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					US and Southeast Asia

  From SEATO to ASEAN
                  Outline
• US strategies of containment
  – original formulation
  – SEATO
  – Indochina and the Philippines
• ASEAN
  – Post-Cold War changes
• Counter-terrorism in Southeast Asia
    Containment 1950s-1980s
• US foreign policy treated Southeast Asia
  as an arena for competition with the Soviet
  Union
• Former US Secretary of State Henry
  Kissinger: ``Our objective was to purge our
  foreign policy of all sentimentality”
      Appeal of Communism
• It seemed to be the wave of the future
  – dramatic economic and technological
    advances of the Soviet Union
  – anti-colonialism
  – ``importance by association” psychology
  – opportunity for greater personal power
  – public disappointment and resentment at the
    poverty and violence after independence
     Architect of Containment
• George Kennan’s original formulation
  called for the coordinated use of political,
  economic, and military influence to prevent
  the expansion of Soviet control in vital
  regions
          Original Formulation
•   Traditional Russian sense of insecurity
•   Stalin’s need for a hostile world
•   S.U. was not primarily a military threat
•   A long-term containment of Russian
    expansive tendencies will lead to
    – "either the break-up or the gradual mellowing
      of Soviet power."
    ``Truman Doctrine” (1947)
• ``It must be the policy of the United States
  to support free peoples who are resisting
  attempted subjugation by armed minorities
  or outside pressures”
• Implies that substantial US support could
  be counted on anywhere, not just in those
  vital regions
        Economic Strategies
• In late 1940s, economic assistance was
  the central pillar of anti-communist policy
  – Marshall Plan to rebuild Western Europe
  – The ``arsenal of democracy”
     • technological and economic resources
   Early Aid to Southeast Asia
• US pressured the Netherlands to give
  independence to Dutch East Indies colony
• US-Indonesia economic and technical
  assistance agreement in 1950
• US aid programs to Thailand and Burma in
  1950
       Militarization in Policy
• US strategic shift of containment toward
  reliance on military strength in 1950s
• Obligated US to ``bear any cost” against
  communist incursions anywhere in the
  world
       SEATO (1954 - 1977)
• Southeast Asia Treaty Organization
• Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty
• Australia, France, Great Britain, New
  Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines,
  Thailand, and the United States
• oppose further Communist gains in
  Southeast Asia
       SEATO (1954 - 1977)
• Headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand
• SEATO's principal role was to sanction the
  U.S. presence in Vietnam, although
  France and Pakistan withheld support
• Unable to intervene in Laos or Vietnam in
  ‘60s and ‘70s due to its rule of unanimity
• SEATO was ultimately disbanded in 1977
Arc of Containment
   ``Falling Domino" Principle
• President Eisenhower (1954-04-07):
  – ``beginning of a disintegration that would have
    the most profound influences”
  – ``the possible sequence of events, the loss of
    Indochina, of Burma, of Thailand, of the
    Peninsula, and Indonesia”
  – ``the possible consequences of the loss are
    just incalculable to the free world”
    ``Falling Domino" Principle
• Simplistic perception of a monolithic
  Communist bloc
• Simplistic assumption that societies and
  politics in the vast, diverse Asia-Pacific
  region were essentially all alike
    A Source of Misperception
• The communist-hunt of 1947-1953 in US
  – Federal Employee Loyalty Program
  – House Un-American Activities Committee
  – Internal Security Act
  – Senator Joseph McCarthy claimed
    communists had infiltrated S.D. and US Army
• purged the Administration of its best senior
  Asia expertise
        US in the Philippines
• Philippines became a cornerstone of US
  ``containment” in Southeast Asia
• US shored up the Philippine government
  with advisors and assistance
• US upgraded its two bases in the
  Philippines
  – Clark Air Force Base and the Subic Naval
    Base
       Clark Air Force Base
• Damaged by a volcanic
  eruption in 1991
Subic Naval Base
• The air and naval bases
  became the most consistent,
  visible, and emotional of the
  issues that troubled US-
  Philippine post-war relations
• Natural disaster and the end of
  Cold War made these bases
  less desirable to US
               Subic Bay
• Closed in 1992
• Philippine government converted it
  into a special economic zone to
  attract investment
  – Subic Bay Freeport Zone
  – Commerce and tourism
• 1996 APEC Summit
          ASEAN: overview
• Association of Southeast Asian Nations
• 10 member states
  – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
    Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, &
    Vietnam
• home to over 500 million people
• collective GDP of US$750 billion
     ASEAN: founding (1967)
• 5 founding members:
  – Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia,
    Philippines
• Bangkok Declaration of 1967:
  – accelerate economic growth
  – promote regional peace and stability
  – contain the spread of communism
           End of Cold War
• ASEAN Free Trade Area
  – initiated at ASEAN summit in 1992
  – comprehensive program of regional tariff
    reduction
  – program later broadened and accelerated
  – reaffirmed during Asian Financial Crisis of
    1997-1998
          End of Cold War
• Expansion of ASEAN
  – 1995: Vietnam
  – 1997: Laos
  – 1997: Myanmar
  – 1999: Cambodia
      ASEAN: external links
• A joint forum with Japan was established
  in 1977
• A cooperation agreement with the
  European Community was signed in 1980
• ``ASEAN + 3”: regular series of meetings
  at the cabinet and head-of-government
  levels with Japan, China, and South Korea
  since 1997
            ASEAN and U.S.
• Investment:
  – US$100 billion in U.S. direct investment
• Market:
  – 3rd largest overseas market for U.S. exports
• Trade:
  – Two-way ASEAN-U.S. trade totaled US$172
    billion in 2007, up from $85 billion in 1990
              US Imports (billion US$) from Major Asian Economies

700

                                                                                                                                    India
600


500                                                                                                                                 South Korea


400
                                                                                                                                    Japan
300


200                                                                                                                                 China


100
                                                                                                                                    ASEAN

 0
      1990
             1991
                    1992
                           1993
                                  1994
                                         1995
                                                1996
                                                       1997
                                                              1998
                                                                     1999
                                                                            2000
                                                                                   2001
                                                                                          2002
                                                                                                 2003
                                                                                                        2004
                                                                                                               2005
                                                                                                                      2006
                                                                                                                             2007
                    US Exports (billion US$) to Major Asian Economies

250

                                                                                                                                     India

200

                                                                                                                                     South Korea

150

                                                                                                                                     Japan

100

                                                                                                                                     China

50

                                                                                                                                     ASEAN

 0
      1990
             1991
                     1992
                            1993
                                   1994
                                          1995
                                                 1996
                                                        1997
                                                               1998
                                                                      1999
                                                                             2000
                                                                                    2001
                                                                                           2002
                                                                                                  2003
                                                                                                         2004
                                                                                                                2005
                                                                                                                       2006
                                                                                                                              2007
                       US Investment in ASEAN

              90,000

              80,000                            Thailand

              70,000

              60,000                            Singapore
million US$




              50,000

              40,000                            Philippines

              30,000

              20,000                            Malaysia

              10,000

                  0
                                                Indonesia
                     90

                     91

                     92

                     93

                     94

                     95

                     96

                     97

                     98

                     99

                     00

                     01

                     02

                     03
                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  19

                  20

                  20

                  20

                  20
         Counter-Terrorism
• US troops in the Philippines to assist
  Philippine armed forces to fight terrorists
• 2000-12-24 church bombings in Indonesia
• 2000-12-30 bombing in Manila, Philippines
• 2002-10-12 the Bali attacks
• 2003-08-05 J.W. Marriott Hotel bombing in
  Jakarta
          Counter-Terrorism
• US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State:
  – ``the common threat of terrorism has actually
    strengthened (U.S.) cooperation and ties with
    key Southeast Asian countries."
• http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2003/31
  611.htm

				
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posted:3/28/2013
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