Energy and Global Climate Change Research

LBNL Activities in Industrial Energy Analysis Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Importance of Industrial Energy Analysis • The industrial sector uses approximately 41% of global primary energy use, and emits 43% of global GHG emissions • Industry is growing rapidly in developing countries, and is or will be the largest energy consumer in many economies • Curiously, detailed knowledge on the industrial sector is often lacking in the public sector • Rational energy efficiency policies depend vitally on information that describes the processes as well as energy efficient technologies, measures and policies Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL Activities • Improve understanding of driving forces and trends in industrial energy use and efficiency • Technology and market assessment of technologies and practices for energy efficiency improvement • Benchmarking energy efficiency and program support • Integrated assessment of energy efficiency opportunities, productivity improvement, and pollutant emission reduction • Assist in development of industrial energy efficiency policy instruments • Evaluate and support industrial energy efficiency programs • Improve modeling of industrial energy use for forecasting and scenario analysis Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Major Clients and Users • • • • • • • • • • • • • • U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Agency for International Development (AID) California Energy Commission Energy Foundation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations Pacific Gas & Electric Co. IEA GHG R&D Programme State Territorial Air Pollution Program Administrators Association of Local Air Pollution Control Officials New York State Energy Research and Development Authority North-West Energy Efficiency Alliance Iowa Energy Center Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Technology and Market Assessment • Technologies and Best Practices in specific industries – Chemicals - Food: – Iron and Steel - Breweries – Cement - Wet Corn Milling – Pulp and Paper - Glass – Steam and Cogeneration (CHP) - Auto Assembly • Emerging Technologies – Cross-cutting – Sector specific • Integrated assessment of technologies with respect to productivity benefits and pollutant emission reduction Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL Approach • Integrated assessment – current & future – energy efficiency – resource efficiency – economics – barriers & opportunities • Collaborative projects – clients – industries – R&D institutes – policy makers • Implementation & technology transfer – outreach – coordination with clients Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL Approach • Baseline and Trends – international comparisons – trends in production, technology and energy use/efficiency • Technologies and Potentials – identification of efficient practices and technologies – technical potential of energy and emission savings – economic assessment of measures – supply curves for energy and emission savings – use in integrated studies, e.g. “Clean Energy Futures” study (NEMS modeling) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Economic Potential Energy Efficiency Improvement U.S. Iron and Steel Industry 25 Discount Rate = 30% 20 Cumulative Cost-Effective Energy Savings = 2.9 GJ/tonne crude steel 21 Cost of Conserved Energy ($/GJ) 15 10 5% of Primary Energy Use for Total U.S. Steel Production in 1994 (25% of Primary Energy Use for Secondary Steel Production in 1994) 17 16 20 19 18 5 1994 Weighted Average Primary Fuel Price ($2.83/GJ) 0 6 2 1 3 4 5 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 7 8 -5 -10 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Savings (GJ/tonne) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory International ‘Best-Practice’ Comparison: Pulp & Paper Industry 50 Actual Practice Brazil Sweden US Best Practice 40 GJ/tonne 30 20 10 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Pulp/Paper ratio Japan Italy UK France Germany Netherlands Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Cement Industry: U.S. Energy Trends 10 9 8 7 SEC (GJ/metric ton) 6 5 4 3 WET DRY 2 EITHER CLINKER (AVERAGE) 1 CEMENT 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Energy Star Program • Energy Star is expanded to include partnerships between industries and government • Energy Star is a voluntary program with over 500 industrial partners (previously Climate Wise) • LBNL supports development of the program through development of tools • LBNL involved in development of: – benchmarking – guides on energy efficiency improvement – estimating program achievement Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Light Industries: Breweries Breweries in the U.S. spend annually $200 Million on energy U.S. has large breweries which are relatively efficient. Still, we identified many opportunities for energy efficiency improvement 600 U.S. SEC (Kbtu/barrel) 500 400 300 200 100 0 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 Anheuser-Busch (US) Coors (US) Canada Austria Asahi (Japan) Germany United Kingdom Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Combined Heat and Power • Baseline and Trends – industries – district heating – non-traditional clean power generation (power recovery) • Technologies and Potentials – technology assessment of new technologies – assessment technical and economic potential for CHP – two models: „bulk‟ and site-based analysis – sensitivity analysis of results for economic conditions (e.g. tax treatment, operation, buy-back tariffs, standbycontracts) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Industrial Boiler Systems • Baseline – focus on steam-intensive industries • Technologies and Potentials – identification of efficient practices and technologies – technical potential of energy and emission savings – economic assessment of measures – supply curves for energy and emission savings Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Benchmarking and International Comparisons • Approaches: – Physical energy intensity comparisons – Country or plant benchmarking – Energy efficiency index comparing actual energy use to benchmark energy use – Carbon emissions intensity index • Sectors: – Iron and steel – Cement - Pulp and paper - Chemicals • International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector (INEDIS) – development of methodology for making international comparisons Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory International Benchmarking: Carbon Intensity of Cement Making 0.3 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.2 0.19 0.19 Specific emissions (tC/t cement) 0.1 0.0 EE /FS U Ea st Ot he rA sia Pa cif ic Ch ina era ge Ind ia eri ca ca a Wo rld No rth OE CD Mi tin Source: LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory We ste La rn Eu ro pe ric Am e Af ri dd le Am av Plant-to-Plant Benchmarking: Energy Intensity of Clinker Production Clinker Production Energy Intensities Compared to Benchmarks 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 Cement Plant Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.9 Plant Intensities Weighted Industry Average Best Plant kg C/tonne clinker Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Benchmarking for Cement Production Energy Efficiency Index (EEI) = Actual Energy Intensity Benchmark Energy Intensity • Actual Energy Intensity = actual primary energy use for cement making by process step actual tonnes of cement produced • Benchmark Energy Intensity = benchmark primary energy use for cement making by process step actual tonnes of cement produced Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Emerging Technologies • Assessment of emerging technologies that are currently under development, demonstration or early market entry, but are expected to contribute substantially to energy savings by 2010-2015 • Identification of 200 emerging industrial technologies • In-depth characterization of 50+ technologies – potential energy efficiency improvement – productivity impact – environmental impact – economics – barriers • Reporting, collaboration with suppliers and users • International collaboration Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Emerging Technologies - Results • We are not running out of technologies to improve energy efficiency, economic and environmental performance, and neither will we in the future. • Innovative technologies can contribute considerably to future GHG emission reduction, at no or relatively low costs. • Many of the technologies have important non-energy benefits, ranging from reduced environmental impact to improved productivity, and reduced capital costs compared to current technologies. • The capital costs for a number of energy-efficient technologies may actually be cheaper than the conventional technology that they displace, e.g. glass batch preheating, roller kiln, smelting reduction. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Clean Energy Futures Study • Initiated by the U.S. Department of Energy in November 1998 • Goal: to identify and analyze policies that promote efficient and clean energy technologies to reduce CO2 emissions and improve oil security and air quality • Structure: Analysis undertaken by researchers at 5 DOE national laboratories with input from experts groups • Published in November 2000 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future: Industry • Comprehensive energy efficiency policy to address – Barriers – Diversity of industrial sector • Voluntary Agreements used as umbrella policy – Character of VAs vary by subsector – Supported by package of additional policies • Analysis of 2 policy scenarios – Moderate – Advanced • http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/CEF.htm Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future: Results - Carbon Dioxide Emissions 650 600 AEO99 BAU Moderate CO2 Emissions (MtC) 550 Advanced 500 450 400 350 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Clean Energy Futures Study: Results for selected Industries 40 1997 35 30 25 20 15 10 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -2.1 2020-BAU 2020-Moderate 2020-Advanced Total Final energy intensity is given in MBtu/$ (1987) -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 Energy Intensity (MBtu/ton) 5 0 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 Cement Steel Paper Total Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Developing Countries • Overview – contribution to GHG emissions by country and sector – review of global studies on future energy use in DCs • Industrial Sub-Sector Trends – production and technology mix – energy and GHG emissions – potentials for efficiency improvement • International Comparisons of Energy Intensities – energy intensities and benchmarking • Policy Options – identify and assess options for selected countries – develop and assess policy options (e.g. China) – tools for flexible mechanisms for climate change abatement: benchmarking of CDM projects Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Developing Countries • Data Collection and Compilation – Database • Assistance in Capacity Building – International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector (INEDIS) – training and collaboration with agencies (e.g. China) – visiting researchers (e.g. Brazil, India, Korea, Mexico) • Outreach – INEDIS-activities – presentations at conferences and workshops (APERC, Seoul Conference on Energy Use in Manufacturing, Earth Technologies) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Industrial Energy Efficiency Policy in China • Project sponsored by the China Sustainable Energy Program of the Energy Foundation • Project led by China Energy Conservation Association • First Phase: Review of Chinese and International Energy Efficiency Policies for Industry Focus on international experience with audits, benchmarking, information dissemination, financial assistance, sector-based targets Identify needed implementing regulations for the Energy Conservation Law • Second Phase: Pilot Project with the Iron & Steel Sector in Shandong Province Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory China Energy & Carbon Scenarios Project • Capacity building and policy analysis in China on energy efficiency and renewable energy. • Produce alternative renewable energy and energy efficiency scenarios for China • Provide analyses of selected programs and policies to implement energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. • Present analysis to leading governmental agencies. • Publicize the results to broader populations in China and in developing countries. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory INEDIS Network The INEDIS network focuses on analysis of industrial energy use and development of a database covering 20 countries for each industrial subsector: - top 10 producing countries - top 10 growth countries Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Utrecht University Universidade de Coimbra, ISR Fraunhofer, Gesellschaft ISI Lund University Federal University of Rio de Janiero TATA Energy Research Institute Canadian Industry Energy End-Use Data and Analysis Center Department of Minerals and Energy Inha University Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Polytechnic University Bucharest UNESCO Chair Institutt for Energiteknikk AKF ETH Zürich International Organisations Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre International Energy Agency World Energy Efficiency Association U.S. Netherlands Portugal Germany Sweden Brazil India Canada South Africa South Korea Mexico Romania Norway Denmark Switzerland APEC OECD Global Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory IPCC Activities • Special Report on Emission Scenarios – development of new baseline emission scenarios for future IPCC assessments – LBNL develops energy end-use part of scenarios • Special Report on Technology Transfer – trends, barriers and policies for transfer and cooperation in climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies – LBNL heads chapters on industry and sector overview • Third Assessment Report (TAR) – third overall assessment of the literature on climate change – LBNL heads and works on buildings, industry and barriers for adopting GHG mitigation technologies and practices Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Future Directions • Industrial policy development, implementation and evaluation • Integrated assessment of resource efficiency – energy – materials – water – productivity – pollutants • Analysis of R&D, technological change and energy use • Modeling and scenario analysis of industrial energy use • Climate change and industry (e.g. flexible mechanisms) • State, federal and international activities Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Contact Information Lynn Price LKPrice@lbl.gov (510) 486-6519 Ernst Worrell Eworrell@lbl.gov (510) 486-6794 http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/IEUA/IEUA.html Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory