SEE Project Idea Form
3rd Call for Proposal – Priority 2
Climate Change Adaptation: assessing vulnerabilities and risks and translating
them to implementation actions at the regional and local levels
Project idea’s title National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture in vulnerable areas and river
Project Idea Promoter Ministry of Environment, Mining and Spatial Planning
(name of the institution)
Contact Person Lana Ristic
Department for Project Management
Ministry of Environment, Mining and Spatial Planning
Is the applicant the project’s potential Lead Partner?
Yes X No
If not, is the potential Lead Partner already being chosen?
Yes X No
Background (main problems or challenges to be addressed)
Climate change poses a real and growing problem for south-eastern Europe. In this region, already
vulnerable to climate variability and climate extremes, climate change is projected (IPCC AR4) to worsen
conditions. In particular, climate change may enhance the existing problems of desertification, water
scarcity and food production, while at the same time introducing new threats to human health, ecosystems
and national economies of the countries. The potential effects of climate change are very diverse and are
likely to alter the basic necessities of life, such as food, water, health, land usage and the environment, and
will be more damaging with increased warming and significantly decreased precipitation.
Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation (CCFAP-A) recognizes it is likely that the
first impacts of climate change will be felt in the water resource systems of the SEE region. Reductions in
water availability would hit SEE countries the hardest. The overall water availability in the SEE countries
for year 2070s is expected to be reduced by -10 to -50%. The SEE region could suffer increasingly
frequent regional water shortages due to the twin problems of reduced water resources in terms of their
quantity and quality and rising demand.
At the same time, the SEE region has high vulnerability to flood and drought related hazards. The lack
of river basin management practices and deteriorating flood regulating infrastructure have increased
vulnerability to floods and landslides in flood prone areas. The lack of human and institutional capacities
has also increased vulnerability to climate related hazards.
In order to ensure sustainable development of the SEE countries, development of adaptation strategies
for water resources management is one of the priority needs. For development of appropriate measures and
activities for adaptation related to water management information exchange and technology transfer are
In CCFAP-A Republic of Serbia expressed its intention, and parties agreed, to coordinate sub-regional
adaptation projects and activities in water management.
Also, CCFAP-A shows that climate change impacts on water resources will imply particularly adverse
affects on economic activities depending on water availability, such as agriculture, energy, etc and with
those, adverse affects on the development and way of life in the SEE countries.
The CCFAP that was approved by the Joint Statement by the Ministers responsible for environment of
the Republic of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro and the Republic
of Serbia on combating climate change in South East Europe, during the Regional conference held in
Sarajevo in November 14, 2008, recognized the importance of regional approach. Such approach will
ensure to the SEE countries ability to manage and mitigate risks and uncertainties in water resources.
Similarly, analyses under the Initial National Communication (INC) of the Republic of Serbia shows
that in the period 1950–2004, there was an increase in mean annual temperatures in almost all parts of the
Republic of Serbia. Compared to the period 1961–1990, the period 1971–2000 was warmer in most parts
of the Republic of Serbia by 0.7°C. In the far southeast of the country this difference was negative, –
0.4°C. In the period 1950–2004, most of the territory of the Republic of Serbia was characterized by a
positive precipitation trend.
Assessment of climate change in the future obtained by regional climate model integrations show that
further annual mean temperature increase can be expected. According to A1B scenario, increase in
temperature, over the territory of the Republic of Serbia, for the period 2001–2030 is from 0.8 to 1.1°C,
whilst in case of A2 scenario this increase for the period 2071–2100 is from 3.4 to 3.8°C. In case of A1B
scenario, change in precipitation in the first thirty years of this century would have minor increase from
+5% over most of the area, comparing to reference period 1961–1990. According to A2 scenario, during
last thirty years of this century over the territory of the Republic of Serbia deficit in annual precipitation
would exist with maximum of –15%.
Also, preliminary assessment of climate change effects on the water resources, in the INC, indicate that
a decrease of water flow on the national level, is to be expected in the forthcoming period (up to 2100).
The results of numerical models indicate that the average annual discharge in the Republic of Serbia will
drop by 12.5% until 2020 and by 19% until 2100. Since these assessments are preliminary, need for
further research on the impacts of climate change on the water resources is necessary, as is the adoption of
a detailed programme of adaptation measures.
Increasingly frequent and intensive droughts in the past two decades have caused great damage to
Serbian agriculture, as it is shown in the INC. According to the evaluation of drought impacts on the crop
yield the average drop in yield was 40.9% in comparison to the average annual yield in the years without
drought. Bearing in mind the projected increase in air temperature and decrease in precipitation, it was
concluded that agricultural production will be very vulnerable. Assessments obtained from crop
production models show that in second half of this century drop in yield for some crops can be expected to
be up to 10%. It should be mentioned that agriculture has been traditionally considered to be one of the
key sectors contributing to economic development of the Republic of Serbia. Agriculture sector employs a
large number of people, whether directly or indirectly, significantly contributes to the country’s revenues
from international trade, provides food–supply safety to the population and enables rural development and
economic balance. The sector of agriculture traditionally employs more than 10% of working age
population and contributes with 26% to the country’s export revenues.
Therefore, analysis done during the process of development of the CCFAP-A and the INC confirmed
that inadequate climate conditions caused by further increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation and
other changes in climate system in the future would have even more negative impacts and consequences
on water resources and agriculture in the Republic of Serbia.
Existing risks could be reduced by implementing specific adaptation policies and measures, for which
development of National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture, especially in vulnerable areas and river basins is
Objectives (specific in comparison to the general one outlined in the ToR)
Overall project objective is contribution to sustainable development of the country through increasing of
capacities for, and implementation of adaptation related actions in water management and agriculture
Specific objectives are:
Assessment of climate change impact on the water resources regime, including ground and surface
water quantity and quality;
Identification of the basins likely to be altered in significant ways by climate change;
Identification of uncertainties and risk factors in managing water resources in identified areas;
Assessment of climate change impact on the agriculture sector in identified areas;
Assessment of impacts of water resources regime changes;
Identification of uncertainties and risk factors in managing agricultural production, especially food
production, in vulnerable river basins;
Formulation of adaptation strategies and measures for an integrated water resources management
in vulnerable river basins;
Formulation of adaptation strategies and measures for agriculture sector in vulnerable river basins.
Main foreseen activities (combination and specification of the compulsory activities; integration – if foreseen – of
1. Establishment of data base
1.1. Identification of vulnerable areas and river basins;
1.2. Collection of water resources/hydrological, meteorological, water use, and other data from the
selected areas/river basins and the creation of a database;
1.3. Collect data on extreme weather occurrences and disasters connected with climate change, including
information on damage in the agriculture, in vulnerable areas and river basins;
1.4. Establishment of database for both sectors.
2. Assessment of impacts on water resources
2.1. Selection of climate and hydrological models to be used for (a) downscaled simulation of plausible
future climate change scenarios and (b) defining hydrological response of the selected areas/river basins to
the simulated climate change scenarios;
2.2. Running selected climate and hydrological models in all the selected river basins;
2.2. Establishment of the degree to which various areas/river are susceptible to, and unable to cope with,
the adverse effects of climate change (by, for example, assigning an adequate 'vulnerability index' to each
analyzed area/river basin).
3. Assessment of impacts on agriculture production in the selected vulnerable areas and river basins
3.1. Research on the impact of climate change on pests and diseases in selected areas and river basins;
3.2. Research on the impact of climate change on crop yields in selected areas and river basins;
3.3. Research on the impact of climate change on agricultural production in selected areas and river basins;
3.4. Establishment of the degree to which agricultural production are susceptible to, and unable to cope
with, the adverse effects of climate change.
4. Development of National adaptation plan
4.1. Development of a list of measures and focused actions for selected vulnerable areas and river basins;
4.2. Assessment of financial needs for all of the listed measures and focused actions,
4.3. Identification of major stakeholders for implementation of measures and actions;
4.4. Prioritization of identified measures and focused actions;
4.5. Development of National adaptation plan.
5. Promotion of the National adaptation plan
5.1.Presentation of the results of the analysis as well as National adaptation plan to key stakeholders in the
water and agriculture sector;
5.2. Presentation of the results of the analysis as well as National adaptation plan to general public and
Expected outputs and results (including the possible additional outputs)
Development of such adaptation plan will:
- Enable the Governments to take action towards the development of a more sustainable society and
- Ensure that population of Serbia build their resilience capacity to the risks and impacts of climate
change through implementation of adaptation actions;
- Contribute to improving of understanding of climate change and its effects;
- Contribute to awareness raising;
- Contribute to developing and strengthening cooperation between stakeholders and different
Partners involved at this stage ERDF
Partners requested to complete ERDF
the consortium Partners
Estimated Total Budget
Estimated duration 24 months
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