Hazard Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation

Adapting to Climate Change Through Hazard Mitigation Planning Jerry Sparks, P.E., CFM Corinne Bartshire, AICP, CFM www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Some Nomenclature • FEMA definition – Mitigation: any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate longterm risk to life and property from a hazard event • International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definitions – Mitigation: an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system; it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks – Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Climate Change Impacts on Natural Hazards • Climate change may: – increase (amplify) many existing hazards – introduce new hazards into areas not used to dealing with them • Potential impacts of climate change on natural hazards in U.S. include: – Increased sea level rise, surge, and coastal flooding and erosion – Increased stresses on water resources: • Increased flooding • Reduced mountain snowpack • Reduced summer flows/drought – Increased wildfire risk – Increased extreme heat • Non-climate stresses will be exacerbated • Important regional variations Source: Andrea Booher/FEMA www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Total Road Miles in 100-Year Coastal Floodplain (Lower 48 States) www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Disaster Costs are Rising • Rising disasters reflect: – Increasing hazards – Increasing development and land use changes – Poor planning • Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Infrastructure Collapse • Nearing the end of design life of much of our national infrastructure – – – – – – roads bridges stormwater systems dams levees water Facilities Chaffee, MO, March 20, 2008 – Heavy rains inundated diversion canals and topped levees in this rural community, causing widespread flooding and road closures. (FEMA photo\John Shea) • Infrastructure being built now and in near term will be expected to last much of the next century www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp What can be done to address potential impacts of climate change? Risk= Probability x Consequence • Climate change may increase probability of many natural hazards – Largely beyond our control • Consequence is much more within our control – Can be reduced through proper planning • Climate Change is relatively gradual – A slow onset disaster – Opportunity to plan for it now www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Use of State and Local Mitigation Plans for Climate Change Adaptation • Natural hazard mitigation can be an important element of climate change adaptation • Hazard Mitigation Plans: – Potentially powerful tool for adapting to amplifying effects of climate change on natural hazards in a planned and optimal manner – Already being prepared – Regular update cycle provides impetus for updating as scientific information becomes better – Multi-hazard; allow planners to take a holistic rather than stove-piped approach www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Hazard Mitigation Planning • What is hazard mitigation planning? – Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 – FEMA grants to support mitigation planning nationwide – Early identification of risk reduces long-term exposure – Mitigation Plans meet multiple objectives of the community by combining other plans and initiatives www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Elements of a Hazard Mitigation Plan A systematic and phased approach Collect Data including Identifying Assets Prioritize Threats and Assets Assess Overall Vulnerability Identify Hazards Assess Capabilities Identify Programmatic Mitigation Measures Develop Mitigation Goals, Objectives and Strategies Identify Structural Mitigation Measures Mitigation Plans www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Mitigation Measures Without Climate Change Consideration • Larchmont Edgewater neighborhoods of Norfolk, Va. • Homes elevated after Hurricane Isabel (2003) • Sea level rise not considered Source: William A. Stiles, Jr. www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Development Without Climate Change Consideration • Cedar Island, Va. • Houses circa 1970s Source: Stephen M. Katz/Virginian-Pilot www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Example Strategies • Adopt cropping practices that are robust over a wide spectrum of water availability • Develop “future conditions” floodplain maps for climate change scenarios and use those maps for zoning and planning • Consider climate change impacts on natural hazards in establishing design levels for new and replacement infrastructure • Establish “cooling centers” for at-risk populations for periods of extreme heat www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Example Adaptation Strategies for Floodplain/Stormwater Management Adaptation Goal Increase storm water management capacity Adaptation Action • Increase capacity of storm water collection systems • Modify urban landscaping requirements to reduces storm water runoff • Preserve ecological buffers • Change floodplain management ordinances to discourage development in flood hazard areas and/or regulate the future conditions floodplain • Move/abandon infrastructure in hazardous areas • Acquire vulnerable properties and convert to recreational or open space or restore to natural floodplain functions • Update building codes to require more flood resistant structures in floodplain • Update flood maps to reflect changing risk associated with climate change • Conduct additional research on how climate change may impact stormwater and flooding Reduce property and infrastructure damage Improve hazard and risk management information www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Example Adaptation Strategies for Coastal Ecosystems Adaptation Goal Reduce shoreline erosion Adaptation Action • Preserve ecological buffers to allow for inland beach migration • Enhance shoreline protection where retreat and accommodation are not possible • Reduce future development in coastal hazard areas • Implement policies of non-reconstruction of damaged infrastructure and buildings in low lying, vulnerable areas (“retreat”) • Acquire vulnerable properties and convert to recreational or open space or restore wetlands • Incorporate climate change impacts into design requirements for coastal structures • Move or abandon shoreline infrastructure • Restore wetlands for storage and flood control • Incorporate information on sea level rise into coastal planning and ecosystem restoration • Preserve ecological buffers to allow for inland migration of wetlands, salt marshes, and other habitat systems Reduce property and infrastructure damage from sea level rise, erosion, and flooding Improve hazard and risk management information Maintain or enhance coastal habitat www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Examples of Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Hazard Mitigation Planning • California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan • Frederick Co., MD Mitigation Plan • North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp 2007 California State Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan • Included qualitative discussion and assessment of climate change as an emerging issue • Plan for more rigorous analysis in subsequent updates • Survey of local plans within the state: – None had addressed climate change – Many local governments are resource constrained and have not identified climate change as a planning issue www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Frederick County, MD, Hazard Mitigation Plan Hazard Relative Risk High Water Resources • Strains on water supply • Adverse water quality affects Drought/ Extreme Heat Sector Transportation Agriculture Infrastructure • Shorter growing • Increase roadside season erosion • Reduced crop • Failure of yield roadway asphalt High Flash/ River Flooding/ Thunderstorm • Adverse water quality affects • Damage to crops • Increase roadside • Damage to erosion irrigation • Failure of systems roadway asphalt • Damage to crops • Failure of roadway asphalt Human Health and Welfare • Increase food costs • Food shortages • Heat strokes • Respiratory problems • Reduced air quality • Flooding deaths • Injury from debris • Population displacement • Injury from debris • Population displacement Winter Weather (Snow & Ice) Med-High • Groundwater availability www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study • Develop reasonable scenarios of potential sea level rise, ‘storminess’, flooding, and development conditions for 4 “time slices” through 2100 • Use these scenarios to perform system-wide risk assessments of: – Permanent flooding (sea level rise) – Temporary flooding (tides, surge, wave heights) – Annualized damages, 100 & 500-yr events, adjusted historical events • Consider dynamic interactions (avoid bathtub approach) • Identify and recommend risk management strategies including: – – – – – – Public policy Planning and zoning requirements Codes and standards Environmental Analysis and monitoring Outreach www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Study Website - http://www.ncsealevelrise.com/ www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Climate Change Informational Survey www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp Summary • Climate Change will have a significant impact on natural hazards • Hazard Mitigation Plans provide a mechanism for adaptation ahead of mandates – Opportunity to incorporate climate change into existing planning preemptively – “No regrets” approach – Maximizes ramp up time – Medium to longer-term cost savings www.dewberry.com/climatechange.asp