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					                                                                                                                                                                                                          Emerging Markets Equity
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                          15 March 2013




Herd Instinct
Key Emerging Markets and Developed Asia Fund Flow Weekly, 7 - 13 Mar
2013
During the week to 13 Mar, there were net redemptions of US$469mn            Table 1: Market data & net foreign investment, 7 - 13 Mar 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Emerging Market Equity Strategy
in EM. YTD the flows were US$32.1billion (62.2% of total EM flows                                          Index       Net        MTD       2013                                   2012           12M
                                                                                                            Chg      Flows                  YTD                                    Agg.           Avg                       AC
in 2012). Despite net redemptions in EM overall, mutual funds saw                                                                                                                                         Adrian Mowat
                                                                                                            (%)      US$M        US$M      US$M                                    US$M           (x).
another $500m in net inflows. The net flows by mandate were:                 Stock Exchange Investors' Trading Data
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (852) 2800-8599
                                                                             Japan (1 wk lag)                3.8      9864       14018     32611                                   46520           3.0    adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
    Total EM equity funds US$469million redemptions.                        South Africa                    0.3      -209          60      998                                     -365           -1.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                          J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
                                                                             Brazil**                        3.1       192         487      3990                                    1441            0.5
     (US$1billion redemptions in ETF-s)                                      Taiwan                          0.5       162         295      1833                                    4475            0.3   Pedro Martins Junior
    GEMS equity funds US$177million redemptions.                            Korea                          -1.6      -316         175      -134                                   14839           -0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (55-11) 4950-4121
    Asia ex-Japan equity funds US$84million redemptions.                    India                           0.4       764        1127      9523                                   25089            1.3
                                                                             Thailand                        0.5        65         206      124                                     2503            0.4   pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com
    EMEA equity funds US$80million redemptions.                             Indonesia                      -0.2         1         304      2052                                    1631            0.0
    LatAm equity funds US$50million redemptions.                            Philippines                    -0.7       281         321      1135                                    2318            2.9   Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
    US equity funds US$11.1billion subscriptions.                           Monthly Tracking of Cross Border Funds (January 2013)*
                                                                                                                                                                                                          David Aserkoff, CFA
                                                                             Australia                       5.0        70            -      70                                    -4672           0.7
                                                                             Singapore                       2.7       242            -     242                                    -1486           2.1    (44-20) 7134-5887
Inflows into all emerging markets, except Korea and South                    Hong Kong                       5.9       383            -     383                                     1794            0.7   david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com
Africa:                                                                      China                           4.2      2047            -     2047                                    -808           1.4
                                                                             Malaysia                       -3.3       480            -     480                                      308           3.1    J.P. Morgan Securities plc
    India US$764million inflows                                             Mexico                          3.2        70            -       70                                    1307            0.2
                                                                             Russia                          4.7       688            -     688                                      787           2.0    Rajiv Batra
    Philippines US$281million inflows
                                                                             Chile                           5.7       -93            -      -93                                     803           -1.3   (91-22) 6157-3568
    Korea US$316million outflows                                            Poland                         -3.0       240            -     240                                      -88           2.6    rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com
    South Africa: US$209million outflows                                    Turkey                          0.2       278            -     278                                      333           1.6
                                                                             Regional & US Mutual Fund Flows                                                                                              J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
                                                                             Total EM Equity****            -1.0      -469          -     32106                                   51597            -0.5
For countries that do not publish official foreign transactions in                                          -1.0      -177         -      23101                                   46432            -0.6   Sanaya Tavaria
                                                                             Global EM Equity*
their equity markets, we use the monthly data from EPFR Global               LatAm Equity*                  -0.3       -50         -       -360                                     -240           -0.3   (1-212) 622-5469
(they cover 12,000 international, EM and US funds with total net             EMEA Equity*                   -0.6       -80         -       -936                                    -1534           -0.6   sanaya.x.tavaria@jpmorgan.com
assets greater than US$ 6 trillion). During the month of January, funds      Asia ex-Japan Equity*          -1.1       -84         -      10841                                     8590           -0.2
                                                                             BRIC Equity*                   -1.1       -77         -       -541                                    -1651           -1.5   J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
were net sellers in Chile and were net buyers in Australia, Singapore,       Japan Equity Funds              0.3      1953         -       6981                                    7627             3.8
Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Poland and Turkey.               Developed Europe*               0.3      -211          -      4189                                   -13740           -0.3   Saharsh Kumar
                                                                             International Equity           -0.1      2851         -      29073                                   16395             2.4   (91-22) 6157-3271
Please see page 13 for global portfolio weightings and household             US Equity***                    0.8     11089          -     34781                                    -9912            2.1   saharsh.kumar@jpmorgan.com
                                                                           Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, I:Net, MKK, MSCI, Datastream. *EPFR Global data. **Data for Brazil is from 6 –12 Mar
equity weights. Also see page 14 for the consensus overweight and          2013. Monthly Tracking flows of Cross Border Funds- data is till November 2012. BRIC Funds separated from EM Funds             J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
underweight markets for January 2013.                                      from 11 May 07. The final column is designed to show the scale of net subscriptions or redemptions - the calculation is if
                                                                           net inflows (This week’s net subscription/(average of weeks with net subscriptions)( or if net redemptions /(This week’s net
                                                                           redemptions/(average of weeks with net redemptions)). ****Total EM Equity includes GEMs, LatAm, EMEA, Asia ex Japan
                                                                           and BRIC equity funds.




See page 15 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect
the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.


                                                                                                                                     www.morganmarkets.com
Adrian Mowat                                           Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                        15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Emerging Markets – Net outflows during the week
Figure 1: Global Emerging Markets Funds, Weekly net flows                                                             Figure 2: Global Emerging Markets Funds, monthly cumulative net flows
US$, mils                                                                                                     Index   US$, bils

    6,000                                                                                                      1400
                                                                                                                         168
    4,500
                                                                                                               1100      138
    3,000
                                                                                                                         108
    1,500                                                                                                      800
                                                                                                                           78
         0
                                                                                                               500         48
    (1,500)
    (3,000)                                                                                                    200         18
          Jan-02                Jul-04                Jan-07                 Jul-09            Jan-12
                                                                                                  13-Mar-13               (12)
                                                                                                                             Jan-01          Oct-02   Jul-04   Apr-06    Jan-08     Oct-09    Jul-11    Mar-13
                              Weekly Net Flows (L)                 MSCI EMF Index (R)

Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global. BRIC Funds separated from EM funds from 11 May 07.                             Source: EPFR Global




Asia ex Japan – Marginal outflow during the week
Figure 3: Asia Ex Japan Funds, Weekly net flows                                                                       Figure 4: Asia Ex Japan Funds, monthly cumulative net flows
US$, mils                                                                                                     Index   US$, bils

    3,200                                                                                                      700       76
                                                                                                               590       63
    1,600
                                                                                                               480       50
         0
                                                                                                                         37
                                                                                                               370
    (1,600)                                                                                                              24
                                                                                                               260
                                                                                                                         11
    (3,200)                                                                                                    150
          Jan 02                Jul 04                Jan 07                 Jul 09            Jan 12
                                                                                                13-Mar-13                (2)
                                                                                                                           Jan-01            Oct-02   Jul-04   Apr-06    Jan-08      Oct-09    Jul-11    Mar-13

                            Weekly Net Flows (L)                MSCI Asia ex Japan Index (R)
                                                                                                                      Source: EPFR Global.
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.




2
Adrian Mowat                                                Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                             15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Latin America – Marginal outflows during the week
Figure 5: Latin America Funds, Weekly net flows                                                                                              Figure 6: Latin America Funds, monthly cumulative net flows
US$, mils                                                                                                                     Index          US$, bils

  1,200                                                                                                                         5200
                                                                                                                                                24
     800                                                                                                                                        21
                                                                                                                                4000
                                                                                                                                                18
     400                                                                                                                                        15
                                                                                                                                2800
                                                                                                                                                12
        0
                                                                                                                                                 9
                                                                                                                                1600
   (400)                                                                                                                                         6
                                                                                                                                                 3
   (800)                                                                                                                        400             -
       Jan-02                     Jul-04                  Jan-07                    Jul-09                   Jan-12
                                                                                                                13-Mar-13                       (3)
                                                                                                                                                  Jan-01            Oct-02   Jul-04   Apr-06      Jan-08   Oct-09   Jul-11   Mar-13
                                             Weekly Net Flows (L)                    MSCI LatAm Index (R)
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global                                                                                                        Source: EPFR Global
Please note: the flows include liquidation of a closed-ended fund which resulted in an outflow of $994mn for the week ended June 14, 2006.




EMEA – Net outflows during the week
Figure 7: EMEA Funds Weekly net flows                                                                                                        Figure 8: EMEA Funds, monthly cumulative net flows
US$, mils                                                                                                                     Index          US$, bils

      900                                                                                                                         500
                                                                                                                                                17
      500                                                                                                                         425
                                                                                                                                                15
      100                                                                                                                         350           12
    (300)                                                                                                                         275             9
    (700)                                                                                                                         200             7
  (1,100)                                                                                                                         125             4
  (1,500)                                                                                                                         50              2
        Jan-02                     Jul-04                   Jan-07                   Jul-09                    13-Mar-13
                                                                                                              Jan-12                             (1)
                                                                                                                                                   Jan-01           Oct-02   Jul-04   Apr-06      Jan-08   Oct-09   Jul-11   Mar-13
                                   Weekly Net Flows (L)                    MSCI EMEA Index (R)
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                                                       Source: EPFR Global.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3
Adrian Mowat                                          Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                       15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


International – Strong inflows during the week
Figure 9: International Funds, Weekly net inflows                                                                            Figure 10: International Funds, monthly cumulative net flows
US$, mils                                                                                                        Index       US$, bils

    5,000                                                                                                              380
                                                                                                                                149
    3,000                                                                                                                       125
                                                                                                                       310
                                                                                                                                101
    1,000
                                                                                                                       240        77
    (1,000)                                                                                                                       53
                                                                                                                       170        29
    (3,000)
                                                                                                                                   5
    (5,000)                                                                                                            100
          Jan-02                Jul-04               Jan-07                 Jul-09                 Jan-12
                                                                                                     13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                                 (19)
                                                                                                                                    Jan-01          Oct-02     Jul-04        Apr-06       Jan-08     Oct-09    Jul-11   Mar-13
                             Weekly Net Flows (L)              MSCI AC World ex US Index (R)

Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                                       Source: EPFR Global.



Australia – Net inflows in January
Figure 11: Monthly Net foreign investment into Australian equities by funds monitored by EPFR                                Figure 12: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Australian equities by funds monitored by
Global                                                                                                                       EPFR Global
US$, mils                                                                                                         Index      US$, mils

       1,200                                                                                                     1,400          2,300
        800                                                                                                                     1,300
        400                                                                                                                       300
                                                                                                                 1,100
              0                                                                                                                   (700)
       (400)                                                                                                                    (1,700)
       (800)                                                                                                                    (2,700)
                                                                                                                 800
      (1,200)                                                                                                                   (3,700)
      (1,600)                                                                                                                   (4,700)
      (2,000)                                                                                                    500            (5,700)
           Nov-00          Dec-02           Jan-05         Mar-07           May-09             Jun-11   Jan-13                         Mar-00         May-02        Jul-04            Aug-06       Oct-08     Dec-10    Jan-13
                                     Foreigners' Net Buy (L)              MSCI Australia (R)
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                                       Source:EPFR Global.




4
Adrian Mowat                                            Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                         15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Hong Kong – Net inflows in January
Figure 13: Monthly Net foreign investment into Hong Kong equities by funds monitored by EPFR                               Figure 14: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Hong Kong equities by funds monitored by
Global                                                                                                                     EPFR Global
US$, mils                                                                                                       Index      US$, mils

      1,500                                                                                                     15,000         2,000
                                                                                                                               1,000
      1,000
                                                                                                                12,500             -
        500                                                                                                                   (1,000)
            0                                                                                                   10,000        (2,000)
                                                                                                                              (3,000)
       (500)                                                                                                    7,500         (4,000)
     (1,000)                                                                                                                  (5,000)
                                                                                                                5,000
     (1,500)                                                                                                                  (6,000)
                                                                                                                              (7,000)
     (2,000)                                                                                                    2,500
           Nov-00       Jun-02       Feb-04         Oct-05      May-07       Jan-09    Sep-10      May-12                     (8,000)
                                                                                                    Jan-13
                                                                                                                                    Mar-00        May-02     Jul-04       Aug-06        Oct-08        Dec-10          Jan-13
                                    Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                 MSCI Hong Kong (R)
Source:MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global, ICBC was listed on 27 October 2006.                                                  Source: EPFR Global.




Singapore – Strong inflows in January
Figure 15: Monthly Net foreign investment into Singapore equities by funds monitored by EPFR                               Figure 16: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Singapore equities by funds monitored by
Global                                                                                                                     EPFR Global
US$, mils                                                                                                          Index   US$, mils

       600                                                                                                         500
                                                                                                                               1,800
       400
                                                                                                                               1,000
       200                                                                                                         400
         0                                                                                                                       200
      (200)                                                                                                        300          (600)
      (400)                                                                                                                   (1,400)
      (600)                                                                                                        200        (2,200)
      (800)                                                                                                                   (3,000)
    (1,000)                                                                                                        100        (3,800)
         Nov-00           Oct-02           Sep-04            Aug-06         Jul-08      Jun-10        May-12
                                                                                                       Jan-13                 (4,600)
                                                                                                                                    Mar-00        May-02     Jul-04       Aug-06        Oct-08       Dec-10           Jan-13
                                        Foreigners' Net Buy (L)               MSCI Singapore (R)

Source:MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                                      Source: EPFR Global.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
Adrian Mowat                                               Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                            15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


South Africa – Net outflow during the week
Figure 17: Weekly Net foreign investment into the South Africa stock market                                                        Figure 18: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the South Africa stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                               Index      US$ bils

    1,400                                                                                                                  1,100     75
                                                                                                                           1,000
    1,000
                                                                                                                           900       60
      600                                                                                                                  800
                                                                                                                           700       45
      200
                                                                                                                           600
     (200)                                                                                                                 500       30
                                                                                                                           400
     (600)
                                                                                                                           300
                                                                                                                                     15
    (1,000)                                                                                                                200
         Dec-01                  Jun-04                   Dec-06                  Jun-09                    13-Mar-13
                                                                                                         Dec-11
                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                      Feb-97              Oct-99           Jun-02     Feb-05   Nov-07         Jul-10         Mar-13
                                     Foreigners' Net Buy (L)            MSCI South Africa (R)
Source: I:Net, Datastream, Johannesburg Stock Exchange.                                                                            Source: Datastream, Johannesburg Stock Exchange.




Russia – Strong inflows in January
Figure 19: Monthly Net foreign investment into Russian equities by funds monitored by EPFR Global                                  Figure 20: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment the Russian equities by funds monitored by
US$, mils                                                                                                          Index           EPFR Global
                                                                                                                                   US$ bils

      1,700                                                                                                        1,600               16
                                                                                                                                       14
                                                                                                                   1,300
        900                                                                                                                            12
                                                                                                                   1,000               10
        100
                                                                                                                   700                    8

       (700)                                                                                                                              6
                                                                                                                   400
                                                                                                                                          4
     (1,500)                                                                                                       100                    2
          Nov-00        Jul-02       Mar-04         Dec-05          Aug-07      May-09          Jan-11    Jan 13
                                                                                                          Sep-12                       -
                                                                                                                                           Mar-00          May-02            Jul-04   Aug-06    Oct-08        Dec-10         Jan-13
                                          Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                MSCI Russia (R)

Source:MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                                              Source: EPFR Global.




6
Adrian Mowat                                                  Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                               15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Brazil – Marginal inflows from 6– 12 Mar 2013
Figure 21: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Brazilian stock market                                                             Figure 22: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Brazilian stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                                  Index     US$, bils

   1,500                                                                                                                   320,000      12
   1,000                                                                                                                   280,000           9
      500                                                                                                                  240,000           6
        0                                                                                                                  200,000           3
    (500)                                                                                                                  160,000       -
  (1,000)                                                                                                                  120,000       (3)
  (1,500)                                                                                                                  80,000        (6)
  (2,000)                                                                                                                  40,000        (9)
        Jan-01           Nov-02           Aug-04          Jun-06         Mar-08           Dec-09             12-Mar-13
                                                                                                             Oct-11
                                                                                                                                        (12)
                                                                                                                                           Jul-98          Aug-00        Oct-02          Nov-04    Dec-06       Jan-09     Feb-11       Mar-13
                                           Foreigners' Net Buy                       MSCI Brazil (R)
Source:Datastream, Bloomberg, Bovespa. Note: Starting 1 Dec, 2009, we take weekly net flows
                                                                                                                                     Source: Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Bovespa
into the Brazil stock market. Prior to that, we took the 10 day net foreign investment in Brazil.




Mexico – Marginal inflows in January
Figure 23: Monthly Net foreign investment into Mexican equities by funds monitored by EPFR Global Figure 24: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Mexican equities by funds monitored by
US$, mils                                                                                Index    EPFR Global
                                                                                                                                     US$ bils
      1,000                                                                                                                45,000

        700                                                                                                                40,000          2
        400                                                                                                                35,000         -
        100                                                                                                                30,000        (2)
                                                                                                                           25,000        (4)
       (200)
                                                                                                                                         (6)
       (500)                                                                                                               20,000
                                                                                                                                         (8)
       (800)                                                                                                               15,000       (10)
     (1,100)                                                                                                               10,000       (12)
     (1,400)                                                                                                               5,000        (14)
          Nov-00                 Apr-03                Oct-05               Mar-08                  Sep-10         Jan-13
                                                                                                                     Feb-13             (16)
                                                                                                                                             Mar-00         May-02              Jul-04        Aug-06        Oct-08       Dec-10     Jan-13
                                          Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                     MSCI Mexico (R)
                                                                                                                                     Source:EPFR Global.
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
Adrian Mowat                                                           Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                                        15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Taiwan – Marginal inflows during the week
Figure 25: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Taiwan stock market                                                                      Figure 26: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Taiwan stock market
US$, bils                                                                                                                        Index     US$, bils
                                                                                                                                              110
      4                                                                                                                              400
      3                                                                                                                                        94
      2                                                                                                                              350
                                                                                                                                               78
      1
                                                                                                                                     300       62
      0
     (1)                                                                                                                                       46
                                                                                                                                     250
     (2)
     (3)                                                                                                                                       30
                                                                                                                                     200
     (4)                                                                                                                                       14
     (5)                                                                                                                             150
       Jan-02                 Jul-04                                 Jan-07                 Jul-09                 Jan-12                      (2)
                                                                                                                     13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                                                 Feb-97              Oct-99    Jun-02     Feb-05        Nov-07         Jul-10   Mar-13
                                           Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                  MSCI Taiwan (R)


                                                                                                                                           Source: Bloomberg, TWSE & OTC.
Source: Bloomberg, DataStream, TWSE & OTC. Please note the flow numbers for Taiwan has been adjusted to exclude a US$ 3.6 billion
cross trade for TSMC between Philips Taiwan (selling) and Philips Netherlands (buying).




Korea – Net outflows during the week
Figure 27: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Korea stock market                                                                       Figure 28: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Korea stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                                         Index    US$, bils
    3,000                                                                                                                           700
                                                                                                                                              60
    2,000                                                                                                                           600
                                                                                                                                              45
    1,000                                                                                                                           500
                                                                                                                                              30
         0                                                                                                                          400
                                                                                                                                              15
    (1,000)                                                                                                                         300
                                                                                                                                               0
    (2,000)                                                                                                                         200
                                                                                                                                             -15
    (3,000)                                                                                                                         100
          Jan-02                 Jul-04                               Jan-07                 Jul-09                Jan-12
                                                                                                                      13-Mar-13              -30
                                                                                                                                               Feb-97            Oct-99       Jun-02     Feb-05        Nov-07         Jul-10    Mar-13
                                                  Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                         MSCI Korea (R)

                                                                                                                                           Source: Bloomberg, KSE.
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, KSE.




8
Adrian Mowat                                             Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                          15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


China – Strong inflows in January
Figure 29: Monthly Net foreign investment into Chinese equities by funds monitored by EPFR Global                                 Figure 30: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Chinese equities by funds monitored by
US$, mils                                                                                                                Index    EPFR Global
                                                                                                                                  US$, bils:
    4,000                                                                                                                  110
                                                                                                                           100        35
    3,000
                                                                                                                           90
    2,000                                                                                                                             30
                                                                                                                           80
    1,000                                                                                                                  70         25
                                                                                                                           60
         0                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                                           50
   (1,000)                                                                                                                 40         15
                                                                                                                           30         10
   (2,000)
                                                                                                                           20
   (3,000)                                                                                                                 10          5
        Nov-00          Jul-02        Mar-04          Dec-05        Aug-07          May-09        Jan-11         Jan-13
                                                                                                                Sep-12                -
                                          Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                  MSCI China (R)                                         Mar-00          May-02        Jul-04            Aug-06        Oct-08     Dec-10       Jan-13

SoSource: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global, ICBC was listed on 27 October 2006.                                                      Source: EPFR Global.




India – Strong inflows during the week
Figure 30: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Indian stock market                                                              Figure 31: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Indian stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                             Index        US$, bils

   2,400                                                                                                               920
                                                                                                                                      132
   1,800                                                                                                               820
                                                                                                                                      120
   1,200                                                                                                               720            108
                                                                                                                       620             96
     600
                                                                                                                       520             84
        0                                                                                                                              72
                                                                                                                       420
    (600)                                                                                                                              60
                                                                                                                       320
                                                                                                                                       48
  (1,200)                                                                                                              220             36
  (1,800)                                                                                                              120             24
        Jan-02                   Jul-04               Jan-07                   Jul-09                   13-Mar-13
                                                                                                     Jan-12                            12
                                                                                                                                       -
                                                                                                                                         Jan-99          Jan-01    Jan-03        Feb-05        Feb-07     Mar-09   Mar-11   Mar-13
                                   Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                     MSCI India (R)
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, BSE & NSE
                                                                                                                                   Source: Bloomberg, BSE & NSE.
The y-axis range has been scaled down to exclude ONGC IPO flows on May 31, 2004, TCS IPO flows included for week ended Aug. 25,
Infosys deal value impact adjusted for week ended Dec 6, DLF IPO and ICICI public issue flows for week ended July 04.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            9
Adrian Mowat                                            Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                         15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Thailand – Marginal inflows during the week
Figure 32: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Thailand stock market                                                     Figure 33: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Thailand stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                        Index      US$, bils

     750                                                                                                             600       9
                                                                                                                     550
     500                                                                                                             500       7
     250                                                                                                             450
                                                                                                                     400
      0                                                                                                              350       5
                                                                                                                     300
  (250)                                                                                                              250       2
  (500)                                                                                                              200
                                                                                                                     150
                                                                                                                               0
  (750)                                                                                                              100
      Jan-02                  Jul-04                  Jan-07                    Jul-09                 13-Mar-13
                                                                                                   Jan-12
                                                                                                                              -2
                                                                                                                               Dec-97            Feb-00        Apr-02        Jun-04      Sep-06     Nov-08    Jan-11   Mar-13
                                           Foreigners' Net Buy (L)            MSCI Thailand (R)
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, TSE.                                                                                         Source: Bloomberg, TSE.




Malaysia – Strong inflows in January
Figure 34: Monthly Net foreign investment into Malaysian equities by funds monitored by EPFR                                Figure 35: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Malaysian equities by funds monitored by
Global                                                                                                                      EPFR Global
US$, mils                                                                                                           Index   US$, mils

                                                                                                                                3,750
       1,000                                                                                                       600

           550                                                                                                                  2,500
                                                                                                                   500
           100                                                                                                                  1,250
                                                                                                                   400
       (350)                                                                                                                        -

                                                                                                                   300         (1,250)
       (800)

      (1,250)                                                                                                      200         (2,500)
           Nov-00       Jul-02          Apr-04      Dec-05           Sep-07      May-09       Feb-11    Oct-12
                                                                                                        Jan-13                          Mar-00        May-02            Jul-04        Aug-06      Oct-08     Dec-10    Jan-13
                                        Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                MSCI Malaysia (R)
                                                                                                                            Source: EPFR Global.
Source:MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.




10
Adrian Mowat                                                    Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                                 15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


Indonesia –Marginal inflows during the week
Figure 36: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Indonesia stock market                                                                            Figure 37: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Indonesia stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                                            Index          US$, bils

   900                                                                                                                               6,600            28
   750                                                                                                                               5,800
   600                                                                                                                                                24
                                                                                                                                     5,000
   450                                                                                                                                                20
   300                                                                                                                               4,200
   150                                                                                                                               3,400            16
     0                                                                                                                               2,600            12
  (150)
                                                                                                                                     1,800             8
  (300)
  (450)                                                                                                                              1,000
                                                                                                                                                       4
  (600)                                                                                                                              200
      Jan-02                      Jul-04                    Jan-07                     Jul-09                      13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                Jan-12                                 0
                                                                                                                                                       Feb-97                 Oct-99     Jun-02       Feb-05            Nov-07        Jul-10           Mar-13

                                          Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                        MSCI Indonesia (R)                                         Source: Bloomberg, JSE.

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, JSE. The y-axis range has been scaled down to exclude block transactions, primarily due to Astra in 2003.
Large outflow on 18th May 2005 includes HM Sampoerna selling 40% stake to Philip Morris. 29th May data excludes block deal between
OCBC and PT Bank NISP. June 1data includes block deals of OCBC and Sampoerna- Philip Morris.
On 30th Sep there was a large Rp 7.75 trn (c$850m) block trade crossed in Matahari Dept Store



Philippines – Strong inflows during the week
Figure 38: Weekly Net foreign investment into the Philippine stock market                                                                           Figure39: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into the Philippine stock market
US$, mils                                                                                                                            Index          US$, mils

                                                                                                                                                       7,300
                                                                                                                                          1,200        6,600
    370
                                                                                                                                          1,050        5,900
    270                                                                                                                                                5,200
    170                                                                                                                                   900          4,500
     70                                                                                                                                   750          3,800
    (30)                                                                                                                                  600          3,100
                                                                                                                                                       2,400
  (130)                                                                                                                                   450
                                                                                                                                                       1,700
  (230)                                                                                                                                   300          1,000
  (330)                                                                                                                                   150            300
      Jan-02                       Jul-04                     Jan-07                      Jul-09                       13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                     Jan-12                             (400)
                                                                                                                                                            Jun-99             May-01   May-03    May-05       Apr-07        Apr-09      Apr-11        Mar-13
                                             Foreigners' Net Buy (L)                        MSCI Philippines (R)
                                                                                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg, PSE.
Source: Bloomberg, DataStream, PSE. Note: Flow numbers has been adjusted to exclude a cross trade between Singtel and Ayala Corp involving
Globe Telecom in a US$118mil transaction and Kirin SMC deal valued at 157 million. 15th Feb 2006 data excludes US$ 140 mil foreign
investment in Universal Robina corp IPO. 5th Oct 2006 data excludes U$ 5,400 mill of primary share issue to international investors. Large inflow
on 5th May 2011 includes US$ 900mn secondary offering by San Miguel Corporation (SMC). Data for Philippines is till 29 Nov.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11
Adrian Mowat                                           Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                        15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com



Poland – Strong inflows in January
Figure 40: Monthly Net foreign investment into Poland equities by funds monitored by EPFR Global                     Figure 39: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Poland equities by funds monitored by
US$, mils                                                                                                  Index     EPFR Global
                                                                                                                     US$, mils
     300                                                                                                   2,700
                                                                                                                         1,500
     200                                                                                                   2,300         1,000
     100                                                                                                                   500
                                                                                                           1,900
        0                                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                           1,500
     (100)                                                                                                                (500)

     (200)                                                                                                 1,100        (1,000)
                                                                                                                        (1,500)
     (300)                                                                                                 700
        Nov-00        Jul-02       Mar-04       Dec-05         Aug-07      May-09     Jan-11      Sep-12
                                                                                                  Jan-13                (2,000)
                                                                                                                                 Mar-00     May-02     Jul-04       Aug-06        Oct-08        Dec-10       Jan-13
                                     Foreigners' Net Buy (L)              MSCI Poland (R)
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                               Source: EPFR Global.



Turkey – Strong inflows in January
Figure 40: Monthly Net foreign investment into Turkey equities by funds monitored by EPFR Global                     Figure 41: Monthly cumulative net foreign investment into Turkey equities by funds monitored by
US$, mils                                                                                                    Index   EPFR Global
                                                                                                                     US$, mils
      500
                                                                                                      1,150,000         2,000
      250                                                                                             1,000,000
                                                                                                                        1,500
                                                                                                      850,000
        0
                                                                                                      700,000           1,000
     (250)                                                                                            550,000
                                                                                                                          500
                                                                                                      400,000
     (500)
                                                                                                      250,000               -
     (750)                                                                                            100,000
        Nov-00        Jul-02      Mar-04      Nov-05         Jul-07     Mar-09   Nov-10     Jan-13
                                                                                             Jul-12                      (500)
                                                                                                                             Mar-00         May-02     Jul-04        Aug-06       Oct-08        Dec-10        Jan-13
                                   Foreigners' Net Buy (L)               MSCI Turkey (R)

Source:MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global.                                                                                Source: EPFR Global.




12
Adrian Mowat                                               Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                            15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com



Global Portfolio Weightings and Household Equity Weights


Figure 45: Global portfolio weightings of FI, Equities and Cash                                                                 Figure 46: Household equity weights

 50%
                                                                                                                                       70%                                        Household equity weights
 45%
                                                                                                                                       60%
                                                                                                                     Cash              50%
 40%
                                                                                                                                       40%
 35%
                                                                                                                                       30%

 30%                                                                                                                 FI                20%

                                                                                                                     Equities          10%
 25%
                                                                                                                                         0%
                                                                                                                                              52        57        62       67        72       77        82        87       92        97       02        07       12
 20%
       89      91       93       95       97       99        01       03       05       07       09       11                                                     US                       Japan                        Euroarea                       UK

Source: J.P. Morgan, BIS, Datastream. Global FI is proxied by the sum of the global domestic debt securities reported by BIS and Source: Fed, ECB, BoJ, ONS and J.P. Morgan. Includes direct holdings of equities and indirect holdings through pension funds, mutual funds
J.P. Morgan’s EMBIG index for external debt. For equities, we used the Datastream world equity index. Global cash is an          and Insurance companies. For the US, figure above does not include direct holdings of non-corporate equities.
aggregated M2 (or close proxy of M2) of developed and developing countries.




Table 2: Wealth inequality, demographics and inflation help explain differences in equity weightings across countries
                                Equity Holdings (Q3 2009)                        % held in pension funds (Q2 2009)                        Gini Wealth Distribution Index                    Median Age 2009                 Avg Inflation over past 25 yrs
US                                               35.8%                                                 29%                                                     0.8                                    36.7                                    3.0%
UK                                               45.7%                                                 67%                                                     0.7                                    40.2                                    2.7%
Euro area                                        31.0%                                                 27%                                                     0.6                                    41.6                                    2.3%
Japan                                            10.7%                                                 25%                                                     0.6                                    44.2                                    0.7%
Source: J.P. Morgan



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13
Adrian Mowat                                               Emerging Markets Equity Research
(852) 2800-8599                                            15 March 2013
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com


                                                                                                      Consensus underweight markets:
Consensus Asset Allocation                                                                            Taiwan, Malaysia, South Africa, Korea, Brazil, China,
                                                                                                      Mexico, Indonesia, Czech, Egypt, Hungary, Peru,
We come out with the Consensus Asset Allocation report                                                Poland, Philippines and Chile
every month, where we review the asset allocation of
                                                                                                      Consensus still remains biased in favour of energy and
managers of major emerging market funds relative to the
MSCI EM index as at the end of the reporting month. We                                                cheap valuations; net OW in Russia increased from nine
use two approaches. Our preferred is to count the                                                     to 13. The herd continues to be undecided about its
number of managers that are meaningfully OW or UW a                                                   position on Indonesia. Managers remain underweight the
market; this is defined as a greater than 2% deviation                                                EM export economies of Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia and
from the benchmark. These results are displayed in the                                                Mexico.
tables. The other is a simple average of the managers’
country weightings compared with the benchmark.                                                       The sectors and markets that significantly outperformed
Extreme positions of a few managers distorts this                                                     in the past month were Taiwan Financials, India IT,
analysis.                                                                                             Korea Consumer Discretionary, South Africa Consumer
                                                                                                      Discretionary, Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand.
In this report we analyze the country asset allocation of
the 56 EM fund managers surveyed by EPFR Global as                                                    Price momentum, earnings momentum, ROE and net
of the end January 2013.                                                                              analyst revisions are key outperforming quant factors in
                                                                                                      February. The beta of EM funds is now above their five
Consensus overweight markets                                                                          year average
Russia, India, Thailand and Turkey
                                                                                                      For more, please see, “Consensus Asset Allocation:
                                                                                                      Emerging Markets Equity Strategy,” Mowat et al, 25
                                                                                                      February 2013




Table 3: Survey of Key EM Managers Positioning Relative to MSCI EM – For major EMs
   Country          > 2% OW           < 2% UW            OW-UW            < 0.1%          MSCI EM                 Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark
                                                                                          Wts (%)         Minimum     Bottom quartile      Median      Top quartile  Maximum
Russia               23 (20)           10 (11)           13 (9)            4   (4)          6.3             (6.3)          (0.6)              1.3           3.0         8.2
India                15 (14)            6 (5)             9 (9)            0   (0)          6.8             (4.1)          (0.4)              0.7           2.1        17.7
Indonesia             4 (6)             6 (7)            -2 (-1)           5   (6)          2.7             (2.7)          (1.4)             (0.6)          0.6         5.7
Mexico                8 (8)             13 (9)           -5 (-1)           2   (2)          5.5             (5.5)          (1.5)             (0.3)          0.9         7.6
China+HK             15 (16)           23 (21)           -8 (-5)           1   (1)         18.8            (18.8)          (3.6)             (0.8)          2.3        11.5
Brazil               13 (12)           21 (20)           -8 (-8)           0   (0)         12.9             (8.0)          (3.4)             (1.0)          1.6         6.3
Korea                11 (11)           28 (27)          -17 (-16)          1   (1)         14.3            (14.3)          (5.1)             (2.1)          0.4         5.7
South Africa           7 (8)           32 (30)          -25 (-22)          0   (0)          7.3             (6.1)          (3.9)             (2.6)         (0.1)        4.5
China                 4 (10)           30 (30)          -26 (-20)          1   (1)         18.8            (18.8)          (5.9)             (2.5)          0.6        11.5
Malaysia               4 (5)           32 (32)          -28 (-27)         13   (12)         3.3             (3.3)          (3.1)             (2.2)         (1.0)       16.1
Taiwan                0 (0)            43 (42)          -43 (-42)          1   (1)         10.5            (10.5)          (4.9)             (3.8)         (2.2)        2.0
Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations.


Table 4: Survey of Key EM Managers Positioning Relative to MSCI EM – For EMs that are less than 2% of the benchmark
     Country            > 2% OW           < 0.1%(1)          OW-UW             MSCI EM               Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark
                                                                               Wts (%)       Minimum     Bottom quartile      Median      Top quartile  Maximum
Thailand                 18   (15)          4   (4)          14 (11)             2.6           (2.6)          (0.7)              0.4           2.1        4.8
Turkey                   14   (17)          5   (5)           9 (12)             2.0           (2.0)          (0.3)              0.3           2.0        9.6
Philippines               6   (6)          20   (22)        -14 (-16)            1.0           (1.0)          (1.0)             (0.2)          0.6        4.9
Chile                     2   (2)          22   (21)        -20 (-19)            1.9           (1.9)          (1.9)             (1.2)         (0.4)       5.4
Poland                    2   (1)          27   (27)        -25 (-26)            1.5           (1.5)          (1.5)             (1.2)         (0.1)       8.5
Peru                      2   (2)          28   (29)        -26 (-27)            0.6           (0.6)          (0.6)             (0.5)          0.7        4.6
Colombia                  1   (1)          31   (30)        -30 (-29)            1.3           (1.3)          (1.3)             (1.3)         (0.3)       3.1
Hungary                   2   (2)          40   (42)        -38 (-40)            0.2           (0.2)          (0.2)             (0.2)         (0.0)       6.5
Egypt                     1   (1)          40   (40)        -39 (-39)            0.3           (0.3)          (0.3)             (0.3)         (0.0)       5.8
Czech Republic            0   (0)          42   (43)        -42 (-43)            0.3           (0.3)          (0.3)             (0.3)         (0.2)       1.7
Morocco                   0   (0)          55   (57)        -55 (-57)            0.1           (0.1)          (0.1)             (0.1)         (0.1)       1.0
Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. Note: (1) <0.1% = zero weighting or bearish view. (2) The fund weightings are simple average of global emerging market funds country
weights tracked by EPFR. The survey covers 56 fund managers. (3) The calculation of OW is greater than 2% overweight versus the MSCI benchmark. UW is less than -2% of benchmark
weighting (4) Fund weightings are as of 31 January 2013 and MSCI weightings as of 1 February 2013. Numbers in brackets are the previous month values.



14
    Adrian Mowat                                  Emerging Markets Equity Research
    (852) 2800-8599                               15 March 2013
    adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




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J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 1, 2013
                                                                        Overweight        Neutral           Underweight
                                                                        (buy)             (hold)            (sell)
 J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage                            44%               44%               12%
    IB clients*                                                         53%               46%               34%
 JPMS Equity Research Coverage                                          42%               49%               9%
    IB clients*                                                         71%               62%               51%
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                                                                                                                                                                                                15
   Adrian Mowat                                     Emerging Markets Equity Research
   (852) 2800-8599                                  15 March 2013
   adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com



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   16
   Adrian Mowat                                      Emerging Markets Equity Research
   (852) 2800-8599                                   15 March 2013
   adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com



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consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P




                                                                                                                                                                                                        17
  Adrian Mowat                  Emerging Markets Equity Research
  (852) 2800-8599               15 March 2013
  adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com




J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Strategy Team
Chief Equity Strategists
Adrian Mowat                         Asia and Emerging Markets                  (852) 2800 8599      adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Pedro Martins Junior                 LatAm                                      (55-11) 4950-4121    pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com
David Aserkoff                       CEEMEA                                     (44-20) 7134-5887    david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com
   Frontier Markets
Aditya Srinath                       ASEAN                                      (62-21) 5291 8573    aditya.s.srinath@jpmchase.com
Christian Kern                       MENA                                       (971) 4428 1789      christian.a.kern@jpmorgan.com
Diego Celedon                        Southern cone and Andean                   (562) 425 5245       diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com
   Developed Markets
Thomas J Lee                         US                                         (1) 212 622 6505     thomas.lee@jpmorgan.com
Mislav Matejka                       Europe                                     (44-20) 7325 5242    mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com
Jesper J Koll                        Japan                                      (81-3) 6736 8600     jesper.j.koll@jpmorgan.com
Country Strategists
Emy Shayo                            Brazil                                      (55-11) 4950 6684   emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com
Bharat Iyer                          India                                      (91-22) 6157 3600    bharat.x.iyer@jpmorgan.com
Aditya Srinath                       Indonesia                                  (62-21) 5291 8573    aditya.s.srinath@jpmchase.com
Scott Seo                            Korea                                      (82-2) 758 5759      scott.seo@jpmorgan.com
Hoy Kit Mak                          Malaysia                                   (60-3) 2270 4728     hoykit.mak@jpmorgan.com
Anne Jirajariyavech                  Thailand                                   (66-2) 684 2684      anne.x.jirajariyavech@jpmorgan.com
Nur Cristiani                        Mexico                                     (5255) 5540 9374     nur.cristiani@jpmchase.com
Gilbert Lopez                        Philippines                                (63-2) 878-1188      lopez.y.gilbert@jpmorgan.com
Alex Kantarovich                     Russia                                     (7-495) 967 3172     alex.kantarovich@jpmorgan.com
Deanne Gordon                        South Africa                               (27-21) 712 0875     deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
Nick Lai                             Taiwan                                     (886-2) 27259864     nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com
Economic & Policy Research
Joyce Chang                          Global Head, Emerging Markets Research     (1-212) 834 4203     joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com
Colin P Fenton                       Global Commodities Research and Strategy   (1-212) 834-5648     colin.p.fenton@jpmorgan.com
David Fernandez                      Emerging Asia                              (65) 6882 2461       david.g.fernandez@jpmorgan.com
Luis Oganes                          Regional Head, Latin America               (1-212) 834-4326     luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com
Grace Ng                             Taiwan and Hong Kong                       (852) 2800 7002      grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com
Haibin Zhu                           China                                      (852) 2800 7039      haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com
Jiwon Lim                            Korea                                      (82-2) 758 5509      jiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.com
Jahangir Aziz                        India                                      (9122) 6157 3385     jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.com
Vladimir Werning                     Argentina and Chile                        (1-212) 834 4144     vladimir.werning@jpmorgan.com
Fabio Akira                          Brazil                                     (55-11) 3048 3634    fabio.akira@jpmorgan.com
Gabriel Lozano                       Mexico                                     (52-55)-5540-9558    gabriel.lozano@jpmchase.com
Michael Marrese                      Regional Head, Emerging Europe             (44-20) 7777 4627    michael.marrese@jpmorgan.com
Sonja Keller                         South Africa                               (27-11) 507 0376     sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com
Yarkin Cebeci                        Turkey                                     (90-212) 326 5890    yarkin.cebeci@jpmorgan.com
Anatoliy A Shal                      Russia                                     (7-495) 937-7321     anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com
Nora Szentivanyi                     Hungary, Poland                            (44-20) 7777 3981    nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com
Nicolaie Alexandru                   Czech Republic                             (44-20) 7742 2466    nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com
Rates Research
Bert Gochet                          Emerging Asia, Rates and Forex Strategy    (852) 2800 8325      bert.j.gochet@jpmorgan.com
Michael Trounce                      EMEA                                       (44-20) 7777-4356    michael.j.trounce@jpmorgan.com
Felipe Pianetti                      Latin America                              (1-212) 834-4043     felipe.q.pianetti@jpmorgan.com
Eric Beinstein                       Global                                     (1-212) 834-4211     eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com


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Description: Key Emerging Markets and Developed Asia Fund Flow