J. P Morgan -Growth and inflation fears

					                                                                                                            Global Emerging Markets Equity
                                                                                                            Research
                                                                                                            18 March 2013




Growth and inflation fears
Downgrading China to underweight in EM and APxJ


 We are downgrading China to UW. The post stimulus policy                                                  Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
  environment is challenging with slowing growth and inflation fears.                                       Adrian Mowat
                                                                                                                              AC

                                                                                                            (852) 2800-8599
 The 2H12 stimulus inflated property prices. This, plus several years of                                   adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
  wage inflation, generates concern on core inflation. Based on recent                                      J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
  statements the PBoC Governor's prime focus is inflation. There are two
                                                                                                            Pedro Martins Junior
  risks the market is attempting to price; timing the end of the stimulus                                   (55-11) 4950-4121
  and are there adequate policy tools to control shadow banking.                                            pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com

                                                                                                            Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
 Economic risk today is arguably higher than in mid-2012. Back then, the
  market could look forward to a stimulus. A classic FAI stimulus                                           David Aserkoff, CFA
                                                                                                            (44-20) 7134-5887
  occurred in 2H12. This added to structural concerns. Growth momentum                                      david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com
  is now slowing with policy response constrained; a nasty combination.
                                                                                                            J.P. Morgan Securities plc

 Our sector teams are now bearish on the three largest sectors; banks,                                     Rajiv Batra
  telecom and energy. Today our financials team is recommending                                             (91-22) 6157-3568
                                                                                                            rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com
  Chinese banks as a short (see China Banks: Further concerns on policy
                                                                                                            J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
  risks to weigh on share performance, Lei et al, 18 March 2013).
                                                                                                            Sanaya Tavaria
 Our technical strategist, Sunil Garg, notes that “deeper pull backs are                                   (1-212) 622-5469
                                                                                                            sanaya.x.tavaria@jpmorgan.com
  likely (see HK/China Deep Dive, Asian Indices, Garg et al, 11 March
  2013).                                                                                                    J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

                                                                                                            Kevyn H Kadakia
 Our bearish view on large cap China does not extend to SMID caps.                                         (91-22) 6157-3250
  Globally capital is moving into equities. Investors are seeking attractive                                kevyn.h.kadakia@jpmorgan.com

  growth opportunities in non-government related companies. Our SMID-                                       J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
  cap head, Leon Chik’s, enthusiasm for his stocks is infectious and
  successful (see HK/ China SMID-Caps ideas, Snap, Crackle and Pop,
                                                                                                                    Overweight markets
  Chik et al, 12 March 2013).                                                                                    India, Indonesia, Thailand, the
                                                                                                             Philippines, Mexico, Peru and Turkey
 The risk to the downgrade is if loss of economic momentum was a CNY
  effect. SoEs are 75% of MSCI China; the result is that the market is more                                        Underweight markets
  sensitive to economic policy. We delayed downgrading China hoping                                         China, Korea, Taiwan, South Africa and
                                                                                                                          Colombia
  that announcements at the NPC would boost sentiment. The opposite
  happened. But Chinese equities are likely to remain very sensitive to
  policy. Our concerns on the key sectors of banks, energy and telecom can
  change if policies change.




See page 15 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.

                                                                                                                    www.morganmarkets.com
Adrian Mowat                        Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                     18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




                                    Inflation fears, policy constraints
The 2H12 stimulus inflated          Figure 1: Rising inflation –China CPI %oya
property prices. This, plus
                                        7.0
several years of wage inflation,
generates concern on core
inflation. Based on recent
                                        6.0
statements the PBoC Governor's
prime focus is inflation. J.P.
Morgan's economist forecast
higher CPI (see Figure 1). Note         5.0
that within food inflation pork
prices declined 3.1%oya in the
first two months of 2013. The           4.0
base effect for inflation is
tougher in 2H13. As is common
in most countries CPI can fail to
                                        3.0
capture the popular perception
of price increases.
There are two risks the market is       2.0
attempting to price; timing the
end of the stimulus and are there
adequate policy tools to control        1.0
shadow banking.                               10Q1                         11Q1                                 12Q1                            13Q1

                                    Source: J.P. Morgan economics




                                    Growth fears – post stimulus
PMIs peaked at just 50.6 in
November and December last          Figure 2: 3Q12 recovery strong but short-lived….China PMI and MSCI China performance relative
year. The PMI in February is just   to EM
50.1. Growth in industrial              56                                                                                                                        105
production dropped to 9.9%.                                                                PMI (LHS)            MSCI China relativ e EM (RHS)

Retail sales decelerated to
                                        55
12.3%oya in the first two months
                                                                                                                                                                  100
of 2013.
                                        54
Chinese equities
outperformance from September           53
                                                                                                                                                                  95
2012 was coincidental with the
recovery in PMIs. The                   52
underperformance is also
                                                                                                                                                                  90
coincidental with the softening         51
in PMIs.
                                        50
Not all data is soft. Investment                                                                                                                                  85
activity is picking up. Pig iron
                                        49
and cement production up
double digit in the first two
                                        48                                                                                                                        80
months on 2013. Investment in            Mar-10      Jun-10   Sep-10   Dec-10     Mar-11     Jun-11    Sep-11     Dec-11     Mar-12    Jun-12   Sep-12   Dec-12
real estate increased 23%.
                                    Source: Bloomberg, 14 March 2013.




2
Adrian Mowat                                       Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                    18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


The hard fact on rebalancing                       Figure 3: Deposits, loans and estimate of total social financing to GDP
towards consumption from                           %
investment is that consumption
growth has been high.                                    190%
Rebalancing will happen as                                                  Deposits         Loans         TSF
better capital allocation results                        180%
in less investment spending.
                                                         170%
The recent stimulus added to the
imbalance.                                               160%
Economic risk today is arguably                          150%
higher than mid 2012. Back then
the market could look forward to                         140%
a stimulus. A classic FAI
stimulus occurred in 2H12. This                          130%
added to structural concerns. In
                                                         120%
Figure 3 we estimate the total
social financing to GDP. This is                         110%
an estimate as the PBoC does
not publish the stock of total                           100%
social financing. Growth
                                                           90%
momentum is now slowing with
                                                                 99        00        01        02        03       04        05        06        07        08         09      10        11   12
policy response constrained; a
nasty combination.
                                                   Source: CEIC, PBoC, J.P. Morgan calculation
                                                   Note: The PBoC does not disclose the stock of total social financing (TSF). To calculate TSF we use the actual total loans outstanding
                                                   each month and add the cumulative net financing of non-loans. The chart is representative of growth




                                                   Valuations and revisions
Table 1: MSCI China key valuation metrics
                     Wt                     PE                       EPS Growth                     EPS CAGR         EPS CAGR              PB                  DY               ROE
                                     13E         14E              13E          14E                   (08-14)           div by              13E                 13E              13E
                      (%)             X           X               (%)          (%)                     (%)            STDEV                 X                  (%)               (%)
MSCI China          100.0            9.7         8.7              10.2         11.6                    13.4             1.1                1.4                 3.2              14.5
Con. Disc            5.1             13.1        11.1             25.8         17.5                    10.8             0.6                2.0                 1.8              15.6
          Autos      2.4             11.3        9.7              24.9         16.5                    9.7              0.2                1.8                 1.4              15.7
          Retail     2.1             16.3        13.5             36.3         20.7                    13.7             0.6                2.3                 1.9              14.3
Con. Staples         5.4             23.0        19.3             18.8         19.2                    7.3              0.3                3.4                 1.9              14.9
Energy               16.7            9.4         8.8              5.9          7.0                     9.6              0.5                1.3                 3.5              14.1
Financials           39.9            7.5         6.7              7.3          10.9                    16.6             1.6                1.2                 4.1              16.1
          Banks      25.3            6.3         5.7              2.4          9.2                     16.1             1.5                1.1                 5.1              17.3
  Real Estate        5.9             7.9         6.8              11.2         16.2                    17.3             1.1                1.1                 3.2              13.9
     Insurance       7.8             15.1        13.1             52.7         15.8                    21.5             0.5                2.0                 1.6              13.3
      Div. Finls     0.9             14.8        12.7             38.7         16.6                    6.3              0.0                1.2                 2.0               8.3
Healthcare           0.9             18.8        16.0             19.6         17.6                    18.0             1.2                1.9                 1.4              10.2
Industrials          6.2             11.5        9.5              19.4         21.2                    18.1             0.4                1.1                 2.6               9.5
IT                   6.8             22.0        16.7             36.2         31.1                    37.1             0.5                4.0                 0.9              18.3
Materials            4.3             10.4        9.1              39.3         14.4                    19.3             0.5                1.2                 2.2              11.5
Telecom              11.4            11.3        10.7             3.6          5.9                     3.9              1.1                1.5                 3.8              13.0
Utilities            3.4             14.0        12.3             21.2         14.1                    43.6             0.3                1.8                 2.3              13.1
Source: IBES, MSCI, 14 March 2013.




                                                                                                                                                                                        3
Adrian Mowat                      Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                   18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Weak performance reflects EPS     Figure 4: Sharp negative EPS revisions; 2012 -9%, 2013 –12%, 2014 -7% in the past year
downgrades                          103
                                                                                              2012             2013           2014


                                    101



                                     99



                                     97



                                     95



                                     93



                                     91



                                     89



                                     87
                                            Feb-12    Mar-12   Apr-12   May -12    Jun-12       Jul-12    Aug-12         Sep-12      Oct-12    Nov -12   Dec-12   Jan-13    Feb-13     Mar-13

                                  Source: IBES, 14 March 2013.


Valuations are cheap due to       Figure 5: De-rating from 2010 high – MSCI China 12m forward PE relative EM is 1SD cheap
higher policy risk and a change
                                      1.2
in sector composition. Note 75%                                                   12M Fw d PE                 Av g            '+1SD              '-1SD

of MSCI China is SoEs.



                                      1.1




                                      1.0




                                      0.9




                                      0.8
                                        Mar-10       Jun-10    Sep-10    Dec-10      Mar-11          Jun-11          Sep-11       Dec-11      Mar-12     Jun-12    Sep-12     Dec-12      Mar-13

                                  Source: IBES, 14 March 2013.


                                  . Note: Grey area denotes forecasts.




4
Adrian Mowat                                                Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                             18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Table 2: China activity data for February: Investment activity improves
                 Data points                            January 2013                                       February 2013                                       Seasonally adjusted      YTD
                                                    Absolute     %oya ,               Absolute          %oya,         %oya                    % M/M                (% 3M/3M)            %oya
                                                                 3mmva                                  3mmva
Consumption
Passenger vehicle sales (mn units)                      1.7             19.5            1.1              14.4                 (8.3)            (35.6)                                    19.5
Passenger vehicle sales, sa (mn units)                  1.5             19.1            1.3              12.1                                  (14.9)                    1.3             15.6
Retail Sales (Value, billion Yuan)                                                     1891              13.3                 12.3                                                       12.3

Industrial Activities
Commercial Vehicle sales (mn units)                     0.3             13.8            0.2              (1.1)            (31.4)               (21.4)                                    (5.4)
Commercial Vehicle sales, sa (mn units)                 0.4             14.6            0.3              (1.3)                                 (22.0)                    0.9             (5.3)
Steel production (mn tons)
                                   NBS, nsa            59.1             3.3            55.8               8.2                 3.3              (2.7)                                      2.2
Clinker Production, nsa (mn tons)                                                      79.0              (4.4)                                                                           (2.0)
Clinker Production, sa (mn tons)                                                       102.7             (4.0)                                                        (9.8)              (2.0)
Excavator sales volume (units)                         4996             (17)           6093              (38)                                                                           (35.6)
Residential Starts, sa (sqm mn)                                                        123.5             12.2                                                         (5.6)              17.5
Residential Sales, sa (sqm mn)                                                         103.5             34.5                                                         (2.6)              55.2
Residential Starts, nsa (sqm mn)                                                       87.2               8.8                 17.5                                                       17.5
Residential Sales, nsa (sqm mn)                                                        47.5              12.6                 55.2                                                       55.2
Industrial Production(Billion Yuan,1990)                                                809              10.1                  9.9                                                        9.9
Total China Power Demand (bn KWH)                      400.0            3.8                                                                                                               4.9
Total China Power generation (bn KWH)                                                  323.2             (3.9)            (12.7)                                                        (10.1)

Imports Volume : Commodities and Oil*
Iron Ore (Million, tons)                               65.5             7.8             56.4              2.4             (13.2)               (13.9)                                    (1.9)
Crude Petroleum Oil (mn tons)                          25.2             6.1             20.8              0.9             (12.1)               (17.4)                                    (2.4)
Refined Petroleum Products (mn tons)                   3.91             11.9            3.38              4.9             (13.8)               (13.6)                                     6.1
Steel Products (mn tons)                               1.10             19.6            0.90             (8.7)            (26.2)               (18.2)                                    (6.5)
Copper (mn tons)                                       0.35            (23.1)           0.30            (29.6)            (38.5)               (15.1)                                   (27.8)
Aluminium (mn tons)                                    0.07            (24.4)           0.05            (43.6)            (63.5)               (34.1)                                   (47.2)




Source: CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, CISA, PBOC, J.P. Morgan calculations.


Table 3: China PMI and monetary growth aggregates
Datapoint                                               YTD                Feb 13              Jan 13              Dec 12                    Sep 12              Jun 12              Mar 12
PMI- Manufacturing
NBS                                                                            50.1              50.4                  50.6                   49.8                50.2                53.1
HSBC-Markit                                                                    50.4              52.3                  51.5                   47.9                48.2                48.3
Monetary aggregates
M1 Money supply growth                                  12.4                    9.5              15.3               6.5                       7.3                  4.7                4.4
M2 Money supply growth                                  15.5                   15.2              15.9               13.8                      14.8                13.6                13.4
Social Financing                                        78.8                    3.0              160                27.6                     284.7                63.7                2.7
Loan growth                                             15.2                   15.0              15.4              14.96                      16.2                16.0                15.7
Deposit Growth                                          15.3                   14.6              16.0               13.3                      13.3                12.3                12.5
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Economics.


Table 4: Social financing components (%oya)
                                            February 13          January 13           4Q 2012             3Q 2012                 YTD                   2012              2011        2010
Total Social Financing                            3                  160                 33                  94                     79                    23               (8)          1
New Loan (RMB)                                  (13)                  45                (17)                 24                     17                    10               (6)        (17)
New Loan (Foreign Currency)                     118               179 (-15)*            305                  83                    678                    60               18         (48)
Entrusted Loan                                  262                   25                 86                   3                     71                   (1)               48          29
Trust Loans                                     248                  732                396               365 (-7)*                403                   534              (47)        (11)
Bank Acceptance Bill                         -184 (-28)*          581 (-21)*            543              154 (-344)*            397 (-50)*                2               (56)         407
Net Corporate Bond Financing                     (8)                 398                 31                 305                     83                    65               23         (11)
Non Fin Enterprise Equity                       (28)                 201                (62)                (19)                    32                  (43)              (24)         73
Source: CEIC , *For Not Meaningful %oya, we have shown absolute numbers. Please refer to table 4 on page 6 for absolute numbers of all components




                                                                                                                                                                                              5
Adrian Mowat                                                 Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                              18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




Figure 6: Chinese steel cement and clinker production
    45
                                                   Steel Production (3mmva, %oya)                                     Cement Production (3mmva, %oya)                                      Clinker Production (3mmva, %oya)
    40


    35


    30


    25


    20


    15


    10


    5


    0


    -5


 -10


 -15
   Jan-06                       Oct-06                      Jul-07                      Apr-08                      Jan-09                      Oct-09                       Jul-10                      May-11            Feb-12   Nov-12
Source: Bloomberg, National Bureau of Statistics for steel, Chinese Economic Information Network for cement, Digital cement for clinker production, February 2013. The data for clinker production is till October 2012.




6
Adrian Mowat                                              Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                           18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




Figure 7: China residential construction starts (advanced 12 months) vs. sales

       150               sqm mn
                                                                 Residential construction starts, 3mmva      Residential Sales, 3mmva



       130




       110




         90




         70




         50




         30
          Jan-06                                        Sep-07                                      Apr-09                      Dec-10   Jul-12   Feb-14

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan calculations, February 2013. Note: The numbers are seasonally adjusted.




                                                                                                                                                           7
Adrian Mowat                                Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                             18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




Figure 8: China passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles sales

    140
                                           Passenger Vehicle Sales (3mmva, %oya)               Commercial Vehicles sales (3mmva, %oya)

    120


    100


     80


     60


     40


     20


      0


    -20


    -40
      Mar 06                      Apr 07                         Jun 08               Aug 09                       Oct 10                Dec 11   Feb 13


Source: CEIC, February 2013.


8
Adrian Mowat                                                 Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                              18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




Figure 9: China M1 money supply, M2 money supply, total loan growth and total deposit growth

    45                                 M1 Money Supply (% oya)                           M2 Money supply (% oya)              Total loan growth (% oya)         Total Deposit growth (% oya)
                                Social Financing
    40                        Period        % oya
                             4Q 2011           2
                             1Q 2012          (7)
    35                       2Q 2012           9
                             3Q 2012         94
                             4Q 2012         33
    30                        Oct 12         63
                             Nov 12          19
                              Dec 12         28
    25                        Jan 13         160
                              Feb 13           3

    20


    15


    10


      5

      0
      Jan 05                            Mar 06                            May 07                               Jul 08            Sep 09                    Oct 10                   Dec 11             Feb 13
Source: PBOC, February 2013. Note: Chart shows growth in total loans and deposits of financial institutions.


Table 5: Social Financing Components
                                                           February 13                January 13                 4Q 2012        3Q 2012              YTD                 2012               2011            2010
Total Social Financing                                     1070 (1043)                2535 (975)                4030 (3023)   3954 (2039)         3605 (2019)       15760 (12829)      12829 (14019)   14019 (13910)
New Loan (RMB)                                              620 (711)                 1072 (738)                1480 (1792)   1865 (1503)         1692 (1449)        8200 (7472)        7472 (7945)     7945 (9594)
New Loan (Foreign Currency)                                  115 (53)                  179 (-15)                 382 (94)      258 (141)           294 (38)            916 (571)          571 (486)       486 (927)
Entrusted Loan                                               143 (39)                  206 (165)                 420 (226)     378 (367)           349 (204)         1280 (1296)         1296 (875)       875 (678)
Trust Loans                                                  182 (52)                  205 (25)                  589 (119)      365 (-7)           387 (77)           1290 (203)          203 (387)       387 (436)
Bank Acceptance Bill                                        -184 (-28)                 581 (-21)                 287 (45)      154 (-344)          397 (-50)         1050 (1027)        1027 (2335)      2335 (461)
Net Corporate Bond Financing                                143 (154)                  220 (44)                  690 (526)     733 (181)           363 (199)         2250 (1366)        1366 (1106)     1106 (1237)
Non Fin Enterprise Equity                                     17 (23)                    24 (8)                   33 (86)        68 (84)            41 (31)            251 (438)          438 (579)       579 (335)
Source: CEIC, All numbers are absolute in RMB billion; Numbers in brackets are one year ago.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                       9
Adrian Mowat                                 Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                              18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




Figure 10: China construction machinery growth
 190
                                   Excavator sales (3mmva, % oya)              Concrete Machinery sales (3mmva, %oya)   Bulldozer sales (3mmva, %oya)




 140




  90




  40




 -10




 -60
   Mar-07                           Apr-08                          Jun-09                        Aug-10                Oct-11                          Dec-12

Source: CEIC, CCMA, February 2013




10
 Adrian Mowat                                            Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
 (852) 2800-8599                                         18 March 2013
 adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com

                                                         Figure 11: China steel, property and cement stocks rally
                                                           270
                                                                                             Cement stock basket                  Property Developer stock basket               Steel stock basket
                                                           250

                                                           230
China steel, cement and
property stocks lost -12%, -6%
                                                           210
and -9% respectively in the past
one month. China property
                                                           190
developers, cement and steel
stocks are up 94%, 53% and 37%
                                                           170
respectively from their October
2011 lows.
                                                           150

                                                           130

                                                           110

                                                            90
                                                             Oct 11                              Jan 12                             Apr 12                          Aug 12                           Nov 12      Mar 13
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, 13 March 2013. JPHCHCEM Index, JPHCHPP1 Index and JPHCHSTL index are used for cement, property developer and steel stock baskets respectively


                                                         Figure 12: China railway stocks rally while infrastructure stocks remain steady
                                                            270

                                                            250
                                                                                          Infrastructure            Railways
                                                            230

                                                            210
Infrastructure and railway stocks
                                                            190
lost -8%and -12% in the past one
month. China infrastructure and
                                                            170
railway stocks rallied 73% and
112% respectively from October
                                                            150
2011 lows
                                                            130

                                                            110

                                                              90
                                                               Oct 11                              Jan 12                              May 12                          Aug 12                           Nov 12       Mar 13

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, 13 March 2013. JPHCHINF Index and JPHCHRL1 Index are used for China infrastructure and railway stocks respectively




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11
Adrian Mowat                Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599             18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




                            Table 6: China FAI exposed baskets performance (absolute, Local currency, %)
                                           Absolute performance                                                   1M                                3M                   YTD     6M    12M
                            European Luxury                                                                        6                                13                    12     28     19
                            Japan                                                                                  2                                34                    20     65     26
                            Europe                                                                                 1                                11                     7     17      9
                            USA                                                                                   (2)                                3                     0     (3)    (9)
                            China Cement                                                                          (5)                               (2)                   (2)    16     10
                            Australia                                                                             (7)                                0                    (4)    12     (3)
                            China Property                                                                        (8)                               (7)                   (8)    18     23
                            South Africa                                                                          (8)                               (1)                   (2)     1    (11)
                            China Steel                                                                           (9)                               (6)                   (8)    24    (13)
                            Brazil                                                                               (10)                              (13)                  (18)   (10)   (21)
                            China Railway                                                                        (11)                              (11)                  (14)    13     11
                            Source: MSCI, Datastream, J.P. Morgan calculations, 13 March 2013




                            Table 7: China FAI exposed baskets performance (relative, Local currency, %)
                                               Relative performance                                               1M                                3M                   YTD     6M    12M
                            European Luxury                                                                        3                                 5                     4     17      9
                            China Cement                                                                          (0)                               (1)                    1      3     11
                            Europe                                                                                (1)                                3                    (1)     6     (1)
                            China Property                                                                        (3)                               (6)                   (5)     5     23
                            USA                                                                                   (4)                               (6)                   (9)   (10)   (20)
                            China Steel                                                                           (5)                               (5)                   (5)    11    (12)
                            Japan                                                                                 (6)                                4                    (1)    25      4
                            China Railway                                                                         (6)                              (10)                  (10)    (1)    11
                            South Africa                                                                          (7)                               (3)                   (1)    (9)   (25)
                            Australia                                                                            (10)                              (11)                  (14)    (6)   (25)
                            Brazil                                                                               (10)                              (12)                  (16)    (7)   (11)
                            Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Datastream, J.P. Morgan calculations, 13 March 2013. Note: The performance is relative to the respective MSCI indices




12
Adrian Mowat                                           Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                        18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




APPENDIX: Discrepancies in Chinese datapoints
Table 8: China Datapoints description
       Datapoint                           Source                               Datapoint Description                               Issues reviewing the datapoint
Passenger vehicle sales,        National Bureau of           Passenger vehicles include: Sedan, SUV, Multipurpose            Yes. The auto sales numbers are revised.
Commercial Vehicle sales        Statistics, Bloomberg        vehicles and Minivans. "Basic cars" correspond to the           These revised numbers are however not
                                code:                        Cars under the former classification and the "Semi-cars"        released. J.P. Morgan's strategy team adjusts
                                CN.INPROD.PCAR.CNAI          formerly classified as 'Light Buses'. -"Mini cars"(=Mini van)   the numbers based on latest reported
                                Index for passenger          correspond to the 'Mini Buses' under the former                 numbers and official growth reported. For
                                vehicles,                    classification. Commercial vehicles include busses and          example February 2011 Passenger vehicle
                                CN.INPROD.PCAR.CNAI          trucks                                                          sales=February 2012 PV sales/(1+PV growth
                                Index for commercial                                                                         reported)
                                vehicles


Retail Sales                    National Bureau of           Retail Sales of consumer goods include:                         Yes. National Bureau of Statistics reports,
                                Statistics,                  1) Sales of wholesale and retail enterprises: consumer          Retail Sales growth as well as Nominal Retail
                                CEIC Code: CHBA,             goods sold to urban and rural households: commodities           sales numbers. The Nominal Retail sales
                                Bloomberg Code:              sold to foreigners, overseas Chinese and Chinese                growth is reported after adjusting the numbers
                                CNRSCONS Index.              compatriots from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan visiting           historically. These revised numbers however
                                Retail Sales growth. CEIC    in China; commodities sold to government agencies,              are not reported. J.P. Morgan's strategy team
                                Code: CHBAAA,                institutions, social organizations, military and armed police   adjusts these number based on latest nominal
                                Bloomberg Code:              units, and commodities sold to enterprises in the form of       sales value and growth numbers reported. For
                                CHRSCYOY Index               retail sales.                                                   example: February 2011 retail sales=February
                                                             2). Sales of staple food, cooked dishes, beverage, tobacco      2012 retail sales/(1+retail sales growth
                                                             and other articles by catering units                            reported)

                                                             3). Sales of books, newspapers, magazines, audio-visual
                                                             products and post products by publishing and post
                                                             departments to urban and rural households and to
                                                             enterprises, institutions, military and armed police units.
                                                             4). Sales of food, beverage, tobacco, garments, footwear,
                                                             headgear, articles for daily use, medicines, medical and
                                                             health articles, work of art, handicrafts, toys, funeral
                                                             articles and other articles by other service trades.


Steel production
                         NBS    National Bureau of           NBS data are considered to be more reliable. The data are       No Issues
                                Statistics,                  sourced from provincial and country level actual
                                Bloomberg Code:              production and aggregated up. The data are reported
                                CHMMSTEL Index               once a month


                         CISA   China Iron and Steel         The CISA estimate is calculated from production plans           No Issues
                                production                   submitted by member steel mills (77 in total). The data are
                                                             reported at higher frequency, thrice a month
                                                             .

Cement Production               National Bureau of            Bloomberg Code: CHMMCEMT Index
                                Statistics,


Residential Starts, sa          National Bureau of           Total construction starts data are available from 1996.         No Issues
                                Statistics,                  Residential construction starts is available monthly from
                                CEIC Code: CRKARRI           January 2009. We assume 85% of total construction starts
                                                             were residential construction starts before 2009. The data
                                                             are seasonally adjusted using the centered moving
                                                             average approach


Residential Sales, sa           National Bureau of           It corresponds to private residential floor space sold. It      No Issues
                                Statistics,                  does not include social housing. The seasonal adjustment
                                CEIC Code: CECJ,             is done using centered moving average approach
                                Bloomberg code:
                                CHRESORE Index



                                                                                                                                                                         13
Adrian Mowat                                         Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                      18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




Datapoint                       Source                     Datapoint Description                                              Issues reviewing the datapoint
Industrial Production(Billion   National Bureau of         Since 1998, the coverage of industrial statistics are: all         Yes. National Bureau of Statistics reports,
Yuan,1990)                      Statistics                 state-owned industrial enterprises and those non-state             Industrial production growth as well as real
                                                           industrial enterprises with revenue from principle business        industrial output numbers. The Industrial
                                                           over 5 million yuan, and non-state industrial enterprises          production growth is reported after adjusting
                                                           with revenue from principle business below 5 million yuan.         the numbers historically. These revised
                                                           Value-added of Industry refers to the final results of             numbers however are not reported. J.P.
                                                           industrial production of industrial enterprises in money           Morgan's economics team adjusts these
                                                           terms during the reference period. Value added of industry         numbers and uses the adjusted numbers.
                                                           by production approach is calculated as following: Value
                                                           added of industry = gross industrial output - industrial
                                                           intermediate input + value added tax This is calculated at
                                                           constant prices


                                                            .
M1 Money supply growth          People's bank of China,    M1 and quasi money.M1 includes M0 and demand                       PBOC reports the nominal numbers as well as
                                CEIC Code: CKSAABA,        deposits.M0 is money in circulation. As of October 2011,           the respective money supply growth numbers.
                                Bloomberg Code:            monetary aggregates include deposits of housing provident          The growth numbers provided by PBOC
                                CNMS1YOY Index             fund centers and non-depository financial institutions'            should be used. In order to compute the total
                                                           deposits with depository financial institutions.                   M1 supply, one should calculate the historic
                                                                                                                              numbers using the approach used for Retail
                                                                                                                              Sales.


M2 Money supply growth          People's bank of China,    M2 includes M1 and quasi money                                     PBOC reports the nominal numbers as well as
                                CEIC Code: CKSAACA,                                                                           the respective money supply growth numbers.
                                Bloomberg Code:                                                                               The growth numbers provided by PBOC
                                CNMS2YOY Index                                                                                should be used. In order to compute the total
                                                                                                                              M2 supply, one should adjust the historic
                                                                                                                              numbers using the approach used for Retail
                                                                                                                              Sales.

Total Loans growth              People's bank of China,    All loans of financial institutions, including short term loans,   Total loans of financial institutions growth
                                CEIC Code: CKSAB,          medium-long term loans, fiscal loan, foreign exchange loan         should be used. Total financial loans
                                Bloomberg Code:            and other loans                                                    outstanding should be adjusted historically
                                CNLNTTLY Index                                                                                using the approach similar for adjustment of
                                                                                                                              retail sales.


Total Deposits growth           People's bank of China,    Total deposits to financial institutions                           Bloomberg reports a series for total yuan
                                CEIC Code: CKAAAB,                                                                            deposits (CHBDTTL Index). We recommend
                                                                                                                              investors to use the total deposits growth rate
                                                                                                                              obtained from CEIC rather than calculate the
                                                                                                                              numbers from the series.
Source: J.P. Morgan




14
Adrian Mowat                                     Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                  18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




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J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 1, 2013
                                                           Overweight    Neutral        Underweight
                                                           (buy)         (hold)         (sell)
 J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage               44%           44%            12%
    IB clients*                                            53%           46%            34%
 JPMS Equity Research Coverage                             42%           49%            9%
    IB clients*                                            71%           62%            51%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.
For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table
above.


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                                                                                                                                                              15
Adrian Mowat                                       Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                    18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




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16
Adrian Mowat                                     Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                  18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




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"Other Disclosures" last revised February 7, 2013.
Copyright 2013 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P




                                                                                                                                                             17
Adrian Mowat                          Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                       18 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Strategy Team
 Chief Equity Strategists
 Adrian Mowat                 Asia and Emerging Markets                     (852) 2800 8599      adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
 Pedro Martins Junior         LatAm                                         (55-11) 4950 4121    pedro.martinsjunior@jpmorgan.com
 David Aserkoff               CEEMEA                                        (44-20) 7134-5887    david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com
    Frontier Markets
 Aditya Srinath               ASEAN                                         (66-21) 5291 8573    sriyan.pietersz@jpmorgan.com
 Christian Kern               MENA                                          (971) 4428 1789      christian.a.kern@jpmorgan.com
 Diego Celedon                Southern cone and Andean                      (562) 425 5245       diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com
    Developed Markets
 Thomas J Lee                 US                                            (1) 212 622 6505     thomas.lee@jpmorgan.com
 Mislav Matejka               Europe                                        (44-20) 7325 5242    mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com
 Jesper J Koll                Japan Equity Strategy                         (81-3) 6736 8600     jesper.j.koll@jpmorgan.com
 Country Strategists
 Emy Shayo                    Brazil                                         (55-11) 3048 6684   emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com
 Bharat Iyer                  India                                         (91-22) 6157 3600    bharat.x.iyer@jpmorgan.com
 Aditya Srinath               Indonesia                                     (62-21) 5291 8573    aditya.s.srinath@jpmchase.com
 Scott Seo                    Korea                                         (82-2) 758 5759      scott.seo@jpmorgan.com
 Hoy Kit Mak                  Malaysia                                      (60-3) 2270 4728     hoykit.mak@jpmorgan.com
 Nur Cristiani                Mexico                                        (5255) 5540 9374     nur.cristiani@jpmchase.com
 Gilbert Lopez                Philippines                                   (63-2) 878-1188      lopez.y.gilbert@jpmorgan.com
 Alex Kantarovich             Russia                                        (7-495) 967 3172     alex.kantarovich@jpmorgan.com
 Deanne Gordon                South Africa                                  (27-21) 712 0875     deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
 Anne Jirajariyavech          Thailand                                      (66-2) 684 2684      anne.x.jirajariyavech@jpmorgan.com
 Nick Lai                     Taiwan                                        (886-2) 27259864     nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com
 Economic & Policy Research
 Joyce Chang                  Global Head, Emerging Markets Research        (1-212) 834 4203     joyce.chang@Jjpmorgan.com
 David Fernandez              Emerging Asia                                 (65) 6882 2461       david.g.fernandez@jpmorgan.com
 Luis Oganes                  Regional Head, Latin America                  (1-212) 834-4326     luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com
 Grace Ng                     Taiwan                                        (852) 2800 7002      grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com
 Haibin Zhu                   China                                         (852) 2800 7039      haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com
 Jiwon Lim                    Korea                                         (82-2) 758 5509      jiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.com
 Jahangir Aziz                India                                         (9122) 6157 3385     jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.com
 Vladimir Werning             Argentina                                     (1-212) 834 4144     vladimir.werning@jpmorgan.com
 Fabio Akira                  Brazil                                        (55-11) 3048 3634    fabio.akira@jpmorgan.com
 Gabriel Lozano               Mexico                                        (52-55)-5540-9558    gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com
 Michael Marrese              Regional Head, Emerging Europe                (44-20) 7777 4627    michael.marrese@jpmorgan.com
 Sonja Keller                 South Africa                                  (27-11) 507 0376     sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com
 Yarkin Cebeci                Turkey                                        (90-212) 326 5890    yarkin.cebeci@jpmorgan.com
 Anatoliy A Shal              Russia                                        (7-495) 937-7321     anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com
 Nora Szentivanyi             Hungary, Poland                               (44-20) 7777 3981    nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com
 Nicolaie Alexandru           Czech Republic                                (44-20) 7742 2466    nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com




18

				
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Description: Downgrading China to underweight in EM and APxJ