Surge and Decline

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					  The Future

The Election of 2012
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives
• Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential
  Elections.
The Recent News

EVENTS IN PAKISTAN
           The Bin-Laden effect
• Not as big as you might
  think (this isn’t 2004)

• Terrorism was a minor
  issue in 2008 and not a
  factor in 2010

• No Republican hopefuls
  are running on “foreign
  policy”
Foreign Policy Bumps are Fleeting
Like Father, Like Son
The Economy Will be the big event
 in 2012, this event will be too far
     removed on Election Day
The odds in 2012

BETTING ON OBAMA
                  Incumbency
• The Last incumbents
  who lost were
   – 1992
   – 1980
   – 1976

• He is facing no primary
  challenger
             Campaign Finance
• $1,000,000,000




• Citizens United Money
  as well


• This alone discourages
  most challengers
The Electoral College
Popular on the Left
          • Strong Support Among
            Democrats

          • Very popular among key
            constituencies

          • Policies are popular, and
            he is personally popular
Popularity on the Happy Side of
              50%
Signs of Economic Growth
            • Unemployment peaked
              in October 2009
              (10.1%)


            • Increase in consumer
              confidence
GDP Growth
Four Scenarios

THE 2012 ELECTION
             Going In to 2012
• Both Parties are optimistic

• Unknowns
  – The Economy

  – The Republican Nominee

  – Seats in the House and Senate
      Scenario 1: The Status Quo
• Little Change in either
  the House or Senate

• A “personal victory” for
  Obama (e.g. 1984)

• Good odds of this
  happening
        Scenario 2: An Emerging
          Democratic Majority
• Coincides with an
  Obama victory

• The Democrats take
  back the House, expand
  lead in the Senate

• A return to the Obama
  Coalition.
Scenario 3: A Republican Congress
                 • GOP keeps the House

                 • The GOP Surges in the
                   Senate

                 • This leads to full-scale
                   battle between the
                   President and Congress
  Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep
• The GOP maintains the
  House

• Gains 4 in the Senate


• Wins the Presidency

• Very Unlikely
2012 A Presidential Election


       The Republicans
  Who Might Run against Obama?
• Candidates need to
  decide if this is their
  window


• Who runs depends on
  what happens in the
  next 6 months
Sarah Palin
Old Foes from 2008
Unknown Governors
Crazies and Long shots
Turning back to the Clock to 1994
The Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats

RUNNING THE NUMBERS
A Republican Win: Step 1
A Republican Win Step 2
A Republican Win Step 3
A Republican Win Step 4
This will be very difficult to
          achieve!

				
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posted:3/29/2013
language:English
pages:34