A System Simulation for Energy Security Evaluation

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					              A System Simulation for Energy Security Evaluation
                                    Yudha Prambudia
                    Graduate School of System Design and Management
                                     Keio University
           Hiyoshi Campus, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, 223-8526 Japan
                               prambudia.yudha@a6.keio.jp

                                     Masaru Nakano
                    Graduate School of System Design and Management
                                     Keio University
           Hiyoshi Campus, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, 223-8526 Japan
                                   nakano@sdm.keio.jp



Abstract

Energy security is a major concern for many countries because energy demand growth is
unavoidable mainly due to economic and population growth. On the other hand, energy
resources are subject to depletion. Therefore, governments are developing policies to deal
with future energy demand and supply developments.

However, due to increasing complexity of energy security issues, effectiveness of these
policies is becoming difficult to ascertain. Multifaceted relationship between factors of
energy security requires any assessment to be performed from various aspects. A simulation
of energy policy implementation can help decision maker to assess energy security and
design more effective policy.

This paper presents a development of simulation for evaluation of energy security from
several aspects with regards to energy policy. The simulation is developed under a
decomposition-integration framework and built using system dynamics. Four sectors are
considered namely; energy, socio-economy, technology and environment. Energy security
aspects taken into account in this study are availability, efficiency, affordability and
acceptability.

Keywords: Simulation, System Dynamics, Energy Security.

				
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posted:3/27/2013
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