Agriculture and Climate Change
Standard Note: Last updated: Author: SN/SC/3763 27 August 2009 Christopher Barclay Science and Environment Section
This records some predictions and comment relating to the effect of climate change on agriculture and forestry. It also contains a smaller amount on how agriculture might help reduce climate change. Other related notes are Biofuels and Farming (SN/SC/4269) and How UK farmers could reduce greenhouse gas emissions (SN/SC/4340)
Contents
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The effect of climate change on agriculture The National Farmers Union strategy Predicted changes in Europe The Farm report on UK agriculture Will there be another ice age? Forestry Speech by Agriculture Commissioner Fischer-Boel, July 2007 2 5 6 7 9 10 11
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The effect of climate change on agriculture
"By 2050 there will be nine billion of us living on this small and fragile planet. And the question is: do we have the capacity to feed the equivalent of another two Chinas? Global food production will need to double just to meet demand. We have the knowledge and the technology to do this, as things stand, but the perfect storm of climate change, environmental degradation and water and oil scarcity, threatens our ability to succeed." 1
Hilary Benn announced a council on food security in November 2008, noting:
Agriculture is less vulnerable to climate change than is forestry. Farmers can choose which seeds to plant and how to manage them. Forests would adapt far too slowly to climate change to be able to maintain their health. However, it is difficult for farmers to plan for dealing with greater uncertainty and changing rainfall patterns. In the UK even increases of temperature are not certain since a decline in the Gulf Stream over the next decades is a real possibility, potentially leading to the UK having far lower temperatures than it currently does. Many people had hoped that increased carbon in the atmosphere would increase plant growth and crop yields. That would help to reduce temperature growth and to feed the world’s population. However, research indicates that the increased plant growth in carbon rich environments in the laboratory is not matched in the outside world. A study of the year 2003, which was exceptionally hot in Europe, shows a sharp decline in agricultural productivity. The researchers noted some general points:
For croplands, we analysed harvest data from country-led statistics. In each country, harvest was converted to crop net primary productivity (NPP)…Differences in crop NPP in 2003 versus 1998-2002 reflect the combined response of cultivated plants to climate stress and possible management adaptations to it (for example, increased irrigation). Nevertheless the harvest data show a pronounced NPP decrease in 2003…in those agricultural regions affected by heat (northern Italy, France) and by drought (Ukraine, Romania). A record NPP drop of 36% occurred in Italy for maize, a cereal grown in the Po valley where exceptionally high temperatures prevailed. Winter crops (wheat) had nearly terminated their growth by the time of the heatwave and therefore suffered less NPP reduction than summer crops (corn) undergoing maximum foliar development. Mediterranean countries normally experience dry and hot summers, and therefore both irrigation and cultivation of drought-tolerant species reduced the impact of the climate conditions in these regions… We find that 2003 has the lowest productivity of the past century (20% below the 19601990 average). This result is in good general agreement with crop harvest historical data, especially for the summer crop maize… 2
The result is worrying, although farmers might be able to avoid the worst effects of such heatwaves, for example by selecting crops that mature earlier in the summer. The option of irrigation, of course, presupposes sufficient availability of water, which is far from certain. In May 2006, a Defra answer to a PQ stated its view of the likely effect:
John Bercow: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what assessment she has made of the impact of climate change on UK agriculture.
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Defra Press Release, Hilary Benn calls for global agreement to secure the future of our food as he appoints Council to advise on UK food strategy, 10 December 2008
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Mr. Morley: The UK climate impacts programme is conducting ongoing work to provide scenarios to show how our climate might change and co-ordinating research on dealing with our future climate. This includes work on climate change impacts on the agriculture sector. Research suggests that climate change impacts do not appear to threaten the viability of the agriculture industry as a whole in the UK due to the adaptability of UK systems. However, individual agricultural businesses and land managers will need to be alive to the need to adapt. The UK national adaptation policy framework is currently being developed. It will help to provide a more strategic approach to adaptation, identifying key risks and opportunities common across a number of policy areas and to coordinate approaches where possible. The first phase of the framework will be structured on a sectoral basis, and these sectors will include agriculture, horticulture and forestry as well as water resources, biodiversity and nature conservation. The new UK climate change programme 2006 has also assessed the role of agriculture in addressing climate change and seeks to raise awareness of the issues across the sector and develop measures to allow the sector to play a full part in tackling climate change. We have an ongoing programme of research to provide a robust evidence base to support our policy development on climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture. A project of particular relevance is CC0366: Publication of outputs arising from Defra research on impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector", which can be found at: http://www2.defra.gov.uk/research/project_data/More.asp?l=CC0366&M=K WS&V=cc03&SUBMIT1=Se arch&SCOPE=0. Our report Climate change and agriculture in the United Kingdom" also provides information on the new climatic and market conditions that may be experienced and enables farmers to consider strategies that will maintain or enhance their ability to anticipate climate change in their decision-making and take steps to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The report can be found on Defra's website at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/climate/climatechange/index.htm. 3
The floods of June 2007 are important because most models expect drier summers. However, more extreme weather events are also expected. Agriculture in the UK 2007 described the effects:
There were exceptional weather conditions in 2007, notably flooding in June and July 2007 in Yorkshire and the Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands and in the South East. Where there was severe flooding, crops and by-products such as straw were generally written off; where the flooding was less severe, yield and quality were adversely affected, especially where there were harvesting problems and delays. More generally, wet weather during the summer, when rainfall was over 150 per cent of normal levels, caused widespread levels of disease, especially potato blight and root rot in peas, increased lodging in cereals and beans, and delays in harvesting, especially of vining peas. 4
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Ciais et al, “Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003”, Nature, Vol 437, 22 September 2005 pp529-533 HC Deb 2 May 2006 c1309W Defra, Agriculture in the UK 2007, chapter 12008
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However, UK farm incomes rose by about 10% over the year, because other factors outweighed the bad weather. An article in Nature in August 2007 noted that increased carbon dioxide might reduce the nutritional value of crops. Other things being equal, an increased level of CO2 is normally assumed to be beneficial to crops:
But some are not so sure. They are sounding alarm bells about potential negative impacts; bigger yields, they say, are not always better. Their worry is that the nutritional value of crops would suffer regardless of overall abundance. These researchers point to the known negative effects that increased carbon dioxide concentrations have on the protein content of crops. They also worry about subtler effects that might be felt in everything from the micronutrient properties of soya beans to the ability of wheat to be baked into bread. They do not all share the same level of concern, but they do agree on one thing. Compared to the amount that is being spent on climate research, the amount being spent on understanding the agricultural effects of higher CO2 levels is woefully inadequate. 5
In August 2009, the New Scientist reported on research confirming those fears:
We already know that wheat exposed to higher CO2 has a lower protein content. To see whether it affects concentrations of trace elements and toxins, Petra Högy from the University of Hohenheim in Germany and ccolleagues grew wheat under CO2 concentrations expected by 2050. The team founs an 8% drop in iron and a 14% increase in lead. On the upside, levels of the heavy metal cadmium dropped by 14%. 6
The Defra website contains some general points:
How will climate change impact my business and what can I do to adapt? Britain’s farmers will feel the impact of our changing climate very directly, and this can present both threats and opportunities. The potential threats include: • • • • • • • prolonged and more frequent droughts changes in rainfall distribution more storms and other extreme weather events rising sea levels increased and changing pest loads increased risk of heat stress in livestock farming possible changes in soil water balance.
There also may be opportunities for new crops and enterprises as temperatures increase and growing seasons lengthen. While research suggests that climate change will not appear to threaten the viability of UK agriculture overall, individual agricultural businesses need to be ready to seize
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“The other greenhouse effect”, Nature, 2 August 2007 pp526-8 “Crop nutrition falls as CO2 rises”, New Scientist, 22 August 2009
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opportunities for new crops and markets, and to adapt to evolving pressures, such as water shortages and new pests and diseases. 7
A report by the Royal Agricultural Society of England in 2008 concluded that the UK’s soil and water research base had diminished catastrophically from its peak and was now failing to provide the required support for the nation’s farmers and land managers. The lack of research increased the risk of British agriculture damaging the soil. 8 In January 2009, the Guardian quoted a new study in the US journal Science:
Half of the world’s population could face severe food shortages by the end of the century as rising temperatures take their toll on farmers’ crops, scientists have warned. Harvests of staple food crops such as rice and maize could fall by between 20% and 40% as a result of higher temperatures during the growing season in the tropics and subtropics. Warmer temperatures in the region are also expected to increase the risk of drought…according to a new study. 9
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The National Farmers Union strategy
In November 2005, the NFU published a report, Agriculture and Climate Change, calling for urgent action on global warming. The report included a table with possible impacts:
Table 1 Climate Change and Possible Impacts on UK Agriculture Carbon dioxide levels: • Increase in levels Possible impacts on agriculture in the UK (based on UKCIP02) • Potential stimulated photosynthesis & yields (eg potatoes, wheat & forage) • Change the quality or composition of crops and grasslands (eg grapevines) Temperature • Temperature increase of 1-2°C in winter and 1.5-3°C in summer by the 2050’s (this effect is regionally variable & is based on high emissions scenario) • Increases in the number of ‘hot’ (≥20°C) and ‘very hot’ (≥27°C) days • Marked decline in the number of frosts • Growing season will lengthen Possible impacts on agriculture in the UK (based on UKCIP02) • Increased/change in range of native/alien pest & disease problems • (eg potato blight, Fusarium) • Reduced vernalisation (cold winter weather required for flowering) • Leave animals in fields for longer/housing period decreased • House design changes; cooling and ventilation system installation, • increasing costs to minimise heat stress, increased need for shade • Increased grazing opportunities in winter especially on freer draining soils • Damaged crops (eg wheat, salad crops) at extreme temperatures • Heat benefits some crops (onions, legumes, carrots & sweetcorn) • Change in crops grown (diversification into sunflowers, navy beans, soya, lupins, borage, apricots, walnuts, peaches, grapevines & evening primrose,
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http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/environment/climate-change/index.htm RASE, Dwindling science base poses threat to UK soil health – says Royal Agricultural Society of England Report, 23 October 2008 “Billions face food shortages,” Guardian, 9 January 2009
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most notably in the SE), less frost damage Change in crop range within UK (eg maize production move north) Lengthening of growing season leading to greater availability of UK grown produce throughout the year (eg soft fruit)
Precipitation • Decrease in summer rainfall • Increase in winter rainfall (regionally variable) Possible impacts on agriculture in the UK (based on UKCIP02) • Drop in some crop yields • Increased irrigation needs and changes in methods (eg potatoes) • Decrease in summer soil moisture • Changed poaching/water logging risk in some areas • Late harvest problematic (eg increased drying costs & working on wet ground) • Increased housing needed for livestock • Increase in drainage systems • Increase in wet weather related animal health problems/pest & disease problems Weather extremes • Increased frequency of extreme events, such as droughts & high temperatures, torrential rains & very strong winds Possible impacts on agriculture in the UK (based on UKCIP02) • Crop damage/total crop loss (eg lodging of wheat, un-harvestable fields) • Damage to agricultural buildings/change in building specifications • Changing cropping practices • Increased soil erosion • Lack of grazing in drought events • Increased heat stress in livestock • Increase in housing needed for livestock Sea level rise • Increase in sea level Possible impacts on agriculture in the UK (based on UKCIP02) • Loss of coastal, estuary and floodplain agricultural land • Erosion of land and salinisation of ground water Multiple changes Possible impacts on agriculture in the UK (based on UKCIP02) • Increase in cost and range of insurance • Increasing diversification • New skills training/differing agricultural workload • Change in agricultural markets, demand & competition. 10
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Predicted changes in Europe
In September 2005, climate change experts predicted that a northward shift would take place in European agriculture. Dr Martin Parry said there would be a 30% decrease in rainfall in
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NFU, Agriculture and Climate Change, November 2005
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the south of Europe and a 5-10% increase in the north. Scientists predicted that annual temperatures would increase by 0.1-0.4oC per decade.
Wheat yields could decrease in the south and increase in the north, with sunflowers and energy crops replacing sugarbeet crops in eastern England. Some experts have predicted that cereal yields could increase by as much as 20% because of rising levels of carbon dioxide, but Parry was less enthusiastic about such positive estimations of gains from climate change. He pointed out that there will be more days when the temperature goes above 30oC – he estimated that in southern Europe this could increase from 30 days at present to 70 days. This is unlikely to be beneficial for agriculture: the effects of the extreme heatwave in 2003 cost France and Italy €4bn each in agricultural losses… 11
The article also considered EU agriculture emissions:
While emissions from agriculture remained stable in the EU-25 between 1994 and 1999, there was a reduction of 6% between 1999 and 2003. The key sources of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are enteric fermentation, manure management and emissions from agricultural soils. The shares of these sources in 2003 in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture were 32%, 20%, and 48% respectively. The main reasons for the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture over the past ten years were declining cattle numbers and decreasing use of manure and fertiliser in most Member States. 12
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The Farm report on UK agriculture
Farm is a group representing farmers and consumers. It produced the following comments in February 2004 on the likely effects of global warming on UK farming:
How will this affect the UK? • Average annual temperatures across the UK may rise by between 2° and 3.5°C by the 2080s, with the degree of warming dependent on future levels of greenhouse gas emissions (Carbon Dioxide/CO2 being the main greenhouse gas). • Hotter, drier summers will become more frequent. Very cold winters will become increasingly rare. • The largest relative changes will be in the south and east where summer rainfall may decline by up to 50% by the 2080s. Heavy winter downpours will become more frequent - although the amount of snow could decline by 60% - 90% by the 2080s. • Sea levels will continue to rise and could be between 26 - 86 cm above the current level in south east England by the 2080s (NB. - 57% of Grade1 farmland is below sea level). • Extreme high tides, currently a 2 % annual probability, could become 10 to 20 times more frequent over the same period. Impacts on UK Agriculture specifically Overall UK agriculture will have to adapt to elevated CO2 levels, increased temperatures, changes in levels and distribution of seasonal rainfall, higher winter wind speed, and generally more extreme weather events. Longer, warmer spells:
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“Climate change to push EU agriculture northwards”, Agra Europe, 16 September 2005, EP/8 “Climate change to push EU agriculture northwards”, Agra Europe, 16 September 2005, EP/9
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An average rise in temperature will extend the early and late parts of the growing season. Potentially this could increase yields for certain crops (assuming there is sufficient water), and allow longer grazing periods for livestock. However, periods at 25°C or more at flowering would adversely affect cereals A rise in average temperature will accelerate plant growth, speeding up the time between germination and ripening. For some crops conversely this could lead to reduced yields as more rapid growth reduces the time the plant has to fix dry matter. The accelerated rate of ripening may reduce the window available for harvesting, making some crops more vulnerable to extreme weather. Of course, accelerated growth will also apply to weeds, increasing competition and the need for control measures. New crops could become viable in the UK – from grapes, navy beans, and sweetcorn to soya and sunflowers. But changes in temperature and crops will bring new pests. A 1.8°C rise in temperature would double the area in the UK in which the Colorado beetle can survive. Other pests and diseases that would be encouraged by higher temperatures include the South American leaf miner, potato ring rot, and rhizomania Winters will decrease in severity with fewer frosts. Reduced frost damage could increase productivity, but as most over-wintering plants require low temperatures (between 0 and 5°C) to acclimatise them to frost, there could be more damage from any later frosts. The lack of a ‘cold snap’ will also enable more pests and diseases to over-winter. An increase in soil temperature and decrease in soil water results in a decrease in soil organic matter, or soil carbon, and an increase in soil carbon dioxide emissions. Increased temperatures in winter have potential adverse implications for soil structure – as frosts help prepare soils for cultivations Warmer temperatures mean greater evaporation from soils and leaves. Bigger leaf canopies use up more water. As for humans, hot weather can cause heat stress for livestock in the field, in housing, and while being transported.
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Changes in precipitation patterns: Lower summer rainfall will: Make crops more vulnerable to drought stress. Increase demand for irrigation, in particular for horticultural produce such as salad and potatoes. Cause soil cracking, as visible in many areas this summer, with consequent nutrient losses and sward deterioration. With less water to dilute pollutants, river quality could suffer.
Higher winter rainfall will:
Increase difficulties over waste-water management and working water-logged land. Exacerbate soil erosion from increased run-off. Significantly increase risks of flooding, especially in East Anglia and most notably The Fens. Recent analysis suggests that arable farming might become unviable on: 86 % of the Fens 10 % of the remainder of East Anglia and 7 % of the North West due to flooding - unless expensive adaptations are made to flood defences.
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Increased frequency of extreme weather patterns: Global warming would be better termed ‘Global Storming’, as increased storminess is predicted as a consequence of climate change. More storms mean more risk of soil erosion risk and flash flooding. Physical damage to plants, including increased lodging (flattened crops) risk in arable crops. Hailstones and mud-splash will be of great concern to vegetable and soft fruit growers. Coastal cropland will suffer greater salt spray damage during storms… 13
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Will there be another ice age?
Work in 2004 measuring ocean currents increased concern that the Gulf Stream might weaken rapidly, possibly shutting down completely in as little as three decades. Research published in Nature in December 2005 was summarised as follows by the editor:
The circulation across the 25° N latitude line in the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Bahamas has become the benchmark for estimating the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, an important component of global ocean transport that carries warm upper waters into far northern latitudes via the Gulf Stream and returns cold deep waters south across the Equator. Its heat transport contributes to the moderate climate of maritime and continental Europe. A new hydrographic section across 25° N was taken in 2004, and comparison with measurements from 1957, 1981, 1992 and 1998 reveals a slowing of almost a third between 1957 and 2004. This means that more Gulf Stream waters are now recirculating southwards at mid-ocean depths, and that southward transport of cold lower North Atlantic Deep Water has halved. Some climate models suggest that the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 will result in a slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation, so this latest finding will add fuel to the debate on climate change. 14
Publication raised speculation of UK temperatures declining spectacularly, perhaps by 6o or even more. That possibility makes it harder than ever for farmers, amongst others, to prepare for the future. However, a PQ in December 2005 shows UK Government thinking that temperature decline is not the most likely scenario:
Mr. Hollobone: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what assessment has been made of the potential impact on England and Wales of changes to the Gulf Stream as a result of climate change. Mr. Morley: Research funded by Defra at the Met Office's Hadley Centre is aimed at determining the likelihood of changes as a result of global warming to the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC), of which the Gulf Stream forms an important component. Although recent data collected by the Natural Environment Research Council suggest a possible recent weakening of components of the THC of up to 20 to 30 per cent., changes in the strength of the Gulf Stream itself or effects on temperatures have not been seen. Latest Hadley Centre modelling results indicate that a sustained slowing of the THC over a few decades could have a cooling effect of about 1C. However, warming due to greenhouse gases is likely to be greater, leading to a net warming in coming decades.
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Farm, What will Climate change mean for UK farmers? 6 February 2004 Editor’s Summary, “Atlantic Ocean Trends”, Nature, 1 December 2005
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No specific assessment has been made of the potential impacts of this scenario but it would likely mean that impacts would be reduced relative to current warming scenarios. 15
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Forestry
Forestry is normally considered to be at great risk from climate change. Trees grow so slowly that a change in temperatures is likely to subject existing trees to enormous stress. In January 2006, the Forestry Commission published a report for tree and woodland managers on living with climate change. It was based on the following climate predictions:
• An overall rise in temperature of 2 to 4.5 degrees • A longer growing season, advancing spring flushing of trees by up to 30 days • No dormant season • A fall of up to 60% in soil moisture levels in summer • An increase of up to 20% in winter rainfall • A fall in humidity of up to 15% and less cloud cover.
The report considered the likely impact of those changes:
Impact of climate change on tree species The nature and character of native woodland is likely to change and the current National Vegetation Classification (NVC) system may need amending • Coniferous woodland generally uses more water than other land uses; this may limit where it is deemed an acceptable land cover. • The best-suited conifer will be Corsican pine across the whole region and Douglas fir in parts of the region. • Scots pine will decrease in suitability. • Norway spruce is unlikely to be commercially viable • Of the commercially planted broadleaves, only Pedunculate oak is likely to remain commercially productive across much of the region. • Beech is most likely to be adversely affected. Impact of climate change on tree pests and diseases As pests and diseases respond to climate change, their impact on trees and woodland also changes. There is likely to be: • An increase in the population density of mammalian pests, especially deer, rabbit and grey squirrel, as a result of milder winters. • An increase in the activity of pathogens and insect pests. • The possible establishment in the region of more exotic pests such as the Asian longhorn beetle • An increase in the incidence of phytophthora root infection and of red band needle blight in Corsican pine.
The report also considered what should be done;
What action should be taken ? action planning should use a range of time frames Climate change is a gradual process that happens over decades. Why act now? Why not wait until predictions are more precise? Work to adapt to climate change needs to start now but it will be a long-term process that needs to be tackled in a staged, prioritised way.
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HC Deb 12 December 2005 c1596W
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• Long-term planning processes should consider woodland creation prior to residential and business development so that mature trees can provide benefits such as reduction of air pollution. • Novel species such as Robinia and Nothofagus might be considered for commercial forestry. • Species suitability should be assessed to ensure future woodland cover. • Inspection of imported plants and woody material should be maintained to identify pests and diseases from abroad. • Monitoring of urban trees on clay soils should be undertaken as the high summer take-up of water by trees can result in subsidence and increased insurance claims.
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Speech by Agriculture Commissioner Fischer-Boel, July 2007
On 3 July 2007 EU Agirculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel made a speech on “Farming’s role in mitigating climate change”. This note includes the parts of the speech relating to the effect of climate change on agriculture and adaptation by farmers, while the parts relating to what farmers can do to mitigate are covered in How UK farmers could reduce greenhouse gas emissions (SN/SC/4340). She saw some potential benefits in northern Europe but expected considerable problems with high temperatures and water shortages in the south. She stressed the EU’s emphasis upon mitigation, but went on to adaptation:
Thankfully, in the area of agricultural policy, we're not starting from scratch. The Common Agricultural Policy already has central building blocks in place which should make it easier to adapt to climate change. One of these is the decoupling of direct payments from agricultural production. One of the aims of decoupling is to allow farmers to be responsive to various external forces. I often emphasise responsiveness to the market – which is of course essential. But I could add that decoupling helps farmers be responsive to their physical environment. For example, in the past, the link between direct payments and production encouraged farmers to keep producing water-intensive crops even in areas where water was a precious commodity. Now that they no longer need to hold to their old production choices to keep the cheque coming from Brussels, they can think twice and try something more suitable for a dry climate. For this reason, I'm glad that we recently agreed to extend the principle of decoupling to the fruit and vegetable sector, in which there are some very thirsty products. At the same time, the second pillar of the CAP – rural development policy – provides plenty of tools to offset the damage that bad weather causes to farms, forests and rural economies. For example, rural development money has already been used to alleviate water scarcity – through support for action to save water, or for investment in more efficient irrigation equipment. Overall, then: within the CAP as within other European Union policies, we're already being serious about adapting to climate change. But what about further possible action? It's obvious that a lot of the work of adaptation must take place at the level of the farm, in a very practical way: policy documents have their place, but they don't keep the rain off very well. For example, farmers can: • • • change their crop rotation to make the best use of available water; use varieties which are better suited to new weather norms; and plant hedgerows or small wooded areas on arable land to act as wind-breaks.
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Many other things are possible. On the other hand, all farming in the European Union is covered by a farm policy, and that policy has to give the right support. Farmers can't shoulder the burden of climate change alone. One of the policy-maker's main weapons is information – and I have to say that we don't have enough of it just yet. Yes, we have modelled climate change at a global level. Some models give us different results from others. In any case, we don't yet have enough detailed information on impact at a regional level – or enough thorough assessment of options for adaptation and of how they can work in practice. In other words: even if the European Union suddenly gave me an unlimited budget tomorrow, I wouldn't be able to design the perfect policy to help our farmers live with climate change… It's too early for me to indicate what we may conclude. But I would like to give a few general reflections now. First, regulation has its place, but I'm not sure that we can regulate our way to a solution. Farmers must already follow quite a number of environmental rules. Perhaps more rules will be needed; but I suspect that, wherever possible, we should give farmers positive incentives – incentives to adapt their farm structures and production methods, and to continue providing environmental services. This brings me to my second point: the importance of rural development policy. Within the CAP's second pillar, we explicitly reward farmers and other land-managers for environmental goods and services that they provide. And as I mentioned earlier, rural development policy also supports various efforts to adapt to various challenges, environmental and other. Thirdly, we must take a closer look at possible tools for managing risks and crises. I have said publicly several times that we're doing this at a general level within the Health Check. We also included specific provisions in the recent reform of the fruit and vegetable sector, and have proposed provisions for the wine sector… To summarise: climate change is now a "given" in agricultural policy-making. In the words of the old saying, the horse has bolted. We can't now shut the gate. But we can at least run after the horse, hope to calm him down at some point - and in the meantime, limit the damage that he does. This must be an aim of the CAP. So watch this space… 16
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http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=SPEECH/07/455&format=HTML&aged=0&languag e=EN&guiLanguage=en
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