared with 2.2265 per dollar late yesterday. Aracruz, Sadia The loss estimates are emerging as Brazilian companies start reporting third-quarter results this week. Banco Santander SA cut its profit outlook for Aracruz after the world's biggest eucalyptus-pulp maker said Oct. 2 that it may post a $1 billion loss on derivatives contracts. Sadia's third-quarter results ``can only be disappointing'' because Brazil's secondbiggest food company, based in Concordia, may post a 1 billion-real financial loss from its currency derivatives and increased costs for servicing foreign-denominated debt, Itau Corretora said in a report dated Oct. 14. Grupo Votorantim, Brazil's biggest diversified industrial group, said Oct. 10 it spent 2.2 billion reais to end loss-making currency swaps. Its pulp-making unit, Votorantim Celulose e Papel SA, said last week in a regulatory filing it will likely report a non-cash loss of 145 million reais related to derivatives, instruments whose value are based on and determined by the underlying value of another security. VCP, based in Sao Paulo, is scheduled to release earnings Oct. 17. At least 200 Brazilian companies lost money in the currency derivatives market, Estado de S. Paulo reported Oct. 14, citing a government official it didn't name. The next day the Sao Paulo newspaper said Finance Minister Guido Mantega denied the government had such a list of companies. `Crisis of Confidence' In New Delhi yesterday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said ``the companies that bet and lost must cope with the responsibility,'' according to audio of a news conference on the federal government's Web site. ―There's a sort of crisis of confidence in the market about this in figuring out which companies did and didn't hedge responsibly,'' said Daniella Marques, who manages about 1.75 billion reais in assets at Mercatto Gestao de Recursos in Rio de Janeiro. ―This earnings season the companies that had strict control on their positions within their limits will benefit, and those that didn't will get hurt.'' The Bovespa stock index, the best-performer this year through June among the 20 biggest equity markets, lost half of value since its May record on concern the global credit crisis will halt economic growth and weaken demand for the nation's oil, metals and sugar. Commodities account for two-thirds of exports, according to the Brazilian Exporters Association in Rio. Mexican Losses In Mexico, currency-related losses also are taking a toll on companies after the peso lost 18 percent against the dollar in the past month. Controladora Comercial Mexicana SAB, a supermarket operator, filed for bankruptcy last week after saying foreigncurrency costs rose ―significantly.'' Grupo Industrial Saltillo SAB, a producer of auto parts and building materials, said it took a charge of 600 million pesos in the third quarter. Many estimates for Brazilian companies' losses are ―outrageous'' and the ―worst is over'' for bad currency bets in the derivatives market, Jorge Sant'Anna, a director at Cetip SA, the nation's clearing house for over-the-counter contracts, said in an interview yesterday. Companies may dispute the losses, ―saying they lacked knowledge about these transactions and will refuse to pay,'' Cassio Calil, managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview yesterday in New York. ―I think we will test the judicial system in the country.'' Sadia and Aracruz's announcements prompted at least 14 Brazilian companies to say they didn't speculate on the currency and only used hedging to protect against foreignexchange swings. ‘Imprudent Bets' Vieira da Cunha, the former Brazilian central bank official who now works as a partner at New York-based hedge fund Tandem Global Partners, said yesterday that several companies may go bankrupt from losses related to foreign-exchange derivatives. Many large companies made ``very imprudent bets on the path of the exchange rate,'' he said at a conference in New York. Banco Itau's Werlang, a former central bank director, told Valor Economico this week that companies' losses in the derivatives market may total $24 billion, equal to less than two months of exports. Schineller at S&P said in an interview in New York that the ―size of the problem'' isn't known. ―The market will be scouring balance sheets for any unidentified losses to see if companies that said they were acting responsibly really were,'' said Eduardo Favrin, who oversees $3 billion as head of equities at HSBC Investments Brasil in Sao Paulo. ―There's no way to get around this not hurting third-quarter results.'' FrontPage October 10, 2008 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are raised 27 million bushels this month as increased production more than offsets higher projected feed and residual use. Production is raised 37 million bushels based on the latest production estimate from the Small Grains Summary report. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels on higher-than-expected feed and residual use during the June-August quarter as indicated by the September 1 stocks. Projected exports are unchanged, but by-class export adjustments include a 10million-bushel increase for soft red winter wheat and 5-million-bushel reductions each for hard red spring and white wheat. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.60 to $7.40 per bushel, down from $6.70 to $7.80 last month on larger domestic and world supplies and recent sharp declines in cash and futures prices. Global 2008/09 wheat production is projected at a record 680.2 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month. Increases for Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States more than offset reductions for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan. Production for Canada is raised 1.9 million tons based on the latest official estimates. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for Russia on higher reported area and yields. Ukraine production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher reported yields. Production for Argentina is lowered 0.5 million tons as harvested area is reduced in line with reductions in government estimates for seeded area. Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Australia as government statistics and other reports indicate harvested area losses due to drought and haying. Kazakhstan production is lowered 0.2 million tons as harvest results confirm the effects of August and early September dryness that stressed spring sown wheat during the critical grain fill stage. World wheat imports and exports for 2008/09 are both raised slightly this month. World imports for 2007/08 are also revised higher this month. The largest increase is for Afghanistan as recently available shipment data for Kazakhstan supports a 1.1million-ton increase in 2007/08 Afghanistan wheat and wheat flour imports. World wheat feeding for 2008/09 is reduced 0.8 million tons this month as a 2.0million-ton reduction for EU-27 is only partly offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and smaller increases for Canada and the United States. EU-27 total grain feeding is lowered this month as recent reports indicate a second year of decline in meat and production in 2009; however, food, seed, and industrial use is up 1.0 million tons. An increase in global food, seed, and industrial use leaves world consumption up 0.7 million tons this month. Global consumption for 2008/09 is expected to be record high at 655.6 million tons on larger supplies and lower prices. Global ending stocks at 144.4 million tons are projected 4.5 million higher this month and 24.6 million higher than in 2007/08. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2008/09 are projected higher this month due to higher beginning stocks and production. September 1 corn stocks reported in the September 30 Grain Stocks report raise 2007/08 corn carryout 49 million bushels from last month’s projection. Corn production for 2008/09, forecast at 12.2 billion bushels in the October Crop Production report, is raised 128 million bushels from the previous forecast. Higher forecast yields more than offset slightly lower area. Ethanol corn use for 2008/09 is projected 100 million bushels lower as reduced gasoline consumption is expected to slow the expansion of blending modestly over the coming months. Other corn food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels reflecting slowing use as indicated by 2007/08 changes. Feed and residual use for 2008/09 is raised 150 million bushels on larger supplies, reduced availability of distillers grains, and sharply lower prices. Ending stocks are raised 136 million bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 to $5.20 per bushel, down 80 cents on each end of the range. Sharp declines in futures and cash prices over the past month have dramatically reduced price prospects for corn that was not forward priced. U.S. sorghum production for 2008/09 is raised 38 million bushels this month as increased area more than offsets a reduction in forecast yields. Barley production is raised 22 million bushels as reported in the Small Grains Summary. Feed and residual use is raised for both commodities with the increase for barley also supported by higher-than-expected June-August disappearance as indicated by the September 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are raised 10 million bushels with the increase in supplies. The sorghum season-average farm price is projected at $3.70 to $4.70 per bushel, down 75 cents on each end of the range. The barley farm price is projected at $4.60 to $5.60 per bushel, down 55 cents on each end of the range. The oats price is projected at $2.65 to $3.35 per bushel, down 45 cents on each end of the range. Global coarse grain production for 2008/09 is raised 7.6 million tons as higher production for EU- 27, Russia, Canada, and the United States more than offset a reduction for Brazil. EU-27 barley production is raised 1.6 million tons and corn production is raised 1.0 million tons. Barley production for Russia is raised 1.0 million tons and oats production is raised 0.4 million tons. Production for Canada is raised 0.3 million tons for barley and 0.2 million tons for oats in line with the latest official estimates. Corn production for Brazil is lowered 2.0 million tons on reduced area for the main summer (Southern Hemisphere) crop which is being planted. Large carryover supplies from the 2007/08 Brazil winter crop, as well as lower world corn prices and higher input costs, have reduced planting incentives for 2008/09. World coarse grain imports and exports for 2008/09 are both lowered this month. Corn imports are lowered for Canada with reduced corn feeding offset by increases in barley and wheat feeding with larger crops for both. EU-27 corn imports are reduced with higher coarse grain production and reduced feeding. Corn imports are also lowered for Mexico on lower expected feeding; however, sorghum imports are increased this month, partly offsetting the reduction in corn. Corn exports are lowered for Argentina as increased feeding is expected to reduce supplies available for export. Partly offsetting reductions in corn exports is an increase in EU-27 barley exports. Global corn feeding is raised 6.1 million tons this month with increases for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States only partly offset by lower corn feeding in Canada and Mexico. Global barley feeding is raised 2.0 million tons with increases for Canada, Russia, and the United States. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2008/09 are nearly unchanged this month as a projected 2.2-million-ton reduction in world corn stocks is more than offset by higher stocks for the other coarse grains. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2008/09 is forecast at 204.1 million cwt, 2.8 million below last month due entirely to a decrease in yield. Average yield is estimated at 6,982 pounds per acre, down 94 pounds from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.92 million acres. Longgrain production is forecast at 155.2 million cwt, down 2.1 million from last month; while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 48.9 million cwt, down 0.7 million. All rice exports are projected at 108 million cwt, down 2 million from a month earlier. Long-grain exports are lowered 1.5 million cwt to 85.0 million, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 0.5 million to 23.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 25.1 million cwt, a decrease of 0.8 million from last month. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $15.85 to $16.85 per cwt, up $0.10 per cwt on both ends of the range. The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, up $0.50 per cwt on each end of the range. The combined mediumand short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.50 to $18.50 per cwt, down $2.00 per cwt on each end. Projected global 2008/09 rice production and consumption are raised from a month ago, while trade and ending stocks are little changed. Production is projected at a record 433.2 million tons, 1.3 million tons above last month’s estimate, due mostly to increases for Bangladesh, Burma, Pakistan, and several African countries; which is partially offset by lower crops for Australia and the United States. Expected consumption levels are raised for a number of countries including Bangladesh, Burma, Pakistan, and several African countries. Global ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 80.5 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month, but up 2.9 million from the 2007/08 estimate. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 7.4 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month due to higher beginning stocks, reduced crush, and higher production. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 89.9 million tons, up 1.8 million from last month due to higher soybean, sunflowerseed, canola, and peanut production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.983 billion bushels, up 49 million from last month. Increased harvested area more than offsets a lower projected yield. Total soybean supplies are forecast up 111 million bushels with higher crop production and sharply higher beginning stocks. Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels to 1.76 billion based on weaker prospective domestic soybean meal demand. Soybean exports are raised 50 million bushels to 1.05 billion due to increased supplies and lower prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 85 million from last month. Soybean oil ending stocks are reduced for both 2007/08 and 2008/09 as lower domestic disappearance for food use only partly offsets reduced production. Prices for soybeans and soybean products for 2008/09 are projected sharply lower this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008/09 is projected at $9.60 to $11.10, down $2.00 on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $260 to $320 per short ton, down $70 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 44 to 48 cents per pound, down 8 cents on both ends of the range. These changes reflect the rapid commodity price declines that have occurred in the past month. Global oilseed production for 2008/09 is projected at 420.4 million tons, up 2.6 million tons from last month. Global soybean production is projected up with increases for the United States, Canada, and EU-27. Global rapeseed production is projected higher mainly on increases for Canada and EU-27. Production in Canada is projected at a record 10.9 million tons, up 0.5 million based on the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is projected lower as reduced prospects for the Argentina crop offset larger U.S. output. Lower prices and planting delays in Argentina due to dry weather have resulted in a reduction in projected planted area. Global cottonseed production is raised mainly due to higher output in China. Global oilseed stocks for 2008/09 are raised 4.6 million tons to 65.0 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with increases projected for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. SUGAR: Projected 2008/09 U.S. sugar supply is increased 151,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Lower carry-in stocks are more than offset by higher production. Lower carry-in stocks result mainly from lower 2007/08 imports, based on final quota entries for the year. Production for 2008/09 is increased 202,000 tons. Beet sugar production is raised 200,000 tons based on higher forecast 2008-crop sugarbeet production, and assuming a 15 percent recovery rate for sugar from sugarbeets. Ending stocks are raised 151,000 tons from last month, at 656,000 tons which are down 853,000 tons from last year. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2008 and 2009 are raised from last month. Beef production is raised slightly for 2008 as cow slaughter remains heavy. The beef production forecast for 2009 is raised as higher expected placements in late 2008 will likely translate into higher fed beef production next year. Pork production forecasts are raised for both 2008 and 2009. Although the recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers expect to reduce sows farrowing into early 2009, growth in pigs per litter was stronger than expected. In addition, 2009 hog weights are raised slightly from last month due to lower forecast feed prices. The broiler production forecast for 2008 is raised as broiler weights remain heavy. However, the 2009 forecast is unchanged. The turkey production forecast is raised fractionally for 2008 reflecting higher third quarter production data, but is unchanged for 2009. Beef exports are forecast higher for 2008 based on the current pace of exports, but recent weakness in shipments results in a lower forecast for pork exports. Beef and pork export forecasts are unchanged for 2009. Poultry export forecasts are unchanged for 2008 and 2009. Cattle price forecasts for both 2008 and 2009 are lowered slightly due to expected competition from other meats. Hog prices are reduced as production forecasts are higher. Broiler price forecasts are reduced slightly as demand for domestically consumed products remains soft. Turkey price forecasts are unchanged from last month. Egg price forecasts are lowered for 2008 and early 2009. Milk production forecasts for 2008 are unchanged as higher cow numbers are offset by lower milk per cow. Forecast milk production for 2009 is raised fractionally as cow numbers are forecast slightly higher. Dairy export forecasts are reduced, reflecting current slowing movement and weaker international demand. Import forecasts are also reduced from last month as cheese imports are expected to be weaker. Stocks are adjusted to reflect larger expected stocks of dairy products with notably larger stocks of nonfat dry milk (NDM). Small sales of NDM to the CCC are forecast for 2008, but no sales are forecast for 2009. Class price forecasts are lowered from last month. Weaker international demand for NDM is expected to result in sharply lower forecast NDM prices. Lower NDM prices more than offset higher forecast butter prices and push the Class IV price lower. Cheese prices are forecast lower as demand is softening and weaker Class IV prices are expected to encourage milk to flow into cheese vats in 2009. Thus, coupled with lower expected whey prices Class III price forecasts are reduced from last month. The all milk price is forecast lower this month, averaging $18.40 to $18.50 in 2008 and $16.50 to $17.40 in 2009. COTTON: The 2008/09 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include slightly lower production and sharply lower exports relative to last month, resulting in a 27percent increase in forecast ending stocks. U.S. production is reduced mainly in Louisiana and Mississippi. Domestic mill use is unchanged. The export forecast is lowered 1.5 million bales, due to a combination of higher foreign production and lower foreign consumption, which is shrinking world import demand. The forecast for the marketing year average farm price is lowered 7 cents per pound on the upper end and 6 cents on the lower end of the range, due to both weaker demand and to recent sharp declines in futures and cash prices. The 2008/09 world cotton supply and demand estimates show a 1.4 percent increase in world production and a 1.1 percent decrease in world consumption relative to last month. Production is raised in China, based on recent reports from official sources; production also is raised in India and Brazil. Forecasts of world consumption are reduced in several countries, as the crisis in world financial markets is projected to cut consumer spending and purchases of textiles. Consumption is lowered in China, Turkey, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Russia, and others. Higher production and lower consumption reduce the world trade forecast by 2.4 million bales, including 1.0 million bales in imports by China. World ending stocks are raised 6 percent from last month to 55.5 million bales, but still are reduced nearly 10 percent from the beginning level. FrontPage